CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 19 2025

🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 19 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 78/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ ACTIVE MILITARY ESCALATION – MULTIPLE STRIKES TODAY

🚨 BREAKING: MAJOR ISRAELI ESCALATION UNDERWAY

LIVE – MASSIVE STRIKE CAMPAIGN (September 19, 2025):

• 5 TOWNS UNDER ATTACK NOW: Mais Al Jabal, Debbin, Burj Qalawiya, Al Shahabiya, Kfar Tibnit
• Casualties: 1 injured in Mais Al Jabal, Syrian injured in additional strikes
• Mass evacuations underway – Roads packed as residents flee
• IDF warning: “Series of raids on Hezbollah military targets” announced
• Lebanese Army: Israel has committed 4,500 ceasefire violations since November 2024

PRESIDENT AOUN STATEMENT TODAY:

• “Israel does not respect the mechanism or sponsoring countries”
• “Silence of sponsoring countries is dangerous failure encouraging attacks”
• “Airstrikes are blatant violation of Security Council Resolution 1701”

PRIME MINISTER SALAM RESPONSE:

• Condemning Israeli “intimidation and aggressions”
• Calls for international community to exert “maximum pressure” on Israel
• Reiterates Lebanon’s commitment to ceasefire despite violations

YESTERDAY’S ATTACKS (September 18):

• Israeli strikes hit Meiss el-Jabal, Kfar Tebnit, Debbin
• Targeted Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force weapons depots
• Mass evacuations occurred with 1-hour warning
• Marked anniversary of pager attacks that wounded 3,000+

🌡️ LIVE GOVERNORATE SECURITY STATUS – SEPTEMBER 19, 2025

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 68/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Political Tensions Rising

Capital experiencing relative calm but tensions building over disarmament crisis. Hezbollah planning controversial September 25 projection of Nasrallah/Safieddine images on Raouche Rock drawing fierce political opposition. MPs calling it “partisan propaganda” on national landmark.

Economic indicators mixed: Lebanese pound stable at 89,500 LBP/USD. Inflation dropped to 14.3% (July 2025) from triple digits. World Bank projects 4.7% GDP growth for 2025 but cumulative decline since 2019 reaches 40%. Electricity remains critical at 2-4 hours daily.

US envoy controversy continues with Tom Barrack’s “animalistic” comment to journalists. Morgan Ortagus expected visit approaching. Cabinet walkout by 5 Shia ministers over disarmament plan.

Key Factor: Political crisis intensifying as disarmament deadline approaches year-end.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 55/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Economic Pressures

Region avoiding direct military action but economic strain visible. Tourism sector attempting recovery with limited success. Solar installations at 450 MW providing alternative power. Banking sector implementing reforms slowly with Karim Souaid as new Central Bank governor.

Starlink satellite internet now licensed by government. Real estate transactions continue as dollar holders seek value preservation amid crisis.

Key Factor: Economic hub struggling with nationwide financial collapse effects.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 60/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Social Instability Risk

Tripoli experiencing economic desperation with 80% poverty rate. Major drug enforcement success with 64 million Captagon pills seized in recent operations. Pope Leo XIV visit scheduled end of November providing temporary hope boost.

Army maintaining increased checkpoints following drug busts. Cross-border smuggling networks disrupted but resilient.

Key Factor: Poverty-driven instability balanced by security operations.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 63/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Border Security Focus

Syrian border relatively stable following March ceasefire after 10 killed in clashes. August destruction of Yammoune Captagon facility through Iraqi cooperation marks counter-narcotics progress.

Cross-border movement continues despite controls. Local economy dependent on smuggling creating enforcement challenges.

Key Factor: Drug trafficking networks adapting despite major seizures.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Strike Zone

September 8 strikes on Hermel/Labweh killed 5 people. IDF claiming to target Radwan Force compounds and weapons storage. Infrastructure devastated with 82% electricity facilities destroyed in some areas.

Agricultural sector collapsed with irrigation systems compromised. Humanitarian access severely restricted by ongoing operations.

Key Factor: Strategic corridor under constant Israeli attacks despite ceasefire.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 84/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Military Target Zone

Region remains primary target for Israeli operations. September 8 strikes killed multiple individuals with 12 separate attacks reported. Infrastructure non-functional with residents dependent on generators.

Hezbollah maintaining presence despite army deployment plans. Population trapped between Israeli strikes and Lebanese Army operations.

Key Factor: Frontline of military operations with civilian population at extreme risk.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 50/100 🟡
Status: Moderate – Relative Stability

Best security conditions nationwide but economic challenges mounting. Some infrastructure more reliable with 8-12 hours electricity in certain areas. Tourism sector operating at reduced capacity.

Coastal areas serving as refuge for displaced populations straining local resources.

Key Factor: Safe haven status creating resource pressures.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – ACTIVE WAR ZONE TODAY

LIVE ATTACKS: 5 towns under Israeli bombardment NOW. Mass evacuations on packed roads. IDF announcing “series of raids” continuing.

Israel maintains 5 military positions indefinitely. Daily violations including drone strikes, building demolitions, targeted killings. 22 killed January 26 trying to return to villages. Infrastructure destroyed: 27% schools, 33% water facilities.

Key Factor: Active military operations making region uninhabitable.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Primary Strike Target

Yesterday’s strikes targeted densely populated areas. IDF claiming Hezbollah infrastructure targets. Over 27% of Marjayoun district buildings damaged/destroyed. 60 schools destroyed since September 2024.

Healthcare system collapsed with most facilities closed. Population displacement near total in border villages.

Key Factor: Systematic targeting preventing any civilian life normalization.

🎯 IMMEDIATE SECURITY ALERTS – SEPTEMBER 19, 2025

🔥 ACTIVE DANGER ZONES – RIGHT NOW:

EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY:

1. Mais Al Jabal – Under active bombardment
2. Kfar Tibnit – Strike zone, roads cut at Zoutar junction
3. Debbin – Multiple raids reported
4. Burj Qalawiya – Cemetery damaged, active strikes
5. Al Shahabiya – IDF targeting “Hezbollah headquarters”

EXTREME DANGER – NEXT 24 HOURS:

• All southern Lebanon within 10km of border
• Hermel/Labweh corridor – Previous strikes, likely repeat
• Nabatieh district – Continued “Radwan Force” targeting
• Main evacuation routes – Congested, potential targets
• Any alleged “Hezbollah infrastructure” sites

⚠️ VERIFIED INCIDENTS LAST 24 HOURS:

September 19 (TODAY):

• 0800: IDF evacuation warnings issued
• 0900: Strike campaign begins on 5 towns
• 1000: Mass evacuations, roads congested
• 1100: President Aoun condemns violations
• Ongoing: Multiple raids continuing

September 18 (YESTERDAY):

• 3 towns struck after 1-hour warning
• Radwan Force weapons depots targeted
• Pager attack anniversary marked
• PM Salam denounces violations

📱 CRITICAL SAFETY GUIDANCE – TODAY ONLY

🏠 RESIDENTS – IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:

SOUTHERN LEBANON – EVACUATE NOW:

• Leave ALL targeted towns immediately
• Do not wait for specific warnings
• Use northern routes only
• Avoid main highways if possible
• Take only essentials

BEIRUT RESIDENTS:

• Monitor September 25 Raouche Rock situation
• Prepare for potential protests/clashes
• Stock 1-week supplies minimum
• Keep $1000+ cash on hand
• Have evacuation plan ready

ESSENTIAL TODAY:

• Full fuel tanks – stations may close
• Charge all devices NOW
• Download offline maps
• Prepare go-bags for family
• Know nearest shelter locations

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS – SEPTEMBER 19:

IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENTS:

• Southern operations CEASE immediately
• Evacuate all southern personnel
• Activate remote work protocols
• Secure physical assets if possible
• Document losses for insurance

ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK:

• Exchange: 89,500 LBP/USD (stable)
• Inflation: 14.3% (July 2025)
• GDP: -40% cumulative since 2019
• Banking: Severe restrictions continue
• Power: 2-4 hours daily only

🚗 MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS – LIVE:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO:

• ANY southern Lebanon location
• Bekaa Valley unnecessary travel
• Hermel region
• Border areas within 30km

EXTREME CAUTION:

• Beirut-South highway
• All evacuation routes from south
• Checkpoints – expect long delays
• Fuel availability critical

🔮 24-48 HOUR FORECAST

Predicted Index: 80-85/100
Trend: ⬆️ ESCALATION CONTINUING

Expected Developments:

1. Israeli strikes to intensify – Pattern suggests expansion
2. More evacuation orders – Additional towns likely targeted
3. Hezbollah response possible – Pressure mounting for retaliation
4. International condemnation – But no intervention expected
5. Humanitarian crisis deepening – Displacement increasing

Critical Risks Next 48 Hours:

• Strikes expanding to Bekaa/Beirut suburbs
• Hezbollah breaking restraint
• Mass displacement overwhelming resources
• Infrastructure collapse accelerating
• Regional actors intervening

📊 SITUATION ANALYSIS – REALITY CHECK

Military Reality:

• 4,500 Israeli violations documented since ceasefire
• 5 Israeli positions occupied indefinitely
• Daily strikes despite international agreements
• Lebanese Army powerless to stop violations
• UN monitoring ineffective – No enforcement capability

Political Dynamics:

• Disarmament deadline: End of 2025 per US demands
• Cabinet split: 5 Shia ministers walked out
• Hezbollah position: “No life in Lebanon” if disarmed by force
• US pressure: Barrack/Ortagus pushing hard
• International response: Condemnation without action

Economic Indicators:

• Growth projection: 4.7% for 2025 (World Bank)
• Cumulative loss: 40% GDP since 2019
• Inflation: Moderating to 14-15% from 200%+
• Currency: Stabilized around 89,500 LBP/USD
• Reconstruction needs: $11 billion minimum

Humanitarian Crisis:

• 100,000+ displaced unable to return
• 80% poverty rate nationwide
• Infrastructure destroyed in south
• Healthcare collapsed in conflict zones
• Education disrupted for 1.5 million students

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: PROTECTING YOU DURING ESCALATION

IMMEDIATE ENHANCED PROTOCOLS ACTIVATED

As Lebanon faces renewed military escalation, CIS Security provides critical protection services:

TODAY’S PRIORITY SERVICES:

Emergency Evacuation Support:

• Immediate extraction from strike zones
• Safe corridor navigation
• Checkpoint negotiation
• Cross-border coordination if needed
• Family reunification services

Real-Time Intelligence:

• Live strike monitoring
• Evacuation route updates
• Threat pattern analysis
• Early warning systems
• Direct military liaison

Executive Protection – Critical:

• Armored vehicle deployment
• Close protection teams
• Safe house network activated
• Medical support on standby
• International extraction ready

Facility Security – Maximum Alert:

• 24/7 armed response
• Blast mitigation measures
• Emergency shelter preparation
• Generator/fuel protection
• Panic room activation

SPECIALIZED CAPABILITIES TODAY:

Strike Zone Services:

• Pre-strike warning intelligence
• Rapid evacuation execution
• Casualty extraction teams
• Emergency medical response
• Documentation for claims

Crisis Management Center:

• 24/7 monitoring active
• Multiple language support
• International coordination
• Embassy liaison services
• Insurance documentation

🚨 EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACTIVE NOW

WhatsApp Crisis: Monitored continuously Emergency App: GPS tracking active Safe Zones: Pre-positioned teams ready

Current Response Times:

• Strike zones: Immediate if accessible
• Beirut: 10 minutes
• Mount Lebanon: 15 minutes
• Evacuation: Coordinated within hour

When the state cannot protect, CIS Security will.

⚠️ CRITICAL ALERT – SITUATION DETERIORATING

THIS IS NOT A DRILL – Active military operations ongoing with civilian casualties.

IMMEDIATE THREATS TODAY:

• Multiple towns under active bombardment
• Mass displacement creating humanitarian emergency
• Infrastructure targeting continues
• No effective international intervention
• Escalation pattern suggests expansion

HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY:

• Civilians fleeing under fire
• Medical facilities overwhelmed
• Children at extreme risk
• No safe zones in south
• International law being violated

NEXT UPDATE: Every 2 hours during active operations or immediately if situation changes

Your Safety Is Our Only Priority

🔍 CIS SECURITY LEBANON – WHEN IT MATTERS MOST

35 Years of Crisis Experience – Operating Through Everything

Today’s escalation demands our most comprehensive response. While others evacuate, CIS Security remains operational, providing the protection Lebanon’s people desperately need.

Why CIS During Crisis: ✓ Only security firm with active strike zone access ✓ Direct coordination with all parties ✓ International evacuation partnerships active ✓ Armored vehicles and medical teams deployed ✓ Generator-independent operations centers ✓ 35-year track record through all conflicts

Our Commitment: We don’t abandon our clients when danger peaks.

📞 Emergency: +961-3-539900
💬 WhatsApp: 24/7 monitored
🌐 Portal: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Crisis: info@cissecurity.net

When Lebanon faces its darkest hours, CIS Security remains your light.