CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 21 2025
CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 21 2025
📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING
INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 86/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ EXTREME – 4,500 VIOLATIONS, 500+ STRIKES, 300+ KILLED
🚨 BREAKING: WEEKEND ESCALATION PATTERN EMERGING
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS (September 20-21):
- Hezbollah Diplomatic Move: Sheikh Naim Qassem calls for “new page” with Saudi Arabia amid regional tensions
- European Impact: Major European airports hit by cyber disruptions, possibly related to regional tensions
- French Position: Macron takes risk with Palestinian statehood recognition, increasing Middle East involvement
- IDF Operations: Yesterday targeted Hezbollah operative in Khardali conducting surveillance on Israeli troops
- Drone Incident: Israeli crashed drone exploded during Lebanese Army inspection in Naqoura, wounding two personnel
CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS SUMMARY:
- 4,500 violations by Israel documented by Lebanese Army (as of September 19)
- 500+ airstrikes conducted by IDF since November 27, 2024 ceasefire
- 300+ operatives killed according to Israeli claims
- 83+ civilians killed according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health
- Daily strikes continue despite international condemnation
INFRASTRUCTURE CATASTROPHE:
- Nationwide blackout ongoing since August 17, 2024
- EDL provides: 2-6 hours daily when fuel available (average 2-3 hours)
- Private generators: Essential for survival, costly and polluting
- Solar capacity: Increasing but insufficient for national needs
- Essential services: Airport, water pumps, sewage systems dependent on generators
🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY STATUS – SEPTEMBER 21, 2025
BEIRUT 🏙️
Index Reading: 73/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Diplomatic Tensions
Capital avoiding direct strikes but political crisis deepening. US envoy Tom Barack’s “be civilised” comment to reporters continues causing diplomatic friction. Government maintains year-end deadline for Hezbollah disarmament despite walkout of 5 Shia cabinet ministers.
Infrastructure crisis continues with only 2-3 hours of state electricity daily on average. Essential facilities including airport rely on generators. Lebanese pound stable at 89,500 LBP/USD but cumulative GDP loss since 2019 reaches 40%.
Hezbollah’s planned September 25 projection of Nasrallah/Safieddine images on Raouche Rock creating political tensions with MPs calling it “partisan propaganda.”
Key Factor: Political deadlock over disarmament while basic services collapse.
MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️
Index Reading: 64/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Resource Competition
Region avoiding military action but severe infrastructure strain. Getting approximately 6 hours of electricity daily in better areas, still relying heavily on private generators. Solar installations increasing but remain insufficient for demand.
Tourism sector attempting recovery with limited success. Banking sector implementing reforms slowly under new Central Bank governor. Social tensions rising between locals and displaced populations over scarce resources.
Key Factor: Economic strain from hosting displaced while infrastructure fails.
NORTH LEBANON 🌊
Index Reading: 69/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Security Operations
Tripoli facing 80% poverty rate compounded by electricity crisis. Major drug enforcement success with 64 million Captagon pills seized recently. Pope Leo XIV visit scheduled for end of November providing temporary hope.
City receives only 2-3 hours of state electricity daily. Essential services on generator limits. Crime rising from desperation but army maintaining increased checkpoints following drug busts.
Key Factor: Poverty-driven instability partially contained by security operations.
AKKAR 🌲
Index Reading: 71/100 🟠
Status: High – Border Tensions
Syrian border volatile with cross-border smuggling networks resilient despite enforcement. August destruction of Yammoune Captagon facility through Iraqi cooperation shows counter-narcotics progress but networks adapt quickly.
Lebanese Armed Forces struggle with limited resources. Border monitoring equipment frequently non-functional without reliable power. Fuel smuggling increasingly lucrative given energy crisis.
Key Factor: Border security compromised by infrastructure failure and smuggling profits.
BEQAA VALLEY 🍇
Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Strike Target Zone
September 8 strikes killed 5 and wounded 5 in eastern Lebanon. July 15 strikes killed 12 – deadliest since ceasefire. IDF continues targeting alleged Radwan Force compounds and weapons storage despite ceasefire.
Agricultural sector collapsed without power for irrigation or cold storage. Infrastructure devastated with most facilities destroyed. Humanitarian access severely restricted by ongoing operations.
Key Factor: Regular deadly Israeli strikes preventing any recovery efforts.
BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌
Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Primary Military Target
Region endures near-daily Israeli operations. IDF claims over 500 airstrikes killing 300+ operatives since ceasefire. September 8 saw 12 separate attacks with multiple casualties in Hermel/Labweh area.
Population trapped between Israeli strikes and Lebanese Army deployment attempts. Infrastructure non-functional with complete generator dependence. All economic activity ceased.
Key Factor: Epicenter of Israeli military campaign with hundreds killed.
KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️
Index Reading: 59/100 🟡
Status: Moderate – Relative Stability
Best security conditions nationwide but severe economic challenges. Some areas receiving 8-12 hours electricity daily – best in country. Tourism operating at minimal capacity with establishments struggling.
Serving as refuge for displaced from south, straining local infrastructure. Social tensions emerging between communities over generator access and fuel supplies.
Key Factor: Safe haven status creating unsustainable population pressure.
SOUTH LEBANON 🌴
Index Reading: 96/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – ACTIVE WAR ZONE
Israeli forces conducting daily operations. Yesterday’s strike in Khardali killed Hezbollah operative allegedly conducting surveillance. Crashed Israeli drone explosion wounded 2 Lebanese Army personnel in Naqoura during inspection.
4,500 ceasefire violations documented. Israel maintains 5 military positions indefinitely in Lebanese territory. Infrastructure destroyed: 27% schools, 33% water facilities. Over 100,000 displaced unable to return.
Key Factor: Active combat zone with daily Israeli military operations.
NABATIEH ⛪
Index Reading: 94/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Continuous Strikes
June attacks killed 1 and injured 21 – one of biggest since ceasefire. IDF continues strikes claiming to target underground Hezbollah sites. September 18-19 strikes hit Meiss el-Jabal, Kfar Tebnit, Debbin with mass evacuations.
Over 27% of Marjayoun district buildings damaged/destroyed. 60 schools destroyed since September 2024. Healthcare collapsed. No electricity since August 2024 blackout.
Key Factor: Systematic destruction preventing any civilian life normalization.
🎯 TODAY’S CRITICAL SECURITY ALERTS – SEPTEMBER 21, 2025
🔥 EXTREME DANGER ZONES – ACTIVE:
AVOID IMMEDIATELY:
- Khardali – Strike yesterday killed operative, follow-up likely
- Naqoura – Drone explosion site, heightened military activity
- Meiss el-Jabal – Repeated strikes this week
- Kfar Tebnit – Active target zone
- Debbin – Multiple recent raids
- All border areas within 20km – Daily violations ongoing
- Hermel/Labweh corridor – Pattern of deadly strikes
HIGH RISK – WEEKEND PATTERN:
- Bekaa Valley – Historical weekend escalation
- Nabatieh district – Continuous targeting
- Beirut southern suburbs – Possible expansion
- Main evacuation routes – Vulnerability to strikes
- Any alleged Hezbollah infrastructure
⚠️ INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS STATUS:
ELECTRICITY EMERGENCY:
- Blackout Duration: 13+ months since August 17, 2024
- State Power: 2-6 hours daily (average 2-3 hours)
- Best Areas: Parts of Keserwan-Jbeil (8-12 hours)
- Generator Dependence: 95% of functioning facilities
- Solar Growth: Insufficient despite expansion
CRITICAL FAILURES:
- Water pumping stations operate 2-3 hours daily
- Sewage systems backing up nationwide
- Hospitals on emergency generator protocols
- Airport operations severely compromised
- Telecommunications degrading rapidly
📱 CRITICAL SURVIVAL GUIDANCE – SEPTEMBER 21
🏠 FOR RESIDENTS – WEEKEND ALERT:
SOUTHERN LEBANON:
- Weekend historically sees escalation – prepare NOW
- Do NOT approach yesterday’s strike sites
- Secondary strikes often follow within 48-72 hours
- Keep vehicles fueled above 75% always
- Emergency bags at all exits
BEIRUT/URBAN AREAS:
- September 25 Raouche Rock event – avoid area
- Secure weekend supplies TODAY before closures
- Fill all water containers during morning supply
- ATMs often empty by Friday evening – get cash NOW
- Generator schedules change on weekends – verify
SURVIVAL ESSENTIALS:
- Electricity: Plan all activities around 2-3 hour windows
- Water: Store during morning pressure periods
- Food: Non-perishables only without reliable refrigeration
- Medicine: All prescriptions for 60+ days
- Cash: $2,500+ minimum in small bills
- Fuel: Never below half tank, generators need reserves
🏢 BUSINESS REALITY – SEPTEMBER 21:
OPERATIONAL FACTS:
- Without generators: Cannot operate
- With generators: Fuel costs exceed most revenues
- Banking: Extreme withdrawal limits continue
- Supply chains: Completely disrupted
- Security: Essential for any assets
ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
- Exchange: 89,500 LBP/USD (relatively stable)
- Inflation: 14.3% (down from 200%+)
- GDP: -40% cumulative collapse since 2019
- Unemployment: 30%+ officially, likely higher
- Power costs: Generator electricity 10x grid price
🚗 MOVEMENT PROTOCOLS – LIVE:
ABSOLUTELY AVOID:
- Khardali area – Yesterday’s strike zone
- Naqoura – Drone explosion site
- ALL South Lebanon – Active operations
- Bekaa Valley – Weekend strike pattern
- Border regions within 25km
CHECKPOINT UPDATE:
- Increased searches after drone incident
- Document requirements stricter
- Fuel stations: 80% closed or rationing
- Cash only at most locations
- Evacuation routes congested Fridays
🔮 48-72 HOUR FORECAST – CRITICAL
Predicted Index: 87-91/100
Trend: ⬆️ WEEKEND ESCALATION LIKELY
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS:
- Weekend strikes probable – Historical pattern shows Friday-Sunday escalation
- Hezbollah restraint weakening – 4,500 violations testing limits
- September 25 tensions – Raouche Rock projection controversy
- Diplomatic pressure ineffective – France/US efforts failing
- Infrastructure deterioration – Power situation worsening
CRITICAL RISKS NEXT 72 HOURS:
- Strikes expanding beyond current zones
- Hezbollah response after 300+ killed
- Civil unrest over electricity crisis
- Medical emergency surge from power failures
- Mass displacement if strikes intensify
- Regional actors potentially intervening
📊 REALITY ASSESSMENT – HARSH TRUTHS
MILITARY SITUATION:
- 4,500 ceasefire violations – Average 25+ daily
- 500+ airstrikes in 10 months of “ceasefire”
- 300+ killed by Israeli operations
- 83+ civilians dead including women and children
- 5 Israeli positions occupied permanently
- Zero enforcement of ceasefire terms
POLITICAL PARALYSIS:
- Disarmament deadline: December 31, 2025 (unlikely)
- Cabinet crisis: 5 ministers boycotting
- Hezbollah stance: Will not disarm voluntarily
- International failure: Condemnations without action
- Lebanese Army: Cannot stop violations
- UN monitoring: Completely ineffective
INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE:
- 13+ months without reliable electricity
- 2-3 hours average daily power
- 95% generator dependent for any electricity
- Water crisis: Pumps failing nationwide
- Sewage disaster: Systems backing up
- Healthcare emergency: Hospitals on limits
HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE:
- 562,000 fled to Syria during escalation
- 100,000+ still displaced internally
- 80% poverty rate and rising
- $40 billion cumulative losses
- 60 schools destroyed in south
- 27% buildings damaged in border areas
🛡️ CIS SECURITY: OPERATING WHEN OTHERS CANNOT
35 Years Through Every Crisis – Never Abandoned Lebanon
While 4,500 ceasefire violations continue and infrastructure collapses, CIS Security maintains full operational capability.
TODAY’S CRITICAL SERVICES:
WEEKEND SECURITY ENHANCEMENT:
- Increased patrols for escalation pattern
- Strike monitoring 24/7 through weekend
- Evacuation teams pre-positioned
- Medical units on high alert
- Safe house network activated
INFRASTRUCTURE INDEPENDENCE:
- Triple-redundant power systems operational
- 60-day fuel reserves maintained
- Water purification running continuously
- Satellite communications primary mode
- Solar/battery backup for all systems
REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE:
- Israeli movement patterns tracked
- Checkpoint status updated hourly
- Fuel availability mapped daily
- Safe corridor analysis continuous
- Threat assessment every 4 hours
CRISIS RESPONSE CAPABILITY:
- Armored vehicles fueled and ready
- Extraction routes updated for weekend
- Medical trauma teams embedded
- International evacuation coordinated
- Family reunification protocols active
24/7 CRISIS CENTER – FULLY POWERED
Despite 13+ months of national blackout, we never stopped
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE: +961-3-539900
Satellite phones ensure connection when networks fail
WhatsApp Emergency: Monitored continuously
Secure Portal: www.cissecurity.net
Crisis Email: emergency@cissecurity.net
GPS Tracking: Active for all clients
Response Times TODAY:
- Beirut: 10 minutes
- Mount Lebanon: 15 minutes
- Safe zones: 20 minutes
- Conflict areas: When accessible
- Extraction planning: Immediate
⚠️ CRITICAL ALERT – SEPTEMBER 21, 2025
LEBANON: CEASEFIRE FICTION – ACTIVE WAR REALITY
THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE:
- 4,500 Israeli violations documented
- 500+ airstrikes during “ceasefire”
- 300+ killed in operations
- 83+ civilians dead including children
- 13+ months without reliable power
- 2-3 hours electricity daily
THIS WEEKEND’S RISKS:
- Historical escalation pattern for Fridays-Sundays
- Yesterday’s strikes likely to see follow-up
- Hezbollah restraint at breaking point
- Infrastructure cannot deteriorate much further
- Mass casualty event increasingly probable
SURVIVAL PRIORITIES:
- Avoid ALL conflict zones this weekend
- Secure 72-hour supplies immediately
- Fuel vehicles and generators TODAY
- Update evacuation plans for family
- Monitor news constantly for strikes
- Keep emergency bags at all exits
THIS IS NOT POST-WAR – THIS IS ACTIVE CONFLICT
🔍 CIS SECURITY LEBANON – WHEN THE STATE FAILS
Protecting Lebanon Since 1990 – Through Every Catastrophe
When others evacuate, we deploy. When infrastructure collapses, we maintain capability. When the world watches, we act.
Our Unique Position: ✅ Only firm operating despite 13-month blackout
✅ Access to all areas including strike zones
✅ International extraction partnerships active
✅ Medical teams with combat experience
✅ Intelligence network functioning nationwide
✅ Generator-independent indefinitely
Our Promise: Your security doesn’t depend on failed ceasefires or collapsed infrastructure.
📞 Emergency: +961-3-539900
💬 WhatsApp: 24/7 monitored
🌐 Portal: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Crisis: info@cissecurity.net
When Lebanon cannot protect you, CIS Security will.
Report Timestamp: 06:00 Beirut Time, September 21, 2025
Next Update: Every 4 hours or immediately upon escalation
Current Status: CRITICAL – Weekend escalation pattern active
