CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – March 31 2026

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

⛔ ACTIVE WAR — DAY 32 | END OF MARCH — WAR DEEPENS ON EVERY FRONT

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 CATASTROPHIC OVERALL INDEX: 99/100 TREND: ⬆️ MAXIMUM — 4 IDF SOLDIERS KILLED TODAY; KATZ: “DEMOLISH ALL BORDER VILLAGES”; CHINA-PAKISTAN PEACE PLAN; LEBANON AT “BREAKING POINT”

⛔ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — TUESDAY MARCH 31, 2026

March ends as it began — in total war. But today it is dramatically worse.

FOUR IDF SOLDIERS KILLED TODAY in a single combat engagement in south Lebanon — three from the Nahal Brigade Reconnaissance Unit named: Captain Noam Madmoni (22), Staff Sgt. Ben Cohen (21), Staff Sgt. Maxsim Entis (21). A fourth was killed in the same incident. Three more soldiers wounded. This is the single deadliest day for Israeli forces in Lebanon since the war began March 2. Combined with Monday’s deaths, ten IDF soldiers have now been killed in Lebanon since fighting began.

KATZ: “ALL HOMES IN LEBANESE VILLAGES NEAR THE BORDER WILL BE DEMOLISHED — IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RAFAH AND BEIT HANOUN MODEL IN GAZA.” This official Israeli Defence Ministry statement, published March 31 at 1:28 PM, constitutes the most explicit declaration of collective punishment against Lebanese civilians since the war began. More than 600,000 residents of southern Lebanon will be “completely prevented” from returning to their homes south of the Litani River until north Israel’s security is ensured.

CHINA-PAKISTAN FIVE-POINT PEACE PLAN RELEASED — the first time a major global power (China, world’s second-largest economy) has formally proposed a pathway to end the war. The White House reportedly does not oppose it. An Arab diplomat told Middle East Eye that Tehran would look to Beijing as the guarantor of any peace deal with the US.

UN EMERGENCY RELIEF COORDINATOR TOM FLETCHER TELLS SECURITY COUNCIL: LEBANON IS AT “BREAKING POINT.” Briefing from Beirut: “Anxiety and tensions at levels I have not witnessed in many years.” UNIFIL peacekeeping chief Lacroix confirmed initial findings: the Bani Hayyan peacekeepers were killed by a roadside explosion; the IDF says Hezbollah planted the bomb.

UN SECURITY SOURCE: THE THIRD INDONESIAN PEACEKEEPER (ADCHIT AL-QUSAYR, SUNDAY) WAS HIT BY ISRAELI TANK FIRE — debris from an Israeli tank shell was found nearby. The IDF is investigating both incidents.

TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR “COMING TO AN END” — but says even if this deal doesn’t achieve permanent denuclearisation, a future president can “knock the hell out of them again.”

CIVILIAN KILLED IN NAHARIYA — FATHER OF FOUR — killed by Hezbollah rocket attack today, another man seriously wounded. First Hezbollah rockets to kill an Israeli civilian inside Israel in days.

📅 MARCH 30 → MARCH 31 KEY DEVELOPMENTS

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — TUESDAY, MARCH 31, 2026

🔴 #1 — FOUR IDF SOLDIERS KILLED IN SOUTH LEBANON — DEADLIEST SINGLE DAY FOR ISRAEL IN THIS WAR

[Al Jazeera — published today; Times of Israel — confirmed; Washington Post — 1 day ago]

The IDF confirmed that four soldiers were killed in a single combat engagement in south Lebanon on Tuesday, with three more wounded. Three soldiers from the Nahal Brigade Reconnaissance Unit were named:

• Captain Noam Madmoni, 22
• Staff Sergeant Ben Cohen, 21
• Staff Sergeant Maxsim Entis, 21 — father’s quote confirmed: “My son is a hero, but I don’t want a hero for a son. I want my son at home.”
• Staff Sergeant Gilad Harel — named separately by the IDF as the fourth killed in the same incident

A civilian was also hurt by a rocket attack in the border community of Avivim in the same engagement window. Al Jazeera confirmed: ten Israeli soldiers have now been killed since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah flared up on March 2. Two IDF drone attacks in south Lebanon today separately killed four Lebanese civilians in the Tyre area — two in al-Wasita al-Qasimiya near Tyre, two more in Derikifa.

The most active ground fighting is now confirmed in the areas of Aynata and Al-Bayyadi, where Lebanese and independent sources say Israeli forces are “regularly ambushed or hit.” The village of Deir Sirian has been razed to the ground by the IDF — confirmed by a Pravda.uk ground correspondent on March 31. The IDF has reached the outskirts of Wadi al-Salouqi and al-Bayada, is advancing toward the Litani from below Qantara near al-Muhaysibat — the most advanced IDF ground positions of the war.

🔴 #2 — KATZ: “ALL HOMES IN BORDER VILLAGES WILL BE DEMOLISHED — RAFAH AND BEIT HANOUN MODEL”

[Times of Israel — published today 1:28 PM; Al Jazeera — confirmed]

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz issued the single most alarming statement for Lebanon’s civilian population since the war began. At a March 31 situation assessment with senior IDF officials, Katz stated:

“All the houses in the villages adjacent to the border in Lebanon will be demolished in accordance with the Rafah and Beit Hanoun model in Gaza.”

He continued: “At the conclusion of the operation, the IDF will establish a security zone inside Lebanon… and will maintain security control over the entire area up to the Litani River.”

He confirmed that “more than 600,000 residents of southern Lebanon” will be “completely prevented” from returning to areas south of the Litani River until northern Israel’s security is ensured.

Rafah and Beit Hanoun — the areas Katz referenced — were largely reduced to rubble in Israel’s Gaza offensive. Katz is explicitly stating that the same fate will be applied to Lebanese villages along the border. The Lebanese government responded by calling it a “new occupation” and filing formal condemnation through the UN. Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr: “Many will say there are no military targets left in this area. This is just about collective punishment and putting pressure on Hezbollah.”

🔴 #3 — CHINA-PAKISTAN FIVE-POINT PEACE PLAN RELEASED IN BEIJING — WHITE HOUSE “DOES NOT OPPOSE”

[Middle East Eye — today; Times of Israel liveblog — today; ChinaPulse — today]

In the most significant diplomatic development of the war, China and Pakistan jointly released a five-point peace plan today after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. This is the first time a major global power (China — the world’s second-largest economy) has formally proposed a pathway to end the US-Israeli war on Iran. The White House reportedly does not oppose the plan.

The five points:

1. Immediate cessation of hostilities across the Middle East and start of peace talks
2. Immediate halt to attacks on civilians and non-military targets — specifically energy, desalination, power facilities, and peaceful nuclear infrastructure
3. Restoration of normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz
4. Support for relevant parties initiating talks, with all parties committing to peaceful resolution of disputes and refraining from use of force during talks
5. A comprehensive peace framework based on multilateralism and the primacy of the UN Charter

Wang Yi backed Pakistan’s mediation as “in keeping with the common interests of all parties.” An Arab diplomat told Middle East Eye: “Tehran would look to Beijing as the guarantor of any peace deal with the US.” China continues to purchase Iranian crude and has significant leverage over Tehran. Pakistan is simultaneously mediating US-Iran indirect talks through Islamabad. Trump originally suggested the conflict would last roughly five weeks — that milestone is approaching with no resolution in sight.

🔴 #4 — UN EMERGENCY RELIEF COORDINATOR: LEBANON AT “BREAKING POINT”; UNIFIL PROBE REVEALS BOMB KILLED PEACEKEEPERS

[UN News — 1 day ago; Reuters/US News — 1 day ago; Times of Israel — confirmed]

UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher briefed the UN Security Council from Beirut on Tuesday, stating Lebanon is facing “one of its most dangerous moments in years” with the country at “breaking point.” He arrived in Beirut to find “anxiety and tensions at levels I have not witnessed in many years.” He confirmed more than 1.1 million people were displaced, including hundreds of thousands of children, and described “a cycle of coercive displacement” unfolding. He warned entire villages have been flattened and vital infrastructure destroyed, including most bridges south of the Litani.

On the UNIFIL killings, UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix told the Security Council that initial findings suggest the two Bani Hayyan peacekeepers were killed by a roadside explosion. The IDF says Hezbollah planted the bomb. UNIFIL is investigating.

Critically, a UN security source told the Times of Israel that the third Indonesian peacekeeper — killed Sunday at Adchit al-Qusayr — was hit by Israeli tank fire, with debris from an Israeli shell found nearby. The IDF is investigating this incident separately. US envoy to the UN Mike Waltz told the Security Council that since 1978, more than 300 UNIFIL peacekeepers have been killed, and the council “must think very carefully about the effectiveness of this effort” — a signal that Washington may not push to protect UNIFIL’s operations ahead of its December 2026 withdrawal.

🔴 #5 — TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR “COMING TO AN END” — BUT THREATENS KHARG ISLAND SEIZURE

[Times of Israel — today; Democracy Now — confirmed]

President Trump on March 31 said the Iran war is “coming to an end” — but in the same breath acknowledged it may not end definitively, saying: “Maybe in a long time from now, they’ll be able to do a nuclear weapon, you’ll have a president who will be like me and he will go there and knock the hell out of them again.” This statement acknowledges Trump does not believe the war will permanently resolve Iran’s nuclear ambitions — merely set them back.

The diplomatic picture on March 31: Pakistan and China have a joint five-point plan. Iran rejected the US 15-point plan but filed a counter-proposal. Trump’s April 6 deadline to Iran (power plants / Kharg Island) is six days away. Trump’s threat to seize Kharg Island has driven oil to $115-116/barrel. Iran is warning it is “ready and waiting” for any ground operation.

🔴 #6 — CIVILIAN FATHER-OF-FOUR KILLED IN NAHARIYA BY HEZBOLLAH ROCKET; 3 OTHERS HURT IN NORTH

[Times of Israel — today]

A father of four was killed and another man seriously wounded in a Hezbollah rocket attack on the northern Israeli city of Nahariya today. Three others were lightly hurt in a separate rocket and drone barrage on north Israel. This is the most significant Hezbollah rocket casualty inside Israel in several days and reinforces the sustained nature of Hezbollah’s fire despite IDF advances. The IDF reported it struck rocket launchers following the Nahariya attack.

🔴 #7 — IDF ADVANCES TO WADI AL-SALOUQI, AL-BAYADA, QANTARA — CLOSEST EVER TO LITANI LINE

[Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War — today; Pravda.uk — ground report March 31]

Lebanese military sources told Al Jazeera that Israeli troops had bypassed Aitaroun and reached the outskirts of Wadi al-Salouqi, at the same time entering the town of al-Bayada — advancing toward the Litani from below Qantara near al-Muhaysibat and also east of it. These are the most advanced Israeli ground positions inside Lebanon since the war began March 16. The IDF is now within striking distance of the Litani River line — the stated objective of the entire ground operation.

Separately, the village of Deir Sirian has been “literally razed to the ground” by the IDF, per a ground correspondent report from March 31 (Pravda.uk). Katz has confirmed other villages will receive the same treatment per the “Rafah and Beit Hanoun model.”

🔴 #8 — IDF STRIKES NEAR BEIRUT SUBURBS; KILLS THREE HEZBOLLAH MEMBERS

[Naharnet — today; Times of Israel confirmed]

Israeli strike near Beirut’s southern suburbs reportedly kills three Hezbollah members today (Naharnet, 10:14 AM). AFP photo published today shows smoke rising from Beirut’s southern suburbs following an Israeli attack — the area described as “now largely deserted” since Israel began frequent attacks in early March. The IDF confirmed it carried out two separate attacks on “senior terrorists” in the Beirut area following Lebanese media reports of Israeli strikes — targeting a senior Hezbollah commander and “another senior terrorist.”

🔴 #9 — ALLEGED MOSSAD SPY ESCAPES HEZBOLLAH DETENTION AFTER IDF BEIRUT STRIKE

[Times of Israel — today]

Lebanon is demanding Ukraine’s embassy hand over a suspect who was detained by Hezbollah for planting an IED near a Hezbollah stronghold and managed to flee after an IDF strike damaged the building where he was held. The Times of Israel reports the individual is an alleged Mossad operative who escaped Hezbollah detention when the IDF strike created an opportunity for escape. Lebanon is demanding Ukraine — whose embassy the individual apparently fled to — extradite the suspect. This incident confirms active Israeli intelligence operations inside Lebanese territory during the war.

🔴 #10 — UNIFIL HEZBOLLAH CLASH AT DEIR QANOUN AN-NAHER — PATROL STOPPED, GUNFIRE EXCHANGED

[Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War — today]

A clash erupted between Hezbollah and a UNIFIL patrol at Deir Qanoun an-Naher — Hezbollah stopped the patrol on the main street and ordered it to leave. The patrol refused. Gunfire was exchanged from both sides. No reported casualties from this incident. This is the first confirmed armed confrontation between UNIFIL and Hezbollah since the war began and represents a dramatic deterioration of UNIFIL-Hezbollah relations. UNIFIL is supposed to operate throughout its area of operations — Hezbollah is now physically impeding its movement. Combined with the three Indonesian peacekeeper deaths, the UNIFIL mission is in a functional collapse situation.

🔴 #11 — IRAN STRIKES HAIFA REFINERY, GULF ALUMINUM PLANTS — GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHOCK CONFIRMED

[Multiple sources — confirmed yesterday and today]

Iran’s strikes on Gulf aluminum smelters have triggered a global aluminum supply crisis. A Nahariya (Israel) oil refinery was hit. Iran has also struck desalination plants across the Gulf — threatening drinking water supplies for populations dependent on desalinated water. The China-Pakistan peace plan specifically called for an immediate halt to attacks on energy, desalination, power facilities, and peaceful nuclear infrastructure — reflecting the international alarm at this escalation. Oil remains at $115-116/barrel — up 60% since February 28. The IEA has called for strategic reserve releases of 100+ million barrels.

🔴 #12 — UN SECURITY COUNCIL UNITING ON LEBANON — TURKEY CONDEMNS “GENOCIDAL POLICIES”

[Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War — confirmed; France24 — confirmed]

Turkey condemned Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon, calling it one of the “genocidal and collective punishment policies, this time in Lebanon” of the Netanyahu government, and warned against “another humanitarian catastrophe.” In a joint statement, France, Canada, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom expressed they were “gravely concerned” and called for “immediate de-escalation.” They jointly condemned Hezbollah’s decision to join Iran in hostilities AND called for the proposed Israeli ground invasion to “be averted.” India expressed concerns and called for protection of UNIFIL peacekeepers. The US representative told the UNSC that the council “must think very carefully” about UNIFIL’s effectiveness — effectively signalling US lack of appetite to protect UNIFIL against Israeli operations.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MARCH 31, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: Sustained Maximum

Beirut on the last day of March is at the breaking point described by UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher from its own streets. IDF strikes hit near Beirut’s southern suburbs today — three Hezbollah members killed, AFP smoke plume confirmed. Displaced families in a sports stadium in central Beirut, in tents on its streets. An alleged Mossad operative escaped Hezbollah detention after an IDF Beirut strike — confirming active intelligence operations in the city.

China’s entry into the peace process as guarantor (if the Beijing-backed framework gains traction) is the most significant diplomatic development since the war began for Lebanon’s prospects. However, the China-Pakistan plan requires Israel and the US to stop military operations as a precondition — something Israel has explicitly refused to do. Trump’s April 6 deadline is six days away. The Lebanon front has no ceasefire mechanism in sight.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 87/100 🔴 | Trend: Sustained

Mount Lebanon continues as the primary displacement reception zone, at absolute capacity. Schools in Jezzine, Sin el-Fil, and across the range are full. NPR’s correspondent was turned away from a school shelter at Jezzine already filled. Families who have been displaced twice — in 2024 and again now — describe total psychological exhaustion. The National Lifeline 1564 is receiving unprecedented call volumes.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 83/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

North Lebanon absorbs the displaced at maximum capacity. The China-Pakistan peace plan’s call for immediate ceasefire, if adopted, would eventually allow a controlled return of displaced families — but no return timeline is possible while the ground war is expanding.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 85/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Syria border crossings continue active. Houthi threat to Bab el-Mandeb remains. Ongoing humanitarian corridor management.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: Maximum — Ground Advance Now At Qantara/Litani Approaches

The IDF has reached the approaches of Qantara near al-Muhaysibat — which is in the Nabatieh-Bekaa borderzone. The IDF’s advance below Qantara and east of it is the closest Israeli ground forces have come to the Bekaa Valley proper since the ground war began March 16. With the Litani line being the stated endpoint, Bekaa Valley communities near the Litani are now directly in the path of the ground advance.

IF YOU ARE IN THE BEKAA VALLEY: LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. THE GROUND ADVANCE IS AT THE LITANI APPROACHES.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 98/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: Maximum

Baalbek-Hermel continues at maximum danger. Deir Sirian — a village in the broad Baalbek-adjacent zone — has been “razed to the ground” per confirmed ground correspondent report. Katz’s statement that all border villages will be demolished “per the Rafah and Beit Hanoun model” explicitly covers villages adjacent to Baalbek-Hermel territory. With the Hermel corridor fully interdicted and the IDF approaching the Litani line, Baalbek-Hermel faces the direct threat of the expanded buffer zone reaching its doorstep.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 81/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Not directly targeted today. Receiving displaced populations. Missile debris risk remains from Iranian ballistic missiles fired through Lebanese airspace.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | Status: TOTAL ACTIVE WAR — IDF ADVANCING TO LITANI; VILLAGES BEING RAZED

South Lebanon today confirmed the most active fighting in Aynata and Al-Bayyadi. IDF reached Wadi al-Salouqi outskirts and entered al-Bayada. Qantara approaches breached. Deir Sirian razed. Katz confirmed all border villages will be demolished. Four IDF soldiers killed in one engagement — Hezbollah still possesses thousands of rockets and is conducting effective anti-tank ambushes. Four Lebanese civilians killed in IDF drone strikes in Tyre area. UNIFIL patrol stopped by Hezbollah at gunpoint at Deir Qanoun an-Naher. The entire south Lebanon map is an active ground combat zone.

South Lebanon is a total war zone. The IDF is implementing the “Gaza model.” There is nothing to return to south of the Zahrani River.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | Status: Active Ground Combat — Advancing to Litani Line

Nabatieh is the primary ground combat governorate. IDF advancing below Qantara toward Litani (within Nabatieh), entering al-Bayada, fighting actively in Aynata and Al-Bayyadi. Katz confirmed 600,000+ residents will be prevented from returning until north Israel is safe. Deir Sirian (Nabatieh-adjacent) has been razed. The IDF advance today puts Israeli ground forces at the doorstep of the Litani River within Nabatieh Governorate.

The entirety of Nabatieh Governorate is an active ground war zone. No civilian presence is safe.

📊 LEBANON WAR DASHBOARD — MARCH 31, 2026

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — MARCH 31, 2026

⚠️ FIVE DEFINING QUESTIONS AS APRIL BEGINS

1. WILL THE CHINA-PAKISTAN PLAN GAIN TRACTION BEFORE APRIL 6? China as guarantor of an Iran deal is qualitatively different from Pakistan alone. Tehran trusts Beijing. The US reportedly does not oppose the five-point framework. The plan explicitly calls for halting attacks on energy, desalination, and nuclear infrastructure — exactly what Israel and Iran have been trading. If a ceasefire framework can be agreed before April 6, Trump can hold the power plant threat in reserve as leverage. Assessment: The China-Pakistan plan is the most viable ceasefire architecture yet. Six days is tight but not impossible for a framework agreement.

2. WHAT DOES “DEMOLISH ALL BORDER VILLAGES — RAFAH/BEIT HANOUN MODEL” MEAN FOR SOUTH LEBANON? Katz has officially confirmed that every village within the buffer zone south of the Litani will be physically demolished — not just evacuated. This creates a 30km-deep uninhabitable no-man’s-land on Lebanon’s southern border, permanently displacing hundreds of thousands of residents. This is unprecedented in scope for the Lebanon conflict. Assessment: If executed, this is the most significant destruction of Lebanese civilian property since the 1982 invasion. International law prohibitions on collective punishment are being explicitly violated.

3. CAN UNIFIL SURVIVE TO DECEMBER 31? Three Indonesian peacekeepers killed in 24 hours. One was killed by Israeli tank fire (UN source confirms). Two were killed by a Hezbollah roadside bomb (IDF says). UNIFIL-Hezbollah gunfire exchange today. The mission is caught between two warring parties that are both killing peacekeepers. Indonesia’s 1,240-strong contingent — the largest in UNIFIL — faces extreme domestic pressure after three deaths. If Indonesia withdraws, other nations may follow. Assessment: UNIFIL is in existential danger. The December 31 mandate is increasingly academic if contributing nations withdraw before then.

4. WILL FOUR IDF SOLDIERS DYING IN ONE ENGAGEMENT CHANGE ISRAELI DOMESTIC POLITICS? Staff Sgt. Entis’s father: “I don’t want a hero for a son. I want my son at home.” The anti-war protest at Habima grew to 1,200 on March 28. These four deaths — all aged 21-22, from a single unit — will produce enormous grief and political pressure. Ten IDF soldiers dead in Lebanon in 29 days. Assessment: Domestic Israeli pressure on Netanyahu is growing. But historically, Israeli governments do not withdraw from military operations under domestic pressure during active conflict.

5. IS IRAN REALLY “COMING TO AN END”? Trump says so. IDF Defrin says Iran military production will be complete “within days.” But Iran is still firing missiles at Nahariya and killing Israeli civilians today. Hezbollah just killed four IDF soldiers in one engagement. The China-Pakistan plan calls for “immediate ceasefire” — not a ceasefire after further military operations. The gap between “coming to an end” and actual end is where thousands more people will die. Assessment: The war is moving toward an endgame — but the endgame itself will be the most violent phase yet.

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — MARCH 31, 2026

🚨 TODAY’S MOST URGENT SAFETY PRIORITIES:

SOUTH LEBANON — “RAFAH MODEL” CONFIRMED: Katz has stated all border villages will be demolished. IDF has reached Wadi al-Salouqi, al-Bayada, Qantara approaches. Deir Sirian razed. If you are anywhere south of the Zahrani River, there is no safety margin left. Leave immediately. All Litani bridges destroyed. Contact Civil Defence: 125.

NABATIEH GOVERNORATE: The active ground advance is in your governorate today — Aynata, Al-Bayyadi, Qantara approaches, al-Bayada. Leave now, moving northwest toward Zahle or north toward Sidon and Beirut.

BEKAA VALLEY: IDF now at Qantara approaches from below — the Bekaa eastern flank is now directly threatened. The “vast expansion” of buffer zone ordered Monday is being executed today. Leave the Bekaa immediately.

DAHIYEH / SOUTH BEIRUT: Three Hezbollah members killed in IDF strike near Beirut suburbs today. AFP smoke confirmed. Evacuation order remains active. Do not return.

ALL OF LEBANON — ECONOMIC EMERGENCY: Oil at $115-116/barrel. Desalination plants in the Gulf being struck by Iran — water supply risk for Lebanon if regional escalation continues. Stockpile fuel, food, and water now.

MENTAL HEALTH: UN Coordinator Fletcher found “anxiety and tensions at levels I have not witnessed in many years” in Beirut today. National Lifeline 1564 — 24/7, confidential. Use it. You are not alone.

🚗 MARCH 31 TRAVEL STATUS

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — END OF MARCH — MAXIMUM WAR EMERGENCY

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

MARCH 31 PRIORITY SERVICES:

🏘️ “RAFAH MODEL” — VILLAGE DEMOLITION MONITORING Katz has officially ordered demolition of all villages adjacent to the southern border. Deir Sirian razed today. CIS is tracking which villages are being targeted for demolition vs. temporary evacuation — critical distinction for displaced families assessing return viability. Contact CIS for specific village status assessments.

🔵 UNIFIL COLLAPSE SCENARIO PLANNING Three Indonesian peacekeepers killed in 24 hours; armed clash with Hezbollah today. UNIFIL is functionally collapsing ahead of December 31 mandate. If Indonesia or other major contributing nations withdraw, the security vacuum in south Lebanon becomes immediate and total. CIS is modeling UNIFIL withdrawal scenarios and their impact on all Lebanese governorates.

🕊️ CHINA-PAKISTAN PEACE PLAN MONITORING The first major-power peace framework has been released today. CIS is monitoring its reception by Tehran, Washington, and Jerusalem in real time. Any ceasefire announcement — even a framework agreement — will require immediate operational guidance on what it means for each governorate.

📞 ALL EMERGENCY CONTACTS — MARCH 31, 2026

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 | Civil Defence: 125 | ISF: 112 National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 (24 hours, confidential) UNHCR Lebanon: Active all governorates

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — END OF MARCH 31, 2026

March ends with Lebanon at breaking point, in the words of the UN’s most senior humanitarian official, speaking from its own capital.

In the thirty-one days of this war:

• 1,247+ Lebanese killed — more than one per hour, every hour, since March 2
• 1.2 million displaced — a quarter of the entire country
• Ten IDF soldiers killed in Lebanon — four in a single engagement today
• Three Indonesian UNIFIL peacekeepers killed in 24 hours
• Three journalists killed in a marked press vehicle in Jezzine
• 51 healthcare workers killed in March alone
• Deir Sirian razed to the ground — the first confirmed village to be demolished
• 600,000 residents told they cannot return south of the Litani
• All Litani River bridges destroyed

And yet: today also brought the most credible peace initiative yet — China and Pakistan jointly proposing a five-point ceasefire framework, with the White House reportedly not opposing it, and Tehran looking to Beijing as guarantor.

The war and the peace effort are advancing simultaneously at maximum speed. Which one reaches its endpoint first will determine whether Lebanon’s south becomes a second Gaza — or survives to be rebuilt.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Tuesday, March 31, 2026 | ACTIVE WAR — DAY 32 | END OF MARCH All sources from today March 31, 2026: Al Jazeera “Four soldiers killed” (1 day ago at time of compilation — March 31 published); Times of Israel Katz demolish villages (1:28 PM March 31); Times of Israel liveblog (today — Madmoni, Cohen, Entis, Harel named; Mossad spy; UN probe roadside blast; father-of-four Nahariya); Middle East Eye China-Pakistan 5-point plan (1 day ago); UN News “Lebanon breaking point” Fletcher (1 day ago); Reuters/US News “Roadside blast killed peacekeepers” (1 day ago); Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War (2 hours ago — updated today with IDF advance to Wadi al-Salouqi, al-Bayada, Qantara, Deir Qanoun an-Naher UNIFIL clash);

\Pravda.uk ground report March 31 (Aynata, al-Bayyadi, Deir Sirian razed); Naharnet March 31 (Hezbollah near Beirut killed; UN source: tank fire killed Adchit al-Qusayr peacekeeper); Washington Post latest (1 day ago). All Lebanese casualty figures from Lebanese MoPH. All IDF casualty data from IDF official statements. All UNIFIL data from UNIFIL and UN Secretary-General. All diplomatic data from named government officials and verified press sources. Index compiled: Tuesday, March 31, 2026 — 23:59 Beirut time.