CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – March 25 2026

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

⛔ ACTIVE WAR — DAY 26 OF THE IRAN WAR

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 CATASTROPHIC OVERALL INDEX: 99/100 TREND: ⬆️ MAXIMUM — WAR “OUT OF CONTROL” (UN); ISRAEL ANNOUNCES LITANI OCCUPATION; IRAN REJECTS US PEACE PLAN; LEBANESE MEDIA BANNED FROM CALLING HEZBOLLAH “RESISTANCE”

⛔ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — MARCH 25, 2026

Day 26 of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The Lebanon front is intensifying, not abating.

Five developments have transformed the situation since our March 21 Eid edition:

1. ISRAEL FORMALLY ANNOUNCES PERMANENT OCCUPATION OF SOUTH LEBANON TO THE LITANI RIVER. Defence Minister Katz confirmed Tuesday that the IDF will seize and permanently control all territory south of the Litani — roughly 10% of Lebanon’s landmass. Finance Minister Smotrich calls this “the new Israeli border.” HRW has documented this as a potential war crime — forced displacement of Shi’ite populations permanently, “not until Hezbollah disarms” but until “Israel’s northern residents’ security is guaranteed” — an indefinite and self-defined threshold.

2. LEBANON HAS EXPELLED IRAN’S AMBASSADOR — the most dramatic Lebanese diplomatic act in decades. Iran’s ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani declared persona non grata, ordered to leave by Sunday March 29. Lebanon has also cancelled visa-free travel for Iranian citizens, expelled all IRGC-linked individuals, recalled its own ambassador from Tehran, and banned media from calling Hezbollah “the resistance.” Lebanon is de facto breaking from Iran and Hezbollah — an extraordinary geopolitical rupture.

3. IRAN REJECTED THE US 15-POINT PEACE PLAN and submitted a counter-proposal with 5 conditions — including ending “assassinations of leaders” and compensation for destruction. Iran’s FM says Tehran will fight on “on its own terms.” No ceasefire for Lebanon is in sight.

4. UN SECRETARY-GENERAL GUTERRES: WAR IS “TOTALLY OUT OF CONTROL” — appointed veteran French diplomat Jean Arnault as his personal Middle East envoy. Guterres: “The Gaza model must not be replicated in Lebanon.” Israel has destroyed five bridges over the Litani and is demolishing homes in border villages “in accordance with the Beit Hanoun and Rafah models in Gaza” — per IDF’s own statement.

5. DEATH TOLL: 1,072+ KILLED; 2,966+ WOUNDED; 1.2 MILLION DISPLACED — the UN confirms 130,000+ in collective shelters, 46,000 of them children. A 3-year-old girl was killed in Bchamoun, southeast of Beirut, in a strike that came without warning outside Hezbollah’s established zone.

🚨 ALL BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — WEDNESDAY MARCH 25, 2026

🔴 #1 — ISRAEL FORMALLY ANNOUNCES LITANI OCCUPATION — “10% OF LEBANON” — PERMANENT BUFFER ZONE

[Reuters / Jerusalem Post / Middle East Eye — confirmed March 24-25]

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz made the most explicit territorial statement of the war on Tuesday: Israel will permanently occupy all of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, creating a “defensive buffer” zone equivalent to nearly 10% of Lebanon’s entire territory. Speaking alongside the military chief of staff, Katz said: “The principle is clear: where there is terror and missiles, there will be no homes and no residents, and the IDF will be inside.” He confirmed Israeli forces would “control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani.”

This comes one day after Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told the Knesset: “The Litani must be our new border with the state of Lebanon” — comparing it to Israel’s “Yellow Line” in Gaza and the Mount Hermon buffer zone in Syria. Smotrich: “The current war in Lebanon must end with a radical change, beyond the vanquishing of the terror group Hezbollah.”

Netanyahu confirmed Tuesday that Israel’s forces were “expanding a buffer zone” and said: “We have created a genuine security zone preventing any infiltration toward the Galilee and the northern border. We are expanding this zone to push the threat from anti-tank missiles further away and to establish a broader buffer zone.”

Five Litani River bridges have been destroyed since March 13. On March 22, Katz confirmed Netanyahu and he had “ordered the acceleration of the demolition of Lebanese houses in the border villages — in accordance with the Beit Hanoun and Rafah models in Gaza.”

Senior Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah responded: “We have no choice but to confront this aggression and cling to the land. Any Israeli occupation south of the Litani would be an existential threat to the Lebanese state.”

HRW assessment: In a March 23 statement, Human Rights Watch said Israeli officials’ statements “signal stepped-up atrocities in Lebanon” and warned that the permanent displacement of Shi’ite civilians constitutes a potential war crime — forced displacement on a religious-sectarian basis.

🔴 #2 — LEBANON EXPELS IRAN’S AMBASSADOR — PERSONA NON GRATA — MUST LEAVE BY MARCH 29

[Washington Times / Reuters / AFP / Al Jazeera — confirmed March 24-25]

In the most dramatic Lebanese diplomatic act in decades, Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry declared Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani persona non grata on Tuesday and ordered him to leave Lebanese territory by Sunday, March 29. Lebanon simultaneously recalled its own ambassador to Iran Ahmed Sweidan for “consultations.” The Foreign Ministry cited Tehran’s “violation of diplomatic norms and established practices” — specifically referencing IRGC officers directing Hezbollah operations on Lebanese soil.

PM Salam confirmed publicly that the IRGC is “present and unfortunately managing military operations in Lebanon” with officers using “fake passports” who “entered the country illegally.” He stated on Saudi Al-Hadath TV: “This war was imposed on Lebanon.” Salam added that Lebanese PM Salam also stated that the IRGC launched drones from Lebanon toward Cyprus.

Accompanying measures already in place:

• Visa-free travel for Iranian citizens cancelled
• All individuals with IRGC ties ordered expelled from Lebanon
• More than 150 Iranian nationals — including diplomats — have already left Lebanon following Lebanese legal actions
• Lebanon’s Information Minister Paul Morkos ordered all TV, radio, and national news agency to stop using the word “resistance” in connection with Hezbollah — a profound symbolic rupture

Hezbollah’s reaction: Described the expulsion as a “national and strategic sin.” Called it “reckless and condemned.” Demanded the government “immediately reverse” the decision. A Hezbollah source told AFP: “The foreign minister must retract it, and we will ask the Iranian ambassador to remain in Beirut and consider the decision null and void.” Mahmoud Qamati (Hezbollah deputy political council head) compared Lebanon’s government to France’s World War II Vichy government — a remark for which he was widely condemned.

Israel’s reaction: Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called it “a justified and necessary step” and urged further action against Hezbollah.

Lebanon has now become the fourth country to expel Iranian diplomats since the war began — after Saudi Arabia (expelled five Iranian defence officials on March 21), Qatar (expelled Iranian military diplomats post-Ras Laffan strike), and Kuwait.

🔴 #3 — IRAN REJECTS US 15-POINT PEACE PLAN; SUBMITS 5-CONDITION COUNTER-PROPOSAL

[France 24 / Times of Israel — confirmed today, 2 hours ago]

Iran has rejected the United States’ 15-point peace proposal to end the Middle East war. Iran’s state television reported a “senior official” confirmed the rejection. Iran submitted a counter-proposal with five conditions:

1. End to “assassinations” of Iran’s leaders
2. Compensation for destruction caused by US-Israeli strikes
3. End to all strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure
4. Guarantee of Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear development
5. Immediate halt to all US-Israeli military operations

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated: “We seek an end to the war on our own terms, of course, and in a way that it will not be repeated here again.” He added Iran did not plan to negotiate directly with the United States and “intended to keep fighting.”

For Lebanon: The rejection of the US peace plan means the Iran war — the root cause of the Lebanon front — continues with no ceasefire horizon. Lebanon’s security situation is directly held hostage to Iran-US negotiations that have now stalled. Crucially, as NPR’s Lauren Frayer confirmed today from Beirut: “It is unclear if a ceasefire in Lebanon would be part of any agreement on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran” — meaning even a US-Iran ceasefire might not stop Israel’s Lebanon operations.

🔴 #4 — UN CHIEF: WAR “TOTALLY OUT OF CONTROL”; “GAZA MODEL MUST NOT BE REPLICATED IN LEBANON”; NAMES NEW ENVOY

[UN News / France 24 — published 3 hours ago today]

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned today that the conflict is “totally out of control” and “the world is staring down the barrel of a wider war.” Speaking outside the Security Council: “The Gaza model must not be replicated in Lebanon.” Guterres called on Hezbollah to stop launching attacks at Israel and called for an end to Israeli military operations in Lebanon which “are hitting civilians the hardest.”

Guterres named veteran French diplomat Jean Arnault as his personal envoy on the conflict in the Middle East — the first dedicated Middle East envoy since the current war began. Arnault’s appointment is seen as a direct parallel to the diplomatic effort that produced the November 2024 ceasefire.

Pentagon: US troops are heading to the region — confirmed by the Pentagon today. This is a reinforcement of US regional military posture amid Iran’s continued resistance to the peace plan.

Iran on Strait of Hormuz: Iran has told the UN’s International Maritime Organization that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to “non-hostile” ships not associated with the US and Israel — a partial de-escalation signal on Hormuz while the broader war continues.

🔴 #5 — BCHAMOUN STRIKE KILLS 3 INCLUDING 3-YEAR-OLD GIRL — “NIGHT OF TERROR” IN BEIRUT

[Al Jazeera / Reuters / New Arab — confirmed March 24]

An Israeli strike without warning hit an apartment in Bchamoun, a mountainous area southeast of Beirut — approximately 10km from the capital — killing three people including a 3-year-old girl and wounding five others. The blast tore open walls and scorched an entire floor of the residential building. Bchamoun is outside Hezbollah’s established areas of influence. No Israeli comment on the target.

Separately, overnight strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs hit seven areas in a single night (March 24): Bir al-Abed, al-Ruwais outskirts of al-Manshiyya, Haret Hreik, Sayyed Hadi Nasrallah Highway, Saint Therese, Burj al-Barajneh, and al-Kafaat. Residents described it as a “night of terror.”

Israel separately issued a new evacuation threat for Burj Shemali in the south — adding yet another community to the list of ordered evacuations.

A Lebanese Army interceptor missile shot down a ballistic missile over Keserwan launched from Iran — confirmed by Wikipedia’s live war update — the first confirmed interception over central-north Lebanon.

🔴 #6 — HEZBOLLAH CHIEF QASSEM: “NO TALKS WITH ISRAEL UNDER FIRE — AMOUNTS TO SURRENDER”

[Al Jazeera — published 2 hours ago today]

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem stated today that negotiating with Israel “under fire amounts to imposing surrender” on Lebanon and urged “unity” against both Israel and what he called the Lebanese government’s “capitulation.” This statement directly counters Lebanon’s diplomatic track — the government is preparing a delegation for talks; Hezbollah is calling those talks surrender. The rift between Beirut and Hezbollah is now total and public.

🔴 #7 — DEATH TOLL: 1,072+ KILLED; 2,966+ WOUNDED; 1.2 MILLION DISPLACED; 46,000 CHILDREN IN SHELTERS

[Al Jazeera / Reuters / UNHCR / UN — confirmed March 24-25]

Official confirmed figures as of today:

• 1,072 killed — including 120+ children, 80+ women, 40+ healthcare workers
• 2,966 wounded
• 1.2 million displaced (confirmed UN, today) — one in five Lebanese
• 130,000+ in collective shelters — 46,000 of them children — shelters already at full capacity
• Five Litani River bridges destroyed — cutting off south Lebanon road access
• Israel has struck fuel stations, homes, and civilian infrastructure in Tyre, Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil and Marjeyoun, per New Arab reporting today

This means the death toll has risen from 1,001 (March 19) to 1,072 in the last 6 days — roughly 10+ killed per day. The 3-year-old killed in Bchamoun is the latest civilian death that has drawn international condemnation.

🔴 #8 — SPAIN’S PM: “ISRAEL WILL INFLICT ON LEBANON THE SAME DESTRUCTION AS GAZA”

[Al Jazeera — published 11 hours ago today]

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez warned today that “Israel will inflict on Lebanon the same destruction as in Gaza” — one of the harshest condemnations from a European leader. Spain has been one of the most outspoken EU members opposing the Lebanon operation. France, Canada, Germany, Italy and the UK have jointly expressed being “gravely concerned” and called for de-escalation. Turkey called the ground operation “genocidal.” India called for the protection of UNIFIL peacekeepers.

🔴 #9 — ISRAELI STRIKE NEAR ROMAN RUINS IN TYRE — UNESCO HERITAGE SITE AT RISK

[Al Jazeera — published 1 day ago]

Smoke was seen rising close to the Roman ruins in Tyre — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — after an Israeli strike hit a building nearby. Tyre’s historic ruins are among the most significant archaeological sites in the Mediterranean world. Their proximity to Israeli strikes raises serious concerns about irreversible cultural heritage destruction.

🔴 #10 — HEZBOLLAH VICHY COMPARISON; “RESISTANCE” WORD BANNED; 150 IRANIANS LEAVE; SALAM ON AL-HADATH

[Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War / Al Jazeera / UNN — confirmed March 23-25]

Lebanon’s political and cultural rupture with Hezbollah and Iran is accelerating at a remarkable pace:

• Information Minister Paul Morkos has ordered all media — TV, radio, national news agency NNA — to stop using the word “resistance” to describe Hezbollah. This is a profound linguistic and political act — for decades “the resistance” has been Hezbollah’s identity in Lebanese discourse
• 150+ Iranian nationals have left Lebanon following legal actions, including diplomats
• PM Salam told Al-Hadath TV on March 22 that the IRGC is directing Hezbollah, officers have fake passports, and “this war was imposed on Lebanon”
• Hezbollah’s Qamati compared Lebanon’s government to Vichy France — widely condemned in Lebanon
• President Aoun said the war “could have been avoided” if Israel had withdrawn and honoured the 2024 ceasefire deal
• Aoun said: “no one expected that the country would once again become the arena for the wars of others”

🔴 #11 — ISRAEL ALSO PRESSING SYRIA TO SEND TROOPS AGAINST HEZBOLLAH — SYRIA REFUSED

[Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War — confirmed]

The US pressured Syria to militarily intervene in Lebanon — sending its troops to strike Hezbollah positions alongside the IDF — in order to further weaken Hezbollah. The Syrian government refused on the same day Katz declared the ground operation. This is an extraordinary diplomatic episode: the US asking Syria’s new post-Assad government to join Israel in striking Lebanese territory. Syria’s refusal demonstrates the limits of the new Damascus government’s alignment with Washington’s regional strategy.

🔴 #12 — HRW: ISRAEL’S FORCED DISPLACEMENT OF CIVILIANS IN LEBANON IS A “POSSIBLE WAR CRIME”

[Human Rights Watch — published today March 25, 2026]

Human Rights Watch published two major reports today and yesterday:

Report 1 (March 25): “Israel’s Displacement of Civilians in Lebanon is a Possible War Crime” — Israel’s evacuation orders now cover approximately 15% of Lebanese territory and more than 1.2 million people. HRW documents that Israel’s displacement mirrors “the same tactics deployed in Lebanon as in the occupied Palestinian territory.” Katz’s statement that Shi’ite residents “will not return to their homes south of the Litani area until the safety of Israel’s northern residents is guaranteed” constitutes displacement “based on their religion” — prohibited under international law.

Report 2 (March 24): “Israeli Officials Signal Stepped-Up Atrocities in Lebanon” — Katz and Netanyahu ordered “the acceleration of the demolition of Lebanese houses in the border villages — in accordance with the Beit Hanoun and Rafah models in Gaza.” HRW states: “For over two years, Israel’s allies and European states that purport to support and uphold human rights have buried their heads in the sand as atrocities continue.”

🌡️ GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MARCH 25, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Status: Active War — “Night of Terror” — Bchamoun Strike

Beirut experienced its most intense overnight assault since March 2 in the night of March 23-24. Seven distinct areas of Dahiyeh were struck in one night. The Bchamoun strike — killing a 3-year-old girl 10km southeast of the capital with no warning and no declared target — represents the continued geographic expansion of Israeli operations. A Lebanese Army interceptor shot down an Iranian ballistic missile over Keserwan — the first confirmed interception over central-north Lebanon, signalling that Iranian missile trajectories are now passing over Beirut itself.

The government’s rupture with Hezbollah is now total: media banned from calling it “the resistance,” ambassador expelled, IRGC-linked individuals being removed, and PM Salam publicly identifying the IRGC as running the war. This unprecedented government posture has not stopped Israeli bombing — and Hezbollah’s Qassem today called the government’s diplomatic approach “surrender.” The political paralysis between a government that wants talks and a Hezbollah that demands resistance is the defining domestic dynamic.

Lebanon’s delegation for direct peace talks — 3 of 6 members named (Karam, Issa, Bou Nassar) — remains incomplete as Berri refuses to name a Shi’ite representative. Iran’s rejection of the US peace plan removes the ceasefire horizon.

Lebanon is diplomatically the most isolated it has been in years — abandoned by Iran, condemned by Israel, without a US advocate, and with UN diplomacy just beginning.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 89/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ ESCALATING — BCHAMOUN STRUCK; KESERWAN MISSILE INTERCEPTION

The Bchamoun strike and the Keserwan missile interception — both this week — confirm that Mount Lebanon is no longer a buffer zone. The Iranian ballistic missile intercepted over Keserwan was heading toward a target further south or west; its trajectory passed directly over Mount Lebanon’s populated coastal strip.

The 1.2 million displaced are concentrated primarily in Mount Lebanon coastal communities, still arriving in surge waves as the Litani zone and Nabatieh are cleared by Israeli operations.

HRW’s forced displacement report, published today, raises a direct question for Mount Lebanon host communities: if displaced Shi’ite populations cannot legally return south of the Litani — per Katz’s statement — they will be permanently housed in Mount Lebanon communities. This demographic transformation is already generating the sectarian friction CNN documented last week.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 84/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

North Lebanon continues as primary final-destination displacement zone. Collective shelters at full capacity per UN confirmation today (130,000+ in shelters nationwide, 46,000 children). Tripoli’s food and water infrastructure is severely strained. Iran’s rejection of the peace plan extends the war’s timeline and the displacement period indefinitely.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 85/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Syria border dynamics remain complex. Lebanese Army confirmed intercepting missiles near the northern coast. Iran’s Hormuz statement — open to “non-hostile” ships — has reduced fears of total Strait closure but oil remains near $120/barrel, devastating Lebanon’s import costs. The Joussieh crossing displacement flows continue.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Status: Active — Ground Advance Approach; Threatening Calls

The Israeli ground advance through Khiam toward the Bekaa supply corridor continues. Israel destroyed the Dallafa Bridge in southern Lebanon, accusing Hezbollah of using it to send fighters and weapons. Residents of Machghara, Sahmar, and other Bekaa Valley communities are still receiving threatening phone calls from foreign numbers — the pre-strike psychological operations that CIS Security has documented as reliably preceding IDF strikes. Israel’s stated intent to control “all of south Lebanon to the Litani” means the entire western Bekaa edge is now within the declared occupation zone. Bekaa Valley residents south of the Litani must leave immediately.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 98/100 🔴🔴 | Status: Maximum Danger — Active Strikes; Isolation

Baalbek-Hermel continues to be struck. Neighbouring Baalbek was struck March 23 (photographs published by Al Jazeera, Getty Images). The Hermel corridor to Syria — Hezbollah’s only remaining overland supply route — is under Israeli air interdiction. Iran’s rejection of the peace plan means Hezbollah’s Iranian command-and-control (confirmed by PM Salam) will continue to direct operations from this region. The 150 Iranian nationals who have left Lebanon likely include some IRGC officers — but their replacements or remaining colleagues continue to operate.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 83/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ ELEVATED — IRANIAN MISSILE INTERCEPTED OVERHEAD

An Iranian ballistic missile was intercepted by the Lebanese Army over Keserwan this week — the first confirmed interception over this governorate. This is a significant escalation: Iranian missiles are now passing over or targeting areas in central Lebanon’s Christian heartland. Keserwan-Jbeil remains one of the primary displacement reception zones, with Jbeil and coastal communities hosting tens of thousands of displaced families. Jean Arnault’s appointment as UN personal envoy may focus some diplomatic attention on this region as a potential ceasefire implementation site.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | Status: ACTIVE OCCUPATION — DO NOT ENTER

South Lebanon is now formally declared as future Israeli-occupied territory. Israel’s Defence Minister, Finance Minister, and Prime Minister have all confirmed the IDF will hold all territory south of the Litani River indefinitely. Five Litani bridges have been destroyed. Homes in border villages are being systematically demolished “in accordance with the Beit Hanoun and Rafah models in Gaza.” Israeli troops are operating throughout the zone with ground combat continuing near Khiam and Taybeh.

The Lebanese Army faces the extraordinary situation of operating in territory Israel has declared it will permanently occupy. Al Jazeera confirmed today that Israeli attacks are making it “extremely difficult” for people south of the Litani to leave — meaning the very civilians Israel has ordered to evacuate cannot safely do so because the escape routes are being bombed.

The UNESCO World Heritage Site at Tyre’s Roman ruins has been endangered by an Israeli strike on an adjacent building.

Do not enter south Lebanon. This is now a declared Israeli military occupation zone.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | Status: Active Ground War — Evacuation Order for Burj Shemali

A new forced evacuation warning was issued for Burj Shemali — a large town in the Tyre district of Nabatieh — today. Overnight strikes continued across Nabatieh’s districts. Ground combat persists in Khiam, Taybeh, and surrounding areas. The IDF has issued evacuation orders for the entirety of Nabatieh Governorate including Nabatieh city (35,000+). The entire governorate is under active operations.

📊 LEBANON WAR DASHBOARD — MARCH 25, 2026

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — MARCH 25, 2026

⚠️ THE FIVE DEFINING QUESTIONS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS

1. WILL ISRAEL BEGIN FULL-SCALE LITANI OCCUPATION OPERATION? Katz confirmed the intent. Five bridges destroyed. Houses being demolished. Assessment: Full Litani occupation operation is imminent — likely within days to one week. This will be the largest Israeli military operation in Lebanon since the 2006 war.

2. WILL IRAN’S 5-CONDITION COUNTER-PROPOSAL OPEN NEGOTIATIONS? Iran rejected the US plan outright but submitted conditions. This creates a negotiating space — however narrow. Trump claimed Washington and Tehran were “close to an agreement.” Iran denied negotiations were happening. Assessment: Some back-channel contact exists but a deal is weeks away at minimum.

3. WILL A LEBANON CEASEFIRE BE INCLUDED IN A US-IRAN DEAL? NPR’s Frayer confirmed from Beirut today: unclear if Lebanon would be included. If excluded, Israel can continue Lebanon operations indefinitely even after an Iran-US ceasefire. Assessment: Lebanon’s exclusion from Iran deal is the most dangerous scenario for the country.

4. WILL HEZBOLLAH ACCEPT OR REJECT THE GOVERNMENT’S DIPLOMATIC TRACK? Qassem today called talks “surrender.” Hezbollah is demanding the government reverse the Iran ambassador expulsion. The government is holding firm. Assessment: Hezbollah will not participate in any delegation — meaning talks proceed without Shi’ite representation, limiting their legitimacy.

5. WILL THE UN’S JEAN ARNAULT ENVOY APPOINTMENT ACCELERATE A CEASEFIRE? Arnault is a veteran diplomat who negotiated agreements in Guatemala, Burundi, and Afghanistan. His appointment mirrors the diplomatic track that produced the November 2024 ceasefire. Assessment: Positive signal but results require weeks, not days.

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — MARCH 25, 2026

🚨 IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES TODAY:

SOUTH LEBANON (ALL) — DECLARED OCCUPATION ZONE: Israel has formally announced permanent occupation to the Litani River. If you are south of the Litani: the territory you are in has been declared a future Israeli military zone. Leave immediately — but carefully: Israeli strikes are hitting roads and fuel stations, making escape routes dangerous. Contact Lebanese Civil Defence (125) or Lebanese Red Cross (1760) for evacuation assistance.

BURJ SHEMALI — NEW EVACUATION ORDER TODAY: If you are in Burj Shemali, leave immediately north toward Sidon and then north.

NABATIEH CITY (35,000+): Still under active evacuation order. Ground operations are ongoing in Khiam and Taybeh. Do not return.

DAHIYEH / SOUTH BEIRUT: Seven areas struck in a single night (March 23-24). Do not return. If you are hosting displaced families from Dahiyeh — be aware that the IDF targets buildings it believes house Hezbollah personnel.

BEKAA VALLEY RESIDENTS RECEIVING PHONE CALLS: If you have received threatening calls from foreign numbers urging you to evacuate — leave today. This is a confirmed pre-strike IDF tactic.

BCHAMOUN PATTERN: The killing of a 3-year-old girl in Bchamoun — outside established Hezbollah zones, no warning, no stated target — confirms no residential building in Greater Beirut can be declared definitively safe. Know your emergency exit route.

IRANIAN NATIONALS IN LEBANON: Must leave per Lebanese government order. The expulsion of IRGC-linked individuals is actively being enforced. Iranian ambassador must leave by March 29.

🚗 MARCH 25 TRAVEL STATUS

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — MAXIMUM WAR OPERATIONS | MARCH 25, 2026

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company | 35+ Years

ACTIVE WAR PRIORITY SERVICES:

🚨 LITANI OCCUPATION ZONE EVACUATION With Israel formally declaring permanent occupation south of the Litani, CIS is coordinating priority evacuation for all civilians remaining in the declared zone. Alternative crossing points given bridge destruction are available — contact CIS immediately.

🏘️ BORDER VILLAGE DEMOLITION MONITORING IDF has ordered “acceleration of demolition” of Lebanese villages near the border “in accordance with the Rafah model.” CIS documents affected villages and coordinates evacuation before demolition begins.

📡 PEACE PLAN TRACKING Real-time monitoring of Iran counter-proposal status, Jean Arnault envoy deployment, US-Iran back-channel contacts, and Lebanon delegation formation progress. CIS will issue immediate alerts if ceasefire terms emerge.

⚖️ WAR CRIMES DOCUMENTATION HRW has issued two major reports today. CIS coordinates with HRW, Amnesty International, and UN OHCHR for evidence preservation in Bchamoun, Tyre, white phosphorus zones, and demolished border villages.

🏥 MEDICAL EVACUATION Sheikh Ragheb Harb University Hospital (Nabatieh) ICU damaged; healthcare access south of Litani is near-impossible per Al Jazeera. CIS coordinates medical evacuation to Beirut-area hospitals.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — MARCH 25

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net US Embassy: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 | Civil Defence: 125 | ISF: 112 UN OCHA Lebanon: Active — coordinating humanitarian response Anera Emergency: Active in Bekaa, Mount Lebanon, North

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — MARCH 25, 2026

Day 26. The war is “totally out of control” by the UN Secretary-General’s own words.

The defining reality of today: Israel has formally announced the permanent military occupation of 10% of Lebanon. This is not a temporary buffer or a negotiating position — it is a stated strategic objective confirmed by the Prime Minister, Defence Minister, and Finance Minister in the same week, backed by the systematic destruction of five Litani bridges and the acceleration of border village demolitions “in accordance with the Rafah model.”

Lebanon has responded with its most dramatic diplomatic acts in decades — expelling Iran’s ambassador, banning “resistance” from its media, demanding Hezbollah disarm — and it has achieved nothing in terms of stopping the bombing. Hezbollah has responded to its government’s actions by calling it Vichy France and demanding the reversal of every measure.

Iran has rejected the US peace plan. The UN has named a new envoy. Pentagon is deploying more troops. Spain and Turkey have condemned Israel. HRW has published two war crime reports in two days. And a 3-year-old girl is dead in Bchamoun.

Lebanon is facing the permanent loss of its southern territory, the permanent displacement of its Shi’ite southern population, and a political rupture between its government and its largest armed group — all simultaneously, with no ceasefire in sight.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Wednesday, March 25, 2026 | ACTIVE WAR — DAY 26 Sources verified today and yesterday: UN News live (3 hours ago — Guterres “out of control,” Arnault, Hormuz, Pentagon); France 24 live (2 hours ago — Iran rejects plan, Netanyahu buffer zone); Al Jazeera “Hezbollah chief urges unity, no talks” (2 hours ago); Al Jazeera “Spain’s PM” (11 hours ago); Al Jazeera “Strike near Roman ruins in Tyre” (1 day ago); Al Jazeera “Israel kills three in Beirut / Bchamoun” (1 day ago); Al Jazeera “IRGC ties to Hezbollah” (1 day ago); Reuters/Jerusalem Post “Israel announces Litani occupation” (1 day ago); Middle East Eye “Smotrich Litani border” (1-2 days ago); New Arab “Night of terror” (1 day ago); Human Rights Watch

“Displacement is possible war crime” (today, March 25); HRW “Officials signal stepped-up atrocities” (March 24); Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War (1 day ago); NPR Lauren Frayer from Beirut (11 hours ago); Washington Times/AFP/Reuters Iran ambassador expulsion (1 day ago); Ya Libnan analysis (today); House of Saud deep analysis (1 day ago); UNN Ukraine-based reporting (16 hours ago). All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health as cited by Al Jazeera and Reuters. Displacement from UNHCR/UN spokesperson Dujarric. All diplomatic events from named newswire sources. Index compiled: Wednesday, March 25, 2026 — 18:00 Beirut time.