CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Jan 21 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 82/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – PRESIDENTIAL DISARMAMENT COMMITMENT WITH ONGOING STRIKES

🚨 BREAKING: PRESIDENT AOUN COMMITS TO DISARMAMENT BEFORE WASHINGTON VISIT

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 21, 2026:

PRESIDENTIAL DISARMAMENT COMMITMENT: President Joseph Aoun stressed Tuesday in a press conference his commitment to disarm Hezbollah and implement the state’s monopoly on arms. “What you see, not what you hear”: Aoun says only army operating south of Litani, demonstrating strong governmental stance on sovereignty and security implementation.

UPCOMING WASHINGTON VISIT: Army chief to visit Washington from February 3 to 5, indicating high-level U.S.-Lebanon military coordination and international support for Lebanese Armed Forces operations and disarmament efforts.

NORTH LITANI ACTION PLANNED: President Joseph Aoun and Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal have committed to taking “a certain step in the North Litani region” prior to Washington visit, suggesting imminent military operations expanding disarmament implementation beyond southern areas.

DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT: Berri says meeting with bin Farhan was ‘excellent’ – To Saudi Arabia, it is important that the Lebanese decisions come from the Lebanese state, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said, demonstrating regional diplomatic support for Lebanese governmental authority.

ONGOING ISRAELI STRIKES: Israel targets south Lebanon with series of strikes despite presidential disarmament commitments, with United Nations peacekeepers saying a drone ‘dropped a grenade’ on its troops as Israel continued attacks on Lebanon.

HEZBOLLAH’S RESISTANCE: Qassem clings to arms, slams Rajji and says state responsible for protection – Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem accused Lebanon of inaction over the reported kidnapping of former officer Ahmad Shukr and reiterated Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm.

DRONE STRIKES CONTINUING: Dozens of families fled a targeted village after an Israeli warning was issued, with drone activity in the area. Israel claims the drone attack on a car targeted a Hezbollah member, demonstrating continued targeting operations despite ceasefire arrangements.

RECENT CASUALTIES: The latest drone strike targeted an excavator in the town of Blida, south Lebanon, while initial information indicates that one person was killed in an Israeli airstrike targeting a vehicle in the town of Qlaileh, south Lebanon.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Lebanon’s cabinet has passed a draft law aimed at repaying depositors up to $100,000 of their own money, addressing ongoing banking crisis while managing security challenges.

PORT ACTIVITY RECOVERY: Numbers tell the story: Beirut Port logs highest monthly activity since financial collapse, boosting state revenues, indicating economic recovery progress amid security challenges.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 76/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Strong Presidential Leadership. The capital experiences significant governmental assertiveness as President Joseph Aoun delivers clear message: “What you see, not what you hear” regarding army operations south of Litani, demonstrating presidential commitment to sovereignty and state authority.

The upcoming Army Chief visit to Washington (February 3-5) provides international framework for Lebanese Armed Forces capacity building and disarmament implementation, creating diplomatic support structure for governmental operations.

Speaker Berri’s “excellent” meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister bin Farhan indicates regional support for Lebanese state decision-making, with Saudi Arabia emphasizing importance of decisions coming from Lebanese state rather than non-state actors.

The cabinet’s passage of depositor repayment law (up to $100,000) demonstrates governmental functionality on economic matters while managing security challenges, providing some relief to banking crisis victims.

Beirut Port’s highest monthly activity since financial collapse boosts state revenues, creating economic foundation for governmental operations while demonstrating recovery progress despite ongoing security tensions.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects ongoing vigilance, but presidential clarity on disarmament commitment creates stronger governmental authority framework than previous periods of ambiguity.

Key Factor: Presidential disarmament commitment with “only army operating south of Litani” statement creating governmental authority while regional diplomatic support and economic recovery provide implementation foundation.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 73/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Governmental Confidence. The governorate benefits from presidential clarity on disarmament, with “what you see, not what you hear” approach providing stronger governmental framework than previous rhetorical periods.

Business operations show cautious optimism as presidential commitment to state monopoly on arms creates potential for long-term stability, though ongoing Israeli strikes create continued uncertainty about implementation success.

The planned “certain step in North Litani” prior to Washington visit suggests expanded disarmament operations may affect Mount Lebanon regions, creating both security concerns and potential for improved state authority consolidation.

Tourism sector shows mixed indicators as governmental assertiveness attracts some confidence while ongoing strikes and displacement from southern areas create continued challenges for international visitor attraction.

Economic activities benefit from Beirut Port recovery and depositor law passage, demonstrating governmental functionality on economic matters providing foundation for business planning despite security challenges.

Key Factor: Presidential disarmament clarity creating governmental confidence while planned North Litani operations may expand state authority to broader regions including Mount Lebanon areas.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 75/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Regional Governmental Focus. Tripoli and surrounding areas face particular attention as “certain step in North Litani region” suggests expanded disarmament operations may directly affect northern areas prior to February Washington visit.

The port city benefits from overall Beirut Port recovery trends while regional economic activities show gradual improvement under stable governmental framework with clear presidential leadership.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable with continued coordination, while regional diplomatic engagement (Berri-bin Farhan meeting) creates support framework for Lebanese governmental operations.

Economic conditions improve gradually as depositor law and port recovery demonstrate governmental functionality, though planned North Litani operations create uncertainty about specific regional impacts and implementation timelines.

Infrastructure projects proceed under stable governmental authority with clear presidential direction, though resource allocation for planned disarmament operations may affect development project timelines.

Key Factor: Planned “North Litani step” potentially affecting northern regions directly while governmental assertiveness and regional support create framework for state authority consolidation.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 76/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Security Enhancement. The Syrian border situation benefits from overall governmental assertiveness and clear presidential direction on state monopoly on arms affecting security dynamics.

Lebanese Armed Forces operations gain stronger political backing from presidential clarity on disarmament, creating enhanced framework for border security operations and state authority implementation.

The Army Chief’s upcoming Washington visit (February 3-5) suggests international military support for LAF operations including border security, creating capacity building framework for enhanced monitoring and control capabilities.

Cross-border humanitarian coordination proceeds normally while governmental clarity on security operations creates predictable framework for border management and regional coordination.

Key Factor: Presidential disarmament commitment enhancing LAF political backing while Washington visit providing international military support framework for border security operations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Disarmament Implementation Focus. The valley experiences particular tension as “certain step in North Litani” suggests disarmament operations may expand to Beqaa regions, directly challenging Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s continued refusal to disarm creates direct confrontation with President Aoun’s commitment to state monopoly on arms, making Beqaa focal point for governmental authority versus armed group resistance.

Agricultural operations face uncertainty as potential disarmament operations may create security disruptions, though governmental clarity provides framework for eventual stability if implementation succeeds.

The valley’s strategic importance makes it critical test case for presidential disarmament commitment, with “what you see, not what you hear” approach suggesting concrete operations rather than rhetorical statements.

International support through Army Chief Washington visit provides framework for LAF operations in challenging environments like Beqaa, creating capacity building for state authority consolidation.

Key Factor: Direct confrontation between presidential disarmament commitment and Hezbollah’s refusal creating Beqaa as critical test zone for state authority implementation.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical with State Authority Challenge. This region faces maximum tension as traditional Hezbollah stronghold confronts presidential commitment to disarm and implement state monopoly on arms.

The planned “North Litani step” may extend to Hermel areas as part of comprehensive disarmament strategy, creating direct challenge to armed group presence in historical stronghold regions.

Infrastructure projects face uncertainty as potential disarmament operations may create security disruptions, though successful implementation could create foundation for long-term development under state authority.

Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm despite presidential commitment creates impossible immediate implementation conditions, requiring sustained governmental pressure and international support through mechanisms like Army Chief Washington visit.

All civilian activities operate with awareness of potential confrontation between state authority and armed group resistance, creating tense environment requiring careful navigation and enhanced security awareness.

Key Factor: Presidential disarmament commitment creating direct challenge to Hezbollah stronghold while sustained governmental pressure and international support required for implementation success.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 70/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Stability Prospects. The coastal governorate benefits significantly from presidential clarity and governmental assertiveness, creating potential for tourism recovery and business confidence improvement.

Tourism sector shows improved prospects as “only army operating south of Litani” commitment provides clearer security framework than previous periods, though ongoing Israeli strikes create continued international confidence challenges.

Business operations expand cautiously as depositor law passage and port recovery demonstrate governmental functionality, creating economic foundation while presidential disarmament commitment provides potential long-term stability framework.

The region serves as model for areas where state authority operates without armed group challenge, demonstrating potential benefits of successful disarmament implementation for broader Lebanese regions.

Economic activities benefit from Beirut Port recovery trends while governmental clarity on security creates predictable framework for business planning and investment decisions.

Key Factor: Governmental assertiveness and economic recovery creating stability model while demonstrating potential benefits of successful disarmament for broader Lebanese regions.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Operations Despite Presidential Commitment. The south experiences ongoing Israeli strikes despite President Aoun’s assertion that “only army operating south of Litani,” demonstrating gap between governmental commitment and implementation reality.

Recent casualties including one person killed in Qlaileh airstrike and excavator targeted in Blida demonstrate continued lethal operations, while UNIFIL reports drone dropping grenade on peacekeepers shows escalating attacks on international forces.

Civilian populations flee targeted villages after Israeli warnings, with dozens of families displaced by drone activity and strike threats, creating ongoing humanitarian challenges despite ceasefire framework.

Presidential commitment to disarmament faces implementation challenges as ongoing Israeli strikes create dangerous operational environment for LAF operations, requiring international pressure for Israeli compliance with ceasefire obligations.

UNIFIL operations face continued threats as attacks on peacekeepers escalate, undermining international monitoring effectiveness and creating additional security challenges for disarmament implementation.

Key Factor: Presidential disarmament commitment facing implementation challenges from ongoing Israeli strikes creating dangerous operational environment despite governmental assertion of army-only operations.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 86/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Ongoing Targeting. The governorate continues experiencing Israeli strikes and targeting operations despite presidential commitment to state authority south of Litani.

Civilian infrastructure faces continued threats as vehicle targeting (Qlaileh incident) demonstrates ongoing operations affecting civilian populations and economic activities.

Medical facilities continue treating casualties from ongoing operations while governmental commitment to disarmament proceeds despite challenging security environment requiring enhanced civilian protection.

All civilian services operate with awareness of continued targeting risk despite ceasefire framework, requiring enhanced security protocols and international monitoring to protect civilian populations.

Key Factor: Ongoing targeting operations continuing despite presidential disarmament commitment creating challenges for civilian protection and state authority implementation.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔄 AREAS UNDER GOVERNMENTAL FOCUS:

Priority Level 1 – Presidential Commitment Implementation:

1. South of Litani – “Only army operating” presidential commitment requiring Israeli compliance
2. North Litani Region – “Certain step” planned prior to February Washington visit
3. Hezbollah Strongholds – Direct challenge from disarmament commitment versus refusal to disarm
4. Lebanese Army Operational Areas – Enhanced political backing for disarmament operations
5. International Support Framework – Army Chief Washington visit February 3-5

Priority Level 2 – Ongoing Strike Zones: 6. Qlaileh Area – Recent fatal airstrike targeting vehicle 7. Blida – Excavator targeted by drone strike 8. Displaced Villages – Dozens of families fleeing after Israeli warnings 9. UNIFIL Positions – Grenade attack on peacekeepers escalating threats 10. Vehicle Routes South – Continued targeting operations affecting civilian transportation

✅ IMPROVED GOVERNMENTAL FRAMEWORK:

Presidential Assertiveness Creating Stronger Authority:

• Clear Disarmament Commitment – “What you see, not what you hear” versus rhetorical statements
• Regional Diplomatic Support – Saudi Arabia emphasizing Lebanese state decision-making importance
• International Military Support – Army Chief Washington visit providing LAF capacity building
• Economic Functionality – Depositor law and port recovery demonstrating governmental capability
• Planned Operations – “North Litani step” suggesting concrete implementation rather than rhetoric

⚠️ IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES:

Ongoing Obstacles to Presidential Commitment:

• Continued Israeli strikes despite “only army” assertion creating operational dangers
• Hezbollah refusal to disarm directly challenging state authority
• UNIFIL attacks escalating despite peacekeeping role in implementation
• Civilian displacement from ongoing targeting affecting population stability

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

IMPROVED GOVERNMENTAL FRAMEWORK: President Aoun’s clear commitment to disarmament and state monopoly on arms creates stronger governmental authority framework than previous periods, though implementation faces significant challenges requiring sustained effort and international support.

CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT:

• Presidential Clarity: “Only army operating south of Litani” providing clear governmental direction
• Planned Operations: “North Litani step” prior to Washington visit suggesting concrete implementation
• Regional Support: Saudi Arabia emphasizing Lebanese state decision-making importance
• International Military Support: Army Chief Washington visit providing LAF capacity building framework

ONGOING CHALLENGES REQUIRING AWARENESS:

• Israeli strikes continuing despite presidential commitment creating operational dangers
• Hezbollah refusal to disarm requiring sustained governmental pressure
• Civilian displacement from targeting operations requiring humanitarian response
• UNIFIL attacks escalating despite international monitoring role

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

IMPROVED BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: Presidential clarity on disarmament combined with depositor law passage and port recovery demonstrates governmental functionality creating potential for business confidence improvement and planning framework.

OPERATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES:

• Depositor law providing partial banking crisis relief for businesses
• Port recovery boosting state revenues and economic activity
• Presidential commitment potentially creating long-term stability framework
• Regional diplomatic support providing business confidence foundation

CONTINUED VIGILANCE REQUIRED:

• Ongoing strikes affecting southern operations and supply chains
• Planned disarmament operations may create temporary disruptions
• Implementation challenges requiring patient assessment before major investments
• International support crucial for sustained improvement

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY:

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM WITH AWARENESS: Presidential assertiveness and governmental functionality create improved framework, though ongoing strikes and implementation challenges require continued caution and security awareness for all travelers.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Government Areas: Improved stability under clear presidential leadership
• Southern Regions: Ongoing strikes requiring enhanced caution despite disarmament commitment
• North Litani: Planned operations may create temporary disruptions prior to February
• International Coordination: Army Chief Washington visit indicating diplomatic support for stability

📊 CURRENT SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Presidential Disarmament Commitment with Implementation Challenges
Governmental Assertiveness: Strong clarity on state monopoly on arms creating authority framework
Regional Support: Saudi Arabia and international partners backing Lebanese state decision-making
Implementation Challenges: Ongoing strikes and Hezbollah refusal creating obstacles

Critical Analysis: President Joseph Aoun’s press conference statement “What you see, not what you hear” regarding army operations south of Litani represents significant governmental assertiveness compared to previous rhetorical periods. The commitment to disarm Hezbollah and implement state monopoly on arms, combined with planned “North Litani step” prior to Army Chief Washington visit, suggests concrete implementation rather than symbolic statements.

Speaker Berri’s characterization of Saudi Foreign Minister meeting as “excellent” with emphasis on Saudi importance of Lebanese state decision-making provides regional diplomatic framework supporting governmental authority rather than non-state actors.

The Army Chief’s upcoming Washington visit (February 3-5) creates international military support framework for Lebanese Armed Forces capacity building, enabling disarmament operations in challenging environments.

Economic functionality demonstrated through depositor law passage (up to $100,000 repayment) and Beirut Port highest activity since financial collapse provides governmental capability evidence and revenue foundation for security operations.

However, implementation faces significant challenges: ongoing Israeli strikes despite presidential “only army” assertion create dangerous operational environment; Hezbollah Secretary-General Qassem’s continued refusal to disarm directly challenges state authority; UNIFIL attacks escalate despite peacekeeping monitoring role; civilian displacement continues from targeting operations.

Long-term Prospects: Presidential clarity creates stronger governmental framework than previous periods, but sustained implementation requires: continued international support through mechanisms like Washington visit; regional diplomatic backing as demonstrated by Saudi engagement; LAF capacity building for challenging operations; Israeli compliance with ceasefire obligations enabling safe disarmament implementation; Hezbollah eventual acceptance of state authority or governmental ability to enforce compliance.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: PRESIDENTIAL COMMITMENT SUPPORT SERVICES

🇱🇧 SUPPORTING STATE AUTHORITY IMPLEMENTATION

CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during Lebanon’s governmental assertiveness period under President Aoun’s clear disarmament commitment while maintaining enhanced vigilance for ongoing implementation challenges.

CURRENT PERIOD SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

Governmental Authority Support:

• Presidential Commitment Security – Professional protection supporting “only army” implementation south of Litani
• Planned Operations Coordination – Security services for “North Litani step” implementation period
• LAF Operational Support – Professional coordination with Lebanese Armed Forces disarmament operations
• International Visit Security – Protection framework for Army Chief Washington visit preparation

Implementation Challenge Response:

• Ongoing Strike Monitoring – Continuous assessment despite presidential commitment creating operational framework
• Civilian Protection – Enhanced security for populations affected by targeting despite disarmament progress
• Displacement Support – Professional services for families fleeing targeted villages
• UNIFIL Coordination – Security cooperation with peacekeepers facing escalating attacks

Economic Recovery Security:

• Port Security Enhancement – Professional protection supporting highest activity recovery
• Banking Sector Security – Protection for depositor law implementation and financial services
• Business Confidence Support – Security enabling operations under improved governmental framework
• Tourism Recovery Services – Professional protection supporting sector improvement prospects

SPECIALIZED GOVERNMENT TRANSITION SERVICES:

Disarmament Implementation Security:

• Professional security during challenging LAF operations in armed group areas
• Enhanced protection for governmental personnel implementing state authority
• Coordination with international support frameworks including Washington visit outcomes
• Security protocols for transitional periods between current state and full implementation

Regional Diplomatic Support:

• Security services for Saudi and regional diplomatic engagement
• Professional protection for governmental decision-making implementation
• Enhanced security during international coordination and capacity building periods
• Diplomatic facility protection during state authority consolidation

Economic Functionality Protection:

• Port security supporting revenue generation and activity recovery
• Banking sector protection during depositor law implementation
• Business operation security enabling confidence improvement
• Tourism facility protection supporting sector recovery prospects

📞 GOVERNMENTAL TRANSITION COORDINATION

PRESIDENTIAL COMMITMENT SUPPORT: +961-3-539900
Professional security supporting state authority implementation and disarmament operations

LAF COORDINATION SECURITY: Protection for Lebanese Armed Forces operations
IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGE RESPONSE: Professional services during ongoing strike environment
ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROTECTION: Security supporting port activity and banking functionality

Specialized Service Centers:

• Governmental Operations Support: Security for presidential commitment implementation
• LAF Coordination Center: Professional services for army disarmament operations
• Economic Recovery Division: Protection supporting port and banking sector functionality
• International Engagement Security: Services for Washington visit and regional diplomatic support

During Lebanon’s governmental assertiveness period under President Aoun’s clear disarmament commitment, CIS Security’s professional services support state authority implementation while maintaining enhanced vigilance for ongoing strikes and implementation challenges affecting civilian populations and economic recovery.

⚠️ GOVERNMENTAL TRANSITION OPERATIONAL NOTICE

PRESIDENTIAL COMMITMENT ALERT: President Joseph Aoun’s statement “What you see, not what you hear” regarding army operations south of Litani, combined with planned “North Litani step” prior to Army Chief Washington visit, creates significant governmental assertiveness requiring professional security support during implementation challenges.

Implementation Framework: Regional diplomatic support (Saudi Arabia emphasizing Lebanese state decisions), international military coordination (Washington visit February 3-5), and economic functionality (depositor law, port recovery) create foundation for sustained implementation despite ongoing obstacles.

Continued Challenges: Ongoing Israeli strikes, Hezbollah refusal to disarm, UNIFIL attacks, and civilian displacement require maintained security protocols and professional protection during transitional implementation period.

Professional Support Commitment: CIS Security provides comprehensive services supporting presidential disarmament commitment implementation while maintaining enhanced protection for civilians affected by ongoing challenges and economic activities benefiting from improved governmental framework.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s governmental assertiveness period under President Aoun’s clear disarmament commitment and planned North Litani operations, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise in supporting state authority implementation and transitional security management. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive services including LAF coordination support, ongoing strike response, economic recovery protection, and governmental operation security. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting presidential commitment implementation while maintaining vigilance for ongoing challenges.

CIS Security Governmental Transition Services:

• Presidential Commitment Support – Professional security for “only army” implementation and state authority consolidation
• LAF Coordination Services – Support for Lebanese Armed Forces disarmament operations and capacity building
• Washington Visit Preparation – Security framework for Army Chief international engagement (February 3-5)
• North Litani Operations – Professional protection during planned “certain step” implementation
• Economic Recovery Security – Port activity protection and banking sector security supporting governmental functionality
• Ongoing Strike Response – Continued monitoring and protection despite improved governmental framework

Why Choose CIS During Governmental Transition: ✓ 35+ Years State Authority Support – Proven security during governmental implementation and transitional periods
✓ Presidential Commitment Coordination – Professional services supporting disarmament and state monopoly implementation
✓ LAF Operational Support – Enhanced security coordination with Lebanese Armed Forces operations
✓ International Engagement Security – Protection for Washington visit and regional diplomatic support frameworks
✓ Economic Functionality Protection – Security enabling port recovery and banking sector operations
✓ Challenge Response Capability – Professional monitoring of ongoing strikes and implementation obstacles

Governmental Transition Support: 📞 Presidential Commitment Coordination: +961-3-539900
💬 LAF Operations Support: Professional security for army disarmament implementation
🌐 Economic Recovery Protection: www.cissecurity.net – Port and banking sector security services
📧 Implementation Challenge Response: Professional monitoring and protection during ongoing obstacles

Serving all Lebanese governorates during President Aoun’s governmental assertiveness period with clear disarmament commitment and planned North Litani operations. CIS Security – Your trusted partner supporting state authority implementation, Lebanese Armed Forces coordination, international engagement frameworks, and economic recovery while maintaining enhanced protection for civilians affected by ongoing implementation challenges and strike operations.