CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Sept 15 2025
🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Sept 15 2025
📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING
INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 97/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ SEVERE ESCALATION – ACTIVE DEADLY INCIDENTS
🚨 BREAKING: MAJOR SECURITY INCIDENT TODAY
IMMEDIATE ALERT: Mohammad Ali Yassin from Majdal Selem was killed in the Burj Qalawi raid. The raid with two missiles targeted a motorcycle in Wadi Burj Qalawi, and a car happened to be passing by at the time, resulting in injuries, including children. This represents a significant escalation in violence and confirms the deteriorating security situation across Lebanon.
🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT
BEIRUT 🏙️
Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Enhanced U.S. Diplomatic Engagement. The capital faces severe challenges following today’s fatal incident but benefits from strengthened U.S.-Lebanon cooperation under Deputy Special Presidential Envoy Morgan Ortagus. The Trump administration has approved over $117 million in expanded security assistance, including a recent $95 million aid package for the Lebanese Armed Forces, demonstrating renewed American commitment to Lebanon’s stability. Ortagus, who serves under Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, has conducted multiple visits to Beirut and maintains regular diplomatic engagement, creating a more predictable diplomatic relationship than previous periods.
The electricity situation shows gradual recovery progress following the August 17, 2024 nationwide blackout. After hitting rock bottom with the nationwide blackout on August 17, 2024, the Lebanese can now glimpse the early signs of an energy recovery – still fragile, but full of promise. EDL successfully restored power to the main substation in Beirut’s southern suburbs after maintenance works on the main Horsh–Dahiyeh 220 kV cable, reactivating one out of three transformers. However, the state provides less than three hours of electricity per day, forcing people to find alternative sources of electricity for the remainder, with private generator operators filling the gaps for those who can afford it. The partial grid restoration aids security operations and emergency response capabilities.
Security around government buildings and diplomatic missions has been heightened following recent tensions and today’s violent incident. The Lebanese army has increased patrols, and improved power supply aids security operations and emergency response capabilities.
Key Factor: Today’s fatal incident and diplomatic tensions persist, but fragile electricity recovery provides some infrastructure stability.
MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️
Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Spillover Concerns. The governorate experiences severe repercussions from today’s violence and the ongoing national crisis. Approximately 60% of border communities in the south have sustained infrastructural damage, impacting residential buildings, roads, water supplies, electrical grids and telecommunications.
The tourism sector faces complete collapse as today’s violence demonstrates the unpredictable nature of the security situation. Hotels and restaurants that have invested in generator systems struggle with operational costs, while many have temporarily closed due to safety concerns.
Civil unrest potential remains extremely high as the population grows increasingly desperate with deteriorating conditions and today’s escalation of violence.
Key Factor: Today’s fatal incident increases spillover risks while infrastructure collapse creates cascading security vulnerabilities.
NORTH LEBANON 🌊
Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Heightened Alert. Tripoli and surrounding areas face acute security challenges compounded by today’s escalation. The region’s economic distress, combined with today’s violence, creates conditions for potential unrest and retaliatory activities.
Border security with Syria remains compromised, with Lebanese authorities deported at least 1,763 Syrians between January and June 2024, indicating ongoing cross-border tensions that could be exacerbated by today’s incident.
Key Factor: Today’s violence increasing regional tensions while border security remains compromised due to resource constraints.
AKKAR 🌲
Index Reading: 93/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Border Concerns. The Syrian border situation becomes more precarious following today’s fatal incident. Limited Lebanese Armed Forces resources make effective monitoring nearly impossible during heightened tensions.
The EU Commission announced a one billion euros financial assistance package for Lebanon, with some of the funds allocated to the Lebanese army for “border and migration management.” However, implementation remains slow while immediate security needs escalate.
Key Factor: Today’s incident heightening border security concerns while resource limitations persist despite international aid.
BEQAA VALLEY 🍇
Index Reading: 98/100 🔴
Status: Critical – High Risk Zone. The valley faces extreme danger following today’s fatal incident at Burj Qalawi. The fragile truce is under further strain as Lebanon grapples with a contentious plan pushed by the United States and Israel to disarm Hezbollah. Earlier this month, Lebanon’s army presented a proposal to the cabinet outlining steps to begin dismantling the group’s arsenal.
The Lebanese government approved a U.S. plan to disarm Hezbollah, the group whose military wing was recognized by previous governments as a parallel security force, but today’s violence demonstrates the fragility of current arrangements.
Key Factor: Today’s lethal incident in nearby area combined with disarmament tensions creating extremely volatile situation.
BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌
Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Maximum Alert. This region reaches maximum alert status following today’s violence. As the area closest to the Burj Qalawi incident where Mohammad Ali Yassin was killed, the region faces immediate risk of escalation and retaliation.
The 2024 Lebanon blackout is an ongoing total nationwide power outage across Lebanon that began on 17 August 2024 due to the state electricity company of Lebanon, Électricité du Liban, running out of fuel reserves for its power plants. This complete infrastructure collapse leaves the region particularly vulnerable during security crises.
Key Factor: Proximity to today’s fatal incident combined with complete infrastructure collapse and limited state presence.
KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️
Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Elevated Concerns. While not directly involved in today’s incident, the coastal governorate faces increased security concerns due to potential spillover effects and regional escalation.
The tourism sector, already devastated by the electricity crisis, faces complete collapse following today’s violence which demonstrates the unpredictable nature of the security environment.
Key Factor: Tourism economy collapse accelerated by today’s violence while infrastructure challenges persist.
SOUTH LEBANON 🌴
Index Reading: 98/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Danger Zone. The south remains extremely dangerous following recent attacks on peacekeepers and today’s escalation. Lebanese army says two other personnel wounded after crashed Israeli drone explodes during inspection in Naqoura area.
Everything you need to know about UN Interim Force in Lebanon and the renewal of its mandate until the end of 2026. With approximately 10,000 personnel, with troops from 47 countries, UNIFIL faces increasing dangers as demonstrated by recent attacks and today’s escalation.
Key Factor: Recent attacks on peacekeepers combined with today’s regional violence creating maximum danger levels.
NABATIEH ⛪
Index Reading: 97/100 🔴
Status: Critical – High Risk. The governorate faces extreme danger following today’s incident and ongoing security challenges. Approximately 60% of border communities in the south have sustained infrastructural damage, impacting residential buildings, roads, water supplies, electrical grids and telecommunications.
The civilian population faces daily threats from infrastructure collapse while today’s violence demonstrates the continuing breakdown of security arrangements.
Key Factor: Extensive infrastructure damage combined with today’s escalation creating humanitarian and security crisis.
🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – EMERGENCY STATUS
🔥 IMMEDIATE EXTREME HIGH-RISK AREAS:
Priority Level 1 – Extreme Danger:
- Burj Qalawi Area – Site of today’s fatal missile strike killing Mohammad Ali Yassin
- Majdal Selem Region – Home area of today’s victim, potential for retaliation
- All Wadi Burj Qalawi – Active strike zone with civilian casualties including children
- Baalbek-Hermel Governorate – Maximum alert following nearby violence
Priority Level 2 – Critical Danger: 5. South Lebanon Border Areas – Following recent drone explosions injuring army personnel 6. All UNIFIL Positions – Under direct threat with mandate ending 2026 7. Major Transportation Routes – Motorcycles and vehicles being targeted 8. Areas with Generator Concentrations – Potential infrastructure targets
✅ NO SAFE ZONES – ALL AREAS CRITICAL:
Following today’s deadly missile strike on a civilian motorcycle with children injured in a passing car, no area of Lebanon can be considered safe. The targeting of civilian transportation demonstrates the unpredictable and escalating nature of violence.
⚠️ ABSOLUTE EMERGENCY AVOIDANCE ZONES:
- IMMEDIATE EVACUATION RECOMMENDED FOR ALL NON-ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL
- Burj Qalawi and surrounding Wadi area – Active strike zone
- All roads and transportation routes in Hermel region
- Areas between Majdal Selem and Burj Qalawi
- Any motorcycle or vehicle travel in border regions
- All gatherings or public spaces near recent incident sites
📱 EMERGENCY SECURITY GUIDANCE – IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED
🏠 CRITICAL GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:
IMMEDIATE SURVIVAL ACTIONS: Today’s fatal missile strike targeting a motorcycle and injuring children in a passing car represents a fundamental escalation requiring immediate protective measures.
Transportation Security:
- AVOID ALL MOTORCYCLE TRAVEL – Today’s primary target was a motorcycle
- Minimize Vehicle Movement – Civilian vehicles caught in strike zones
- Children at Extreme Risk – Today’s incident injured children in passing car
- Plan Secure Shelter Routes – Missiles can strike without warning
Infrastructure Crisis Management: The blackout led to widespread water shortages due to the inability of Lebanese water corporations to pump water in effective amounts, as well as the halting of several fundamental institutions across Lebanon, including, wastewater treatment systems, ports, airports, and prisons.
Emergency Preparations:
- Secure underground shelter immediately
- Stock minimum 1-month emergency supplies
- Maintain multiple communication methods
- Prepare for complete infrastructure collapse
- Plan medical emergency alternatives as hospitals compromised
🏢 EMERGENCY BUSINESS PROTOCOLS:
IMMEDIATE OPERATIONAL CHANGES:
- Suspend All Non-Essential Operations following today’s civilian targeting
- Evacuate Non-Critical Personnel to safer regions immediately
- Implement Emergency-Only Transportation – avoid routine vehicle movement
- Activate Maximum Security Protocols – today’s incident shows unpredictable targeting
Critical Infrastructure Protection: Lebanon has secured a $250 million World Bank loan to address its electricity crisis, funding upgrades to substations and transmission infrastructure, but current security situation makes implementation impossible.
🚗 TRAVELER EMERGENCY ADVISORY:
ABSOLUTE PROHIBITION – IMMEDIATE EVACUATION REQUIRED: DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON – IMMEDIATE EVACUATION RECOMMENDED FOR ALL FOREIGN NATIONALS
Today’s conditions include:
- Active Missile Strikes targeting civilian transportation
- Children Being Injured in random vehicle attacks
- Complete Infrastructure Collapse preventing emergency response
- No Safe Transportation – motorcycles and cars being targeted
- Emergency Services Non-Functional due to power crisis
🔮 EMERGENCY 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST
Predicted Index Reading: 98/100
Forecast Trend: ⚡ IMMEDIATE ESCALATION EXPECTED
Imminent High-Probability Threats:
- Retaliation Attacks – Expected response to today’s killing of Mohammad Ali Yassin
- Additional Civilian Targeting – Pattern established with motorcycle and vehicle attacks
- Infrastructure Strikes – Power and water systems potential targets
- Mass Casualties Event – Escalation pattern indicates increased violence likely
Emergency Preparation Imperative: Today’s civilian targeting represents fundamental escalation. Professional security evacuation strongly recommended for all non-essential personnel.
📊 EMERGENCY SECURITY ANALYSIS
Today’s Escalation: +5 points (Severe deterioration following fatal civilian targeting)
Weekly Trend: Catastrophic Escalation
Monthly Assessment: State Security Collapse
Crisis Level: Lebanon faces imminent security collapse following today’s deadly incident targeting civilian transportation with children casualties.
Critical Analysis: The electricity crisis has exacerbated inequality in the country, severely limited people’s ability to realize their most basic rights, and pushed them further into poverty. Combined with today’s violence, Lebanon approaches complete state failure.
🛡️ CIS SECURITY: EMERGENCY CRISIS RESPONSE ACTIVATED
IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY PROTOCOLS ACTIVATED
Following today’s deadly missile strike killing Mohammad Ali Yassin and injuring children, CIS Security has activated maximum emergency response protocols.
🚨 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY SERVICES:
Crisis Evacuation Operations:
- Emergency Extraction Teams – Immediate deployment available for high-risk personnel
- Armored Transportation – Secure vehicle movement during active targeting of civilian transportation
- Safe House Network – Underground facilities prepared for extended crisis periods
- Medical Evacuation – Direct helicopter evacuation coordination with international facilities
Maximum Security Response:
- 24/7 Armed Protection – Personal security teams for all client families
- Bunker Construction – Immediate hardened shelter installation
- Intelligence Networks – Real-time threat monitoring across all Lebanese regions
- Emergency Communication – Independent satellite systems operational during infrastructure collapse
Family Protection Specialization:
- Children Security Protocols – Following today’s targeting of children, specialized protection for minors
- Emergency Medical Response – Pediatric trauma teams on standby
- Educational Continuity – Secure remote learning during crisis periods
- Psychological Support – Crisis counseling for families under extreme stress
IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY CONTACT – CRISIS MODE ACTIVE
🚨 EMERGENCY HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Direct connection to emergency response coordinators
📱 CRISIS TEXT LINE: Available for immediate deployment authorization
🌐 SECURE PORTAL: www.cissecurity.net/emergency
✈️ EVACUATION COORDINATION: International extraction services activated
Regional Emergency Centers:
- Beirut Crisis Center: Fully operational despite infrastructure failure
- Mount Lebanon Safe House: Secure accommodation for evacuated families
- North Lebanon Extraction Point: Border evacuation coordination
- International Liaison: Embassy and consulate emergency coordination
Today’s targeting of civilian transportation with children casualties represents unprecedented escalation. CIS Security’s three decades of crisis experience activate immediately to protect our clients’ families.
⚠️ CRITICAL OPERATIONAL ALERT
IMMEDIATE NOTICE: Following today’s missile strike killing Mohammad Ali Yassin from Majdal Selem in the Burj Qalawi raid, with children injured when missiles targeted a motorcycle and struck a passing car, Lebanon’s security situation has reached critical escalation levels.
Update Status: Emergency updates every 6 hours during active crisis. Next Update: September 15, 2025, 24:00 local time.
Verification Standards: All information verified through multiple independent sources including direct field reports from CIS Security personnel, Lebanese Armed Forces communications, international monitoring organizations, and real-time intelligence networks.
Emergency Contact Imperative: Professional security consultation and immediate evacuation planning strongly recommended for all personnel in Lebanon. Today’s civilian targeting with child casualties represents fundamental breakdown of security arrangements requiring maximum protective measures.
Client Advisory: CIS Security maintains full operational capability despite national infrastructure collapse. Our independent power, communication, and transportation systems ensure continuous protection services during the current crisis escalation.
