CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Nov 18 2025

COMPREHENSIVE EVENING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF & STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

📊 EXECUTIVE SECURITY SUMMARY

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL (89/100)

TREND: ⬆️ SHARP DETERIORATION (Diplomatic Rupture & Mass Casualty Event)

DATE: Tuesday, November 18, 2025 | 22:00 Beirut Time

SITUATION OVERVIEW: THE CEASEFIRE COLLAPSE

The security architecture supporting the November 2024 Ceasefire has effectively collapsed as of this evening. What began as a fragile truce has disintegrated under the weight of two simultaneous escalations—one kinetic and one diplomatic—creating a vacuum of authority that brings Lebanon closer to total conflict than at any point since the cessation of hostilities was signed.

1. Kinetic Escalation (Sidon): A mass-casualty airstrike inside the Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp has shattered the “red lines” regarding targets in dense urban refugee zones. The death toll stands at 11, with fears of secondary unrest spreading to the Lebanese street. This is not merely a tactical strike; it is a strategic signal that “safe zones” no longer exist for any faction aligned with the Resistance Axis.
2. Diplomatic Escalation (Washington): The abrupt cancellation of Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal’s visit to Washington signals a catastrophic breakdown in trust between the US administration and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This removes the “political cover” that has historically protected state institutions from direct targeting by Israeli forces.

The CIS Index has risen to 89/100, a score indicating that state control is localized and sporadic, while asymmetric actors and foreign military operations dictate the security environment. We are witnessing a transition from “ceasefire violations” to “unrestricted low-intensity warfare.”

🚨 DEEP DIVE: THE DIPLOMATIC RUPTURE

EVENT: US Administration Cancels LAF Commander Visit

IMPACT: Strategic Isolation of the Lebanese State

The Incident Analysis

At approximately 16:00 Beirut time, the US Department of State notified the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the scheduled meetings for Gen. Rodolphe Haykal at the Pentagon and State Department were cancelled. The General, who was preparing to depart for Washington to discuss the implementation of the “Five-Phase Disarmament Plan” and a critical $117 million aid package, has suspended the trip indefinitely. This is unprecedented in the post-2006 era of US-Lebanese relations.

The Trigger: “The Sunday Statement”

Diplomatic sources confirm the cancellation was a direct retaliation for the LAF’s official communiqué issued Sunday regarding the attack on UNIFIL.

• The Language: In that statement, the Army Command explicitly blamed the IDF for “deliberately targeting international legitimacy” and rejected the Israeli narrative of “poor weather conditions” causing the tank fire.
• Washington’s View: The US administration viewed this not as a factual field report, but as a political pivot by the Army leadership toward the “Resistance Axis” narrative, abandoning the “neutral arbiter” stance Washington demands for its continued support.

Strategic Implications & Aid At Risk

1. Aid Freeze ($117M vs. $95M): The immediate concern is the status of the $95 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) recently unfrozen by the State Department, plus the additional $117 million discussed in January. If these funds are re-frozen, the LAF’s operational capacity to maintain logistics in the South will degrade within weeks. Fuel, spare parts for logistical trucks, and salaries for deployable units are all dependent on this cash flow.
2. Loss of Immunity: Historically, US support has acted as a shield. An LAF checkpoint or barracks was “off-limits” to Israeli airstrikes because of the American investment in the force. With this diplomatic cover removed, LAF positions near the Blue Line are now at significantly higher risk of being engaged if they are in proximity to Hezbollah movements.
3. Disarmament Stalled: The “Five-Phase Plan” to disarm militias south of the Litani was predicated on US guarantees of safety for the Army. Without Washington’s backing, the LAF cannot risk a confrontation with Hezbollah or Hamas. The Army cannot fight a two-front war (Israel on the border, Hezbollah internally) without superpower support. Therefore, the disarmament plan is effectively frozen.

🚨 DEEP DIVE: THE SIDON MASSACRE

EVENT: Airstrike on Ein el-Hilweh Camp (Sector: Mosque Parking Lot)

CASUALTIES: 11 Killed (Confirmed), 4 Wounded

TARGET: Alleged Hamas Command Node

Operational Forensics

At 14:15, an Israeli Hermes 900 “Kochav” drone fired two precision missiles into a vehicle parked adjacent to the Al-Nour Mosque in the lower sector of Ein el-Hilweh.

• The Platform: The Hermes 900 is a medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV capable of carrying four Hellfire-class missiles. Its use suggests a high-value target requiring long loiter times for positive identification.
• The Location: The Al-Nour Mosque area is traditionally a stronghold of Islamist factions like Osbat al-Ansar and Jund al-Sham, though in recent months, Hamas has reportedly established coordination cells there.
• The Target: Israel claims the strike eliminated a Hamas field commander coordinating with the Jamaa Islamiya. The proximity to the mosque during afternoon prayers contributed to the high civilian death toll.

The “Capital of Diaspora” Context

Ein el-Hilweh is not just a camp; it is a dense urban fortress housing over 80,000 people in less than 1.5 square kilometers. It is a microcosm of the Palestinian political universe.

• The Factional Map: The camp is divided. Fatah controls the northern and upper streets. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have influence in the center. Radical Islamist groups control the southern “Tawari” and “Saffouri” neighborhoods.
• Risk of “Camp Spillover”:
  • Scenario A (Likely): Factions unite in anger. Demonstrations will likely target Lebanese Army checkpoints at the camp entrances (Numayri, Darb el-Sim), demanding the Army use its air defense (which it lacks) to protect the camp.
  • Scenario B (Worst Case): Israel continues targeting the camp. This would force a mass exodus of 50,000+ refugees into Sidon city, collapsing the municipality’s infrastructure and blocking the primary coastal highway to the South—effectively severing the South from Beirut.
  • Internal Strife: There is a risk that Fatah, under pressure from external patrons, will attempt to crackdown on Hamas cells to prevent further Israeli strikes, leading to intra-Palestinian urban warfare similar to the devastating August 2023 clashes.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT GOVERNORATE 🏙️

Index: 80/100 (Critical)

Status: Diplomatic Fallout & Civil Anxiety

• Diplomatic Zone (Awkar/Metn Border): Security forces have established a triple perimeter around the US Embassy in Awkar. Intelligence indicates potential flash-mobs or organized protests tonight in response to the cancellation of the Army Chief’s visit.
• Political Sector: The government is paralyzed. President Joseph Aoun is reportedly holding emergency back-channel talks with French mediators to de-escalate the crisis with Washington. The “sovereignist” bloc is accusing the Army of overstepping its bounds with the Sunday statement, while the “resistance” bloc praises it.
• Civilian Mood: Fear of economic repercussions. The US rift is seen as a precursor to sanctions or a total blockade. Long lines were observed at fuel stations in Ashrafieh this evening as residents panic-buy.
• Operational Note: Avoid the northern highway leading to the US Embassy. Expect sudden “security snaps” (temporary checkpoints) by the ISF in Achrafieh and Ras Beirut to intercept potential protesters.

SOUTH LEBANON (TYRE & SIDON) 🌴

Index: 96/100 (Extreme Danger)

Status: Active Conflict Zone

• Sidon (Saida): The city is effectively closed. Shops shuttered immediately after the Ein el-Hilweh strike. The Coastal Highway (Auto-strade) is open but dangerous; burning tires have been reported near the Hariri Mosque roundabout and the northern entrance near the stadium.
• Tyre (Sour): Following the killing of Principal Shweikh on Sunday, the al-Mansouri area remains a “no-go” zone. Surveillance drones are audible 24/7. Local schools have suspended classes indefinitely.
• UNIFIL Sector: Peacekeepers are confined to bases (Level 3 Alert). No patrols were observed today south of the Litani, ceding the ground entirely to combatants. The Blue Line is currently unmonitored by impartial observers.
• Recommendation: TOTAL FREEZE on movement south of the Awwali River. Any vehicle resembling a military or official transport is a potential target.

NABATIEH GOVERNORATE ⛪

Index: 89/100 (Critical)

Status: Systematic Degradation of Governance

• Targeting Shift: Today’s strike in Bint Jbeil killed a municipal union officer. This marks a shift from targeting military commanders to targeting civil administration. Israel appears to be dismantling the local governance structures that allow Hezbollah to maintain civil control.
• Impact: Local mayors and municipal workers are refusing to use official vehicles. Waste management and water repair services have halted due to fear of being targeted by drones.
• Toul & Kfarsir: These areas (struck last week) remain ghost towns. Residents who returned during the ceasefire are fleeing north again.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index: 84/100 (Critical)

Status: Logistics Under Fire

• Logistics War: With the coastal route compromised by the Sidon tension, the Beqaa highway is the only supply line. However, the Nov 10 strikes on Janta and Shaara Heights prove this route is under fire control.
• Smuggling: The breakdown in LAF-US relations may embolden smugglers on the Syrian border, assuming the LAF will conserve ammunition rather than police the frontier.
• Alert: Expect airstrikes tonight on the Masnaa border crossing environs or illegal crossings in Hermel, as Israel aims to interdict any resupply coming from Syria during this chaotic window.

NORTH LEBANON (TRIPOLI/AKKAR) 🌊

Index: 71/100 (High)

Status: Refugee & Military Tension

• Refugee Alert: The Beddawi and Nahr el-Bared camps are on high alert. Solidarity marches for Ein el-Hilweh are organizing. The Army has reinforced positions around these camps to prevent the unrest from spilling onto the main Tripoli-Akkar highway.
• Port Operations: The Port of Tripoli is operating but facing insurance hikes. Traders fear a naval blockade could be reinstated if the diplomatic rift deepens.
• Military Morale: In Akkar (the recruitment heartland of the Army), the US snub of Gen. Haykal is taken as a personal insult. Morale is low, which may affect checkpoint diligence.

MOUNT LEBANON & KESERWAN 🏞️

Index: 65/100 (Elevated)

Status: Displacement Pressure

• Displacement Pressure: Hotels and apartments are reaching 100% capacity as families flee the South again. Rents are skyrocketing, causing social friction between displaced Southerners and local residents in Jounieh and Byblos.
• Highway Security: The coastal highway from Jounieh to Beirut is secure, but traffic is heavy due to displacement convoys.

♟️ STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: THE END OF 1701?

Status of Resolution 1701: FUNCTIONALLY VOID.

The resolution relied on three pillars, all of which have crumbled in the last 48 hours:

1. UNIFIL Monitoring: Rendered ineffective after Sunday’s direct fire incident and the current restriction of patrols to bases. UNIFIL is now a hostage in its own area of operations.
2. LAF Deployment: Now politically orphaned by the US cancellation and militarily paralyzed by the threat of Israeli strikes. The LAF cannot deploy effectively if it is viewed as a hostile entity by Israel and an untrustworthy one by the US.
3. Israeli Withdrawal: Israel continues to hold 5 tactical hilltops and is constructing a concrete wall near Yaroun (blocking 4,000 sqm), signaling an intent to annex buffer zones rather than withdraw.

Forecast: We are transitioning from a “Ceasefire Violation” phase to a “Low-Intensity Attrition” phase. Israel appears to be adopting a “Mowing the Grass” strategy—conducting precise, high-value assassinations (Principals, Municipal Officers, Camp Commanders) regardless of the diplomatic cost, daring Hezbollah to launch a massive retaliation that would justify a wider war.

🛡️ SPECIFIC SECURITY GUIDANCE

FOR NGOs & HUMANITARIAN AID

• Sidon Operations: SUSPEND IMMEDIATELY. Do not attempt to enter Ein el-Hilweh or its adjacent areas (Taamir, Villat). The risk of kidnapping or crossfire is critical.
• Convoy Protocols: All movement South of Beirut requires deconfliction notification (though compliance is low). Use only armored vehicles (B6 minimum).
• Markings: Ensure roof markings are clear, but be aware that the “Civil Defense” vehicle struck last week had markings. Visual identification offers diminishing protection.

FOR MEDIA & JOURNALISTS

• Red Lines: Do not film near Palestinian Camp entrances tonight. Emotions are raw, and cameras may be mistaken for intelligence gathering tools by paranoid factions.
• Official Vehicles: Avoid using white SUVs that resemble UN or Municipal vehicles in the South; these profiles are currently being targeted.
• Embassy Protests: If covering the US Embassy protests in Awkar, wear ballistic protection (vest/helmet) as ISF riot control may escalate to tear gas or rubber bullets.

FOR CORPORATE & LOGISTICS

• Supply Chain: Divert all non-essential imports to Tripoli Port instead of Beirut, as Beirut may face closures if protests escalate.
• Staff Safety: Activate “Work from Home” for all employees residing in the South, Beqaa, or Southern Suburbs of Beirut (Dahiyeh).
• Routes: The Coastal Highway at Sidon is a choke point. Do not route heavy trucks through it between 18:00 and 06:00.

🔮 24-HOUR SCENARIO FORECAST

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (60% Probability):

• South: Rocket barrages from the South targeting Northern Israel (Upper Galilee) in retaliation for Ein el-Hilweh.
• Sidon: Burning tires and road closures block the highway tonight.
• Diplomatic: The LAF issues a clarifying statement trying to walk back the Sunday comments to salvage the US relationship.
• Strikes: Israel conducts “noise” raids (sonic booms) over Beirut to maintain psychological pressure.

WORST CASE SCENARIO (30% Probability):

• Escalation: A rocket from Lebanon hits a population center in Haifa.
• Response: Israel launches a wide-scale air campaign against Beirut bridges or power infrastructure, citing the “State’s complicity” (via the Army’s statement).
• Internal: Armed clashes erupt between Fatah and Jund al-Sham in Ein el-Hilweh, spilling into Sidon.

BEST CASE SCENARIO (10% Probability):

• Containment: French diplomacy succeeds in pausing the US cancellation (re-scheduling it).
• Calm: Hezbollah restrains Palestinian factions from firing rockets to avoid giving Israel a pretext for war.

🔍 METHODOLOGY & DISCLAIMER

The CIS Lebanon Security Index™

The Index is calculated daily using a proprietary algorithm that weighs:

1. Kinetic Events: Volume and lethality of strikes (35% weight).
2. Political Stability: Functionality of government and diplomatic relations (25% weight).
3. Social Indicators: Protest activity, road closures, and displacement (20% weight).
4. Economic Stress: Currency fluctuation and fuel availability (20% weight).

Today’s score of 89/100 is driven primarily by the Kinetic (Mass Casualty) and Political (US Rupture) factors hitting maximum stress levels simultaneously.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only. CIS Security is not liable for decisions made based on this intelligence. The security situation in Lebanon is fluid and can change within minutes.

🔍 CIS SECURITY LEBANON – Trusted Intelligence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” – Emergency Operations Center: +961-3-539900 – Duty Officer: Col. (Ret) Ramzi K. – Report Generated: Nov 18, 2025 | 22:15