🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Wednesday, Feb 4 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 87/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS DIPLOMACY – INTENSIFIED STRIKES CONTINUE AS HAYKAL MEETINGS PROCEED

🚨 BREAKING: MULTIPLE FRESH STRIKES TODAY – HAYKAL’S WASHINGTON MEETINGS CONTINUE

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2026:

LAF COMMANDER CONTINUES US MEETINGS: Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal continues his Washington visit (Day 2 of 3: February 3-5), having met Tuesday with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine and Assistant Secretary of War. Today’s meetings focus on military support and phase two disarmament planning.

MULTIPLE STRIKES TODAY: Israel intensifies strikes, especially north of Litani River, with multiple raids reported today across southern Lebanon and Bekaa Valley. Fresh Israeli strikes hit villages in Iqlim al-Tuffah and Nabatieh district after threatening buildings.

PRESIDENT AOUN’S BALANCING ACT: President Joseph Aoun said Tuesday that he is working with all concerned parties to avoid dragging Lebanon into a new war, stating “Regaining the trust and support of the international community hinges on the restoration of state institutions and the Lebanese army, with the army establishing a monopoly on weapons.”

PM SALAM’S DIPLOMATIC PUSH: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam urged Arab countries on Monday to stand by Lebanon, stating “No more adventures” while meeting with GCC chief and Jordanian counterpart in Dubai, calling for support, investment, and donations ahead of next month’s Paris conference.

HEZBOLLAH’S RESPONSE TIMING: Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem on Tuesday (yesterday) warned Israel that his group can also inflict “pain” at the right “timing,” amid intensification of Israeli strikes. A Hezbollah MP accused the state of negligence and ‘complicity’ on Tuesday.

SYRIA RELATIONS TRANSFORMED: Lebanon’s relationship with Syria is “radically different” since the fall of former President Bashar Assad in December 2024, according to senior Lebanese minister Michel Mitri tasked with Syria relations, marking dramatic positive shift post-Assad.

US-IRAN MEETING APPROACHING: A meeting between the United States and Iran is likely to take place in Turkey on February 6, an Arab official told AFP on Tuesday, after Tehran called for talks, potentially affecting regional dynamics impacting Lebanon.

UN PATROLS SUSPENDED: UN peacekeeping patrols suspended along Lebanon-Israel Blue Line following escalating security concerns and Israel’s continued violations including chemical substance allegations.

ISRAEL THREATENS ESCALATION: Netanyahu reportedly told cabinet ministers that Trump gave green light for fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, with report indicating Israel threatens 2024-like war if Hezbollah backs Iran militarily, escalating regional tensions.

TOMORROW’S CRITICAL CABINET MEETING: Cabinet set to meet Thursday to discuss “phase two” of disarmament plan (Litani to Awali River – 40km), coming amid Haykal’s Washington visit and fresh strikes continuing today.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Active Diplomatic Balancing. The capital manages complex diplomatic period as LAF Commander Haykal continues Washington meetings (day 2 of 3) while President Aoun works to avoid new war and PM Salam seeks Arab support ahead of tomorrow’s critical cabinet meeting on phase two disarmament.

President Aoun’s Tuesday statement that “regaining trust hinges on army monopoly on weapons” creates political framework as Haykal secures US military support. However, Hezbollah MP’s accusation of state “negligence and complicity” demonstrates domestic political tensions.

PM Salam’s “No more adventures” message to Arab countries emphasizes cautious approach while seeking support, investment, donations for March Paris conference supporting Lebanese army. His Dubai meetings with GCC chief and Jordanian counterpart demonstrate active regional diplomacy.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects ongoing threats while tomorrow’s cabinet meeting on phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali – 40km) approaches amid today’s fresh Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s warning about “pain” at right “timing.”

Syria relations transformation post-Assad provides new regional dynamic, with Minister Mitri describing “radically different” relationship offering potential diplomatic opportunities while US-Iran Turkey meeting (February 6) creates additional regional complexity.

Key Factor: Haykal’s Washington meetings continuing today while tomorrow’s phase two cabinet meeting approaches amid fresh Israeli strikes, Hezbollah warnings, and active Arab diplomacy.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 78/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Diplomatic Activity Impact. The governorate experiences tension from today’s fresh Israeli strikes while diplomatic developments (Haykal in Washington, Salam in Dubai, tomorrow’s cabinet meeting) create political uncertainty.

Business operations face challenges as tomorrow’s phase two disarmament discussion approaches while today’s strikes demonstrate continued military operations regardless of diplomatic efforts. Tourism sector remains constrained despite improved Syria relations post-Assad.

The region serves as primary destination for displaced populations (approximately 64,000) while managing humanitarian needs amid political uncertainty from tomorrow’s cabinet meeting and ongoing strikes.

Key Factor: Tomorrow’s phase two cabinet meeting creating uncertainty while today’s fresh strikes and diplomatic developments affect regional stability.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 79/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Regional Diplomatic Developments. Tripoli and surrounding areas monitor Haykal’s Washington visit outcomes, tomorrow’s cabinet meeting, and US-Iran Turkey talks (February 6) affecting regional security environment.

PM Salam’s “No more adventures” and call for Arab support demonstrates governmental focus on diplomatic solutions while seeking international backing ahead of March Paris conference.

Syria relationship transformation post-Assad creates new cross-border opportunities while today’s strikes in southern areas maintain regional security concerns affecting northern economic activities.

Key Factor: Multiple diplomatic developments (Haykal meetings, tomorrow’s cabinet, US-Iran talks, Syria transformation) creating regional uncertainty.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Syria Relations Transformation. The Syrian border situation benefits from “radically different” post-Assad relationship while Haykal’s Washington meetings aim to secure LAF equipment for enhanced border capabilities.

Cross-border security operations improve with new Syrian government cooperation while Lebanese Army operations benefit from improved regional coordination. Tomorrow’s phase two cabinet meeting may affect overall security framework.

Key Factor: Transformed Syria relations providing border opportunities while Haykal seeks US equipment for LAF capabilities.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Strike Zone Today. The valley experiences today’s fresh Israeli strikes with multiple targets hit as Israel intensifies operations especially north of Litani River.

Tomorrow’s cabinet meeting to discuss phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali – 40km) directly affects this region while Hezbollah’s warning about inflicting “pain” at right “timing” creates maximum tension in strategic valley.

Agricultural operations disrupted by today’s strikes while approximately 64,000 displaced persons demonstrate sustained crisis. Israeli threat of “2024-like war if Hezbollah backs Iran militarily” creates maximum regional concern.

Key Factor: Today’s fresh strikes with intensification north of Litani while tomorrow’s phase two meeting and Hezbollah warning creating maximum crisis.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 86/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Maximum Alert for Strikes. This region faces maximum danger as today’s strikes intensify especially north of Litani River affecting Bekaa areas while tomorrow’s phase two disarmament discussion approaches.

Infrastructure faces ongoing targeting as Israel threatens 2024-like war if Hezbollah backs Iran militarily (US-Iran meeting February 6 in Turkey creating additional concern). UN patrol suspension demonstrates deteriorating security conditions.

Key Factor: Today’s intensified strikes north of Litani while tomorrow’s cabinet meeting and US-Iran talks creating maximum regional tension.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Political Uncertainty. The coastal governorate faces anxiety from tomorrow’s critical cabinet meeting on phase two disarmament while today’s fresh strikes demonstrate continued military operations.

Tourism sector benefits from Syria relations transformation post-Assad creating new regional opportunities, while PM Salam’s diplomatic push for Arab support ahead of March Paris conference provides economic optimism.

Business operations proceed with caution as tomorrow’s cabinet decisions may affect overall security framework while Haykal’s Washington meetings determine future LAF capabilities and US support levels.

Key Factor: Tomorrow’s cabinet meeting creating uncertainty while diplomatic developments (Haykal, Salam, Syria transformation) providing some optimism.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Strike Zone Today. The south experiences today’s fresh Israeli strikes with intensification especially north of Litani River as Israel escalates operations amid diplomatic period.

UN peacekeeping patrols suspended along Blue Line following escalating violations and security concerns, demonstrating deteriorating international monitoring capacity. Israel still occupies five points hindering LAF operations.

Civilian populations face today’s strikes while approximately 64,000 remain displaced. Israel’s reported Trump “green light” for fresh offensive creates maximum danger concern as tomorrow’s phase two cabinet meeting approaches.

Yesterday’s strikes killed one and wounded others including 16-year-old boy demonstrating continued civilian casualties. Today’s intensification especially north of Litani indicates expanding operations regardless of ceasefire framework.

Key Factor: Today’s intensified strikes especially north of Litani while UN patrol suspension and Trump “green light” report creating maximum danger conditions.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Targeting Today. The governorate faces today’s fresh Israeli strikes in Iqlim al-Tuffah and Nabatieh district after building threats, demonstrating systematic targeting patterns.

Yesterday’s strike in Ebba killed one and wounded three including 16-year-old boy, while today’s operations continue targeting civilian infrastructure after evacuation threats.

Medical facilities struggle with casualties while tomorrow’s phase two cabinet meeting creates additional uncertainty. Approximately 64,000 displaced demonstrating sustained humanitarian crisis.

Key Factor: Today’s fresh strikes after building threats while yesterday’s casualties including 16-year-old creating ongoing civilian protection crisis.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 IMMEDIATE HIGH-RISK AREAS TODAY:

Priority Level 1 – Today’s Active Strikes:

1. North of Litani River – Today’s intensified Israeli strikes especially this area
2. Iqlim al-Tuffah – Fresh strikes today after building threats
3. Nabatieh District – Today’s raids following evacuation warnings
4. Bekaa Valley – Multiple strikes continuing today
5. Areas with Building Threats – Systematic pattern of warnings then strikes

Priority Level 2 – Critical Monitoring: 6. Tomorrow’s Cabinet Meeting – Phase two disarmament discussion (Litani to Awali – 40km) 7. Five Israeli-Occupied Points – Hindering LAF operations and civilian return 8. Blue Line Areas – UN patrols suspended due to escalating violations 9. US-Iran Meeting Implications – February 6 Turkey talks affecting regional dynamics 10. All Vehicle Routes – Continued targeting pattern demonstrated by recent casualties

🚨 TODAY’S CRITICAL CONVERGENCE:

Maximum Crisis Factors:

• Today’s Fresh Strikes – Intensification especially north of Litani River
• Haykal Day 2 Washington – Continuing critical military support meetings
• Tomorrow’s Cabinet Meeting – Phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali) discussion
• Hezbollah Timing Warning – Yesterday’s statement about inflicting “pain” at right moment
• Trump “Green Light” Report – Netanyahu reportedly given approval for fresh offensive
• UN Patrol Suspension – Blue Line monitoring suspended due to violations
• US-Iran Talks Coming – February 6 Turkey meeting affecting regional dynamics

⚠️ IMMEDIATE SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS:

Today’s Active Threats:

• Fresh Israeli strikes intensifying especially north of Litani
• Building threats followed by strikes in Iqlim al-Tuffah and Nabatieh
• UN patrol suspension reducing international monitoring
• Tomorrow’s cabinet meeting creating political uncertainty
• Hezbollah warning about “pain” timing creating escalation potential

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

TODAY’S DEVELOPMENTS: Fresh Israeli strikes continue today especially north of Litani River while LAF Commander Haykal’s Washington meetings proceed (day 2 of 3) and tomorrow’s critical cabinet meeting on phase two disarmament approaches.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

• Today’s Strikes: Fresh raids in Iqlim al-Tuffah, Nabatieh, north of Litani
• Haykal in Washington: Day 2 securing US military support
• Tomorrow’s Cabinet: Phase two disarmament discussion (Litani to Awali – 40km)
• Hezbollah Warning: Yesterday’s statement about “pain” timing
• UN Patrols Suspended: Blue Line monitoring reduced

PROTECTIVE MEASURES:

• North of Litani Areas: Maximum caution due to today’s intensified strikes
• Building Threat Monitoring: Yesterday’s pattern of warnings then strikes
• Tomorrow’s Cabinet Impact: Phase two decisions affecting security framework
• Travel Avoidance: Continued vehicle targeting risk

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

TODAY’S BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT:

• Fresh Strikes Today: Intensification especially north of Litani affecting operations
• Tomorrow’s Cabinet Decisions: Phase two disarmament creating planning uncertainty
• Haykal’s Washington Outcomes: US support determining LAF capabilities
• March Paris Conference: PM Salam securing Arab support and donations

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Monitor tomorrow’s cabinet decisions for phase two implications
• Track Haykal’s Washington visit outcomes for security framework
• Prepare for March Paris conference potential international support
• Maintain security protocols during today’s strike intensification

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY:

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS: Mixed diplomatic developments (Haykal meetings, Salam Arab outreach, Syria transformation) but today’s fresh strikes especially north of Litani requiring continued maximum caution.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• South Lebanon: Avoid due to today’s intensified strikes especially north of Litani
• Bekaa Valley: Today’s fresh strikes creating active danger
• Central Beirut: Functional with diplomatic activity but heightened security
• Tomorrow’s Cabinet: Phase two decisions may affect overall security framework

📊 COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Diplomatic Activity Amid Intensifying Strikes
Haykal Meetings: Day 2 of Washington visit securing US military support
Tomorrow’s Cabinet: Critical phase two disarmament discussion
Today’s Strikes: Fresh raids intensifying especially north of Litani
Regional Developments: US-Iran Turkey talks February 6, Syria relations transformed

Critical Analysis: Lebanon navigates critical 48-hour period with Haykal in Washington (today day 2), tomorrow’s cabinet meeting on phase two disarmament, and today’s fresh Israeli strikes intensifying especially north of Litani River.

President Aoun stated Tuesday that regaining international trust hinges on army monopoly on weapons while working to avoid new war. PM Salam’s “No more adventures” message while seeking Arab support demonstrates cautious diplomatic approach ahead of March Paris conference.

Hezbollah’s Tuesday warning about inflicting “pain” at right “timing” creates escalation potential as tomorrow’s cabinet discusses expanding disarmament from Litani to Awali (40km additional territory). Netanyahu’s reported Trump “green light” for fresh offensive adds maximum concern.

Syria relations transformation post-Assad provides new regional opportunities while US-Iran Turkey meeting (February 6) creates additional complexity. UN patrol suspension along Blue Line demonstrates deteriorating international monitoring capacity.

Tomorrow’s Critical Meeting: Cabinet discussion on phase two (Litani to Awali – 40km) occurs as Haykal completes Washington visit, with analysts believing Hezbollah won’t accept disarmament under continued attacks (today’s fresh strikes proving pattern continues).

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: DIPLOMATIC PERIOD COMPREHENSIVE PROTECTION

🏛️ 48-HOUR CRITICAL PERIOD – TODAY’S STRIKES & TOMORROW’S CABINET

CIS Security provides maximum protection during critical 48-hour convergence: today’s fresh strikes especially north of Litani, Haykal’s Washington day 2, and tomorrow’s phase two cabinet meeting.

IMMEDIATE PROTECTION SERVICES:

Today’s Fresh Strike Response:

• Real-time monitoring of intensification especially north of Litani
• Building threat warning systems following yesterday’s pattern
• Alternative routing avoiding today’s strike zones
• Emergency response for today’s ongoing operations

Diplomatic Period Coordination:

• Haykal Washington visit outcome tracking
• Tomorrow’s cabinet meeting security planning
• Phase two implications assessment
• March Paris conference preparation

Tomorrow’s Cabinet Meeting Security:

• Enhanced protection for Thursday’s critical discussions
• Phase two (Litani to Awali) implementation planning
• Political crisis navigation during disarmament debates
• International coordination during diplomatic period

📞 CRITICAL PERIOD COORDINATION

48-HOUR CRISIS HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional protection during today’s strikes, Haykal meetings, tomorrow’s cabinet

TODAY’S STRIKE MONITORING: Real-time tracking of intensification north of Litani
TOMORROW’S CABINET SECURITY: Protection for critical phase two discussions
DIPLOMATIC PERIOD COORDINATION: Comprehensive tracking of Haykal, Salam, regional developments

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CIS Security Critical Period Services:

• Today’s Strike Response – Real-time monitoring of fresh raids especially north of Litani
• Haykal Washington Tracking – Day 2 military support meeting outcomes
• Tomorrow’s Cabinet Security – Protection for phase two disarmament discussions
• Diplomatic Coordination – Salam Arab outreach, Syria transformation, US-Iran talks monitoring
• Building Threat Warnings – Real-time alerts following yesterday’s pattern
• Emergency Response – Professional coordination during today’s ongoing operations

Why Choose CIS During Critical Periods: ✓ 35+ Years Diplomatic Crisis Experience – Proven security during government convergence periods
✓ Real-Time Strike Monitoring – Today’s intensification especially north of Litani tracking
✓ Cabinet Meeting Security – Tomorrow’s phase two protection and planning
✓ Washington Visit Coordination – Haykal day 2 outcome assessment
✓ Regional Developments Tracking – US-Iran talks, Syria transformation, Arab diplomacy monitoring
✓ Comprehensive Protection – Security enabling continued operations during 48-hour critical convergence

Critical Period Support: 📞 48-Hour Crisis Hotline: +961-3-539900
💬 Today’s Strikes: Real-time monitoring of intensification especially north of Litani
🌐 Tomorrow’s Cabinet: www.cissecurity.net – Phase two disarmament meeting security
📧 Diplomatic Coordination: Comprehensive tracking of Haykal, Salam, regional developments

Serving all Lebanese governorates during critical 48-hour convergence: today’s fresh strikes especially north of Litani, LAF Commander Haykal’s Washington day 2, tomorrow’s cabinet meeting on phase two disarmament (Litani to Awali – 40km), Hezbollah warning about “pain” timing, Trump “green light” report, UN patrol suspension, and US-Iran Turkey talks approaching. CIS Security – Your trusted partner providing comprehensive protection during diplomatic and military crisis convergence requiring maximum professional response.