CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Dec 22 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 79/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ DISARMAMENT MILESTONE APPROACHING – YEAR-END DEADLINE FOCUS

🚨 BREAKING: FIRST PHASE DISARMAMENT “DAYS AWAY” AS 2027 UNIFIL EXIT LOOMS

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – MONDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2025:

DISARMAMENT PHASE ONE NEARLY COMPLETE: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced on Saturday that Lebanon is “only days away” from completing the first phase of Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River, racing to meet the crucial year-end deadline. The Lebanese Armed Forces are prepared to immediately begin Phase Two operations covering the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers.

YEAR-END DEADLINE PRESSURE: Lebanese authorities, led by President Joseph Aoun and PM Salam, tasked the LAF on August 5 with devising a comprehensive plan to establish state monopoly on arms by December 31, 2025. With just 9 days remaining, the government emphasizes substantial progress while preparing for expanded operations northward.

UNIFIL 2027 WITHDRAWAL CREATING URGENCY: The UN Security Council’s August 2025 decision that UNIFIL will cease operations December 31, 2026, followed by full withdrawal throughout 2027, has intensified pressure on Lebanon to demonstrate capability for independent security management before international peacekeepers depart.

LEBANON WARNS OF SECURITY VACUUM: Lebanese officials have warned that UNIFIL’s departure could create a dangerous security vacuum if the LAF is not fully prepared and equipped to assume complete responsibility. The 10,800-strong peacekeeping force has provided crucial buffer and monitoring functions since 1978.

ONGOING VIOLATIONS PERSIST: Despite diplomatic progress, UNIFIL has documented over 10,000 Israeli violations since the November 2024 ceasefire, including more than 7,500 airspace violations and nearly 2,500 ground violations. Israel continues to occupy five strategic positions inside Lebanese territory.

FRIDAY’S NAQOURA TALKS: The 15th meeting of the ceasefire monitoring committee convened December 19 in Naqoura, with military and civilian delegations discussing LAF strengthening, reconstruction priorities, and economic cooperation. The talks occurred as Israel launched strikes the day before the meeting.

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES MOUNTING: UN figures show at least 127 civilians killed by Israeli strikes since the ceasefire, including 13+ children. UNICEF reports 146 children injured. More than 270 total deaths and 850 wounded have been documented by Lebanon’s health ministry during the supposed ceasefire period.

RECONSTRUCTION TARGETING: Human Rights Watch documented Israeli strikes destroying over 360 heavy machines including bulldozers and excavators between August-October 2025, systematically targeting reconstruction equipment vital for rebuilding southern Lebanon’s devastated communities.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 75/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Year-End Deadline Focus. The capital manages intensive governmental coordination as PM Nawaf Salam announces Lebanon is “only days away” from completing Phase One disarmament south of the Litani River. The December 31 deadline creates significant pressure for demonstrating progress before year’s end.

President Joseph Aoun’s administration coordinates comprehensive preparations for Phase Two expansion northward to the area between Litani and Awali Rivers (roughly from southern border to Sidon). This represents substantial geographical expansion of disarmament operations into areas with stronger Hezbollah presence and political influence.

The UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal decision adds critical urgency to LAF capability development. Lebanese officials emphasize the 10,800-strong peacekeeping force’s departure will transfer complete security responsibility to national authorities, requiring substantial preparation and international support for successful transition.

Friday’s Naqoura meeting brought military and civilian representatives together for the 15th ceasefire monitoring session. The US Embassy statement emphasized strengthening LAF as guarantor of security south of Litani River while civilian track focused on reconstruction, resident returns, and economic priorities.

Government officials balance diplomatic engagement with Israel through the monitoring mechanism while managing Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem’s criticism of civilian participation. Qassem condemned sending former Ambassador Simon Karam rather than military representatives, characterizing it as unnecessary concession.

Economic activities continue amid year-end deadline pressures and UNIFIL withdrawal planning. The electricity situation shows gradual improvement under governmental authority, while international attention focuses on whether Lebanon can demonstrate readiness for independent security management.

Key Factor: Nine days until year-end disarmament deadline creating intense governmental focus while UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal adds longer-term pressure for LAF capability development and sovereignty establishment.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 71/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Post-Papal Visit Stability. The governorate maintains stable operations benefiting from November’s successful Pope Leo XIV visit legacy. The Harissa shrine’s Golden Rose honor and Saint Charbel pilgrimage site continue attracting religious tourism and international attention.

Business operations proceed normally with awareness of southern disarmament operations approaching year-end deadline. The region’s Christian communities monitor Phase Two expansion plans that would extend LAF operations closer to Mount Lebanon areas.

Tourism infrastructure supports continuing domestic and religious pilgrimage activities, with the papal visit’s positive international coverage providing ongoing benefits. The region continues serving as destination for displaced southern populations awaiting security improvements enabling returns.

Infrastructure improvements proceed under stable governmental framework, while the successful papal visit demonstrates Mount Lebanon’s capability for major international events despite regional challenges.

Key Factor: Post-papal visit stability maintained while southern disarmament progress monitored with interest regarding future Phase Two expansion into areas approaching Mount Lebanon’s boundaries.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 73/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Regional Stability Maintained. Tripoli and surrounding areas maintain normal operations with commercial activities continuing steadily. The port city monitors southern disarmament progress and potential economic cooperation discussions from ceasefire monitoring talks.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable despite ongoing regional turbulence from Assad regime’s December 2024 fall. Lebanese authorities maintain effective coordination on security and humanitarian matters across northern frontier.

Economic conditions show gradual improvement under stable governmental framework, while northern communities watch southern developments regarding LAF capability demonstrations before UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal.

Infrastructure projects proceed under governmental authority with international support, while the year-end disarmament deadline creates anticipation about Phase Two expansion timing and scope.

Key Factor: Stable northern operations maintained while regional attention focuses on southern disarmament progress and LAF capability development for post-UNIFIL security responsibilities.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Border Security Excellence. The Syrian border situation remains stable with enhanced Lebanese Armed Forces coordination demonstrating effective security management. The LAF’s northern operations provide model for southern sovereignty establishment efforts.

Cross-border security operations continue effectively throughout year-end period, with humanitarian coordination with Syrian authorities proceeding normally despite regional instabilities. The LAF’s border security success strengthens arguments for force’s capability to manage post-UNIFIL responsibilities.

The region benefits from governmental stability and LAF presence, with northern operations showcasing army’s professionalism and effectiveness that authorities emphasize when discussing readiness for expanded southern responsibilities.

Key Factor: Effective northern border security demonstrating LAF capabilities relevant to arguments about readiness for assuming complete southern responsibility after UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 77/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Phase Two Preparation Zone. The valley experiences heightened attention as Phase Two disarmament operations will expand into areas between Litani and Awali Rivers, bringing LAF operations closer to Beqaa regions with significant Hezbollah presence.

Agricultural operations continue with security precautions amid anticipation about Phase Two scope and timing. PM Salam’s announcement that Phase One is “only days” from completion creates immediate focus on what expanded operations will entail.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem’s statements that the group will end military presence south of Litani but retain weapons elsewhere in Lebanon creates complex dynamics for Phase Two planning. The valley represents territory where future disarmament phases would face substantially greater political challenges.

International development projects proceed under enhanced security protocols, while the nine-day countdown to year-end deadline creates intense focus on governmental capability demonstrations.

Key Factor: Phase Two expansion preparations creating regional attention while Hezbollah’s stated intention to retain weapons outside southern zones creates complex dynamics for future disarmament stages.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 79/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Long-Term Disarmament Considerations. This region with strong Hezbollah presence monitors Phase One completion and Phase Two commencement with particular interest regarding eventual governmental plans for comprehensive nationwide disarmament.

Infrastructure improvements continue under governmental authority, while the year-end deadline’s successful achievement would demonstrate state capacity that authorities could leverage for expanded operations into more challenging territories.

The pattern of over 10,000 Israeli violations creates ongoing concerns about whether Israel’s continued non-compliance undermines Lebanese governmental arguments for Hezbollah disarmament. Qassem’s position that the group won’t fully disarm while Israeli attacks persist resonates in regions with strong militia support.

Key Factor: Year-end deadline achievement would strengthen governmental authority for eventual expansion into regions with stronger Hezbollah presence, while ongoing Israeli violations complicate disarmament arguments.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 67/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Lowest Security Concern. The coastal governorate maintains Lebanon’s most stable security environment with normal business and tourism operations proceeding effectively. The region benefits from distance from southern border tensions and strong governmental presence.

Tourism infrastructure continues supporting post-papal visit religious pilgrimage activities, with Harissa shrine and regional sites experiencing steady visitor flows. Business operations show optimism from governmental stability and southern disarmament progress.

The region serves as model for stability that other areas aspire to achieve, with effective governmental authority and minimal security disruptions enabling normal economic and social activities.

Key Factor: Continued stability demonstrating effective governmental authority while southern disarmament progress creates optimism for eventual nationwide security normalization.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Phase One Completion Imminent. The south remains highest security concern area despite PM Salam’s announcement that Phase One disarmament is “only days away” from completion. The LAF has made documented progress establishing sovereignty south of Litani River.

Since August 5 when authorities intensified operations, the LAF has maintained nearly 10,000 troops deployed in southern areas, discovered extensive Hezbollah infrastructure including 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, and 58 missiles, and closed 11 smuggling crossing points along the Litani River.

However, UNIFIL documentation of over 10,000 Israeli violations including more than 7,500 airspace violations and nearly 2,500 ground violations demonstrates systematic ceasefire non-compliance. Israel continues occupying five strategic hilltop positions inside Lebanese territory violating withdrawal requirements.

The 127 civilian deaths since ceasefire, including 13+ children, demonstrate ongoing human costs despite diplomatic framework. Human Rights Watch’s documentation of strikes destroying 360+ reconstruction vehicles shows systematic Israeli targeting of rebuilding efforts.

Friday’s Naqoura meeting occurred one day after Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon, demonstrating disconnect between diplomatic engagement and military operations. The talks focused on LAF strengthening and reconstruction priorities while strikes continued.

Lebanese officials emphasize they cannot fully deploy LAF everywhere in south while Israeli forces maintain occupation of five positions. This creates practical challenges for completing Phase One and complicating preparations for Phase Two expansion.

Key Factor: Phase One disarmament approaching completion with documented LAF progress while over 10,000 Israeli violations and five occupied positions create ongoing security challenges undermining diplomatic frameworks.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Reconstruction Amid Violations. The governorate continues managing extensive conflict aftermath while monitoring Phase One completion and Phase Two preparation. Infrastructure restoration proceeds despite Human Rights Watch documentation of systematic reconstruction equipment targeting.

The destruction of 360+ heavy machines including bulldozers and excavators between August-October represents deliberate Israeli effort to obstruct rebuilding. This targeting creates massive challenges for clearing rubble and reconstructing the 13,981+ destroyed housing units across southern regions.

Civilian populations balance reconstruction efforts with awareness that over 270 deaths and 850 wounded since ceasefire demonstrate ongoing vulnerability. The year-end deadline’s achievement would provide psychological boost for communities seeking security improvements enabling displaced returns.

Key Factor: Reconstruction proceeding despite systematic targeting of equipment while Phase One completion would represent progress toward security enabling more comprehensive rebuilding and population returns.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – YEAR-END DISARMAMENT DEADLINE

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Operations:

1. Southern Litani Areas – Phase One disarmament operations approaching completion before Dec 31 deadline
2. Litani-Awali Zone – Phase Two expansion area between rivers (south Lebanon to Sidon) being prepared
3. Five Israeli-Occupied Positions – Hilltop locations maintained inside Lebanon violating ceasefire
4. Reconstruction Zones – Areas where 360+ heavy machines destroyed by Israeli strikes
5. Friday Strike Locations – Sites hit day before Naqoura monitoring committee meeting

Priority Level 2 – Enhanced Monitoring: 6. Naqoura Committee Venue – Site of 15th ceasefire monitoring talks December 19 7. LAF Deployment Areas – Zones with nearly 10,000 troops establishing sovereignty 8. Smuggling Crossing Points – 11 locations closed along Litani River requiring monitoring 9. UNIFIL Positions – 50 locations preparing for eventual 2027 withdrawal 10. Phase Two Preparation Zones – Beqaa areas potentially affected by expanded operations

✅ RELATIVELY STABLE ZONES (WITH CONTINUED VIGILANCE):

Improved Stability Areas:

• Keserwan-Jbeil – Lowest security concerns with stable governmental authority
• Mount Lebanon Religious Sites – Post-papal visit spiritual and tourism benefits continuing
• Northern Border Areas – Effective LAF security coordination with Syria
• Central Beirut – Governmental operations focused on year-end deadline coordination

⚠️ YEAR-END DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS:

Nine Days to December 31 Deadline:

• Phase One disarmament south of Litani “only days away” from completion per PM Salam
• LAF prepared to immediately commence Phase Two between Litani-Awali Rivers
• International attention on Lebanese capability demonstration before UNIFIL 2027 exit
• Governmental authority establishment critical for post-peacekeeping security transition

UNIFIL 2027 Withdrawal Implications:

• 10,800 peacekeepers ceasing operations December 31, 2026
• Full withdrawal throughout 2027 transferring complete security responsibility to LAF
• Lebanese officials warning of potential security vacuum without adequate preparation
• International support crucial for LAF capability development and equipment provision

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – YEAR-END DEADLINE PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

DISARMAMENT MILESTONE APPROACHING: Lebanon races toward December 31 deadline with PM Nawaf Salam announcing Phase One disarmament south of Litani River is “only days away” from completion, representing significant governmental achievement in sovereignty establishment.

CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT:

• Phase One Progress: LAF operations discovering 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles since August
• Phase Two Preparation: Expansion planned for Litani-Awali area (south Lebanon to Sidon)
• Ongoing Violations: Over 10,000 Israeli violations documented including 127 civilian deaths
• UNIFIL 2027 Exit: Peacekeepers withdrawing creating pressure for LAF capability development

YEAR-END PERIOD DYNAMICS:

• Governmental Focus: Intensive coordination to meet December 31 disarmament deadline
• LAF Deployment: Nearly 10,000 troops maintaining southern sovereignty operations
• Diplomatic Engagement: Friday’s Naqoura talks discussing reconstruction and economic priorities
• Security Challenges: Five Israeli-occupied positions and systematic violations continuing

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

YEAR-END DEADLINE IMPACTS:

• Reconstruction Sector: Awareness of 360+ machines destroyed creating equipment challenges
• Southern Operations: Gradual improvements as LAF establishes security enabling business activity
• International Confidence: Phase One completion would enhance perceptions of Lebanese stability
• UNIFIL Transition: Planning for post-2027 security environment affecting long-term investments

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Phase One achievement would provide psychological boost for business confidence
• Reconstruction challenges from systematic equipment targeting requiring alternative approaches
• LAF capability demonstrations important for attracting international development support
• Economic cooperation discussions in Naqoura talks creating potential future opportunities

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY – YEAR-END PERIOD:

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS: Year-end disarmament deadline creating intensive LAF operations in southern areas while over 10,000 documented violations demonstrate ongoing security risks requiring continued caution.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Southern Areas: LAF operations approaching Phase One completion, Israeli violations continuing
• Five Occupied Positions: Israeli-controlled hilltops inside Lebanon creating security concerns
• Reconstruction Zones: Equipment targeting demonstrating systematic Israeli obstruction efforts
• Northern Areas: Stable operations with effective LAF border security
• Central Areas: Normal operations with governmental year-end deadline coordination

📊 MONDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2025 SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Nine Days Until Year-End Disarmament Deadline
Governmental Achievement: Phase One “only days away” from completion per PM Salam
UNIFIL 2027 Withdrawal: Creating urgency for LAF capability demonstration
Security Reality: Over 10,000 violations including 127 civilian deaths since ceasefire

Critical Analysis: Monday, December 22, 2025, finds Lebanon focused intensely on achieving the December 31 year-end deadline for Phase One disarmament south of the Litani River. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s Saturday announcement that completion is “only days away” represents significant governmental progress in establishing state monopoly on arms.

The Lebanese Armed Forces’ documented achievements since August 5 when authorities intensified operations demonstrate substantial capability development. Discovery of 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, and 58 missiles showcases the LAF’s growing professionalism and effectiveness in complex disarmament operations.

The deployment of nearly 10,000 troops in southern areas represents massive resource commitment, establishing governmental presence in regions previously off-limits to national authorities. The closure of 11 smuggling crossing points along the Litani River demonstrates comprehensive approach to sovereignty establishment beyond just weapons discovery.

PM Salam’s announcement that the LAF is “ready to move to the second phase” between Litani and Awali Rivers indicates governmental confidence in expanding operations. This phase would extend disarmament into areas reaching roughly from the southern border to Sidon, representing substantial geographical expansion into zones with stronger Hezbollah presence.

However, the Phase Two expansion creates significantly greater political challenges. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem’s statement that the group will end military presence south of Litani but retain weapons elsewhere in Lebanon signals potential resistance to expanded disarmament operations in Phase Two territories.

The UN Security Council’s August 2025 decision that UNIFIL will cease operations December 31, 2026, followed by full withdrawal throughout 2027, adds critical urgency to Lebanese capability demonstrations. The 10,800-strong peacekeeping force has provided crucial buffer and monitoring functions since 1978.

Lebanese officials have warned that UNIFIL’s departure could create dangerous security vacuum if the LAF is not fully prepared and equipped to assume complete responsibility. President Joseph Aoun emphasized last week that curtailing UNIFIL’s mandate “will negatively impact the situation in the south, which still suffers from Israeli occupation.”

The irony is stark: Lebanon races to demonstrate readiness for independent security management while Israel systematically undermines the ceasefire framework through over 10,000 documented violations. UNIFIL has recorded more than 7,500 airspace violations and nearly 2,500 ground violations since the November 2024 ceasefire.

The human cost remains severe. UN verification shows at least 127 civilians killed by Israeli strikes since the ceasefire, including 13+ children documented by UNICEF with 146 children injured. Lebanon’s health ministry reports more than 270 total deaths and 850 wounded during the supposed ceasefire period.

Human Rights Watch’s documentation that Israeli forces destroyed over 360 heavy machines including bulldozers and excavators between August-October reveals systematic targeting of reconstruction capabilities. This deliberate obstruction creates massive challenges for clearing rubble and rebuilding the 13,981+ destroyed housing units.

Friday’s December 19 Naqoura meeting brought military and civilian delegations together for the 15th ceasefire monitoring session. The US Embassy emphasized strengthening LAF as guarantor of security south of Litani while civilian track focused on reconstruction, resident returns, and economic priorities.

However, the meeting occurred one day after Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon, demonstrating the persistent disconnect between diplomatic engagement and military operations. This pattern undermines confidence that monitoring mechanisms can translate into actual compliance.

Israel continues occupying five strategic hilltop positions inside Lebanese territory violating ceasefire withdrawal requirements. Lebanese officials emphasize they cannot fully deploy LAF everywhere in the south while Israeli forces maintain these occupied positions, creating practical challenges for completing Phase One and preparing Phase Two.

The December 31 deadline creates both opportunity and pressure. Successful Phase One completion would represent significant governmental achievement demonstrating LAF capability and state authority. This could enhance international confidence in Lebanon’s readiness for post-UNIFIL security responsibilities.

However, failure to meet the deadline—or achieving only partial success—could undermine governmental credibility and strengthen arguments that Lebanon isn’t prepared for UNIFIL’s 2027 departure. The remaining nine days will be critical for Lebanese authorities’ intensive final push.

Hezbollah’s Position: Naim Qassem’s criticism of sending civilian negotiator Simon Karam to Naqoura talks rather than military representatives characterizes this as unnecessary concession to Israel. His statement that Hezbollah will end military presence south of Litani but retain weapons elsewhere signals potential Phase Two resistance.

US-French-Saudi Support: Friday’s meetings in Paris between LAF Commander Gen. Rodolph Haikal and US, French, Saudi officials addressed ways of assisting the army’s mission. International support remains crucial for LAF capability development, equipment provision, and eventual readiness for post-UNIFIL responsibilities.

Historical Context: The November 2024 ceasefire ended 14 months of hostilities that killed more than 4,000 Lebanese, displaced 1.2 million at peak, and caused approximately $11 billion in destruction. The year-end disarmament deadline represents critical milestone in implementing ceasefire terms and establishing sovereignty.

Long-term Prospects: Successful Phase One completion by December 31 would provide momentum for Phase Two expansion and demonstrate Lebanese readiness for UNIFIL’s eventual 2027 departure. However, sustained success requires Israeli ceasefire compliance, continued international support for LAF, political management of Hezbollah opposition to expanded disarmament, and comprehensive reconstruction enabling displaced populations’ returns.

The next nine days will determine whether Lebanon achieves this crucial milestone, setting trajectory for 2026 Phase Two operations and preparations for assuming complete post-UNIFIL security responsibilities in 2027.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: YEAR-END DEADLINE SERVICES

⏰ NINE DAYS TO DISARMAMENT MILESTONE – COMPREHENSIVE PROTECTION

CIS Security provides professional services supporting Lebanon’s intensive year-end push to complete Phase One disarmament south of Litani River before December 31 deadline while preparing for Phase Two expansion and eventual UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal transition.

YEAR-END DEADLINE SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

Phase One Completion Support:

• LAF Operations Coordination – Professional liaison supporting army’s final disarmament push
• Southern Area Security – Enhanced protection in zones with intensive LAF operations
• Infrastructure Protection – Security for governmental facilities during deadline-focused period
• Emergency Response – Maintained capabilities throughout year-end operations

Phase Two Preparation Services:

• Litani-Awali Zone Assessment – Security evaluations for Phase Two expansion areas
• Facility Protection – Enhanced security for governmental planning and coordination centers
• Personnel Security – Protection for officials conducting Phase Two preparations
• Intelligence Analysis – Continuous monitoring of security dynamics affecting expansion plans

UNIFIL Transition Planning:

• Post-2027 Preparation – Security planning for LAF assumption of complete responsibility
• International Coordination – Liaison with peacekeepers preparing for eventual withdrawal
• Capability Development Support – Professional services supporting LAF training and readiness
• Infrastructure Assessment – Security evaluations for post-UNIFIL operational requirements

CONTINUING SECURITY OPERATIONS:

Violation Monitoring:

• Professional assessment of over 10,000 documented Israeli violations
• Security coordination in five occupied position areas
• Civilian protection services in high-violation zones
• Emergency response for strike aftermath situations

Reconstruction Security:

• Protection for equipment following 360+ machine destruction documentation
• Security coordination for rebuilding efforts in southern areas
• Facility protection enabling reconstruction despite systematic targeting
• Emergency services for construction zones and infrastructure projects

Diplomatic Engagement Support:

• Professional security for Naqoura monitoring committee meetings
• Protection services for Lebanese negotiators and delegation members
• Facility security for governmental diplomatic coordination centers
• Emergency capabilities for high-level international engagement events

📞 YEAR-END DEADLINE COORDINATION

SECURITY HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional protection during critical nine-day countdown to disarmament milestone

LAF OPERATIONS SUPPORT: Coordination services for Phase One completion efforts
PHASE TWO PREPARATION: Security planning for Litani-Awali expansion zone
UNIFIL TRANSITION PLANNING: Readiness services for post-2027 responsibilities

Specialized Service Centers:

• Southern Operations: Professional support for LAF disarmament final push
• Phase Two Planning: Security coordination for expansion preparations
• UNIFIL Transition: Capability development and post-2027 readiness services
• Emergency Response: Maintained capabilities throughout deadline period

During Lebanon’s critical nine-day countdown to December 31 year-end disarmament deadline, CIS Security provides comprehensive professional services supporting LAF Phase One completion efforts, Phase Two expansion preparations, and long-term planning for UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal transition under President Aoun and PM Salam’s governmental leadership.

⚠️ YEAR-END DEADLINE OPERATIONAL NOTICE

NINE DAYS TO MILESTONE: Lebanon races toward December 31 deadline with PM Nawaf Salam announcing Phase One disarmament south of Litani River is “only days away” from completion, representing significant governmental sovereignty establishment achievement.

LAF DOCUMENTED PROGRESS: Since August 5 intensified operations, Lebanese Armed Forces discovered 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, 58 missiles, deployed nearly 10,000 troops, and closed 11 smuggling crossing points demonstrating comprehensive capability development.

PHASE TWO IMMINENT: LAF prepared to immediately commence expanded operations between Litani-Awali Rivers (south Lebanon to Sidon area) following Phase One completion, representing substantial geographical expansion into areas with stronger Hezbollah presence.

UNIFIL 2027 EXIT PRESSURE: UN Security Council August 2025 decision that peacekeepers cease operations December 31, 2026 with full withdrawal throughout 2027 creates urgency for Lebanese capability demonstrations and international support for LAF readiness.

ONGOING VIOLATIONS: Over 10,000 Israeli violations documented including 7,500+ airspace and 2,500+ ground violations, 127 civilian deaths, five occupied positions, and 360+ reconstruction machines destroyed demonstrating systematic ceasefire non-compliance.

PROFESSIONAL DEADLINE SERVICES: CIS Security provides comprehensive protection supporting LAF Phase One completion, Phase Two preparation, UNIFIL transition planning, violation monitoring, reconstruction security, and diplomatic engagement throughout critical nine-day countdown period.

CRITICAL ACHIEVEMENT PERIOD: Successful December 31 milestone would demonstrate governmental capacity, enhance international confidence, provide momentum for Phase Two, and strengthen readiness arguments for post-UNIFIL 2027 security transition.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s critical nine-day countdown to December 31 year-end disarmament deadline with PM Nawaf Salam announcing Phase One completion “only days away,” trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise in LAF operations support, phase transition planning, UNIFIL withdrawal preparation, and comprehensive security services. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide professional coordination for disarmament milestone achievement, Phase Two expansion readiness, post-2027 UNIFIL transition planning, violation monitoring, reconstruction protection, and diplomatic engagement support. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting Lebanese sovereignty establishment under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership during this decisive period for national security transition.

CIS Security Year-End Deadline Services:

• LAF Operations Support – Professional coordination for Phase One completion and Phase Two preparation
• Southern Area Security – Enhanced protection in zones with intensive disarmament operations
• UNIFIL Transition Planning – Readiness services for post-2027 complete LAF responsibility assumption
• Violation Monitoring – Assessment and response coordination for over 10,000 documented violations
• Reconstruction Protection – Security enabling rebuilding despite 360+ machine destruction
• Diplomatic Engagement – Professional services for Naqoura talks and governmental coordination
• Emergency Response – Comprehensive capabilities maintained throughout deadline period

Why Choose CIS During Critical Deadline Period: ✓ 35+ Years National Experience – Proven security supporting Lebanon’s most significant governmental operations
✓ LAF Partnership Excellence – Professional coordination with army’s disarmament and sovereignty efforts
✓ Phase Transition Expertise – Specialized planning for Phase One completion and Phase Two expansion
✓ UNIFIL Coordination – Partnership experience relevant to post-2027 transition preparation
✓ Deadline Management – Professional services during critical governmental milestone periods
✓ Comprehensive Coverage – Full-spectrum protection across all Lebanese territories and situations

Security Services: 📞 24/7 Hotline: +961-3-539900
💬 All Services: LAF support, phase transition, UNIFIL planning, violation monitoring, reconstruction, diplomatic
🌐 Comprehensive Protection: www.cissecurity.net – Professional services throughout Lebanon
📧 Emergency Response: Immediate capabilities for any security requirements

Serving all Lebanese governorates during critical nine-day countdown to December 31 disarmament deadline with professional security supporting LAF Phase One completion (74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles discovered), Phase Two expansion preparations (Litani-Awali zone), UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal transition planning, and comprehensive protection enabling sovereignty establishment. CIS Security – Your trusted partner supporting Lebanon’s historic governmental milestone under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership, demonstrating national capability for independent security management despite over 10,000 Israeli violations and systematic reconstruction obstruction during this decisive period for Lebanese sovereignty and post-UNIFIL transition readiness.

📈 DISARMAMENT ACHIEVEMENT SCORECARD

PHASE ONE PROGRESS (AUGUST 5 – DECEMBER 31, 2025):

LAF DOCUMENTED DISCOVERIES:

• ✅ 74 Tunnels – Underground Hezbollah infrastructure south of Litani River
• ✅ 175 Rocket Launchers – Military equipment in former militia strongholds
• ✅ 58 Missiles – Weapons systems discovered during sovereignty operations
• ✅ 11 Smuggling Crossings Closed – Border security along Litani River
• ✅ Nearly 10,000 Troops Deployed – Massive southern presence establishing authority

TERRITORIAL COVERAGE:

• Primary Zone: Area south of Litani River adjacent to Israeli border
• Key Locations: Zibqin Valley, border villages, formerly inaccessible areas
• LAF Access: Operations in zones previously off-limits to army and UNIFIL
• Status: PM Salam announces completion “only days away” before Dec 31

INTERNATIONAL VERIFICATION:

• UNIFIL partnership providing monitoring and support
• UN documentation of LAF operations and progress
• US, French, Saudi officials meeting LAF Commander for capability discussions
• Friday Naqoura talks emphasizing LAF as security guarantor

PHASE TWO PREPARATION (JAN 2026 ONWARD):

EXPANSION ZONE:

• Geographic Area: Between Litani and Awali Rivers (south Lebanon to Sidon)
• Challenges: Stronger Hezbollah presence and political influence
• LAF Readiness: PM Salam confirms army prepared for immediate commencement
• Governmental Authority: Presidential and PM coordination on expansion plans

HEZBOLLAH POSITION:

• Leader Naim Qassem: Will end military presence south of Litani
• Retain weapons: Group states it will keep arms in other Lebanese areas
• Conditions**: No full disarmament while Israeli violations and occupation persist
• Political Opposition**: Criticism of civilian negotiator participation in Naqoura talks

INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT REQUIREMENTS:

• Equipment provision for expanded LAF operations
• Training and capability development for sovereignty establishment
• Funding for nearly 10,000 troop deployment and expansion
• Diplomatic backing for governmental disarmament authority

CEASEFIRE COMPLIANCE COMPARISON:

LEBANESE ACHIEVEMENTS:

• ✅ 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles discovered – Documented disarmament progress
• ✅ Nearly 10,000 LAF troops deployed – Massive southern sovereignty establishment
• ✅ 11 smuggling crossings closed – Comprehensive border security operations
• ✅ Phase One approaching completion – Meeting December 31 deadline per PM Salam
• ✅ Phase Two readiness – LAF prepared for immediate Litani-Awali expansion
• ✅ UNIFIL coordination – Effective partnership with international peacekeepers
• ✅ Diplomatic engagement – Participation in 15 Naqoura monitoring committee meetings

ISRAELI VIOLATIONS:

• ❌ Over 10,000 total violations – Systematic ceasefire non-compliance documented by UNIFIL
• ❌ 7,500+ airspace violations – Continuous sovereignty infringement operations
• ❌ 2,500+ ground violations – Persistent territorial integrity breaches
• ❌ 127 civilian deaths (UN verified) – Including 13+ children killed since ceasefire
• ❌ 270+ total deaths, 850+ wounded – Lebanon health ministry documentation
• ❌ Five positions occupied – Strategic hilltops maintained inside Lebanese territory
• ❌ 360+ reconstruction machines destroyed – Systematic rebuilding obstruction per HRW
• ❌ Strike day before Naqoura talks – Ongoing operations despite diplomatic engagement

🔮 CRITICAL TIMELINES & MILESTONES

IMMEDIATE TIMELINE (DECEMBER 22-31, 2025):

NINE DAYS TO DEADLINE:

December 22 (TODAY):

• Intensive LAF operations for Phase One final completion
• Governmental coordination on deadline achievement
• International attention on Lebanese capability demonstration
• Security operations continuing despite year-end holiday period

December 23-30:

• Final Phase One disarmament push in southern Litani areas
• Documentation and verification of discoveries and progress
• UNIFIL coordination on achievement assessments
• Governmental preparations for Phase Two immediate commencement

December 31 (DEADLINE DAY):

• Phase One completion announcement expected from PM Salam
• Assessment of governmental achievement vs. August 5 objectives
• International evaluation of Lebanese readiness and capability
• Potential immediate Phase Two operations commencement

SHORT-TERM TIMELINE (JANUARY-MARCH 2026):

PHASE TWO EXPANSION:

January 2026:

• LAF operations commence between Litani-Awali Rivers
• Expanded geographical scope reaching Sidon area approaches
• Greater political challenges with stronger Hezbollah presence
• International support coordination for expanded operations

February-March 2026:

• Ongoing Phase Two disarmament operations and discoveries
• UNIFIL partnership continuing throughout expanded zones
• Diplomatic monitoring through Naqoura mechanism
• Reconstruction efforts accelerating with improved security

Q1 2026 Objectives:

• Establish comprehensive LAF presence in Phase Two zones
• Discover and remove Hezbollah infrastructure in expanded areas
• Maintain sovereignty operations despite expected political resistance
• Demonstrate continued governmental capability and authority

MEDIUM-TERM TIMELINE (APRIL-DECEMBER 2026):

UNIFIL MANDATE CONCLUSION:

April-August 2026:

• Phase Two operations continuing with international support
• UNIFIL preparing for December 31, 2026 operational cessation
• LAF capability development and equipment provision acceleration
• Planning for complete security responsibility assumption

September-December 2026:

• Final UNIFIL operational period before mandate conclusion
• LAF preparations for assuming all peacekeeping functions
• International support packages finalization for post-UNIFIL period
• Phase Two completion assessment and potential Phase Three planning

December 31, 2026:

• UNIFIL ceases all operations per UN Security Council August 2025 decision
• LAF assumes complete security responsibility south of Litani
• International community evaluates Lebanese readiness
• Critical transition moment for national sovereignty demonstration

LONG-TERM TIMELINE (2027 AND BEYOND):

POST-UNIFIL SECURITY TRANSITION:

Throughout 2027:

• UNIFIL full withdrawal from all 50 positions in southern Lebanon
• LAF operating independently without international peacekeeping buffer
• Complete Lebanese security responsibility for all southern areas
• International support continuing but without direct presence

2027-2028:

• Comprehensive Lebanese sovereignty establishment across all regions
• Potential Phase Three operations in Beqaa and other areas if Phase Two successful
• Reconstruction acceleration with improved security environment
• Economic cooperation initiatives with Israel if ceasefire holds

Long-term Considerations:

• Sustained LAF capability without international peacekeeping presence
• Hezbollah’s role and influence after expanded disarmament operations
• Israeli compliance with ceasefire and violation cessation
• Regional peace prospects and Lebanon-Israel relationship normalization

🎯 SCENARIO PLANNING: DECEMBER 31 DEADLINE OUTCOMES

BEST CASE SCENARIO – COMPLETE SUCCESS:

Phase One Achievement:

• PM Salam announces full Phase One completion on December 31
• All Hezbollah military infrastructure south of Litani removed
• LAF establishes complete sovereignty throughout southern areas
• International community praises Lebanese capability demonstration

Immediate Benefits:

• Enhanced governmental credibility and authority
• Increased international confidence in Lebanese security management
• Smooth Phase Two commencement in January 2026
• Momentum for UNIFIL transition preparations
• Improved civilian security enabling displaced returns

Challenges Remaining:

• Israeli violations continuing despite Lebanese compliance
• Five occupied positions still maintained by Israeli forces
• Reconstruction obstruction through equipment destruction
• Hezbollah political opposition to Phase Two expansion

REALISTIC SCENARIO – SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS:

Phase One Achievement:

• Significant but not complete disarmament south of Litani
• 80-90% of objectives achieved by December 31
• LAF demonstrates capability but identifies remaining challenges
• Governmental emphasis on progress while acknowledging ongoing work

Mixed Results:

• International recognition of substantial efforts and achievements
• Questions about complete readiness for UNIFIL 2027 departure
• Phase Two commencement delayed for consolidation
• Continued need for international support and capability development

Ongoing Concerns:

• Hezbollah infrastructure possibly remaining in some areas
• Israeli violations undermining achievements
• Political tensions over disarmament scope and pace
• Reconstruction delays affecting civilian confidence

WORST CASE SCENARIO – INCOMPLETE ACHIEVEMENT:

Phase One Shortfall:

• Significant gaps in disarmament objectives by December 31
• LAF unable to establish comprehensive sovereignty
• Hezbollah infrastructure remaining in multiple areas
• Governmental forced to request deadline extension

Negative Consequences:

• International doubts about Lebanese readiness for UNIFIL departure
• Reduced confidence in governmental capability
• Phase Two indefinitely delayed
• Increased support for continued UNIFIL presence beyond 2027

Security Deterioration:

• Israeli justifications for continued violations strengthened
• Hezbollah political position reinforced
• Reconstruction and returns further delayed
• Regional instability risks increasing

📊 YEAR-END ASSESSMENT MATRIX

GOVERNMENTAL PERFORMANCE METRICS:

LAF OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY:

• Deployment: ✅ Nearly 10,000 troops – EXCELLENT
• Discoveries: ✅ 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles – VERY GOOD
• Territorial Control: ✅ Sovereignty in previously inaccessible areas – GOOD
• Border Security: ✅ 11 smuggling crossings closed – EXCELLENT
• UNIFIL Coordination: ✅ Effective partnership – VERY GOOD
• Timeline Management: ⏳ Phase One completion “only days away” – PENDING

DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT:

• Naqoura Participation: ✅ 15 monitoring committee meetings – CONSISTENT
• International Relations: ✅ US, French, Saudi coordination – STRONG
• Israeli Dialogue: ⚠️ Progress undermined by ongoing violations – CHALLENGING
• Hezbollah Management: ⚠️ Opposition to negotiations and Phase Two – DIFFICULT
• Regional Positioning: ✅ Maintaining sovereignty focus – GOOD

RECONSTRUCTION PROGRESS:

• Displaced Returns: ⚠️ Limited due to ongoing violations – SLOW
• Infrastructure Rebuilding: ❌ Obstructed by equipment destruction – POOR
• International Support: ✅ Donor coordination ongoing – ADEQUATE
• Economic Recovery: ⚠️ Gradual improvement insufficient – CHALLENGING
• Housing Restoration: ❌ 13,981+ destroyed units largely unaddressed – CRITICAL

ISRAELI COMPLIANCE METRICS:

CEASEFIRE ADHERENCE:

• Violation Cessation: ❌ Over 10,000 violations – COMPLETE FAILURE
• Withdrawal Completion: ❌ Five positions maintained – NON-COMPLIANT
• Civilian Protection: ❌ 127+ deaths including 13+ children – SEVERE VIOLATIONS
• Reconstruction Respect: ❌ 360+ machines destroyed – SYSTEMATIC OBSTRUCTION
• Diplomatic Coordination: ❌ Strikes day before Naqoura talks – UNDERMINING

Overall Israeli Assessment: SYSTEMATIC NON-COMPLIANCE across all ceasefire dimensions

💭 EXPERT ANALYSIS & PROJECTIONS

MILITARY ASSESSMENT:

LAF Capability Development: The Lebanese Armed Forces have demonstrated remarkable progress in establishing sovereignty and conducting complex disarmament operations. The discovery of 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, and 58 missiles represents substantial achievement requiring sophisticated intelligence, operational planning, and execution capabilities.

The deployment of nearly 10,000 troops in southern areas showcases resource commitment and organizational capacity. The army’s ability to establish presence in previously inaccessible zones demonstrates evolving professionalism and governmental authority.

However, Phase Two expansion into Litani-Awali areas presents significantly greater challenges. Stronger Hezbollah presence, greater political sensitivity, and expanded geographical scope will test LAF capabilities beyond Phase One achievements. Success requires sustained international support, equipment provision, and political backing.

The UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal creates critical pressure. The LAF must demonstrate capability to independently manage security without international peacekeeping buffer. This requires accelerated capability development, comprehensive equipment provision, and sustained operational excellence across all southern areas.

POLITICAL ASSESSMENT:

Governmental Authority vs. Hezbollah Influence: President Aoun and PM Salam have demonstrated political will to pursue disarmament despite Hezbollah opposition. The December 31 deadline achievement would strengthen governmental authority and provide momentum for Phase Two expansion.

However, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem’s statement that the group will end military presence south of Litani but retain weapons elsewhere signals clear boundaries on disarmament acceptance. Phase Two operations into areas with stronger militia presence will face substantially greater political resistance.

The governmental strategy appears to be graduated approach: achieve Phase One demonstrating capability, use success to justify Phase Two expansion, build momentum toward eventual comprehensive nationwide disarmament. This incremental strategy may be politically realistic but faces challenges from both Hezbollah resistance and Israeli violation exploitation.

International support remains crucial. US, French, and Saudi coordination with LAF provides diplomatic backing and resources. However, sustained support requires demonstrable Lebanese achievements justifying continued investment in capability development.

DIPLOMATIC ASSESSMENT:

Naqoura Mechanism Effectiveness: The ceasefire monitoring committee has held 15 meetings, creating forum for Lebanese-Israeli engagement. The civilian track addition exploring economic cooperation represents potential confidence-building approach.

However, the stark disconnect between diplomatic engagement and military reality undermines mechanism credibility. Israeli strikes occurring day before Naqoura meetings, systematic 10,000+ violations, and five maintained occupied positions demonstrate that participation in talks doesn’t translate to compliance.

For diplomatic track to succeed, enforcement mechanisms must develop consequences for non-compliance. Currently, Israel faces no meaningful accountability for systematic violations, creating incentive structure favoring military pressure over diplomatic solutions.

Lebanese diplomatic strategy emphasizes ceasefire implementation, violation cessation, and Israeli withdrawal rather than normalization or peace. This maintains traditional positions while allowing tactical engagement through monitoring mechanism.

HUMANITARIAN ASSESSMENT:

Civilian Impact and Protection: The 127 civilian deaths (UN verified) including 13+ children killed since the ceasefire demonstrates ongoing humanitarian costs. More than 270 deaths and 850 wounded per Lebanese health ministry shows systematic civilian vulnerability despite diplomatic frameworks.

The destruction of 360+ reconstruction machines represents deliberate obstruction of humanitarian recovery. This systematic targeting creates massive obstacles for clearing rubble, rebuilding 13,981+ destroyed housing units, and enabling displaced population returns.

UNIFIL’s 2027 departure creates humanitarian concerns if LAF cannot ensure civilian protection without international peacekeeping buffer. The Lebanese authorities must demonstrate capability to protect populations from violations while establishing sovereignty.

Reconstruction acceleration requires ceasefire compliance enabling safe returns, equipment provision replacing destroyed machinery, international funding for rebuilding, and comprehensive mine/ordnance clearance throughout southern areas.

CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Professional security intelligence for informed decision-making during Lebanon’s critical nine-day countdown to December 31 year-end disarmament deadline and preparations for Phase Two expansion and UNIFIL 2027 withdrawal transition. Updated Monday, December 22, 2025, based on comprehensive research and real-time monitoring of governmental operations, LAF achievements, and security developments.