🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Sunday, Feb 15 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 85/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ TENSE STABILITY – CONTINUED VIOLATIONS AMID POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

🚨 CURRENT SITUATION: HARIRI HINTS AT ELECTIONS RETURN – IDF STRIKES CONTINUE

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2026:

SAAD HARIRI’S MAJOR POLITICAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Ex-PM Saad Hariri on Saturday (yesterday) hinted that his al-Mustaqbal Movement might take part in the upcoming parliamentary elections. During the commemoration of February 14, 2005, the former prime minister discussed the possibility of the Future Movement participating in parliamentary elections, while hinting that the holding of elections may be conditional on certain factors.

IDF CONTINUES LEBANON STRIKES TODAY: The IDF says Hezbollah continues to attempt to rebuild its infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and that the presence of the arms caches and rocket launchers is a violation of the November 2024 ceasefire. The IDF says its series of Lebanon strikes targeted Hezbollah arms depots, rocket launchers, demonstrating continued military operations despite ceasefire framework.

POST-HAYKAL VISIT PERIOD: Following LAF Commander Haykal’s Washington visit (February 3-5) for military support discussions, Lebanon enters critical implementation period as government evaluates US commitments while managing continued Israeli violations.

PHASE TWO DISARMAMENT DISCUSSIONS: The Cabinet has discussed phase two of Hezbollah’s disarmament (Litani to Awali River area), with analysts believing Hezbollah will not accept disarmament as long as Israeli attacks continue.

11,000+ VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTED: Israel has violated the November 2024 ceasefire more than 11,000 times according to UN and Lebanese documentation, while Hezbollah has launched only one attack in the 14 months since ceasefire began.

64,000 STILL DISPLACED: Approximately 64,000 Lebanese remain displaced from southern Lebanon and Bekaa Valley due to ongoing Israeli attacks and occupation of five strategic points.

TRIPOLI BUILDING COLLAPSES: Two residential building collapses have struck Tripoli within about two weeks leaving around 14 people dead, several injured, and many families displaced, adding humanitarian crisis to security challenges.

US-IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS: The U.S. and Iran are expected to hold a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva next Tuesday in an effort to reach a deal that prevents war, affecting regional dynamics and Lebanon’s security environment.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 79/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Political Developments. The capital experiences significant political movement as former PM Saad Hariri hints at al-Mustaqbal Movement’s potential return to parliamentary elections, creating major political shift after years of withdrawal from Lebanese politics.

President Joseph Aoun’s government continues navigating complex challenges following Hay

kal’s Washington visit (February 3-5), implementing US military support commitments while managing continued Israeli violations. The government faces pressure to demonstrate progress on disarmament while Israeli strikes continue, creating impossible operational conditions.

Enhanced security reflects ongoing vigilance as Israeli strikes continue today targeting what IDF claims are Hezbollah arms depots and rocket launchers, maintaining pattern of 11,000+ documented violations since November 2024 ceasefire.

The anticipated March international conference in Paris supporting the Lebanese army becomes crucial for LAF capacity enhancement, with outcomes potentially determining disarmament implementation viability.

Key Factor: Hariri’s elections hint creating political shift while continued Israeli strikes and post-Haykal visit implementation period creating complex governmental environment.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 75/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Political Optimism. The governorate experiences cautious optimism from Hariri’s announcement potentially signaling return of major Sunni political force to parliamentary elections, though approximately 64,000 displaced persons maintain humanitarian pressure.

Business operations show mixed indicators as political developments create potential stability while continued Israeli strikes (today’s operations targeting arms depots) maintain regional security concerns.

Tourism sector remains challenged despite political developments, as 11,000+ violations and approximately 64,000 displaced demonstrate ongoing crisis conditions affecting international visitor confidence.

The region serves as primary displacement destination, with infrastructure systems managing humanitarian needs while political developments potentially signal improved stability prospects.

Key Factor: Hariri’s elections hint providing political optimism while 64,000 displaced and continued strikes maintaining humanitarian and security challenges.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Humanitarian Emergency. Tripoli and surrounding areas face severe crisis as two residential building collapses within two weeks left around 14 people dead, several injured, and many families displaced, creating immediate humanitarian emergency.

Most affected households from building collapses are currently staying with neighbors in nearby buildings that are also considered unsafe, while only a few agreed to move to temporary shelters, amid fears of prolonged displacement. Anera Teams have already responded, supporting 37 displaced individuals in one shelter with mattresses, hygiene kits, and sleeping bags.

Economic conditions face additional pressure as building collapses demonstrate infrastructure deterioration compounding security challenges, though Hariri’s political announcement creates some optimism for regional political representation.

The port city’s commercial operations continue amid humanitarian crisis management, while regional security concerns from continued Israeli strikes affect broader economic confidence.

Key Factor: Tripoli building collapses (14 dead, many displaced) creating immediate humanitarian crisis while infrastructure deterioration demonstrates comprehensive challenges.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 78/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Stability. The Syrian border situation maintains relative stability with Lebanese Armed Forces operations continuing following Haykal’s Washington visit securing potential US military support enhancements.

Border security benefits from LAF focus on authority consolidation, though regional dynamics remain affected by US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Geneva (Tuesday) potentially affecting regional alignments.

The region monitors political developments including Hariri’s elections hint potentially affecting regional political dynamics and representation frameworks.

Key Factor: LAF border operations stable post-Haykal visit while US-Iran talks and Hariri announcement affecting regional political environment.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 84/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Continued Targeting. The valley faces ongoing challenges as part of approximately 64,000 displaced Lebanese from Israeli attacks, with today’s IDF strikes targeting claimed Hezbollah infrastructure demonstrating continued military operations.

Phase two disarmament discussions (Litani to Awali River) create political tension as analysts believe Hezbollah will not accept implementation while Israeli attacks continue (11,000+ violations documented).

Agricultural operations remain disrupted from ongoing security situation and displacement crisis, though Ramadan distributions by Anera supporting vulnerable families provides humanitarian relief. Preparations covering 32 villages across governorate supporting 2,800 vulnerable families during Ramadan.

Key Factor: Today’s IDF strikes and 64,000 displaced creating ongoing crisis while phase two disarmament discussions and Ramadan humanitarian aid affecting regional dynamics.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Strategic Monitoring. This region faces continued alert status as part of Bekaa Valley experiencing Israeli targeting, with today’s strikes demonstrating ongoing military operations pattern.

Infrastructure remains challenged while humanitarian organizations like Anera provide Ramadan support to vulnerable populations. The region’s strategic significance creates ongoing monitoring requirements.

The anticipated March Paris conference supporting Lebanese army becomes crucial for regional security framework, with LAF enhancement potentially affecting long-term stability prospects.

Key Factor: Today’s strikes demonstrating ongoing targeting while Ramadan humanitarian support and March Paris conference affecting regional security framework.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 72/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Political Developments. The coastal governorate benefits from Hariri’s announcement potentially signaling improved political stability while maintaining relative distance from today’s Israeli strikes in southern areas.

Tourism sector shows cautious interest from political developments, though 11,000+ violations and approximately 64,000 displaced maintain overall security concerns affecting international visitor confidence.

Business operations proceed with awareness of regional challenges while political developments create potential optimism for improved stability frameworks.

Key Factor: Hariri’s elections hint creating political optimism while relative distance from strikes maintaining better security conditions than southern regions.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Operations Zone. The south experiences ongoing danger as today’s IDF strikes target claimed Hezbollah arms depots and rocket launchers, demonstrating continued military operations despite November 2024 ceasefire framework.

Hezbollah has launched only one attack in 14 months since ceasefire began (in December responding to repeated attacks by firing at Israeli military post), while Israel has violated ceasefire more than 11,000 times according to UN and Lebanese documentation.

Israel continues occupying five strategic points in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire requiring withdrawal. Lebanese military officials say the only places they were unable to operate removing Hezbollah weapons were near these Israeli-occupied points.

Approximately 64,000 Lebanese remain displaced from the south, with ongoing Israeli operations and occupation preventing civilian return and reconstruction efforts.

Key Factor: Today’s IDF strikes continuing 11,000+ violation pattern while five occupied points and 64,000 displaced demonstrating sustained crisis despite ceasefire framework.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Continued Displacement. The governorate faces severe challenges as part of approximately 64,000 displaced Lebanese, with continued Israeli operations preventing return and reconstruction.

Humanitarian organizations provide Ramadan support with distributions across South Lebanon reaching more than 1,000 families, demonstrating sustained humanitarian needs requiring international assistance.

Medical and emergency services operate under pressure from ongoing security challenges while infrastructure restoration remains impossible under current violation patterns.

Key Factor: Part of 64,000 displaced with Ramadan humanitarian distributions demonstrating sustained needs while continued operations preventing civilian return.

🎯 COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Operations Today:

1. Southern Lebanon Infrastructure Sites – Today’s IDF strikes targeting claimed Hezbollah arms depots
2. Rocket Launcher Locations – IDF claims targeting launch sites in today’s operations
3. Five Israeli-Occupied Points – Continued occupation preventing civilian operations
4. Tripoli Building Collapse Areas – 14 dead, infrastructure crisis creating immediate danger
5. Displacement Accommodation Areas – 64,000 persons requiring humanitarian support

Priority Level 2 – Monitoring Required: 6. Phase Two Disarmament Zone – Litani to Awali River discussions creating political tension 7. All UNIFIL Positions – Peacekeeping operations amid 11,000+ violations 8. Unsafe Buildings Tripoli – Neighbors of collapsed structures considered unsafe 9. Hezbollah Infrastructure Areas – Claimed rebuilding creating targeting justification 10. Geneva Nuclear Talks Impact – US-Iran discussions affecting regional dynamics

✅ RELATIVELY STABLE ZONES:

Improved Conditions:

• Central Beirut Political District – Hariri announcement creating political development optimism
• Northern Coastal Areas – Distance from today’s southern strikes
• Border Areas with Syria – LAF operations maintaining relative stability
• Mount Lebanon Residential Areas – Managing 64,000 displaced but maintaining services

⚠️ CURRENT SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS:

Today’s Factors:

• IDF strikes today targeting claimed Hezbollah arms and rocket launchers
• Hariri hints at elections return creating major political development
• Post-Haykal visit implementation period evaluating US military support
• Tripoli building collapses (14 dead) creating humanitarian emergency
• 11,000+ violations vs one Hezbollah attack demonstrating asymmetric pattern
• 64,000 displaced requiring sustained humanitarian support

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

TODAY’S MIXED DEVELOPMENTS: Political optimism from Hariri’s elections hint balanced by today’s continued IDF strikes and Tripoli humanitarian emergency (14 dead from building collapses), creating complex environment requiring awareness.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

• Political Development: Hariri potentially returning to elections signaling stability improvement
• Security Reality: Today’s IDF strikes continuing 11,000+ violation pattern
• Humanitarian Crisis: Tripoli collapses 14 dead, unsafe buildings threatening more casualties
• Displacement: 64,000 persons requiring sustained support
• Regional Dynamics: US-Iran talks Tuesday affecting broader security environment

PROTECTIVE MEASURES:

• Southern Areas: Continued caution due to today’s strikes and ongoing operations
• Tripoli: Avoid unsafe buildings, monitor collapse areas
• Ramadan Support: Access humanitarian distributions if vulnerable
• Political Developments: Monitor elections timeline from Hariri statements
• Displacement: Humanitarian support available through Anera and organizations

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

TODAY’S ENVIRONMENT:

• Political Optimism: Hariri’s elections hint potentially improving stability framework
• Security Reality: Today’s strikes maintaining operational concerns
• Tripoli Crisis: Building collapses affecting northern business confidence
• Displacement Impact: 64,000 persons affecting economic activities
• Regional Factors: US-Iran talks potentially affecting investment climate

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Monitor political developments for elections timeline
• Maintain security protocols despite political optimism
• Tripoli operations require enhanced building safety assessments
• Track US-Iran negotiations for regional implications
• Prepare for March Paris conference outcomes

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY:

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS: Mixed conditions with political developments creating optimism while security challenges (today’s strikes, 11,000+ violations, Tripoli emergency) requiring continued caution.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Southern Lebanon: Avoid due to today’s strikes and ongoing operations
• Tripoli: Enhanced caution near collapse areas and unsafe buildings
• Central Beirut: Functional with political activity
• Northern Coastal Areas: Relatively better conditions
• Overall Awareness: 11,000+ violations requiring continued vigilance

📊 COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Political Development Amid Continued Security Challenges
Hariri Announcement: Potential al-Mustaqbal return to elections creating political optimism
Today’s Operations: IDF strikes targeting claimed Hezbollah infrastructure
Tripoli Emergency: 14 dead from building collapses within two weeks
Violation Scale: 11,000+ Israeli violations vs one Hezbollah attack in 14 months
Humanitarian Crisis: 64,000 displaced requiring sustained support

Critical Analysis: Lebanon experiences significant political development as former PM Saad Hariri hints at al-Mustaqbal Movement’s potential return to parliamentary elections, potentially signaling major Sunni political force re-engagement after years of withdrawal.

However, security challenges persist with today’s IDF strikes continuing pattern of 11,000+ documented violations since November 2024 ceasefire. The IDF’s justification citing Hezbollah infrastructure rebuilding creates ongoing targeting framework.

Tripoli faces immediate humanitarian crisis as two building collapses within two weeks killed around 14 people with many displaced, demonstrating infrastructure deterioration beyond security concerns. Most affected households staying with neighbors in buildings also considered unsafe creates cascading risk.

The asymmetric pattern continues: Hezbollah has launched only one attack in 14 months (December response to repeated attacks), while Israel has violated ceasefire 11,000+ times. Approximately 64,000 Lebanese remain displaced from southern Lebanon and Bekaa Valley.

Following Haykal’s Washington visit (February 3-5), Lebanon enters implementation period evaluating US military support commitments. The anticipated March Paris conference supporting Lebanese army becomes crucial for LAF capacity enhancement.

Phase two disarmament discussions (Litani to Awali River) proceed amid analysis that Hezbollah won’t accept implementation while Israeli attacks continue, creating impossible framework for governmental compliance.

Regional dynamics affected by upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks (Geneva Tuesday), potentially affecting broader security arrangements and Lebanese strategic environment.

Long-term Prospects: Hariri’s potential elections return signals possible political stability improvement while security challenges (today’s strikes, 11,000+ violations, 64,000 displaced) and humanitarian crisis (Tripoli collapses) require comprehensive international support and diplomatic pressure for ceasefire implementation.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: COMPREHENSIVE PROTECTION SERVICES

🏛️ POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT PERIOD – SECURITY AMID OPTIMISM

CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during Lebanon’s political developments (Hariri’s elections hint) while managing continued security challenges (today’s strikes, Tripoli emergency) and humanitarian needs (64,000 displaced).

CURRENT SITUATION SERVICES:

Political Development Security:

• Elections Preparation: Professional security planning for potential parliamentary elections timeline
• Political Activity Protection: Enhanced security for political gatherings and commemorations
• Future Movement Security: Professional coordination during al-Mustaqbal potential return activities
• Campaign Security Planning: Advance preparation for elections period

Active Threat Response:

• IDF Strike Monitoring: Real-time tracking of today’s operations targeting claimed Hezbollah sites
• Southern Zone Security: Professional protection for areas experiencing continued targeting
• Five Occupied Points: Enhanced security near Israeli-held positions
• 11,000+ Violation Environment: Comprehensive security protocols for systematic breach patterns

Tripoli Emergency Response:

• Building Collapse Coordination: Professional emergency response for humanitarian crisis
• Unsafe Structure Assessment: Security for residents near collapse-risk buildings
• Displacement Support: Humanitarian security for affected families
• Infrastructure Monitoring: Professional assessment of building safety risks

Humanitarian Support Security:

• Ramadan Distribution Protection: Security for humanitarian organizations reaching 1,000+ families
• 64,000 Displaced Support: Comprehensive security for displaced population needs
• Shelter Operations: Professional protection for displacement accommodation
• Aid Distribution: Security for Anera and organization humanitarian activities

SPECIALIZED COMPREHENSIVE SERVICES:

Political Transition Security:

• Professional protection during elections preparations and political re-engagement
• Security planning for Future Movement activities and campaign preparations
• Enhanced protection for political gatherings and commemorations
• Comprehensive coordination for potential elections timeline

Post-Haykal Visit Implementation:

• Monitoring US military support commitments and LAF enhancement
• Professional assessment of March Paris conference implications
• Security coordination for LAF capacity building
• International partnership protection

Tripoli Humanitarian Crisis:

• Emergency response for building collapse areas (14 dead)
• Professional assessment of unsafe structures
• Displacement coordination and shelter security
• Infrastructure monitoring for additional collapse risks

📞 COMPREHENSIVE COORDINATION SERVICES

SITUATION ASSESSMENT HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional protection during political developments, security challenges, and humanitarian crisis

POLITICAL SECURITY: Enhanced protection during elections preparations and Future Movement activities
STRIKE RESPONSE: Real-time monitoring of today’s IDF operations and ongoing violations
TRIPOLI EMERGENCY: Professional coordination for building collapse humanitarian crisis
DISPLACEMENT SUPPORT: Comprehensive security for 64,000 displaced persons

Specialized Service Centers:

• Political Development Center: Security for elections preparations and political activities
• Active Threat Center: Monitoring today’s strikes and 11,000+ violation environment
• Tripoli Emergency Center: Humanitarian crisis response and building safety
• Displacement Support: Professional security for 64,000 displaced requiring assistance

During Lebanon’s political development (Hariri’s elections hint), continued security challenges (today’s IDF strikes, 11,000+ violations), humanitarian emergency (Tripoli collapses 14 dead), and displacement crisis (64,000 persons), CIS Security provides comprehensive protection enabling political engagement, civilian safety, and humanitarian support.

⚠️ COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONAL NOTICE

TODAY’S DEVELOPMENTS: Former PM Saad Hariri hints at al-Mustaqbal Movement’s potential return to parliamentary elections creating political optimism while today’s IDF strikes continue 11,000+ violation pattern and Tripoli building collapses (14 dead) demonstrate humanitarian crisis.

Complex Environment: Political development signaling stability prospects balanced by continued security challenges (today’s strikes), infrastructure crisis (Tripoli collapses), and humanitarian needs (64,000 displaced, Ramadan distributions).

Professional Commitment: CIS Security supports Lebanon’s political development while providing comprehensive protection during continued violations, humanitarian emergencies, and displacement crisis requiring sustained international support.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s significant political development (Hariri’s elections hint), continued security challenges (today’s IDF strikes, 11,000+ violations), humanitarian emergency (Tripoli collapses 14 dead), and displacement crisis (64,000 persons), trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive protection enabling political engagement, civilian safety, humanitarian operations, and economic activities. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting Lebanon’s stability prospects while managing ongoing challenges.

CIS Security Comprehensive Services:

• Political Development Security – Protection for elections preparations and Future Movement re-engagement
• Strike Response Monitoring – Real-time tracking of today’s IDF operations and 11,000+ violations
• Tripoli Emergency Response – Professional coordination for building collapse crisis (14 dead)
• Displacement Support – Comprehensive security for 64,000 displaced persons
• Humanitarian Protection – Security for Ramadan distributions reaching 1,000+ families
• International Coordination – Professional liaison for March Paris conference and US-Iran talks

Why Choose CIS During Complex Periods: ✓ 35+ Years Comprehensive Experience – Proven security during political, humanitarian, and violation challenges
✓ Political Development Support – Professional protection for elections preparations and activities
✓ Strike Response – Real-time monitoring of today’s operations and systematic violations
✓ Tripoli Emergency – Humanitarian crisis coordination for building collapses
✓ Displacement Support – Comprehensive protection for 64,000 displaced persons
✓ Complete Services – Security enabling political stability, civilian safety, and humanitarian aid

Today’s Comprehensive Support: 📞 Coordination Hotline: +961-3-539900
💬 Political Security: Protection during elections preparations and Future Movement activities
🌐 Complete Services: www.cissecurity.net – Comprehensive protection and humanitarian support
📧 Emergency Response: Professional coordination for Tripoli crisis and displacement needs

Serving all Lebanese governorates during political development (Hariri’s elections hint), continued violations (today’s IDF strikes, 11,000+ total), humanitarian emergency (Tripoli collapses 14 dead), and displacement crisis (64,000 persons requiring support). CIS Security – Your trusted partner providing comprehensive protection enabling Lebanon’s political stability prospects under President Aoun and PM Salam while managing ongoing security, humanitarian, and infrastructure challenges requiring sustained professional response.