🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ August 17 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 86/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 95/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The political crisis in the capital remains severely intensified, with no signs of de-escalation in the direct verbal confrontation between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah. Following Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem’s public declaration of non-disarmament and the Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s retort regarding threats of civil war on August 15-16, the political chasm continues to deepen. This persistent high-level disagreement underscores the exceptionally high risk of widespread civil unrest, including potential protests directed towards the U.S. embassy, and further destabilizes the government’s authority.

Key Factor: An overt and sustained escalating verbal confrontation between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah over disarmament, now explicitly threatening civil war and creating an exceptionally high-risk environment for internal conflict and civil unrest.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 65/100 🟡

Status: Elevated. The risk profile for Mount Lebanon remains high, directly mirroring the intensifying national crisis. The ongoing, complex investigation into the deaths of the LAF soldiers in Wadi Zibqin continues to fuel national tensions. The heightened political rhetoric from Beirut, including explicit warnings of civil conflict, increases the potential for spillover violence, politically motivated roadblocks, or broader civil disturbances across the governorate, demanding constant vigilance.

Key Factor: The governorate’s stability is directly threatened by the rapidly escalating national political crisis, explicit warnings of internal conflict, and its potential for localized spillover.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 90/100 🟠

Status: High. The national political crisis, severely intensified by the LAF casualties and the high-stakes political standoff in Beirut, continues to exacerbate existing tensions in Tripoli and the wider North Lebanon region. The deep socio-economic distress and entrenched sectarian fault lines make this area highly susceptible to being drawn into any national-level civil unrest or confrontation, maintaining a high state of alert.

Key Factor: The combination of active conflict risk factors and a heightened potential for large-scale civil unrest due to the intensifying national political instability.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The government’s internal paralysis continues to critically undermine the LAF’s ability to manage the extremely volatile security situation along the porous Syrian border. While the influx of new Syrian arrivals has slowed due to increased border controls on the Syrian side, families continue to flee into Lebanon through unofficial border points. Recent skirmishes along the border have killed and wounded both fighters and civilians, including a four-year-old Lebanese girl, highlighting the ongoing threat. Beirut and Damascus have attempted some coordination on border security, but political relations remain strained, compounding the region’s existing instability.

Key Factor: Extreme threat from a porous and actively contested border with Syria, marked by recent skirmishes and ongoing refugee flows, severely compounded by the national political crisis and strained inter-state relations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The region remains an active conflict zone. While no new airstrikes were reported directly within the Beqaa Valley on August 17, the Israeli airstrikes on the northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh on the evening of August 15 indicate continued Israeli military activity in proximity to the Beqaa. The underlying risk of major Israeli strikes, similar to recent severe attacks (e.g., July 31 and earlier August incidents in Baalbek, Nabi Sheet, Brital), remains extremely high. The region is a prominent Hezbollah stronghold and a focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament decision, making it highly volatile.

Key Factor: Active and ongoing Israeli military threat in the broader region, compounded by high internal tensions and continued opposition to disarmament efforts.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. This remains a primary conflict zone. The region is a Hezbollah stronghold and a central focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament decision, making it extremely volatile both internally and externally. The escalating national crisis and Hezbollah’s firm stance against disarmament further question the LAF’s mission in the area, potentially emboldening non-state actors. The continued threat of Israeli military operations in the broader Beqaa region persists, maintaining the highest level of alert.

Key Factor: Assessed as a primary active conflict zone with ongoing major military operations and extremely high internal tensions, now exacerbated by explicit threats of civil conflict from Beirut.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 35/100 🟢

Status: Remains the calmest governorate. However, the rapidly escalating national crisis and Hezbollah’s explicit rejection of disarmament, now met with a direct warning of civil war from the Prime Minister, pose a significant and immediate threat to this localized stability. All foreign governments continue to advise against travel to any part of Lebanon due to the risk of a sudden, country-wide conflict escalation or a complete breakdown of civil order. This governorate’s calm is entirely precarious.

Key Factor: Localized calm that is entirely dependent on, and increasingly threatened by, the fragile and rapidly deteriorating national security situation and explicit warnings of internal conflict.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. On August 17, an Israeli drone strike killed one person when it targeted a vehicle between the southern Lebanese towns of Aitaroun and Ainata, marking the latest breach of the ceasefire. This follows the August 15 Israeli airstrikes on the northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh, with explosions heard as far away as Marjayoun and Jabal Rihan.

The August 12 Israeli airstrike on the fishing port of Naqoura, injuring fishermen, remains a significant and unaddressed violation of the ceasefire. The LAF’s complex investigation into the deadly August 9 explosion in Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District), which killed six LAF soldiers, is ongoing, with investigators examining scenarios including a technical error or rigged munitions, and awaiting a report from the French UNIFIL contingent. Israeli forces are also confirmed to be continuing the construction of a new military post inside Lebanese territory at Khallat al-Makhafir.

Key Factor: Active and ongoing external conflict, including repeated strikes on civilian targets and continuous border infringements, combined with a critical and complex internal crisis following the deaths of LAF soldiers and the ongoing investigation.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. On August 17, an Israeli drone strike killed one person when it targeted a vehicle between the southern Lebanese towns of Aitaroun and Ainata. On the evening of August 15, Israeli warplanes launched several airstrikes on the northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh, causing loud explosions. This follows the August 13 Israeli drone strike that killed one person and injured others in a car in Bint Jbeil. The entire governorate remains a primary theater for Israeli military operations and is directly impacted by the political and security fallout from the Wadi Zibqin incident in the neighboring governorate, as well as the broader national disarmament crisis and explicit threats of internal conflict.

Key Factor: Strategic importance for non-state actors makes it a central front for ongoing hostilities and civil unrest, compounded by recent and continued Israeli military actions and the escalating internal political crisis.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

Location 1: Beirut, particularly the airport road, areas around government buildings, and diplomatic missions (especially the U.S. Embassy), due to the escalating verbal confrontation between the Prime Minister and Hezbollah, and explicit threats of future protests.

Location 2: The Aitaroun-Ainata area (South Lebanon/Nabatieh border region), following the Israeli drone strike on August 17.

Location 3: The northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh, following the Israeli airstrikes on the evening of August 15.

Location 4: The port of Naqoura (South Lebanon), remaining a site of concern following the August 12 Israeli strike on civilian fishermen.

Location 5: Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District) and surrounding areas, as the LAF investigation into the deadly August 9 explosion continues amidst rising internal tensions and questions about external involvement.

Location 6: Khallat al-Makhafir (South Lebanon), due to the confirmed and ongoing construction of a new Israeli military post inside Lebanese territory.

Location 7: Bint Jbeil district in Nabatieh, following the August 13 Israeli drone strike.

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

Area 1: The Jbeil (Byblos) and Batroun coastal cities. Caveat: Stability is not guaranteed and highly vulnerable to a nationwide escalation, especially given the explicit warnings of internal conflict.

Area 2: The Metn district’s primary residential and commercial zones. Caveat: Subject to significant risks from a nationwide escalation and potential spillover.

Area 3: Beirut Central District. Caveat: Avoid all demonstrations, maintain extreme awareness of opportunistic crime, and be prepared for rapid security deterioration, particularly given the escalating political rhetoric.

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The security situation is extremely volatile and has further deteriorated with explicit warnings of civil conflict from high-level officials. The combination of active external conflict (including a new fatal drone strike on August 17), a severe internal crisis, and public defiance from armed groups makes the environment exceptionally dangerous.

All non-essential travel to South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, Beqaa, Akkar, and Tripoli governorates.

Any non-essential movement. The risk of internal clashes, in addition to ongoing Israeli military operations, is now significantly higher and more explicit.

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

The escalating verbal confrontation between the Prime Minister and Hezbollah, coupled with Hezbollah’s public rejection of disarmament and the ongoing LAF investigation into the deaths of six soldiers, dramatically increases the risk of internal conflict. Prepare for an imminent, rapid, and severe deterioration of the security situation.

Show extreme caution and respect around any military processions or mourning events. Avoid any public discussions about the Wadi Zibqin incident, which is a matter of extreme national sensitivity and currently under intense scrutiny.

Maintain emergency supplies (food, water, medicine) and a “go-bag” with essential documents.

Know the location of the nearest shelter and have a shelter-in-place plan.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

Immediately suspend all non-essential operations. The current crisis, marked by explicit threats of civil war, poses a severe and immediate threat to staff movement and operational continuity.

Review and test emergency plans for evacuation and sheltering in place. Establish clear communication protocols and alert systems for all staff.

The political paralysis and ongoing unrest will impact all administrative functions and services. Be prepared for potential disruptions to infrastructure and services.

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. Multiple governments advise their citizens not to travel to Lebanon and have stated that their ability to provide consular assistance or evacuation is extremely limited. Commercial flights may be cancelled and the airport could close without notice. The situation is too dangerous.

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 99/100

Forecast Trend: ⚡ VOLATILE

Expected Factors: The country remains in a state of national mourning and severe political crisis. The direct verbal clash between the Prime Minister and Hezbollah’s leadership regarding disarmament and threats of internal conflict will be the critical factor driving the crisis. The LAF investigation into the Wadi Zibqin incident and the upcoming UNIFIL mandate renewal vote (August 18) will add further tension. Continued Israeli military activity in the south, including new fatal strikes, is also anticipated.

Preparation Recommendation: All residents and organizations must maintain a maximum state of alert and be prepared for an imminent and severe escalation of the security situation, including potential internal clashes.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

This Week’s Average: 98/100

Change from Last Week: +0 points (stabilized at an extremely high and critical level)

Monthly Trend: Rapidly Deteriorating

Seasonal Assessment: The security environment is now defined by a dual crisis: an active external conflict with Israel, marked by ongoing border incidents and recent fatal strikes, and a severe internal confrontation that has now resulted in the deaths of Lebanese soldiers and explicit defiance from a major armed group, placing the state’s most respected institution at the center of the conflict and raising the specter of civil war.

🛡️ ABOUT THE CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™

The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ represents Lebanon’s first professional daily security assessment tool. Powered by CIS Security’s 35+ years of trusted protection services, this intelligence platform converts real-time security data into clear, actionable guidance for residents, businesses, and organizations.

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🚨 ESSENTIAL LEBANON EMERGENCY CONTACTS

Government Emergency Services:

🚑 Lebanese Red Cross: 140

🚓 Internal Security Forces (Police): 112

🔥 Civil Defense (Fire/Rescue): 125 or 175

🏥 Emergency Medical Services: 140

⚡ Electricité du Liban (EDL): 1707

💧 Water Emergency: 1594

🛣️ Traffic Control: 1717

Military & Security:

🪖 Lebanese Armed Forces: 1701

🛡️ General Security: 1717

🔒 State Security: 1717

🌊 Maritime Security: 1625

Specialized Services:

☎️ Telecom Emergency: 110

🏦 Banking Emergency: 1702

🆘 General Emergency: 999

📞 Directory Assistance: 120

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The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a proprietary intelligence tool developed by CIS Security, Lebanon’s most trusted security service provider since 1990. This index serves as a public service while demonstrating our commitment to community safety and professional security excellence.