CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX August 15 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 98/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The political crisis has dangerously escalated following a defiant speech by Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem. Speaking from Baalbek, Qassem declared that the government’s disarmament plan is an “American-Israeli order” and warned that Hezbollah “will not surrender its weapons.” He issued a direct threat, stating there would be “no life” in Lebanon if the government attempts to confront the group, and warned that future protests could reach the US Embassy. This speech has effectively rejected the state’s authority and brought the country to the brink of internal conflict, moving beyond the diplomatic clash of the previous days into a direct challenge to the state.

Key Factor: Direct and public threats of conflict against the Lebanese state by Hezbollah’s leadership, creating an exceptionally high risk of civil unrest and political violence.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 60/100 🟡

Status: The risk profile for Mount Lebanon has increased due to the severe escalation in national tensions. Hezbollah’s explicit threats against the state and potential US targets raise the likelihood of politically motivated roadblocks on key arteries connecting Beirut to the mountains. The potential for spillover violence from the capital is now a direct and immediate threat.

Key Factor: The governorate’s stability is directly threatened by the hardening of positions and explicit threats of internal conflict at the national level.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 88/100 🟠

Status: High. The defiant rhetoric from Hezbollah is expected to severely inflame existing tensions in Tripoli and surrounding areas. The city’s deep socio-economic distress and sectarian fault lines make it highly susceptible to being drawn into any national-level confrontation. Qassem’s speech will likely embolden allied factions and antagonize opponents, raising the immediate risk of localized clashes.

Key Factor: The combination of active conflict risk and a high potential for large-scale civil unrest, now fueled by explicit threats of a national internal conflict.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The government’s focus is now entirely consumed by the internal crisis with Hezbollah, further paralyzing its ability to manage the volatile security situation along the Syrian border. The LAF is in an increasingly untenable position, caught between government orders and threats from a powerful domestic actor, which could degrade its operational capacity in peripheral regions like Akkar.

Key Factor: Extreme threat from a porous and actively contested border with Syria, now severely compounded by a national crisis that threatens the cohesion of state security institutions.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 96/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The region, a Hezbollah stronghold, is now the epicenter of the internal confrontation. Naim Qassem’s speech was delivered from Baalbek, signaling the region’s central role in any opposition to the state’s disarmament plan. The risk of both internal conflict and external Israeli military action remains exceptionally high, as Israel will be closely monitoring the internal power struggle.

Key Factor: The region is a primary staging ground for the internal challenge to the state, while remaining under an active and ongoing Israeli military threat.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 98/100 🔴

Status: Critical. This remains a primary conflict zone, both internally and externally. Qassem’s speech from Baalbek has solidified the region’s status as the heart of opposition to the government. The area is on maximum alert for both internal mobilization and potential pre-emptive strikes by Israel. The LAF’s mission here is now fundamentally challenged.

Key Factor: Assessed as a primary active conflict zone and the ideological center of the escalating confrontation with the Lebanese state.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 35/100 🟢

Status: Remains the calmest governorate. However, the explicit threat of civil strife has dramatically increased the risk to all areas of the country. All foreign governments continue to advise against all travel to Lebanon, as a political breakdown could lead to a sudden, country-wide security collapse with no warning.

Key Factor: Localized calm is extremely fragile and entirely dependent on a national security situation that is now on the verge of collapse.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. While no new Israeli strikes were reported overnight, the internal crisis has direct implications for the south. Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm ensures the continuation of conflict conditions. The investigation into the August 9 Wadi Zibqin explosion that killed six LAF soldiers is now fraught with political tension, making any findings explosive.

Key Factor: Active external conflict, combined with a critical internal crisis centered on the role of armed groups operating within the governorate.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. The entire governorate is a primary theater for Israeli military operations. Hezbollah’s defiant stance means its operational posture in the region will be maintained or enhanced, making it a constant target. The internal crisis paralyzes any state-level efforts to de-escalate the situation on the southern front.

Key Factor: Strategic importance for non-state actors makes it a central front for ongoing hostilities, with the risk of internal conflict now layered on top.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

• Location 1: Beirut, particularly areas around government buildings (Grand Serail), Baabda Palace, and the US Embassy in Awkar, due to direct threats from Hezbollah.
• Location 2: The Southern Suburbs of Beirut (Dahieh) and Baalbek, as centers of Hezbollah support and potential mobilization.
• Location 3: The port of Naqoura (South Lebanon), as a recent target of Israeli strikes on civilian infrastructure.
• Location 4: Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District), as the LAF investigation continues under immense political pressure.

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

• Area 1: The Jbeil (Byblos) and Batroun coastal cities. Caveat: Stability is not guaranteed. A nationwide escalation would affect all areas.
• Area 2: The Metn district’s primary residential and commercial zones. Caveat: Subject to risks from roadblocks and a nationwide escalation.
• Area 3: Beirut Central District. Caveat: Avoid all demonstrations. The risk of political violence is now extremely high.

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

• DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The security situation is on the verge of a major internal conflict.
• All travel to South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, Beqaa, Akkar, and Tripoli governorates.
• Any non-essential movement. The risk of internal clashes, in addition to ongoing Israeli military operations, is now exceptionally high.

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

• Hezbollah’s speech is a clear declaration that it will oppose the government’s plan, by force if necessary. The risk of civil strife is the highest it has been in years.
• Prepare for a rapid and severe deterioration. This includes the potential for street clashes, roadblocks, and the collapse of state services.
• Monitor political statements from all sides closely. Avoid all political discussions in public.
• Ensure emergency supplies (food, water, medicine) are sufficient for an extended period of sheltering in place. Confirm your “go-bag” and evacuation plans.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• Immediately suspend all non-essential operations. The direct threat of internal conflict makes staff movement and business continuity untenable.
• Activate crisis management plans. Ensure all staff, particularly international staff, have clear instructions for evacuation or sheltering in place.
• The risk of targeted political action against businesses perceived as being aligned with Western interests has increased.

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

• DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. If you are in Lebanon, you should consider leaving now while commercial options are still available. Airport operations could cease without warning. Consular assistance is extremely limited.

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

• Predicted Index Reading: 99/100
• Forecast Trend: ⬆️ DETERIORATING
• Expected Factors: The country is now in a direct standoff between the state and Hezbollah. The government, backed by the US, must now respond to Naim Qassem’s speech. Any move by the LAF to implement the disarmament plan could be the trigger for conflict. All parties will be watching for the reaction from President Aoun and the international community.
• Preparation Recommendation: All residents and organizations must maintain a maximum state of alert. Be prepared for an imminent and severe escalation of the security situation, including the potential outbreak of widespread civil conflict.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

• This Week’s Average: 98/100
• Change from Last Week: +36 points
• Monthly Trend: Rapidly Deteriorating
• Seasonal Assessment: The security environment has shifted from a dual crisis (external conflict/internal politics) to a singular, all-encompassing confrontation over the state’s sovereignty. The direct threats by Hezbollah’s leadership have pushed the country to the brink of a major internal conflict, overriding all other factors.

🛡️ ABOUT THE CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™

The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ represents Lebanon’s first professional daily security assessment tool. Powered by CIS Security’s 35+ years of trusted protection services, this intelligence platform converts real-time security data into clear, actionable guidance for residents, businesses, and organizations.

• Intelligence Sources: Verified security incidents, military alerts, regional political developments, environmental factors, real-time field intelligence from CIS operations, and professional threat analysis.

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🚨 ESSENTIAL LEBANON EMERGENCY CONTACTS

• Lebanese Red Cross: 140
• Internal Security Forces (Police): 112
• Civil Defense (Fire/Rescue): 125
• Lebanese Armed Forces: 1701

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The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a proprietary intelligence tool developed by CIS Security, Lebanon’s most trusted security service provider since 1990. This index serves as a public service while demonstrating our commitment to community safety and professional security excellence.