CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Oct 23 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL – RADWAN COMMANDER KILLED & NABATIEH STRIKES CONTINUE
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 88/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ➡️ SYSTEMATIC VIOLATIONS – ELITE FORCE TARGETING AMID LAF DISARMAMENT

🚨 BREAKING: WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23 – RADWAN FORCE COMMANDER DEATH & INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

TUESDAY’S RADWAN FORCE COMMANDER KILLED: Israeli strike Tuesday killed Issa Ahmad Karbala, Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force commander in Nabatieh, with IDF stating he was “involved in moving weapons and advancing attacks against Israel” in violation of ceasefire – marking highest-profile operational commander death since ceasefire.

TUESDAY’S NABATIEH INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES: Israeli forces targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Nabatieh area Tuesday, with IDF announcing “Hezbollah continues attempting to reestablish terror infrastructure sites across Lebanon” in ceasefire violation, vowing to “remove any threat.”

600 IDF STRIKES SINCE CEASEFIRE: Israel has carried out 600 strikes in southern Lebanon, Beqaa Valley, and Beirut since November 27, 2024 ceasefire, with 48% south of Litani River, targeting Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts per Israeli military analysis.

MONDAY’S MULTIPLE RAIDS: Israeli forces conducted at least 8 raids Monday targeting southern Lebanon zones including Mahmoudiya-Jarmaq (3 strikes), Al-Jarmaq (5 strikes), plus Ali al-Taher forest near Nabatieh and Iqlim al-Tuffah region.

LAF SUCCESS: 10,000 ROCKETS & 400 MISSILES REMOVED: US Central Command confirmed Lebanese Armed Forces successfully removed nearly 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance during past year with CENTCOM praising “Lebanese partners lead way ensuring disarmament successful.”

OVER 270 KILLED SINCE CEASEFIRE: Lebanon’s health ministry reports more than 270 people killed and around 850 wounded by Israeli military actions since November 2024 ceasefire, with UN verifying 107 civilian/noncombatant deaths as of October 9.

IDF: 300+ HEZBOLLAH OPERATIVES KILLED: Israeli military states it has killed over 300 Hezbollah operatives in strikes since ceasefire, conducting over 1,000 raids and small operations in southern Lebanon while maintaining 5 strategic positions.

LARGEST IDF DRILL IN TWO YEARS: Israeli 91st “Galilee” Division conducting first full division-level drill since war started, simulating fighting along Lebanon border from Sunday through Thursday this week – demonstrating continued military readiness.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Elite Commander Death Despite LAF Success. The capital coordinates complex environment as LAF removes 10,000 rockets successfully while Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander killing and 600 total strikes since ceasefire demonstrate continuing operations.

Government facilities manage unprecedented transition with LAF’s successful removal of massive weapons cache while Tuesday’s high-profile Radwan commander death and 270+ killed since ceasefire show systematic targeting continuing.

The combination of LAF’s documented disarmament success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000 ordnance), Tuesday’s Radwan commander death, 600 strikes since ceasefire, and 270+ deaths creates critical ongoing environment.

Economic activities face mixed signals from LAF’s massive disarmament achievement while Tuesday’s elite commander killing and 600 total strikes demonstrate continuing military operations.

Security coordination advances with LAF’s removal of 10,000 rockets while managing Tuesday’s Radwan commander death and 270+ killed since ceasefire.

Key Factor: Capital coordinating LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal success despite Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death and 600 strikes since ceasefire.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 61/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Success Amid Elite Commander Targeting. The governorate observes LAF’s massive weapons removal while processing Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death and 600 total strikes.

Tourism sector experiences cautious improvement from LAF’s documented removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles while Tuesday’s high-profile killing maintains elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from LAF’s successful disarmament while 600 strikes since ceasefire and 270+ deaths demonstrate continuing challenges.

Regional communities observe LAF’s weapons cache removal with hope while Tuesday’s Radwan commander death indicates elite force targeting continuing.

Key Factor: Regional cautious optimism from LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal despite Tuesday’s elite commander killing and 600 total strikes.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 68/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Disarmament Success Amid Continuing Strikes. Tripoli and surrounding areas face measured improvement from LAF’s removal of 10,000 rockets while 600 strikes since ceasefire continue.

The region observes LAF’s massive weapons removal achievement while Tuesday’s Radwan commander death and 600 total strikes show operations persisting.

Port operations experience cautious stabilization from LAF’s documented success while 270+ killed since ceasefire and 600 strikes underscore fragile environment.

Cross-border dynamics face complexity from LAF’s weapons removal progress while 600 strikes and elite commander targeting indicate challenges persisting.

Key Factor: Regional measured improvement from LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal while 600 strikes since ceasefire maintain elevated status.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 65/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Weapons Removal Success. The Syrian border region faces cautious outlook from LAF’s massive disarmament achievement while processing 600 total strikes since ceasefire.

Local communities observe LAF’s removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles with measured optimism while 600 strikes demonstrate operations continuing.

Border security operations monitor LAF’s successful removal of 205,000 ordnance as stabilizing while 270+ killed since ceasefire demonstrates systematic pattern.

Agricultural activities proceed with improved outlook from LAF’s weapons removal success while Tuesday’s elite commander death maintains elevated concerns.

Key Factor: Border area cautious improvement from LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal while 600 strikes since ceasefire demonstrate continuing operations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 86/100 🔴
Status: Critical – 600 Strikes Include Beqaa Targets Amid LAF Progress. The valley faces maximum crisis as 48% of 600 strikes targeted south of Litani while Beqaa Valley also among strike zones despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

Israeli 600 strikes since ceasefire include Beqaa Valley targets demonstrating valley remains active zone despite LAF’s massive weapons removal success.

Agricultural activities face uncertainty from being among 600 strike zones while LAF’s weapons removal offers potential stabilization path.

Local communities navigate environment where LAF removes 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles but 600 strikes and 270+ deaths show operations persisting.

The convergence of LAF’s disarmament success, 600 strikes including Beqaa, and 270+ deaths since ceasefire creates critical environment.

Key Factor: Valley experiencing critical status from being among 600 strike zones despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Regional Strike Pattern Amid Disarmament. The region faces maximum tensions from being among 600 strike zones since ceasefire despite LAF’s weapons removal success.

The region observes its territory among 600 total strike zones demonstrating attacks continue despite LAF’s massive weapons removal (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles).

Infrastructure development faces complex environment from LAF’s disarmament advancement while 600 strikes and 270+ deaths demonstrate continuing operations.

Cultural sites experience tension from regional targeting while LAF’s successful removal of 205,000 ordnance offers potential stabilization path.

Traditional community structures observe LAF’s weapons removal with cautious hope while 600 strikes and elite commander death demonstrate continued operations.

Key Factor: Maximum tension from being among 600 strike zones despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 62/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Disarmament Success. The coastal governorate processes LAF’s massive weapons removal while managing 600 strikes since ceasefire.

Tourism activities face improved outlook from LAF’s documented removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles while 600 strikes and 270+ deaths maintain elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from LAF’s successful disarmament while Tuesday’s Radwan commander death demonstrates elite targeting continuing.

The region experiences cautious stabilization from LAF’s weapons cache removal while 600 strikes and largest IDF drill in two years show military activity continuing.

Key Factor: Local cautious improvement from LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal while 600 strikes since ceasefire maintain elevated status.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 95/100 🔴
STATUS: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS – RADWAN COMMANDER KILLED & 48% OF 600 STRIKES HERE. The south faces ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM DANGER from Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death, 48% of 600 strikes concentrated south of Litani, and Monday’s 8+ raids despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

TUESDAY’S RADWAN COMMANDER KILLING of Issa Ahmad Karbala represents highest-profile operational commander death since ceasefire, with IDF stating involvement in weapons movement and attack planning.

48% OF 600 STRIKES (288 STRIKES) south of Litani River since ceasefire demonstrates concentrated operations in south despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal success.

Emergency services operate under ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to Tuesday’s elite commander death, 288 strikes south of Litani, Monday’s 8+ raids while processing LAF’s disarmament success.

Civilian populations face ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from 270+ killed since ceasefire with 107 verified civilian/noncombatant deaths, concentrated strike pattern, and elite force targeting.

IDF MAINTAINS 5 STRATEGIC POSITIONS in southern Lebanon while conducting 1,000+ raids and small operations since ceasefire demonstrating continuing ground presence.

The combination of Tuesday’s Radwan commander death, 288 strikes south of Litani (48% of 600 total), Monday’s raids, LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal, and 270+ deaths creates ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM danger.

Key Factor: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS from Tuesday’s elite Radwan commander killing and 288 strikes south of Litani despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Radwan Commander Death in Nabatieh Area Tuesday. The governorate faces maximum security crisis from Tuesday’s strike killing Radwan Force commander Issa Ahmad Karbala plus Monday’s infrastructure strikes in territory.

Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death occurred in Nabatieh area marking highest-profile operational killing since ceasefire within governorate territory.

Community services face extreme pressure from Tuesday’s elite commander death, Monday’s infrastructure strikes, and 600 total strikes since ceasefire.

Medical facilities coordinate emergency response while managing transition environment from LAF’s massive disarmament success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles removed).

Local communities experience maximum vulnerability from Tuesday’s high-profile territorial killing and Monday’s infrastructure strikes amid 270+ total deaths since ceasefire.

Key Factor: Maximum vulnerability from Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death in Nabatieh area plus Monday’s infrastructure strikes.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – ELITE FORCE TARGETING AMID DISARMAMENT

🔴 CRITICAL IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS:

Tuesday’s Elite Commander Killing (October 22):

1. RADWAN FORCE COMMANDER KILLED – Issa Ahmad Karbala highest-profile operational death
2. NABATIEH INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES – IDF targets “reestablishment attempts”
3. WEAPONS MOVEMENT INVOLVEMENT – Commander cited for “advancing attacks against Israel”
4. CEASEFIRE VIOLATION CITED – IDF states “presence of terror infrastructure violates understandings”
5. ELITE FORCE TARGETING – Radwan Force operational commander represents significant elimination

600 Strikes Since Ceasefire Analysis:

1. 600 TOTAL STRIKES – Southern Lebanon, Beqaa Valley, and Beirut targeted
2. 288 STRIKES SOUTH OF LITANI – 48% of strikes concentrated in 1701 area
3. RECONSTRUCTION TARGETING – Strikes against Hezbollah “reestablishment efforts”
4. 300+ OPERATIVES KILLED – IDF statement on Hezbollah casualties
5. 1,000+ RAIDS CONDUCTED – Small operations and ground activities

LAF Disarmament Success:

1. 10,000 ROCKETS REMOVED – LAF successfully removed nearly 10,000 rockets
2. 400 MISSILES DISMANTLED – Almost 400 missiles removed during past year
3. 205,000 ORDNANCE CLEARED – Unexploded ordnance fragments removed
4. CENTCOM PRAISE – “Lebanese partners lead way ensuring disarmament successful”
5. MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT – Unprecedented weapons cache removal documented

Casualties Since Ceasefire:

1. 270+ KILLED – Lebanese health ministry total since November ceasefire
2. 850 WOUNDED – Approximately 850 injured by Israeli actions
3. 107 CIVILIANS VERIFIED – UN confirmed civilian/noncombatant deaths by October 9
4. 300+ HEZBOLLAH OPERATIVES – IDF states killed since ceasefire
5. SYSTEMATIC PATTERN – Near-daily operations throughout 11-month period

🔴 COMPLEX TRANSITION FACTORS:

Unprecedented Environment:

1. LAF’s 10,000 Rockets Removal – Massive disarmament success
2. 600 Strikes Since Ceasefire – 48% south of Litani River
3. Tuesday’s Radwan Commander – Elite force operational leader killed
4. 270+ Deaths – Systematic casualties since November
5. IDF Drill – Largest division exercise in two years

⚠️ COMPLEX TRANSITION ASSESSMENT:

• LAF’s Massive Success – 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000 ordnance removed
• 600 Strikes Since Ceasefire – 48% concentrated south of Litani
• Tuesday’s Elite Death – Radwan Force commander highest-profile killing
• 270+ Killed – Systematic toll since November 2024
• 5 Strategic Positions – IDF maintains ground presence in south

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – ELITE TARGETING PERIOD

🏠 RESIDENT SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS:

CRITICAL TRANSITION – LAF SUCCESS BUT 600 STRIKES & ELITE TARGETING: Lebanon experiences critical transition with LAF successfully removing 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000 ordnance, while Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death and 600 strikes since ceasefire (48% south of Litani) demonstrate continuing operations targeting elite forces.

IMMEDIATE SECURITY ACTIONS:

• NABATIEH EXTREME CAUTION – Tuesday’s Radwan commander death zone
• SOUTHERN LEBANON MAXIMUM VIGILANCE – 288 strikes (48% of 600) south of Litani
• ELITE FORCE PERSONNEL VULNERABILITY – Radwan commander killing demonstrates targeting
• BEQAA VALLEY AWARENESS – Among 600 strike zones since ceasefire
• LAF PROGRESS RECOGNITION – 10,000 rockets removed demonstrates advancing disarmament

INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONAL VULNERABILITY: LAF’s massive weapons removal offers major achievement while 600 strikes since ceasefire and Tuesday’s elite commander death demonstrate continuing operations.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATION RECOMMENDATIONS:

TRANSITION PROTOCOLS:

• SOUTHERN OPERATIONS MAXIMUM CAUTION – 288 strikes south of Litani concentrated
• NABATIEH OPERATIONS REVIEW – Tuesday’s elite commander death area
• RECONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY MONITORING – IDF targets “reestablishment attempts”
• LAF PROGRESS TRACKING – 10,000 rockets removal coordination
• ELITE PERSONNEL PROTECTION – Radwan commander death demonstrates targeting

🚗 TRAVEL SECURITY STATUS:

MAXIMUM CAUTION – 600 STRIKES & ELITE TARGETING CONTINUING: LAF’s removal of 10,000 rockets demonstrates major progress while 600 strikes since ceasefire (48% south of Litani) and Tuesday’s elite commander death require MAXIMUM CAUTION.

ABSOLUTE DANGER ZONES:

• NABATIEH DISTRICT – Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death site
• ENTIRE SOUTH OF LITANI – 288 strikes (48% of 600) concentrated here
• BEQAA VALLEY – Among 600 strike zones since ceasefire
• BEIRUT STRIKE ZONES – Part of 600 total strikes pattern
• IDF 5 STRATEGIC POSITIONS – Ground presence areas in south

🔮 24-HOUR TRANSITION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 86/100
Forecast Trend: ➡️ MIXED – MAJOR LAF SUCCESS BUT ELITE TARGETING CONTINUING

Transition Developments Probability:

1. Continued Elite Targeting (75% probability) – Radwan commander death pattern
2. Additional Strikes South of Litani (85% probability) – 288 strikes (48%) pattern
3. LAF Disarmament Advancement (80% probability) – 10,000 rockets removal continuing
4. Infrastructure Targeting (70% probability) – “Reestablishment attempts” cited
5. Cautious Progress Path (75% probability) – Despite 600 strikes continuing

Critical Monitoring Factors: Elite force targeting, daily strike incidents south of Litani, LAF disarmament pace, 600 strikes pattern continuation, IDF drill completion.

Stabilization Factors: Successful LAF disarmament continuation, strike cessation, IDF withdrawal from 5 positions, elite targeting halt, sovereignty restoration.

📊 ELITE TARGETING ANALYSIS

Today’s Security Level: Critical – 600 Strikes & Radwan Commander Death Despite LAF Success
Change from Previous Assessment: -1 point (Slight improvement from previous day)
Crisis Trend: Transition with Major Disarmament and Elite Force Targeting
Assessment: Lebanon experiences critical transition with LAF successfully removing 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000 ordnance demonstrating major disarmament achievement, while Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death, 600 strikes since ceasefire (48% south of Litani), and 270+ killed demonstrate continuing operations targeting elite forces within systematic pattern.

Strategic Elite Targeting Analysis: Tuesday’s Israeli strike killed Issa Ahmad Karbala, Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force commander in Nabatieh, representing highest-profile operational commander death since November 2024 ceasefire, with IDF stating he was “involved in moving weapons and advancing attacks against Israel” in ceasefire violation.

Israel has carried out 600 strikes in southern Lebanon, Beqaa Valley, and Beirut since November 27, 2024 ceasefire, with 48% (288 strikes) south of Litani River in UN resolution 1701 area, targeting Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts and infrastructure “reestablishment attempts.”

Lebanese Armed Forces successfully removed nearly 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance fragments during past year, with US CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stating “Our Lebanese partners continue to lead the way in ensuring disarmament of Lebanese Hezbollah is successful.”

Israeli military states it has killed over 300 Hezbollah operatives in strikes since ceasefire while conducting over 1,000 raids and small operations in southern Lebanon, maintaining 5 strategic positions along border.

Lebanon’s health ministry reports more than 270 people killed and around 850 wounded by Israeli military actions since ceasefire, with UN verifying 107 civilian/noncombatant deaths as of October 9.

Israeli 91st “Galilee” Division conducting first full division-level drill since war started, simulating fighting along Lebanon border through Thursday this week, demonstrating continued military readiness despite ceasefire.

The convergence of LAF’s massive disarmament success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000 ordnance), Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death, 600 strikes since ceasefire (288 south of Litani), 270+ killed, and continuing elite targeting creates critical transitional environment with major progress alongside systematic operations.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: ELITE TARGETING MAXIMUM PROTOCOLS

🔴 CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT – LAF’S 10,000 ROCKETS REMOVAL & RADWAN COMMANDER DEATH

During Lebanon’s critical transition with LAF removing 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles, Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death, and 600 strikes since ceasefire, CIS Security maintains maximum protocols.

TRANSITION PERIOD SERVICES:

LAF Disarmament Coordination:

• 10,000 Rockets Removal Monitoring – Massive weapons cache progress tracking
• CENTCOM Developments – “Disarmament successful” coordination
• 400 Missiles Dismantling – Progress documentation and security
• 205,000 Ordnance Clearance – Unexploded fragments removal support

Elite Targeting Response:

• Radwan Commander Death Analysis – Tuesday’s Nabatieh killing coordination
• Elite Force Personnel Protection – High-profile targeting protocols
• 600 Strikes Pattern Monitoring – 48% south of Litani tracking
• 270+ Casualties Coordination – Systematic toll since ceasefire documentation

🔴 TRANSITION CRISIS CONTACT – MAXIMUM ALERT

EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTER: +961-3-539900
Maximum protocols for LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal and elite force targeting

LAF COORDINATION: 10,000 rockets removal progress monitoring
ELITE TARGETING ANALYSIS: Radwan commander death pattern tracking
600 STRIKES MONITORING: 48% south of Litani concentration coordination

During Lebanon’s transition with LAF’s massive weapons removal and elite force targeting, CIS Security provides maximum protection.

⚠️ ELITE TARGETING NOTICE

CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT: Lebanon experiences unprecedented transition with Lebanese Armed Forces successfully removing 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000 unexploded ordnance demonstrating major disarmament achievement with CENTCOM praise, while Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death (highest-profile operational killing), 600 strikes since ceasefire (48% south of Litani), and 270+ killed demonstrate continuing elite force targeting and systematic operations within transition period requiring maximum security protocols.

Update Frequency: Real-time monitoring during elite targeting period. Alerts: Immediate updates for LAF disarmament and high-profile targeting.

LAF SUCCESS NOTICE: CENTCOM confirms LAF successfully removed 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000 ordnance marking unprecedented disarmament achievement.

TUESDAY’S ELITE DEATH: Radwan Force commander Issa Ahmad Karbala killed in Nabatieh area representing highest-profile operational commander death since ceasefire.

Professional Transition Statement: CIS Security maintains maximum capabilities during unprecedented transition with LAF’s massive weapons removal (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000 ordnance) and Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death demonstrating elite targeting pattern. Our commitment to all personnel safety remains absolute during critical disarmament phase with 600 strikes since ceasefire and systematic operations continuing.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Protection During Elite Targeting Period”

During Lebanon’s unprecedented transition with LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal success, Tuesday’s Radwan commander death, and 600 strikes since ceasefire, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years expertise.

CIS Security Elite Targeting Period Services:

• LAF Success Coordination – 10,000 rockets removal monitoring and support
• Elite Targeting Analysis – Tuesday’s Radwan commander death pattern tracking
• 600 Strikes Monitoring – 48% south of Litani concentration coordination
• 270+ Casualties Documentation – Systematic toll since ceasefire tracking
• IDF Drill Monitoring – Largest division exercise in two years coordination

Elite Targeting Period Consultation: 📞 24/7 Emergency Command: +961-3-539900
💬 Maximum Transition WhatsApp: Real-time elite targeting crisis coordination
🌐 Emergency Website: www.cissecurity.net

During Lebanon’s critical transition with LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal, Tuesday’s Radwan Force commander death, and 600 strikes since ceasefire, CIS Security provides absolute maximum protection.