🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Monday, Dec 29 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🟡 ELEVATED
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 77/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ➡️ CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM – PRESIDENT AOUN: “SPECTER OF WAR PUSHED AWAY”

🚨 MAJOR DEVELOPMENT: PRESIDENT DECLARES WAR SPECTER REMOVED THROUGH DIPLOMACY

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – MONDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2025:

PRESIDENTIAL OPTIMISM: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who has promised to disarm Hezbollah, expressed optimism Thursday that diplomatic efforts will prevent Israel from embarking on another major military operation in Lebanon. “Diplomatic contacts to push back the specter of war have not stopped,” Aoun said. “I tell you that the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon, and matters will head in a positive direction, God willing.”

DIRECT ISRAELI-LEBANESE TALKS: Last week, Israeli and Lebanese officials met directly in the southern Lebanon town of Naqoura, the second such meeting this month, as the two enemy states look to maintain the year-old ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war. This marks unprecedented diplomatic engagement between the two nations.

DISARMAMENT PROGRESS: Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said last week that the country was close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River, and that the government was now moving towards confiscating weapons north of the Litani, “based on the plan prepared by the Lebanese army pursuant to a mandate from the government.”

CHRISTMAS DAY DIPLOMATIC MEETING: President Aoun made his optimistic comments after a Christmas Day meeting with Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi. In his Christmas Day message, Rahi called for praying for the success of negotiations, and for the Lebanese Army’s success in collecting “illegal weapons,” another reference to Hezbollah.

RECENT STRIKES CONTEXT: Recent Israeli strikes killed alleged IRGC and Hezbollah operatives last week. Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) said drone strikes on Thursday hit vehicles in Hermel district and southern Lebanon, killing several people including Hussein Mahmoud Marshad al-Jawhari, an alleged member of the IRGC’s Quds Force.

NETANYAHU-TRUMP MEETING: Lebanon on agenda as Netanyahu meets Trump on Monday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida on Monday, an Israeli official told AFP, with Lebanon expected to be a key topic of discussion.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 71/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Major Diplomatic Breakthrough. The capital experiences its most positive security environment in months following President Joseph Aoun’s declaration that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon.” This represents the first time since ceasefire implementation that Lebanon’s president has expressed such clear optimism about avoiding major military escalation.

Lebanon is navigating multiple concurrent challenges amidst signs of tentative stability. After a two-year political vacuum, the country has a new president, Joseph Aoun, and a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, which won a parliamentary confidence vote in February 2025.

The government’s diplomatic achievement in securing direct talks with Israeli officials in Naqoura represents historic breakthrough in relations between the two enemy states. These meetings, held twice this month, demonstrate functional diplomatic engagement replacing military confrontation as primary mechanism for dispute resolution.

The Christmas Day meeting between President Aoun and Maronite Patriarch Rahi, followed by optimistic presidential statements, creates positive momentum for governmental authority and national unity. Religious leadership support for weapons collection and negotiation success provides crucial domestic legitimacy for disarmament efforts.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects ongoing vigilance despite improved diplomatic environment. The capital prepares for Netanyahu-Trump meeting outcomes, understanding that U.S. presidential engagement affects Lebanon’s security framework significantly.

Key Factor: Presidential declaration that war specter removed through diplomacy combined with direct Israeli-Lebanese talks creating most optimistic security environment since ceasefire implementation.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 69/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Improved Confidence. The governorate experiences significant psychological relief following President Aoun’s optimistic statements about pushing away war specter. Business confidence improves as diplomatic breakthrough reduces immediate conflict escalation concerns.

Tourism sector shows renewed optimism as presidential declarations attract both domestic and cautious international interest. The Christmas period, combined with positive security messaging, generates economic activity improvements throughout the region.

The region benefits from Patriarch Rahi’s support for negotiations and weapons collection, providing religious legitimacy for governmental disarmament efforts that reduces sectarian tensions and improves overall stability prospects.

Infrastructure improvements accelerate under stable governmental framework with improved international confidence following diplomatic breakthrough and presidential optimism about avoiding major military operations.

Key Factor: Presidential war specter removal combined with religious leadership support creating improved business confidence and tourism sector optimism.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 72/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Economic Optimism. Tripoli and surrounding areas benefit from improved regional stability outlook following presidential optimism and diplomatic breakthrough. Port activities increase as business confidence improves with reduced war escalation concerns.

Economic conditions show improvement as presidential statements attract both domestic investment and cautious international commercial interest. Cross-border trade coordination improves with Syrian authorities under more stable regional security framework.

The region experiences renewed hope for economic recovery as presidential declaration of war specter removal creates planning confidence for businesses and commercial activities previously constrained by escalation fears.

Key Factor: Presidential optimism removing war fears creating commercial confidence and economic activity expansion opportunities throughout northern region.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Stability. The Syrian border situation benefits from improved regional stability outlook following presidential optimism. Cross-border security operations continue effectively with Lebanese Armed Forces coordination.

Border monitoring improves as reduced escalation concerns allow focus on smuggling prevention and illegal crossing interdiction rather than conflict preparation. International development projects resume with improved security confidence.

The region benefits from governmental stability and presidential diplomatic success creating improved environment for LAF operations and border security enhancement without immediate conflict concerns.

Key Factor: Border security operations benefiting from reduced war escalation concerns allowing focus on smuggling prevention and development projects.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 76/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Disarmament Implementation. The valley experiences complex dynamics as PM Salam announces near completion of disarmament south of Litani River while government moves towards weapons confiscation north of Litani.

Agricultural operations benefit from improved stability outlook following presidential war specter removal declarations. Farmers report improved confidence for seasonal planning as immediate conflict escalation concerns diminish.

The region faces ongoing disarmament implementation as Lebanese Army prepares to extend weapons collection operations north of Litani River under governmental mandate. Presidential optimism provides political cover for challenging disarmament operations in historically resistant areas.

International development projects show renewed interest following presidential optimism and diplomatic breakthrough creating improved security environment for agricultural development and infrastructure improvements.

Key Factor: Disarmament operations extending north of Litani River under improved political environment created by presidential optimism and diplomatic breakthrough.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 78/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Strategic Monitoring. This region faces heightened attention following recent drone strikes killing alleged IRGC operative in Hermel district. However, presidential optimism about war specter removal provides broader context of improved security trajectory.

Infrastructure restoration accelerates under governmental authority with improved international confidence following diplomatic breakthrough. The region benefits from reduced immediate conflict escalation concerns despite recent targeted strikes.

Disarmament operations approach this strategic area as government announces progression of weapons collection north of Litani River. Presidential political support and religious leadership backing provide framework for challenging operations in traditional resistance areas.

Key Factor: Recent targeted strikes balanced by presidential war specter removal optimism while disarmament operations prepare for strategic area implementation.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 65/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Tourism Recovery. The coastal governorate experiences strongest improvement following presidential optimism and Christmas holiday period. Tourism activities increase significantly as domestic and cautious international visitors respond to improved security outlook.

Business operations expand with renewed confidence following presidential declaration that war specter pushed away from Lebanon. Coastal development projects resume as improved stability outlook attracts investment interest.

The region serves as showcase for Lebanon’s recovery potential, with presidential optimism enabling economic activity expansion and international re-engagement in safest areas demonstrating country’s broader stability prospects.

Key Factor: Tourism sector leading recovery with presidential optimism attracting visitors and investment to coastal areas demonstrating Lebanon’s stability potential.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical but Significantly Improved. The south experiences most dramatic improvement following direct Israeli-Lebanese meetings in Naqoura town. This unprecedented diplomatic engagement in southern Lebanon demonstrates functional communication replacing military confrontation.

PM Salam’s announcement of near completion of Hezbollah disarmament south of Litani River represents major milestone in ceasefire implementation. Lebanese Army operations achieve governmental mandate objectives despite ongoing challenges and occasional violations.

Israeli strikes continue at reduced intensity, with IDF claiming to target Hezbollah reconstruction attempts. However, strikes occur within diplomatic framework rather than escalation spiral, with violations addressed through Naqoura meeting mechanism.

Israel has retained troops in Lebanon at five strategic points near the border, and regularly conducts strikes that it says are against Hezbollah attempts to rebuild its strength. However, diplomatic engagement provides mechanism for managing violations rather than escalation.

Key Factor: Historic direct Israeli-Lebanese diplomatic meetings in Naqoura combined with near completion of disarmament south of Litani creating most improved southern security environment.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical but Improving. The governorate benefits from regional diplomatic breakthrough and disarmament progress. PM Salam’s announcement of near completion of weapons collection south of Litani includes this governorate’s territory.

Infrastructure restoration accelerates as improved security outlook attracts international reconstruction funding and humanitarian assistance. Civilian populations experience improved confidence following presidential war specter removal optimism.

The governorate serves as testing ground for disarmament implementation success, demonstrating governmental capacity to collect weapons and establish LAF authority in historically challenging areas.

Key Factor: Disarmament near completion creating governmental authority establishment while presidential optimism enables reconstruction and humanitarian assistance acceleration.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH

🔄 MAJOR POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS:

Priority Level 1 – Historic Diplomatic Achievements:

1. Naqoura Direct Talks – Second Israeli-Lebanese direct meeting this month in southern Lebanon
2. Presidential War Specter Declaration – Aoun announces diplomatic success in preventing major military operation
3. Disarmament South of Litani – PM Salam announces near completion of weapons collection
4. Religious Leadership Support – Patriarch Rahi backs negotiations and weapons collection
5. Netanyahu-Trump Meeting – Lebanon on agenda for U.S. presidential engagement

Priority Level 2 – Implementation Progress: 6. Lebanese Army Disarmament Operations – Moving towards weapons collection north of Litani 7. Ceasefire Mechanism Functioning – Violations addressed through diplomatic channels 8. International Confidence Improvement – Diplomatic breakthrough attracting development support 9. Economic Activity Expansion – Business confidence improving with war fears reduced 10. Tourism Sector Recovery – Domestic and cautious international visitors returning

✅ SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SECURITY ZONES:

Major Improvement Areas:

• Naqoura Area – Hosting historic direct Israeli-Lebanese diplomatic meetings
• South of Litani River – Disarmament near completion under LAF operations
• Central Beirut – Presidential optimism creating improved governmental confidence
• Coastal Areas – Tourism recovery accelerating with reduced war escalation fears
• Religious Centers – Patriarch support providing legitimacy for disarmament efforts

⚠️ CONTINUED MONITORING (REDUCED CONCERN):

Ongoing Challenge Areas:

• Recent targeted strikes on alleged IRGC/Hezbollah operatives
• Five Israeli military positions retained near border
• Disarmament operations preparing for north of Litani implementation
• Regional dynamics from Netanyahu-Trump meeting outcomes

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

MAJOR SECURITY IMPROVEMENT: President Aoun’s declaration that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon” represents the most optimistic presidential security assessment since ceasefire implementation. Diplomatic breakthrough with direct Israeli-Lebanese talks provides mechanisms for managing violations rather than escalation.

CURRENT POSITIVE ENVIRONMENT:

• Presidential Leadership: Aoun’s diplomatic success preventing major military escalation
• Direct Israeli-Lebanese Talks: Second Naqoura meeting demonstrating functional engagement
• Disarmament Progress: Near completion south of Litani with operations moving north
• Religious Support: Patriarch Rahi backing negotiations and weapons collection
• International Engagement: Lebanon on agenda for Netanyahu-Trump meeting

IMPROVED DAILY CONDITIONS:

• War escalation fears significantly reduced by presidential optimism
• Economic activities expanding with improved business confidence
• Tourism sector recovering with domestic and international visitors
• Infrastructure improvements accelerating with international support
• Governmental authority consolidating through successful disarmament operations

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT:

• Reduced War Risk: Presidential declaration removing major escalation concerns
• Diplomatic Framework: Violations managed through Naqoura mechanism rather than escalation
• Disarmament Progress: Governmental authority establishing through successful weapons collection
• International Confidence: Diplomatic breakthrough attracting development funding and partnerships

EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES:

• Tourism sector showing strong recovery indicators
• Infrastructure projects resuming with international support
• Coastal development benefiting from improved stability outlook
• Agricultural sector expanding with reduced conflict concerns
• International business partnerships resuming under improved framework

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY – SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED:

ENHANCED TRAVEL CONDITIONS: Presidential war specter removal declaration combined with diplomatic breakthrough creates Lebanon’s most favorable travel environment since ceasefire implementation.

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS:

• Major Improvement: Presidential optimism and diplomatic success reducing escalation concerns
• Functional Mechanisms: Naqoura talks providing dispute resolution framework
• Tourism Recovery: Domestic and cautious international travel resuming
• Business Travel: Feasible with standard security awareness

RECOMMENDED APPROACH:

• Domestic travel throughout most regions with standard precautions
• Business travel increasingly viable with improved stability outlook
• Tourism activities resuming in coastal and stable areas
• Southern areas improving but maintain awareness of ongoing LAF operations

📊 DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Historic Diplomatic Success – War Specter Removed
Presidential Declaration: Aoun announces diplomatic contacts successfully pushed away major war threat
Direct Israeli-Lebanese Talks: Second Naqoura meeting demonstrating functional engagement framework
Disarmament Progress: Near completion south of Litani with operations moving north

Critical Analysis: President Joseph Aoun’s declaration that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon” following Christmas Day meeting with Patriarch Rahi represents the most significant positive security development since November 2024 ceasefire implementation.

The achievement of direct Israeli-Lebanese meetings in Naqoura, occurring twice this month, demonstrates unprecedented diplomatic engagement between enemy states. This functional communication mechanism replaces military escalation cycles with diplomatic dispute resolution, fundamentally improving Lebanon’s security outlook.

PM Nawaf Salam’s announcement that Lebanon is close to completing Hezbollah disarmament south of Litani River represents major governmental achievement, validating the army’s capacity to implement challenging mandate. Movement towards weapons confiscation north of Litani demonstrates confidence and capability for extending operations to more challenging areas.

Patriarch Rahi’s Christmas message supporting negotiations and Lebanese Army illegal weapons collection provides crucial religious legitimacy for disarmament efforts, reducing sectarian tensions and enabling broader national support for governmental authority consolidation.

Recent Context: Israel has killed more than 300 people in Lebanon since last year’s ceasefire, including about 127 civilians, according to the United Nations. From January to late November, Israeli forces carried out nearly 1,600 strikes across Lebanon. However, the establishment of direct diplomatic talks provides mechanism for addressing violations rather than escalation spirals.

Long-term Prospects: The combination of presidential optimism about war prevention, functional direct diplomatic engagement, significant disarmament progress, and religious leadership support creates Lebanon’s most favorable security trajectory since ceasefire implementation. The upcoming Netanyahu-Trump meeting with Lebanon on agenda provides additional international engagement opportunity.

Lebanon’s economic crisis, described by the World Bank as one of the worst since the 19th century, with Lebanese pound devalued 90% and three-quarters population below poverty line, requires stable security environment for recovery. Current diplomatic breakthrough enables focusing on economic reconstruction rather than conflict preparation.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH SUPPORT SERVICES

🎯 LEBANON’S SECURITY TRANSFORMATION – PROFESSIONAL SERVICES DURING HISTORIC IMPROVEMENT

CIS Security adapts comprehensive services to support Lebanon’s diplomatic breakthrough period while maintaining professional protection capabilities as security environment fundamentally improves under presidential optimism and direct Israeli-Lebanese engagement.

DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH PERIOD SERVICES:

Governmental Success Support:

• Presidential Security Enhancement – Protection for diplomatic engagement and optimistic security leadership
• Disarmament Operation Coordination – Professional support for LAF weapons collection north of Litani
• Direct Talks Security – Protection services for Naqoura meeting mechanism participants
• Religious Leadership Security – Professional protection for Patriarch Rahi and church engagement

Economic Recovery Enablement:

• Business Expansion Security – Professional services supporting improved confidence and growth
• Tourism Sector Protection – Comprehensive security for recovering visitor industry
• Infrastructure Project Security – Protection for accelerating reconstruction and development
• International Partnership Security – Professional services for resuming foreign engagement

Reduced Threat Environment Operations:

• Standard Security Services – Professional protection without crisis-level protocols
• Preventive Monitoring – Continued assessment while recognizing improved environment
• Economic Activity Support – Security enabling business and tourism expansion
• Governmental Authority Support – Professional coordination with successful LAF operations

SPECIALIZED IMPROVEMENT PERIOD SERVICES:

Diplomatic Framework Support:

• Professional security for participants in direct Israeli-Lebanese talks
• Protection for governmental delegations and international engagement
• Security coordination with ceasefire monitoring mechanisms
• Diplomatic meeting security and protocol support

Disarmament Success Protection:

• Security coordination with LAF weapons collection operations
• Protection for governmental authority establishment in former resistance areas
• Professional support for north of Litani disarmament implementation
• International observer and humanitarian coordinator security

Tourism Recovery Services:

• Enhanced security for returning domestic and international visitors
• Protection for coastal tourism activities and hospitality sector
• Event security for cultural activities and business conferences
• Professional services demonstrating Lebanon’s improved safety

📞 DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH COORDINATION

IMPROVEMENT PERIOD HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional security supporting Lebanon’s historic diplomatic success and security transformation

DISARMAMENT SUPPORT SECURITY: Coordination with LAF operations extending north of Litani
TOURISM RECOVERY PROTECTION: Comprehensive services for returning visitors and hospitality sector
ECONOMIC EXPANSION SECURITY: Professional protection enabling business growth and international partnerships

Transformation Period Centers:

• Diplomatic Engagement Support: Security for Naqoura talks and international coordination
• Governmental Success Center: Professional protection for presidential leadership and LAF operations
• Economic Recovery Division: Comprehensive security enabling business and tourism expansion
• International Partnership Office: Professional services for resumed foreign engagement

During Lebanon’s historic diplomatic breakthrough with President Aoun declaring war specter removed and direct Israeli-Lebanese talks establishing functional mechanism, CIS Security’s professional services support governmental success, economic recovery, and tourism resumption while maintaining protection standards during Lebanon’s security transformation period.

⚠️ DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH OPERATIONAL SUCCESS

HISTORIC SECURITY IMPROVEMENT: President Joseph Aoun’s declaration that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon” combined with direct Israeli-Lebanese meetings in Naqoura represents Lebanon’s most significant positive security development since November 2024 ceasefire implementation.

Transformation Recognition: Presidential optimism based on diplomatic contacts success, PM Salam’s announcement of near-completion disarmament south of Litani, and Patriarch Rahi’s support for negotiations create fundamentally improved security environment requiring service adaptation rather than crisis protocols.

Professional Adaptation: CIS Security transitions from crisis-focused operations to improvement period services, supporting governmental diplomatic success, economic recovery acceleration, and tourism sector resumption while maintaining professional protection standards during Lebanon’s security transformation.

Continued Excellence: Our services support Lebanon’s diplomatic breakthrough through professional security for governmental operations, economic activity expansion, tourism recovery, and international re-engagement under President Aoun’s leadership and PM Salam’s disarmament implementation success.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s historic diplomatic breakthrough with President Aoun declaring war specter removed and direct Israeli-Lebanese talks in Naqoura, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise supporting governmental success and economic recovery. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive services for Lebanon’s security transformation including disarmament operation coordination, tourism recovery protection, business expansion security, and diplomatic engagement support. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting Lebanon’s improved security environment under President Aoun’s diplomatic success and PM Salam’s disarmament implementation.

CIS Security Transformation Period Services:

• Governmental Success Support – Professional security for presidential diplomatic achievements and LAF operations
• Disarmament Coordination – Security supporting weapons collection operations extending north of Litani
• Tourism Recovery Protection – Comprehensive services for returning domestic and international visitors
• Business Expansion Security – Professional protection enabling economic growth under improved environment
• Diplomatic Engagement Security – Protection for Naqoura talks participants and international coordination
• Infrastructure Development Security – Professional services for accelerating reconstruction projects

Why Choose CIS During Security Transformation: ✓ 35+ Years Transformation Experience – Proven security supporting Lebanon through improvement and recovery periods
✓ Presidential Success Support – Professional coordination with diplomatic breakthrough and governmental achievements
✓ Disarmament Operation Partnership – Security expertise supporting LAF weapons collection implementation
✓ Economic Recovery Enablement – Professional services supporting business and tourism expansion
✓ International Standards – Security meeting requirements for resumed foreign engagement and partnerships
✓ Adaptation Excellence – Professional transition from crisis protocols to improvement period services

Diplomatic Breakthrough Support: 📞 Transformation Hotline: +961-3-539900
💬 Economic Recovery Security: Professional protection for business expansion and tourism resumption
🌐 Governmental Success Services: www.cissecurity.net – Comprehensive diplomatic breakthrough support
📧 International Partnership Protection: Professional security for resumed foreign engagement

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