CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX September 1 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 92/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The political crisis in the capital remains severely intensified. The UN Security Council’s resolution on August 28 extending UNIFIL’s mandate for a final time until December 31, 2026, with a subsequent “orderly and safe drawdown and withdrawal,” has been a pivotal development, but it is now overshadowed by a political stalemate. Direct talks between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah on disarmament have reportedly stalled, with the Shiite Duo reaffirming their commitment to “defending Lebanon’s sovereignty, dignity and resistance, along with its arms.” This complex mix of diplomatic progress and continued defiance, coupled with ongoing military tensions and direct LAF casualties, sustains an exceptionally high risk of widespread civil unrest.

Key Factor: The political stalemate following the UNIFIL decision and the stalled disarmament talks between the government and Hezbollah have created an extremely volatile environment, maintaining high political tension and a severe risk of civil unrest.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The risk profile for Mount Lebanon has escalated, directly mirroring the intensifying national crisis. The complex investigation into the deaths of the LAF soldiers in Wadi Zibqin continues to fuel national tensions. With the central political crisis in Beirut witnessing a critical UNIFIL decision and the core issues of disarmament still highly contentious, the potential for spillover violence, politically motivated roadblocks, or broader civil disturbances across the governorate is extremely high, demanding constant vigilance.

Key Factor: The governorate’s stability is critically threatened by the rapidly escalating national political crisis, the direct LAF casualties, and its potential for localized spillover, exacerbated by the UNIFIL mandate decision and ongoing disarmament debates.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The national political crisis, severely intensified by the new LAF casualties and the high-stakes political standoff in Beirut (including the UNIFIL mandate outcome), continues to exacerbate existing tensions in Tripoli and the wider North Lebanon region. The deep socio-economic distress and entrenched sectarian fault lines make this area highly susceptible to being drawn into any national-level civil unrest or confrontation, maintaining a high state of alert.

Key Factor: The combination of active conflict risk factors and a heightened potential for large-scale civil unrest due to the intensifying national political instability, now further impacted by the direct LAF casualties and the UNIFIL mandate decision.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The government’s internal paralysis continues to critically undermine the LAF’s ability to manage the extremely volatile security situation along the porous Syrian border. Reports indicate Israeli ground troops raided a site near the Syrian capital (Damascus), highlighting continued cross-border military actions that can impact Lebanese border regions. The foiled ammunition smuggling attempt from Syria towards Lebanese territory in the Al-Qusayr area of Homs on August 24 highlights persistent illicit cross-border activities. Recent skirmishes along the border have killed and wounded both fighters and civilians, highlighting the ongoing threat.

Key Factor: Extreme threat from a porous and actively contested border with Syria, marked by recent cross-border military actions and ammunition smuggling attempts, severely compounded by the national political crisis and strained inter-state relations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The region remains an active conflict zone. Last night, August 31, Israeli airstrikes hit targets in the Beqaa Valley, reportedly targeting a Hezbollah arms depot, causing a large secondary explosion and damaging nearby civilian structures. This indicates a persistent Israeli military threat and a continued high underlying risk of major strikes. The region is a prominent Hezbollah stronghold and a focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament decision, making it highly volatile.

Key Factor: Active and ongoing Israeli military threat in the broader region, compounded by high internal tensions and continued opposition to disarmament efforts, with a new confirmed airstrike as of last night.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴

Status: Critical. This remains a primary conflict zone. The region is a Hezbollah stronghold and a central focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament decision, making it extremely volatile both internally and externally. The escalating national crisis and Hezbollah’s firm stance against disarmament further question the LAF’s mission in the area, potentially emboldening non-state actors. The continued threat of Israeli military operations in the broader Beqaa region persists, maintaining the highest level of alert, with confirmed airstrikes as of last night.

Key Factor: Assessed as a primary active conflict zone with ongoing major military operations and extremely high internal tensions, now exacerbated by the direct political confrontation in Beirut and confirmed military strikes.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 40/100 🟡

Status: Elevated. While remaining relatively calm compared to other governorates, the region’s stability is now under even greater threat due to the direct LAF casualties and the significant UN Security Council decision regarding UNIFIL. All foreign governments continue to advise against travel to any part of Lebanon due to the heightened risk of a sudden, country-wide conflict escalation or a complete breakdown of civil order. This governorate’s calm is entirely precarious.

Key Factor: Localized calm that is entirely dependent on, and increasingly threatened by, the fragile and rapidly deteriorating national security situation, now with direct LAF casualties and the impending UNIFIL drawdown.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. On August 28, the Lebanese army announced that two military personnel were killed and two wounded when an Israeli drone crashed and then exploded in the Ras Al-Naqoura area.

Also on August 28, UNIFIL peacekeepers reported discovering a Hezbollah artillery bunker near the village of Meri, containing a 152mm Russian-made artillery cannon and dozens of “ready to be used” shells. An official Lebanese source confirmed to Arab News that the LAF has completed “more than 80 percent of its mission south of the Litani River, confiscating all types of weapons it finds, without any objection from Hezbollah.” The UN Security Council also renewed UNIFIL’s mandate for a final, time-bound period.

These developments, along with the Amnesty International report (August 26) on widespread destruction and ongoing debates, signify an extremely volatile and active conflict zone.

Key Factor: Direct and fatal LAF casualties from an Israeli drone, UNIFIL’s discovery of active Hezbollah military infrastructure, ongoing direct government talks with Hezbollah on disarmament, and the UNIFIL mandate’s final extension, all contribute to an exceptionally high-risk environment.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. This governorate is directly impacted by the new direct LAF casualties in the neighboring Ras Al-Naqoura area. Last night, August 31, Israeli airstrikes were reported in the Ali al-Taher highlands and the outskirts of Kfar Tibnit, causing fires and damage. This entire governorate remains a primary theater for Israeli military operations and is directly impacted by the political and security fallout from the Wadi Zibqin incident, as well as the broader national disarmament crisis and explicit threats of internal conflict.

Key Factor: Direct LAF casualties in the immediate vicinity, the UNIFIL mandate’s final extension, strategic importance for non-state actors making it a central front for ongoing hostilities and civil unrest, compounded by recent and continued Israeli military actions and the escalating internal political crisis.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

Location 1: Ras Al-Naqoura area (South Lebanon), following the direct and fatal Israeli drone strike on LAF personnel on August 28.

Location 2: The Beqaa Valley, following the Israeli airstrikes on August 31.

Location 3: Beirut, particularly areas around government buildings and diplomatic missions (especially the U.S. Embassy), due to the UNIFIL mandate resolution, continued US pressure, and the ongoing direct government-Hezbollah talks on disarmament.

Location 4: The village of Meri (South Lebanon), following UNIFIL’s discovery of a Hezbollah artillery bunker on August 28.

Location 5: Southern Lebanon generally, following the Amnesty International report on widespread destruction and calls for a war crimes investigation.

Location 6: The northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh, following the Israeli airstrikes on the evening of August 31.

Location 7: The Akkar-Syrian border region, due to ongoing illicit cross-border activities and recent military actions near Damascus.

Location 8: Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District) and surrounding areas, as the LAF investigation into the deadly August 9 explosion continues amidst rising internal tensions and questions about external involvement.

Location 9: Khallat al-Makhafir (South Lebanon), due to the confirmed and ongoing construction of a new Israeli military post inside Lebanese territory.

Location 10: The port of Naqoura (South Lebanon), remaining a site of concern following the August 12 Israeli strike on civilian fishermen.

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

Area 1: The Jbeil (Byblos) and Batroun coastal cities. Caveat: Stability is not guaranteed and highly vulnerable to a nationwide escalation.

Area 2: The Metn district’s primary residential and commercial zones. Caveat: Subject to significant risks from a nationwide escalation and potential spillover.

Area 3: Beirut Central District. Caveat: Avoid all demonstrations, maintain extreme awareness of opportunistic crime, and be prepared for rapid security deterioration.

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The security situation is extremely volatile and has further deteriorated with direct LAF casualties. All governments continue to advise against travel due to the risk of a sudden, country-wide conflict escalation or a complete breakdown of civil order.

All non-essential travel to South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, Beqaa, Akkar, and Tripoli governorates.

Any non-essential movement. The risk of internal clashes, in addition to ongoing Israeli military operations, is now significantly higher and more explicit.

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

The direct LAF casualties from an Israeli drone strike, coupled with the UN Security Council’s decision on UNIFIL’s mandate and ongoing political standoff, means the risk of internal and external conflict is exceptionally high. Prepare for an imminent, rapid, and severe deterioration of the security situation.

Show extreme caution and respect around any military processions or mourning events. Avoid any public discussions about the Wadi Zibqin incident, which is a matter of extreme national sensitivity and currently under intense scrutiny.

Maintain emergency supplies (food, water, medicine) and a “go-bag” with essential documents.

Know the location of the nearest shelter and have a shelter-in-place plan.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

Immediately suspend all non-essential operations. The current crisis poses a severe and immediate threat to staff movement and operational continuity.

Review and test emergency plans for evacuation and sheltering in place. Establish clear communication protocols and alert systems for all staff.

The political paralysis and ongoing unrest will impact all administrative functions and services. Be prepared for potential disruptions to infrastructure and services.

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. Multiple governments advise their citizens not to travel to Lebanon and have stated that their ability to provide consular assistance or evacuation is extremely limited. Commercial flights may be cancelled and the airport could close without notice. The situation is too dangerous.

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 93/100

Forecast Trend: ⚡ VOLATILE

Expected Factors: The country remains in a state of national mourning and severe political crisis, intensified by the direct LAF casualties and the August 31 airstrikes. The implications of the UN Security Council’s final UNIFIL mandate extension and eventual withdrawal will unfold. The ongoing direct government-Hezbollah talks on disarmament and persistent Israeli military activity, including drone strikes and border incidents, are anticipated. The ongoing LAF investigation into the Wadi Zibqin incident and regional instability from cross-border smuggling attempts further compound the situation.

Preparation Recommendation: All residents and organizations must maintain a maximum state of alert and be prepared for an imminent and severe escalation of the security situation, including potential internal clashes.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

This Week’s Average: 92/100

Change from Last Week: +2 points (significant increase due to new LAF casualties, the UNIFIL decision, and confirmed Israeli airstrikes)

Monthly Trend: Rapidly Deteriorating

Seasonal Assessment: The security environment is now defined by a dual crisis: an active external conflict with Israel, significantly escalated by direct and fatal engagement with the Lebanese Armed Forces and the discovery of active military infrastructure; and a severe internal confrontation that has placed the state’s most respected institution at the center of the conflict, now with the added complexity of the UNIFIL mandate’s final extension and stalled talks on disarmament.

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