🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Wednesday, Jan 28 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 86/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ POST-DEADLINE CRISIS – ISRAEL REFUSES WITHDRAWAL, UNDERGROUND STRIKES CONTINUE

🚨 BREAKING: ISRAEL STRIKES UNDERGROUND HEZBOLLAH SITE AS WITHDRAWAL DEADLINE PASSES

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2026:

UNDERGROUND SITE STRIKE: Israel’s military targeted an unspecified number of Hezbollah operatives “while they were operating at an underground site” in southern Lebanon on Monday, January 27, according to IDF statements reported today. The strike targeted the Nabatiya area, marking continued Israeli operations against alleged Hezbollah infrastructure despite the expiration of the 60-day withdrawal deadline.

JANUARY 26 DEADLINE VIOLATED: The critical 60-day ceasefire deadline passed on Sunday, January 26, with Israel refusing to complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office stated the IDF withdrawal “is conditional on the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement,” declaring that “since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by the state of Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the U.S.”

FOUR HEZBOLLAH MEMBERS KILLED LAST WEEK: During January 20-26, Israeli strikes eliminated four Hezbollah operatives including a liaison in Yanouh village, the head of a weapons-smuggling network, and an artillery commander. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported four killed and 26 wounded in IDF attacks during this period.

ADDITIONAL STRIKES TUESDAY: On January 27, the IDF killed another Hezbollah operative in the Deir Qanoun area of southern Lebanon, identified as serving as “head of an artillery squad in the area of Al-Harash.” The military claimed he was “acting in violation of the ceasefire” despite Lebanese army’s operational control claims.

370+ KILLED SINCE CEASEFIRE: Israeli attacks have now killed more than 370 people in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, with the death toll rising steadily despite LAF’s January 8 announcement of completing phase one disarmament south of the Litani River.

HEZBOLLAH REORGANIZING: Lebanese security sources report that Hezbollah has begun reorganizing its deployment in southern Lebanon according to a “reduced footprint and enhanced fortification” model. The group shifted from overt deployment to a layered, decentralized structure based on small, replaceable outposts, limited operational cells, and transfer of weapons in small, high-value units to reduce exposure while preserving capabilities.

NETANYAHU: TRUMP GREENLIGHTS OFFENSIVE: Netanyahu reportedly told cabinet ministers on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump had given the green light for a fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, according to Kan news. The report said both Jerusalem and Washington were unhappy with Lebanese government efforts to tackle the Hezbollah threat, though it did not say whether a major assault was imminent.

LEBANON PREPARING POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS?: Sources suggest Israel is pushing for a shift to direct political negotiations with Lebanon without mediation, through meetings between official representatives in a third country, most likely Cyprus. Israel is allegedly exploiting the postponed ceasefire monitoring committee meeting to advance a new political framework and stricter conditions for Lebanon.

ARMY COMMANDER HAYKAL TO VISIT WASHINGTON: A Lebanese military delegation left for meetings with US Central Command (CENTCOM) in preparation for Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal’s scheduled visit to Washington on February 4, ahead of the March conference in support of the Lebanese army in Paris. Haykal is expected to present a practical vision for continued disarmament operations.

HEZBOLLAH’S LAST-CHANCE ADVICE: Lebanese officials reported that Hezbollah received “last-chance advice” from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to hand over its weapons to Lebanon’s government, according to UK-based Arabic newspaper Asharq al-Awsat. This represents intensified Arab pressure on the group amid escalating Israeli operations.

ISRAEL CLAIMS FASTER REARMING: Israel’s Foreign Ministry warned that Hezbollah, with Iranian support, is “rearming faster than it is being disarmed,” following the 2023-2024 conflict in which Israel severely degraded Hezbollah and eliminated its leader Hassan Nasrallah. This claim contradicts Lebanese and UNIFIL assessments showing “no evidence” of infrastructure rebuilding.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Post-Deadline Crisis Management. The capital faces a fundamental sovereignty crisis as Israel’s refusal to withdraw by the January 26 deadline constitutes a clear ceasefire violation, while Netanyahu’s reported statement that Trump has given a “green light” for a fresh offensive creates urgent escalation concerns.

President Joseph Aoun’s government operates under extreme pressure, with Army Commander Haykal preparing to visit Washington February 4 to present disarmament progress and secure continued US support. The timing is critical—Lebanon needs to demonstrate sufficient LAF capability while managing Hezbollah’s reorganization under a “reduced footprint” model that preserves capabilities.

Reports that Israel is pushing for direct political negotiations in Cyprus, bypassing current mediation frameworks, signal a potential shift in conflict management approaches. This could represent either an opportunity for direct dialogue or Israeli exploitation of Lebanon’s weakened position to impose stricter conditions.

The Lebanese government faces impossible demands: Israel conditions withdrawal on “full and effective” enforcement that eliminates all Hezbollah presence, while Hezbollah reorganizes in ways that reduce visibility without disarming. Meanwhile, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey reportedly delivered “last-chance advice” to Hezbollah to surrender weapons, indicating Arab states recognize the current trajectory toward escalation.

Economic activities continue under this cloud of existential uncertainty. The arrival of Army Commander Haykal’s delegation at CENTCOM and the scheduled Paris conference in March represent attempts to secure international support, but Israeli operations continue regardless of diplomatic efforts.

Key Factor: January 26 deadline violated with Israel refusing withdrawal, Netanyahu reportedly receiving Trump “green light” for offensive, while Lebanon prepares Washington visit and faces impossible demands from all sides.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 78/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Post-Deadline Anxiety. The governorate experiences profound concern that Israel’s deadline violation and reported Trump “green light” for offensive operations could trigger renewed large-scale conflict. Memories of the 2024 strikes that devastated Lebanon create deep anxiety about potential escalation.

Religious and political leaders recognize that the combination of Israeli dissatisfaction with disarmament progress, Hezbollah’s “reduced footprint” reorganization preserving capabilities, and the missed withdrawal deadline creates multiple escalation pathways with few obvious off-ramps.

Business operations proceed with growing uncertainty about Lebanon’s trajectory. The four Hezbollah members killed last week (January 20-26) and continued strikes including Monday’s underground site attack demonstrate that Israeli operations intensify rather than decrease despite diplomatic efforts.

Infrastructure improvements proceed cautiously under governmental framework, while the region continues hosting displaced populations from southern areas. The prospect of renewed conflict creates paralysis in long-term planning and investment decisions.

Key Factor: January 26 deadline violation and Trump “green light” report creating profound escalation concerns while Israeli operations continue killing Hezbollah operatives and targeting underground sites.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Economic Vulnerability. Tripoli and surrounding areas monitor the post-deadline crisis with awareness that renewed conflict would devastate the northern economy. The port city’s commerce depends on stability that appears increasingly threatened.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable despite regional tensions, though Trump’s reported “green light” for Israeli operations creates uncertainty about potential spillover effects. The US shift in Syria policy backing Ahmed al-Sharaa over Kurdish forces adds complexity to regional calculations.

Economic conditions show vulnerability to any escalation, with businesses monitoring whether Army Commander Haykal’s February Washington visit can secure support while managing Israeli demands. The March Paris conference represents potential international assistance, but implementation depends on avoiding renewed conflict.

Infrastructure projects face uncertainty as the fundamental question of whether Lebanon faces diplomacy or war remains unresolved. The combination of Israel’s withdrawal refusal, continued strikes, and reported Trump approval creates worst-case scenario conditions.

Key Factor: Post-deadline crisis threatening economic recovery while northern regions monitor whether diplomatic efforts or Israeli offensive will determine Lebanon’s trajectory.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Border Security Under Post-Deadline Pressure. The Syrian border situation remains stable with LAF coordination, though the overall security environment deteriorates dramatically with Israel’s deadline violation and reported plans for potential offensive operations.

Cross-border security operations continue effectively, but Army Commander Haykal’s upcoming Washington visit represents critical moment for securing US support for LAF capabilities. The February 4 meeting and March Paris conference will determine international backing for Lebanese sovereignty operations.

The region benefits from LAF presence, but the army’s position becomes increasingly tenuous as Israel demands “full and effective” enforcement beyond current capabilities while Hezbollah reorganizes under models that preserve combat power despite reduced visibility.

Key Factor: Border security maintained while LAF prepares critical Washington visit amid post-deadline crisis and Israeli dissatisfaction with disarmament progress requiring impossible enforcement.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – Trump “Green Light” Escalation Risk. The valley faces extreme concern following reports that Netanyahu told cabinet ministers Trump has approved a fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah. The Bekaa Valley, as Hezbollah’s historical stronghold, would be a primary target of any large-scale operation.

Agricultural operations continue under immense uncertainty, with awareness that the pattern of four Hezbollah operatives killed last week could expand to comprehensive campaign. Israeli Foreign Ministry warnings that Hezbollah is “rearming faster than being disarmed” create justification for escalation.

The “reduced footprint and enhanced fortification” model Hezbollah reportedly adopted includes transfer of weapons “in small, high-value units” throughout Bekaa Valley. This reorganization preserves capabilities while making Israeli targeting more difficult, potentially driving Israel toward larger operations.

International development projects face existential threats from potential offensive operations. The Bekaa Valley’s designation as phase four in comprehensive disarmament plans makes it ultimate target if Israel pursues military solution rather than diplomatic process.

Key Factor: Trump “green light” report creating immediate escalation risk for Bekaa Valley as Hezbollah stronghold, while reorganization under “reduced footprint” model preserves capabilities potentially driving Israeli offensive calculations.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 86/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Offensive Warning. This region faces direct threats from Trump’s reported approval for fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah. As core Hezbollah area, Baalbek-Hermel would be central target of any comprehensive military campaign.

Infrastructure faces immediate risks from potential large-scale operations. The four Hezbollah operatives killed last week including weapons-smuggling network head demonstrate Israeli focus on disrupting Hezbollah’s reorganization efforts. However, reports that the group maintains “layered, decentralized structure” suggest capabilities remain despite strikes.

The regional security dynamics create existential concerns for communities viewing Hezbollah as defenders. The combination of Israel’s withdrawal refusal, continued operations, Trump “green light,” and Arab states’ “last-chance advice” to Hezbollah creates perception of coordinated international pressure potentially triggering major escalation.

Key Factor: Trump “green light” report creating immediate offensive threat to core Hezbollah region, while Israel’s January 26 deadline violation demonstrates willingness to maintain military pressure regardless of diplomatic frameworks.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Post-Deadline Crisis Anxiety. The coastal governorate experiences relative security from direct strikes but profound concern about Trump’s reported approval for Israeli offensive operations. Communities fear both renewed large-scale conflict and potential internal tensions.

Tourism infrastructure faces challenges as the post-deadline crisis deters visitors and businesses monitor whether situation evolves toward diplomacy or war. The scheduled Army Commander Haykal Washington visit and Paris conference represent diplomatic track, while Trump “green light” report suggests military track gaining momentum.

The region’s Christian populations support state authority and LAF operations but deeply fear renewed conflict. The successful January 8 phase one completion announcement provided brief optimism, but Israel’s rejection as “far from sufficient” and continued strikes demonstrate satisfaction remains elusive.

Key Factor: Relative security from strikes but intense anxiety about Trump “green light” and potential Israeli offensive creating renewed large-scale conflict devastating Lebanese society.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – Underground Sites Targeted Post-Deadline. The south experiences highest tensions as Monday’s strike on underground site in Nabatiya demonstrates Israeli operations continue and intensify despite January 26 withdrawal deadline passage. Four Hezbollah operatives killed last week and additional Tuesday strike demonstrate escalating pattern.

The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed January 8 completion of phase one disarmament establishing state arms monopoly south of Litani, but Israel called this “far from sufficient” and warned Hezbollah is “rearming faster than being disarmed.” The gap between Lebanese claims and Israeli assessments remains unbridgeable.

Israel maintains five strategic hilltop positions inside Lebanese territory despite ceasefire requirements for complete withdrawal by January 26. The deadline violation fundamentally undermines ceasefire framework while providing Hezbollah with justification for maintaining defensive capabilities.

Monday’s strike on “underground site” where Hezbollah operatives were “operating” suggests Israeli intelligence penetration of the group’s reorganization efforts. Tuesday’s elimination of “head of an artillery squad” demonstrates targeting of mid-level commanders attempting to rebuild capabilities.

Civilian populations continue experiencing casualties with 370+ killed since ceasefire—an increase from 350+ reported previously. The pattern of near-daily strikes continues despite LAF’s operational control claims, creating impossible security conditions for residents attempting reconstruction.

Hezbollah’s reported reorganization under “reduced footprint and enhanced fortification” model involves “small, replaceable outposts” and “limited operational cells” that reduce exposure while preserving combat capabilities. This adaptation makes LAF enforcement more difficult while potentially drawing Israeli escalation.

Key Factor: Monday underground site strike and 370+ deaths since ceasefire demonstrate Israeli operations continue post-deadline, while Hezbollah reorganizes under “reduced footprint” model creating adaptive response to LAF pressure and Israeli targeting.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Direct Strike Target. The governorate experienced Monday’s underground site strike directly, with IDF targeting Hezbollah operatives “operating at underground site” in Nabatiya area. This represents intensification of operations in region attempting reconstruction.

Infrastructure restoration faces constant disruption from ongoing strikes. The four operatives killed last week including January 20-26 period, plus Monday’s underground site attack and Tuesday’s Deir Qanoun strike demonstrate that Israeli operations intensify rather than decrease despite diplomatic efforts.

Civilian populations balance reconstruction needs with awareness that Trump’s reported “green light” for Israeli offensive could trigger renewed large-scale operations devastating recent recovery progress. The 370+ deaths since ceasefire create ongoing trauma for communities experiencing continued violence.

Key Factor: Monday underground site strike in Nabatiya demonstrating region remains active Israeli targeting zone post-deadline, while 370+ deaths since ceasefire and potential offensive create ongoing reconstruction challenges.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – POST-DEADLINE CRISIS

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Active Combat/Post-Deadline Crisis:

1. Nabatiya Area – Underground site struck Monday, direct Israeli targeting continuing
2. Deir Qanoun Area – Hezbollah operative killed Tuesday, operations ongoing
3. Five Israeli-Occupied Positions – Maintained beyond January 26 deadline violating ceasefire
4. Bekaa Valley – Trump “green light” creating offensive risk for Hezbollah stronghold
5. Baalbek-Hermel – Core areas facing potential large-scale operations

Priority Level 2 – Post-Deadline Monitoring: 6. All Southern Lebanon – 370+ killed since ceasefire, LAF claims insufficient per Israel 7. Underground Hezbollah Sites – Monday strike shows Israeli intelligence on reorganization 8. Syrian Border Crossings – Weapons smuggling network head killed last week 9. Yanouh Village – Hezbollah liaison eliminated last week demonstrating geographic range 10. Cyprus – Potential direct negotiations venue if Israel pursues diplomatic track

✅ NO TRULY STABLE ZONES – POST-DEADLINE CRISIS AFFECTS ALL AREAS:

Relatively Lower Risk (But Still Critical):

• Keserwan-Jbeil – Furthest from direct strikes but facing post-deadline crisis anxiety
• Northern Coastal Areas – Not directly targeted but vulnerable to escalation spillover
• Central Beirut Government District – Diplomatic efforts continuing amid military pressure

⚠️ POST-DEADLINE CRISIS FACTORS:

Immediate Escalation Triggers:

• Israel’s January 26 deadline violation fundamentally undermining ceasefire framework
• Trump’s reported “green light” for Israeli offensive against Hezbollah
• Monday underground site strike demonstrating operations intensify post-deadline
• 370+ killed since ceasefire with four last week including weapons smuggling network head
• Hezbollah reorganizing under “reduced footprint” model preserving capabilities
• Israel’s claim Hezbollah “rearming faster than being disarmed” justifying escalation
• Arab states’ “last-chance advice” to Hezbollah indicating regional pressure coordination

Critical Timeline Events:

• February 4: Army Commander Haykal visits Washington CENTCOM
• March 2026: Paris conference supporting Lebanese Armed Forces
• Immediate: Israel’s push for direct Cyprus negotiations bypassing current frameworks
• Ongoing: Monday’s underground strike pattern potentially expanding to major offensive

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – POST-DEADLINE CRISIS PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

CRITICAL DEADLINE VIOLATION: Israel refused to complete withdrawal by January 26 deadline, conditioning exit on “full and effective” Lebanese enforcement while Netanyahu reportedly received Trump “green light” for fresh offensive against Hezbollah.

CURRENT CRISIS ENVIRONMENT:

• Monday Underground Strike: Hezbollah operatives targeted “while operating at underground site” Nabatiya
• 370+ Deaths Since Ceasefire: Pattern continuing with four killed last week, one Tuesday
• Withdrawal Refused: Five positions maintained beyond deadline violating ceasefire terms
• Trump “Green Light”: Netanyahu reportedly told cabinet US approved fresh offensive

IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRIORITIES:

• Southern Residents: Heightened risk from Monday underground strike pattern potentially expanding
• Bekaa Valley: Trump “green light” creating offensive risk for Hezbollah stronghold areas
• Emergency Preparedness: Maintain supplies, fuel, medications for potential rapid escalation
• Evacuation Planning: Review procedures given post-deadline crisis and offensive potential
• Real-Time Monitoring: Continuously track news for escalation indicators or strike warnings

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

POST-DEADLINE CRISIS OPERATIONS:

• Immediate Risk: Monday underground strike and Trump “green light” creating escalation environment
• Timeline Critical: Haykal Washington visit February 4, Paris conference March determining support
• Cyprus Negotiations: Israel’s push for direct talks potentially creating new framework or pressure tactic
• Offensive Threat: Netanyahu’s reported Trump approval creating major operation possibility

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Emergency protocols for rapid deterioration if offensive operations commence
• Business continuity planning for scenarios ranging from continued strikes to major campaign
• Supply chain contingencies given post-deadline crisis and escalation potential
• Insurance and legal review for coverage of renewed conflict scenarios

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY – POST-DEADLINE CRISIS PERIOD:

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS: Extremely dangerous post-deadline crisis with Israel refusing withdrawal, Monday underground strike in Nabatiya, Trump reportedly approving offensive, and 370+ killed since ceasefire demonstrating ongoing threats.

CRITICAL TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS:

• AVOID Nabatiya Area: Monday underground site strike demonstrating active targeting zone
• AVOID All Southern Lebanon: 370+ deaths since ceasefire, Israeli operations continuing post-deadline
• AVOID Bekaa Valley: Trump “green light” creating offensive risk for Hezbollah stronghold
• AVOID Border Areas: Five Israeli positions maintained beyond deadline, ongoing violations
• Exercise Extreme Caution Nationwide: Post-deadline crisis creating potential for major escalation

IF TRAVEL ESSENTIAL:

• Monitor real-time security updates continuously for strike warnings
• Have multiple evacuation routes and contingency plans
• Carry emergency supplies and communication equipment
• Register with embassy and maintain emergency contact protocols
• Strongly consider postponing non-essential travel until crisis trajectory clarifies

📊 WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2026 SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Assessment: Post-Deadline Crisis with Underground Strike and Offensive Threat
January 26 Violation: Israel refused ceasefire-mandated withdrawal conditioning exit on impossible Lebanese enforcement
Monday Strike: Underground Hezbollah site targeted in Nabatiya demonstrating operations intensify
Trump “Green Light”: Netanyahu reportedly told cabinet US approved fresh offensive against Hezbollah

Critical Analysis: Wednesday, January 28, 2026, marks a dangerous escalation in Lebanon’s security crisis as Israel refuses to honor the January 26 withdrawal deadline while continuing strikes including Monday’s targeting of an underground Hezbollah site in Nabatiya, compounded by reports that Netanyahu told cabinet ministers President Trump has given a “green light” for a fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.

The January 26 deadline represented a critical milestone in the November 2024 ceasefire agreement requiring Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory within 60 days. Israel’s refusal to comply, announced by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office, conditions continued withdrawal on the Lebanese army “fully and effectively enforcing the agreement” and Hezbollah withdrawing “beyond the Litani River”—standards Israel claims have not been met despite Lebanese army’s January 8 announcement of completing phase one disarmament.

Netanyahu’s office declared that “since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by the state of Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the U.S.” This position effectively gives Israel unilateral authority to determine withdrawal timing based on its own satisfaction assessments, fundamentally undermining the ceasefire’s deadline-based framework.

Monday’s strike on an underground site in Nabatiya where Hezbollah operatives were “operating” demonstrates that Israeli military operations not only continue but intensify in the post-deadline period. The targeting of underground facilities suggests Israeli intelligence has penetrated Hezbollah’s reorganization efforts despite the group’s adoption of a “reduced footprint and enhanced fortification” model designed to reduce exposure.

During January 20-26, Israeli strikes eliminated four Hezbollah operatives including a liaison in Yanouh village, the head of a weapons-smuggling network, and an artillery commander. Tuesday saw an additional strike in Deir Qanoun area killing another operative identified as “head of an artillery squad in the area of Al-Harash.” The Lebanese Health Ministry reported four killed and 26 wounded during January 20-26 alone.

The death toll since the November 2024 ceasefire has now exceeded 370 people in Lebanon, representing a steady increase from the 350+ reported previously. This pattern demonstrates that Israeli operations continue with lethal consequences regardless of Lebanese army claims of establishing operational control south of the Litani River.

Netanyahu’s reported statement to cabinet ministers that President Trump has given a “green light” for a fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah represents a potential game-changer. According to Kan news, both Jerusalem and Washington are unhappy with Lebanese government efforts to tackle the Hezbollah threat. While the report did not specify whether a major assault is imminent, the authorization itself creates immediate escalation risks.

The Trump administration’s apparent dissatisfaction with disarmament progress aligns with warnings from Israel’s Foreign Ministry that Hezbollah, with Iranian support, is “rearming faster than it is being disarmed.” This assessment contradicts Lebanese military and UNIFIL statements that there is “no evidence” of infrastructure rebuilding south of the Litani River.

Lebanese security sources report that Hezbollah has reorganized its deployment in southern Lebanon under a model of “reduced footprint and enhanced fortification.” The group shifted from overt deployment to a layered, decentralized structure based on small, replaceable outposts, limited operational cells, and transfer of weapons in small, high-value units. This adaptation reduces exposure to Israeli targeting while preserving combat capabilities—exactly the scenario Israeli officials cite as insufficient compliance.

Reports suggest Israel is pushing for direct political negotiations with Lebanon without mediation, through meetings between official representatives in a third country, most likely Cyprus. Sources indicate Israel is exploiting the postponed ceasefire monitoring committee meeting to advance a new political framework and potentially impose stricter conditions on Lebanon. This could represent either genuine diplomatic opportunity or Israeli leverage tactics using military pressure.

Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal’s scheduled February 4 visit to Washington represents Lebanon’s critical opportunity to demonstrate disarmament progress and secure continued US support. A Lebanese military delegation has already departed for meetings with US Central Command (CENTCOM) in preparation. The March conference in Paris supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces will determine international backing levels.

However, Haykal faces an impossible task: demonstrating “full and effective” enforcement that satisfies Israeli and US demands while managing Hezbollah’s reorganization in ways that preserve the group’s capabilities despite reduced visibility. The gap between what Lebanon can deliver and what Israel demands appears unbridgeable without either Hezbollah’s voluntary comprehensive disarmament or Israeli use of force to compel it.

Lebanese officials reported that Hezbollah received “last-chance advice” from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to hand over weapons to Lebanon’s government, according to UK-based Asharq al-Awsat. This represents intensified Arab pressure on the group amid escalating Israeli operations, suggesting regional coordination around the crisis.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem maintains that the group no longer has an armed presence south of Litani but that full disarmament is against Lebanese interests. This position accepts phase one (southern disarmament) as accomplished while rejecting phase two expansion north of the Litani River—precisely the issue that triggered the January crisis requiring strategic pause based on Iran strike expectations.

The five Israeli-occupied positions inside Lebanese territory remain despite ceasefire requirements for complete withdrawal. These strategic hilltop locations provide Israel with leverage over disarmament negotiations while giving Hezbollah justification for maintaining defensive capabilities. Israel’s maintenance of these positions beyond the January 26 deadline represents clear ceasefire violation regardless of disarmament enforcement questions.

The combination of deadline violation, continued lethal strikes including underground sites, Trump’s reported offensive approval, Hezbollah’s adaptive reorganization, and unbridgeable gaps between Israeli demands and Lebanese capabilities creates multiple escalation pathways with few obvious de-escalation mechanisms.

Regional Context: Trump’s reported “green light” occurs amid his administration’s broader Middle East strategy taking more aggressive stance toward Iran. The warning to Iran that “time is running out” alongside US military build-up in the Gulf creates regional context where Lebanese escalation could become part of broader Iran confrontation.

Historical Parallel: The January 26 deadline violation parallels numerous previous Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire breakdowns where implementation disagreements triggered renewed conflict. The 2006 war’s aftermath saw similar cycles of partial compliance, mutual accusations, and eventual escalation.

Army Commander Visit: Haykal’s February 4 Washington visit represents pivotal moment. If he can secure US backing for Lebanese army capabilities while managing Israeli concerns, diplomatic track remains possible. If US sides entirely with Israeli dissatisfaction, Lebanon faces either forced Hezbollah confrontation or continued Israeli military pressure potentially escalating to major offensive.

Long-term Prospects: Lebanon faces stark choices in post-deadline crisis: pursue impossible comprehensive enforcement risking internal conflict, accept continued Israeli strikes and occupation as new normal, or face potential major Israeli offensive with Trump approval. None of these options offers sustainable stability, suggesting Lebanon’s security crisis enters more dangerous phase following January 26 deadline violation.

The fundamental question remains whether diplomatic efforts through Haykal’s Washington visit and Paris conference can create framework satisfying Israeli demands without triggering internal Lebanese conflict, or whether Trump’s reported “green light” signals shift toward military solution regardless of diplomatic progress.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: POST-DEADLINE CRISIS RESPONSE

🚨 CRITICAL ALERT – DEADLINE VIOLATED, OFFENSIVE AUTHORIZED

CIS Security activates maximum crisis protocols following Israel’s January 26 withdrawal deadline violation, Monday’s underground Hezbollah site strike in Nabatiya, and Netanyahu’s reported statement that President Trump has given “green light” for fresh offensive against Hezbollah. Our 35+ years of experience managing Lebanon’s most dangerous security environments enables comprehensive protection during this post-deadline crisis with immediate offensive threat.

POST-DEADLINE CRISIS SERVICES:

Immediate Threat Response:

• Underground Strike Monitoring – Assessment of Monday Nabatiya attack pattern and potential expansion
• Offensive Threat Planning – Contingencies for Trump “green light” implementation scenarios
• Deadline Violation Impact – Analysis of Israel’s refusal to withdraw from five positions
• Real-Time Intelligence – Continuous monitoring of 370+ deaths pattern and escalation indicators

February Timeline Critical Services:

• Washington Visit Coordination – Security supporting Army Commander Haykal February 4 CENTCOM meetings
• Diplomatic Track Protection – Services for Cyprus negotiations if Israel pursues direct talks
• Paris Conference Preparation – March event security planning and international coordination
• Offensive Contingency – Emergency protocols if Trump “green light” triggers major operations

Comprehensive Crisis Management:

• 24/7 Operations Center – Monitoring underground strikes, deadline violations, offensive threats
• Multi-Scenario Planning – Contingencies for continued strikes, major offensive, or diplomatic breakthrough
• International Coordination – Embassy, UNIFIL, LAF liaison during post-deadline crisis
• Business Continuity – Enabling operations during most dangerous period since 2024 conflict

SPECIALIZED POST-DEADLINE SERVICES:

Governmental Support:

• Security coordination with President Aoun’s administration during post-deadline crisis
• Professional services supporting Army Commander Haykal’s critical Washington visit
• Protection for diplomatic initiatives including potential Cyprus direct negotiations
• LAF partnership during impossible enforcement demands from Israel and US

Offensive Threat Preparedness:

• Scenario planning for Trump “green light” implementation ranging from expanded strikes to major campaign
• Evacuation protocols for personnel in Bekaa Valley, Baalbek-Hermel, and southern areas
• Business continuity for scenarios including comprehensive Israeli offensive operations
• Emergency extraction capabilities from multiple threatened zones simultaneously

Underground Infrastructure Monitoring:

• Assessment of Monday Nabatiya underground site strike implications for targeting patterns
• Intelligence on Hezbollah “reduced footprint” reorganization model and Israeli penetration
• Security for facilities potentially vulnerable to underground infrastructure targeting
• Emergency response if underground strike pattern expands beyond current Nabatiya focus

📞 POST-DEADLINE CRISIS COORDINATION

EMERGENCY HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
24/7 immediate response during post-deadline crisis with offensive threat

UNDERGROUND STRIKE RESPONSE: Assessment and protection following Monday Nabatiya attack
OFFENSIVE CONTINGENCY: Emergency protocols for Trump “green light” implementation
DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT: Security for Haykal Washington visit and Cyprus negotiations

Post-Deadline Crisis Centers:

• Violation Monitoring: Analysis of Israel’s deadline refusal and five position occupation
• Offensive Planning: Contingencies for major operations with Trump approval
• Underground Targeting: Assessment of Monday strike pattern and expansion potential
• Emergency Response: 24/7 capabilities for any escalation scenario

During Lebanon’s post-deadline crisis with Israel refusing January 26 withdrawal, Monday underground Hezbollah site strike in Nabatiya, 370+ deaths since ceasefire, and Netanyahu’s reported Trump “green light” for offensive, CIS Security provides comprehensive professional protection enabling safety and business continuity during most dangerous escalation since 2024 conflict under President Aoun’s governmental coordination and Army Commander Haykal’s critical Washington diplomatic efforts.

⚠️ POST-DEADLINE CRISIS OPERATIONAL NOTICE

DEADLINE VIOLATED: Israel refused January 26 ceasefire-mandated withdrawal, conditioning exit on “full and effective” Lebanese enforcement while maintaining five positions inside Lebanese territory in clear violation of agreement terms.

Monday Underground Strike: IDF targeted Hezbollah operatives “operating at underground site” in Nabatiya area demonstrating operations intensify post-deadline rather than decrease, with four operatives killed last week and one Tuesday.

Trump “Green Light” Reported: Netanyahu allegedly told cabinet ministers President Trump approved fresh Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, with both Jerusalem and Washington dissatisfied with Lebanese disarmament efforts creating immediate escalation risk.

370+ Deaths Since Ceasefire: Pattern continuing with Lebanese Health Ministry reporting four killed and 26 wounded during January 20-26 alone, demonstrating ongoing lethality despite LAF operational control claims.

Hezbollah Reorganizing: “Reduced footprint and enhanced fortification” model involving layered, decentralized structure with small replaceable outposts preserving capabilities while reducing exposure to Israeli targeting and LAF enforcement.

Critical February Timeline: Army Commander Haykal visits Washington CENTCOM February 4, Paris conference supporting LAF scheduled March, while Israel pushes Cyprus direct negotiations potentially bypassing current frameworks.

Arab “Last-Chance Advice”: Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey reportedly urged Hezbollah to hand over weapons representing coordinated regional pressure amid post-deadline crisis and offensive authorization.

CIS Crisis Response: Maximum protocols activated with underground strike monitoring, offensive contingency planning, deadline violation impact assessment, and comprehensive 24/7 operations supporting safety during most dangerous escalation since 2024 conflict.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s post-deadline crisis with Israel refusing January 26 withdrawal, Monday underground Hezbollah site strike in Nabatiya, 370+