CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Monday, Jan 12 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 82/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ TENSE IMPLEMENTATION – PHASE 1 COMPLETE AMID CONTINUED STRIKES

🚨 BREAKING: PHASE 1 DISARMAMENT COMPLETE – STRIKES CONTINUE

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2026:

OVERNIGHT STRIKES ON MULTIPLE SITES: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Sunday (local time) said it carried out strikes on multiple Hezbollah-linked military sites in southern Lebanon, targeting shafts allegedly used for storing weapons, amid rising tensions along the border. The IDF stated that the strikes hit locations where Hezbollah activity had been identified in recent months.

IDF JUSTIFICATION: “STRUCK: Shafts used for storing weapons in several military sites belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, where in recent months, Hezbollah activity has been identified at these sites. Hezbollah’s terror activity at these sites constitutes a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon,” the Israeli military said in its post.

MASSIVE VIOLATION TOLL: Since the November 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the IDF has killed around 400 operatives and struck hundreds of additional Hezbollah-linked targets. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has documented more than 10,000 ceasefire violations by the Israelis, including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations.

PHASE 1 COMPLETION ANNOUNCED: Lebanon on Thursday (January 8) announced that it has completed the first phase of its plan to disarm Hezbollah and other militant groups in the country’s south, but Israel said the progress was “far from sufficient” amid renewed concerns that the conflict could ramp back up. The Lebanese Army said it now has operational control of Lebanese territory south of the Litani river, with the exception of five Israeli military positions inside Lebanon.

LEBANESE ARMY CLAIM: The Lebanese government claimed last week to have disarmed Hezbollah south of the country’s Litani River, but Israel has cast doubt on such an assertion. The Lebanese army statement avoided mentioning Hezbollah explicitly, adding that operations to address unexploded ordnance and tunnels will continue, alongside measures “to prevent armed groups from rebuilding their capabilities.”

HEZBOLLAH’S REJECTION: Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem said “To demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and the United States is imposing its will on Lebanon…means that you are not working in Lebanon’s interest but rather in the interest of what Israel wants,” in a speech on January 3, 2026.

DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE MOUNTING: French and Saudi envoys to visit Lebanon next week, indicating intensified international engagement. Lebanon has faced growing pressure from the US and Israel to disarm Hezbollah, and its leaders fear Israel could escalate strikes across the battered country to more quickly push Lebanon’s leaders to confiscate Hezbollah’s arsenal.

PHASE 2 CHALLENGES AHEAD: “The state is ready to move on to the second phase – namely [confiscating weapons] north of the Litani River – based on the plan prepared by the Lebanese army pursuant to a mandate from the government,” Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said. Analysts believe Hezbollah will not accept the disarmament’s second phase as long as Israel continues attacking Lebanon.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 76/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Implementation Challenges. The capital operates under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s leadership while navigating the complex announcement of Phase 1 completion amid continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s rejection of further disarmament.

The government faces intense diplomatic pressure with French and Saudi envoys visiting next week to discuss implementation progress. Prime Minister Salam’s statement that the state is ready to move to Phase 2 (north of Litani River) creates additional domestic political tension as Hezbollah has made clear its opposition.

Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal briefed the government on January 8 about the completion of Phase 1, announcing operational control south of the Litani River except for five Israeli-occupied points. However, the army blamed Israel’s continued military actions and occupation of Lebanese territory along the border as complicating and undermining these efforts.

UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert said it was “great to see” the army had “assumed operational control south of the Litani.” “This is undeniable progress. Hard work lies ahead,” she wrote on X, providing international recognition of Lebanese government efforts despite ongoing challenges.

Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the disarmament efforts “far from sufficient,” while Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly told cabinet ministers that US President Donald Trump had given the green light for a fresh Israeli offensive against the group, according to reports, creating severe pressure on Lebanese governmental operations.

Key Factor: Phase 1 completion announcement providing governmental milestone while Israeli dismissal of efforts and continued strikes create impossible conditions for Phase 2 implementation.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 73/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Implementation Tensions. The governorate experiences spillover effects from the disarmament debate, with Patriarch Rahi and political leaders engaged in discussions about the implications of moving to Phase 2 north of the Litani River.

Business operations continue with cautious awareness of potential escalation if Phase 2 implementation proceeds against Hezbollah’s stated opposition. Tourism sector shows mixed signals as Phase 1 completion provides some stability narrative while continued Israeli strikes demonstrate fragility.

The region serves as destination for populations from southern areas affected by ongoing Israeli strikes and disarmament operations, creating additional resource and security management challenges during this transition period.

Infrastructure improvements proceed under governmental framework, though Phase 2 implementation debates create uncertainty about resource allocation and priorities for the coming months.

Key Factor: Phase 1 completion providing stability narrative while Phase 2 tensions and continued Israeli strikes create underlying uncertainty for economic and security planning.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 75/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Regional Concerns. Tripoli and surrounding areas monitor Phase 1 completion and Phase 2 debates with concern about potential escalation if disarmament moves north of Litani River against Hezbollah’s stated opposition.

Economic activities proceed with awareness of diplomatic pressure from upcoming French and Saudi envoy visits, which signal intensified international engagement on disarmament implementation requiring governmental attention and resources.

Port operations continue under standard security protocols, though regional tensions from disarmament debates and continued Israeli strikes affect business confidence and international trade considerations.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable with continued coordination, though regional actors monitor Lebanon’s disarmament implementation with varying interests affecting diplomatic and security considerations.

Key Factor: Phase 1 completion creating temporary stability while Phase 2 debates and international pressure create concerns about potential escalation affecting regional operations.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 76/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Considerations. The Syrian border situation remains stable with Lebanese Armed Forces coordination, while Phase 1 disarmament completion demonstrates governmental authority assertion in challenging security environments.

Cross-border security operations benefit from LAF’s enhanced operational control south of Litani River, though Phase 2 implementation debates create uncertainty about resource allocation for border security versus internal disarmament operations.

The region monitors international diplomatic engagement, particularly upcoming French and Saudi envoy visits, which may affect border security cooperation and regional coordination frameworks during this implementation period.

Key Factor: LAF operational control enhancement from Phase 1 providing border security benefits while Phase 2 debates create resource allocation uncertainties.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Phase 2 Tensions. The valley faces particular tension as Phase 2 implementation would involve disarmament operations north of Litani River, directly affecting areas where Hezbollah maintains significant presence and local support.

Recent Israeli strikes on Hammara and Ain el-Tineh in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, with evacuation orders issued for four villages, demonstrate that military operations extend beyond southern border areas, creating vulnerability throughout the region.

Agricultural operations proceed with enhanced security awareness as Phase 2 implementation debates create concerns about potential escalation in areas north of Litani River where Hezbollah presence remains significant despite Phase 1 completion.

“Assuming the Lebanese state and the army commander would try to disarm Hezbollah north of the Litani, Hezbollah and also the majority of the Shia community is going to rise and try to prevent this,” according to analysts, indicating severe implementation challenges for Phase 2.

Key Factor: Phase 2 implementation targeting areas north of Litani creating direct tensions while recent Israeli strikes demonstrating vulnerability throughout Beqaa region.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Maximum Phase 2 Concerns. This region faces maximum tension regarding Phase 2 implementation as traditional Hezbollah stronghold north of Litani River would be directly affected by expanded disarmament operations.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s rejection of disarmament “while Israel is committing aggression and the United States is imposing its will on Lebanon” resonates strongly in this region, creating local resistance to Phase 2 implementation efforts.

Infrastructure operations proceed under heightened security awareness as Phase 2 debates and continued Israeli strikes create uncertainty about governmental capacity to extend operations into areas with strong local resistance to disarmament.

The region monitors international diplomatic pressure, particularly reports that Hezbollah received “last-chance advice” from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to hand over weapons, creating complex diplomatic and security dynamics affecting local populations.

Key Factor: Direct targeting by Phase 2 implementation creating maximum local resistance while international pressure mounting on Hezbollah creating volatile conditions.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 70/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Political Tensions. The coastal governorate benefits from distance from disarmament operations but experiences political tensions from Phase 2 debates and continued Israeli strikes demonstrating ceasefire fragility.

Tourism sector shows cautious optimism from Phase 1 completion announcement but remains constrained by continued Israeli strikes and escalation concerns if Phase 2 implementation proceeds against stated Hezbollah opposition.

Business operations continue with awareness of upcoming French and Saudi diplomatic visits indicating intensified international engagement that may affect economic and security environment in coming weeks.

The region serves as destination for domestic economic activities during implementation period, though underlying tensions from disarmament debates affect long-term planning and investment confidence.

Key Factor: Distance from direct operations providing relative stability while political tensions and strike continuation creating underlying uncertainty.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 87/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Operations Zone. The south experiences continued Israeli strikes despite Phase 1 completion announcement, with overnight attacks on multiple Hezbollah-linked military sites targeting shafts allegedly used for storing weapons.

The Lebanese Army announcement of operational control south of Litani River (except five Israeli-occupied points) marks significant milestone, but Israel’s dismissal of efforts as “far from sufficient” and continued strikes create dangerous conditions for civilian populations.

Lebanon’s health ministry reported casualties from recent strikes, including a person killed in Zaita area strike on January 8 targeting Hezbollah drone operator Alaa Khourani, demonstrating continued targeted assassinations despite ceasefire framework.

UNIFIL operations continue in environment with documented 10,000+ Israeli violations including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations, making peacekeeping extremely challenging and demonstrating systematic disregard for ceasefire arrangements.

Civilian populations face ongoing displacement with hundreds of families fleeing villages after Israeli evacuation warnings, creating humanitarian challenges while Lebanese Army attempts to establish operational control in volatile security environment.

Key Factor: Phase 1 completion announcement contrasted with continued systematic Israeli strikes creating impossible conditions for stability while civilian populations face ongoing displacement.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Reconstruction Challenges. The governorate faces continued Israeli strikes despite Phase 1 completion, with recent attacks on Kfar Hatta and Annan following evacuation orders demonstrating ongoing military operations.

Infrastructure restoration efforts proceed under Lebanese Army operational control announcement, but continued strikes and unexploded ordnance clearance requirements create severe challenges for reconstruction and civilian return.

The World Bank estimates that Israel left Lebanon with approximately $11bn in needs for reconstruction and recovery, with Nabatieh governorate facing particularly severe damage requiring long-term international support and stable security conditions.

Medical facilities operate under strain treating casualties from continued strikes while managing long-term humanitarian needs from previous conflict period requiring sustained international humanitarian assistance.

Key Factor: Phase 1 operational control announcement providing framework for reconstruction while continued strikes and massive damage creating severe implementation challenges.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Operations:

1. Southern Lebanon Multiple Sites – Overnight Israeli strikes on weapons storage shafts
2. Zaita Area – Recent strike killing Hezbollah drone operator January 8
3. Five Israeli-Occupied Points – Exception to Lebanese Army control south of Litani
4. Beqaa Valley Villages – Hammara, Ain el-Tineh targeted with evacuation orders
5. Southern Villages – Kfar Hatta, Annan facing strikes after evacuation warnings

Priority Level 2 – Implementation Monitoring: 6. Areas North of Litani River – Phase 2 implementation creating tensions 7. Hezbollah Strongholds – Resistance to further disarmament operations 8. UNIFIL Positions – Operating in environment with 10,000+ documented violations 9. Government Buildings Beirut – Diplomatic pressure from international visits 10. Border Crossings – Enhanced Lebanese Army operations south of Litani

✅ RELATIVELY IMPROVED ZONES (WITH CONTINUED VIGILANCE):

Phase 1 Implementation Areas:

• Lebanese Army Control Areas – Operational authority south of Litani (except five points)
• Northern Coastal Areas – Distance from disarmament operations providing relative stability
• Central Beirut – Governmental operations proceeding despite diplomatic pressure
• Cross-Border Areas – Stable coordination maintained during implementation period

⚠️ PHASE 2 ESCALATION CONCERNS:

Critical Implementation Challenges:

• Hezbollah rejection of Phase 2 disarmament north of Litani River
• Analyst predictions of Shia community resistance to expanded operations
• Israeli dismissal of Phase 1 efforts as “far from sufficient”
• Reports of Trump green light for fresh Israeli offensive
• International pressure mounting through diplomatic visits

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

PHASE 1 COMPLETION MILESTONE: The Lebanese Army’s announcement of operational control south of Litani River marks significant governmental achievement, though continued Israeli strikes and Phase 2 tensions require ongoing security awareness and preparation.

CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION ENVIRONMENT:

• Lebanese Army Control: Operational authority south of Litani (except five Israeli positions)
• Continued Strikes: Overnight attacks on multiple sites despite Phase 1 completion
• Phase 2 Tensions: Hezbollah rejection creating concerns about escalation
• International Pressure: French and Saudi envoys visiting next week
• Displacement Continues: Evacuation warnings and strikes causing population movements

IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD PRECAUTIONS:

• Monitor Phase 2 implementation debates for potential escalation indicators
• Maintain emergency preparedness as continued strikes demonstrate ceasefire fragility
• Follow Lebanese Army guidance in areas under operational control transitions
• Prepare for potential escalation if Phase 2 proceeds against stated opposition

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD ENVIRONMENT:

• Governmental Progress: Phase 1 completion providing stability narrative
• Continued Violations: Israeli strikes demonstrating ongoing risks
• Phase 2 Uncertainty: Debates creating planning challenges for businesses
• International Engagement: Diplomatic visits indicating intensified pressure

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Phase 1 completion enabling some economic activities in controlled areas
• Continued strikes requiring enhanced security protocols
• Phase 2 tensions creating medium-term planning uncertainties
• International pressure affecting business confidence and investment decisions

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY – IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD:

CAUTIOUS APPROACH MAINTAINED: Phase 1 completion provides governmental milestone but continued strikes and Phase 2 tensions require careful assessment and enhanced security measures for any travel.

CURRENT TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Southern Areas: Lebanese Army control improving security but strikes continue
• Northern Areas: Phase 2 tensions creating potential escalation concerns
• Border Crossings: Enhanced LAF operations improving some border security
• Diplomatic Activity: International visits creating additional security awareness requirements

📊 IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Phase 1 Complete Amid Continued Violations and Phase 2 Tensions
Governmental Achievement: Lebanese Army operational control south of Litani (except five points)
Israeli Response: Dismissal as “far from sufficient” with continued strikes
Hezbollah Position: Rejection of further disarmament while Israel continues aggression

Critical Implementation Analysis: Lebanon’s announcement of Phase 1 completion represents significant governmental achievement under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, with Lebanese Army gaining operational control south of Litani River. UN Special Coordinator Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert recognized this as “undeniable progress.”

However, Israel’s immediate dismissal of efforts as “far from sufficient” and continued overnight strikes on multiple sites demonstrate systematic rejection of Lebanese implementation efforts. The IDF has killed around 400 operatives and struck hundreds of targets since November 2024 ceasefire, with UNIFIL documenting over 10,000 violations.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s rejection of disarmament “while Israel is committing aggression” creates impossible conditions for Phase 2 implementation north of Litani River. Analysts predict that “Hezbollah and also the majority of the Shia community is going to rise and try to prevent” Phase 2 operations.

Prime Minister Salam’s statement that “the state is ready to move on to the second phase” creates direct confrontation with Hezbollah’s stated position, while reports that Netanyahu told ministers Trump gave green light for fresh offensive creates severe escalation concerns.

Diplomatic Pressure Mounting: Upcoming French and Saudi envoy visits indicate intensified international engagement, while reports that Hezbollah received “last-chance advice” from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to hand over weapons demonstrate regional pressure coordination.

Historical Context: Israel killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon since October 2023, as part of its war with Hezbollah. Most were killed between September-November 2024 when more than 1.2 million people were displaced. The World Bank estimates approximately $11bn in reconstruction needs.

Long-term Prospects: Phase 1 completion provides foundation for governmental authority assertion, but Phase 2 implementation against stated Hezbollah opposition while Israel continues strikes creates conditions for severe escalation requiring careful international coordination and diplomatic engagement.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD SERVICES

🏛️ PHASE 1 COMPLETION SUPPORT – PHASE 2 PREPARATION

CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during Lebanon’s implementation period as Phase 1 completes amid continued strikes and Phase 2 tensions create complex security environment.

IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

Lebanese Army Coordination:

• Operational Control Support: Professional security in areas under LAF authority south of Litani
• Transition Period Protection: Security during authority transfer and control establishment
• Implementation Monitoring: Real-time assessment of operational control effectiveness
• Strike Response Protocols: Professional response to continued violations during implementation

Phase 2 Preparation Security:

• Tension Monitoring: Assessment of escalation risks from Phase 2 debates
• Hezbollah Resistance Analysis: Professional evaluation of opposition implementation challenges
• International Pressure Coordination: Security during diplomatic visit periods
• Escalation Response Planning: Professional preparation for potential Phase 2 confrontations

Continued Operations Environment:

• Strike Pattern Monitoring: Real-time assessment of overnight and ongoing attacks
• Evacuation Support: Professional coordination for population movements after warnings
• Civilian Protection: Enhanced security in areas facing continued targeting
• Infrastructure Security: Protection during reconstruction under operational control

SPECIALIZED IMPLEMENTATION SERVICES:

Governmental Authority Support:

• Professional security enabling LAF operational control establishment
• Protection for Lebanese Army operations in newly controlled areas
• Security coordination with international recognition of implementation progress
• Emergency response capabilities during transition periods

Diplomatic Period Protection:

• Enhanced security during French and Saudi envoy visits next week
• Professional coordination for international engagement activities
• Protection for governmental meetings on implementation progress
• Security support for ceasefire monitoring committee meetings

Phase 2 Risk Management:

• Comprehensive assessment of Hezbollah resistance potential
• Professional planning for Shia community opposition scenarios
• Escalation warning systems for Phase 2 implementation attempts
• Alternative security frameworks if governmental confrontation occurs

📞 IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD COORDINATION

PHASE 1 COMPLETION SUPPORT: +961-3-539900
Professional security enabling Lebanese Army operational control while managing continued strikes

PHASE 2 PREPARATION: Professional assessment and planning for escalation scenarios
DIPLOMATIC VISIT SECURITY: Enhanced protection during international envoy engagement
STRIKE RESPONSE COORDINATION: Real-time monitoring and protection during continued violations

Implementation Centers:

• LAF Coordination Office: Professional support for Lebanese Army authority establishment
• Phase 2 Assessment Center: Comprehensive evaluation of escalation risks
• Diplomatic Security Division: Enhanced protection during international visits
• Strike Monitoring Center: Real-time assessment and response coordination

During Lebanon’s implementation period with Phase 1 complete and Phase 2 tensions mounting, CIS Security’s professional services enable governmental operations while preparing for potential escalation scenarios requiring comprehensive protection and emergency response capabilities.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s critical implementation period with Phase 1 disarmament complete south of Litani and Phase 2 tensions mounting, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise in governmental transition support, implementation period protection, and escalation scenario planning. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive implementation security including Lebanese Army coordination, Phase 2 preparation, diplomatic visit protection, and continued strike response. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting governmental authority establishment while preparing for potential escalation requiring emergency response capabilities.

CIS Security Implementation Period Services:

• Lebanese Army Coordination – Professional support for operational control south of Litani River
• Phase 2 Preparation – Comprehensive assessment and planning for escalation scenarios
• Diplomatic Visit Protection – Enhanced security during French and Saudi envoy engagement
• Strike Response Coordination – Real-time monitoring despite Phase 1 completion milestone
• Governmental Authority Support – Professional services enabling implementation progress
• Emergency Escalation Response – Preparation for Phase 2 confrontation scenarios

Why Choose CIS During Implementation: ✓ 35+ Years Transition Experience – Proven security during governmental authority establishment periods
✓ LAF Coordination Expertise – Professional support for Lebanese Army operational control
✓ Phase 2 Risk Assessment – Comprehensive evaluation of Hezbollah resistance and escalation potential
✓ Diplomatic Security – Enhanced protection during international pressure and envoy visits
✓ Strike Environment Operations – Continued monitoring despite 10,000+ documented violations
✓ Emergency Response Planning – Professional preparation for potential escalation scenarios

Implementation Support: 📞 Phase 1 Coordination: +961-3-539900
💬 Phase 2 Assessment: Professional evaluation of escalation risks and preparation
🌐 Implementation Security: www.cissecurity.net – Comprehensive authority establishment support
📧 Diplomatic Protection: Enhanced security during international envoy engagement periods

Serving all Lebanese governorates during implementation period with Phase 1 complete south of Litani and Phase 2 tensions mounting. CIS Security – Your trusted partner supporting Lebanese Army operational control, governmental authority establishment, and professional preparation for potential escalation scenarios while maintaining comprehensive protection during continued Israeli strikes and international pressure.