CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX August 25 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 89/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 95/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The political crisis in the capital remains severely intensified. As of August 25, a significant development has emerged: Israel announced it will begin a phased withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon only after the Lebanese army starts implementing the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah.

This statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office comes just hours before US envoys Tom Barrack and Morgan Ortagus are due in Beirut for crucial meetings to discuss these very issues. While Palestinian factions continued handing over weapons in refugee camps (reported August 21), Hezbollah explicitly reiterated its rejection of the government’s disarmament plan on August 24, warning of civil war if forced to disarm. These intertwined diplomatic efforts, Israel’s conditional offer, Hezbollah’s defiance, and ongoing threats of civil war sustain an exceptionally high risk of widespread civil unrest, including potential protests directed towards the U.S. embassy. The UN Security Council is also scheduled to vote later today on the UNIFIL mandate renewal.

Key Factor: Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer directly linked to LAF disarmament of Hezbollah, alongside ongoing US diplomatic pressure, Hezbollah’s continued defiance, and the looming UNIFIL mandate vote, further complicate the internal political confrontation and heighten the risk of civil conflict.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 65/100 🟡

Status: Elevated. The risk profile for Mount Lebanon remains high, directly mirroring the intensifying national crisis. The complex investigation into the deaths of the LAF soldiers in Wadi Zibqin continues to fuel national tensions. The heightened political rhetoric from Beirut, including explicit warnings of civil conflict and ongoing debates over disarmament, maintains the potential for spillover violence, politically motivated roadblocks, or broader civil disturbances across the governorate, demanding constant vigilance.

Key Factor: The governorate’s stability is directly threatened by the rapidly escalating national political crisis, explicit warnings of internal conflict, and its potential for localized spillover.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 90/100 🟠

Status: High. The national political crisis, severely intensified by the LAF casualties and the high-stakes political standoff in Beirut, continues to exacerbate existing tensions in Tripoli and the wider North Lebanon region. The deep socio-economic distress and entrenched sectarian fault lines make this area highly susceptible to being drawn into any national-level civil unrest or confrontation, maintaining a high state of alert.

Key Factor: The combination of active conflict risk factors and a heightened potential for large-scale civil unrest due to the intensifying national political instability.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The government’s internal paralysis continues to critically undermine the LAF’s ability to manage the extremely volatile security situation along the porous Syrian border. The foiled ammunition smuggling attempt from Syria towards Lebanese territory in the Al-Qusayr area of Homs on August 24 highlights persistent illicit cross-border activities. While the influx of new Syrian arrivals has slowed due to increased border controls on the Syrian side, families continue to flee into Lebanon through unofficial border points. Recent skirmishes along the border have killed and wounded both fighters and civilians, highlighting the ongoing threat. Beirut and Damascus have attempted some coordination on border security, but political relations remain strained, compounding the region’s existing instability.

Key Factor: Extreme threat from a porous and actively contested border with Syria, marked by recent ammunition smuggling attempts and ongoing refugee flows, severely compounded by the national political crisis and strained inter-state relations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 98/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The region remains an active conflict zone. No new airstrikes were specifically reported directly within the Beqaa Valley on August 25. However, ongoing Israeli military activity in proximity to the Beqaa, evidenced by airstrikes on the northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh on August 15, and recent fatal drone strikes in the Aitaroun-Ainata and al-Housh areas (August 17 and August 20, respectively), suggests a continued high underlying risk of major Israeli strikes. The region is a prominent Hezbollah stronghold and a focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament decision, making it highly volatile. Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer impacts the broader regional dynamics.

Key Factor: Active and ongoing Israeli military threat in the broader region, compounded by high internal tensions and continued opposition to disarmament efforts, now with a new conditional withdrawal offer from Israel.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. This remains a primary conflict zone. The region is a Hezbollah stronghold and a central focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament decision, making it extremely volatile both internally and externally. The escalating national crisis and Hezbollah’s firm stance against disarmament further question the LAF’s mission in the area, potentially emboldening non-state actors. The continued threat of Israeli military operations in the broader Beqaa region persists, maintaining the highest level of alert. Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer impacts the broader regional dynamics.

Key Factor: Assessed as a primary active conflict zone with ongoing major military operations and extremely high internal tensions, now exacerbated by explicit threats of civil conflict from Beirut and a new conditional withdrawal offer from Israel.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 35/100 🟢

Status: Remains the calmest governorate. However, the rapidly escalating national crisis, Hezbollah’s explicit rejection of disarmament, Israel’s conditional withdrawal offer, and the impending UNIFIL mandate vote, pose a significant and immediate threat to this localized stability. All foreign governments continue to advise against travel to any part of Lebanon due to the risk of a sudden, country-wide conflict escalation or a complete breakdown of civil order. This governorate’s calm is entirely precarious.

Key Factor: Localized calm that is entirely dependent on, and increasingly threatened by, the fragile and rapidly deteriorating national security situation and explicit warnings of internal conflict.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. No new specific Israeli military activity was reported for August 25, however, the IDF drone strike on August 23 near the southern Lebanese town of Tefatha, in the Sidon region, remains a very recent incident contributing to the critical status. This follows the fatal Israeli drone strike on August 21 targeting a motorcycle in Deir Siryan, and another drone strike on August 20 in the al-Housh area (east of Tyre) which injured two people and damaged a house, indicating continued active external conflict.

The report of a house destroyed on August 18 in the al-Ksayir neighborhood of Meiss al-Jabal after a cross-border incursion also highlights ongoing border instability. The August 12 Israeli airstrike on the fishing port of Naqoura, injuring fishermen, remains a significant and unaddressed violation of the ceasefire.

The LAF’s complex investigation into the deadly August 9 explosion in Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District), which killed six LAF soldiers, is ongoing, with investigators examining scenarios including a technical error or rigged munitions, and awaiting a report from the French UNIFIL contingent. Israeli forces are also confirmed to be continuing the construction of a new military post inside Lebanese territory at Khallat al-Makhafir. Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer adds another layer of complexity.

Key Factor: Active and escalating external conflict, including a new drone strike on August 23, recent fatal strikes and injuries on August 20-21, continuous border infringements and incursions, combined with a critical and complex internal crisis following the deaths of LAF soldiers, the ongoing investigation, and Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. No new specific Israeli military activity was reported for August 25 directly within Nabatieh, but the proximity to the new IDF drone strike in Tefatha (Sidon region) and the ongoing threat remains. The fatal Israeli drone strike on August 21 in Deir Siryan, a town proximate to Nabatieh, and the previous fatal drone strike on August 17 in the Aitaroun-Ainata area, along with the August 15 Israeli airstrikes on the northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh, indicate continuous Israeli military operations.

This entire governorate remains a primary theater for Israeli military operations and is directly impacted by the political and security fallout from the Wadi Zibqin incident in the neighboring governorate, as well as the broader national disarmament crisis and explicit threats of internal conflict. Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer adds another layer of complexity.

Key Factor: Strategic importance for non-state actors makes it a central front for ongoing hostilities and civil unrest, compounded by recent and continued Israeli military actions, the escalating internal political crisis, and Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

Location 1: Beirut, particularly the airport road, areas around government buildings, and diplomatic missions (especially the U.S. Embassy), due to the escalating verbal confrontation between the Prime Minister and Hezbollah, explicit threats of future protests, Hezbollah’s continued calls for reconsideration of disarmament, the new development of Palestinian faction disarmament, and the arrival of US envoys.

Location 2: Tefatha, Sidon region (South Lebanon), following the reported IDF drone strike on August 23.

Location 3: Deir Siryan (South Lebanon/Nabatieh border region), following the fatal Israeli drone strike on August 21.

Location 4: Al-Housh area, east of Tyre (South Lebanon), following the Israeli drone strike on August 20 that caused injuries and damage.

Location 5: Al-Qusayr area of Homs (Syria side of Akkar border), following the ammunition smuggling attempt foiled by Syrian security on August 24.

Location 6: Meiss al-Jabal (South Lebanon), following the cross-border incursion and house destruction on August 18.

Location 7: The Aitaroun-Ainata area (South Lebanon/Nabatieh border region), following the Israeli drone strike on August 17.

Location 8: The northern outskirts of Kfar Tibnit and Nabatieh, following the Israeli airstrikes on the evening of August 15.

Location 9: The port of Naqoura (South Lebanon), remaining a site of concern following the August 12 Israeli strike on civilian fishermen.

Location 10: Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District) and surrounding areas, as the LAF investigation into the deadly August 9 explosion continues amidst rising internal tensions and questions about external involvement.

Location 11: Khallat al-Makhafir (South Lebanon), due to the confirmed and ongoing construction of a new Israeli military post inside Lebanese territory.

Location 12: Bint Jbeil district in Nabatieh, following the August 13 Israeli drone strike.

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

Area 1: The Jbeil (Byblos) and Batroun coastal cities. Caveat: Stability is not guaranteed and highly vulnerable to a nationwide escalation, especially given the explicit warnings of internal conflict.

Area 2: The Metn district’s primary residential and commercial zones. Caveat: Subject to significant risks from a nationwide escalation and potential spillover.

Area 3: Beirut Central District. Caveat: Avoid all demonstrations, maintain extreme awareness of opportunistic crime, and be prepared for rapid security deterioration, particularly given the escalating political rhetoric and diplomatic activity.

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The security situation is extremely volatile and has further deteriorated with explicit warnings of civil conflict from high-level officials, and ongoing cross-border incidents (including a drone strike on August 23 and previous fatal strikes on August 21). The combination of active external conflict, Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer, a severe internal crisis, and public defiance from armed groups makes the environment exceptionally dangerous.

All non-essential travel to South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, Beqaa, Akkar, and Tripoli governorates.

Any non-essential movement. The risk of internal clashes, in addition to ongoing Israeli military operations, is now significantly higher and more explicit.

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

The escalating verbal confrontation between the Prime Minister and Hezbollah, coupled with Hezbollah’s public rejection of disarmament and now Israel’s conditional withdrawal offer, dramatically increases the risk of internal conflict. Prepare for an imminent, rapid, and severe deterioration of the security situation.

Show extreme caution and respect around any military processions or mourning events. Avoid any public discussions about the Wadi Zibqin incident, which is a matter of extreme national sensitivity and currently under intense scrutiny.

Maintain emergency supplies (food, water, medicine) and a “go-bag” with essential documents.

Know the location of the nearest shelter and have a shelter-in-place plan.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

Immediately suspend all non-essential operations. The current crisis, marked by explicit threats of civil war, poses a severe and immediate threat to staff movement and operational continuity.

Review and test emergency plans for evacuation and sheltering in place. Establish clear communication protocols and alert systems for all staff.

The political paralysis and ongoing unrest will impact all administrative functions and services. Be prepared for potential disruptions to infrastructure and services.

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. Multiple governments advise their citizens not to travel to Lebanon and have stated that their ability to provide consular assistance or evacuation is extremely limited. Commercial flights may be cancelled and the airport could close without notice. The situation is too dangerous.

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 99/100

Forecast Trend: ⚡ VOLATILE

Expected Factors: The country remains in a state of national mourning and severe political crisis. Israel’s new conditional withdrawal offer, the arrival of US envoys for discussions, and the impending UN Security Council vote on UNIFIL mandate renewal will be critical factors. Hezbollah’s explicit rejection of the government’s disarmament plan and warning of civil war will continue to drive internal tensions. The commencement of Palestinian faction disarmament in refugee camps adds a new, albeit complex, dimension to the overall disarmament efforts. The LAF investigation into the Wadi Zibqin incident and potential new Israeli military activity, including drone strikes and other border incidents, are anticipated to continue. The foiled ammunition smuggling attempt at the Syrian border highlights persistent regional instability.

Preparation Recommendation: All residents and organizations must maintain a maximum state of alert and be prepared for an imminent and severe escalation of the security situation, including potential internal clashes.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

This Week’s Average: 99/100

Change from Last Week: +1 point (slight increase due to new drone strikes and continued tensions)

Monthly Trend: Rapidly Deteriorating

Seasonal Assessment: The security environment is now defined by a dual crisis: an active external conflict with Israel, marked by ongoing border incidents and recent fatal strikes and incursions, and a severe internal confrontation that has now resulted in the deaths of Lebanese soldiers and explicit defiance from a major armed group, placing the state’s most respected institution at the center of the conflict and raising the specter of civil war.

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The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a proprietary intelligence asset crafted by CIS Security, Lebanon’s leading security firm since 1990. This index is offered as a public service, showcasing our dedication to community well-being and exceptional security standards.