CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Feb 25 2026

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 | Ramadan Day 8

🔴 INDEX LEVEL: CRITICAL — MAXIMUM DANGER OVERALL INDEX: 92/100 ⬆️ HIGHEST EVER RECORDED TREND: ⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING

HEADLINE SUMMARY: 🚨 US ORDERS BEIRUT EMBASSY EVACUATION | ISRAEL THREATENS TO STRIKE BEIRUT AIRPORT | ANSAR-ZARARIYEH STRIKES TODAY | ISRAELI FIRE ON LEBANESE ARMY POSITION (SARDA) | RIYAQ MASSACRE — 10 DEAD INCLUDING 3 CHILDREN | AIN AL-HILWEH REFUGEE CAMP STRUCK | PARIS CONFERENCE MARCH 5 — CAIRO PREP MEETING HELD | HRW & AMNESTY DEMAND WAR CRIMES ACCOUNTABILITY | PM SALAM: DISARMAMENT “IRREVERSIBLE” | F-22s DEPLOYED TO ISRAEL | 380+ KILLED SINCE CEASEFIRE

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25, 2026

🔴 BREAKING #1 — STRIKES ON ANSAR AND ZARARIYEH TODAY — NORTH OF LITANI

[LiveUAMap Lebanon / NNA — February 25, 2026, confirmed today]

Two Israeli raids targeted the area between Ansar and Al-Zarariyeh, north of the Litani River, today — with columns of smoke and flames visible. This is the Phase 2 disarmament corridor — the Lebanese Army’s current operational zone. Israeli strikes inside the active disarmament zone directly undermine Beirut’s strategy and validate Hezbollah’s argument that disarmament while under bombardment is impossible. Today’s attacks confirm the pattern of near-daily operations that has persisted throughout Ramadan.

🔴 BREAKING #2 — ISRAEL FIRES ON LEBANESE ARMY POSITION AT SARDA — ARMY ORDERS TROOPS TO RETURN FIRE

[Al Jazeera, Middle East Monitor, Anadolu, Islam Times — February 24, confirmed today]

In one of the most alarming developments in weeks, Israeli forces fired on a Lebanese Army observation post being constructed near Sarda in the Marjayoun District — Lebanese sovereign territory. The Lebanese Army issued a formal statement confirming the incident:

• Army forces were setting up a legitimate monitoring point when the area came under Israeli gunfire
• An Israeli drone flew at low altitude over the site issuing threats to force Lebanese soldiers to withdraw
• The army command issued unprecedented orders: “reinforce the post, remain there, and return fire”
• NNA Lebanon reported Israeli forces also threw stun grenades from the El Hamames position toward Lebanese soldiers
• The army said it is coordinating with the ceasefire oversight committee and UNIFIL

Israel’s military confirmed it fired “warning shots” after Lebanese soldiers established a post “without coordination,” claiming it contacted Lebanese forces via liaison channels and received no response. Lebanon rejected this justification.

This marks a direct military confrontation between Israeli forces and the Lebanese Army — the state’s armed forces — a qualitative escalation beyond targeting Hezbollah operatives. The Lebanese Army is now directly in Israel’s crosshairs on its own sovereign territory.

🔴 BREAKING #3 — ISRAEL THREATENS TO STRIKE BEIRUT AIRPORT AND CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE IF HEZBOLLAH ENTERS IRAN WAR

[Reuters, FT, Washington Times, Naharnet — February 24-25, 2026]

Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji, speaking in Geneva at the UN Human Rights Council session, confirmed that Lebanon has received direct signals from Israel threatening catastrophic strikes on civilian infrastructure if Hezbollah becomes involved in any US-Iran military exchange.

Rajji stated: “Lebanon has received signs that the Israelis could strike civilian infrastructure and maybe the airport” in Beirut. He said Lebanese authorities had warned that in a new Israel-Hezbollah war, Israel would strike harder against civilian infrastructure than in the 2024 conflict — when the airport was notably spared. Rajji confirmed Lebanon has formally urged Hezbollah not to intervene in any US-Iran hostilities.

The threat to Rafic Hariri International Airport — the only functioning air exit for Lebanon — represents an existential threat to Lebanon’s connectivity and to the hundreds of thousands who may need to evacuate in a conflict scenario. In the 2006 war, Israel struck the airport. This time, signals suggest an even broader and more devastating strike campaign.

🔴 BREAKING #4 — US ORDERS EMBASSY BEIRUT EVACUATION — LEVEL 4: DO NOT TRAVEL

[AP, Military.com, Fox News, PBS, US Embassy Beirut — February 23, 2026]

The United States ordered the departure of all non-emergency US government personnel and their family members from US Embassy Beirut on February 23, 2026. This is the most significant US diplomatic action in Lebanon since the start of the current crisis. Key facts:

• 50 people evacuated; 32 embassy staff plus family members flew out of Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport
• Lebanon Travel Advisory remains Level 4 — Do Not Travel (highest level)
• The US Embassy has suspended routine consular services; Americans told to contact beirutacs@state.gov for emergencies only
• Americans in Lebanon are “strongly encouraged to depart now” — flights may be cancelled at any time
• The trigger: A similar ordered departure was imposed for Beirut and other regional embassies shortly before Trump ordered military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities last June — making this a recognised bellwether for imminent military action
• MTV Lebanon reported the move was triggered by “great concern” after Iranian state TV channel Al Alam broadcast targeting videos of the US Embassy in Beirut and Hamat Air Base on February 14 under the title “Under Surveillance”
• Hezbollah Secretary-General Qassem stated in January that his group views Trump’s threats to Iran as “a direct threat to Hezbollah” and that Hezbollah “reserved every right to do whatever we deem appropriate”

This is the single most alarming diplomatic signal yet that US-Iran-Lebanon conflict is considered imminent by Washington.

🔴 BREAKING #5 — RIYAQ MASSACRE: 10 KILLED INCLUDING 3 CHILDREN IN BAALBEK STRIKES (FEB 20)

[AP, Euronews, NBC, Middle East Monitor, FDD Long War Journal — February 20-21]

On Friday February 20, Israel launched its most deadly single-night attack since the ceasefire: strikes on the Riyaq–Baalbek corridor killed 10 people and wounded 24, including three children. Confirmed details:

• Three Israeli airstrikes targeted Mahallet al Shaara on the Riyaq-Baalbek Highway, completely levelling a building near a branch of Hezbollah’s Al Qard Al Hassan lending institution
• Lebanon’s Health Ministry confirmed 10 dead; Hezbollah announced 8 of its operatives killed, including three local commanders: Ali al-Moussawi, Mohammed al-Moussawi, and Hussein Yaghi — son of Hezbollah co-founder Mohammed Yaghi (close aide to Hassan Nasrallah)
• Among the dead: one Syrian man and one Ethiopian woman — confirmed civilians
• Three children were wounded; AP correspondents visited the scene the following day and documented the complete destruction of the building’s top floor
• On the same night, additional strikes hit Qasrnaba and Tamnin al-Tahta west of Baalbek, and Mahallet al Shaara in the Anti-Lebanon Mountain Range
• Governor of Baalbek-Hermel confirmed: 9 dead and 40 wounded in the broader raid series on the Bekaa Valley that night
• The IDF said it “eliminated” Hezbollah members “operating to accelerate readiness and force build-up processes, while planning fire attacks toward Israel”
• Hezbollah vowed renewed resistance following the strikes

This attack — the largest loss of life in a single Israeli operation since the ceasefire — has dramatically hardened positions and is the immediate backdrop to today’s maximum-alert environment.

🔴 BREAKING #6 — AIN AL-HILWEH REFUGEE CAMP STRUCK — HAMAS TARGETED INSIDE SIDON (FEB 20)

[Al Jazeera, Palestine Chronicle, Times of Israel, FDD LWJ — February 20]

On the same night as the Riyaq massacre, Israel struck Ain al-Hilweh, Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon, killing at least 2-3 people and wounding several. The IDF claimed it targeted a Hamas command and training centre in the Hittin neighbourhood. Hamas denied military use of the building. Lebanese security forces imposed a cordon. Israeli drones continued surveillance over Sidon and Ain al-Hilweh throughout the night.

This marks Israel’s second strike on Ain al-Hilweh since the ceasefire (after a November 2025 strike that killed 11). The camp houses tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees in densely packed urban conditions, making any military strike extraordinarily dangerous for civilians. The International Crisis Group documents that the IDF has killed 13 Hamas members at a training compound in southern Lebanon — demonstrating a sustained counter-Hamas campaign running parallel to the Hezbollah disarmament process.

🔴 BREAKING #7 — ISRAELI OPERATIONS: FEB 16–22 DOCUMENTED — 14 KILLED, 27 WOUNDED, 25 LOCALES

[FDD Long War Journal — February 23, 2026]

The most comprehensive documented summary of last week’s Israeli operations confirms the sustained intensity of military activity:

Killed Feb 16–22: 14 people — 10 Hezbollah operatives, 2 Hamas operatives, 1 Syrian civilian, 1 Ethiopian civilian Wounded: 27 individuals, including 3 children Locales struck: Operations in 25 Lebanese locations, some more than once, including:

• Baalbek District: Anti-Lebanon Mountain Range, Mahallet al Shaara, Mount Lebanon Range, Qasrnaba, Riyaq, Tamnin al-Tahta
• Bint Jbeil District: Aitaroun, Ayta Ash Shaab, Beit Lif, Hanine, Maroun al Ras, Yaroun
• Marjayoun District: Adaisseh, Houla, Khiam, Markaba, Sarda-Wazzani

Notably, IDF Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo ordered a more aggressive approach mid-week, emphasising targeted killings, tunnel shaft and weapons depot strikes, and expanded freedom of action in southern Lebanon. The aggressive posture followed two quiet days (Feb 18-19) and dramatically escalated on Feb 20.

🔴 BREAKING #8 — HRW AND AMNESTY: DEMAND JUSTICE, TRUTH AND REPARATIONS — TODAY

[Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch — February 25, 2026 — PUBLISHED TODAY]

In a joint letter published today (February 25), five leading human rights organisations — Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Legal Agenda, Union of Journalists in Lebanon, and Reporters Without Borders — wrote to Lebanon’s Justice Minister and Deputy Prime Minister demanding immediate action on justice, truth and reparations for Lebanese civilians.

Key findings and demands:

• Israel has conducted near-daily attacks since the ceasefire, killing over 380 people — including at least 127 confirmed civilians
• “For thousands of families, ‘post-ceasefire’ has not meant safety or stability. It has meant prolonged displacement, devastated livelihoods, and the anguish of living in limbo”
• The Lebanese government has failed to launch domestic investigations or accept ICC jurisdiction despite a year of documented violations
• Israel must “immediately allow safe return for Lebanese still displaced” and provide full reparations
• One year after the withdrawal deadline, tens of thousands of Lebanese remain unable to return to border villages
• Israel has maintained troops at five “strategic vantage points” beyond the withdrawal deadline; its defense minister declared forces “staying indefinitely” in a border buffer zone last year

🔴 BREAKING #9 — PARIS CONFERENCE MARCH 5: CAIRO PREP MEETING HELD; ROADMAP BEING BUILT

[Asharq Al-Awsat, Naharnet — February 24-25, 2026]

A major preparatory meeting for the Paris Conference on Lebanese Army Support (March 5, 2026) was held in Cairo on Tuesday under Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Key participants:

• France represented by Macron’s special envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian and Gen. Valentin Seiler (France’s ceasefire mechanism representative)
• The full Technical Military Committee (USA, Italy, UK, Spain, Germany)
• The Quintet (France, USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt)

The Cairo meeting formally presented the Lebanese Army’s needs — both material and financial — ahead of the Paris conference. France described it as “the result of close coordination among Quintet members in terms of content, format and objectives.” The conference’s goal: rally coordinated international assistance and “reaffirm the international community’s political, financial and technical support” for Lebanese state institutions.

PM Salam meanwhile reaffirmed that Hezbollah disarmament is “irreversible” despite Hezbollah’s continued rejection. The Quintet envoys met in Cairo specifically in preparation for Paris, with Doha hosting additional preparatory meetings.

🔴 BREAKING #10 — IDF ORDERS: EXPANDED FREEDOM OF ACTION; 1,200+ RAIDS SINCE CEASEFIRE

[Times of Israel — February 19, 2026]

The IDF’s own summary confirms the scale of post-ceasefire military operations: since November 2024, Israeli forces have killed over 400 Hezbollah operatives, struck hundreds of Hezbollah sites, and conducted over 1,200 raids and other operations in southern Lebanon. The IDF continues to describe Hezbollah as actively attempting to rearm and regenerate, and Israel’s stated policy is to continue strikes regardless of Lebanese Army disarmament progress unless and until Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is fully dismantled — a standard the army’s own operations have not yet met.

🔴 BREAKING #11 — GERMAN NAVY FRIGATE IN EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN TODAY

[LiveUAMap — February 25, 2026 — TODAY]

The German Navy frigate Nordrhein-Westfalen (F223), a Baden-Württemberg-class (F125) frigate, appeared on AIS tracking today operating off the coast of Lebanon/Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. Combined with the US military buildup (two carrier strike groups, 150+ aircraft relocated, F-22s sent to Israel), the European naval presence signals a significant international military concentration in Lebanese coastal waters.

🔴 BREAKING #12 — F-22 RAPTORS SENT TO ISRAEL AS US-IRAN STANDOFF INTENSIFIES

[Just Security, NYT, Washington Post — February 24-25, 2026]

A dozen F-22 Raptor stealth fighters flew from the United Kingdom to Israel on February 24 — confirmed by plane spotters’ videos and photos. The US military has now relocated more than 150 aircraft to bases in Europe and the Middle East since the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks ended on February 17 — surpassing the military buildup seen before Trump ordered strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities last June. Experts describe the buildup as providing Trump with “several options for a potential strike even as talks may continue.”

For Lebanon: The Beirut embassy evacuation + F-22 deployment to Israel + airport strike threat = a convergence of indicators that places Lebanon at the precipice of a potential catastrophic escalation if Iran-US hostilities commence.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 88/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING

Beirut faces its most dangerous moment since the November 2024 ceasefire. The convergence of three simultaneous threats — US embassy evacuation, Israel’s airport strike threat, and Hezbollah’s declared refusal to stay out of an Iran conflict — places the Lebanese capital in extraordinary jeopardy.

US Embassy Status: Non-emergency personnel evacuated February 23. Routine consular services suspended. Americans urged to depart immediately. The embassy’s last-resort evacuation posture is not merely precautionary — the same pattern preceded Trump’s Iran nuclear strikes last June. Commercial flights may be cancelled “at any time.”

Airport Threat: Lebanon’s own Foreign Minister has confirmed Israel warned it would strike Rafic Hariri International Airport if Hezbollah enters any Iran war. During the 2006 war Israel struck the airport — but diplomatic signals now suggest this round would be more destructive across all civilian infrastructure.

Political Scene: PM Salam declared disarmament “irreversible” on February 24 — a direct challenge to Hezbollah. Army Chief Haykal met Parliament Speaker Berri as Phase 2 underway. Quintet envoys in Cairo preparing Paris conference. Today’s Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes (in the Phase 2 zone) demonstrate Israel’s absolute indifference to the disarmament timeline.

Ramadan Context: Ramadan Day 8 in Beirut proceeds under extraordinary shadow. Road-blocking protests against fuel/VAT increases have largely subsided but economic hardship persists. The city’s sense of normalcy is brittle — airport departure queues have reportedly grown as residents watch the diplomatic indicators.

Key Factors Today: US embassy evacuation posture maintained; airport strike threat active; F-22s in region; Paris conference 8 days away; elections 74 days away.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Mount Lebanon is not directly targeted but remains acutely exposed to the consequences of any Iran-related escalation. Displaced southern families, many without adequate reconstruction support, face a new anxiety: if a wider war erupts, displacement will deepen and reconstruction prospects will collapse entirely.

The fuel and VAT protest movement that erupted in Ramadan’s first days has partially subsided but economic grievances remain. Ramadan Day 8 household budgets remain severely strained by price increases.

Iranian state TV’s designation of Hamat Air Base — located in the Keserwan-Jbeil area of Mount Lebanon — as a “surveillance target” creates a specific military risk for the governorate if Iran-linked forces attempt strikes on US facilities.

Key Factor: Hamat Air Base Iran targeting risk; displaced population vulnerability; economic stress in Ramadan.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Tripoli and the north continue under severe economic stress. The fuel protest movement, which also saw roads blocked “from Beirut to Akkar” per LiveUAMap’s confirmed reports, has disrupted commerce and movement. Lebanon’s second city remains one of the country’s most economically vulnerable areas.

The Syria border dimension adds ongoing complexity. The Lebanese Army continues border operations. The US Embassy’s advisory explicitly warns Americans to “avoid the Lebanon-Syria border” due to “clashes between Lebanese security forces and Syrian-based groups, as well as recent airstrikes.”

Key Factor: Ongoing fuel/economic protest legacy; Syria border military activity; north Lebanon exposed if wider Iran conflict erupts.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 82/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated-Escalating

Akkar’s Syria border exposure is now formally a US Embassy-designated danger zone. The border region has seen clashes between Lebanese security forces and Syrian-based groups, and the US advises all citizens to depart the area immediately. Fuel price protests also reached Akkar, with reports of Beirut-to-Akkar road blockages.

Economically, Akkar — one of Lebanon’s poorest governorates — faces some of the most acute Ramadan hardship from fuel and VAT increases.

Key Factor: US-designated danger zone at Syria border; fuel crisis acute impact; economic vulnerability during Ramadan.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 93/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ MAXIMUM ESCALATION RISK

The Beqaa Valley has become the single most deadly non-coastal governorate in Lebanon over the past week. The Riyaq massacre of February 20 — 10 dead including 3 children, 24 wounded — is the worst single Israeli strike since the ceasefire and occurred here. This is now compounded by today’s strikes on Ansar-Zarariyeh (on the western Beqaa edge) and the cumulative operational picture.

Riyaq-Baalbek Highway is now a confirmed active strike corridor. The building struck on February 20 was completely levelled; the governor reported 9 dead and 40 wounded in the broader Bekaa strike series that night. The communities of Nabi Sheet, Baalbek, Tamnin, Badnayel, and surrounding areas all sustained strikes.

Iran escalation risk dominates here above all other factors. The Bekaa is Hezbollah’s strategic homeland, the primary Iranian weapons corridor through Syria, and the most likely initial battleground if Iran is struck and Hezbollah re-mobilises. IDF Northern Command’s order for “expanded freedom of action” means the Beqaa faces maximum strike intensity — potentially surpassing anything seen since the 2024 war — if US-Iran hostilities commence.

Glyphosate/herbicide contamination is spreading concern among Bekaa Valley farmers. Agricultural operations near affected Blue Line zones are suspended pending health assessment.

Key Factor: Site of deadliest recent strike (Riyaq massacre); today’s Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes; Iran escalation makes this Lebanon’s most kinetically exposed governorate; agricultural contamination.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 95/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ MOST DANGEROUS GOVERNORATE IN LEBANON

Baalbek-Hermel is today Lebanon’s most dangerous governorate. The Riyaq massacre occurred here. IDF Northern Command has explicitly ordered expanded operations against Hezbollah regeneration in this zone. Three Hezbollah local commanders were eliminated in the February 20 strikes, including the son of Hezbollah co-founder Mohammed Yaghi — a strike with significant organisational impact on Hezbollah’s local command structure.

The IDF has now struck: the Riyaq-Baalbek Highway, Mahallet al Shaara, Tamnin al-Tahta, Qasrnaba, the Anti-Lebanon Mountain Range corridor, and multiple Nabi Sheet-adjacent locations — all within the past week. The operational pattern is systematic decapitation of Hezbollah’s Bekaa missile and command units.

Hezbollah vowed “renewed resistance” after the February 20 strikes. This creates an acute confrontation risk: Hezbollah under pressure to demonstrate it has not been neutralised, Israel determined to degrade its regeneration capacity, and any Hezbollah response potentially triggering an even larger Israeli strike wave.

If Iran is struck by US-Israeli forces, Baalbek-Hermel will be the first and most intense Lebanese theatre of Hezbollah’s military response. The governor’s reports of 9 dead and 40 wounded in a single night reflect the humanitarian catastrophe already unfolding.

Phase 2 disarmament in Baalbek-Hermel is effectively impossible without a prior political resolution with Hezbollah. The army’s “understandings approach” has no traction here.

Key Factor: Highest death toll from recent strikes; IDF escalated operations order; Hezbollah vow of renewed resistance; Iran escalation = immediate battleground; 95/100 — highest index in Lebanon.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ NEW RISK FACTOR — HAMAT AIR BASE

Keserwan-Jbeil now carries a specific new risk factor: Hamat Air Base — located in this governorate — has been designated as an Iranian surveillance target in Al Alam TV broadcasts, and MTV Lebanon reported that these videos were a direct trigger for the US Embassy evacuation. Pro-Hezbollah media personalities have been spreading claims about Hamat being a US military staging ground, though these remain unverified.

If Iran or Hezbollah were to strike at US military-linked facilities as part of an Iran conflict response, Hamat would be a credible target — placing Keserwan-Jbeil in direct danger for the first time.

The broader economic stress from fuel/VAT hikes and Ramadan household pressures continues.

Key Factor: Hamat Air Base Iran targeting designation is a new, specific escalation risk; otherwise elevated but stable economic stress picture.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 95/100 🔴 | Trend: CRITICAL — ACTIVE WAR CONDITIONS

South Lebanon shares the highest index in today’s report alongside Baalbek-Hermel. Active conditions today and this week:

TODAY — Ansar-Zarariyeh Strikes: Two Israeli raids on the area north of the Litani (confirmed today per NNA/LiveUAMap) — inside the Phase 2 disarmament corridor, with smoke and flames reported.

Sarda Incident — Lebanese Army Directly Targeted: On February 24, Israeli forces fired on Lebanese Army soldiers establishing a monitoring post in Sarda. The army ordered troops to return fire. An Israeli drone flew low issuing threats to force withdrawal. This is a direct military confrontation between Israel and Lebanon’s state armed forces — a qualitative escalation of exceptional significance.

February 16–22 documented operations in South Lebanon Governorate:

• Beit Lif, Hanine, Maroun al Ras, Yaroun, Aitaroun, Ayta Ash Shaab (Bint Jbeil District)
• Adaisseh, Houla, Khiam, Markaba, Sarda-Wazzani (Marjayoun District)
• Machine-gun fire on Marwahin and Shihine; artillery on Beit Lif-Ramyeh; stonework factory in Markaba drone-struck; stun grenades in Houla and Maroun al Ras

Five Occupied Israeli Positions: Unchanged. These positions — which the Lebanese Army explicitly cannot operate near — serve as launch points for incursions, house demolitions, and fire on Lebanese forces (as at Sarda-El Hamames).

Glyphosate Contamination: Confirmed toxic herbicide spraying north of Blue Line on February 1 continues to affect agricultural communities. UNIFIL collected samples. Lebanese president condemned as “environmental crime.” UN OHCHR flagged long-term livelihood damage.

Ain al-Hilweh (Sidon): Refugee camp struck February 20; 2-3 killed, several wounded. Hamas targeted inside densely populated civilian camp. Israeli drones maintained surveillance over Sidon afterward.

Displacement: Tens of thousands remain unable to return to border villages. Five Israeli-occupied positions block reconstruction. HRW and Amnesty published today demanding Israel allow returns.

Key Factor TODAY: Active strikes in Phase 2 zone (Ansar-Zarariyeh); Lebanese Army directly fired upon (Sarda); 1,200+ IDF raids since ceasefire; airport threat; HRW/Amnesty war crimes demands published today; most kinetically active Lebanese governorate.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 93/100 🔴 | Trend: Critical-Sustained

Nabatieh Governorate has been struck in all three weeks of February documented by the FDD Long War Journal. The February 16–22 week alone saw operations across the Bint Jbeil and Marjayoun districts: Aitaroun, Ayta Ash Shaab, Beit Lif, Hanine, Maroun al Ras, Yaroun, Adaisseh, Houla, Khiam, Markaba, Sarda-Wazzani.

The Sarda incident — Israeli fire on the Lebanese Army — occurred within Nabatieh’s Marjayoun District. The Lebanese Army’s extraordinary order to “reinforce the post, remain there, and return fire” means Nabatieh is now the site of a potential direct Israel-Lebanon Army confrontation.

Hanine continues to be targeted: on February 22, an Israeli drone struck a vehicle in Hanine — killing Mohammad Tahsin Hussain Qashaqesh, who reportedly used the vehicle to transport students to school. The IDF claimed he was a Hezbollah operative. Hezbollah-affiliated media confirmed his death as a fighter. His vehicle was the kind used for school transportation.

Ayta al-Shaab remains in systematic forced displacement conditions: fewer than 52 residents remain from a population of approximately 15,000. The mayor has formally declared this is deliberate Israeli strategy through grenades, incursions, and chemical spraying.

Key Factor: Lebanese Army directly fired upon at Sarda; Hanine school transportation vehicle struck; Ayta al-Shaab forced displacement ongoing; near-daily operations across all three districts.

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25, 2026

🔥 THREAT TIERING — CONFIRMED TODAY AND THIS WEEK

TIER 1 — ACTIVE KINETIC THREATS (RIGHT NOW):

1. Ansar-Zarariyeh (South Lebanon/Sidon District) — Two confirmed Israeli raids TODAY; columns of smoke and flame
2. Baalbek-Hermel Corridor — IDF expanded operations order in effect; Riyaq massacre Feb 20; ongoing Bekaa strikes
3. Sarda-Marjayoun (Nabatieh) — Lebanese Army post fired upon Feb 24; troops ordered to return fire; standoff unresolved
4. Ain al-Hilweh/Sidon — Refugee camp struck Feb 20; drone surveillance ongoing; densely populated civilian area
5. Blue Line zone/Glyphosate areas — Chemical contamination confirmed; agricultural and health emergency

TIER 1 — CATASTROPHIC ESCALATION RISKS: 6. Beirut — Airport Strike Threat — Israel formally warned Lebanon it will strike airport if Hezbollah enters Iran war 7. US Embassy Evacuation Zone — Non-emergency personnel departed; consular services suspended; Americans urged to leave NOW 8. Hamat Air Base (Keserwan-Jbeil) — Designated Iranian surveillance target; potential Hezbollah/Iran strike objective 9. Iran War Trigger — F-22s now in Israel; 150+ US aircraft relocated; second carrier arriving; Beirut evacuation mirrors pre-June Iran strike pattern

TIER 2 — ELEVATED AND ESCALATING: 10. All of Baalbek-Hermel — Near-certain immediate battleground if US-Iran military exchange occurs 11. Phase 2 Disarmament Friction — Lebanese Army advancing despite Hezbollah rejection; friction risk in Sidon corridor 12. Hezbollah Renewed Resistance Pledge — Post-Riyaq vow creates pressure for Hezbollah to demonstrate capability 13. Syria Border (Akkar/Hermel) — US Embassy-designated danger zone; clashes and strikes confirmed 14. Beirut Southern Suburbs (Dahieh) — International Crisis Group documents past IDF strikes on Dahieh precision missile infrastructure

⚠️ IRAN WAR SPECIAL ASSESSMENT — FEBRUARY 25, 2026

STATUS: IMMINENT RISK WINDOW OPEN

The convergence of indicators today represents the highest probability of US-Iranian military exchange since the start of the crisis:

The Beirut embassy ordered departure is historically the most reliable pre-conflict indicator. It preceded Trump’s Iranian nuclear strikes last June by days. The same pattern is now active.

If conflict occurs, Lebanon faces:

• Hezbollah re-mobilisation from Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, Nabatieh
• Israeli pre-emptive or retaliatory strikes across Lebanon — potentially including Beirut airport, southern suburbs, Bekaa infrastructure
• Collapse of the November 2024 ceasefire framework
• Mass civilian displacement surge beyond the current 64,000
• Complete disruption of commercial air access to Lebanon (airport strike threat)
• Potential full-scale war conditions not seen since September-November 2024

CIS Security advises all clients: EMERGENCY PLANS MUST BE ACTIVATED NOW, NOT WHEN CONFLICT BEGINS.

📊 FULL STATUS DASHBOARD — FEBRUARY 25, 2026

📱 SECURITY GUIDANCE — WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25, 2026

🚨 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — ALL RESIDENTS AND FOREIGN NATIONALS:

THE US GOVERNMENT HAS ORDERED ITS OWN PERSONNEL TO LEAVE LEBANON. COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS MAY BE CANCELLED AT ANY TIME. ANYONE WHO INTENDS TO DEPART SHOULD DO SO IMMEDIATELY.

FOR ALL FOREIGN NATIONALS IN LEBANON: Contact your country’s embassy immediately. The US Embassy has suspended consular services for Americans (emergency: beirutacs@state.gov). Other Western embassies are monitoring the situation. Commercial airport (Rafic Hariri International) remains open but flights may be cancelled with no warning. Book earliest available departure.

FOR LEBANESE RESIDENTS:

• South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, Bekaa: Do not travel to or through these areas under any circumstances. Strikes are active daily. The Riyaq massacre and today’s Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes demonstrate there is no safe time or safe location in these zones.
• Beirut: Monitor airport threat situation hourly. Have emergency shelter plans. Know your building’s structural integrity. Have 72-hour emergency supplies (water, food, medications).
• All governorates: Have personal evacuation plan in place. Know routes by road if airport closes. Identify family coordination point.

🏠 SHELTER AND SAFETY:

• Avoid large gatherings, fuel protests, public demonstrations — these may be targeted or caught in escalation
• Avoid areas near military installations, especially Hamat Air Base zone and Lebanese Army checkpoints near the southern border
• Do not approach the Blue Line zone or areas of known glyphosate contamination
• Stock emergency supplies: minimum 72-hour water supply, non-perishable food, essential medications, identification documents, cash

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY — TODAY:

🌙 RAMADAN — DAY 8 SECURITY NOTE

Ramadan Day 8 (February 25) falls at the intersection of the holy month’s deepening spiritual focus and Lebanon’s most dangerous security environment since the 2024 war. The contrast could not be more stark: millions of Lebanese observe iftar and tarawih prayers while:

• Israeli forces struck Ansar-Zarariyeh today during daylight hours
• The US Embassy is evacuated and urging all Americans to leave
• Israel has threatened to bomb Beirut’s airport
• 380+ Lebanese have been killed since the ceasefire
• 64,000 remain displaced from their Ramadan homes
• F-22 stealth fighters are now stationed in Israel

Families in Baalbek who lost fathers, sons, and neighbours in the Riyaq massacre (February 20) are observing Ramadan amid fresh grief and rubble. Villagers in Ayta al-Shaab — where 52 of 15,000 residents remain — are fasting in an effectively abandoned village under systematic displacement pressure.

CIS Security extends Ramadan Mubarak to all Lebanese communities and remains fully committed to community protection throughout the holy month and whatever security environment follows it.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — EMERGENCY OPERATIONS | RAMADAN 2026

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 — “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company | 35+ Years | All Governorates

🚨 EMERGENCY SERVICES — ACTIVATED NOW:

Iran Escalation Emergency Planning Immediate scenario planning for US-Iran military exchange and Lebanon re-engagement; evacuation route design by governorate; business continuity emergency assessment; family reunification protocols

Embassy Evacuation Support Professional coordination for foreign national departures; airport access route security; alternative overland evacuation planning; liaison with diplomatic security services

Airport Threat Monitoring Real-time assessment of Beirut airport operational status; alternative departure planning (overland to Syria — note: high-risk; sea evacuation options); private charter coordination

South Lebanon Emergency Response Real-time tracking of Ansar-Zarariyeh and all south Lebanon strike activity; glyphosate zone mapping; Lebanese Army operational zone monitoring; UNIFIL coordination intelligence

Bekaa Crisis Management Riyaq-Baalbek corridor threat assessment; active Hezbollah resistance monitoring post-Feb 20 vow; Iran escalation Bekaa impact assessment

Community Ramadan Protection Enhanced security for mosques, iftar gatherings, community activities in elevated-risk zones; displaced family security consulting; economic crisis coordination support

📞 CONTACT CIS SECURITY — AVAILABLE 24/7

Emergency Hotline: +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net

Services: Emergency evacuation planning | Protective detail | Real-time strike intelligence | Airport monitoring | Route security | Diplomatic mission support | Business continuity | Community protection

Serving all Lebanese governorates: Beirut | Mount Lebanon | North Lebanon & Tripoli | Akkar | Bekaa | Baalbek-Hermel | Keserwan-Jbeil | South Lebanon | Nabatieh

⚠️ CRITICAL OPERATIONAL NOTICE — FEBRUARY 25, 2026

MAXIMUM ALERT. THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN LEBANON HAS REACHED ITS MOST DANGEROUS POINT SINCE THE 2024 WAR.

The US embassy evacuation, F-22 deployment to Israel, Israel’s airport strike threat, F-22s surpassing the pre-June Iran strike buildup, the Riyaq massacre, Israeli fire on the Lebanese Army at Sarda, and today’s Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes form a pattern of convergent escalation indicators that CIS Security has not recorded at this intensity since the onset of the 2024 war.

DO NOT WAIT FOR CONFLICT TO BEGIN BEFORE ACTIVATING YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN.

Paris Conference: March 5 — 8 days away. Its success is Lebanon’s best near-term diplomatic lifeline for army support and international engagement. Its failure would remove the principal diplomatic buffer to total state collapse.

Elections: May 10, 2026 — 74 days away. All current political decisions — including the disarmament approach, the Iran stance, and the diplomatic line — are being shaped by this countdown.

CIS Security is fully operational across all Lebanese governorates. Contact us immediately to review and activate your emergency security plan.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — Wednesday, February 25, 2026 | Ramadan Day 8 All events cited are verified from named, credible sources published within the past 72 hours: AP; Reuters; Al Jazeera; FDD Long War Journal (Feb 16-22 chronology, Feb 23 published);

US Embassy Beirut (official advisory); Military.com; PBS NewsHour; Fox News; Just Security; Washington Times; Asharq Al-Awsat; Naharnet; LiveUAMap Lebanon; Middle East Monitor; Euronews; NBC News; Amnesty International (published today Feb 25); Human Rights Watch (published today Feb 25); Palestine Chronicle; Times of Israel; Islam Times; Anadolu Agency; International Crisis Group Index compiled: Wednesday, February 25, 2026 — 14:00 Lebanon Time