CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ Sept 13 2025

CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ Sept 13 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 97/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ CATASTROPHIC – MULTI-DIMENSIONAL COLLAPSE

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴
Status: Critical. The capital remains paralyzed following the September 5 cabinet meeting where Hezbollah and Amal ministers walked out in protest over the army’s disarmament plan. US envoy Tom Barrack’s diplomatic crisis continues after his “animalistic” comments to Lebanese journalists triggered widespread outrage and boycott calls. The electricity crisis persists with EDL providing minimal power following the August 2024 nationwide blackout that left the country without state electricity for over 24 hours.
Key Factor: Political deadlock combined with complete infrastructure failure and deteriorating diplomatic relations.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical. Civil unrest escalates following Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea’s September 7 warning that “a civil war would be even more disastrous” than the recent fighting with Israel, while urging Hezbollah to cede its weapons. Highway blockades continue intermittently. The governorate experiences severe power shortages with only 1-3 hours of state electricity daily since the August 2024 blackout.
Key Factor: Sectarian tensions approaching civil war levels with major political leaders openly warning of conflict.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴
Status: Critical. Tripoli faces extreme economic hardship compounded by the ongoing electricity crisis. Since the August 17, 2024 blackout when EDL ran out of fuel, the region receives minimal state electricity. Sectarian tensions remain explosive as various factions mobilize over the disarmament debate. The Lebanese Army’s limited resources, acknowledged by the cabinet, hamper security operations.
Key Factor: Complete infrastructure collapse coinciding with dangerous sectarian polarization.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 95/100 🔴
Status: Critical. The Syrian border remains largely uncontrolled as the LAF struggles with what the government acknowledged as “limited logistics, material, and human resources” for implementing the disarmament plan. Cross-border smuggling and militant movements continue. The electricity crisis has disabled border monitoring equipment since August 2024.
Key Factor: Total border security vacuum due to resource constraints and infrastructure failure.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 98/100 🔴
Status: Critical. Active combat zone. Israeli strikes on September 8 killed at least five people in the Hermel region across 12 separate strikes. The IDF claimed to have hit Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force weapons storage and military compounds. Sheikh Naim Qassem reiterated on September 10 that Hezbollah will not abandon weapons “that protect us from our enemy” and rejected disarmament while Israeli occupation continues.
Key Factor: Active Israeli military operations with confirmed recent casualties and zero disarmament progress.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active War Zone. This Hezbollah stronghold bore the brunt of September 8’s Israeli airstrikes with five killed and five wounded. Israel confirmed targeting what it called Hezbollah’s “largest site for the production of precision missiles.” The region remains ground zero for resistance to disarmament. Infrastructure has collapsed with minimal electricity since August 2024.
Key Factor: Ongoing lethal Israeli strikes with confirmed casualties this week and complete rejection of disarmament.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 75/100 🟡
Status: Elevated. While avoiding direct combat, the area faces severe economic impact from the electricity crisis that began with the August 2024 blackout. Tourism and services struggle with generators providing the only power. Solidarity protests have grown following recent escalations. Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace continue daily.
Key Factor: Economic devastation from infrastructure collapse amplifying political tensions.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active War Zone. UNIFIL reported that on September 3, Israeli drones dropped four grenades near peacekeepers, with one landing just 20 meters away – “one of the most serious attacks on UNIFIL personnel” since the ceasefire. The UN Security Council voted August 28 to terminate UNIFIL’s mandate by end-2026, beginning withdrawal in 2027. Israel maintains occupation of at least five strategic positions despite the ceasefire requiring withdrawal.
Key Factor: Direct attacks on UN peacekeepers, ongoing Israeli occupation, and planned UNIFIL withdrawal.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active War Zone. The governorate continues experiencing near-daily Israeli strikes despite the November ceasefire. Al Jazeera reports Israel has attacked Lebanon in six countries in the past 72 hours alone. Infrastructure remains devastated with no reliable electricity since August 2024. Amnesty International documented over 10,000 civilian structures destroyed by Israel.
Key Factor: Sustained Israeli military operations violating ceasefire with massive civilian infrastructure destruction.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

Location 1: Baalbek-Hermel – Five killed in September 8 Israeli strikes targeting missile production sites
Location 2: South Lebanon border – UNIFIL under direct attack, grenades dropped within 20 meters of peacekeepers
Location 3: Beqaa Valley – Active Israeli operations with 12 strikes on September 8
Location 4: Beirut government district – US envoy crisis after “animalistic” comments
Location 5: All Hezbollah strongholds – Following Qassem’s September 10 rejection of disarmament
Location 6: Syrian-Lebanese border – Complete security vacuum acknowledged by government
Location 7: Nationwide – Electricity grid collapsed since August 17, 2024

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

Area 1: Coastal Jbeil districts – Caveat: Economic collapse and power crisis
Area 2: Central Mount Lebanon residential areas – Caveat: Civil war warnings from major political leaders
Area 3: Northern Metn – Caveat: Infrastructure collapse causing social breakdown

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The US State Department, UK Foreign Office, and multiple governments maintain highest-level travel warnings.

• ALL areas of South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Beqaa Valley, and Baalbek-Hermel (active combat zones)
• Border regions with Syria and Israel
• Any protests or political gatherings
• Areas near critical infrastructure
• Government buildings and diplomatic missions
• UNIFIL positions (under attack)

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

The convergence of active military operations, political deadlock, and complete infrastructure collapse since August 2024 creates unprecedented danger. With confirmed Israeli strikes killing civilians this week and UNIFIL under direct attack:

• Immediate Actions:
  • Secure 30-day emergency supplies including fuel, water, food, medicines
  • Maintain multiple power sources (generators, solar, batteries) – grid collapsed August 17, 2024
  • Keep cash reserves – banking system unreliable without power
  • Document multiple evacuation routes not dependent on traffic signals
  • Store minimum 200 liters of water per person – pumping stations fail without power
  • Prepare for extended blackouts – state provides only 1-3 hours daily since August
  • Monitor Israeli strike patterns – attacks confirmed September 8-10

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

Critical infrastructure failure since August 2024 requires immediate action:

• Transition to complete energy independence or suspend operations
• Secure 60-day fuel reserves for generators
• Implement manual backup systems for all critical functions
• Review force majeure clauses in contracts
• Consider immediate relocation of essential operations
• Prepare for potential looting during extended blackouts
• Document all losses for insurance claims

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

Current situation includes:

• Active military operations with civilian casualties (5 killed September 8)
• UN peacekeepers under direct attack (September 3)
• Complete electricity grid failure since August 17, 2024
• Political system breakdown with cabinet walkouts
• No reliable emergency services
• Infrastructure collapse nationwide

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 98/100
Forecast Trend: ⚡ IMMINENT ESCALATION

Expected Factors:

• Likely Israeli strikes following September 8-10 operations
• Hezbollah response to continued Israeli occupation and strikes
• UNIFIL security deteriorating after grenade attacks
• Electricity crisis triggering civil unrest (grid down since August 17)
• Potential sectarian violence following civil war warnings
• US diplomatic pressure intensifying after envoy incident

Preparation Recommendation: Expect catastrophic deterioration within 24-48 hours. The combination of this week’s Israeli strikes, attacks on UN peacekeepers, infrastructure collapse, and political deadlock creates conditions for rapid, uncontrolled escalation.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

This Week’s Average: 96/100
Change from Last Week: +2 points (Significant Deterioration)
Monthly Trend: Catastrophic Collapse
Seasonal Assessment: Lebanon faces its worst crisis since the civil war. This week alone saw:

• September 8: Israeli strikes killed 5 in Baalbek-Hermel
• September 3: Israeli drones attacked UNIFIL peacekeepers
• September 10: Israel confirmed attacking 6 countries in 72 hours
• Ongoing: Complete electricity grid failure since August 17, 2024
• Political: Cabinet paralysis with Hezbollah/Amal walkout September 5
• Diplomatic: US envoy crisis after “animalistic” comments to press

The UN Security Council’s decision to terminate UNIFIL by 2026, combined with Israel maintaining illegal occupation of five Lebanese positions and conducting near-daily strikes violating the ceasefire, signals complete breakdown of international security mechanisms.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: LEBANON’S PREMIER SECURITY SOLUTIONS

Since 1990, CIS Security has protected Lebanon through its darkest hours. Today, as the nation faces active combat operations, complete infrastructure collapse since August 2024, and warnings of civil war, our experience becomes your lifeline.

CRITICAL PERIOD SERVICES:

Power Crisis Response (Post-August 2024 Blackout)

• Generator-powered 24/7 operations
• Solar backup systems with battery storage
• Independent fuel procurement and protection
• Energy security consulting

Active Conflict Protection

• Fortified safe rooms tested against recent strikes
• Combat-experienced personnel (Lebanon operations since 1990)
• Real-time intelligence on Israeli strike patterns
• Emergency medical response capabilities

Infrastructure Failure Management

• Satellite communication systems
• Water purification and storage solutions
• Cash and valuable asset security
• Food supply chain protection

Emergency Evacuation Services

• Pre-positioned extraction teams
• Multiple evacuation routes updated daily
• Cross-border coordination capabilities
• Diplomatic liaison services

Your survival depends on professional security. Act now.

IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY RESPONSE

📞 Crisis Hotline: +961-3-539900
🌐 Website: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Emergency: info@cissecurity.net
📍 Offices: Operational nationwide despite crisis

When the lights fail and the shells fall, CIS Security stands guard.

CRITICAL ALERT: This assessment reflects conditions as of September 13, 2025, 14:00 Beirut time. The situation is deteriorating hourly with active combat operations, complete infrastructure failure since August 2024, and political collapse occurring simultaneously. Multiple governments advise against all travel to Lebanon. Immediate protective action is essential for survival.