CIS Lebanon Security Index July 12 2025
CIS Lebanon Security Index July 12 2025
🇱🇧CIS Lebanon Security Index July 12 2025
📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY METER READING
METER LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL (90–100): Avoid non-essential travel
- TODAY’S OVERALL READING: 93/100
- TREND: 📈 RISING / ⚡ VOLATILE
🌡️ REGIONAL SECURITY TEMPERATURE CHECK
Governorate-by-Governorate Breakdown
BEIRUT 🏙️ - Reading: 68/100 🟡
- Status: The capital is tense following President Joseph Aoun’s declaration that Lebanon seeks “peace, not normalization” with Israel and that the state’s monopoly on arms is “final”. This follows a Lebanese Army warning about Israeli intelligence using mobile apps to recruit collaborators.
- Key Factor: High national political tension and active counter-intelligence warnings.
MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️ - Reading: 45/100 🟢
- Status: Conditions remain relatively calm, though the Lebanese Army continues internal security operations, arresting seven undocumented Syrian nationals in the Metn district on Friday. The governorate continues to host the largest percentage of internally displaced persons (37%).
- Key Factor: General stability, but impacted by the national security and economic crises.
NORTH LEBANON 🌊 - Reading: 91/100 🔴
- Status: The security situation remains critical following the July 8 Israeli drone strike near Tripoli that killed three people and wounded thirteen. The Lebanese Army conducted raids on Friday, arresting 31 undocumented individuals in the Koura district and 18 at the Madfoun checkpoint.
- Key Factor: Aftermath of the recent assassination and the establishment of a new, active conflict zone far from the southern border.
AKKAR 🌲 - Reading: 93/100 🔴
- Status: The risk level is critical due to the governorate’s proximity to the Tripoli strike and the porous border with Syria. The July 8 attack validates long-standing intelligence about the presence of extremist elements and high potential for instability.
- Key Factor: Extreme latent threat validated by the nearby assassination; high risk from border porosity and armed group presence.
BEQAA VALLEY 🍇 - Reading: 82/100 🟠
- Status: No new strikes were reported in the last 24 hours, but the region remains a high-risk zone due to its strategic military importance, the confirmed presence of non-state armed groups, and recent Israeli strikes on July 7.
- Key Factor: High concentration of Hezbollah infrastructure and proximity to the Syrian border.
BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌 - Reading: 85/100 🟠
- Status: High risk persists following Israeli strikes on July 7. The area is a known hub for illicit activities and contains a heavy presence of armed groups, making it highly volatile.
- Key Factor: Recent Israeli military activity and entrenched presence of non-state actors.
KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️ - Reading: 38/100 🟢
- Status: This remains the calmest governorate with no specific security incidents reported. It is considered relatively safe for normal activities.
- Key Factor: No direct threats; primary risks are indirect and related to national instability.
SOUTH LEBANON 🌴 - Reading: 97/100 🔴
- Status: Active and intensifying conflict zone. Tensions remain high following the July 10 fatal drone strike in Mansouri and clashes between residents and a UNIFIL patrol in Aitat. Israel’s admission of ground incursions continues to define the threat landscape.
- Key Factor: Active conflict with targeted killings, admitted ground incursions, and rising civil-military tensions.
NABATIEH ⛪ - Reading: 98/100 🔴
- Status: Active conflict zone. An Israeli drone strike on a car near al-Numairiya on Friday killed one person, identified as Muhammad Hassan Shoaib, and wounded five others. Israel claimed the individual was involved in weapons smuggling.
- Key Factor: New targeted assassination via drone strike, confirming the region as a primary kinetic theater.
🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY SNAPSHOT
🔥 HOTSPOTS TO WATCH: - Location 1: Al-Numairiya (Nabatieh District): Site of a fatal drone strike on a car on Friday, July 11.
- Location 2: Mansouri (Tyre District): Site of a fatal drone strike on a motorcycle on Thursday, July 10.
- Location 3: Aitat (Tyre District): Site of a clash between residents and UNIFIL on Thursday, July 10, indicating high ground-level tension.
✅ SAFE ZONES: - Area 1: Jbeil & Batroun: Coastal cities north of Beirut remain calm with no reported incidents.
- Area 2: Central Mount Lebanon: Core administrative and residential areas are currently stable, though subject to internal security operations.
- Area 3: Achrafieh & Hamra (Beirut): These central neighborhoods remain operational but require heightened situational awareness due to national tensions.
🇱🇧CIS Lebanon Security Index July 12 2025- AVOID TODAY:
- All areas south of the Litani River: An active and unpredictable war zone with assassinations, ground incursions, and civil-military clashes.
- All of North Lebanon and Akkar Governorates: The security environment is extremely volatile following the recent deadly airstrike.
- The Bekaa Valley: High risk of military activity and presence of armed groups.
📱 SECURITY TIPS FOR TODAY - 🇱🇧CIS Lebanon Security Index July 12 2025
- 🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:
- Nationwide: The Lebanese Army has warned that Israeli intelligence is using suspicious mobile applications and social media to recruit collaborators. Exercise extreme caution with unsolicited online contact.
- In the South: The threat is confirmed to be both air and ground-based. With ongoing Israeli ground operations and targeted killings, the risk is extreme.
- Property Crime: The severe economic crisis continues to fuel opportunistic crime. Secure homes and vehicles, and remain vigilant with personal belongings.
🏢 FOR BUSINESSES: - Ground Operations Alert: The confirmation of Israeli ground incursions adds a new layer of risk to all operations in the South. All physical assets and personnel are at extreme risk.
- Supply Chain Collapse: Logistics through the North, South, and Bekaa are critically compromised. Activate all contingency plans and expect severe, prolonged disruptions.
- Staff Safety: Immediately halt all travel for staff to North, Akkar, South, Nabatieh, and Bekaa governorates. Reinforce emergency communication protocols.
🚗 FOR TRAVELERS: - Do Not Travel: All foreign government advisories recommend against any travel to Lebanon. The situation is volatile and can escalate without warning.
- UNIFIL Incident: The clash between civilians and UNIFIL peacekeepers on July 10 highlights the extreme risk to any international personnel on the ground, even those with a peacekeeping mandate.
- No Safe Corridors: With ground incursions in the south and airstrikes in the far north, no travel routes can be considered safe.
🔮 TOMORROW’S FORECAST - Predicted Meter Reading: 95/100
- Forecast Trend: 📈 RISING / ⚡ VOLATILE
- Expected Factors: The security situation is expected to deteriorate further. The primary drivers will be potential retaliation for the ongoing assassinations and the now-public Israeli ground operations. President Aoun’s firm stance on the state’s monopoly on arms and PM Salam’s call to renew the UNIFIL mandate add to the political pressure.
- Preparation Tip: Prepare for a prolonged period of high-intensity conflict. Ensure you have a minimum of 10 days of essential supplies (food, water, medicine, fuel) and a tested communication plan with family and contacts.
- 🇱🇧CIS Lebanon Security Index July 12 2025
- WEEKLY SECURITY TRENDS
- This Week’s Average: 90/100
- Change from Last Week: +12 points
- Monthly Trend: Worsening. The security situation is in a state of rapid decline. The conflict has expanded from a contained southern front to include assassinations in the far north and now, officially admitted Israeli ground incursions in the south. This marks a systematic dismantling of the November 2024 ceasefire and a move towards a wider, more unpredictable conflict.
🛡️ ABOUT THE CIS Lebanon Security Index
The CIS Lebanon Security Index is Lebanon’s first daily, data-driven security assessment. Powered by 35+ years of trusted protection, this tool converts real-time intelligence into a clear, accessible security index.
Based on: - Verified security incidents
- Military & government alerts
- Regional political factors
- Environmental conditions
- Real-time field intelligence
- Professional threat analysis
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CIS Lebanon Security Index July 12 2025 / fully reported by Carlos Kfoury CEO and Editor
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