🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Thursday, Jan 1 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 89/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ NEW YEAR ESCALATION – TRUMP GREEN LIGHT REPORTS & ONGOING STRIKES

🚨 BREAKING: NEW YEAR BEGINS WITH MAJOR ESCALATION THREAT

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – THURSDAY, JANUARY 1, 2026:

TRUMP GREEN LIGHT REPORTED: Israeli reports say Trump gave Netanyahu green light for potential strike on Hezbollah. The Israeli army has raised its readiness level in anticipation of a potential attack on Hezbollah, according to Israeli media reports published today, marking a dramatic escalation as the new year begins.

ACTIVE STRIKES ON NEW YEAR’S DAY: Al-Manar correspondent reports Israeli occupation artillery shelling targets the outskirts of Yaroun, south Lebanon, demonstrating that attacks continue without pause even on January 1, 2026. Israeli artillery shelled the outskirts of the town of Rashaya al-Fakhar in southern Lebanon with two rounds during New Year’s celebrations.

CONTINUED CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS: Israeli strikes continue in southern and eastern Lebanon despite a ceasefire, with the UN recording dozens of civilian deaths. Talks come as Israel launches near-daily attacks across Lebanon in violation of 2024 ceasefire with Hezbollah.

BANKING CRISIS RESPONSE: Lebanon’s cabinet has passed a draft law aimed at repaying depositors up to $100,000 of their own money, providing some relief for depositors affected by the banking crisis while security challenges continue.

SECTARIAN TENSIONS: Reports highlight the sectarianism that persists in Lebanon, undermining the country’s unity as the nation enters the new year with deep political divisions and ongoing external pressures.

US AID CONDITIONALITY: US bill links Lebanese army aid to Hezbollah disarmament, creating additional pressure on the Lebanese government to enforce disarmament while managing ongoing Israeli violations and domestic political tensions.

DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH CONTEXT: Lebanon and Israel hold first direct talks since 1983, though this historic engagement occurs against backdrop of continued strikes and escalation threats entering the new year.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Major Escalation Threat. The capital enters 2026 facing unprecedented challenges as Israeli reports of Trump administration green light for potential strike on Hezbollah creates maximum tension. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam face impossible situation managing domestic governance while confronting potential major military escalation.

The government operates under extreme pressure with multiple simultaneous crises: banking crisis requiring depositor relief legislation, U.S. aid conditionality linking army support to Hezbollah disarmament, and Israeli media reports of Trump authorization for major strike creating imminent escalation threat.

Lebanese army Chief’s visit to US back on table indicates renewed diplomatic engagement, but occurs against backdrop of reports that Trump administration has authorized Netanyahu to conduct major operations against Hezbollah, fundamentally changing security calculations.

The cabinet’s passage of draft law for depositor repayment up to $100,000 provides some domestic relief, but financial crisis management becomes secondary to immediate security threats from reported Trump green light and continued daily violations.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects not only standard protection but acute awareness that Israeli media reports indicate potential major operation authorized by incoming Trump administration, creating maximum alert conditions for governmental facilities.

Key Factor: Trump green light reports creating imminent major escalation threat while government manages simultaneous banking crisis, U.S. aid conditionality, and ongoing daily violations.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Escalation Preparation. The governorate faces severe anxiety from Israeli reports that Trump gave Netanyahu authorization for potential strike on Hezbollah, creating conditions for major escalation affecting all regions beyond traditional southern conflict zones.

Sectarianism that persists in Lebanon undermining unity becomes critical concern as reports of potential major Israeli operation create fears of broader conflict affecting multi-sectarian areas throughout Mount Lebanon. Political divisions could deepen during major escalation.

Business operations contract as Trump green light reports eliminate any planning certainty for 2026. Tourism sector faces complete collapse as new year begins with reports of incoming Trump administration authorizing major military operations creating maximum danger perception.

The region serves as primary destination for potential displaced populations if major escalation occurs following reported Trump authorization, requiring emergency preparation for massive humanitarian needs and displacement management.

Infrastructure improvements halt as Trump escalation reports require all resources redirected toward emergency preparedness and potential major conflict contingency planning affecting governmental capacity throughout the governorate.

Key Factor: Trump green light reports creating maximum escalation anxiety while sectarian tensions and potential displacement preparation eliminate economic stability and planning capability.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 84/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Regional Escalation Concerns. Tripoli and surrounding areas face severe challenges from Trump green light reports creating potential for major Israeli operation that could affect northern regions beyond traditional southern conflict zones.

The port city’s commercial activities contract completely as reports of Trump authorization for Netanyahu eliminate business confidence and create fears of broader regional escalation affecting economic operations throughout northern Lebanon.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria become critical as Trump escalation reports create potential for massive displacement requiring cross-border humanitarian coordination and refugee management beyond current capacity.

Economic conditions deteriorate completely as new year begins with Israeli media reports of incoming Trump administration green light creating impossible planning environment and eliminating any investment or business expansion considerations.

Infrastructure systems prepare for potential major escalation as Trump reports indicate possible broader conflict requiring emergency resource allocation and contingency planning throughout northern regions.

Key Factor: Trump authorization reports creating regional escalation fears while commercial collapse and potential displacement preparation eliminate economic functionality.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Border Security Crisis Potential. The Syrian border situation faces extreme pressure from Trump green light reports creating potential for major escalation driving massive displacement across borders beyond current management capacity.

Lebanese Armed Forces operations face impossible conditions where U.S. bill linking army aid to Hezbollah disarmament creates funding pressure while Trump reports indicate potential major Israeli operation making disarmament implementation extremely dangerous.

Cross-border security preparation becomes critical as Trump escalation reports create scenarios for massive population movements requiring enhanced coordination with Syrian authorities for humanitarian emergency management.

The region’s limited resources face overwhelming potential demands from Trump green light scenario creating major escalation and displacement requiring international humanitarian intervention beyond current capacity.

Key Factor: Trump authorization reports creating border crisis preparation requirements while U.S. aid conditionality complicates LAF operations during potential major escalation.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 87/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Primary Escalation Target Zone. The valley faces maximum danger as traditional Hezbollah stronghold likely to be primary target if Trump green light reports result in major Israeli operation against the group.

Agricultural operations halt completely as Trump authorization reports create conditions where the valley, as strategic Hezbollah area, becomes primary target zone for potential major operation entering new year.

All civilian activities contract to emergency preparation as Israeli media reports of Trump green light indicate valley faces potential major military operations beyond current daily violation patterns affecting traditional conflict zones.

International development projects suspend completely as Trump escalation reports eliminate any operational security for international personnel or programs in valley areas identified as Hezbollah strongholds.

The region’s strategic importance as Hezbollah base makes it primary target zone if Trump reports of authorization for major operation materialize, requiring immediate civilian evacuation preparation and emergency response planning.

Key Factor: Trump green light reports indicating valley as primary target zone for potential major operation requiring immediate civilian protection and evacuation preparation.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Maximum Escalation Target Risk. This region faces maximum danger entering 2026 as Trump green light reports indicate potential major Israeli operation likely to target Hezbollah strongholds including Baalbek-Hermel.

All normal activities suspend as Trump authorization reports create conditions where region faces potential major military operation beyond daily violations currently experienced.

Infrastructure protection becomes impossible as Trump green light reports indicate potential broad military campaign targeting Hezbollah areas making civilian infrastructure extremely vulnerable.

The region’s historical significance as center of Hezbollah operations makes it maximum target zone if Israeli media reports of Trump authorization result in major operation materializing.

Civilian population requires immediate evacuation preparation as Trump escalation reports create conditions for potential major military operation targeting the region specifically.

Key Factor: Maximum target zone risk from Trump green light reports requiring immediate civilian evacuation preparation and emergency response planning for potential major operation.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 78/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Spillover Escalation Concerns. The coastal governorate faces severe anxiety from Trump green light reports creating potential for broader conflict affecting areas beyond traditional southern zones.

Tourism sector collapses completely as new year begins with Israeli reports of Trump authorization for potential major operation eliminating all visitor confidence and safety perceptions.

Business operations contract as Trump escalation reports create impossible planning environment for 2026 with potential major conflict eliminating economic stability considerations.

The region prepares for potential displacement reception as Trump green light scenario could drive massive population movements from targeted Hezbollah stronghold areas requiring emergency humanitarian response.

Key Factor: Trump authorization reports creating broader conflict fears while tourism collapse and displacement preparation eliminate economic functionality.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Combat Zone with Escalation Threat. The south experiences maximum danger entering 2026 with active strikes on New Year’s Day (Yaroun, Rashaya al-Fakhar) while Trump green light reports create potential for major escalation beyond current violation patterns.

Israeli occupation artillery shelling targets outskirts of Yaroun on January 1 demonstrates attacks continue without pause even on new year’s day, while Trump authorization reports indicate potential for operations of completely different scale.

Raids hit hills and valleys as Israeli military keeps up pressure to force Hezbollah to disarm, but Trump green light reports suggest potential transition from pressure operations to major combat campaign.

Civilian populations face active targeting on New Year’s Day combined with Trump escalation reports creating maximum danger requiring immediate protection and evacuation consideration.

UNIFIL operations face extreme challenges as continued strikes on January 1 occur simultaneously with Israeli media reports of Trump authorization for potential major operation fundamentally changing peacekeeping environment.

Key Factor: Active New Year’s Day strikes (Yaroun, Rashaya al-Fakhar) combined with Trump green light reports creating maximum danger from both current violations and potential major escalation.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Targeting Zone with Major Escalation Threat. The governorate faces extreme danger from ongoing violations combined with Trump green light reports indicating potential major operation affecting southern areas.

Civilian infrastructure faces continued targeting under current violation patterns while Trump authorization reports create scenarios for major escalation beyond daily strikes currently experienced.

Medical facilities operate under maximum pressure treating casualties from ongoing strikes while preparing for potential major escalation if Trump green light reports materialize into major operation.

All civilian services operate with emergency protocols as Trump escalation reports create conditions for potential major military campaign affecting the governorate specifically.

Key Factor: Ongoing targeting combined with Trump authorization reports requiring emergency civilian protection and major escalation preparation.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – NEW YEAR ESCALATION CRISIS

🔥 IMMEDIATE EXTREME HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Strikes & Maximum Escalation Threat:

1. Yaroun – Israeli artillery shelling on New Year’s Day January 1, 2026
2. Rashaya al-Fakhar – Israeli artillery strikes with two rounds on January 1
3. All Hezbollah Strongholds – Primary target zones if Trump green light reports materialize
4. Beqaa Valley – Traditional Hezbollah base identified as likely target in major operation scenario
5. Baalbek-Hermel – Maximum danger as potential primary target zone

Priority Level 2 – Trump Escalation Scenario Targets: 6. All Southern Lebanon – Active violations combined with potential major operation escalation 7. Dahiyeh Beirut Suburbs – Hezbollah operational areas potential targets in escalation 8. Syrian Border Areas – Potential displacement routes if major escalation occurs 9. Palestinian Refugee Camps – Vulnerable populations during broader escalation 10. All Civilian Infrastructure – Maximum vulnerability during potential major operation

🚨 MAXIMUM ALERT – TRUMP GREEN LIGHT REPORTS:

Following Israeli media reports that Trump gave Netanyahu green light for potential strike on Hezbollah with Israeli army raising readiness level in anticipation, Lebanon faces maximum escalation threat entering 2026.

Critical Escalation Indicators:

• Israeli reports of Trump authorization for major Hezbollah operation
• Israeli army raised readiness level in anticipation of potential attack
• Active strikes continuing on New Year’s Day (Yaroun, Rashaya al-Fakhar)
• U.S. aid conditionality linking army support to disarmament creating additional pressure
• First direct Israel-Lebanon talks since 1983 occurring under escalation shadow

⚠️ IMMEDIATE EVACUATION REQUIRED:

• ALL HEZBOLLAH STRONGHOLD AREAS – Primary targets if Trump authorization materializes
• Beqaa Valley and Baalbek-Hermel – Maximum target zone risk
• Southern Lebanon – Active strikes with potential major escalation
• Beirut Southern Suburbs (Dahiyeh) – Operational areas potential targets
• All Palestinian Refugee Camps – Vulnerable populations during escalation

📱 EMERGENCY ESCALATION GUIDANCE – TRUMP GREEN LIGHT CRISIS

🏠 CRITICAL SURVIVAL GUIDANCE:

IMMEDIATE MAJOR ESCALATION THREAT: Israeli reports that Trump gave Netanyahu green light for potential strike on Hezbollah with Israeli army raising readiness level creates most dangerous security environment since November 2024 ceasefire began.

EMERGENCY SURVIVAL ACTIONS:

• EVACUATE HEZBOLLAH AREAS IMMEDIATELY – Primary targets if authorization materializes
• UNDERGROUND SHELTER ESSENTIAL – Potential major operation beyond current strike patterns
• EMERGENCY SUPPLIES CRITICAL – Minimum 1-month supplies for potential major conflict
• EVACUATION ROUTES PREPARED – Immediate departure capability if escalation begins
• INTERNATIONAL EVACUATION COORDINATION – Contact embassies for emergency extraction

TRUMP ESCALATION SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS: The reported green light from incoming Trump administration for Netanyahu to conduct major Hezbollah operations represents fundamental shift from current limited strikes to potential comprehensive military campaign requiring maximum civilian protection.

NEW YEAR’S DAY ATTACKS CONTINUATION: Yaroun and Rashaya al-Fakhar artillery strikes on January 1 demonstrate operations continue without pause even on holidays, while Trump reports indicate potential transition to operations of completely different scale and intensity.

🏢 EMERGENCY BUSINESS PROTOCOLS:

MANDATORY ESCALATION RESPONSE:

• IMMEDIATE OPERATIONS SUSPENSION – Trump green light reports eliminating operational security
• EMPLOYEE EVACUATION – All personnel from Hezbollah stronghold areas immediately
• EMERGENCY CLOSURE PROTOCOLS – Potential major escalation requiring complete shutdown
• INTERNATIONAL PERSONNEL EXTRACTION – Embassy coordination for foreign national evacuation

🚗 EMERGENCY TRAVEL STATUS:

ABSOLUTE PROHIBITION – MAXIMUM ESCALATION THREAT: DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON – TRUMP GREEN LIGHT FOR MAJOR OPERATION REPORTED

Current maximum danger conditions:

• Israeli Media Reports – Trump authorization for Netanyahu to strike Hezbollah
• IDF Readiness Raised – Army anticipating potential attack operations
• New Year’s Day Strikes – Yaroun and Rashaya al-Fakhar attacked January 1
• Comprehensive Target Risk – Potential major operation beyond current strike patterns
• Civilian Protection Breakdown – Major escalation eliminating safety frameworks

🔮 CRITICAL 24-HOUR ESCALATION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 92/100
Forecast Trend: ⚡ MAJOR ESCALATION IMMINENT

Imminent Maximum Threats:

1. Major Israeli Operation Launch – Trump green light reports with IDF readiness raised
2. Hezbollah Stronghold Targeting – Beqaa, Baalbek-Hermel, Dahiyeh primary targets
3. Comprehensive Military Campaign – Beyond current limited strike patterns
4. Mass Civilian Casualties – Major operation affecting populated Hezbollah areas
5. Regional Escalation – Potential broader conflict beyond Lebanon borders

Critical Preparation Imperative: Trump green light reports with Israeli army readiness raised creates most dangerous 24-hour period since November 2024 ceasefire requiring immediate civilian evacuation and emergency preparation.

📊 NEW YEAR ESCALATION CRISIS ANALYSIS

Today’s Crisis Level: Maximum Escalation Threat – Trump Authorization Reported
Governmental Challenge: Impossible situation managing potential major operation
International Dynamics: Trump green light reports fundamentally changing security environment
Civilian Protection: Maximum danger requiring immediate evacuation from target areas

Critical Analysis: Lebanon enters 2026 facing maximum escalation threat as Israeli reports indicate Trump gave Netanyahu green light for potential strike on Hezbollah with Israeli army raising readiness level in anticipation. This represents fundamental shift from current near-daily limited strikes to potential comprehensive military campaign.

New Year’s Day strikes on Yaroun and Rashaya al-Fakhar demonstrate operations continue without pause, while Trump authorization reports indicate potential transition to operations of completely different scale affecting Hezbollah strongholds throughout Lebanon.

The convergence of Trump green light reports, raised IDF readiness, U.S. aid conditionality linking army support to disarmament, and ongoing daily violations creates unprecedented danger requiring immediate civilian protection and evacuation from all potential target areas.

Long-term Implications: If Trump authorization reports materialize into major operation, Lebanon faces potential return to full-scale conflict beyond November 2024 ceasefire framework, requiring comprehensive international humanitarian intervention and civilian protection beyond current capacity.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: MAXIMUM ESCALATION EMERGENCY RESPONSE

🚨 TRUMP GREEN LIGHT CRISIS – MAJOR OPERATION THREAT

Following Israeli reports that Trump gave Netanyahu green light for potential strike on Hezbollah with IDF readiness raised, CIS Security activates maximum escalation emergency protocols.

IMMEDIATE TRUMP ESCALATION RESPONSE:

Major Operation Preparation:

• Hezbollah Area Evacuation – Immediate extraction from all potential target zones
• Underground Shelter Coordination – Maximum protection during potential major campaign
• Emergency Supply Distribution – 1-month minimum supplies for extended conflict
• International Evacuation Coordination – Embassy liaison for foreign national extraction

Maximum Alert Security:

• Real-time IDF Monitoring – Continuous assessment of readiness and operation indicators
• Target Zone Protection – Enhanced security for populations in potential strike areas
• Emergency Response Teams – Pre-positioned for immediate major escalation response
• International Coordination – Diplomatic and humanitarian organization liaison

📞 MAXIMUM EMERGENCY CONTACT

TRUMP ESCALATION HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Immediate major operation threat response and evacuation coordination

HEZBOLLAH AREA EVACUATION: Professional extraction from all potential target zones
MAXIMUM ALERT SECURITY: Enhanced protection during IDF readiness and Trump green light period
INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION: Embassy evacuation and foreign national extraction support

When Trump green light reports and raised IDF readiness create maximum escalation threat, CIS Security’s major operation protocols provide comprehensive protection and evacuation coordination during Lebanon’s most dangerous period entering 2026.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During maximum escalation crisis with Israeli reports of Trump green light for major Hezbollah operation, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years proven expertise. Our comprehensive emergency services include Hezbollah stronghold evacuation, major operation protection, international extraction coordination, and maximum alert security for Lebanon’s most dangerous period entering 2026.

Emergency Services: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net
Maximum escalation response when Trump authorization and IDF readiness create imminent major operation threat requiring immediate civilian evacuation and comprehensive protection.