Lebanon Security Index July 7 2025

Lebanon Security Index July 7 2025

This intelligence brief provides a comprehensive analysis of Lebanon Daily Intelligence Briefing July 7 2025, drawing upon real-time intelligence from the past 24 hours and broader strategic context. It is designed to inform the CIS Security Meter™ Instagram series, ensuring accuracy, relevance, and actionable information for residents, businesses, and travelers across all nine governorates.

Executive Summary: Lebanon’s Security Landscape Today – Lebanon Daily Intelligence Briefing

Overall National Security Rating & Trend Analysis:

Lebanon’s national security environment on July 7, 2025, is assessed at a 🔴 CRITICAL (92/100) level, indicating a severely elevated risk profile. The prevailing trend is ⚡ VOLATILE, reflecting rapidly shifting conditions driven by persistent cross-border military actions and a complex diplomatic standoff.

The primary factors contributing to this assessment include continued Israeli military operations in southern and eastern Lebanon, directly impacting civilian areas and infrastructure. These actions, which include drone strikes and ground incursions, are occurring despite a nominal ceasefire agreement. Concurrently, Hezbollah’s leadership has publicly reaffirmed its refusal to disarm until Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territory and ceases its aggression. This fundamental disagreement, coupled with ongoing US diplomatic efforts that have yet to yield a breakthrough, maintains a precarious balance susceptible to sudden escalation.

A persistent pattern of low-intensity conflict defines the national security environment. Multiple reports confirm ongoing Israeli airstrikes and incursions in Southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley within the last 24-48 hours, resulting in casualties.¹ These actions are explicitly described as violations of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement.¹ 

Simultaneously, Hezbollah’s leadership has publicly reiterated its stance, stating it will not disarm until Israel fully withdraws and ceases its aggression.¹ This creates a clear cycle of reciprocal actions that, while not a full-scale war, sustain an active, low-intensity conflict. The practical implication is that the national security environment is inherently unstable. The “ceasefire” on the ground functions more as a framework for continued limited engagement, meaning daily life is continuously exposed to sudden escalations, particularly in border regions and areas perceived as Hezbollah strongholds.

This dynamic necessitates a “Critical” overall rating, with a “Volatile” trend, as the situation can shift rapidly based on direct military engagements or diplomatic failures.

2. Governorate-by-Governorate Security Assessment

This section provides a granular breakdown of security conditions in each of Lebanon’s nine governorates, reflecting data from the last 24 hours. Daily Intelligence Briefing

Table: Daily Governorate Security Readings – July 7, 2025

BEIRUT 🏙️ Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 75/100 🟠 Status: Elevated alert due to drone overflights and political sensitivity. Key Factor: Israeli drone overflight in southern suburbs; US diplomatic efforts.

An Israeli drone was observed overflying Beirut’s southern suburbs at a low altitude approximately one hour prior to this report.¹⁴ This area is widely recognized as a Hezbollah stronghold.⁴ While no direct strikes were reported 

today in central Beirut, the overflight signals continued surveillance and maintains a state of vigilance, indicating the potential for rapid escalation. The presence of US envoy Tom Barrack in Beirut for critical disarmament talks with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun adds a significant layer of political sensitivity.⁶ Any misstep in these negotiations could quickly translate into security incidents. Furthermore, a recent “armed parade” organized by Hezbollah in Beirut’s southern suburbs drew condemnation from the Prime Minister, highlighting internal tensions.¹⁸

The ongoing diplomatic activity, particularly the US envoy’s visit, aims to address Hezbollah’s disarmament.⁶However, Hezbollah’s recent public statements explicitly reject disarmament under current conditions, asserting it will not lay down arms until Israel fully withdraws and ceases aggression.⁴ 

The Israeli drone overflight simultaneously acts as a form of pressure. This creates a clear disparity where high-level diplomatic efforts are underway, but the fundamental disagreements and military posturing on the ground continue unabated. Despite diplomatic engagement, the underlying security tension in Beirut, particularly its southern suburbs, remains high due to the unresolved core issues. Residents and businesses should understand that diplomatic talks do not automatically translate to immediate de-escalation; rather, they might precede or coincide with increased military signaling.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 58/100 🟡 Status: Generally stable, but affected by national political developments. Key Factor: Hosting US envoy talks; minor internal security incidents.

The presidential palace in Baabda, located east of Beirut within Mount Lebanon, served as the venue for the meeting between US envoy Thomas Barrack and President Joseph Aoun.¹⁵ While no major security incidents directly linked to this high-level meeting were reported in the past 24 hours, its significance for national policy, particularly concerning Hezbollah’s potential disarmament, influences the broader security sentiment across the country. Additionally, minor internal security incidents, such as “simple assault” and “terroristic threats,” were reported in Mount Lebanon ¹⁹, indicating localized crime concerns but not systemic instability or large-scale conflict.

Mount Lebanon, particularly areas like Baabda, functions as a crucial political hub.¹⁵ Although it is not a primary zone for cross-border military action, decisions made here directly influence the national security landscape. The presence of high-stakes diplomatic discussions, even without direct security incidents, raises the profile of the area and carries the potential for indirect ripple effects if negotiations falter. Localized crime is a constant, but distinct, security concern.

Residents and businesses in Mount Lebanon should remain aware of the broader political climate, as it dictates the overall security posture. While direct threats may be lower than in border regions, the political sensitivity means an elevated need for general vigilance and awareness of potential civil unrest or opportunistic crime.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊Lebanon Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 52/100 🟡 Status: Relatively calm, but with underlying social and political fragilities. Key Factor: Past municipal election incidents; ongoing humanitarian concerns.

No direct Israeli military actions or significant cross-border incidents were reported in North Lebanon within the last 24 hours. However, the region has recently faced significant procedural and security challenges, including violent incidents, during the 2025 municipal elections in Tripoli, with over 140 reported incidents.²⁰ A “massive fire” at an unregulated dumpsite in the Zgharta district was also reported ²¹, highlighting environmental and infrastructure challenges that can indirectly affect public order and safety. Existing travel advisories still recommend avoiding all travel to the city of Tripoli due to the presence of armed groups and the high risk of sporadic violence.²²

The absence of direct Israeli-Hezbollah conflict in North Lebanon, based on available data for today, does not equate to complete security. The region’s history of internal political tensions and localized violence, as evidenced by the municipal elections, indicates a different set of security challenges. Environmental and infrastructure issues, such as the dumpsite fire, can also contribute to social unrest or public safety hazards, even in the absence of direct conflict. Security in North Lebanon is therefore less about external military threats and more about internal stability, governance, and socio-economic factors. Residents and businesses should be mindful of local political dynamics, the potential for civil unrest, and general public safety issues, which can be distinct from the national geopolitical tensions.

AKKAR 🌲Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 68/100 🟡 Status: Strained by refugee influx; impacted by broader regional pressures. Key Factor: Significant influx of Syrian refugees; US sanctions on Hezbollah-linked finance.

Akkar continues to experience a significant influx of Syrian refugees fleeing violence in Syria, with approximately 5,000 individuals crossing the border in the past 24 hours.²³ This substantial humanitarian strain poses considerable challenges for housing, food supply, and essential health services, which can indirectly affect local stability and public order. While no direct military incidents were reported for Akkar today, the US Treasury recently sanctioned Hezbollah-controlled financial institutions.²⁴ This action, while not a direct security incident, signifies ongoing international pressure on Hezbollah, whose influence extends across various parts of Lebanon. Current travel advisories continue to recommend avoiding all travel to Akkar due to potential clashes between rival armed groups and military activity.²²

The large-scale influx of refugees into an already resource-limited area like Akkar creates significant social and economic pressures. While not a direct security incident, such strains can exacerbate existing tensions, lead to competition for resources, and potentially contribute to localized unrest or crime, thereby indirectly impacting security.

The US sanctions on Hezbollah’s financial network, while targeting a different aspect, are part of a broader strategy that could lead to economic instability or retaliatory actions that affect various regions, including Akkar. Residents and businesses in Akkar face security risks stemming not just from direct conflict but also from humanitarian pressures and the broader economic and political instability linked to efforts to weaken non-state actors. Vigilance should extend to social dynamics and resource availability.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 88/100 🟠 Status: Targeted by Israeli airstrikes; active area for Hezbollah operations. Key Factor: Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure.

The Israeli military launched a series of airstrikes on eastern Lebanon, including the Beqaa Valley, targeting “Hezbollah military sites, strategic weapons production and storage sites, and a rocket launching site”.⁴ These strikes, occurring in the last 24-48 hours, clearly indicate that the Beqaa Valley remains a significant operational zone for Hezbollah and a frequent target for Israeli military action. Existing travel advisories strongly recommend avoiding all travel to the Beqaa and Baalbek-Hermel Governorates due to ongoing clashes and military activity.²²

The Beqaa Valley, while geographically distinct from the immediate southern border, serves as a vital “strategic depth” for Hezbollah, hosting critical production and storage facilities.⁴ Israeli strikes deep into this territory demonstrate a willingness to expand the conflict beyond the immediate border, making the Beqaa a consistent hotspot.

This confirms that the conflict is not confined to the south but has a broader geographical reach within Lebanon. Businesses and residents in the Beqaa Valley face a direct and elevated risk of military engagement, including aerial bombardments. The nature of these targets (weapons production and storage) suggests a high potential for secondary explosions or collateral damage. Security measures should prioritize awareness of aerial threats and contingency plans for rapid sheltering.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 90/100 🔴 Status: Directly impacted by Israeli airstrikes. Key Factor: Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah sites.

Similar to the Beqaa Valley, the Baalbek-Hermel governorate was explicitly mentioned as an area targeted by Israeli airstrikes in the last 24-48 hours, specifically around the eastern city of Baalbek.⁴ These strikes underscore the ongoing military activity in this region, which is also considered a Hezbollah stronghold. Travel advisories consistently recommend avoiding all travel to Baalbek-Hermel due to clashes and military activity.²²

The repeated mention of Israeli strikes in both “Beqaa Valley” and “Baalbek-Hermel” highlights their shared security profile.⁴ Baalbek-Hermel is geographically part of the broader Beqaa region. This suggests that security assessments for these two governorates are often intertwined due to their strategic importance to Hezbollah and their vulnerability to Israeli operations. Security advice for Baalbek-Hermel should largely mirror that for Beqaa Valley, emphasizing the risk of aerial strikes and the presence of armed groups. Residents should understand that military activity in one part of the broader Beqaa region can quickly affect the other, necessitating a unified approach to security preparedness.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️ Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 45/100 🟢 Status: Relatively calm, but with national humanitarian and political context. Key Factor: No direct security incidents reported; broader national humanitarian needs.

No specific security incidents or military actions were reported in Keserwan-Jbeil for the last 24 hours. The region was mentioned in the context of municipal election results, indicating political activity but no reported unrest.²⁰ However, the broader humanitarian needs across Lebanon, including widespread food insecurity affecting 1.1 million people and an estimated 4.1 million people requiring humanitarian assistance in 2025, apply nationwide.²⁶

The absence of direct conflict-related incidents in Keserwan-Jbeil, based on available data for the last 24 hours, suggests a relatively stable local security environment compared to the southern border or Beqaa regions. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the governorate is still part of a nation experiencing significant humanitarian and economic crises.²⁶

 This means that while direct physical threats might be lower, indirect impacts such as economic hardship, social strain, or the potential for crime due to desperation could still be present. While residents and businesses in Keserwan-Jbeil may experience a lower immediate threat level from military conflict, they should remain aware of the broader national challenges. Security considerations should include general crime prevention and community resilience, rather than solely focusing on geopolitical conflict.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 95/100 🔴 Status: High tension, active military operations, civilian casualties. Key Factor: Israeli drone strikes, ground incursions, and civilian injuries/fatalities.

This governorate experienced significant security incidents in the last 24-48 hours. Israeli drone strikes killed one civilian and wounded another in Shebaa and Bint Jbeil.¹ Additional Israeli airstrikes injured 10 people in Burj Rahal (Tyre region) and Az-Zrariyah (Sidon region), including a child who was seriously injured and admitted to intensive care.² Furthermore, an Israeli force reportedly crossed the border and took up positions near Aita al-Shaab shortly after midnight.² 

Hezbollah’s leader delivered a speech from Beirut’s southern suburbs, a known stronghold, vowing not to disarm until Israel withdraws from the five occupied points in the south.¹ Current travel advisories explicitly state “Avoid all travel” to South Lebanon due to military activity across the area, especially near the border with Israel.²²

The sheer volume and severity of reported incidents in South Lebanon clearly identify it as the primary flashpoint.¹ Civilian casualties, including children, underscore the direct human cost of the ongoing ceasefire violations. The Israeli ground incursion represents a significant escalation beyond aerial strikes, increasing the risk of direct confrontation. Hezbollah’s rhetoric reinforces the expectation of continued resistance. South Lebanon is experiencing active conflict conditions, not merely heightened tensions. Residents and businesses face immediate and severe risks, including direct harm, displacement, and disruption of essential services. The humanitarian situation, with approximately 250 killed and 600 wounded since November 2024, is dire.⁴

NABATIEH ⛪ Daily Intelligence Briefing

Reading: 93/100 🔴 Status: High tension, active military operations, civilian casualties. Key Factor: Proximity to South Lebanon, cross-border tensions, past Israeli strikes.

While specific incidents directly within Nabatieh were not as detailed for the last 24 hours as for other southern areas, it is geographically intertwined with South Lebanon and is explicitly mentioned in travel advisories as an “Avoid all travel” zone due to military activity, especially near the border.²² Past Israeli airstrikes have targeted areas near Nabatieh, including Zawtar al-Charqiyeh and Nabatieh Al Fawqa, resulting in casualties ²⁵, indicating its continued vulnerability.

Nabatieh’s security profile is largely a function of its geographical proximity and strategic importance within the broader southern Lebanese conflict zone. While direct mentions of incidents in Nabatieh for today are limited, the overall context of heightened Israeli military activity and Hezbollah’s presence in South Lebanon means that Nabatieh shares a very similar, high-risk security environment.¹ Residents and businesses in Nabatieh should adopt the same heightened security posture as those in South Lebanon. The risk of sudden escalation, cross-border fire, and targeted strikes remains very high, necessitating continuous monitoring of alerts and adherence to emergency protocols.

3. Detailed Security Snapshot: Hotspots, Safe Zones, and Areas to Avoid

This section provides specific, actionable geographical recommendations for the next 24 hours.

Hotspots to Watch:

• Location 1: Southern Lebanon Border Zone (Shebaa, Bint Jbeil, Burj Rahal, Az-Zrariyah, Aita al-Shaab): This area remains the primary flashpoint due to continuous Israeli drone strikes, airstrikes, and ground incursions, which have resulted in civilian casualties and injuries in the last 24-48 hours.¹Hezbollah’s significant presence and its firm stance against disarmament ensure ongoing tension and potential for direct confrontation.
• Location 2: Beqaa Valley / Baalbek-Hermel Region: This region continues to be targeted by Israeli airstrikes, with military operations aimed at Hezbollah’s military sites, production, and storage facilities.⁴This indicates a persistent high-risk environment for aerial bombardment and potential collateral damage.
• Location 3: Southern Suburbs of Beirut: Although no direct strikes were reported today, the Israeli drone overflight in this area, coupled with its status as a Hezbollah stronghold, recent armed parades, and ongoing diplomatic pressure, maintains a high potential for rapid escalation or targeted actions.¹

The identification of these hotspots reveals a dynamic threat landscape. The southern border represents direct, kinetic conflict with ground incursions and immediate civilian impact. The Beqaa/Baalbek-Hermel region signifies a deeper strategic conflict zone targeted for infrastructure. Beirut’s southern suburbs represent a potential for high-impact, symbolic strikes or internal unrest. This dynamic illustrates that the threat is not monolithic but adapts to strategic objectives and political signaling. Security planning must therefore be agile and location-specific, recognizing that different regions face different primary threats, such as direct cross-border fire, targeted aerial strikes, or political unrest.

Safe Zones:

• Area 1: Central & Northern Mount Lebanon (excluding southern areas close to Beirut’s suburbs):Based on the absence of reported military incidents or significant internal unrest in the last 24 hours, and its relative distance from active conflict zones, this area presents a comparatively lower immediate risk.¹⁵
• Area 2: Keserwan-Jbeil Governorate: No direct security incidents were reported in the last 24 hours, indicating a relative calm compared to other regions.²⁰
• Area 3: Specific residential/business districts in Beirut (outside southern suburbs): While Beirut’s southern suburbs are a hotspot, central and northern districts have not reported direct incidents today, offering relative safety, though general vigilance is always advised.¹⁴

It is important to note that designating “safe zones” must be understood within the context of Lebanon’s overall volatile security situation.¹⁰ No area is entirely immune to indirect impacts or unforeseen escalations. The “safety” described for these areas is derived from the 

absence of reported direct incidents in the last 24 hours and their distance from primary conflict zones, rather than guaranteed, absolute security. These are areas with lower immediate risk for today, but residents and businesses should still maintain a heightened sense of awareness and preparedness, as the national situation remains fragile.

Avoid Today:

• Specific area or road: All areas within 5-10 km of the Israeli border in South Lebanon and Nabatieh, including towns like Shebaa, Bint Jbeil, Aita al-Shaab, Burj Rahal, and Az-Zrariyah. Also, the entire Beqaa Valley and Baalbek-Hermel governorates due to active Israeli airstrikes. The southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahieh, Bourj el Barajneh, Haret Hreik) should also be avoided due to drone overflights and high potential for targeted action.
• Time period to avoid: Nighttime and early morning hours for border areas, as incursions or strikes are often reported during these times (e.g., the Aita al-Shaab incursion occurred “shortly after midnight” ²¹).
• Event, protest, or warning: Avoid any areas with reported military activity, large gatherings, or protests, especially those related to Hezbollah or Israeli actions. Be aware of the ongoing risk of unexploded ordnance in southern Lebanon.¹¹

Given the nature of the conflict, characterized by drone strikes, incursions, and targeted attacks, and the inherently unpredictable environment, proactive avoidance of high-risk zones is the most effective immediate security measure. The specific warnings provided are derived directly from recent incidents and standing travel advisories.²² This approach directly translates to practical safety for residents and businesses by minimizing exposure to direct threats.

4. Actionable Security Recommendations for Stakeholders

This section translates the intelligence into practical, actionable tips for various segments of the population.

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

• Stay Alert & Informed: Continuously monitor local news, official alerts, and the CIS Security Meter™ for real-time updates. The volatile security situation ¹⁰ necessitates constant awareness.
• Home Safety Tip: Identify and prepare a safe room or designated shelter within your home, especially if residing in southern regions or areas near potential targets. Ensure emergency kits, including food, water, first-aid supplies, a battery-powered radio, and extra batteries, are readily stocked and accessible.¹
• Neighborhood Advice: Maintain awareness of your immediate surroundings. Report any suspicious activity to local authorities promptly. Avoid areas with visible military presence or checkpoints not operated by the Lebanese Army.²¹
• Tip on Protecting Property or Movement: Limit non-essential travel, particularly after dark, in high-risk governorates. Always carry identification documents with you and be prepared to present them to security authorities.²²

The ongoing conflict and political instability mean that residents cannot rely solely on external forces for security.¹⁰ Personal preparedness and community awareness become paramount for resilience in uncertainty. These tips are designed to empower individuals and households to take proactive steps, shifting the focus from passive consumption of information to active risk mitigation against unpredictable events.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• Security Protocol or Staff Reminder: Regularly review and update emergency evacuation plans and shelter-in-place procedures for all staff members. Conduct frequent drills to ensure all personnel are familiar with these protocols.¹⁰
• Night Shift or Delivery Safety: Re-evaluate operations in high-risk areas, especially during nighttime hours, as incursions or strikes are often reported then.²¹ Consider adjusting delivery routes or schedules to avoid known hotspots or times of heightened activity.
• Business Continuity Tip: Develop comprehensive contingency plans for potential power outages, internet disruptions, and supply chain interruptions. Secure critical data and assets through off-site backups and redundant systems to ensure operational continuity amidst general instability and economic fragility.²⁶

Businesses in Lebanon operate in an environment where “normal” is highly volatile.¹⁰ Beyond immediate physical security, operational continuity is a major concern. The provided tips address both direct threats to personnel and operations, as well as indirect impacts such as infrastructure disruptions. This approach helps businesses mitigate operational risks, thereby supporting economic resilience.

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

• Road Safety Advice: Avoid all non-essential travel to southern Lebanon, Nabatieh, Beqaa Valley, Baalbek-Hermel, and the southern suburbs of Beirut, as these are areas of active military operations and high risk.²² Be aware that roads and highways can become blocked without notice due to security incidents.
• Transportation or Checkpoint Alert: Expect an increased security presence and numerous checkpoints throughout the country. Always carry valid identification documents and cooperate fully with security authorities to avoid delays or complications.²²
• Best Travel Time Suggestion: If travel is absolutely essential, conduct it during daylight hours and avoid known conflict zones or areas with recent incidents. This minimizes exposure to heightened risks often associated with nighttime or early morning hours.²¹

Travel advisories for Lebanon are consistently at a high level, often recommending “Do Not Travel” or “Avoid All Travel”.²² This indicates that the primary advice for travelers should be deterrence. For those who must travel, the focus shifts to minimizing risk through careful timing, meticulous route planning, and strict compliance with authorities. This guidance is essential for a highly vulnerable demographic, reinforcing the need for extreme caution and informed decision-making for anyone considering travel within or to Lebanon.

5. Forward-Looking Security Outlook

🔮 TOMORROW’S FORECAST

Predicted Meter Reading: 90/100 ⚡ Forecast Trend: VOLATILE

Expected Factors:

• Continued Israeli-Hezbollah Tensions: Hezbollah’s firm stance on not disarming until Israeli withdrawal ⁴and Israel’s continued “preventative” strikes ¹ strongly suggest this dynamic will persist. The core issues driving Lebanon’s insecurity—Israeli occupation of five points, Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm without full Israeli withdrawal, and the ineffective ceasefire monitoring—are deeply entrenched. Short-term diplomatic visits are unlikely to resolve these fundamental disagreements within a 24-hour window.
• US Diplomatic Efforts: The ongoing visit of US envoy Tom Barrack ⁶ will continue to shape the political narrative, but a significant breakthrough on disarmament is unlikely in the short term given Hezbollah’s publicly stated position.
• Internal Political Dynamics: The Lebanese government’s stated commitment to a state monopoly on weapons ⁵ contrasts sharply with Hezbollah’s stance, creating internal friction that could manifest in localized tensions or political maneuvering.
• Regional Developments: Broader regional conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran confrontation and the ongoing situation in Gaza, continue to significantly influence Lebanon’s security, with a constant potential for spillover or ripple effects.¹¹

Preparation Tip: Maintain heightened vigilance, especially in southern and eastern regions. Review emergency communication plans and ensure access to essential supplies, as conditions can change rapidly. The forecast will likely remain volatile, reinforcing the need for continuous vigilance rather than expecting immediate improvement. This manages public expectations and reinforces the long-term necessity of robust security measures.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY TRENDS – Daily Intelligence Briefing

Monthly Trend: WORSENING

Seasonal Note: Increased cross-border activity and heightened tensions are often observed during summer months, potentially exacerbated by significant religious observances like Ashura, which occurred on July 6th.4

The overall trend since the November 2024 ceasefire has been one of persistent violations and a “slow-moving open-ended conflict”.³¹ Civilian casualties remain a significant concern, with reports indicating approximately 250 killed and 600 wounded since November.⁴ The UN Secretary-General’s report noted a staggering 545% increase in grave violations against children in Lebanon in 2024 compared to 2023 ¹¹, indicating a deeply concerning and worsening humanitarian impact over time. Hezbollah is reportedly reviewing its strategy but has not committed to full disarmament.³²

While a ceasefire was declared in November 2024, the available data consistently demonstrates ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s continued armed posture. The significant increase in child casualties points to a humanitarian situation that is deteriorating, not improving. This suggests that the “ceasefire” has not led to true de-escalation but rather a shift to a lower-intensity, yet still deadly, form of conflict. The long-term outlook for Lebanon’s security therefore remains challenging.

6. Strategic Context: Geopolitical and Internal Dynamics

Overview of Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire and Violations:

The ceasefire agreement, which came into effect on November 27, 2024 ¹, was intended to halt hostilities and facilitate Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory, with Lebanon committed to preventing Hezbollah operations against Israel.¹¹ However, since the agreement, Israel has continued to conduct “near-daily” airstrikes within Lebanese territory, particularly in the south, asserting that these operations target Hezbollah members and weapons depots.¹ Israel has also maintained its occupation of five strategic border points in southern Lebanon.⁴ These actions are viewed by Lebanon as “blatant violations” of the ceasefire terms.⁵

The repeated emphasis on “ceasefire violations” from both Lebanese and Israeli perspectives indicates that the agreement has not led to a genuine cessation of military activity but rather a redefinition of the conflict’s parameters.¹ This situation can be characterized as a “cold war” with intermittent “hot” exchanges. This redefines the baseline security expectation for Lebanon. Instead of a return to pre-conflict stability, the nation is in a state of sustained, low-level conflict, demanding continuous vigilance and adaptive security measures from all stakeholders.

Hezbollah’s Stance, Capabilities, and Disarmament Discussions:

Hezbollah’s chief, Naim Qassem, explicitly stated on July 6th that the group will not disarm until Israel fully withdraws from occupied territories, ceases aggression, releases prisoners, and facilitates reconstruction efforts.¹ This position directly contradicts the US proposal for full disarmament within four months, which was presented to Lebanese officials.⁶ Despite this public rejection, reports suggest that Hezbollah is reviewing its strategy and considering scaling back its armed role 

without fully disarming, potentially turning over some weapon depots in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.⁶

Hezbollah’s public rejection of the US disarmament proposal creates a fundamental deadlock.⁴ While there are indications of an internal strategic review and potential partial concessions, these are contingent on Israeli withdrawal, which Israel is unwilling to do without disarmament. This creates a circular dependency that prevents a resolution to the core issue. The “weapons issue” therefore remains the central intractable problem. Without a major shift in either Israeli or Hezbollah’s position, the security situation will remain volatile, driven by this fundamental disagreement.

Role and Challenges of UNIFIL in Southern Lebanon:

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is mandated to support the ceasefire and assist the Lebanese Army in extending state control over southern Lebanon.¹¹ Lebanon has formally requested a one-year extension of UNIFIL’s mandate until August 2026.¹¹ However, UNIFIL itself has expressed concern over the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) “aggressive posture” and reported direct hits on its positions, including an incident on May 13 where a UNIFIL position was directly hit for the first time since the cessation of hostilities.¹¹

Furthermore, various reports suggest UNIFIL’s ineffectiveness on the ground, with “violent incidents between UNIFIL and Hezbollah” occurring “almost daily” and Hezbollah actively obstructing UNIFIL patrols.¹¹ There are even claims of active collaboration between UNIFIL soldiers and Hezbollah operatives.³⁴

UNIFIL, intended as a stabilizing force, appears to be caught between the conflicting parties and is facing significant operational challenges from both sides, including IDF aggression and Hezbollah obstruction or influence.¹¹ This suggests that the international monitoring mechanism, crucial for upholding the ceasefire, is severely compromised. The weakness of UNIFIL means there is less effective oversight and a higher risk of unmonitored escalations, contributing significantly to the overall unpredictability of the security environment.

Impact of US Diplomatic Efforts:

US envoy Tom Barrack is currently in Beirut for discussions on Hezbollah’s disarmament, with the US reportedly demanding full disarmament by the end of the year.⁶ Barrack expressed being “unbelievably satisfied” with Lebanon’s reply to the US roadmap.¹⁷ However, this satisfaction likely reflects the Lebanese government’s willingness to engage in the process, rather than a concrete commitment from Hezbollah to disarm. Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, has publicly rejected the notion of disarming under current conditions.⁴

The US diplomatic push is significant, but its immediate results appear limited by Hezbollah’s entrenched position. The “satisfaction” expressed by Barrack seems to be with the Lebanese government’s willingness to engage, rather than a concrete commitment from Hezbollah to disarm. This indicates that while diplomatic channels are open and active, they are currently insufficient to bridge the fundamental gaps between the parties. Therefore, while diplomacy offers a glimmer of hope, it is not a short-term solution to the immediate security challenges. The current diplomatic efforts may create temporary lulls or shifts in rhetoric but are unlikely to fundamentally alter the ground reality in the near future.

Internal Lebanese Political and Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Security:

Lebanon’s security situation is not solely a function of external conflict; it is profoundly shaped by deep-seated internal political divisions and a severe economic crisis. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has publicly committed to making 2025 the year the Lebanese state achieves a monopoly over weapons.¹¹ Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also publicly condemned Hezbollah’s recent armed parade, underscoring the government’s stance against non-state armed displays.¹⁸ However, these official positions often conflict with the reality of Hezbollah’s continued armed presence and influence.

The ongoing economic crisis and rampant inflation contribute to widespread food insecurity, with an estimated 4.1 million people requiring humanitarian assistance across the country in 2025.² This economic hardship and humanitarian need create fertile ground for social unrest, increased crime rates, and potential recruitment by armed groups, further weakening the state’s capacity to enforce its authority and maintain public order. Recent US Treasury sanctions on Hezbollah-linked financial institutions aim to limit the group’s influence and disrupt its financial schemes.²⁴ While these measures target Hezbollah’s economic lifeline, they can also contribute to broader economic instability within Lebanon.

The overall security environment is exacerbated by these compounding internal fragilities. Even if external tensions were to ease, Lebanon faces significant domestic challenges that inherently contribute to instability. This necessitates a holistic approach to security that addresses not only military threats but also underlying socio-economic factors and governance issues.

7. Conclusion: Implications for CIS Security Operations

The persistent and multi-faceted security challenges across Lebanon, as detailed in this report, underscore the critical and enduring need for CIS Security’s specialized expertise in real-time intelligence, comprehensive threat analysis, and robust protective services. The environment is characterized by unpredictable geopolitical dynamics, deep-seated internal fragilities, and a compromised international monitoring framework, making reliable security assessment and support indispensable.

CIS Security is uniquely positioned to provide actionable insights and practical solutions in this complex operational landscape. The daily CIS Security Meter™ serves as a vital tool, translating intricate intelligence into accessible, actionable guidance for residents, businesses, and travelers navigating these risks.

Moving forward, the CIS Security team must continue to meticulously monitor all available sources. This includes not only direct military incidents but also the subtle shifts in diplomatic rhetoric, internal political developments, and socio-economic indicators, as these factors can rapidly and fundamentally alter the security landscape. The long-term nature of Lebanon’s security challenges means that the current situation is not a temporary anomaly but an ongoing, entrenched conflict. This reinforces the necessity for sustained security awareness and the continuous provision of professional security services.

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Lebanon Daily Intelligence Briefing – CIS Security
Stay ahead of emerging threats with CIS Security’s trusted Daily Intelligence Briefing. Updated every morning, our report delivers verified security alerts, regional developments, and situational awareness across all of Lebanon’s critical zones. Whether you’re a business owner, property manager, or concerned resident, our intelligence brief helps you make informed decisions to protect what matters most. From Beirut to the Bekaa Valley, we cover civil unrest, border tensions, road safety risks, and more—all filtered through our 35+ years of professional security experience.

If you value real-time protection and actionable intelligence, CIS Security is your partner of choice. As Lebanon’s most trusted security company since 1990, we provide 24/7 guarding services, CCTV surveillance, GPS tracking, and emergency response support. Explore our complete range of solutions at www.cissecurity.net or www.cissecurity.pro. Contact us today at info@cissecurity.net and let us safeguard your world.

Lebanon Daily Intelligence Briefing – CIS Security