CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX August 14 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 98/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The capital is reeling from a direct political confrontation following the visit of Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, on August 13. In a tense meeting, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun explicitly told Larijani that Beirut rejects foreign interference and that it is “forbidden for anyone… to bear arms and to use foreign backing as leverage.” Larijani publicly retorted that the US, not Iran, was “dictating plans and deadlines” and called on Lebanon to “appreciate Hezbollah.” This high-level diplomatic clash has severely deepened the political crisis, with Hezbollah sources threatening protests against an upcoming visit by US envoy Tom Barrack. The risk of politically motivated civil unrest is now exceptionally high.

Key Factor: A severe and public diplomatic confrontation between the Lebanese state and Iran over Hezbollah’s weapons, creating a high-risk environment for internal conflict.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 60/100 🟡

Status: The risk profile for Mount Lebanon remains elevated due to the national crisis. The deaths of the LAF soldiers have significantly increased national tensions, and the potential for spillover violence or politically motivated roadblocks stemming from the crisis in Beirut remains a direct and immediate threat.

Key Factor: The governorate’s stability is directly threatened by the escalating national political crisis.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 88/100 🟠

Status: High. The national political crisis, now intensified by the deaths of LAF soldiers and the high-stakes diplomatic standoff in Beirut, is expected to severely exacerbate existing tensions in Tripoli. The deep socio-economic distress and sectarian fault lines make the area highly susceptible to being drawn into any national-level civil unrest.

Key Factor: The combination of active conflict risk and a high potential for large-scale civil unrest.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The government’s internal paralysis undermines the LAF’s ability to manage the extremely volatile security situation along the porous Syrian border. The national crisis adds another layer of instability to an already precarious region.

Key Factor: Extreme threat from a porous and actively contested border with Syria, now compounded by the national political crisis.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 96/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The region remains an active conflict zone. Low-altitude Israeli drone flights were observed over Baalbek on August 12. The underlying risk of major Israeli strikes, similar to the massive attacks on July 31, remains extremely high. The region is a Hezbollah stronghold and a focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament decision.

Key Factor: Active and ongoing Israeli military threat, compounded by high internal tensions.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 98/100 🔴

Status: Critical. This remains a primary conflict zone. The region is a Hezbollah stronghold and a focal point of opposition to the government’s decision, making it extremely volatile both internally and externally. The national crisis has put the LAF’s mission in question, potentially emboldening non-state actors in the region.

Key Factor: Assessed as a primary active conflict zone with ongoing major military strikes and high internal tensions.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 35/100 🟢

Status: Remains the calmest governorate. However, the national crisis poses a significant threat to this stability. All foreign governments advise against travel to any part of Lebanon due to the risk of a sudden, country-wide conflict escalation or a complete breakdown of civil order.

Key Factor: Localized calm that is entirely dependent on the fragile national security situation.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. On August 12, an Israeli airstrike on the fishing port of Naqoura injured two fishermen, one seriously. This attack on a civilian economic target represents a significant violation of the ceasefire. This follows the August 9 explosion in Wadi Zibqin that killed six LAF soldiers, with the army’s investigation ongoing. Israeli forces also continue to construct a new military post inside Lebanese territory at Khallat al-Makhafir.

Key Factor: Active external conflict, including strikes on civilian infrastructure, combined with a critical internal crisis following the deaths of LAF soldiers.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. On August 12, an Israeli drone fired a missile into the village of Nmeirieh. The entire governorate is a primary theater for Israeli military operations and is directly impacted by the political and security fallout from the Wadi Zibqin incident in the neighboring governorate.

Key Factor: Strategic importance for non-state actors makes it a central front for ongoing hostilities and civil unrest.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

• Location 1: Beirut, particularly the airport road and areas around government buildings and diplomatic missions, due to the fallout from the Iranian visit and threats of future protests.
• Location 2: The port of Naqoura (South Lebanon), following the Israeli strike on civilian fishermen on August 12.
• Location 3: Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District) and surrounding areas, as the LAF investigation into the deadly August 9 explosion continues.
• Location 4: Khallat al-Makhafir (South Lebanon), due to the ongoing construction of a new Israeli military post inside Lebanese territory.

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

• Area 1: The Jbeil (Byblos) and Batroun coastal cities. Caveat: Stability is not guaranteed in a nationwide escalation.
• Area 2: The Metn district’s primary residential and commercial zones. Caveat: Subject to risks from a nationwide escalation.
• Area 3: Beirut Central District. Caveat: Avoid all demonstrations and maintain high awareness of opportunistic crime.

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

• DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The security situation is extremely volatile. The combination of active conflict and a severe internal crisis makes the environment exceptionally dangerous.
• All travel to South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, Beqaa, Akkar, and Tripoli governorates.
• Any non-essential movement. The risk of internal clashes, in addition to ongoing Israeli military operations, is now significantly higher.

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

• The deaths of six LAF soldiers is a major turning point. The risk of internal conflict has increased dramatically. Prepare for a rapid and severe deterioration of the security situation.
• Show extreme caution and respect around any military processions or mourning events. Avoid any public discussions about the incident, which is a matter of extreme national sensitivity.
• Maintain emergency supplies (food, water, medicine) and a “go-bag” with essential documents.
• Know the location of the nearest shelter and have a shelter-in-place plan.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• Immediately suspend all non-essential operations. The current crisis poses a severe threat to staff movement and operational continuity.
• Review and test emergency plans for evacuation and sheltering in place. Establish clear communication protocols and alert systems for all staff.
• The political paralysis and ongoing unrest will impact all administrative functions and services.

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

• DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. Multiple governments advise their citizens not to travel to Lebanon and have stated that their ability to provide consular assistance or evacuation is extremely limited. Commercial flights may be cancelled and the airport could close without notice.

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

• Predicted Index Reading: 98/100
• Forecast Trend: ⚡ VOLATILE
• Expected Factors: The country is in a state of national mourning and severe political crisis. The outcome of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani’s meetings in Beirut will be a critical indicator for the direction of the crisis. The government’s disarmament plan is effectively stalled, and a new poll showing 58% of Lebanese oppose the move without a comprehensive defense strategy further complicates the government’s position.
• Preparation Recommendation: All residents and organizations must maintain a maximum state of alert and be prepared for an imminent and severe escalation of the security situation.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

• This Week’s Average: 97/100
• Change from Last Week: +35 points
• Monthly Trend: Rapidly Deteriorating
• Seasonal Assessment: The security environment is now defined by a dual crisis: an active external conflict with Israel and a severe internal confrontation that has now resulted in the deaths of Lebanese soldiers, placing the state’s most respected institution at the center of the conflict.

🛡️ ABOUT THE CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™

The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ represents Lebanon’s first professional daily security assessment tool. Powered by CIS Security’s 35+ years of trusted protection services, this intelligence platform converts real-time security data into clear, actionable guidance for residents, businesses, and organizations.

Intelligence Sources:

• Verified security incidents and threat reports
• Military and government security alerts
• Regional political and security developments
• Environmental and weather-related security factors
• Real-time field intelligence from CIS operations
• Professional threat analysis and assessment

📞 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES

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🚨 ESSENTIAL LEBANON EMERGENCY CONTACTS

Government Emergency Services:

• 🚑 Lebanese Red Cross: 140
• 🚓 Internal Security Forces (Police): 112
• 🔥 Civil Defense (Fire/Rescue): 125 or 175
• 🏥 Emergency Medical Services: 140
• ⚡ Electricité du Liban (EDL): 1707
• 💧 Water Emergency: 1594
• 🛣️ Traffic Control: 1717Military & Security:
• 🪖 Lebanese Armed Forces: 1701
• 🛡️ General Security: 1717
• 🔒 State Security: 1717
• 🌊 Maritime Security: 1625Specialized Services:
• ☎️ Telecom Emergency: 110
• 🏦 Banking Emergency: 1702
• 🆘 General Emergency: 999
• 📞 Directory Assistance: 120

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• 🔔 Emergency Alerts: Real-time security notifications

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: LEBANON’S PREMIER SECURITY AUTHORITY

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The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a proprietary intelligence tool developed by CIS Security, Lebanon’s most trusted security service provider since 1990. This index serves as a public service while demonstrating our commitment to community safety and professional security excellence.