CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Sept 20 2025

CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 20 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 76/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ HIGH ALERT – CASUALTIES MOUNTING

🚨 BREAKING: FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 20 DEVELOPMENTS

DEADLY STRIKES TODAY:

• TEBNIN HOSPITAL ATTACK: Israeli drone strike killed 1, injured 11 at hospital entrance
• Victim identified: Hussein Hassan Ramadan from Taybeh
• ANSAR STRIKE: Water tanker targeted, 1 killed, 3 injured
• Location: Between Kawthariyeh al-Raz and Ansar
• Gaza spillover: 43 killed in Gaza City since dawn

HEZBOLLAH DEFIANT – QASSEM SPEECH (September 19):

• “Resistance will continue despite US and Israeli pressure”
• “Israel is the danger, not the resistance”
• Called on Saudi Arabia to “open new page with resistance”
• Warned against “strife” over disarmament: “saved Lebanon from August 5”
• Thanked God for “change of course September 5”

ARMY STATEMENT THURSDAY:

• Israeli strikes “hindering disarmament plan implementation”
• 4,500+ ceasefire violations documented since November
• Deployment south of Litani River obstructed

PRESIDENT AOUN CONDEMNS:

• “Israel does not respect mechanism or sponsoring countries”
• “Silence is dangerous failure encouraging attacks”
• “Blatant violation of Resolution 1701”

US ENVOY ARRIVING:

• Morgan Ortagus in Beirut for pressure on army
• Expected to demand expedited disarmament
• Johnson: Army doing “admirable work but more needed”

🌡️ REAL-TIME GOVERNORATE SECURITY STATUS

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 70/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Political Crisis Intensifying

Capital relatively calm but tensions building as US pressure mounts. Hezbollah supporters planning demonstrations against disarmament. September 25 Nasrallah anniversary with Raouche Rock projection controversy looming.

Economic indicators: Lebanese pound stable at 89,500 LBP/USD. Inflation dropped to 14.3% (July) from 221% peak. World Bank projects 4.7% growth 2025 but cumulative decline 40% since 2019. Electricity 2-4 hours daily. Banking restrictions continue.

Political dynamics volatile with 5 Shia ministers walking out of cabinet. Qassem’s implicit threats of violence if disarmament forced.

Key Factor: Disarmament showdown approaching with US visit.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 56/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Economic Strain

Region avoiding direct strikes but economic pressure mounting. Tourism struggling at 30% capacity. Solar installations providing alternative power at 450 MW. Banking reforms slow with new Central Bank governor Souaid attempting stabilization.

Real estate transactions continue as dollar holders seek value preservation. Starlink internet operational providing connectivity.

Key Factor: Economic hub status threatened by national crisis.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 61/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Security Operations

Tripoli experiencing relative calm after major drug busts. 64 million Captagon pills seized in recent operations. Pope Leo XIV visit end November providing hope.

Army checkpoints increased. Cross-border smuggling disrupted but networks adapting. Poverty at 80% driving desperation.

Key Factor: Drug trafficking crackdown vs poverty pressures.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 64/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Border Tensions

Syrian border stable since March ceasefire. August Yammoune Captagon facility destruction marks progress. Cross-border movement continues despite controls.

Local economy dependent on smuggling. Army presence increased but enforcement selective.

Key Factor: Border security improving but smuggling essential for survival.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Strike Zone

Active targeting despite ceasefire. Infrastructure devastated – 82% electricity facilities destroyed. Agricultural sector collapsed. Humanitarian access severely restricted.

September 8 strikes killed 5 in Hermel/Labweh. IDF claiming Radwan Force targets.

Key Factor: Strategic corridor under constant attack.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Military Operations

Primary Israeli target zone. Infrastructure non-functional. Population dependent on generators and water trucking. Hezbollah presence despite army plans.

Multiple strikes reported with casualties. Area essentially uninhabitable for civilians.

Key Factor: Frontline of military confrontation.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 51/100 🟡
Status: Moderate – Relative Stability

Best conditions nationwide but strained by displaced populations. Infrastructure more reliable with 8-12 hours electricity. Tourism operating minimally.

Coastal areas serving as refuge overwhelming local resources.

Key Factor: Safe haven creating resource crisis.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – ACTIVE WAR ZONE

TODAY’S ATTACKS: Tebnin hospital strike killed 1, injured 11. Ansar water tanker hit.

Israel maintains 5+ positions indefinitely. Daily violations including strikes, demolitions, targeted killings. 22 killed January 26 attempting returns. Infrastructure destroyed.

Key Factor: Active military operations with civilian casualties.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Primary Target

Continued strikes on alleged Hezbollah infrastructure. Over 27% buildings destroyed Marjayoun district. 60 schools destroyed. Healthcare collapsed.

Population displacement near total in border villages.

Key Factor: Systematic destruction preventing returns.

🎯 IMMEDIATE DANGER ALERTS – SEPTEMBER 20

🔥 ACTIVE KILL ZONES NOW:

EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY:

1. TEBNIN – Hospital area under attack
2. ANSAR – Active drone strikes
3. Kawthariyeh al-Raz – Strike corridor
4. Ain al-Mazrab road – Drone activity
5. All southern hospitals – Potential targets

EXTREME DANGER TODAY:

• Any vehicle in southern Lebanon
• Water infrastructure/tankers
• Medical facilities and ambulances
• Alleged “Hezbollah infrastructure”
• Main roads south of Litani

⚠️ INCIDENTS LAST 24 HOURS:

September 20 (TODAY):

• 0900: Tebnin hospital drone strike
• 1000: Ansar water tanker hit
• 1100: Multiple casualties confirmed
• Ongoing: Evacuation of wounded

September 19:

• Qassem speech defying disarmament
• Army statement on violations
• President condemns Israeli attacks
• US envoy arrival announced

📱 CRITICAL SAFETY INSTRUCTIONS – FRIDAY

🏠 RESIDENTS – IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:

SOUTHERN LEBANON – EXTREME DANGER:

• AVOID all hospitals/medical facilities
• NO vehicle movement unless essential
• Stay away from water infrastructure
• Keep underground shelter ready
• Monitor drone activity constantly

BEIRUT – PREPARE FOR UNREST:

• Hezbollah demonstrations expected
• Stock 2-week supplies NOW
• Secure $2000 cash minimum
• Prepare multiple evacuation routes
• Charge all devices, download offline maps

ESSENTIAL PREPARATIONS:

• Fill all water containers
• Secure medications for 1 month
• Prepare go-bags for entire family
• Know nearest bomb shelter
• Have passport/documents ready

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS – CRITICAL:

IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENTS:

• Southern operations CEASE NOW
• All personnel evacuate south
• Activate full remote protocols
• Document all losses
• Prepare for extended closure

ECONOMIC REALITY TODAY:

• Exchange: 89,500 LBP/USD
• Inflation: 14.3% (moderating)
• GDP: -40% since 2019
• Banking: Severe restrictions
• Power: 2-4 hours only

🚗 MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS – LIVE:

ABSOLUTELY NO TRAVEL:

• Southern Lebanon – lethal force authorized
• Hospitals/medical facilities
• Water infrastructure areas
• Main highways south

EXTREME CAUTION:

• Beirut potential protest zones
• All checkpoints – long delays
• Fuel stations – shortages
• Border areas

🔮 24-72 HOUR FORECAST

Predicted Index: 78-83/100
Trend: ⬆️ ESCALATION EXPECTED

Critical Developments Expected:

1. US envoy confrontation – Pressure vs resistance
2. More civilian strikes – Pattern escalating
3. Hezbollah response – Potential retaliation
4. Mass protests – Against disarmament
5. Infrastructure targeting – Hospitals, water

Major Risks Weekend:

• Civil strife over disarmament
• Israeli expansion of targets
• Mass casualty event possible
• International intervention unlikely
• Humanitarian catastrophe deepening

📊 GROUND TRUTH ANALYSIS

Military Reality:

• 4,500+ violations since ceasefire
• Daily strikes killing civilians
• 5+ Israeli positions occupied permanently
• Lebanese Army unable to deploy
• UN monitoring completely ineffective

Political Crisis:

• Disarmament deadline: End 2025 (US demand)
• Hezbollah position: “Will not surrender”
• Cabinet split: 5 ministers walked out
• US pressure: Ortagus arriving for confrontation
• Qassem warning: Violence if forced

Economic Indicators:

• Currency: Stabilized at 89,500 LBP/USD
• Inflation: Down to 14% from 221%
• GDP loss: 40% since 2019
• Poverty: 80% of population
• Reconstruction: $11 billion needed

Humanitarian Emergency:

• Casualties today: Multiple dead/wounded
• Displaced: 100,000+ unable to return
• Healthcare: Collapsed in south
• Education: 1.5 million affected
• Infrastructure: Systematically destroyed

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: PROTECTING YOU AS SITUATION DETERIORATES

MAXIMUM ALERT PROTOCOLS ACTIVATED

With civilian casualties mounting and US confrontation looming, CIS Security provides critical protection:

TODAY’S EMERGENCY SERVICES:

Medical Evacuation Teams:

• Trauma response for strike victims
• Hospital alternative locations
• Combat medic teams deployed
• Helicopter evacuation ready
• Cross-border medical transfer

Strike Zone Operations:

• Real-time drone monitoring
• Pre-strike intelligence network
• Rapid extraction capabilities
• Safe corridor navigation
• Casualty documentation

Executive Protection – Critical:

• Armored vehicles operational
• Close protection specialists
• Safe house network expanded
• International extraction ready
• Diplomatic liaison active

Facility Hardening:

• Blast mitigation immediate
• Underground shelter preparation
• Generator security 24/7
• Perimeter defense enhanced
• Panic room activation

SPECIALIZED CAPABILITIES:

Intelligence Operations:

• Strike pattern prediction
• Drone tracking systems
• Threat assessment real-time
• Early warning network
• Military liaison channels

Crisis Response Teams:

• 15-minute deployment Beirut
• 30-minute Mount Lebanon
• Strike zone extraction
• Family reunification
• Insurance documentation

🚨 EMERGENCY HOTLINE ACTIVE

CRISIS LINE: +961-3-539900
Immediate response ALL emergencies

WhatsApp: Monitored 24/7 GPS Tracking: Active for clients Safe Zones: Teams pre-positioned

Response Capability:

• Strike zones: Immediate if accessible
• Beirut: 10 minutes
• Mount Lebanon: 15 minutes
• Medical: Trauma teams ready

When civilians become targets, CIS Security shields you.

⚠️ URGENT WARNING – SITUATION CRITICAL

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES MOUNTING – Hospital and water infrastructure now targets.

TODAY’S REALITY:

• Medical facilities under attack
• Water tankers being struck
• Civilian vehicles targeted
• No safe zones in south
• International law meaningless

HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE:

• Hospitals unable to function
• Water systems destroyed
• Children at extreme risk
• Mass displacement continuing
• No protection available

POLITICAL CRISIS IMMINENT:

• US envoy arriving for showdown
• Hezbollah threatening violence
• Government may collapse
• Civil conflict possible

Next Update: Every 2 hours or immediately if major incident

Your Life Depends On Accurate Information

🔍 CIS SECURITY LEBANON – WHEN THE STATE FAILS

35 Years Protecting Lebanon Through Every Crisis

Today’s hospital attack proves nowhere is safe. While the government debates and the world watches, CIS Security acts to protect those who need it most.

Why CIS When It Matters: ✓ Only firm operating in active strike zones ✓ Direct military and diplomatic channels ✓ Medical evacuation capability proven ✓ 35-year network of safe locations ✓ International extraction partnerships ✓ Combat-experienced protection teams

Our Promise: We don’t abandon clients when danger peaks.

📞 Emergency: +961-3-539900
💬 WhatsApp: 24/7 monitored
🌐 Portal: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Crisis: info@cissecurity.net

When hospitals become targets, CIS Security becomes your shield.