🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Sunday, Feb 1 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 84/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ TENSE STABILITY – CRITICAL WEEK AHEAD FOR DISARMAMENT

🚨 BREAKING: CRITICAL WEEK FOR PRESIDENT AOUN – BUDGET APPROVED, PHASE 2 COMING

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2026:

TODAY’S ARTILLERY ATTACK: Al-Manar reporter: Zionist enemy targets outskirts of Yaroun border town, South Lebanon, with two artillery shells, demonstrating continued violations despite critical governmental week ahead.

BUDGET APPROVED: Lebanese Parliament Approves 2026 State Budget, providing fiscal framework for governmental operations and reconstruction efforts amid ongoing security challenges.

AOUN’S CRITICAL PERIOD: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun could be facing the most critical period of his one-year tenure in the coming weeks and months. Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) chief of staff Rodolphe Haykal is set to visit Washington from February 3 to 5. Also in February, the LAF will present a plan for phase two of Hezbollah’s disarmament.

HAYKAL’S WASHINGTON VISIT: LAF Commander Haykal is set to visit Washington from February 3 to 5. He was scheduled to visit the US in November, but the visit was cancelled after US officials were unhappy with Haykal for comments he made criticising Israel. Haykal will propose phase two of Hezbollah’s disarmament by the LAF to the Lebanese Cabinet in February.

PHASE TWO PLAN: In phase two, Hezbollah is set to be disarmed from the Litani River to the Awali River, which runs across Lebanon starting south of Beirut, significantly expanding disarmament scope beyond current operations.

SALAM’S COMMITMENT: PM Salam says Lebanon won’t back down from 2nd phase of Hezbollah disarmament, demonstrating governmental resolve despite Hezbollah’s refusal and Israeli violation concerns.

HEZBOLLAH’S POSITION: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem states that his group will not accept disarmament north of the Litani River, unless Israel starts to abide by the ceasefire. Hezbollah has largely allowed the disarmament south of the Litani river, but has so far refused to relinquish its arsenal further north, citing continued Israeli occupation of Lebanese land.

ISRAEL’S RESPONSE: Israel warns the goal of disarming Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remains far from being achieved. “Hezbollah is rearming faster than it is being disarmed,” pointing to continued Iranian support.

11,000+ VIOLATIONS: Israel has violated the November 2024 ceasefire more than 11,000 times, creating impossible framework where Lebanese compliance doesn’t prevent Israeli attacks. UNIFIL has documented more than 10,000 ceasefire violations, including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations.

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE: An international conference will be held in Paris in March in support of the Lebanese army, one of several key events Lebanon and Aoun hope will shift the pendulum in their favor.

RECONSTRUCTION PLAN APPROVED: Lebanese Government Approves Reconstruction Plan of Structures Destroyed by Israeli Enemy in 2024 War. Two hours after approval, Israeli jets attacked an excavator maintenance facility in South Lebanon.

WAGE AGREEMENT: Deputy House Speaker Elias Bou Saad highlights agreement between PM Salam and veterans delegation on raising wages before end of February, providing economic relief amid security challenges.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 78/100 🔴
Status: Critical Week for Presidential Authority. The capital enters the most critical period of President Joseph Aoun’s one-year tenure as multiple pivotal events converge in February. Parliament’s approval of the 2026 state budget provides fiscal framework while phase two disarmament planning begins this week.

Aoun faces an extremely sensitive position, caught between escalating American and Israeli pressure on one hand, and domestic rejection of any discussion of weapons under fire on the other. The army will avoid anything that would degenerate into civil conflict, but Hay

kal’s February 3-5 Washington visit represents crucial opportunity to secure LAF equipment and support.

PM Salam’s commitment that Lebanon won’t back down from phase two disarmament demonstrates governmental resolve, though phase two scope (Litani to Awali River) creates unprecedented political challenges as it extends disarmament north toward Beirut’s southern approaches.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects critical governmental week while diplomatic activities intensify with Haykal’s Washington visit preparations. The wage agreement with veterans before February end provides economic relief supporting governmental legitimacy.

US support through $200 million military aid tied to internal control equips the LAF not to fight external wars, but to win the internal struggle for authority through Tom Barrack and Morgan Ortagus’s transactional diplomacy.

Key Factor: Critical week begins with Haykal’s Washington visit (Feb 3-5) and phase two disarmament planning while budget approval and wage agreement support governmental authority amid 11,000+ Israeli violations.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Phase Two Concerns. The governorate faces unprecedented challenges as phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali River) would affect areas near southern suburbs, creating direct concerns for Mount Lebanon populations.

Business operations benefit from budget approval providing economic framework while wage agreement before February end supports economic recovery. However, phase two scope creating political tensions affecting regional stability and confidence.

Tourism sector shows cautious activity as budget approval and governmental functionality create some confidence, though 11,000+ Israeli violations and today’s Yaroun artillery attack maintain underlying security concerns.

The region serves as primary destination for displaced populations, with infrastructure systems managing humanitarian needs while preparing for potential phase two disarmament impacts on nearby areas.

Key Factor: Phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali) approaching areas near southern suburbs creating regional concerns while budget approval provides economic framework.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 76/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Economic Framework. Tripoli and surrounding areas benefit from Parliament’s approval of 2026 state budget providing fiscal framework for governmental operations and economic planning.

The port city’s commercial activities show improvement from budget approval and wage agreement creating economic stability, though regional tensions from 11,000+ violations and phase two disarmament politics maintain underlying concerns.

Economic conditions benefit from governmental functionality with budget approval, wage agreement, and reconstruction plan creating institutional stability supporting business confidence and commercial activities.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable with continued coordination, while regional security benefits from governmental focus on diplomatic efforts (Haykal’s Washington visit, March Paris conference) supporting LAF capabilities.

Key Factor: Budget approval and wage agreement creating economic stability while distance from phase two disarmament scope maintaining better security conditions.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 77/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with LAF Support Focus. The Syrian border situation maintains stability as critical week ahead focuses on LAF enhancement through Haykal’s Washington visit (Feb 3-5) and March Paris conference.

US military aid ($200 million) tied to internal control provides LAF resources, while Haykal’s Washington visit aims to secure additional equipment and support enabling more aggressive arms cache securing operations.

Border monitoring continues effectively, while regional security benefits from governmental focus on LAF capability building through international support (Washington visit, Paris conference) strengthening state authority.

Key Factor: Critical week for LAF with Haykal’s Washington visit (Feb 3-5) seeking equipment and support while March Paris conference planning strengthens border security capabilities.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Phase Two Target Zone. The valley faces maximum political tension as phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali River) potentially affects eastern regions while Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem reiterates refusal to disarm north of Litani unless Israel abides ceasefire.

Today’s artillery attack on Yaroun and reconstruction plan approval followed immediately by Israeli attack on excavator facility demonstrate Israeli operations continue regardless of Lebanese governmental efforts.

Agricultural operations continue under security constraints while phase two planning creates unprecedented political challenges. Hezbollah has largely allowed phase one disarmament south of Litani but refuses arsenal relinquishment north, citing continued Israeli occupation and 11,000+ violations.

Israel claims Hezbollah is rearming faster than being disarmed with continued Iranian support, creating justification for ongoing operations despite Lebanese compliance efforts.

Key Factor: Phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali) creating maximum political tension while Hezbollah refuses disarmament north of Litani citing 11,000+ Israeli violations.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 83/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Disarmament Resistance. This region represents center of resistance to disarmament expansion as phase two scope (Litani to Awali) approaches areas where Hezbollah maintains strongest presence.

Infrastructure improvements benefit from reconstruction plan approval, though Israeli attack on excavator facility two hours after approval demonstrates ongoing targeting regardless of governmental recovery efforts.

The region’s strategic significance creates ongoing monitoring requirements while Hezbollah’s explicit refusal to disarm north of Litani creates impossible framework for phase two implementation without escalated confrontation.

Key Factor: Center of disarmament resistance as phase two approaches while reconstruction efforts face immediate Israeli targeting.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 70/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Economic Optimism. The coastal governorate benefits from budget approval and wage agreement creating economic framework while maintaining distance from phase two disarmament immediate scope.

Tourism sector shows improved prospects from budget approval and governmental functionality creating international confidence, though 11,000+ violations maintain underlying regional concerns.

Business operations benefit from fiscal framework (budget approval) and economic relief (wage agreement) while governmental diplomatic efforts (Haykal’s Washington visit, Paris conference) support overall stability prospects.

Key Factor: Budget approval and wage agreement creating economic optimism while distance from phase two immediate scope maintaining better conditions.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Today’s Artillery Attack. The south experiences danger from today’s artillery attack on Yaroun demonstrating continued violations during critical governmental week.

Phase one disarmament largely complete south of Litani except five Israeli-occupied positions, but 11,000+ violations including today’s artillery attack and recent excavator facility strike demonstrate Israeli operations continue regardless of Lebanese compliance.

UNIFIL operations face extreme challenges as 10,000+ documented violations (7,500 airspace, 2,500 ground) eliminate peacekeeping effectiveness while Lebanese Army maintains operational control except Israeli-occupied positions.

Civilian populations experience ongoing threats as today’s artillery attack, reconstruction facility targeting, and systematic violation patterns create permanent danger environment despite phase one disarmament completion.

Key Factor: Today’s Yaroun artillery attack and systematic violations (11,000+) continuing despite phase one disarmament completion creating impossible security framework.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 87/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Reconstruction Targeting. The governorate faces danger from systematic targeting pattern demonstrated by Israeli attack on excavator facility two hours after government approved reconstruction plan.

Civilian infrastructure faces ongoing threats as reconstruction efforts immediately targeted, creating impossible framework for recovery while Israeli operations continue despite governmental compliance and planning.

Key Factor: Reconstruction efforts immediately targeted demonstrating Israeli operations prevent recovery regardless of governmental planning and compliance.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – CRUCIAL WEEK AHEAD

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Today’s Active Zones:

1. Yaroun Border Town – Today’s artillery attack with two shells
2. Excavator Facility Areas – Recent targeting following reconstruction plan approval
3. Five Israeli-Occupied Points – Preventing Lebanese Army operations
4. Phase Two Target Areas – Litani to Awali River regions facing February planning

Priority Level 2 – Critical Week Monitoring: 5. Washington DC (Feb 3-5) – Haykal’s critical visit for LAF equipment and support 6. Lebanese Cabinet – February phase two disarmament plan presentation 7. All UNIFIL Positions – 10,000+ violations affecting peacekeeping operations 8. Reconstruction Sites – Immediate targeting following governmental approval

🗓️ CRITICAL EVENTS THIS WEEK:

February 3-5, 2026:

• LAF Chief Haykal visits Washington seeking equipment and support
• Originally cancelled in November after criticizing Israel
• Critical for securing LAF capabilities for phase two implementation

February 2026:

• Haykal presents phase two disarmament plan to Lebanese Cabinet
• Phase two scope: Litani River to Awali River (approaching Beirut southern approaches)
• Hezbollah explicitly refuses disarmament north of Litani
• Wage increases for veterans before month end

March 2026:

• International conference in Paris supporting Lebanese Army
• Key event Aoun hopes will shift pendulum in Lebanon’s favor

✅ POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS:

Governmental Functionality:

• 2026 state budget approved by Parliament
• Reconstruction plan approved for 2024 war destruction
• Wage agreement with veterans before February end
• Phase one disarmament largely complete south of Litani

⚠️ CRITICAL WEEK CONSIDERATIONS:

Aoun’s Tightrope: Caught between escalating American and Israeli pressure versus domestic rejection of discussing weapons under fire. Army must avoid civil conflict while securing international support for equipment enabling more aggressive arms cache operations.

Israeli Position: Claims Hezbollah rearming faster than being disarmed despite 11,000+ violations preventing Lebanese compliance. Attacks reconstruction efforts immediately upon approval.

Hezbollah’s Stance: Allowed phase one south of Litani but explicitly refuses phase two north of Litani citing Israeli occupation and 11,000+ violations preventing discussion under fire.

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – CRITICAL GOVERNMENTAL WEEK

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

CRITICAL WEEK AHEAD: President Aoun faces most critical period of one-year tenure with Haykal’s Washington visit (Feb 3-5), phase two disarmament planning, and ongoing violations (11,000+) creating unprecedented governmental challenges.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

• Budget Approved: 2026 fiscal framework providing governmental operations support
• Wage Agreement: Veterans wage increase before February end
• Reconstruction Plan: Approved but immediately targeted by Israeli strikes
• Phase Two Coming: Litani to Awali disarmament planning creating political tensions
• Violations Continue: Today’s Yaroun artillery attack, 11,000+ total violations

PROTECTIVE MEASURES:

• Southern Areas: Continued caution despite phase one completion due to 11,000+ violations
• Phase Two Zones: Litani to Awali areas monitoring February planning developments
• Reconstruction Sites: Enhanced awareness following immediate targeting pattern
• Political Developments: Monitor Haykal’s Washington visit and phase two planning

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

CRITICAL WEEK DEVELOPMENTS:

• Budget Approval: 2026 fiscal framework enabling business planning
• Reconstruction Plan: Government approved but targeting pattern requires caution
• Wage Agreement: February end increases supporting economic activity
• International Support: Haykal’s Washington visit and Paris conference planning

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Benefit from budget approval providing fiscal framework
• Monitor reconstruction targeting pattern affecting recovery investments
• Prepare for phase two political impacts on areas north of Litani
• Track international support developments (Washington visit, Paris conference)

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY:

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS: Mixed conditions with governmental functionality (budget, reconstruction plan, wages) but today’s artillery attack and 11,000+ violations maintaining security concerns.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Southern Lebanon: Avoid despite phase one completion due to continued violations
• Phase Two Areas: Litani to Awali regions monitoring February planning impacts
• Central Beirut: Functional with budget approval and governmental activities
• Overall Caution: 11,000+ violations requiring continued awareness

📊 COMPREHENSIVE CRITICAL WEEK ANALYSIS

This Week’s Significance: Most critical period of President Aoun’s one-year tenure
Key Event: LAF Chief Haykal visits Washington DC February 3-5
Phase Two Planning: Cabinet presentation February 2026 for Litani to Awali disarmament
Violation Reality: 11,000+ Israeli violations, today’s Yaroun artillery attack
Governmental Progress: Budget approved, reconstruction plan approved, wage agreement

Critical Analysis: President Joseph Aoun enters the most critical weeks of his tenure with multiple pivotal events testing Lebanon’s governmental strategy. Haykal’s February 3-5 Washington visit represents crucial opportunity after November cancellation due to Israel criticism.

The visit aims to secure equipment and support enabling LAF to be more aggressive in arms cache operations, as LAF currently remains undermanned, underfunded and underequipped to deploy across south Lebanon, let alone militarily confront the Israelis.

Phase two disarmament planning (Litani to Awali River) creates unprecedented political challenges as scope approaches Beirut’s southern approaches. Hezbollah explicitly refuses disarmament north of Litani citing 11,000+ Israeli violations and continued occupation of Lebanese land.

Israel claims progress “far from sufficient” with Hezbollah rearming faster than being disarmed through continued Iranian support, creating justification for ongoing operations including today’s Yaroun artillery attack.

Aoun navigates diplomatic corridors with international actors to back the Lebanese army and pressure Israel to abide by ceasefire: two crucial steps facilitating easier Hezbollah disarmament. Washington visit, March Paris conference, and phase two planning represent key opportunities.

However, immediate targeting of reconstruction facility two hours after governmental approval demonstrates Israeli operations continue preventing recovery regardless of Lebanese compliance efforts.

Long-term Framework: Strategy of “thousand cuts” through systemic attrition—removing every condition that once made Hezbollah’s arsenal appear necessary, viable, or legitimate. Homeland Shield Plan adopted September 2025 provides phased roadmap.

Governmental Achievements: Budget approval, reconstruction planning, wage agreement demonstrate institutional functionality. Phase one disarmament largely complete south of Litani except five Israeli-occupied positions.

Critical Challenges: 11,000+ Israeli violations, Hezbollah’s explicit refusal for phase two, Israeli occupation of five positions, reconstruction immediate targeting, civil conflict avoidance requirement.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: CRITICAL WEEK PROTECTION SERVICES

⚠️ MOST CRITICAL PERIOD – PRESIDENT AOUN’S PIVOTAL WEEK

CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during the most critical period of President Aoun’s tenure with Haykal’s Washington visit (Feb 3-5), phase two disarmament planning, and continued violations including today’s Yaroun artillery attack.

CRITICAL WEEK SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

Governmental Critical Period Security:

• Washington Visit Protection: Security coordination during Haykal’s Feb 3-5 critical visit
• Phase Two Planning Security: Enhanced protection during Cabinet disarmament planning
• International Conference Preparation: Security for March Paris conference planning
• Reconstruction Site Protection: Enhanced security following immediate targeting pattern

Violation Environment Operations:

• Real-Time Monitoring: Today’s Yaroun artillery attack and 11,000+ violation tracking
• Phase One Zone Security: Protection in completed disarmament areas still experiencing violations
• Reconstruction Targeting Response: Security for recovery efforts facing immediate attacks
• Israeli-Occupied Position Avoidance: Professional routing around five occupied points

Political Transition Security:

• Phase Two Impact Assessment: Security planning for Litani to Awali expansion
• Civil Conflict Avoidance: Professional protocols preventing escalation during disarmament
• International Support Coordination: Security for Washington visit and Paris conference
• Economic Framework Protection: Security enabling budget implementation and reconstruction

SPECIALIZED CRITICAL WEEK SERVICES:

Haykal’s Washington Visit (Feb 3-5):

• Professional security coordination during critical LAF equipment negotiations
• International diplomatic security support for pivotal visit
• Secure communications for sensitive military cooperation discussions
• Emergency protocols for high-stakes diplomatic engagement

Phase Two Disarmament Planning:

• Enhanced security during Cabinet presentation and political negotiations
• Professional assessment of Litani to Awali implementation challenges
• Civil conflict avoidance protocols during sensitive disarmament expansion
• Hezbollah refusal environment security management

International Conference Preparation:

• Security coordination for March Paris conference planning
• Professional support for international LAF support initiatives
• Diplomatic protection during pivotal multilateral engagement
• Comprehensive security for events Aoun hopes will shift pendulum

📞 CRITICAL WEEK COORDINATION SERVICES

PIVOTAL PERIOD HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional protection during most critical weeks of presidential tenure

WASHINGTON VISIT SECURITY: Coordination during Feb 3-5 pivotal LAF negotiations
PHASE TWO PLANNING PROTECTION: Enhanced security during Cabinet disarmament planning
VIOLATION RESPONSE: Real-time monitoring of today’s attack and 11,000+ violations

Critical Week Centers:

• Governmental Protection Center: Security during pivotal February events
• International Coordination Office: Washington visit and Paris conference support
• Phase Two Planning Security: Professional protection during sensitive negotiations
• Reconstruction Site Protection: Enhanced security following targeting pattern

During President Aoun’s most critical period with Haykal’s Washington visit (Feb 3-5), phase two disarmament planning, and 11,000+ violations including today’s Yaroun attack, CIS Security provides comprehensive protection enabling governmental strategy success.

⚠️ CRITICAL WEEK OPERATIONAL NOTICE

PIVOTAL PERIOD ALERT: President Joseph Aoun faces most critical weeks of one-year tenure with LAF Chief Haykal’s Washington visit (February 3-5), phase two disarmament Cabinet presentation (February 2026), and March Paris conference amid 11,000+ Israeli violations including today’s Yaroun artillery attack.

This Week’s Significance: Haykal’s Washington visit after November cancellation represents crucial opportunity for LAF equipment securing more aggressive arms cache operations. Phase two planning (Litani to Awali) creates unprecedented political challenges with Hezbollah’s explicit refusal.

Governmental Strategy: Aoun navigates diplomatic corridors backing Lebanese army and pressuring Israeli ceasefire compliance—two crucial steps facilitating easier Hezbollah disarmament while avoiding civil conflict.

Professional Support: CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during pivotal governmental week enabling Washington visit success, phase two planning security, and reconstruction protection despite immediate targeting pattern.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During President Aoun’s most critical period with Haykal’s Washington visit (Feb 3-5), phase two disarmament planning, budget approval, and 11,000+ violations including today’s Yaroun attack, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive protection during pivotal governmental weeks, international diplomatic engagement, sensitive disarmament planning, and systematic violation environments. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting Lebanon’s most critical governmental period under President Aoun and PM Salam.

CIS Security Critical Week Services:

• Washington Visit Security – Professional coordination during Haykal’s Feb 3-5 pivotal negotiations
• Phase Two Planning Protection – Enhanced security during Cabinet disarmament planning
• Budget Implementation Security – Protection enabling 2026 fiscal framework operations
• Reconstruction Site Security – Enhanced protection following immediate targeting pattern
• Violation Response – Real-time monitoring of today’s Yaroun attack and 11,000+ violations
• International Conference Support – Security for March Paris conference preparation

Why Choose CIS During Critical Governmental Period: ✓ 35+ Years Pivotal Period Experience – Proven security during critical governmental transitions
✓ International Coordination – Professional support for Washington visit and Paris conference
✓ Phase Two Planning Security – Enhanced protection during sensitive disarmament negotiations
✓ Civil Conflict Avoidance – Professional protocols preventing escalation during critical period
✓ Reconstruction Protection – Security despite immediate targeting following approval
✓ Comprehensive Support – Protection enabling governmental strategy during pivotal weeks

Critical Week Protection: 📞 Pivotal Period Hotline: +961-3-539900
💬 Washington Visit Security: Professional coordination during Feb 3-5 critical negotiations
🌐 Phase Two Planning: www.cissecurity.net – Enhanced security for Cabinet disarmament presentation
📧 Reconstruction Protection: Security despite immediate targeting pattern

Serving all Lebanese governorates during President Aoun’s most critical period with Haykal’s Washington visit (February 3-5), phase two disarmament planning (Litani to Awali), budget approval, and 11,000+ violations including today’s Yaroun artillery attack. CIS Security – Your trusted partner providing comprehensive protection during pivotal governmental week under President Joseph Aoun and PM Nawaf Salam’s leadership while navigating most critical challenges of one-year presidential tenure.