CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Dec 21 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 79/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM – DIPLOMATIC MOMENTUM BUILDING

🚨 BREAKING: 15TH NAQOURA TALKS FOCUS ON RESIDENT RETURNS & PARIS ARMY CONFERENCE

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2025:

FRIDAY’S NAQOURA MEETING: The 15th session of the Pentalateral ceasefire monitoring committee convened in Naqoura on December 19, marking the second meeting to include civilian representatives from Lebanon and Israel. Discussions focused on enabling displaced residents to return home safely, advancing reconstruction, and addressing economic priorities.

CIVILIAN RETURN PRIORITY: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with diplomat Simon Karam after the talks, emphasizing that allowing tens of thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians to return to their villages and homes is “an entry point for addressing all other details.” The next committee meeting is scheduled for January 7, 2026.

PARIS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCED: Following Thursday’s Paris meeting between Army Commander General Rudolphe Haykal, US envoy Morgan Ortagus, and Saudi representatives, an international conference to support the Lebanese Armed Forces will be held in February 2026. The conference aims to strengthen the LAF as guarantor of security south of the Litani River.

HEZBOLLAH DISARMAMENT ROADMAP: Paris discussions centered on political, financial, and military support to help Lebanon implement ceasefire commitments and gradually reduce Hezbollah’s military role. General Haykal reportedly agreed to document Hezbollah disarmament progress as part of the international support framework.

GAZA CEASEFIRE HOLDING: The ceasefire in Gaza is broadly holding despite sporadic clashes, with Israeli forces having pulled back to the “yellow line.” Israeli strikes continue against alleged Hezbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon, though today marks a relatively quiet period in the ongoing pattern of violations.

88,000 STILL DISPLACED: More than 88,000 Lebanese remain displaced from their homes in southern regions, with Israel still occupying more than 10 square kilometers of Lebanese territory along the border despite ceasefire requirements for complete withdrawal.

NEXT MEETING SET: President Aoun confirmed the mechanism committee will reconvene on January 7, 2026, providing a timeline for continued diplomatic engagement and accountability on ceasefire implementation progress.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 75/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Diplomatic Momentum. The capital benefits from positive developments following Friday’s Naqoura talks and Thursday’s Paris conference. President Joseph Aoun’s emphasis on displaced resident returns as the priority demonstrates governmental focus on practical humanitarian outcomes rather than abstract diplomatic achievements.

The announcement of February 2026’s international conference to support the Lebanese Armed Forces provides concrete timeline for enhanced military capabilities. This represents significant diplomatic achievement, securing French, Saudi, and American commitment to strengthening LAF as security guarantor in southern Lebanon.

PM Nawaf Salam announced plans to unveil a long-awaited banking law draft, addressing one of the most critical aspects of Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis. The banking sector collapse has devastated Lebanese savings and undermined economic recovery, making comprehensive banking reform essential for stabilization.

Economic activities continue with cautious optimism from diplomatic progress and scheduled international support. The electricity situation shows gradual improvement under governmental authority, while businesses monitor whether diplomatic momentum translates into actual security improvements.

General Haykal’s agreement in Paris to document Hezbollah disarmament progress provides important accountability mechanism, though implementation will determine whether this represents genuine progress or merely procedural commitment without substance.

Key Factor: Multiple diplomatic tracks advancing simultaneously with Paris army conference, Naqoura civilian talks, and banking reform creating positive momentum while 88,000 displaced await actual return conditions.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 71/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Stable with Post-Papal Legacy. The governorate continues benefiting from Pope Leo XIV’s December visit, with Harissa shrine’s Golden Rose honor and Saint Charbel pilgrimage maintaining international attention for Lebanese Christian heritage and religious tourism.

Business operations proceed normally with awareness of diplomatic developments providing hope for broader regional stability. Tourism infrastructure continues supporting both domestic activities and religious pilgrimage, with the papal visit legacy creating lasting positive impacts.

The region maintains its role hosting displaced populations from southern areas. Friday’s Naqoura focus on resident returns offers hope for eventual displacement resolution, though practical security conditions must improve before large-scale returns become feasible.

Infrastructure improvements proceed under stable governmental framework, while the successful papal visit demonstrates Mount Lebanon’s capability to support major international events despite regional challenges.

Key Factor: Post-papal visit stability and religious tourism benefits continuing while diplomatic progress on displaced returns creates hope for eventual normalization despite current security constraints.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 73/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Economic Interest. Tripoli and surrounding areas monitor diplomatic developments regarding potential economic cooperation and reconstruction opportunities. The Naqoura civilian track discussions of economic priorities create possibilities for northern regional benefits.

The port city continues commercial operations with interest in February 2026’s international conference potentially supporting broader Lebanese economic recovery beyond military assistance. Cross-border coordination with Syria remains stable with continued security cooperation.

Economic conditions show gradual improvement under stable governmental framework, while diplomatic engagement possibilities require careful monitoring of how reconstruction and economic cooperation proposals develop into concrete projects.

Infrastructure projects proceed under governmental authority with international support, while the combination of Paris conference commitments and Naqoura economic discussions creates optimism for coordinated international engagement.

Key Factor: Economic cooperation discussions and February army conference creating opportunities while stable security environment enables continued commercial and development activities.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Security Focus. The Syrian border situation remains stable with enhanced Lebanese Armed Forces coordination. The LAF continues effective security operations maintaining sovereignty along northern frontiers during complex diplomatic period.

Cross-border security operations proceed effectively, demonstrating LAF’s ability to maintain comprehensive national security across all regions. The February 2026 international conference promises enhanced LAF capabilities benefiting border security operations.

Humanitarian coordination with Syrian authorities continues normally, while the broader regional dynamics following Assad regime’s fall in December 2024 create new considerations for border management and refugee situations.

The region benefits from governmental stability and LAF presence, with diplomatic developments monitored for potential implications on border security dynamics and regional stability factors.

Key Factor: Border security maintained effectively while February 2026 international LAF support conference promising enhanced capabilities for comprehensive sovereignty establishment.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 77/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Monitoring Disarmament. The valley experiences ongoing attention as LAF operations continue discovering Hezbollah infrastructure. General Haykal’s Paris commitment to document disarmament progress creates accountability framework requiring continued operations and verification.

Agricultural operations continue with security precautions amid ongoing LAF presence establishing governmental authority. The 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, and 58 missiles discovered since September 5 demonstrate scope of disarmament challenges requiring sustained efforts.

International development projects proceed under enhanced security protocols, while the Paris conference framework for supporting Hezbollah disarmament creates international backing for governmental sovereignty establishment efforts.

The region’s strategic importance requires ongoing monitoring as disarmament operations proceed alongside diplomatic engagement creating complex environment balancing security operations with political sensitivities.

Key Factor: LAF disarmament operations continuing with 74 tunnels discovered while Paris conference creating international support framework for comprehensive Hezbollah weapons removal.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 79/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Security Operations Zone. This region experiences particular attention as area with significant Hezbollah presence requiring comprehensive governmental authority establishment. The Paris roadmap for gradual Hezbollah military role reduction has direct implications for regional dynamics.

Infrastructure improvements continue under governmental authority, while today’s relatively quiet period provides respite from recent strike patterns. However, Israeli strikes ongoing against alleged Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon maintain security concerns.

The combination of LAF operations, international support through February conference, and diplomatic engagement creates complex environment requiring careful navigation between disarmament requirements and regional political realities.

Key Factor: Hezbollah disarmament roadmap from Paris creating framework for military role reduction while LAF operations and international support establishing governmental authority gradually.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 67/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Lowest Security Concerns. The coastal governorate maintains stable operations with consistently lowest security index readings. The region benefits from successful papal visit legacy, stable security environment, and ongoing tourism activities.

Tourism infrastructure supports continuing religious pilgrimage to sites featured during Pope Leo XIV’s visit, with Harissa shrine and regional churches experiencing sustained international attention following Golden Rose honor.

Business operations proceed with optimism from diplomatic developments creating hope for broader national stability. The region serves as model for security and prosperity that other Lebanese areas aspire to achieve through conflict resolution.

Key Factor: Stable security environment and post-papal visit benefits providing regional prosperity while diplomatic momentum creating optimism for national-level improvements benefiting all sectors.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Displacement and Occupation. The south remains primary security challenge area with over 88,000 Lebanese displaced and Israel occupying more than 10 square kilometers of Lebanese territory. Friday’s Naqoura meeting emphasized resident return as priority, though practical conditions remain insufficient.

The Lebanese Armed Forces continue operations that have discovered 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, and 58 missiles since September 5. The nearly 10,000 LAF troops deployed along the border maintain sovereignty establishment efforts while the February 2026 international conference promises enhanced capabilities.

Israeli forces have conducted over 1,200 raids and operations in southern Lebanon since the ceasefire, mostly in areas surrounding five strategic border posts Israel continues occupying. The IDF justifies ongoing presence citing incomplete Hezbollah infrastructure dismantling.

The LAF continues working with UNIFIL peacekeepers to establish sovereignty, though UNIFIL’s mandate faces 2027 withdrawal concerns creating urgency for LAF capability enhancement. Today’s relatively quiet period provides respite from recent near-daily Israeli strikes.

President Aoun’s emphasis that resident returns are “entry point for addressing all other details” signals governmental priority on humanitarian outcomes, though Israel’s ongoing occupation and strikes create barriers to safe return conditions.

Key Factor: 88,000 displaced awaiting return conditions while Israel occupies 10+ square kilometers and LAF operations discover 74 tunnels demonstrating comprehensive disarmament efforts despite ongoing violations.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Reconstruction Focus. The governorate continues managing conflict aftermath while monitoring displacement situation affecting neighboring southern areas. Infrastructure restoration proceeds under governmental framework despite ongoing security challenges.

The Naqoura civilian track discussions of reconstruction and economic priorities offer potential pathways for systematic rebuilding, though actual implementation requires sustained international support and security improvements.

Civilian populations balance reconstruction efforts with awareness that 88,000 displaced Lebanese throughout southern regions create massive humanitarian and reconstruction challenges requiring coordinated international assistance beyond February’s army conference.

Key Factor: Reconstruction proceeding amid diplomatic hope while massive displacement and destruction requiring comprehensive international support beyond military assistance.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – DIPLOMATIC TRACKS CONVERGING

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Monitoring:

1. Israeli-Occupied Territory – More than 10 square kilometers along border violating ceasefire terms
2. Displacement Zones – Areas where 88,000 Lebanese await conditions for safe return
3. LAF Disarmament Operations – Regions where 74 tunnels, 175 launchers discovered
4. Five Strategic Border Posts – Israeli-occupied positions inside Lebanese territory
5. Southern Strike Zones – Areas experiencing near-daily Israeli attacks during ceasefire

Priority Level 2 – Diplomatic Focus: 6. Naqoura Meeting Venue – Site of 15th mechanism talks with January 7 follow-up scheduled 7. Reconstruction Planning Areas – Zones discussed in civilian track for rebuilding initiatives 8. LAF Deployment Zones – Nearly 10,000 troops establishing sovereignty south of Litani 9. UNIFIL Operational Areas – Peacekeepers monitoring ceasefire with 2027 mandate concerns 10. Economic Cooperation Zones – Potential future development areas in diplomatic discussions

✅ RELATIVELY STABLE ZONES (WITH CONTINUED VIGILANCE):

Improved Stability Areas:

• Central Beirut – Multiple diplomatic tracks creating positive governmental momentum
• Mount Lebanon Religious Sites – Post-papal visit benefits continuing with tourism growth
• Northern Coastal Areas – Stable operations with economic interest in reconstruction plans
• Keserwan-Jbeil – Consistently lowest security concerns with stable prosperity

⚠️ DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS ASSESSMENT:

15th Naqoura Meeting (December 19):

• Second meeting including civilian representatives from Lebanon and Israel
• Focus on displaced resident returns, reconstruction, and economic priorities
• Military participants providing operational updates and coordination improvements
• Next meeting scheduled January 7, 2026 with concrete timeline

Paris Conference (December 18-19):

• French, Saudi, US officials meeting with Lebanese Army Commander Haykal
• February 2026 international conference announced to support LAF
• Roadmap for Hezbollah disarmament and strengthening Lebanese security forces
• General Haykal agreed to document disarmament progress

Current Status:

• 88,000 Lebanese displaced awaiting safe return conditions
• Israel occupying 10+ square kilometers Lebanese territory
• LAF discovered 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles since September
• Relatively quiet today though near-daily Israeli strikes continuing pattern

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

DIPLOMATIC MOMENTUM BUILDING: Lebanon experiencing positive developments from Friday’s 15th Naqoura mechanism meeting and Thursday’s Paris conference announcing February 2026 international support for Lebanese Armed Forces.

CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT:

• Today’s Status: Relatively quiet period in ongoing violation pattern
• Displaced Populations: 88,000 Lebanese awaiting safe return conditions
• Israeli Occupation: 10+ square kilometers Lebanese territory still held
• LAF Operations: 74 tunnels discovered, 10,000 troops deployed south

RETURN CONDITIONS PRIORITY:

• President Aoun: Emphasizes displaced returns as “entry point for all other details”
• Next Meeting: January 7, 2026 Naqoura session providing accountability timeline
• February Conference: International LAF support creating enhanced security capabilities
• Practical Requirements: Safe conditions requiring Israeli withdrawal and security guarantees

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

DIPLOMATIC PERIOD OPERATIONS:

• Paris Conference: February 2026 international LAF support promising stability improvements
• Reconstruction Focus: Naqoura civilian track discussing economic priorities and rebuilding
• Banking Reform: PM Salam announcing long-awaited draft law addressing economic crisis
• International Engagement: French, Saudi, American support creating confidence

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Monitor how diplomatic momentum translates into actual security improvements
• Assess February conference outcomes for economic stability implications
• Navigate between cautious optimism and realistic awareness of ongoing challenges
• LAF capability enhancement creating conditions for sustained business operations

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY – POST-NAQOURA TALKS:

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS: Diplomatic progress creating optimism while practical security conditions require continued caution, particularly in southern regions with 88,000 displaced and Israeli occupation ongoing.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Southern Areas: Israeli occupation of 10+ square kilometers requiring enhanced caution
• Displacement Zones: Await official clearances before returning to former strike areas
• Central Beirut: Normal operations with stable security environment
• Border Crossings: Standard procedures with LAF maintaining northern sovereignty
• Religious Sites: Mount Lebanon pilgrimage tourism proceeding normally

📊 SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2025 SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Diplomatic Tracks Converging with Concrete Timelines
Naqoura Progress: 15th meeting focusing on resident returns and economic priorities
Paris Achievement: February 2026 international LAF conference announced
Ongoing Challenge: 88,000 displaced, 10+ square kilometers Israeli occupation

Critical Analysis: Sunday, December 21, 2025, finds Lebanon experiencing rare alignment of positive diplomatic developments creating cautious optimism for sustained progress toward ceasefire implementation and regional stability.

Friday’s 15th Naqoura mechanism meeting represented significant advancement, with civilian participants focusing on practical humanitarian outcomes: safe resident returns, reconstruction advancement, and economic priority addressing. This pragmatic approach contrasts with earlier meetings’ theoretical discussions, demonstrating diplomatic maturation and focus on concrete deliverables.

President Joseph Aoun’s post-meeting emphasis that displaced resident returns constitute the “entry point for addressing all other details” demonstrates governmental prioritization of humanitarian outcomes over diplomatic process achievements. The estimated 88,000 Lebanese displaced from southern regions require safe conditions before returns become feasible, necessitating Israeli withdrawal, security guarantees, and unexploded ordnance clearance.

Thursday’s Paris conference yielded concrete commitment: an international conference in February 2026 to support the Lebanese Armed Forces. This gathering, bringing together French, Saudi, and American support alongside other international partners, aims to strengthen LAF as guarantor of security south of the Litani River. General Rudolphe Haykal’s participation and reported agreement to document Hezbollah disarmament progress creates accountability framework.

The Paris roadmap addresses one of the ceasefire’s most challenging aspects: Hezbollah’s gradual military role reduction. The international community’s willingness to provide political, financial, and military support for this process demonstrates recognition that successful ceasefire implementation requires more than Lebanese governmental will—it demands resources, capabilities, and international backing for comprehensive disarmament operations.

The Lebanese Armed Forces’ documented progress provides foundation for international confidence. Since September 5, LAF operations have discovered 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, and 58 missiles in former Hezbollah strongholds. Nearly 10,000 LAF troops deployed along the southern border work to establish sovereignty while managing massive unexploded ordnance challenges from recent conflict.

However, significant obstacles remain. Israel continues occupying more than 10 square kilometers of Lebanese territory along the border, maintaining five strategic hilltop positions despite ceasefire requirements for complete withdrawal. The IDF justifies ongoing presence citing incomplete Hezbollah infrastructure dismantling, creating circular reasoning: Lebanese disarmament cannot proceed fully while Israel occupies territory, yet Israel refuses withdrawal citing incomplete disarmament.

Israeli forces have conducted over 1,200 raids and operations in southern Lebanon since the ceasefire, mostly surrounding the five occupied posts. Combined with hundreds of airstrikes throughout the ceasefire period, this military activity demonstrates systematic pattern of violations undermining agreement implementation.

Today’s relatively quiet period provides respite from recent near-daily Israeli strikes, though the pattern of violations continues. The Gaza ceasefire’s relative stability, with Israeli forces having pulled back to the “yellow line,” creates regional dynamic where Gaza implementation potentially influences Lebanon expectations and Israeli military bandwidth allocation.

The Naqoura meeting’s scheduling of January 7, 2026 as the next session provides concrete accountability timeline. This three-week interval allows assessment of whether current diplomatic momentum translates into practical improvements: displaced returns beginning, Israeli withdrawal progress, LAF capability enhancement from international support mobilization.

The civilian track’s focus on economic priorities and reconstruction represents important expansion beyond purely military considerations. Economic cooperation discussions, while viewed skeptically by many Lebanese given ongoing occupation and violations, could potentially create stakeholder interests in sustained peace if implemented genuinely rather than as diplomatic cover for continued security dominance.

PM Nawaf Salam’s announcement of forthcoming banking law draft addresses Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, one of the worst since the 19th century according to World Bank assessments. The banking sector collapse devastated Lebanese savings, with the pound devalued by 90% and inflation exceeding 200%. Comprehensive banking reform remains essential for economic recovery enabling sustained stability.

UNIFIL’s mandate faces 2027 withdrawal concerns, creating urgency for LAF capability enhancement. The February 2026 international conference’s timing becomes critical: providing comprehensive LAF support enabling peacekeepers’ eventual transition while maintaining security guarantees becomes essential for sustained sovereignty establishment.

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea’s criticism of what he characterizes as “collusion” between President Aoun, Speaker Berri, and PM Salam demonstrates ongoing domestic political tensions. His warning against a “troika” controlling Lebanese governance reflects opposition concerns about power concentration, though his criticisms occur against backdrop of governmental diplomatic achievements and LAF operational progress.

Hezbollah’s position remains complex. While the group condemned earlier direct civilian talks as betrayal, the ongoing diplomatic engagement proceeds with governmental authority. The Paris roadmap for gradual Hezbollah military role reduction will test whether international support enables Lebanese governmental sovereignty establishment despite group’s resistance, or whether political realities require negotiated arrangements preserving some Hezbollah influence.

International Dimensions: The convergence of French, Saudi, and American support in Paris demonstrates renewed international engagement in Lebanese stability. This trilateral coordination, particularly with the Trump administration’s January 2025 inauguration bringing new Middle East approaches, creates opportunities for sustained diplomatic and material support.

Regional Context: The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria in December 2024 introduced new regional dynamics affecting Lebanon’s political landscape and security calculations. Hezbollah’s loss of its Syrian supply route and strategic depth creates vulnerabilities the group must navigate, while Lebanon manages complex relationship with new Syrian authorities.

Historical Perspective: The November 2024 ceasefire ended 14 months of hostilities that killed more than 4,000 Lebanese, displaced 1.2 million at peak, and caused approximately $11 billion in destruction. The current 88,000 displaced represents significant reduction from peak numbers, though safe return conditions remain insufficient for comprehensive population restoration.

Long-term Prospects: The convergence of multiple diplomatic tracks—Naqoura mechanism meetings, Paris LAF conference, banking reform initiatives, reconstruction planning—creates rare alignment of positive developments. However, translating diplomatic momentum into practical security improvements requires addressing Israeli occupation, enabling displaced returns, completing Hezbollah disarmament, and securing sustained international support.

Success depends on whether Israel genuinely commits to withdrawal and violation cessation, Lebanon continues LAF disarmament operations demonstrating commitment to sovereignty establishment, international community delivers promised support through February conference and beyond, and Hezbollah accepts governmental authority despite military role reduction.

The January 7 next Naqoura meeting and February international LAF conference provide concrete timelines for assessing whether current optimism translates into measurable progress or represents merely procedural diplomacy without substantive improvements.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS PERIOD SERVICES

🤝 MULTIPLE DIPLOMATIC TRACKS – COMPREHENSIVE PROTECTION SUPPORT

CIS Security provides professional services supporting Lebanon during convergence of diplomatic initiatives including Friday’s 15th Naqoura mechanism meeting, Thursday’s Paris LAF conference announcement, and ongoing ceasefire implementation efforts creating cautious optimism for sustained progress.

DIPLOMATIC PERIOD SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

Naqoura Meeting Support:

• Venue Security – Professional coordination for mechanism sessions and follow-up meetings
• January 7 Planning – Advance preparation for next scheduled diplomatic engagement
• Participant Protection – Security for Lebanese delegation including civilian representatives
• International Liaison – Coordination with US, French, UNIFIL security services

LAF Enhancement Support:

• February Conference Planning – Security coordination for international LAF support gathering
• Disarmament Documentation – Professional services supporting General Haykal’s accountability commitment
• Training Facility Security – Protection for LAF capability enhancement programs
• International Coordination – Liaison with French, Saudi, American military assistance programs

Displacement Return Services:

• Conditions Assessment – Professional evaluation of safe return feasibility for 88,000 displaced
• Return Route Security – Protection for population movements back to southern regions
• Resettlement Coordination – Security supporting reconstruction and resident return initiatives
• Unexploded Ordnance Awareness – Safety protocols for returning populations

CONTINUING SECURITY OPERATIONS:

Southern Operations:

• Professional support for LAF operations discovering 74 tunnels and weapons
• Security coordination in areas with 10,000 troops establishing sovereignty
• Monitoring of Israeli-occupied 10+ square kilometers requiring vigilance
• Partnership with UNIFIL peacekeepers on ceasefire monitoring

Reconstruction Security:

• Protection services for planning and implementation of rebuilding initiatives
• Economic cooperation zone security for potential development projects
• Infrastructure restoration security enabling displaced return conditions
• International development project protection

Business Continuity:

• Commercial operations security during diplomatic transition period
• Tourism sector protection benefiting from post-papal visit legacy
• Banking sector security supporting economic reform implementation
• Transportation security enabling continued commercial activities

📞 DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS COORDINATION

SECURITY HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional protection during convergence of multiple diplomatic initiatives

DIPLOMATIC VENUE SECURITY: Naqoura mechanism meetings and future sessions
LAF CONFERENCE SUPPORT: February 2026 international gathering coordination
DISPLACEMENT RETURN SERVICES: Safe conditions assessment and population movement protection

Specialized Service Centers:

• Diplomatic Protection: Naqoura meetings, Paris conference follow-up, international engagement
• LAF Coordination: Partnership supporting disarmament operations and capability enhancement
• Return Management: Security for 88,000 displaced population movement planning
• Economic Development: Reconstruction and cooperation zone protection services

During Lebanon’s diplomatic progress period with 15th Naqoura meeting, Paris LAF conference announcement, and January 7 follow-up scheduled, CIS Security provides comprehensive professional services supporting governmental initiatives, protecting displaced populations awaiting returns, coordinating LAF enhancement efforts, and enabling economic development discussions while maintaining emergency response capabilities throughout Lebanese territory.

⚠️ DIPLOMATIC CONVERGENCE OPERATIONAL NOTICE

NAQOURA PROGRESS: 15th mechanism meeting Friday focused on displaced resident returns, reconstruction, and economic priorities with civilian participants advancing practical humanitarian outcomes beyond abstract diplomatic process.

PARIS CONFERENCE: International gathering announced for February 2026 to support Lebanese Armed Forces with French, Saudi, American coordination creating enhanced LAF capabilities as security guarantor south of Litani River.

PRESIDENT AOUN PRIORITY: Emphasizes 88,000 displaced Lebanese returns as “entry point for addressing all other details” demonstrating governmental humanitarian focus with next Naqoura meeting January 7, 2026.

DISARMAMENT PROGRESS: LAF operations discovered 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles since September 5 while General Haykal agreed to document progress creating accountability framework for international support.

ONGOING CHALLENGES: Israel occupies 10+ square kilometers Lebanese territory, 88,000 remain displaced, near-daily strikes continuing though today relatively quiet providing respite from recent violation patterns.

PROFESSIONAL SERVICES: CIS Security provides comprehensive protection supporting diplomatic initiatives, LAF enhancement coordination, displaced return planning, reconstruction security, and economic development protection while maintaining emergency capabilities throughout Lebanese territory.

CONCRETE TIMELINES: January 7 next Naqoura meeting and February 2026 LAF conference providing accountability milestones for assessing whether diplomatic momentum translates into practical security improvements and humanitarian outcomes.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s diplomatic convergence period with 15th Naqoura mechanism meeting advancing resident return focus, Paris conference announcing February 2026 international LAF support, and January 7 follow-up scheduled creating concrete accountability timelines, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise in diplomatic protection, LAF coordination, displaced population management, and comprehensive security services. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide professional support for governmental diplomatic initiatives, LAF disarmament operations discovering 74 tunnels, safe return planning for 88,000 displaced Lebanese, reconstruction security, and economic development protection. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting Lebanon’s diplomatic progress while managing ongoing security challenges under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership.

CIS Security Diplomatic Convergence Services:

• Naqoura Mechanism Support – Professional security for 15th meeting and January 7 follow-up session
• Paris Conference Coordination – February 2026 international LAF gathering preparation and security
• LAF Enhancement Partnership – Support for disarmament operations discovering 74 tunnels, weapons
• Displacement Return Management – Safe conditions assessment and 88,000 population movement planning
• Reconstruction Security – Protection for rebuilding initiatives and economic cooperation zones
• Banking Reform Support – Security for economic crisis resolution and financial sector operations
• International Liaison – Coordination with French, Saudi, American, UNIFIL security services

Why Choose CIS During Diplomatic Convergence: ✓ 35+ Years National Experience – Proven security during Lebanon’s most complex diplomatic periods
✓ Diplomatic Protection Expertise – Professional services for Naqoura meetings and international conferences
✓ LAF Coordination Excellence – Partnership supporting 74 tunnels discovered and sovereignty establishment
✓ Humanitarian Focus – Displacement return planning and safe conditions assessment capabilities
✓ Reconstruction Experience – Security enabling rebuilding initiatives and economic development
✓ Comprehensive Coverage – Full-spectrum protection across all Lebanese territories and situations

Security Services: 📞 24/7 Hotline: +961-3-539900
💬 All Services: Diplomatic, LAF coordination, displacement return, reconstruction, economic development security
🌐 Comprehensive Protection: www.cissecurity.net – Professional services throughout Lebanon
📧 Immediate Response: Emergency capabilities for any security requirements or incidents

Serving all Lebanese governorates during diplomatic convergence period with professional security supporting Naqoura mechanism meetings, Paris LAF conference preparation, displaced return planning, reconstruction initiatives, and economic development while maintaining comprehensive emergency response capabilities. CIS Security – Your trusted partner navigating Lebanon between diplomatic opportunities and practical security improvements under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership during this critical period requiring translation of diplomatic momentum into concrete humanitarian outcomes and sustained stability.

📈 DIPLOMATIC TRACKS CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS

NAQOURA MECHANISM – 15TH MEETING (DECEMBER 19):

Civilian Track Progress:

• Resident Returns: Priority focus on enabling 88,000 displaced Lebanese safe return
• Reconstruction: Advancing rebuilding initiatives in conflict-affected regions
• Economic Priorities: Discussing development opportunities and cooperation possibilities
• Concrete Timeline: January 7, 2026 next meeting providing accountability interval

Military Track Updates:

• Operational Coordination: IDF and LAF providing updates on deployment and activities
• LAF Strengthening: Agreement on importance of enhanced Lebanese army capabilities
• Mechanism Deepening: Finding ways to increase military-to-military coordination
• Security Gains: Emphasis on reinforcing progress through sustained cooperation

Key Participants:

• Lebanon: Diplomat Simon Karam leading civilian delegation
• Israel: National Security Council official Yossi Dreznin representing government
• United States: Special Representative Morgan Ortagus chairing mechanism
• France: Military representative providing coordination support
• UNIFIL: Peacekeepers monitoring and facilitating implementation

PARIS CONFERENCE – ROADMAP MEETING (DECEMBER 18-19):

Army Support Framework:

• February 2026 Conference: International gathering to support Lebanese Armed Forces
• Trilateral Coordination: French, Saudi, American leadership organizing support
• Capability Enhancement: Political, financial, military assistance for LAF
• Security Guarantor: Strengthening LAF as primary authority south of Litani River

Disarmament Roadmap:

• Hezbollah Role Reduction: Gradual decrease in group’s military presence and capabilities
• Documentation Commitment: General Haykal agreed to track disarmament progress
• International Support: Comprehensive assistance enabling governmental sovereignty
• Accountability Framework: Regular reporting and verification mechanisms

Strategic Objectives:

• Ceasefire Implementation: Supporting Lebanese commitments under November 2024 agreement
• Sovereignty Establishment: LAF authority throughout southern Lebanon
• UNIFIL Transition: Preparing for potential 2027 peacekeepers mandate expiration
• Regional Stability: Contributing to broader Middle East peace initiatives

CONVERGENCE ASSESSMENT:

Mutually Reinforcing Tracks: The Naqoura mechanism’s civilian focus on practical humanitarian outcomes (returns, reconstruction, economic development) complements Paris conference’s military track emphasizing LAF capability enhancement and Hezbollah disarmament. Together, these initiatives create comprehensive framework addressing both security requirements and humanitarian needs.

Timeline Alignment:

• January 7, 2026: Next Naqoura meeting assessing progress on resident returns
• February 2026: International LAF conference delivering promised support
• Throughout 2026: Continued mechanism meetings monitoring implementation
• 2027 Consideration: UNIFIL mandate expiration requiring LAF readiness

Critical Success Factors:

1. Israeli Withdrawal: Complete pullback from 10+ square kilometers occupied territory
2. Violation Cessation: End to near-daily strikes enabling safe civilian returns
3. LAF Capability: Enhanced through February conference delivering resources
4. Hezbollah Disarmament: Continued operations beyond 74 tunnels already discovered
5. International Support: Sustained engagement beyond conference commitments
6. Displaced Returns: Safe conditions enabling 88,000 Lebanese homecoming
7. Reconstruction Funding: Resources for rebuilding conflict-damaged regions
8. Economic Cooperation: Genuine development rather than diplomatic rhetoric

Obstacles Remaining:

• Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory violating ceasefire
• Pattern of hundreds of strikes despite diplomatic engagement
• Hezbollah resistance to complete military role elimination
• 88,000 displaced requiring safe conditions before returns
• Unexploded ordnance clearance challenges throughout south
• Political divisions within Lebanon over diplomatic direction
• Resource constraints requiring sustained international funding
• Regional instability affecting Lebanese security calculations

🌍 REGIONAL CONTEXT & DEVELOPMENTS

GAZA CEASEFIRE IMPACT:

Current Status: The Gaza ceasefire is broadly holding despite sporadic clashes, with Israeli forces having pulled back to the “yellow line.” This relative stability in Gaza creates regional dynamic potentially affecting Lebanon situation through several mechanisms:

Lebanon Implications:

• Military Bandwidth: Israeli forces less engaged in Gaza potentially available for Lebanon operations
• Diplomatic Precedent: Gaza ceasefire implementation potentially influencing Lebanon expectations
• Regional Stability: Reduced overall conflict intensity creating environment for peace initiatives
• International Attention: Diplomatic resources available for Lebanese situation alongside Gaza focus

SYRIA SITUATION POST-ASSAD:

December 2024 Regime Change: The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria introduced significant regional dynamics affecting Lebanon’s security environment and political calculations:

Lebanese Impacts:

• Hezbollah Vulnerability: Loss of Syrian supply route and strategic depth
• Border Dynamics: New Syrian authorities requiring different coordination approaches
• Refugee Considerations: Potential for Syrian returns affecting Lebanese demographics
• Regional Realignment: Shifting power balances affecting Lebanese political landscape

Current Border Status: Lebanese-Syrian border remains stable with enhanced LAF coordination maintaining security. Cross-border humanitarian coordination continues normally despite Syria’s political transition, demonstrating Lebanese adaptability to regional changes.

UNIFIL MANDATE CONSIDERATIONS:

2027 Expiration Concerns: The UN peacekeeping force’s mandate faces potential non-renewal in 2027, creating urgency for Lebanese Armed Forces capability enhancement:

Critical Timeline:

• Current: UNIFIL maintaining active ceasefire monitoring role
• February 2026: International LAF conference delivering enhanced capabilities
• Throughout 2026: LAF assuming increasing security responsibilities
• 2027 Decision: Potential UNIFIL withdrawal requiring Lebanese readiness

Transition Requirements:

• LAF must demonstrate comprehensive capability for southern security guarantee
• International support enabling equipment, training, personnel expansion
• Political consensus supporting LAF as sole security authority
• Hezbollah disarmament sufficient to enable LAF exclusive control

💼 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS & BANKING REFORM

PM SALAM’S BANKING LAW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Long-Awaited Reform: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced plans to unveil banking law draft addressing Lebanon’s devastating financial crisis. The banking sector collapse remains central to Lebanon’s economic catastrophe, making comprehensive reform essential for recovery.

Economic Crisis Context:

• Currency Collapse: Lebanese pound devalued by 90% from pre-crisis levels
• Savings Devastation: Depositors unable to access funds due to informal capital controls
• Inflation Spiral: Over 200% inflation destroying purchasing power
• World Bank Assessment: Worst economic crisis since 19th century

Banking Reform Imperatives:

• Depositor Protection: Framework for returning savings to Lebanese citizens
• Capital Controls: Formal legal structure replacing informal banking restrictions
• Sector Restructuring: Addressing insolvent banks and consolidation requirements
• International Standards: Compliance enabling foreign investment and assistance

Political Challenges:

• Vested Interests: Banking sector resistance to accountability and restructuring
• Depositor Demands: Popular pressure for full savings recovery
• International Conditions: IMF and donors requiring comprehensive reform
• Implementation Timeline: Converting draft law into actual operational changes

RECONSTRUCTION FINANCING:

Naqoura Civilian Track: Economic priorities discussions in mechanism meetings exploring reconstruction financing possibilities including:

Potential Funding Sources:

• International Donors: Conference commitments beyond LAF military support
• Economic Cooperation: Israeli-Lebanese joint projects in border areas
• Arab Support: Saudi and regional partners providing reconstruction assistance
• IMF Framework: Potential agreement unlocking international financing

Reconstruction Needs:

• Housing: Tens of thousands of destroyed or damaged units requiring rebuilding
• Infrastructure: Roads, bridges, utilities, public facilities restoration
• Agriculture: Land clearance, irrigation, equipment replacement for farmers
• Commercial: Business rebuilding enabling economic activity resumption

Timeline Realism: Comprehensive reconstruction requires multi-year commitment with sustained international support. February 2026 conference focus on LAF suggests military assistance prioritized over reconstruction financing initially, potentially delaying comprehensive rebuilding efforts.

📅 CRITICAL UPCOMING DATES & MILESTONES

IMMEDIATE (DECEMBER 2025 – JANUARY 2026):

December 25, 2025 – Christmas:

• Major Christian holiday observance throughout Lebanon
• Religious celebrations benefiting from post-papal visit momentum
• Tourism activity at Harissa shrine and Christian sites
• Security coordination for holiday gatherings and events

January 1, 2026 – New Year:

• Traditional Lebanese New Year celebrations nationwide
• Hopeful outlook from diplomatic convergence momentum
• Continued monitoring of ceasefire implementation progress
• Assessment of December developments’ impact on stability

January 7, 2026 – 16th Naqoura Meeting:

• CRITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY DEADLINE
• Assessment of progress on displaced resident returns
• Evaluation of Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories
• LAF disarmament operations progress reporting
• Economic cooperation and reconstruction advancement review

SHORT-TERM (FEBRUARY – MARCH 2026):

February 2026 – International LAF Conference:

• MAJOR DIPLOMATIC GATHERING
• French, Saudi, American, and international partners convening
• Comprehensive LAF support package delivery
• Political, financial, military assistance commitments
• Hezbollah disarmament roadmap implementation framework

Post-Conference Period:

• Implementation of LAF support commitments
• Enhanced capability deployment to southern Lebanon
• Continued disarmament operations with international backing
• Assessment of conference impact on security improvements

MEDIUM-TERM (2026 THROUGHOUT):

Quarterly Naqoura Meetings:

• Regular mechanism sessions monitoring ceasefire implementation
• Civilian track advancing reconstruction and economic priorities
• Military coordination improving LAF-IDF operational understanding
• Accountability for commitments from all parties

LAF Capability Enhancement:

• Training programs implementing conference commitments
• Equipment delivery improving operational effectiveness
• Personnel expansion increasing southern presence beyond 10,000
• Infrastructure development supporting sustained operations

Displaced Population Returns:

• Gradual safe return enabling as security conditions improve
• Reconstruction proceeding in parallel with population restoration
• Unexploded ordnance clearance enabling safe habitation
• International support for returnee assistance and rebuilding

LONG-TERM (2027 AND BEYOND):

UNIFIL Mandate Decision:

• 2027 expiration requiring renewal or transition determination
• LAF capability assessment determining readiness for sole responsibility
• International community evaluation of ceasefire implementation success
• Potential peacekeepers withdrawal or mandate modification

Comprehensive Peace Prospects:

• Regional settlement framework potentially including Lebanon
• Two-state solution for Palestine creating broader peace context
• Lebanese-Israeli relationship normalization possibilities
• Economic integration transforming border areas into cooperation zones

🎯 SUCCESS METRICS & EVALUATION FRAMEWORK

IMMEDIATE SUCCESS INDICATORS (JANUARY 7 MEETING):

Displaced Returns:

• ✅ Target: Begin safe returns for portion of 88,000 displaced Lebanese
• ✅ Measurement: Number of families safely returning to southern homes
• ✅ Requirements: Israeli withdrawal, security guarantees, ordnance clearance

Israeli Withdrawal:

• ✅ Target: Progress on evacuating 10+ square kilometers occupied territory
• ✅ Measurement: Square kilometers returned to Lebanese sovereignty
• ✅ Requirements: Coordination on security arrangements and LAF deployment

Violations Reduction:

• ✅ Target: Significant decrease in Israeli strikes and operations
• ✅ Measurement: Weekly/monthly violation counts compared to baseline
• ✅ Requirements: Genuine ceasefire implementation commitment from Israel

LAF Operations:

• ✅ Target: Additional tunnel and weapons discoveries beyond 74 tunnels found
• ✅ Measurement: Documented disarmament progress with verification
• ✅ Requirements: Continued operations, international support, Hezbollah non-interference

FEBRUARY CONFERENCE SUCCESS INDICATORS:

International Commitments:

• ✅ Target: Concrete pledges for LAF financial and military support
• ✅ Measurement: Dollar amounts, equipment quantities, training programs committed
• ✅ Requirements: Donor coordination, Lebanese governmental implementation capacity

Roadmap Clarity:

• ✅ Target: Specific timelines for Hezbollah disarmament milestones
• ✅ Measurement: Documented phases with accountability mechanisms
• ✅ Requirements: Lebanese governmental commitment, international verification

Reconstruction Financing:

• ✅ Target: Pledges beyond military assistance for civilian rebuilding
• ✅ Measurement: Funding commitments for housing, infrastructure, agriculture
• ✅ Requirements: Donor willingness, Lebanese absorption capacity, coordination frameworks

2026 ANNUAL SUCCESS INDICATORS:

Complete Israeli Withdrawal:

• ✅ Target: Full evacuation of all occupied Lebanese territory
• ✅ Measurement: Zero Israeli military presence inside Lebanon
• ✅ Requirements: Security arrangements satisfactory to both parties

Major Displaced Returns:

• ✅ Target: Majority of 88,000 displaced returning safely home
• ✅ Measurement: Population restoration percentage to pre-conflict levels
• ✅ Requirements: Security, reconstruction, ordnance clearance, services restoration

Comprehensive LAF Authority:

• ✅ Target: Lebanese army as sole security force south of Litani
• ✅ Measurement: LAF control of all southern areas, Hezbollah military role eliminated
• ✅ Requirements: International support, Hezbollah cooperation, political consensus

Violation Cessation:

• ✅ Target: End to systematic pattern of Israeli ceasefire violations
• ✅ Measurement: Zero or minimal violations compared to hundreds currently
• ✅ Requirements: Genuine Israeli ceasefire commitment, accountability mechanisms

Reconstruction Progress:

• ✅ Target: Significant rebuilding of destroyed housing and infrastructure
• ✅ Measurement: Percentage of 13,981+ destroyed units rebuilt or under construction
• ✅ Requirements: Financing, security enabling construction, displaced population return

🔮 SCENARIO PLANNING & STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO (30% PROBABILITY):

Characteristics:

• January 7 meeting shows measurable progress on returns and withdrawal
• February conference delivers comprehensive LAF support commitments
• Israeli violations decrease significantly throughout 2026
• Majority of displaced return safely by year-end 2026
• Hezbollah accepts military role reduction cooperating with government
• Reconstruction proceeds with sustained international financing
• 2027 UNIFIL transition to LAF sole authority proceeds smoothly

Enabling Factors:

• Genuine Israeli commitment to ceasefire implementation
• Sustained international support beyond conference rhetoric
• Lebanese political consensus supporting governmental sovereignty
• Regional stability from Gaza ceasefire and Syria transition
• Economic recovery from banking reform and reconstruction

Lebanon Outcome: Comprehensive ceasefire implementation enabling reconstruction, displaced returns, economic recovery, and sustained stability with LAF as security guarantor and international confidence in Lebanese sovereignty.

REALISTIC SCENARIO (50% PROBABILITY):

Characteristics:

• Incremental progress on displaced returns with partial Israeli withdrawal
• February conference delivers support but implementation gradual
• Israeli violations continue but at reduced frequency
• Partial displaced returns throughout 2026 with security challenges
• Hezbollah accepts limited military role reduction with political role preserved
• Reconstruction proceeds slowly with funding constraints
• 2027 UNIFIL mandate extended rather than full transition

Enabling Factors:

• Mixed Israeli compliance with tactical violations continuing
• International support delivered but insufficient for comprehensive needs
• Lebanese political management balancing sovereignty and Hezbollah accommodation
• Regional instability requiring continued international peacekeeping
• Economic challenges limiting reconstruction and recovery pace

Lebanon Outcome: Gradual improvement from current crisis with persistent challenges requiring sustained management. Fragile stability dependent on continued international engagement and all parties’ restraint.

PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO (20% PROBABILITY):

Characteristics:

• January 7 meeting shows minimal progress frustrating diplomatic momentum
• February conference delivers limited commitments with implementation delays
• Israeli violations continue or escalate with major strikes
• Displaced unable to return due to ongoing security threats
• Hezbollah rejects disarmament roadmap with political confrontation
• Reconstruction stalled due to security and financing challenges
• Escalation cycle returning with ceasefire collapse risk

Enabling Factors:

• Israeli preference for military dominance over diplomatic solutions
• International attention shifting to other regional crises
• Lebanese political crisis over governmental direction and Hezbollah role
• Regional escalation involving Lebanon in broader conflicts
• Economic collapse accelerating despite reform attempts

Lebanon Outcome: Return to crisis conditions with ceasefire collapse, renewed hostilities, continued displacement, reconstruction failure, and sustained instability requiring international intervention to prevent humanitarian catastrophe.

CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Professional security intelligence for informed decision-making during Lebanon’s diplomatic convergence period with concrete accountability timelines. Updated Sunday, December 21, 2025, based on comprehensive research and real-time monitoring of Naqoura mechanism meetings, Paris LAF conference developments, and ceasefire implementation progress.