CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – March 13 2026

Friday, March 13, 2026 | Ramadan Day 24

⛔ ACTIVE WAR — DAY 15 OF THE IRAN WAR

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 CATASTROPHIC OVERALL INDEX: 99/100 TREND: ⬆️ MAXIMUM — GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION OF STRIKES INTO ALL OF BEIRUT

⛔ EMERGENCY STATUS PREAMBLE

THIS IS DAY 15 OF THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN. LEBANON IS AN ACTIVE, FULL-SCALE WAR ZONE.

The two days since our last edition (March 11) represent the most catastrophic escalation in Lebanon since the war began. The death toll has risen from 570 to 687+, with more than 1,500 wounded and 820,000+ displaced — a figure now confirmed by Lebanon’s own Disaster Management Office.

In the last 48 hours alone: Israeli strikes massacred 12 displaced civilians sleeping in tents at Ramlet al-Bayda (Beirut’s public beachfront); strikes hit the Lebanese University’s Faculty of Sciences campus, killing two professors including the department head; Netanyahu threatened to send ground forces into Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah personally if the government fails to do so; Israeli Defence Minister Katz issued explicit evacuation orders for all areas south of the Zahrani River (40-45 km from the Israeli border — encompassing Sidon itself);

Hezbollah and Iran jointly launched their largest coordinated barrage yet — approximately 200 rockets and 20 drones; and five Beirut neighbourhoods have now been struck, including the Armenian-populated Nabaa district and Jnah on the seafront. Today, UN Secretary-General António Guterres landed in Beirut in an extraordinary “solidarity visit.” Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — still not seen in public, confirmed wounded — issued his first written statement read by a state TV anchor, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and promising expanded war fronts. Oil prices have risen back above $100/barrel. The IEA has released 400 million barrels of strategic reserves — the largest such release in its history.

Rafic Hariri International Airport remains open. Depart now if you intend to leave.

📅 UPDATED WAR TIMELINE

🚨 ALL BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — FRIDAY MARCH 13, 2026

🔴 #1 — DEATH TOLL 687+; 820,000+ DISPLACED — NEW WAR RECORDS SET

[Lebanese MoPH / Lebanon Disaster Management Office / UNHCR / Al Jazeera — confirmed today]

Lebanon’s death toll has reached 687 people killed since March 2 — including 98 children — with more than 1,500 wounded. The Lebanese Disaster Management Office confirmed more than 820,000 people have been registered as displaced. The World Food Programme’s Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau, visiting Beirut, described the displacement figure as “unique” in the entire context of the regional war, calling the speed of displacement — 800,000 people in a single week — extraordinary. The UNHCR separately confirmed that over 30,000 people have crossed from Lebanon into Syria.

WHO has recorded 23 attacks on healthcare since March 2, resulting in 14 deaths and 26 injuries among medical personnel. A Red Cross paramedic who died of wounds after his ambulance was struck by Israel in Majdal Zoun (Tyre district) was buried in Tyre this week — the first Red Cross paramedic killed in this conflict.

🔴 #2 — RAMLET AL-BAYDA MASSACRE (MARCH 12): 12 KILLED — DISPLACED SLEEPING IN TENTS STRUCK

[Lebanese MoPH / AFP correspondent / Al Jazeera — confirmed]

In the single most symbolically devastating strike since the war began, an Israeli overnight strike on Ramlet al-Bayda — Beirut’s public seafront — killed 12 people and wounded 28 on Thursday. An AFP correspondent at the scene documented blood stains on the pavement and damaged vehicles. The area had become the refuge of last resort for hundreds of displaced families who could not afford Beirut apartments after fleeing southern Lebanon and Dahiyeh — they had erected tents on the public beachfront. Some of those shelters were hit by shrapnel.

Displaced woman Aseel Habbaj: “We saw dead people on the ground.” Her neighbour Dalal al-Sayed had chosen the seafront after fleeing southern Lebanon because, she said, “the last thing we expected was Israel to hit Beirut.” The character of this strike — civilians who had already been displaced once, sheltering in open public space, struck without warning — represents a qualitative escalation in the humanitarian impact of the war on Beirut’s civilian population.

🔴 #3 — LEBANESE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SCIENCES STRUCK — 2 PROFESSORS KILLED

[NNA / NYT / Al Jazeera — confirmed]

An Israeli drone strike on a campus of the Lebanese University — Lebanon’s only public institution of higher learning — in Hadath, near Beirut, killed two academics: the head of the Faculty of Sciences and another professor. The university serves tens of thousands of Lebanese students from across the country, the large majority of whom cannot afford private university fees. No military justification has been provided by the IDF for this strike. The strike on Lebanon’s sole public university strikes directly at the state institution most relied upon by the Lebanese middle and working class. The British government cited the Lebanese University strike specifically in its decision to warn citizens to leave Lebanon.

🔴 #4 — BASHOURA, ZOUKAK EL-BLAT STRUCK (MARCH 12) — FOURTH CENTRAL BEIRUT DISTRICT HIT

[AFP / Al Jazeera / IDF — confirmed]

On Thursday March 12, the Israeli military announced “a wave of strikes targeting Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure across Beirut,” with AFPTV footage showing a large plume of black smoke rising above Bashoura — a busy central neighbourhood adjacent to Beirut’s commercial district and home to many large companies and government institutions. This is the fourth distinct central Beirut neighbourhood struck since March 2 — following Raouche (March 8), Aicha Bakkar (March 10-11), and now Bashoura/Zoukak El-Blat. An Al-Qard al-Hassan branch in Zoukak El-Blat was also struck. Separately, Aramoun — a residential area approximately 10km south of Beirut, outside Hezbollah’s traditional strongholds — was struck killing 5 people and wounding 7, including a child.

🔴 #5 — TODAY: JNAH AND NABAA/BOURJ HAMMOUD STRUCK — ENTIRE BEIRUT NOW A STRIKE ZONE

[MoPH / NNA / AP / Al Jazeera / Armenpress — confirmed today, March 13]

Two entirely new Beirut neighbourhoods were struck today:

Jnah (southwestern Beirut seafront): An Israeli strike hit a car in the coastal neighbourhood of Jnah early Friday, killing one person. Jnah is a predominantly residential coastal area never previously struck in this or the 2024 war.

Nabaa, Bourj Hammoud (northeastern Beirut): An Israeli drone struck a residential apartment building in the Nabaa neighbourhood of the densely populated Bourj Hammoud district — home to a sizable Armenian community. The building was left engulfed in flames. No casualties immediately reported. The IDF said it was targeting a Hezbollah member. Editor-in-Chief of the Beirut-based Aztag Daily, which covers the Armenian community, confirmed no Armenian-Lebanese residents were killed. This is the first time Nabaa/Bourj Hammoud has been struck either in this conflict or during the 2024 war.

The geographic picture as of March 13: Israeli strikes have now hit every major section of Beirut — southern suburbs (Dahiyeh), central west (Raouche, Aicha Bakkar, Bashoura, Zoukak El-Blat), the public seafront (Ramlet al-Bayda), the southwestern coast (Jnah), and now the northeastern suburbs (Nabaa/Bourj Hammoud). There is no longer any neighbourhood of Beirut that can be considered unstruckable.

🔴 #6 — SOUTH LEBANON TODAY: ARKI 9 KILLED (5 CHILDREN); AL-FAWWAR 8 KILLED; AIN EBEL 3 KILLED

[Lebanese MoPH / NNA / Al Jazeera — confirmed today]

Today’s confirmed massacre-level strikes in south Lebanon:

• Arki/Arkey village, near Sidon: Israeli strike on a house killed 9 people including 5 children — four of the children were siblings, per the Arky municipality.
• Al-Fawwar area, Sidon district: Israeli raid killed 8 people and wounded 9.
• Ein Ebel (Christian village): Israeli strike killed 3 men as they were installing a satellite TV dish on a rooftop.
• Barish, Tyre district: 3 people killed in Israeli attack.
• Bar Elias, Bekaa Valley: Israeli attack on an apartment killed 2 people and critically wounded 3 — the attack targeted an Islamic Group official; his two sons were killed.

🔴 #7 — UN SECRETARY-GENERAL GUTERRES LANDS IN BEIRUT — EXTRAORDINARY SOLIDARITY VISIT

[UN SG Office / Middle East Eye / AP — confirmed today]

UN Secretary-General António Guterres landed in Beirut on Friday in what he described as a visit of solidarity with the Lebanese people. Guterres posted on X: “I have just landed in Beirut for a visit of solidarity with the people of Lebanon. They did not choose this war. They were dragged into it. The UN and I will spare no effort in striving for the peaceful future that Lebanon and this region so richly deserve.” This is a highly unusual personal visit to an active war zone by the UN Secretary-General.

The visit signals the UN’s escalating alarm at Lebanon’s humanitarian situation and its desire to apply direct political pressure on all parties. Guterres is expected to meet Lebanese officials including President Aoun and PM Salam. It also puts renewed pressure on the US — which holds UNSC veto power — to engage more seriously with ceasefire proposals. Pope Leo XIV has also been reported by L’Orient Today as visiting Lebanon, bringing what was described as a “message of peace and hope.”

🔴 #8 — NETANYAHU THREATENS GROUND INVASION: “WE WILL DO IT ON THE GROUND”

[AFP / France24 / CP24 — confirmed March 12, still operative today]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued the most direct threat yet of a Lebanese ground invasion in a press conference Thursday. “You are playing with fire,” Netanyahu told Lebanese authorities. “If you do not disarm Hezbollah, it is clear that we will.” When asked how: “On the ground. With ground forces and other things.”

Israeli Defence Minister Katz separately stated he had ordered troops to “prepare for expanding” attacks in Lebanon, and warned Lebanese President Aoun that Lebanon would pay “a very heavy price” if it fails to disarm Hezbollah. Katz said: “If the Lebanese government does not know how to control the territory and prevent Hezbollah from firing toward Israel — we will take the territory and do it ourselves.” With the Golani Brigade already redeployed north (confirmed March 11), and three divisions inside Lebanon, the military prerequisites for a major ground offensive are in place.

🔴 #9 — KATZ: EVACUATION ORDER SOUTH OF ZAHRANI RIVER — SIDON NOW IN THE ZONE

[AFP / Jordan Times / Ya Libnan — confirmed March 12-13]

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz issued evacuation orders for all residents south of the Zahrani River — approximately 40-45 kilometres from the Israeli border. This is a dramatic geographic expansion of the evacuation zone: the Zahrani River effectively encompasses Sidon itself and all Lebanese territory to its south. Sidon, Lebanon’s second city with a pre-war population of approximately 200,000 and a major displacement reception hub, is now explicitly within Israel’s declared military operating zone. This order — if acted upon — would trigger a new mass displacement surge toward Beirut and further north, compounding an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

🔴 #10 — HEZBOLLAH + IRAN JOINT OPERATION: LARGEST BARRAGE OF THE WAR — 200 ROCKETS, 20 DRONES

[IDF / AFP / Manila Times / Al Jazeera — confirmed March 12]

On Wednesday night March 11-12, Hezbollah formally announced a new coordinated operation jointly with the Iranian military — their biggest barrage since the war began. The IDF confirmed approximately 200 rockets and 20 drones were launched at Israel. Hezbollah separately confirmed it struck Israel’s air defence systems near Caesarea — home to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s private residence — with what it described as “sophisticated missiles.” In response, the IDF announced a “wide-scale wave of strikes” on Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, destroying command centres in Beirut (large fireball footage released by IDF). Lebanon’s government summoned the Iranian chargé d’affaires to express its “firm objection” to Iran’s direct military involvement from Lebanese territory.

🔴 #11 — MOJTABA KHAMENEI’S FIRST STATEMENT: HORMUZ STAYS CLOSED; REVENGE; NEW WAR FRONTS THREATENED

[NPR / CNBC / NBC News / Iran International — confirmed March 12-13]

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first public statement on Thursday — read by a state TV anchor while only a still photograph was shown, with no video or audio of Khamenei himself. Key content confirmed across multiple sources:

• Strait of Hormuz closure: The Strait must remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” Iran warned oil could reach $200 per barrel if the war continues.
• US base attacks: “All U.S. military bases in the Middle East should close immediately — those bases will be attacked.”
• Revenge pledge: “Iran will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs. Every member of the nation who is martyred by the enemy becomes an independent case for revenge.”
• New war fronts threatened: “Studies have been conducted regarding the opening of other fronts in which the enemy has little experience and is highly vulnerable. Activating them will take place if the state of war continues.”
• Axis of Resistance: Specifically praised Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi armed groups. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem previously sent Khamenei a letter declaring Hezbollah’s “covenantal commitment” to the Islamic Republic.

Khamenei did not appear in person. Iranian authorities have provided no direct evidence of his condition. Trump said he thinks Khamenei is alive but “damaged.”

🔴 #12 — IEA RELEASES 400 MILLION BARRELS — LARGEST STRATEGIC RESERVE RELEASE IN HISTORY

[IEA / Iran International / CNBC — confirmed]

The International Energy Agency, responding to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, has released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest such release in the agency’s history, dwarfing the 2022 Ukraine war release. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the decision had already had a “strong impact” on markets.

The IEA estimates global supply could fall by 8 million barrels per day in March as Middle East production is curtailed and Hormuz shipping falls to a fraction of normal. Despite the reserve release, oil prices rose back above $100/barrel today following Khamenei’s Hormuz closure statement. TotalEnergies confirmed it will lose 15% of global production due to Middle East shutdowns. Saudi Aramco has warned of “catastrophic consequences” if Hormuz is not reopened. Abu Dhabi’s state oil company was forced to shutter a refinery after a drone attack.

🔴 #13 — ISRAEL DESTROYS ZRARIEH BRIDGE OVER LITANI RIVER — CUTS HEZBOLLAH CROSSING

[Haaretz / IDF — confirmed today]

The IDF confirmed it destroyed the Zrarieh Bridge over the Litani River — described as “a key crossing for Hezbollah operatives.” The IDF statement: “to prevent a threat to Israeli civilians and to stop the continued harm to the residents of Lebanon.” The bridge’s destruction is part of a broader Israeli strategy to degrade Hezbollah’s logistics and resupply lines north of the Litani — the river that was supposed to mark the ceasefire’s security zone. It also severs civilian movement between south Lebanon and the north, further trapping populations already under evacuation orders.

🔴 #14 — AOUN AND SALAM SEND TEAM TO CYPRUS FOR CEASEFIRE TALKS WITH ISRAEL

[Naharnet / L’Orient Today — confirmed March 12]

In the most significant Lebanese diplomatic development of the war, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced on Thursday that they are sending a Lebanese team to Cyprus for possible ceasefire talks with Israel. Lebanon proposed Cyprus as the venue for negotiations.

This is the first time Lebanon has taken a proactive diplomatic step toward direct ceasefire talks. Aoun has been publicly critical of Hezbollah, accusing it of “seeking Lebanon’s collapse through war and chaos” and calling on the Lebanese Armed Forces to seize Hezbollah weapons — a remarkable public statement from a Lebanese president. The Cyprus initiative suggests Lebanon is pursuing a bilateral ceasefire track independent of both the Berri/Hezbollah mechanism and the broader US Barrack plan. Whether Israel will engage remains unconfirmed.

🔴 #15 — HEALTHCARE INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSING — 23 ATTACKS ON HEALTH SINCE MARCH 2; RED CROSS PARAMEDIC KILLED

[WHO / UN OCHA / France24 / AFP — confirmed]

WHO confirmed that since March 2, 23 attacks on healthcare infrastructure have occurred, resulting in 14 deaths and 26 injuries among medical personnel. A Red Cross paramedic who was wounded when his ambulance was struck by Israel in Majdal Zoun (Tyre district) died of his wounds this week — the first Red Cross worker killed in this conflict. His funeral in Tyre was attended by mourners in Red Cross uniform.

Government shelter capacity has reached 90% full across Lebanon. UN OCHA confirms that “nearly the entire population of people living in areas south of the Litani River, parts of Baalbek governorate and the Bekaa Valley, and large sections of Beirut’s southern suburbs, are now caught up in hostilities.” Displaced people with chronic illnesses cannot access the medication and treatment they need. The humanitarian system is approaching total collapse.

🔴 #16 — UK WARNS CITIZENS TO LEAVE LEBANON; ACCUSES RUSSIA OF HELPING IRAN HIJACK GLOBAL ECONOMY

[BBC / Reuters / Euronews — confirmed today]

The British government issued a formal warning to its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately unless their presence was “essential” — adding: “If people decide to stay, we cannot guarantee we will be able to help you.” Separately, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, during a visit to Saudi Arabia, accused Russia of working with Iran to “support each other and try to benefit together from attempting to hijack the global economy.”

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called Thursday for an end to Israeli bombing of Lebanon “before it collapses.” A NATO air defence asset intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile in Turkish airspace — the third such intercept in Turkey during the war. Four US KC-135 refueling aircraft crew members were confirmed killed in a crash in western Iraq (not attributed to hostile fire, per CENTCOM).

🔴 #17 — TEHRAN STRUCK DURING QUDS DAY RALLIES — EXPLOSION AT FERDOWSI SQUARE

[AP / Euronews / Tasnim — confirmed today]

A large explosion struck Ferdowsi Square in central Tehran on Friday, during annual Quds Day demonstrations in solidarity with Palestinians. Videos showed a plume of smoke rising as demonstrators shouted slogans. Iran’s hardline judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehi was giving a TV interview nearby when the strike hit — his bodyguards encircled him, and he raised his fist saying Iran “under this rain of missiles will never withdraw.” The IDF separately confirmed launching a new “extensive wave of strikes” on Tehran, targeting ballistic missile launchers, air-defence systems, and weapons-production sites across western and central Iran — hitting over 200 targets in the preceding 24 hours.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MARCH 13, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ MAXIMUM — ALL OF BEIRUT NOW A STRIKE ZONE

Beirut has crossed a catastrophic threshold. As of today, the following distinct Beirut neighbourhoods have been struck:

Every direction of Beirut has now been struck. The IDF has additionally issued an evacuation warning today for Bashoura in central Beirut ahead of further strikes. 90% of government shelters are full. Displaced families who fled south Lebanon are now being struck in the areas they fled to.

The Guterres visit today adds political weight to ceasefire pressure, but no ceasefire mechanism is yet operational. The Cyprus talks initiative (Aoun/Salam) is the most promising new diplomatic development.

THERE IS NO SAFE NEIGHBOURHOOD IN BEIRUT.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 89/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ MAXIMUM DISPLACEMENT + ARAMOUN STRUCK

Mount Lebanon is absorbing the heaviest displacement surge in Lebanon’s history. Aramoun — a residential area approximately 10km south of Beirut, in Aley district — was struck Thursday killing 5 and wounding 7. This is outside Hezbollah’s traditional operating zones and signals that the IDF’s geographic reach now covers Mount Lebanon’s southern approaches. The Zahrani River evacuation zone order effectively pushes all of Sidon’s displaced population northward — adding hundreds of thousands more to an already overwhelmed Mount Lebanon.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 84/100 🔴 | Trend: ELEVATED — DISPLACEMENT SURGE CONTINUING

Tripoli confirmed struck in previous days. City receiving massive displacement surge from Sidon, Tyre, and the south. Collective shelters at 90%+ capacity nationally — Tripoli’s are overwhelmed. The Zahrani evacuation order will push a further major displacement wave northward through Tripoli.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 85/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

No new direct strikes confirmed. Displacement flows continuing northward. Lebanon-Syria border tension continuing following Hezbollah cross-border shelling into Syria earlier in the week. IDF presence on Mount Hermon overlooking eastern approaches.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: 🚨 MAXIMUM — BAR ELIAS STRUCK TODAY; MOUNT HERMON IDF GROUND PRESENCE

Bar Elias in the Bekaa was struck today — 2 killed, 3 critically wounded. Bekaa Valley towns and villages continue to be targeted. IDF forces on Mount Hermon overlook the Damascus-Beirut highway. Qsarnaba and Douris were struck in the past 48 hours with prior evacuation warnings. The Zahrani order does not directly cover Bekaa, but IDF operational expansion toward Zahrani and beyond signals continued escalation eastward.

DO NOT ENTER THE BEKAA VALLEY. EVACUATION ORDERS ACTIVE.

🏛️ BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 98/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: 🚨 MAXIMUM DANGER — CONTINUING STRIKES

Baalbek-Hermel remains at maximum danger. Ongoing strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure. IDF forces on Mount Hermon overlook the Hermel corridor — Hezbollah’s primary overland supply route from Iran via Syria. The Zrarieh Bridge destruction today is part of a pattern of degrading all Hezbollah logistics infrastructure.

DO NOT TRAVEL TO BAALBEK-HERMEL.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON (ALL)

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | Status: TOTAL WAR ZONE — DO NOT ENTER OR REMAIN

South Lebanon is a total combined-arms combat zone. Key confirmed strikes today:

• Arki/Arkey (near Sidon): 9 killed including 5 children (4 siblings) — house struck
• Al-Fawwar (Sidon district): 8 killed, 9 wounded
• Ain Ebel (Christian village): 3 men killed installing a satellite dish on a rooftop
• Barish (Tyre district): 3 killed
• Zrarieh Bridge (Litani River): Destroyed by IDF today — key Hezbollah crossing severed
• UNIFIL: Continues to shelter in hardened positions — operations suspended

The Zahrani River evacuation order now encompasses Sidon and everything south. IDF three divisions operating, Golani Brigade reinforcing. Netanyahu has threatened a ground offensive.

DO NOT ENTER OR REMAIN ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE LITANI RIVER OR IN THE SIDON AREA.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | Status: MAXIMUM DANGER — ACTIVE MULTI-FRONT COMBAT

Nabatieh governorate is under simultaneous aerial bombardment, drone strikes, and ground combat. All three districts — Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, Nabatieh — are active combat zones. IDF three divisions plus Golani Brigade are now operating. With Sidon (Zahrani evacuation order) encompassed in the danger zone, the entire southern governorate structure is effectively uninhabitable.

DO NOT ENTER NABATIEH GOVERNORATE.

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — MARCH 13, 2026

🔥 ACTIVE THREAT ZONES TODAY

⚠️ DIPLOMATIC STATUS — MARCH 13

Five simultaneous tracks — none yet producing a ceasefire:

1. Cyprus Talks (Lebanon-Israel): Lebanon sending a team to Cyprus for ceasefire talks with Israel. Proposed by Aoun/Salam on March 12. Most significant new diplomatic initiative from Lebanon. Israeli response unconfirmed.
2. US Barrack Plan: Comprehensive Lebanon-Syria-Israel peace plan. Still in early stage. Witkoff/Kushner expected to visit Israel next week (week of March 16). No ceasefire timeline.
3. Berri Mechanism: Five-party Cessation of Hostilities committee proposal. Hezbollah’s preferred format. No progress.
4. UN SG Guterres Visit to Beirut (TODAY): Extraordinary solidarity visit. Expected to meet Aoun, Salam. Adds political and moral pressure. No direct leverage over US/Israel.
5. Russia Mediation: Kremlin in “constant contact” with Iran. Signalled readiness to contribute to peace. Not yet a formal track.

Assessment: The Cyprus initiative is genuinely new and represents Lebanon’s most assertive diplomatic move since the war began. However, Israel has not confirmed it will engage. Netanyahu’s “on the ground” threat and Katz’s expanding evacuation orders signal that Israel’s military posture is still escalatory. The Guterres visit raises the UN’s profile but cannot compel action. No ceasefire is imminent. The Mojtaba Khamenei statement — Hormuz closed, new fronts threatened — is maximally escalatory. The war is in its most dangerous phase.

📊 LEBANON WAR DASHBOARD — MARCH 13, 2026

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — MARCH 13, 2026

🚨 LIFE-SAFETY PRIORITIES — ACT NOW:

ALL BEIRUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS: Every direction of Beirut has now been struck. Jnah and Nabaa were struck for the first time today. An IDF evacuation warning has been issued for Bashoura. Ramlet al-Bayda was struck killing 12 displaced people sleeping in tents. There is no neighbourhood of Beirut that can be declared safe. Assess your building for any profile that would attract IDF targeting. The primary IDF criteria appear to be: Hezbollah financial institution proximity, IRGC-linked guests, and Hezbollah member residency.

SIDON AND ALL AREAS SOUTH OF ZAHRANI RIVER: Israel has issued a formal evacuation order for all territory south of the Zahrani River — this now explicitly encompasses Sidon and all areas south. Do not remain. Move north of Sidon, toward Beirut’s northern districts, Jounieh, Jbeil, or Tripoli.

SOUTH LEBANON (LITANI AND SOUTH): Total active war zone. Do not approach. Do not attempt to return. Ground combat involving three IDF divisions and Golani Brigade. Netanyahu threatening full-scale ground invasion.

BEKAA VALLEY AND BAALBEK-HERMEL: Evacuation orders active. Bar Elias struck today. Baalbek-Hermel under ongoing bombing campaign. Do not remain.

MOUNT LEBANON (SOUTHERN APPROACHES): Aramoun struck. The Zahrani evacuation order will push hundreds of thousands more displaced northward through Mount Lebanon in coming hours/days.

FOREIGN NATIONALS: UK formally warns citizens to leave immediately. US Embassy emergency alerts remain in effect. Call State Department: +1-202-501-4444. Act today. Middle East Airlines still operating from Rafic Hariri Airport.

🚗 TRAVEL STATUS — MARCH 13, 2026

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — FULL WAR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

ACTIVE WAR SERVICES — MARCH 13, 2026:

🚨 PRIORITY 1: EVACUATION COORDINATION Emergency extraction from all of Beirut (all neighbourhoods now at risk), south of Zahrani River, Nabatieh, South Lebanon, Dahiyeh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel. Real-time road condition monitoring — Zrarieh Bridge over Litani River destroyed today, affecting southern crossing routes. Safe passage to airport zone and north. International evacuation liaison for foreign nationals and dual citizens.

🏥 SHELTER AND BUILDING SECURITY Full Beirut building profile assessment now essential — IDF is striking across all districts including areas never previously struck. Hezbollah-linked financial institutions (Al-Qard al-Hassan branches), IRGC-linked residents, and Hezbollah member presence are primary targeting criteria. Safe-house identification in northern areas. Hotel guest profile review.

📡 REAL-TIME STRIKE INTELLIGENCE Continuous monitoring of all Lebanese governorates. Today’s strike map: Jnah, Nabaa/Bourj Hammoud, Arki, al-Fawwar, Ain Ebel, Barish, Bar Elias, Zrarieh Bridge. Ongoing Dahiyeh and southern Lebanon tracking. IDF Bashoura evacuation warning monitoring.

⚖️ LEGAL DOCUMENTATION White phosphorus documentation (Yohmor). War crimes evidence preservation. Red Cross ambulance/paramedic killing documentation (Majdal Zoun). Lebanese University strike documentation. Forced displacement legal record compilation.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — MARCH 13, 2026

CIS Security 24/7 Emergency Line: +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 Civil Defence: 125 Internal Security Forces: 112 Middle East Airlines Departures: MEA — flights operating — depart today

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — MARCH 13, 2026

This is the most dangerous day in Lebanon since the war began. Since our March 11 edition (48 hours ago):

• Death toll rose from 570 to 687 — a 21% increase in two days
• 12 displaced people sleeping in tents at Ramlet al-Bayda were massacred
• Lebanon’s only public university was struck — two professors killed
• 7 distinct Beirut neighbourhoods have now been struck — the entire city
• Sidon is now inside Israel’s declared evacuation zone (Zahrani River order)
• Netanyahu explicitly threatened a ground invasion
• Hezbollah and Iran launched their biggest joint barrage of the war
• Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement: Hormuz stays closed; new war fronts threatened
• The IEA released the largest strategic oil reserve in its history — yet prices rose back above $100/barrel
• The UN Secretary-General landed in Beirut in an extraordinary solidarity visit
• 820,000 people are now displaced — more than one in five Lebanese

CIS Security’s assessment: Lebanon has entered the phase of total urban war. The geography of strikes now covers every major population centre from Nabatieh to Bourj Hammoud. No neighbourhood of Beirut is unstruckable. Netanyahu’s ground invasion threat — backed by the Golani Brigade deployment, three existing divisions, Zahrani evacuation order, and Litani bridge destruction — represents an operational posture that is days, not weeks, from execution if diplomatic tracks fail. The Cyprus talks represent the only genuinely new ceasefire initiative with state-level authority. The Guterres visit will add pressure but cannot compel action. Every client must treat the next 24-72 hours as the most dangerous window of the war. The only safe action today is departure via Rafic Hariri Airport.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Friday, March 13, 2026 | Ramadan Day 24 | ACTIVE WAR — DAY 15

Sources: Al Jazeera (March 13 — multiple articles and liveblog); Haaretz (March 13 liveblog); AFP (March 12-13 — multiple dispatches); AP/Hussein Malla (March 13 photography); France24 (March 12-13); CP24/AFP (March 12-13); Ya Libnan (March 13); Jordan Times (March 13); Manila Times (March 13); Euronews (March 13 liveblog); NPR (March 12 — Khamenei statement); CNBC (March 12 — Hormuz/Khamenei); NBC News (March 12-13 — Khamenei); Iran International (March 13 — Khamenei full statement); Middle East Eye (March 13 — Guterres); Armenpress (March 13 — Bourj Hammoud); Naharnet (March 12-13); NNA/Lebanon National News Agency; L’Orient Today (March 13 — Pope, Cyprus); FDD Analysis (March 11); Wikipedia: 2026 Lebanon War (March 13 revision); WHO/UN OCHA; UNHCR; WFP/Carl Skau; Security Council Report; UN Press Briefing Office.

All casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health and Lebanon Disaster Management Office. All displacement figures from UNHCR/Lebanon Disaster Management Office. All strike data verified from named news organisations with named correspondents or photographic/visual documentation.

Index compiled and updated: Friday, March 13, 2026 — compiled from all sources current as of mid-afternoon Beirut time.