Phase 2’s announcement represents the Aoun-Salam government’s most direct confrontation yet with Hezbollah. The Lebanese state is now formally committed to disarming the Iran-backed group in the Litani-to-Awali zone — territory where Hezbollah maintains significant political and social infrastructure. The four-month minimum timeline is explicitly extendable based on LAF capabilities, Israeli attacks, and “field obstacles” — widely understood as a reference to Hezbollah resistance.

Hezbollah’s response has been swift and categorical. Secretary-General Qassem called the disarmament effort “a grave sin.” Lawmaker Fadlallah pledged the group would not be “lenient.” Most dramatically, Shia ministers physically walked out of the cabinet — an act with no recent precedent. This signals a potential governing coalition breakdown that, if it deepens, could paralyze cabinet decision-making in the critical pre-election period.

The IDF escalation layer adds dangerous instability. Israeli military analysts confirm strike escalation is partly preparation for a potential Iran confrontation. With 12 Hezbollah and PIJ operatives killed in Lebanon since February 1, and the unprecedented Majdal Anjar Beqaa strike killing four on Sunday, the operational tempo is at its highest sustained level since the November 2024 ceasefire. This escalation gives Hezbollah political justification — as Carnegie’s Michael Young has noted — to argue that disarmament exposes the community to Israeli aggression at the moment it is most vulnerable.

Lebanon now faces three overlapping countdowns: the May 10 election (82 days), the UNIFIL mandate expiration (December 31, 2026), and the Phase 2 disarmament window (120+ days). These timelines intersect in ways that amplify risk. A contested election could produce a stronger Hezbollah bloc, undermining the government’s disarmament mandate. UNIFIL’s departure removes the primary ceasefire monitoring mechanism. And each Israeli strike during Phase 2 makes the political case for Hezbollah’s continued armament stronger in the eyes of its constituency.