CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 18 2025
🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 18 2025
📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING
INDEX LEVEL: 🟠 HIGH ALERT
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 71/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ CRITICAL TENSIONS – DISARMAMENT CRISIS LOOMING
🚨 BREAKING: TODAY’S CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
PROTESTS IN BEIRUT – LIVE:
- Retired military personnel blocking roads – Burning tires in Saifi, Ring Road, and Beshara al-Khoury
- Traffic at standstill around Grand Serail downtown Beirut
- Living conditions crisis – Servicemen demanding overdue compensations
HEZBOLLAH ANNIVERSARY CONTROVERSY:
- Plans to project Nasrallah/Safieddine images on iconic Raouche Rock September 25
- Political opposition calling it “divisive and unlawful”
- Beirut MPs condemning use of national landmark for “partisan propaganda”
- Hezbollah supporters planning maritime activities 5-7pm
MAJOR DRUG BUST:
- Lebanese Army seized 64 million Captagon pills in massive operation
- Separate raid in Al-Farzal, Zahle netted 5 million pills September 17
- Largest drug enforcement operation in months
US ENVOY VISIT SUNDAY:
- Morgan Ortagus arriving September 22 to review army disarmament plan
- Tom Barrack controversy continues after “animalistic” comment to journalists
- Pressure mounting for Hezbollah weapons transfer by year-end
JUSTICE BREAKTHROUGH:
- Igor Grechushkin detained in Bulgaria for 2020 port blast
- Lebanon preparing extradition request
- Judge Bitar planning August 4, 2025 indictment (5th anniversary)
🌡️ GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT – REAL-TIME STATUS
BEIRUT 🏙️
Index Reading: 73/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Active Protests & Political Tensions
Downtown paralyzed by retired military protests with roads blocked and burning tires. Finance Ministry announced servicemen can receive aid starting tomorrow after protests escalated. Raouche Rock controversy dividing city as Hezbollah plans September 25 commemoration despite governor not being contacted for permits.
Infrastructure crisis continues: Only 2-4 hours electricity daily from EDL. Private generators charging $100-200/month. Water rationing in effect. Inflation at 14.3% (July 2025), down from peaks but still crushing purchasing power. Lebanese pound stabilized around 89,000 LBP/USD on parallel market.
World Bank $250 million reconstruction loan approved but implementation slow. Banking sector operating under unofficial capital controls. ATM withdrawals limited, international transfers restricted.
Key Factor: Social unrest from economic pressures meeting political tensions over disarmament.
MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️
Index Reading: 54/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Economic Pressures Building
Region avoiding direct security incidents but economic strain visible. Solar installations providing alternative power with 450 MW capacity reached. Tourism sector struggling with occupancy below 40%.
Starlink satellite internet now licensed providing connectivity alternatives. Banking reforms progressing slowly with new secrecy laws passed April 2025. Central Bank Governor Souaid attempting to restore confidence.
Key Factor: Economic hub status challenged by nationwide financial crisis.
NORTH LEBANON 🌊
Index Reading: 59/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Social Tensions Rising
Tripoli experiencing spillover from Beirut protests. Economic desperation driving increased crime. Captagon trafficking networks disrupted by army raids but smuggling continues.
Pope Leo XIV scheduled visit end of November providing temporary hope. Local initiatives attempting to address poverty affecting 80% of population.
Key Factor: Poverty-driven instability risk increasing despite security operations.
AKKAR 🌲
Index Reading: 62/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Border Security Focus
Syrian border tensions managed after March ceasefire following 10 deaths. August destruction of Yammoune Captagon facility through Iraqi cooperation marks progress. Cross-border movement continues despite controls.
Army checkpoints increased following drug busts. Local economy dependent on illicit trade creating enforcement challenges.
Key Factor: Drug trafficking networks resilient despite major seizures.
BEQAA VALLEY 🍇
Index Reading: 75/100 🟠
Status: High – Continued Military Activity
Israeli strikes continuing despite ceasefire. September 8 attacks on Hermel/Labweh killed 5. Infrastructure heavily damaged – 82% electricity facilities destroyed in some areas.
Agricultural sector devastated with irrigation systems compromised. Displacement continues with 100,000 unable to return nationally. Humanitarian access restricted by ongoing operations.
Key Factor: Active strike zone preventing reconstruction despite ceasefire.
BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌
Index Reading: 77/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Strategic Vulnerability
Region remains primary target for Israeli operations claiming weapons storage. September strikes killed multiple individuals. Infrastructure non-functional with residents dependent on generators and water trucking.
Hezbollah maintaining presence despite army deployment plans. Local population caught between Israeli strikes and Lebanese Army operations.
Key Factor: Frontline of disarmament tensions with active military operations.
KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️
Index Reading: 49/100 🟡
Status: Moderate – Relative Stability
Best security conditions nationwide but economic challenges mounting. Real estate sector seeing some activity from dollar holders seeking value preservation. Restaurants and beaches operating at reduced capacity.
Infrastructure more reliable with 8-12 hours electricity in some areas. Internet connectivity better than southern regions.
Key Factor: Safe haven status attracting displaced but straining resources.
SOUTH LEBANON 🌴
Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Occupation & Violence
Israel maintaining 5 military positions violating ceasefire. Daily violations including:
- September 17: Nabatieh strike injured 7
- Yater vehicle strikes continuing
- Houla building demolition by Israeli forces
- Burj Qalawi raid killing Mohammad Ali Yassin
22 killed January 26 trying to return to villages. Israeli forces preventing civilian returns. Infrastructure destroyed: 27% schools, 33% water facilities in some districts.
Key Factor: Israeli occupation and daily strikes preventing any civilian normalization.
NABATIEH ⛪
Index Reading: 87/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Primary Strike Zone
September 17 Ksar Zaatar strike injured 7, Israeli military confirming targeting “Hezbollah headquarters.” Municipality building previously destroyed killing 15. Over 27% of Marjayoun district buildings damaged/destroyed.
60 schools destroyed since September 2024. Healthcare system collapsed with most facilities closed. Population displacement near total in border villages.
Key Factor: Systematic targeting making region uninhabitable despite ceasefire.
🎯 IMMEDIATE SECURITY ALERTS
🔥 EXTREME DANGER ZONES – TODAY:
Active Threat Areas:
- Downtown Beirut – Protests ongoing, roads blocked, avoid Grand Serail area
- All Israeli-occupied positions – 5 locations with shoot-on-sight orders
- Nabatieh/Yater corridor – Daily strikes, no civilian movement safe
- Hermel/Labweh – Recent strikes, military operations ongoing
- Airport Road – Potential flashpoint if Iran flight tensions escalate
High Risk Areas:
- Dahiyeh southern Beirut – Surveillance, potential strikes
- All southern villages within 5km of border
- Main highways south – Military checkpoints, delays
- Palestinian camps – Weapons handover tensions
⚠️ SECURITY INCIDENTS LAST 48 HOURS:
- September 17: Nabatieh airstrike – 7 injured
- September 17: Beirut protests – Roads blocked, burning tires
- September 17: Major Captagon seizures – 5 million pills
- September 16: Raouche Rock controversy announced
- Ongoing: Daily Israeli violations despite ceasefire
📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
🏠 RESIDENTS – IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:
BEIRUT RESIDENTS:
- AVOID downtown protest areas until further notice
- Stock 72-hour supplies – protests may expand
- Secure cash – banks may close if unrest escalates
- Charge all devices – power cuts expected
SOUTHERN RESIDENTS:
- DO NOT attempt returns without army coordination
- Report all drone sightings immediately
- Keep documents ready for rapid evacuation
- Monitor local WhatsApp groups for strike warnings
ESSENTIAL PREPARATIONS:
- Fuel vehicles – stations may close during protests
- Stock medications – supply chains disrupted
- Prepare alternate routes – main roads blocked
- Keep $500-1000 cash minimum (small bills)
🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS TODAY:
IMMEDIATE CONSIDERATIONS:
- Downtown businesses should close early
- Implement work-from-home if possible
- Secure premises – protest spillover risk
- Verify staff safety before requiring attendance
FINANCIAL REALITY:
- Dollar exchange: 89,000 LBP (parallel market)
- Inflation: 14.3% annual (July 2025)
- Banking: Severe restrictions continue
- Only “fresh dollars” fully accessible
🚗 MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS TODAY:
CRITICAL WARNINGS:
- Downtown Beirut gridlocked – avoid completely
- Southern regions – Israeli forces may fire without warning
- Airport road – Monitor for Hezbollah protests
- Fuel shortages reported – conserve travel
CHECKPOINTS ACTIVE:
- Army increased presence all major intersections
- ID required – keep documents ready
- Extended delays expected
- Some roads closed without notice
🔮 24-72 HOUR FORECAST
Predicted Index: 73-78/100
Trend: ⬆️ ESCALATION LIKELY
Expected Developments:
- Protest expansion – Other sectors may join military retirees
- September 22 – US envoy visit likely to trigger reactions
- September 25 – Raouche Rock event potential flashpoint
- Disarmament tensions – Hezbollah response pending
- Economic pressures – Currency may weaken further
Critical Risks:
- Internal conflict over disarmament
- Israeli escalation if Hezbollah doesn’t comply
- Social explosion from economic desperation
- Infrastructure collapse accelerating
- Regional spillover from Syria/Iran tensions
📊 SITUATION ANALYSIS
Current Reality Check:
- Government functioning but fragmented over disarmament
- Economy in freefall – 80% poverty rate, services collapsed
- Israeli occupation continues – 5 positions held indefinitely
- 100,000 still displaced – Returns blocked by Israel
- Infrastructure destroyed – $11 billion needed for reconstruction
Political Dynamics Today:
- PM Salam pushing disarmament despite Hezbollah resistance
- President Aoun backing army plan but facing pushback
- US pressure intensifying through envoys
- Iran warning against disarmament attempts
- Hezbollah weakened but not defeated
Economic Indicators:
- GDP contracted 38% since 2019
- Currency lost 98% of value
- Inflation moderating to 14% from triple digits
- $250 million World Bank loan insufficient
- IMF negotiations stalled since 2022
🛡️ CIS SECURITY: PROTECTING YOU THROUGH CRISIS
TODAY’S ENHANCED SECURITY PROTOCOLS
As Lebanon faces unprecedented challenges, CIS Security provides essential protection services adapted to current threats:
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE SERVICES:
Protest Security Management:
- Facility protection during demonstrations
- Safe passage coordination through protest zones
- Emergency evacuation if situations escalate
- Real-time intelligence on crowd movements
Executive Protection – Critical Today:
- Secure transportation avoiding hotspots
- Close protection during Beirut movements
- Safe house arrangements if needed
- 24/7 threat monitoring
Residential Security – High Alert:
- Building access control enhancement
- Generator and fuel protection
- Panic room preparation
- Community watch coordination
Business Continuity Support:
- Remote monitoring capabilities
- Asset protection planning
- Crisis management activation
- Staff safety protocols
SPECIALIZED CAPABILITIES:
Intelligence Services:
- Real-time protest tracking
- Strike pattern analysis
- Threat assessment updates
- Early warning systems
Emergency Response Teams:
- Rapid deployment units
- Medical evacuation capability
- Crisis extraction planning
- Family reunification services
When stability collapses, CIS Security remains your constant.
⚠️ CRITICAL NOTICE – SITUATION VOLATILE
THIS IS A LIVING DOCUMENT – Situation extremely fluid with conditions changing hourly.
IMMEDIATE THREATS:
- Downtown protests may spread rapidly
- Hezbollah anniversary preparations could trigger clashes
- Israeli strikes continue despite ceasefire
- Economic desperation driving social unrest
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS DEEPENING:
- 80% population in poverty
- Essential services collapsed
- Mental health crisis widespread
- Child malnutrition increasing
NEXT UPDATE: Following US envoy arrival or any major incident
Stay Alert. Stay Safe. Stay Informed.
🔍 CIS SECURITY LEBANON – YOUR SURVIVAL PARTNER
35 Years Through Every Crisis
From civil war to economic collapse, from invasion to occupation, CIS Security has protected Lebanon’s people and assets through it all. Today’s challenges demand our most comprehensive response.
Why CIS Now More Than Ever: ✓ Only truly independent security provider – No political affiliations ✓ International standards maintained despite local collapse ✓ Generator-independent operations – Solar-powered command centers ✓ Dollar-based service options for financial stability ✓ Evacuation partnerships with international providers ✓ Armed response authorization from Lebanese Army
Our Promise: When the state cannot protect you, CIS Security will.
📞 Emergency: +961-3-539900
💬 WhatsApp: 24/7 monitored
🌐 Portal: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Crisis: info@cissecurity.net
Protecting Lebanon’s Future, Today.
