CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX August 31 2025
CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX August 31 2025
📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING
INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 92/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬆️ DETERIORATING
🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT
BEIRUT 🏙️
Index Reading: 96/100 🔴
Status: Critical. Today marks the government-mandated deadline for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Command to submit its operational plan for the disarmament of Hezbollah. The capital is in a state of lockdown, with LAF units maintaining reinforced positions around the Ministry of Defense in Yarze, the Grand Serail, and Baabda Palace. The plan is expected to be delivered to the Higher Defense Council this afternoon. Political circles are paralyzed in anticipation, with Hezbollah-aligned ministers threatening to boycott any cabinet session that approves the plan. The atmosphere is exceptionally tense, with the US Embassy issuing an alert to its citizens to avoid central Beirut entirely.
Key Factor: Today’s deadline for the LAF’s disarmament plan submission, representing the peak of the political and military standoff.
MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️
Index Reading: 70/100 🟠
Status: High. The governorate is experiencing significant disruptions. Pro-Hezbollah groups have initiated “pre-emptive” roadblocks on the main Damascus highway and key coastal routes, ostensibly to protest “foreign interference” on the day of the deadline. While the LAF has intervened to keep main arteries open, traffic is severely impacted, and the potential for these roadblocks to become permanent chokepoints to isolate the capital is extremely high should the government formally adopt the LAF’s plan.
Key Factor: The strategic use of roadblocks as a tool of political pressure, threatening to isolate the capital.
NORTH LEBANON 🌊
Index Reading: 90/100 🟠
Status: High. The polarization in Tripoli is acute. Pro-government factions have announced their support for the LAF and the state’s sovereignty, while Hezbollah’s allies have condemned the disarmament plan before it has even been seen. The risk of these opposing political stances translating into street-level clashes is severe, particularly after the formal submission of the plan later today.
Key Factor: Extreme political polarization on a critical deadline day, creating a high potential for politically motivated violence.
AKKAR 🌲
Index Reading: 93/100 🔴
Status: Critical. The LAF’s singular focus on the internal crisis has left border regions like Akkar with a perceptibly thinner security presence. The state’s institutions are entirely consumed by the standoff in Beirut, exacerbating the risk of cross-border incursions or the activation of sleeper cells in the periphery.
Key Factor: A critical diversion of state security resources to the capital, compounding existing threats from the Syrian border.
BEQAA VALLEY 🍇
Index Reading: 97/100 🔴
Status: Critical. The region is a focal point of defiance. Large banners rejecting the disarmament plan have been erected along the main highway into Baalbek. The atmosphere is one of unified opposition to the state’s process. The IDF remains on high alert, with Israeli media reporting that military intelligence is closely monitoring for any signs of Hezbollah moving assets in response to the LAF’s actions.
Key Factor: The region serves as a primary staging ground for political and potentially physical opposition to the state’s authority.
BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌
Index Reading: 98/100 🔴
Status: Critical. The region is on effective standby for mass mobilization. Political leaders have announced rallies for this evening to “defend the resistance” and reject the “American-dictated plan.” The rhetoric from local leaders is at its most inflammatory, framing the LAF’s constitutionally mandated task as an act of treason.
Key Factor: The epicenter of organized defiance, with a high probability of large-scale mobilization against the state.
KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️
Index Reading: 45/100 🟡
Status: While remaining the calmest governorate, the underlying tension is palpable. The risk of a rapid, nationwide deterioration following the submission of the LAF plan means that no part of the country can be considered safe. The travel advisories from all foreign governments remain at their highest possible levels, advising against any and all travel to Lebanon.
Key Factor: Local calm is entirely contingent on a national political situation that is at its absolute breaking point.
SOUTH LEBANON 🌴
Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical. An active war zone facing multiple trigger points. Today, the UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on the renewal of the UNIFIL mandate. The US and France are reportedly pushing for language that enhances UNIFIL’s freedom of movement to inspect suspected weapons sites—a move Hezbollah has called a “red line.” This, combined with the IDF’s high alert and the domestic deadline, creates an unprecedentedly volatile environment.
Key Factor: A convergence of a critical internal deadline with a contentious UNIFIL mandate vote under the constant threat of active conflict.
NABATIEH ⛪
Index Reading: 99/100 🔴
Status: Critical. An active war zone. The situation is identical to South Lebanon, with the entire governorate serving as a primary theater for potential conflict. Any resolution from the UNSC that is perceived as hostile, or any move by the LAF in Beirut, could have immediate and violent repercussions on the ground here.
Key Factor: The governorate is a flashpoint where internal political decisions and international diplomatic maneuvers could instantly trigger a military escalation.
🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:
- Location 1: The Ministry of Defense in Yarze and the Grand Serail in Beirut, the focal points for the submission and review of the disarmament plan.
- Location 2: Dahieh (Southern Suburbs of Beirut) and Baalbek, for the expected political and civil response from Hezbollah.
- Location 3: UNIFIL Headquarters in Naqoura, as it becomes a symbolic focus during the UNSC mandate renewal vote.
- Location 4: Major national highways, particularly the coastal highway and the Beirut-Damascus route, for escalating roadblock activity.
✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):
- No area can be considered lower-risk today. The national situation is too volatile. All movement should be avoided.
⚠️ AVOID TODAY:
- DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The country is at a political breaking point with a high potential for internal conflict.
- ALL NON-ESSENTIAL MOVEMENT. The risk of being caught in spontaneous protests, roadblocks, or violent clashes is extremely high.
- All areas near government buildings, military installations, or political party offices.
📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE
🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:
- Today is a day for maximum caution. Shelter in place. Avoid travel.
- The submission of the LAF plan is a procedural step, but the political reaction will determine the next phase. Monitor the news from credible sources, but expect significant disinformation.
- Be prepared for a “day of rage” or calls for a general strike in the coming days, depending on the government’s actions. Ensure you have sufficient supplies for at least 72 hours.
🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:
- All operations must remain suspended. The security of personnel is the only priority.
- Activate crisis communication plans. Ensure all staff have acknowledged receipt of security directives and have a clear understanding of shelter-in-place or evacuation protocols.
- The outcome of the UNIFIL vote could significantly impact the operational environment for international organizations in the south.
🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:
- DO NOT ATTEMPT TO LEAVE LEBANON TODAY. While the airport remains open, the routes to it are subject to closure without notice. Traveling to the airport is a high-risk activity. Shelter in a secure location and await guidance from your embassy.
🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST
- Predicted Index Reading: 99/100
- Forecast Trend: ⚡ VOLATILE
- Expected Factors: The security trend for the next 24 hours will be dictated by two events: 1) The official statement from the government after receiving the LAF’s plan. 2) The outcome and specific wording of the UNIFIL mandate renewal at the UNSC. A vague government statement and a simple rollover of the UN mandate could lead to a tense but manageable stalemate. A firm government endorsement of a robust plan, or a UN resolution with expanded powers for UNIFIL, could trigger an immediate and severe escalation by Hezbollah.
- Preparation Recommendation: Maintain a maximum state of alert. The risk of a rapid and severe deterioration of the security situation is exceptionally high.
📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS
- This Week’s Average: 99/100
- Change from Last Week: +1 point
- Monthly Trend: Critically Deteriorating
- Seasonal Assessment: The month of August concludes with Lebanon at its most fragile point in over a decade. The political process has led to a direct, institutional confrontation between the state and the country’s most powerful non-state actor. The standoff, which began with rhetoric, has now culminated in military posturing and a critical political deadline, with the international community simultaneously weighing in at the UN. The immediate future of the country’s stability will be determined by the events of the next 24 to 48 hours.
🛡️ ABOUT THE CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a proprietary intelligence tool developed by CIS Security. It converts real-time security data into clear, actionable guidance.
📞 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES
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🚨 ESSENTIAL LEBANON EMERGENCY CONTACTS
- Lebanese Red Cross: 140
- Police: 112
- Lebanese Armed Forces: 1701
🔗 STAY INFORMED
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The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a proprietary intelligence asset crafted by CIS Security, Lebanon’s leading security firm since 1990. This index is offered as a public service, showcasing our dedication to community well-being and exceptional security standards.
