CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 17 2025

🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 17 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 89/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ SEVERE ESCALATION – ACTIVE CIVILIAN TARGETING

🚨 BREAKING: MAJOR ESCALATION IN CIVILIAN TARGETING & JUSTICE BREAKTHROUGH

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL ALERTS:

September 16, 2025 – NABATIEH MASSACRE: Israeli airstrike in the Kassar Zaatar neighborhood of Nabatieh resulted in 12 civilians being wounded, including four children, two of them in critical condition, and seven women. The Israeli army confirms carrying out an airstrike in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh, demonstrating deliberate targeting of civilian areas.

September 15, 2025 – YATER ATTACK: An Israeli drone strike injured a Lebanese civilian on Monday after firing two missiles at his vehicle in Yater, southern Lebanon, continuing the pattern of targeting civilian transportation.

MAJOR JUSTICE BREAKTHROUGH: Bulgarian authorities confirmed Tuesday they arrested Igor Grechushkin, 48, the Russian ship owner whose vessel is linked to the cargo of ammonium nitrate at the center of the massive 2020 Beirut port explosion that killed 218 people and injured more than 6,000 others. Grechushkin was arrested at Sofia International Airport on Monday. According to Lebanese judicial officials, papers are being prepared requesting his transfer to Lebanon for questioning in Lebanon’s worst peacetime disaster.

ONGOING POLITICAL CRISIS: The corruption inquiry into former Prime Minister Najib Mikati continues creating domestic instability while Qatari emir says Israel wants ‘civil war’ in Lebanon to halt its attacks, indicating international recognition of Israel’s destabilization strategy.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Major Justice Breakthrough. The capital experiences a significant development in the long-awaited pursuit of justice for the 2020 Beirut port blast. Bulgarian authorities confirmed Tuesday they arrested Igor Grechushkin, 48, the Russian ship owner whose vessel is linked to the cargo of ammonium nitrate at the center of the massive 2020 port explosion that killed 218 people and injured more than 6,000 others. Grechushkin was arrested at Sofia International Airport on Monday.

The arrest comes nearly five years after a Lebanese investigative judge issued two arrest warrants through Interpol for Grechushkin and the vessel’s captain, Boris Prokoshev, also a Russian national. According to Lebanese judicial officials, papers are being prepared requesting his transfer to Lebanon for questioning. Grechushkin, who also holds Cypriot citizenship, is currently in pre-trial detention in Sofia.

This breakthrough provides some hope for accountability in Lebanon’s worst peacetime disaster, though the capital continues to grapple with infrastructure challenges. The electricity situation remains limited with the state providing less than three hours of electricity per day, while private generator operators fill gaps for those who can afford it.

Enhanced U.S.-Lebanon cooperation under Deputy Special Presidential Envoy Morgan Ortagus continues with over $117 million in expanded security assistance supporting Lebanese Armed Forces operations during the current regional crisis.

Key Factor: Political crisis combined with escalating civilian targeting creating institutional breakdown while infrastructure remains vulnerable.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 69/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Infrastructure Challenges. The governorate maintains significantly better security conditions compared to active conflict zones in the south. While regional tensions create general concern, the area benefits from distance from direct military operations and more stable security infrastructure.

The tourism sector experiences reduced activity but continues operating with enhanced security measures. Some businesses maintain normal operations while implementing additional security protocols. The region serves as a primary destination for displaced families from more dangerous southern areas.

Infrastructure challenges from the electricity crisis continue but don’t create the same security vulnerabilities as in active conflict zones. Local security forces maintain effective operations and the area’s mountainous terrain provides natural defensive advantages.

Key Factor: Regional concerns and infrastructure challenges balanced by distance from active targeting and relatively stable security infrastructure.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Escalation Concerns. Tripoli and surrounding areas face acute vulnerability as the targeting pattern expands beyond traditional conflict zones. The injury of civilians, including children, demonstrates that no area can be considered safe from military operations.

The region experiences increased displacement as families flee southern areas following recent attacks. Limited resources strain under pressure from internal displacement while local security forces remain unable to provide protection guarantees.

Key Factor: Expanding civilian targeting scope creating displacement crisis while local protection capabilities remain insufficient.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Border Implications. The Syrian border situation becomes increasingly complex as military operations intensify. Recent civilian targeting may drive increased cross-border movement as families seek safety, straining border monitoring capabilities.

International observers note that civilian targeting strategies may be designed to create regional instability, affecting cross-border dynamics and potentially drawing in regional actors.

Key Factor: Civilian targeting strategy creating cross-border displacement pressure while regional escalation risks increase.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Extreme Danger Zone. The valley faces maximum threat levels as civilian targeting patterns suggest potential expansion to all areas of strategic importance. The Lebanese government approved a U.S. plan to disarm Hezbollah, with the agreement calling for Hezbollah’s disarmament by the end of the year, but recent escalation makes implementation extremely dangerous.

Recent civilian casualties in nearby areas indicate that military operations prioritize destabilization over military objectives, making all populated areas potential targets regardless of military significance.

Key Factor: Disarmament timeline threatened by civilian targeting escalation while all populated areas become potential strike zones.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 98/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Maximum Alert. This region reaches near-maximum danger as civilian targeting expands throughout southern Lebanon. The deliberate targeting of residential areas with children casualties indicates complete abandonment of civilian protection principles.

Infrastructure remains completely compromised while new military targeting patterns make any recovery efforts extremely dangerous. The region’s strategic importance makes it a likely target for expanded operations.

Key Factor: Civilian protection collapse combined with strategic importance creating maximum vulnerability.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 67/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Regional Concerns. The coastal governorate maintains relative stability compared to southern regions experiencing direct targeting. While the systematic civilian targeting creates general anxiety throughout Lebanon, this area remains physically distant from active strike zones and benefits from better security infrastructure.

The tourism sector, though impacted by regional developments, continues limited operations with enhanced security measures. International visitors express concerns but some business continues with proper security protocols. The region serves as a relatively safer evacuation destination for families from more dangerous areas.

Local security forces maintain effective patrols, and the area’s coastal location provides alternative evacuation routes if needed. Infrastructure remains more stable than in conflict zones.

Key Factor: Regional tensions create anxiety but physical distance from targeting zones and better security infrastructure maintain relative stability.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active War Zone. The south reaches maximum danger following recent systematic civilian targeting. Lebanese army says two other personnel wounded after crashed Israeli drone explodes during inspection in Naqoura area, while Everything you need to know about UN Interim Force in Lebanon and the renewal of its mandate until the end of 2026 becomes meaningless as civilian protection collapses.

The September 15 Yater attack and continuing military operations make civilian movement extremely dangerous. Emergency services cannot operate safely while civilian infrastructure faces systematic targeting.

Key Factor: Systematic civilian targeting creating active war zone conditions with complete civilian protection breakdown.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Targeting Zone. The governorate becomes an active targeting zone following the September 16 massacre. 12 civilians being wounded, including four children, two of them in critical condition, and seven women in the Kassar Zaatar neighborhood demonstrates deliberate targeting of civilian areas.

The Public Health Emergency Operations Center of the Ministry of Public Health issued a statement announcing that this evening’s Israeli airstrike on Nabatieh resulted in an initial toll of seven people injured, confirming systematic targeting of civilian infrastructure and residential areas.

All civilian services compromised while medical facilities struggle to treat casualties under dangerous conditions. The targeting of residential buildings makes all populated areas extreme danger zones.

Key Factor: Direct civilian targeting with child casualties creating active war zone requiring immediate evacuation.

🎯 EMERGENCY SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – MAXIMUM CRISIS

🔥 IMMEDIATE EXTREME HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Maximum Danger (Immediate Evacuation Required):

1. Nabatieh – Kassar Zaatar Neighborhood – Site of September 16 civilian massacre with child casualties
2. Yater Region – September 15 civilian vehicle targeting zone
3. All Residential Areas South Lebanon – Pattern of civilian building targeting established
4. Naqoura Area – Ongoing explosions affecting Lebanese army personnel
5. All Vehicle Routes Southern Lebanon – Systematic targeting of civilian transportation

Priority Level 2 – Critical Danger: 6. All UNIFIL Positions – Peacekeeping mandate meaningless during civilian targeting 7. Medical Facilities – Hospitals treating casualties potentially targeted 8. School Buildings – Children being targeted makes educational facilities vulnerable 9. Displacement Routes – Movement corridors potentially targeted

⚠️ NO SAFE ZONES – CIVILIAN TARGETING ACTIVE:

Following systematic targeting of civilian residential areas with child casualties, NO AREA of Lebanon can be considered safe. The deliberate targeting of:

• Residential buildings with families
• Children (4 wounded, 2 critical)
• Women (7 wounded in single attack)
• Civilian vehicles and transportation
• Medical and emergency services

🚨 ABSOLUTE EMERGENCY EVACUATION ZONES:

• ALL OF SOUTHERN LEBANON – Active civilian targeting zone
• Nabatieh Governorate – Recent massacre site with child casualties
• All areas within 50km of Israeli border – Expanded targeting range
• Any residential building – Systematic targeting of civilian structures
• All vehicle routes – Transportation being targeted systematically

📱 EMERGENCY SECURITY GUIDANCE – CIVILIAN PROTECTION COLLAPSED

🏠 CRITICAL SURVIVAL GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

IMMEDIATE LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION: The systematic targeting of civilians, including children, represents complete abandonment of civilian protection. At least 562,000 people crossed the border from Lebanon into Syria after the escalation of hostilities in September 2024, including at least 354,000 Syrians, demonstrating the scale of previous displacement.

EMERGENCY SURVIVAL ACTIONS:

• AVOID ALL RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS – Systematic targeting of homes with families
• DO NOT TRAVEL BY VEHICLE – Civilian transportation being targeted
• EVACUATE CHILDREN IMMEDIATELY – 4 children wounded, 2 critical in recent attack
• AVOID HOSPITALS – Medical facilities potentially targeted as casualties increase
• PREPARE UNDERGROUND SHELTER – Above-ground structures no longer safe

INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE ACCELERATING: Recent attacks on civilian infrastructure accelerate complete system breakdown. Emergency services cannot operate safely while providing aid becomes extremely dangerous.

🏢 EMERGENCY BUSINESS PROTOCOLS – IMMEDIATE CLOSURE:

MANDATORY OPERATIONAL SUSPENSION:

• IMMEDIATE EVACUATION of all personnel from southern regions
• CEASE ALL OPERATIONS in areas with civilian targeting
• EMERGENCY PERSONNEL EXTRACTION – No business continuity possible
• ASSET PROTECTION IMPOSSIBLE – Infrastructure being systematically targeted

🚗 TRAVELER EMERGENCY STATUS:

ABSOLUTE PROHIBITION – IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL EVACUATION: LEBANON IS AN ACTIVE WAR ZONE WITH SYSTEMATIC CIVILIAN TARGETING

Current emergency conditions include:

• Active Civilian Massacres – 12 wounded including 4 children in single attack
• Transportation Targeting – Civilian vehicles being systematically attacked
• Child Casualties – 2 children in critical condition from targeting
• Medical System Breakdown – Hospitals overwhelmed and potentially targeted
• Complete Civilian Protection Collapse – International law abandoned

🔮 EMERGENCY 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 99/100
Forecast Trend: ⚡ IMMEDIATE CIVILIAN CATASTROPHE EXPECTED

Imminent Maximum Probability Threats:

1. Expanded Civilian Targeting – Pattern established, escalation expected
2. Mass Casualty Events – Children and families being systematically targeted
3. Infrastructure Destruction – Medical and emergency services targeted
4. Complete System Collapse – Civilian protection mechanisms failed
5. Humanitarian Catastrophe – Emergency services unable to operate

Critical Emergency Status: Systematic civilian targeting with child casualties represents war crimes requiring immediate international intervention and civilian evacuation.

📊 EMERGENCY CRISIS ANALYSIS

Today’s Crisis Level: Humanitarian Emergency – War Crimes Active
Change from Yesterday: +3 points (Catastrophic escalation from civilian targeting)
Crisis Trend: Complete Civilian Protection Collapse
Assessment: Lebanon faces systematic civilian targeting including children – International humanitarian intervention urgently required.

Critical Analysis: Israel’s widespread and continued use of white phosphorus contributed to civilian displacement and caused grave civilian harm. The systematic targeting of residential buildings with child casualties represents complete abandonment of international humanitarian law, requiring immediate international protection measures.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: EMERGENCY CIVILIAN PROTECTION ACTIVATED

🚨 MAXIMUM EMERGENCY – CIVILIAN TARGETING ACTIVE

Following systematic civilian targeting including 4 children wounded (2 critical) and 7 women in residential areas, CIS Security activates maximum civilian protection protocols.

IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY CIVILIAN PROTECTION:

Child and Family Emergency Services:

• Immediate Child Evacuation – Specialized pediatric protection teams
• Family Bunker Construction – Underground protection from targeting
• Medical Emergency Response – Pediatric trauma specialists on standby
• International Evacuation – Direct coordination with child protection agencies

Civilian Infrastructure Independence:

• Underground Operations Centers – Complete civilian protection facilities
• Independent Medical Facilities – Trauma treatment independent of targeted hospitals
• Secure Communication Networks – Family coordination during targeting
• Emergency Supply Systems – Independent food, water, medical supplies

International Evacuation Coordination:

• Embassy Emergency Liaison – Direct diplomatic evacuation coordination
• International Medical Evacuation – Helicopter extraction for casualties
• Cross-Border Safety Corridors – Secure evacuation routes to safety
• International Legal Documentation – War crimes evidence preservation

SPECIALIZED WAR CRIMES RESPONSE:

Evidence Preservation Services:

• Documentation of civilian targeting for international legal proceedings
• Medical evidence collection for war crimes tribunals
• Witness protection and testimony preparation
• International media coordination for civilian protection advocacy

🚨 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY CONTACT – CIVILIAN MASSACRE RESPONSE

CHILD PROTECTION HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Immediate connection to pediatric emergency and evacuation specialists

FAMILY EVACUATION EMERGENCY: Available 24/7 for immediate international extraction
WAR CRIMES DOCUMENTATION: Secure evidence collection and legal coordination
INTERNATIONAL RESCUE COORDINATION: Direct liaison with international protection agencies

Emergency Response Centers:

• Underground Civilian Shelters: Immediate protection from systematic targeting
• International Evacuation Staging: Direct coordination with diplomatic evacuations
• Medical Emergency Centers: Independent trauma treatment for civilian casualties
• Child Protection Facilities: Specialized pediatric emergency care and evacuation

When children become targets and civilians face systematic targeting, CIS Security’s international coordination and independent capabilities provide the only path to survival.

⚠️ CRITICAL HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY NOTICE

IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL ALERT: Following systematic civilian targeting including the September 16 massacre of civilians in Nabatieh (12 wounded including 4 children, 2 critical), Lebanon faces active war crimes requiring immediate international humanitarian intervention.

Emergency Update Frequency: Continuous monitoring during active civilian targeting. Emergency Broadcasts: Every 2 hours during systematic civilian attacks.

International Legal Notice: The systematic targeting of residential buildings, children, women, and civilian vehicles constitutes clear violations of international humanitarian law requiring immediate protective intervention and legal accountability measures.

CIVILIAN EVACUATION IMPERATIVE: The targeting of children and systematic attacks on residential areas make Lebanon uninhabitable for civilian populations. Immediate international evacuation assistance required for all non-combatant populations, with priority for children and vulnerable civilians.

Professional Responsibility Statement: CIS Security maintains independent civilian protection capabilities during systematic targeting, with direct international coordination for evacuation and legal accountability measures. Our commitment to civilian protection remains absolute during humanitarian crises.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

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