🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX September 2 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 93/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The capital is on exceptionally high alert today as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are scheduled to present their plan for the disarmament of Hezbollah to the cabinet. This meeting represents a critical flashpoint in the country’s severe political crisis, pitting the government’s commitment to state sovereignty against Hezbollah’s powerful non-state actor status. The potential for a political breakdown, large-scale protests by opposing factions, or a constitutional crisis is extremely high. This internal confrontation is the single most significant driver of instability in the country today, eclipsing even the ongoing external threats.

Key Factor: The scheduled presentation of the LAF’s Hezbollah disarmament plan to the government, creating an event of maximum political tension and a high risk of immediate civil unrest.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The risk profile has escalated significantly due to the political crisis reaching a peak in Beirut. As the governorate immediately surrounding the capital, Mount Lebanon is highly susceptible to spillover from any political turmoil. There is an acute risk of politically motivated roadblocks on major arteries leading into and out of Beirut, as well as the potential for localized clashes between rival political supporters. The governorate’s stability is directly tied to the outcome of today’s cabinet session.

Key Factor: Extreme risk of spillover from the high-stakes political confrontation in Beirut over the Hezbollah disarmament plan.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴

Status: Critical. While diplomatic efforts are underway—evidenced by the Lebanon-Syria meeting on border security on September 1—the overarching national crisis centered in Beirut maintains a high level of tension in the North. Existing socio-economic distress and sectarian fault lines in areas like Tripoli make the region highly reactive to the political showdown over disarmament, posing a significant risk of being drawn into wider civil unrest.

Key Factor: A high potential for civil unrest fueled by the national political crisis, which could easily ignite pre-existing local tensions.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴

Status: Critical. Yesterday, September 1, Lebanese and Syrian officials agreed to form joint committees to address border security and smuggling. While a positive diplomatic step, this does little to alter the immediate on-the-ground reality. The state’s security apparatus is entirely focused on the crisis in Beirut and the south, leaving the porous Syrian border critically exposed. The risk of illicit cross-border activity remains extreme, compounded by the government’s paralysis.

Key Factor: Extreme threat from a porous border, compounded by a national crisis that has diverted all state security resources, despite recent diplomatic overtures with Damascus.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 91/100 🔴

Status: Critical. As a primary Hezbollah stronghold, the Beqaa Valley is a focal point of opposition to the government’s disarmament plan being presented today. The political confrontation in Beirut directly heightens tensions within the region, where support for Hezbollah’s “resistance” narrative is strongest. The underlying threat of Israeli military action persists, creating a dual-threat environment of both internal and external conflict potential.

Key Factor: Severe internal tensions directly linked to the national disarmament debate, combined with a persistent underlying risk of major Israeli military strikes.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴

Status: Critical. This governorate remains a primary conflict zone and the heartland of opposition to the state’s disarmament efforts. The political developments in Beirut are being watched with extreme sensitivity here, and any perceived move against Hezbollah’s arms could provoke a significant local reaction. The region’s security situation is exceptionally volatile, given its strategic importance to Hezbollah and the ongoing threat of Israeli military operations.

Key Factor: Assessed as a primary conflict zone with extremely high internal tensions directly tied to the political showdown in Beirut over the disarmament plan.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 45/100 🟡

Status: Elevated. The governorate remains outwardly calm, but the extreme political tension in Beirut casts a heavy shadow. The stability is entirely precarious and dependent on a peaceful resolution to the disarmament crisis, which appears unlikely. Foreign government advisories against all travel to Lebanon remain firmly in place due to the risk that a political breakdown could trigger a rapid, country-wide security collapse.

Key Factor: Localized calm is entirely dependent on a fragile national situation that is currently at a political breaking point.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 96/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone with continued psychological and military operations. Today, September 2, the Israeli army dropped leaflets over the town of Rabb Thalathin (Marjayoun district), the site where a bulldozer was targeted by an Israeli strike yesterday. The leaflets warned the population that the bulldozer was being used to rehabilitate Hezbollah “military infrastructure” and to stay away from the group. This action follows a week of direct LAF casualties and ongoing airstrikes, confirming a persistent and active conflict.

Key Factor: Active Israeli military and psychological operations, including leaflet drops today, following a targeted strike yesterday, all set against the backdrop of immense national political tension.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 96/100 🔴

Status: Critical. An active war zone. The Israeli leaflet drop in the neighboring Marjayoun district and the targeted strikes over the weekend in this governorate confirm it remains a central front for ongoing hostilities. The political crisis in Beirut over Hezbollah’s disarmament has direct and severe implications for Nabatieh, a key area of the group’s operations and popular support. The combination of active external conflict and a looming internal showdown places the region at maximum risk.

Key Factor: A central front for ongoing Israeli military operations that is now directly impacted by the severe internal political crisis over the disarmament of Hezbollah.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

• Location 1: Government Buildings in Beirut (especially the Grand Serail), due to the critical cabinet session on the LAF’s Hezbollah disarmament plan. High potential for protests and unrest.
• Location 2: Rabb Thalathin (Marjayoun district, South Lebanon), following an Israeli strike on Sept 1 and subsequent Israeli leaflet drops on Sept 2.
• Location 3: Nabatieh District, specifically the areas of Ali al-Taher and Kafr Tibnit, following multiple Israeli airstrikes on August 31.
• Location 4: Ras Al-Naqoura area (South Lebanon), following the fatal Israeli drone strike on LAF personnel on August 28.
• Location 5: Wadi Zibqin (Tyre District), where the investigation into the deadly August 9 explosion that killed LAF personnel remains a source of national tension.

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

• Area 1: The Jbeil (Byblos) and Batroun coastal cities. Caveat: Stability is highly vulnerable to a political breakdown in Beirut.
• Area 2: The Metn district’s primary residential and commercial zones. Caveat: At risk from politically motivated road closures and spillover.
• Area 3: Beirut Central District. Caveat: Avoid all demonstrations and areas near government buildings.

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

• DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The security situation has reached a critical internal flashpoint on top of an active external conflict.
• All non-essential travel to South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, and the Beqaa governorates.
• Areas around government buildings in Beirut.
• Any political gathering or demonstration, as the risk of clashes is extremely high.

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

• The political situation has reached a breaking point. Be prepared for an imminent and severe deterioration of civil order, particularly in Beirut and its surrounding areas.
• Minimize all movement today. Avoid any areas where political supporters may gather.
• Ensure you have a minimum of 72 hours of emergency supplies (food, water, medicine). Reconfirm your shelter-in-place plans.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• Suspend all non-essential operations for the day. Instruct staff to work from home if possible. The risk of widespread road closures and unrest is too high.
• Activate emergency communication trees to ensure you can account for all staff.
• Be prepared for a complete disruption of government and administrative services following today’s cabinet session.

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

• DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The risk of being caught in widespread civil unrest or a rapid military escalation is exceptionally high. Consular assistance is not guaranteed.

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

• Predicted Index Reading: 93/100
• Forecast Trend: ⚡ VOLATILE
• Expected Factors: The immediate political fallout from the cabinet session on disarmament will be the dominant factor. Expect strong statements from all political parties, with a high probability of street protests and demonstrations tonight and into the coming days. Low-level Israeli military activity is likely to continue in the south, but the primary threat has shifted to internal political conflict.
• Preparation Recommendation: Maximum state of alert. All personnel should be prepared for a rapid escalation of internal civil unrest.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

• This Week’s Average: 92/100 (Projected)
• Change from Last Week: +3 points (increase due to the political crisis reaching a definitive and dangerous flashpoint with the presentation of the LAF disarmament plan).
• Monthly Trend: Rapidly Deteriorating
• Seasonal Assessment: The security environment has now fully transitioned into a dual crisis. The active external conflict with Israel is now matched by a critical internal confrontation as the Lebanese state formally tables a plan to address Hezbollah’s weapons. This represents the most significant challenge to Lebanon’s internal stability in years, creating an unprecedentedly complex and dangerous situation.

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