🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Friday , Jan 23 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Friday, January 23, 2026

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 87/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ EXPLOSIVE CONVERGENCE – IRAN PROTESTS, OMAN TALKS, BAALBEK STRIKES

🚨 BREAKING: IRAN PROTESTS HIT 5,002 DEATHS AS DIPLOMATIC TALKS & BAALBEK STRIKES CONVERGE

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – FRIDAY, JANUARY 23, 2026:

IRAN PROTESTS DEATH TOLL: At least 5,002 people have been killed in Iran protests as President Trump says a US “armada” is approaching, marking a dramatic escalation in the mass uprising that began December 28, 2025. The ninth day of protests has seen violent crackdowns across all 31 Iranian provinces, with Trump administration authorizing military pressure.

QUADRILATERAL OMAN TALKS: The United States, Vatican, Israel, and Iran are reportedly discussing Hezbollah disarmament in Oman, according to reports today. The unprecedented four-party talks suggest potential diplomatic breakthrough as regional dynamics shift dramatically with Iranian regime under massive internal pressure.

BAALBEK DRONE STRIKES TODAY: Drone strikes missed a car twice in southwest Baalbek today, marking continued Israeli operations in the Bekaa Valley despite the diplomatic talks. The strikes demonstrate Israel maintaining military pressure even as diplomatic channels open.

PRO-HEZBOLLAH JOURNALISTS SUMMONED: Pro-Hezbollah journalists were summoned over anti-Aoun remarks, demonstrating the Lebanese government’s increasing assertiveness against Hezbollah’s media supporters as President Joseph Aoun consolidates authority.

AOUN-BERRI MEETING: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri met with President Aoun today, with Berri stating afterwards: “Our meetings are always excellent,” suggesting continued coordination between governmental authority and the Shiite political leadership during this critical period.

WEDNESDAY’S ESCALATION: Israel bombed four Syria-Lebanon border crossings on Wednesday, claiming they were used by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons, following earlier attacks that killed at least two people and injured almost 20. President Aoun blasted Israel’s “policy of systematic aggression” directly targeting civilians.

ISRAELI OPERATION PREPARATION: Netanyahu reportedly told his cabinet that Trump gave the green light for a fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, with both Jerusalem and Washington unhappy with Lebanese disarmament efforts, though timing of major assault remains unclear.

IRAN STRIKE SCENARIO MATERIALIZING: The intelligence scenario revealed Sunday (Jan 17) that disarmament postponement was based on expectations of US Iran strike appears to be materializing, with 5,002 deaths in protests and Trump’s “armada” statement suggesting imminent military action.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 83/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Diplomatic/Military Convergence. The capital operates at the nexus of multiple explosive dynamics as reports emerge of quadrilateral talks in Oman involving the US, Vatican, Israel, and Iran discussing Hezbollah’s future, while Iranian protests reach 5,002 deaths creating the regional shift that intelligence predicted would enable comprehensive disarmament.

President Joseph Aoun’s meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri today, with Berri stating “our meetings are always excellent,” suggests coordination during this critical period. The governmental assertiveness in summoning pro-Hezbollah journalists over anti-Aoun remarks demonstrates increasing willingness to confront Hezbollah’s media infrastructure.

The Oman talks represent an extraordinary diplomatic development—the Vatican’s involvement suggests moral authority dimension, while Iran’s participation under domestic crisis pressure indicates potential weakness forcing dialogue. US and Israeli presence creates the pressure framework that intelligence assessments predicted would enable disarmament.

Netanyahu’s reported statement to his cabinet that Trump authorized a fresh offensive against Hezbollah creates parallel military pressure track alongside diplomatic talks. The combination of diplomatic engagement and military threat represents classic pressure tactics—negotiate or face operations.

President Aoun’s blast at Israel’s “policy of systematic aggression” following Wednesday’s attacks provides domestic political cover while navigating impossible demands from all sides. The balancing act between condemning Israeli violations and pursuing disarmament continues.

Economic activities proceed under profound uncertainty as the convergence of Iranian protests (5,002 deaths), diplomatic talks (four-party Oman discussions), and military pressure (Netanyahu’s green light) creates multiple potential trajectories—breakthrough, escalation, or paralysis.

Key Factor: Quadrilateral Oman talks suggesting diplomatic breakthrough possibility while 5,002 Iranian protest deaths materialize the intelligence scenario that disarmament postponement was based upon, creating convergence of diplomatic and military pressure tracks.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 79/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Hope-Fear Balance. The governorate experiences complex emotions as the Oman talks raise hopes for diplomatic resolution while Iranian protests reaching 5,002 deaths and Trump’s “armada” statement create fears of regional war engulfing Lebanon.

Religious and political leaders recognize the unprecedented nature of four-party talks involving the Vatican, suggesting moral authority engagement beyond pure power politics. However, the military pressure track with Netanyahu’s reported green light for operations creates parallel escalation pathway.

Business operations continue with extreme uncertainty about whether current dynamics lead to breakthrough (comprehensive disarmament through weakened Iran accepting terms) or catastrophe (regional war with Lebanon as battlefield).

Infrastructure improvements proceed cautiously as the region continues hosting displaced populations while monitoring whether the intelligence scenario of Iran strike forcing Hezbollah compliance is actually materializing with 5,002 protest deaths and US “armada” approaching.

Key Factor: Oman talks providing diplomatic hope while Iranian crisis and Trump “armada” statement suggesting intelligence scenario materializing, creating uncertain whether outcome is breakthrough or regional conflagration.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Economic Vulnerability. Tripoli and surrounding areas monitor the convergence of diplomatic (Oman talks) and military (Iran crisis, Netanyahu green light) dynamics with awareness that regional war would devastate northern economy.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria face new complications as Israel bombed four Syria-Lebanon border crossings Wednesday, claiming Hezbollah weapons smuggling routes. The strikes demonstrate Israeli willingness to target infrastructure regardless of diplomatic tracks.

Economic conditions show extreme vulnerability to any escalation as the 5,002 Iranian protest deaths and Trump “armada” statement suggest potential imminent US military action that could trigger regional war or force Hezbollah compliance.

The 22 agreements signed with Jordan earlier provide some economic hope, but implementation depends on stability that appears more fragile than ever as multiple explosive dynamics converge simultaneously.

Key Factor: Northern economy vulnerable to regional war from Iran crisis while border crossing strikes demonstrate continued Israeli operations despite diplomatic engagement in Oman talks.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Border Under Multiple Pressures. The Syrian border situation faces new challenges as Israel bombed four Syria-Lebanon crossing points Wednesday, claiming Hezbollah weapons smuggling interdiction.

Cross-border security operations continue but face Israeli interdiction of crossing points, creating economic and humanitarian complications alongside security challenges. The LAF maintains border presence while navigating Israeli operations targeting infrastructure.

The region’s border security becomes even more critical if Iranian crisis triggers regional war or forces Hezbollah into defensive posture requiring supply route protection. The intelligence scenario of Iran strike materializing creates profound border security implications.

Key Factor: Border crossings bombed Wednesday by Israel while Iranian crisis reaching 5,002 deaths and Trump “armada” creates potential for regional war dramatically complicating border security requirements.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – Under Active Attack & Diplomatic Pressure. The valley experiences drone strikes today in southwest Baalbek (missed car twice) while serving as primary focus of disarmament pressures if Oman talks produce results or Iranian crisis forces Hezbollah compliance.

Today’s drone strikes demonstrate Israeli operations continuing despite diplomatic engagement in Oman. The strikes missing their target twice suggests either defensive countermeasures or operational challenges, but continuing Israeli willingness to strike Bekaa regardless of talks.

Agricultural operations disrupted by continued strikes as the valley remains phase four ultimate target if comprehensive disarmament proceeds. The Oman talks involving Iran under 5,002-death protest pressure creates scenario intelligence predicted would enable Bekaa disarmament.

Wednesday’s border crossing strikes targeting Hezbollah supply routes affect Bekaa particularly as the region’s military infrastructure depends on Syrian logistics. Israeli systematic targeting of weapons smuggling routes alongside diplomatic pressure creates comprehensive approach.

International development projects face immediate threats from today’s strikes and uncertain future depending on whether Oman talks produce disarmament breakthrough or military escalation follows Iranian crisis.

Key Factor: Drone strikes today in southwest Baalbek continuing military pressure while Oman four-party talks and Iranian crisis (5,002 deaths) create diplomatic/military convergence potentially enabling phase four Bekaa disarmament.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – Core Area Under Maximum Pressure. This region as Hezbollah stronghold faces existential pressures from today’s Baalbek drone strikes, Oman talks potentially producing disarmament terms, and Iranian crisis (5,002 deaths) weakening primary patron.

Infrastructure faces direct threats from today’s strikes and potential comprehensive operations if Netanyahu exercises reported Trump green light. The region’s fate depends entirely on whether Oman talks produce negotiated solution or Israeli military action forces disarmament.

The Iranian protests reaching 5,002 deaths with Trump “armada” approaching materializes the exact scenario intelligence predicted would force Hezbollah compliance—Iran weakened, unable to support proxies, creating conditions for comprehensive disarmament.

However, precisely this scenario also creates risks of desperate Hezbollah resistance if forced into corner, potentially triggering the civil war warned about earlier. The next days/weeks determine whether transition is “calm” as intelligence predicted or violent as Hezbollah previously threatened.

Key Factor: Core Hezbollah area experiencing today’s drone strikes while Iranian patron crisis (5,002 deaths) and Oman talks create convergence of pressures potentially forcing compliance or triggering desperate resistance.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 75/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Diplomatic Hope. The coastal governorate experiences cautious optimism from Oman talks suggesting possible diplomatic resolution, while fearing that Iranian crisis and Trump “armada” could trigger regional war.

Tourism infrastructure monitoring diplomatic developments with hope that Vatican involvement brings moral authority enabling breakthrough. However, the military pressure track creates parallel escalation risks.

Business operations show slight optimism from possibility of negotiated Hezbollah disarmament through Oman talks, but awareness that 5,002 Iranian deaths and US military pressure could trigger regional conflagration affecting all Lebanese territories.

The region’s Christian populations support state authority and welcome governmental assertiveness (summoning pro-Hezbollah journalists), while hoping diplomatic tracks prevent internal violence.

Key Factor: Oman talks providing diplomatic hope while Iranian crisis creates uncertainty whether outcome is negotiated breakthrough or regional war escalation.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – Ongoing Violations Despite Talks. The south continues experiencing Israeli operations including Wednesday’s attacks killing two and injuring 20, demonstrating that diplomatic engagement doesn’t translate to operational pause.

The Lebanese Armed Forces maintain phase one claims of arms monopoly south of Litani, but Israel continues calling efforts insufficient and conducting strikes. Wednesday’s attacks prompted President Aoun to blast “systematic aggression directly targeting civilians.”

Israel maintains five strategic hilltop positions inside Lebanese territory despite ceasefire requirements. The Oman talks potentially address comprehensive framework including Israeli withdrawal alongside Hezbollah disarmament, but current violations continue.

UNIFIL peacekeepers documented over 10,000 ceasefire violations by Israel, with more than 300 people killed since November 2024 ceasefire. The pattern continues regardless of diplomatic tracks, with Wednesday’s 20+ casualties demonstrating ongoing human costs.

Civilian populations experience continued casualties and fear of comprehensive Israeli operations if Netanyahu exercises reported Trump green light. The south becomes potential battlefield if Oman talks fail and military option proceeds.

Key Factor: Wednesday attacks killed 2, injured 20 continuing pattern of 300+ deaths since ceasefire, while Oman talks address comprehensive framework including withdrawal from 5 occupied positions alongside disarmament.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Reconstruction Amid Escalation Risks. The governorate manages reconstruction while facing potential comprehensive Israeli operations if diplomatic tracks fail and military options proceed following reported Trump green light.

Infrastructure restoration disrupted by Wednesday’s widespread attacks including “series of violent strikes” on multiple southern locations. The civilian population balances reconstruction needs with awareness that escalation could resume full conflict.

The Oman talks create hope for diplomatic framework enabling reconstruction without renewed war, but parallel military pressure track creates profound uncertainty about immediate future.

Key Factor: Reconstruction proceeding amid Wednesday’s violent strikes while Oman talks and Iranian crisis create uncertainty between diplomatic breakthrough or military escalation.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – CONVERGENCE CRISIS

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Combat/Crisis Zones:

1. IRAN – 5,002 killed in protests, Trump “armada” approaching, regime under maximum pressure
2. Beqaa Valley – Baalbek – Drone strikes TODAY, southwest area targeted, missed car twice
3. South Lebanon – 2 killed Wednesday, 20 injured, systematic Israeli operations continuing
4. Syria-Lebanon Border – 4 crossings bombed Wednesday targeting Hezbollah supply routes
5. Five Israeli-Occupied Positions – Maintained inside Lebanon despite ceasefire

Priority Level 2 – Diplomatic/Strategic Pressure: 6. Oman Talks – US, Vatican, Israel, Iran quadrilateral discussions on Hezbollah disarmament 7. Netanyahu Cabinet – Reported Trump green light for fresh offensive against Hezbollah 8. Beirut Government District – Aoun-Berri coordination, journalists summoned over anti-Aoun remarks 9. Areas North of Litani – Phase two ultimate target if Oman talks produce comprehensive terms 10. Palestinian Refugee Camps – Subject to compre