CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Saturday, Sept 27 2025

🇱🇧CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 27 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 82/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ IMMINENT ESCALATION – IRANIAN INTERVENTION, CEASEFIRE IN COLLAPSE

🚨 BREAKING: SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27 DEVELOPMENTS

🇮🇷 IRANIAN SECURITY CHIEF ALI LARIJANI ARRIVES IN BEIRUT

• Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, arrived in Beirut this morning at the official invitation of Hezbollah .
• His visit is to attend the first anniversary memorial ceremonies for assassinated Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine [[11], [13], [14]].
• In his first statements, Larijani reaffirmed Tehran’s “unwavering support for Lebanon’s sovereignty and resistance” and urged regional unity against Israel [[5], [18]].
• He has already met with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and is scheduled to hold talks with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam [[10], [15], [19]].

💥 HEZBOLLAH DEFIANCE CONTINUES

• On Friday, September 26, Hezbollah defied a direct ban from the Prime Minister and illuminated Beirut’s iconic Raouche sea rock with images of its slain leaders [[41], [43]].
• This act of political theater marks the start of an 18-day series of commemorative ceremonies that will run until October 12 .

💣 ISRAELI CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS PERSIST

• The Lebanese Army has documented over 4,500 Israeli violations of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement .
• Most recently, Israeli warplanes struck the eastern Bekaa province on Friday, in a fresh breach of the truce .
• Between September 15 and 21 alone, Israeli operations killed 11 individuals, including 7 Hezbollah operatives .
• In southern Lebanon, Israel has destroyed over 580 structures (52% of all buildings in some municipalities) since September 26, 2024 .

💹 LEBANESE POUND EXCHANGE RATE

• As of 02:50 PDT on September 27, 2025, the official parallel market rate is 89,550 LBP per US Dollar .

🌡️ REAL-TIME GOVERNORATE SECURITY STATUS

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 75/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Foreign Power Proxy Standoff
Beirut is now the epicenter of a direct geopolitical confrontation. The presence of Iran’s Larijani for the Hezbollah memorial ceremonies, following the US envoy’s visit, has turned the capital into a high-stakes diplomatic and security flashpoint.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – ACTIVE DEMOLITION ZONE
The systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure by Israeli forces continues, with over half of all structures in some areas now destroyed, making return impossible for the displaced .

BAALBEK-HERMEL & BEQAA VALLEY 🕌🍇

Index Reading: 84/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Strike Corridors
The Friday airstrikes in the Bekaa confirm these regions remain primary targets for Israeli operations . As Hezbollah strongholds, they are central to the current crisis.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Total Infrastructure Collapse
This governorate remains devastated, with no meaningful progress on reconstruction or the return of its displaced population.

MOUNT LEBANON, NORTH, AKKAR, KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index Readings: 55–65/100 🟡
Status: Elevated to Moderate – Spillover Risk
These regions are on high alert as the national crisis deepens. The 18-day Hezbollah commemoration period increases the risk of nationwide unrest or a security crackdown.

🎯 IMMEDIATE DANGER ALERTS – SEPTEMBER 27

🔥 ACTIVE THREATS TODAY:

1. Beirut (Raouche & Dahieh): High risk of protests, surveillance, or retaliatory actions during the memorial period.
2. Southern Lebanon: Active demolitions and drone surveillance make all movement extremely hazardous.
3. Bekaa Valley: A fresh strike zone from Friday’s attacks; expect follow-up operations.
4. All Hezbollah Strongholds: Potential for Israeli preemptive strikes in response to the high-profile Iranian visit.

⚠️ INCIDENTS LAST 24 HOURS:

• Morning, Sept 27: Ali Larijani arrives in Beirut and meets with Speaker Nabih Berri [[10], [15]].
• Evening, Sept 26: Raouche Rock illuminated in defiance of the PM’s ban [[41], [43]].
• Friday, Sept 26: Israeli warplanes strike eastern Bekaa .

🔮 24–72 HOUR FORECAST

Predicted Index: 83–88/100
Trend: ⬆️ DANGEROUS ESCALATION IMMINENT

Critical Developments Expected:

1. Major Hezbollah Address: A senior leader is expected to deliver a speech during the memorial events, likely rejecting disarmament and vowing continued resistance.
2. Israeli Military Response: A significant Israeli strike on a symbolic or strategic target is highly probable in response to the Iranian show of force.
3. Political Crisis: The Lebanese government is caught in an impossible position, risking collapse if it is forced to choose between its international obligations and domestic armed groups.

Major Risks This Weekend:

• A direct Hezbollah-Israel exchange of fire that breaks the ceasefire wide open.
• Mass protests or a security crackdown in Beirut.
• A humanitarian corridor closure due to active hostilities.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: MAXIMUM ALERT PROTOCOLS ACTIVE

In light of today’s Iranian intervention and the ongoing Israeli demolitions, CIS Security has elevated all operations to Level-1 Critical.

EMERGENCY SERVICES ON STANDBY:

• Executive Protection Teams: Deployed in Beirut for diplomatic and high-net-worth clients.
• Medical Evacuation: On high alert for potential mass-casualty events in the south or Bekaa.
• Intelligence Monitoring: Tracking Iranian delegation movements and Israeli military communications in real-time.

CRISIS HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
24/7 response for all emergencies.

“When foreign powers turn your capital into a chessboard, your personal security becomes a matter of survival, not convenience.”
— CIS Security Command, Beirut

The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ represents Lebanon’s first comprehensive daily security assessment system, providing real-time threat analysis across all nine governorates. Our proprietary 0-100 security rating scale combines 35+ years of operational expertise with advanced intelligence gathering to deliver accurate, actionable security insights for Lebanese residents, businesses, and international organizations. Updated daily at 8:00 AM, this revolutionary security intelligence platform has become the trusted source for security decision-making throughout Lebanon.