🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Saturday, Dec 27 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 85/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ TENSE STABILITY – CEASEFIRE UNDER STRAIN WITH CONTINUED VIOLATIONS

🚨 CURRENT SITUATION: ONGOING STRIKES AMID DIPLOMATIC OPTIMISM

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2025:

UNIFIL PEACEKEEPER WOUNDED: UN force in Lebanon says peacekeeper wounded by Israeli fire. Heavy machine gunfire from Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) positions south of the Blue Line impacted close to a UNIFIL patrol inspecting a roadblock in the village of Bastarra. The sound of the gunfire and an explosion left one peacekeeper slightly injured with ear concussion. Another patrol carrying out a routine operational task also reported machine gunfire from the Israeli side in immediate proximity to their position in Kfarshuba.

RECENT DEADLY STRIKES: Israel says member of Iran’s IRGC among several killed in Lebanon strikes. Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) said the drone strike on Thursday hit a vehicle on the Hosh al-Sayyed Ali road in the Hermel district, killing two people. The Israeli army said Hussein Mahmoud Marshad al-Jawhari, an alleged member of the IRGC’s Quds Force, was killed in the Ansariyah area of southern Lebanon.

ONGOING VIOLATIONS: Israeli strikes continue in southern and eastern Lebanon despite a ceasefire. Over the past week, the IDF said that its 91st Division killed four alleged militants in southern Lebanon. Israel has killed more than 300 people in Lebanon since last year’s ceasefire, including about 127 civilians, according to the United Nations.

DIPLOMATIC OPTIMISM: Lebanese president says diplomacy with Israel is pushing back ‘specter of war’. President Joseph Aoun expressed optimism Thursday that diplomatic efforts will prevent Israel from embarking on another major military operation in Lebanon. “Diplomatic contacts to push back the specter of war have not stopped,” Aoun said. “I tell you that the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon, and matters will head in a positive direction, God willing.”

DIRECT TALKS: Last week, Israeli and Lebanese officials met directly in the southern Lebanon town of Naqoura, the second such meeting this month, as the two enemy states look to maintain the year-old ceasefire.

DISARMAMENT PROGRESS: Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said last week that the country was close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River, and that the government was now moving towards confiscating weapons north of the Litani, “based on the plan prepared by the Lebanese army pursuant to a mandate from the government.”

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION INVOLVEMENT: Report: Trump to ask Netanyahu to continue diplomacy with Lebanon, indicating continued U.S. engagement in ceasefire implementation.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 79/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Diplomatic Progress. The capital operates under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s leadership while managing the complex balance of diplomatic engagement amid ongoing ceasefire violations. Lebanon is navigating multiple concurrent challenges amidst signs of tentative stability. After a two-year political vacuum, the country has a new president, Joseph Aoun, and a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, which won a parliamentary confidence vote in February 2025.

President Aoun’s Christmas Day optimism that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon” demonstrates governmental confidence in diplomatic efforts despite ongoing Israeli strikes. The direct meetings between Israeli and Lebanese officials in Naqoura represent unprecedented diplomatic engagement, with the second such meeting this month indicating sustained commitment to dialogue.

Prime Minister Salam’s recent statement that Lebanon is “close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River” and moving to confiscate weapons north of the Litani demonstrates significant governmental progress on ceasefire implementation, though challenges remain.

Reports that Trump will ask Netanyahu to continue diplomacy with Lebanon indicate sustained U.S. engagement in maintaining the ceasefire framework and supporting Lebanese governmental efforts to implement disarmament obligations.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects continued vigilance while diplomatic activities proceed with functional international cooperation. The electricity situation continues gradual improvement under stable governmental authority.

Key Factor: Presidential optimism and direct diplomatic engagement advancing despite ongoing ceasefire violations requiring continued governmental commitment to implementation and international coordination.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 75/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Cautious Optimism. The governorate benefits from overall diplomatic progress while remaining aware of ongoing regional violations. President Aoun’s Christmas Day meeting with Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, who called for praying for the success of negotiations and the Lebanese Army’s success in collecting “illegal weapons,” demonstrates religious and governmental alignment on ceasefire implementation.

Business operations continue with improved confidence as diplomatic progress suggests reduced risk of major escalation. Tourism sector shows gradual recovery indicators as regional stability improves through sustained diplomatic engagement.

The region continues serving as destination for populations returning to southern areas as security conditions gradually improve under ceasefire framework, though caution remains necessary due to ongoing violations.

Infrastructure improvements proceed under governmental framework with international support, while diplomatic progress creates positive environment for continued development and reconstruction activities.

Key Factor: Diplomatic progress creating business confidence and return opportunities while religious leadership supports governmental disarmament efforts.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 77/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Regional Stability. Tripoli and surrounding areas benefit from overall ceasefire maintenance and diplomatic engagement, though remain aware of ongoing violations affecting regional security perceptions.

Economic conditions show steady improvement as diplomatic progress reduces escalation risks and supports business planning. The port city experiences continued commercial activity with improved confidence in regional stability under sustained ceasefire framework.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable with continued coordination on security and humanitarian matters, while diplomatic progress creates positive environment for regional cooperation and development.

Infrastructure projects proceed with international support as stable governmental framework and diplomatic engagement support systematic improvements in power, water, and transportation systems.

Key Factor: Regional economic improvement and infrastructure development proceeding under stable ceasefire framework despite ongoing violation concerns.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 78/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Security Maintenance. The Syrian border situation remains stable with continued Lebanese Armed Forces coordination, benefiting from overall regional stability under ceasefire framework.

Cross-border security operations continue effectively with international support, while humanitarian coordination proceeds normally. The LAF’s role in border security benefits from governmental stability and international confidence in ceasefire implementation.

The region’s distance from most ceasefire violations provides relative stability, while diplomatic progress creates positive environment for border security operations and cross-border cooperation activities.

Key Factor: Stable border security operations benefiting from overall ceasefire maintenance and diplomatic progress despite regional violations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Ongoing Incidents. The valley experiences direct impact from recent violations, including the Thursday drone strike in Hermel district that killed two people, one identified as alleged IRGC member Hussein Mahmoud Marshad al-Jawhari.

Agricultural operations continue with security precautions, while recent strikes in the area demonstrate ongoing risks despite overall ceasefire framework. The government’s progress on disarmament implementation creates complex dynamics as military operations continue targeting alleged security threats.

International development projects proceed cautiously, with recent incidents demonstrating that security challenges persist despite diplomatic progress and governmental disarmament efforts.

Key Factor: Recent deadly strike in Hermel demonstrating ongoing security risks while governmental disarmament progress continues creating complex operational environment.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 83/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Direct Targeting. This region experienced Thursday’s deadly drone strike on the Hosh al-Sayyed Ali road in the Hermel district, killing two people including alleged IRGC member, demonstrating continued targeting despite ceasefire arrangements.

Infrastructure improvements continue under governmental authority, though recent strikes demonstrate ongoing security risks requiring enhanced vigilance. The region’s strategic significance makes it focus for continued operations targeting alleged security threats.

The government’s disarmament progress creates changing security dynamics, while recent strikes demonstrate that military operations continue despite overall ceasefire framework and diplomatic engagement.

Key Factor: Recent deadly strike demonstrating continued targeting of security threats while governmental authority and disarmament progress continue creating transition challenges.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 73/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Tourism Recovery. The coastal governorate benefits significantly from diplomatic progress and improved regional stability perceptions. President Aoun’s optimism that “the specter of war has been pushed away” creates positive environment for tourism recovery.

Tourism sector shows continued gradual recovery with domestic and regional visitors increasing as ceasefire maintains despite violations. Business operations expand with confidence in sustained stability under diplomatic framework.

Infrastructure improvements proceed normally, while diplomatic progress and governmental stability create favorable environment for continued economic development and tourism sector growth.

Key Factor: Tourism recovery accelerating under diplomatic progress and presidential optimism while relative security creates favorable business environment.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Monitoring Required. The south experiences highest tension levels with continued incidents including UNIFIL peacekeeper wounded by Israeli fire in Bastarra and Kfarshuba. Heavy machine gunfire from IDF positions impacts UNIFIL patrols, with one peacekeeper suffering ear concussion from gunfire and explosion.

The Israeli army killed an alleged member in southern Lebanon this week, while IDF’s 91st Division killed four alleged militants over the past week, demonstrating continued military operations despite ceasefire arrangements.

UNIFIL operations face ongoing challenges with peacekeepers under fire while attempting routine patrols and roadblock inspections. The force calls on Israeli army to “cease aggressive behavior and attacks on or near peacekeepers working for peace and stability along the Blue Line.”

Direct diplomatic talks in Naqoura, where Israeli and Lebanese officials met twice this month, occur in same town where peacekeepers face gunfire, highlighting complex security dynamics of ceasefire implementation and ongoing military operations.

Key Factor: UNIFIL peacekeepers under fire while diplomatic talks proceed in same area, demonstrating complex security environment with continued violations amid sustained diplomatic engagement.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 86/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Ongoing Operations. The governorate experiences continued Israeli strikes, with the IDF claiming operations against Hezbollah attempts to rebuild infrastructure despite ceasefire arrangements.

The Thursday strike in nearby Ansariyah area of southern Lebanon that killed alleged IRGC member demonstrates continued targeting operations affecting regional security despite overall ceasefire framework.

Infrastructure restoration continues under governmental framework, while ongoing military operations create challenges for civilian return and reconstruction activities despite diplomatic progress.

Key Factor: Continued targeting operations affecting regional security while governmental reconstruction efforts proceed creating complex operational environment for civilians and infrastructure.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – CEASEFIRE MAINTENANCE

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Incidents:

1. Bastarra – UNIFIL peacekeeper wounded by Israeli fire today
2. Kfarshuba – UNIFIL patrol reported machine gunfire from Israeli side
3. Ansariyah, Southern Lebanon – Thursday strike killing alleged IRGC member
4. Hermel District, Hosh al-Sayyed Ali Road – Thursday drone strike killing two
5. All UNIFIL Patrol Routes – Peacekeepers facing gunfire while conducting operations

Priority Level 2 – Ongoing Monitoring: 6. Naqoura – Diplomatic talks proceeding while peacekeepers face fire in same area 7. South Lebanon IDF Positions – Five strategic points maintained by Israel 8. All Southern Villages – Continued operations targeting alleged Hezbollah rebuilding 9. Eastern Lebanon Border Areas – Recent strikes in Hermel demonstrating continued operations 10. UNIFIL Headquarters and Positions – Ongoing security concerns for peacekeeping forces

✅ RELATIVELY STABLE ZONES (WITH CONTINUED VIGILANCE):

Improved Stability Areas:

• Central Beirut Government District – Diplomatic engagement proceeding with presidential optimism
• Northern Coastal Areas – Distance from violations with tourism recovery indicators
• Mount Lebanon Residential Areas – Benefiting from diplomatic progress and religious leadership support
• Cross-Border Areas – Stable coordination with Syrian authorities maintained

⚠️ CURRENT MONITORING REQUIREMENTS:

Ongoing Challenge Areas:

• UNIFIL operations facing gunfire and attacks while maintaining peacekeeping mandate
• Recent strikes in Hermel and southern areas demonstrating continued military operations
• Disarmament implementation proceeding while violations continue creating complex dynamics
• Diplomatic engagement advancing while operational incidents persist in field

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – CEASEFIRE PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

MIXED CONDITIONS REQUIRING AWARENESS: President Aoun’s Christmas Day optimism that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon” combined with Prime Minister Salam’s progress on Hezbollah disarmament creates positive outlook, though ongoing violations require continued security awareness.

CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT:

• Diplomatic Progress: Direct Israeli-Lebanese talks in Naqoura indicate sustained commitment
• Presidential Optimism: Government confidence in preventing major escalation
• Disarmament Advancement: Near completion south of Litani, expanding north
• Continued Violations: UNIFIL peacekeeper wounded today, recent deadly strikes in Hermel
• International Support: Trump administration reportedly encouraging continued diplomacy

RESIDENT CONSIDERATIONS:

• Overall ceasefire framework maintaining despite violations
• Diplomatic engagement reducing major escalation risks
• Ongoing military operations targeting specific security threats continuing
• UNIFIL peacekeepers facing challenges while maintaining ceasefire monitoring
• Gradual return and reconstruction proceeding in stabilized areas

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

IMPROVING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT:

• Diplomatic Progress: Direct talks and presidential optimism supporting business confidence
• Disarmament Implementation: Government progress creating legal framework for state authority
• International Engagement: U.S. continued involvement supporting stability
• Ongoing Violations: Specific targeting operations requiring awareness and monitoring

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Business expansion feasible with enhanced security awareness
• Tourism sector recovery accelerating with diplomatic progress
• Infrastructure improvements proceeding under stable governmental framework
• Specific areas (Hermel, southern border) requiring enhanced security protocols

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY – CEASEFIRE PERIOD:

CAUTIOUS IMPROVEMENT: Current conditions show diplomatic progress and governmental stability, though ongoing violations require careful assessment and enhanced security measures.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Government Areas: Normal operations with presidential optimism and diplomatic progress
• Southern Regions: Enhanced caution due to UNIFIL incidents and ongoing operations
• International Coordination: Sustained U.S. engagement and direct diplomatic talks
• Tourism Recovery: Gradual improvement in coastal and stable areas

📊 CURRENT SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Diplomatic Progress Amid Ongoing Operational Challenges
Governmental Function: Presidential optimism and PM disarmament progress demonstrating authority
UNIFIL Operations: Peacekeepers wounded by Israeli fire while maintaining mandate
International Engagement: Direct talks and Trump administration involvement supporting ceasefire

Critical Analysis: Lebanon experiences complex security environment where significant diplomatic progress, including direct Israeli-Lebanese meetings in Naqoura and presidential optimism about pushing back “the specter of war,” occurs simultaneously with ongoing ceasefire violations including UNIFIL peacekeeper wounded by Israeli fire today.

President Aoun’s Christmas Day statement that “diplomatic contacts to push back the specter of war have not stopped” and that “matters will head in a positive direction, God willing” demonstrates governmental confidence despite ongoing challenges.

Prime Minister Salam’s announcement that Lebanon is “close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River” and moving to weapons confiscation north of the Litani represents significant governmental progress on ceasefire implementation obligations.

The second direct meeting between Israeli and Lebanese officials in Naqoura this month indicates sustained commitment to diplomatic engagement, while reports that Trump will ask Netanyahu to continue diplomacy with Lebanon demonstrate continued U.S. support for ceasefire maintenance.

However, ongoing violations create complex operational environment. Today’s UNIFIL peacekeeper wounded by Israeli fire in Bastarra, Thursday’s drone strike in Hermel killing two, and continued operations killing alleged militants demonstrate that military operations persist despite overall ceasefire framework.

UNIFIL’s call for Israeli army to “cease aggressive behavior and attacks on or near peacekeepers working for peace and stability along the Blue Line” highlights ongoing challenges for international peacekeeping operations.

Israel has killed more than 300 people in Lebanon since last year’s ceasefire, including about 127 civilians according to United Nations, while from January to late November, Israeli forces carried out nearly 1,600 strikes across Lebanon.

Historical Context: A year of intense conflict between the Lebanese Iran-backed terror group and Israel came to a halt just over a year ago with a US-brokered ceasefire. The war erupted when Hezbollah began firing into Israel a day after the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre. Under the terms of the truce, Hezbollah was to be disarmed and allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to deploy fully across the country as the IDF withdrew.

Long-term Prospects: The combination of diplomatic progress, governmental disarmament implementation, and sustained international engagement creates framework for ceasefire maintenance despite ongoing violations. President Aoun’s optimism combined with Prime Minister Salam’s concrete disarmament progress suggests Lebanese government commitment to implementing ceasefire obligations while managing complex security challenges.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: CEASEFIRE PERIOD SECURITY SERVICES

🕊️ DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS WITH OPERATIONAL VIGILANCE

CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during Lebanon’s complex ceasefire period, where significant diplomatic progress occurs alongside ongoing operational challenges requiring enhanced security awareness and professional coordination.

CURRENT PERIOD SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

Diplomatic Engagement Security:

• Government Ceremony Protection – Security for presidential optimism initiatives and diplomatic meetings
• International Coordination Security – Professional services for direct Israeli-Lebanese talks in Naqoura
• Disarmament Implementation Support – Security coordination with Lebanese Army weapons collection operations
• UNIFIL Operational Support – Professional coordination with peacekeeping forces despite challenges

Ongoing Violation Response:

• Real-time Incident Monitoring – Continuous assessment of UNIFIL attacks and military operations
• Enhanced Southern Security – Professional protection for operations in areas with continued violations
• Emergency Response Protocols – Immediate coordination for security incidents despite ceasefire framework
• Civilian Protection Enhancement – Additional security for populations in areas with ongoing operations

Mixed Environment Navigation:

• Diplomatic Security Management – Protection during sustained engagement despite operational challenges
• Business Expansion Security – Professional assessment for operations in improving but complex environment
• Tourism Recovery Support – Security services enabling gradual visitor confidence restoration
• Infrastructure Project Protection – Professional security for reconstruction despite ongoing incidents

📞 CEASEFIRE PERIOD COORDINATION SERVICES

DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional security supporting diplomatic engagement while managing ongoing operational challenges

VIOLATION RESPONSE COORDINATION: Real-time monitoring and protection during ongoing incidents
DISARMAMENT SUPPORT SECURITY: Professional coordination with Lebanese Army implementation
BUSINESS EXPANSION PROTECTION: Comprehensive security enabling operations in improving environment

Specialized Response Centers:

• Government Coordination Center: Professional security supporting diplomatic initiatives
• Southern Operations Office: Enhanced protection in areas with ongoing violations
• UNIFIL Liaison: Coordination with peacekeeping operations despite challenges
• Emergency Response Center: Maintained capabilities during complex ceasefire period

During Lebanon’s complex ceasefire period, CIS Security’s professional services enable diplomatic engagement, support governmental disarmament implementation, and provide comprehensive protection while managing ongoing operational challenges requiring enhanced vigilance and professional coordination.

⚠️ CEASEFIRE PERIOD OPERATIONAL NOTICE

COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT: Lebanon navigates sophisticated security environment where significant diplomatic progress, including direct Israeli-Lebanese talks and presidential optimism about preventing war, occurs simultaneously with ongoing violations including UNIFIL peacekeeper wounded by Israeli fire today.

Update Frequency: Regular monitoring during ceasefire implementation. Next Assessment: December 28, 2025, 09:00 local time.

Diplomatic Progress with Operational Challenges: Presidential optimism that “the specter of war has been pushed away” combined with PM Salam’s disarmament progress creates positive framework, while ongoing violations including peacekeepers under fire and recent deadly strikes demonstrate continued operational challenges requiring professional security coordination.

Professional Commitment: CIS Security provides comprehensive protection supporting diplomatic engagement and governmental authority while maintaining enhanced vigilance for ongoing operational challenges during this complex ceasefire implementation period.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s complex ceasefire period under President Joseph Aoun and PM Nawaf Salam, with diplomatic progress amid ongoing violations, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise in mixed environment navigation and professional protection. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive security solutions supporting diplomatic engagement, governmental disarmament implementation, and business expansion while maintaining enhanced vigilance for ongoing operational challenges. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection enabling continued activities during sophisticated security environments.

CIS Security Ceasefire Period Services:

• Diplomatic Engagement Security – Professional protection for direct talks and governmental initiatives
• Violation Response Monitoring – Real-time assessment of ongoing incidents including UNIFIL attacks
• Disarmament Support Coordination – Security services supporting Lebanese Army weapons collection
• Business Expansion Protection – Comprehensive security enabling operations in improving environment
• Tourism Recovery Services – Professional protection supporting gradual visitor confidence restoration
• UNIFIL Coordination Security – Professional liaison with peacekeeping operations despite challenges

Why Choose CIS During Ceasefire Period: ✓ 35+ Years Mixed Environment Experience – Proven security during diplomatic progress with operational challenges
✓ Governmental Cooperation – Professional coordination with presidential initiatives and PM disarmament progress
✓ International Partnership Support – Enhanced security for direct diplomatic talks and U.S. engagement
✓ Violation Response Capability – Real-time monitoring and protection during ongoing incidents
✓ Business Confidence Enablement – Security services supporting expansion in improving environment
✓ Comprehensive Assessment – Professional evaluation of complex ceasefire implementation dynamics

Ceasefire Period Support: 📞 Mixed Environment Coordination: +961-3-539900
💬 Diplomatic Security: Professional protection for governmental engagement initiatives
🌐 Current Assessment: www.cissecurity.net – Comprehensive ceasefire period evaluation
📧 Business Expansion: Professional security enabling operations during improving conditions

Serving all Lebanese governorates during complex ceasefire implementation period with professional security for diplomatic engagement, governmental disarmament support, and business operations. CIS Security – Your trusted partner for comprehensive protection during mixed environment requiring diplomatic progress support while maintaining operational vigilance under President Aoun’s leadership and PM Salam’s disarmament implementation.