CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – March 2 2026

Monday, March 2, 2026 | Ramadan Day 13

⚠️ SPECIAL WAR ESCALATION EDITION ⚠️

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 CRITICAL — MAXIMUM OVERALL INDEX: 98/100 — HIGHEST EVER RECORDED TREND: ⬆️⬆️ CATASTROPHIC ESCALATION — CEASEFIRE IS OVER HEADLINE: HEZBOLLAH FIRES ON ISRAEL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE NOV 2024 — BEIRUT BOMBED — 52+ KILLED — NOVEMBER 2024 CEASEFIRE DECLARED OVER BY US — ISRAEL THREATENS GROUND INVASION — MASSIVE DISPLACEMENT UNDERWAY

⛔ THIS IS A MAXIMUM EMERGENCY EDITION OF THE CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX. The security situation has changed fundamentally since the last edition. Every Lebanese resident, expatriate family member, business, and organisation must treat today’s briefing as a life-safety document. The November 2024 ceasefire has effectively collapsed. Lebanon is in active conflict.

🚨 THE CRITICAL CHAIN OF EVENTS — HOW WE GOT HERE

Understanding today requires understanding the 72-hour sequence that preceded it:

Saturday, February 28 / March 1: The United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran. In the opening hours, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Tehran, along with dozens of senior Iranian officials. This was the most seismic event in Middle Eastern geopolitics in decades. Iran began retaliating with waves of ballistic missiles targeting Israel, US military bases, and regional countries.

Sunday, March 1: Hezbollah condemned the killing of Khamenei in the most strident terms, calling it a “height of criminality.” Thousands gathered in Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburb, to mourn Khamenei. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem vowed to “fulfil its duty in confronting aggression.” Lebanon’s government pleaded for restraint. President Aoun convened an emergency meeting of the Higher Defence Council, stating “the decision of war and peace rests solely with the Lebanese state.” PM Salam warned Lebanon “refuses to be dragged into adventures.” Hezbollah initially appeared to hold.

Early Monday, March 2 — Approximately 00:30-02:40 AM: Hezbollah broke its silence and its 15-month restraint. It launched what it described as “a barrage of precision missiles and a swarm of drones” targeting the Mishmar HaCarmel missile-defense site south of Haifa, northern Israel. This was the first confirmed Hezbollah attack on Israel since the November 27, 2024 ceasefire. The attack was declared to be “revenge for the blood of the Supreme Leader of the Muslims, Ali Khamenei” and “in defence of Lebanon and its people.”

Monday, March 2 — 02:40 AM onwards: Israel launched its response. Within minutes, massive airstrikes hit Dahiyeh — Beirut’s southern suburbs — in what witnesses described as the most intensive bombardment since the 2024 war. More than a dozen explosions rocked Beirut. By morning, the Lebanese Health Ministry reported 31 killed and 149 wounded. By evening, the toll rose to at least 52 killed and 154 wounded across Lebanon. The November 2024 ceasefire was over.

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — MONDAY MARCH 2, 2026 (LIVE)

🔴 BREAKING #1 — 52+ KILLED, 154+ WOUNDED — TOLL STILL RISING

[Lebanon Health Ministry, AFP, AP — confirmed as of evening March 2]

<Lebanese Health Ministry confirmed at least 52 people killed and 154 wounded across Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) and south Lebanon in Israeli strikes today. Twenty of the dead and 91 wounded were in Beirut; 11 killed and 58 wounded in the south. The toll continues to rise as strikes persist into the evening. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad group also confirmed the commander of its military wing in Lebanon was killed in a strike south of Beirut.

These are the deadliest strikes on Lebanon since the major escalation of September 23, 2024, when Israeli attacks killed approximately 500 people in a single day.

🔴 BREAKING #2 — HEZBOLLAH PARLIAMENTARY LEADER MOHAMMAD RAAD KILLED IN DAHIYEH

[Al-Arabiya, Al-Hadath, MTV Lebanon, Times of Israel — multiple sources, morning March 2]

Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc (the “Loyalty to the Resistance” bloc) and one of the most senior surviving Hezbollah political figures, was reportedly killed in Israeli airstrikes on Dahiyeh in the early morning hours. Raad had served as head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary faction since 2000 — more than 25 years. He represented the Nabatieh district and was considered a founding architect of Hezbollah’s political strategy. The IDF confirmed strikes on senior Hezbollah figures but had not officially named Raad as of the latest reports. Israeli media describes this as part of a “decapitation campaign” adding Hezbollah’s political leadership to the target set after military and intelligence leaders were decimated in 2024.

🔴 BREAKING #3 — HEZBOLLAH INTELLIGENCE CHIEF HUSSEIN MOKALED KILLED

[IDF confirmed, Times of Israel — March 2]

The IDF formally confirmed it killed Hussein Mokaled (also transliterated as Maklad/Makled), described as the head of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters. According to the IDF, Mokaled was responsible for compiling intelligence assessments on IDF forces and coordinating with senior Hezbollah commanders to plan attacks against Israel. His killing represents a direct blow to Hezbollah’s intelligence infrastructure during the most critical period of potential re-escalation.

🔴 BREAKING #4 — 70+ HEZBOLLAH SITES STRUCK ACROSS LEBANON TODAY

[IDF statement, confirmed by multiple outlets]

The IDF announced it “completed a broad wave of strikes on Hezbollah terrorist organisation targets in southern Lebanon” hitting “more than 70 weapons storage facilities, launch sites, and missile launchers.” Separately, the IDF carried out a major wave of strikes against branches of al-Qard al-Hasan, a Hezbollah-linked microfinance institution, which Israel says is used to store money, manage Hezbollah salaries, transfer funds from Iran, and purchase weapons. This financial infrastructure targeting is intended to cut Hezbollah’s economic lifelines during the re-escalation.

Strikes hit confirmed locations including: Dahiyeh/Burj al-Barajneh and Haret Hreik (Beirut); Bint Jbeil, Khirbet Salem, Al-Mansuriyeh, Deir Siryan (South Lebanon); and sites across the Bekaa Valley.

🔴 BREAKING #5 — IDF ISSUES EVACUATION WARNINGS TO 50+ VILLAGES; THREATENS GROUND INVASION

[IDF, Times of Israel, AP — March 2]

This morning, the IDF issued evacuation warnings to more than 50 towns and villages in southern and eastern Lebanon. Lt. Col. Ella Waweya, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokeswoman, stated: “For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately and move at least 1,000 meters away from the villages to open areas.” Villages named in warnings include: Tyre district villages, Naqqoura, Taybeh, Jubayn, Matmoura, Adaisse, Beit Lif, Blida, Bani Hayyan, Bint Jbeil, Houla, Hanin, Tair Harfa, Yaroun, Yaroun, Kfar Kela, Mahaibib, Meis al-Jabal, Marwaheen, Maroun al-Ras, and Markaba.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir stated the military has launched an “offensive campaign against Hezbollah” that “will likely last several days, many.” IDF military spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said Israel is keeping “all options on the table,” explicitly including a ground invasion of Lebanon. Israel has called up more than 100,000 reservists since the war with Iran began on Saturday.

IDF Northern Command Chief MG Rafi Milo stated: “Hezbollah chose the Iranian regime over the state of Lebanon and initiated an attack on our civilians. We were prepared — and they will pay a heavy price.”

🔴 BREAKING #6 — HEZBOLLAH HITS RAF AKROTIRI AIRBASE IN CYPRUS

[Times of Israel, Euronews, Cypriot officials — March 2]

In a dramatic expansion of the conflict, senior Cypriot officials confirmed that an Iranian-made Shahed drone hit the RAF’s Akrotiri military airbase on Cyprus, causing damage to the runway and limited damage to the base. No casualties were reported. Two more drones were detected heading toward Akrotiri during the day — they were intercepted. The UK confirmed the strike. This is the first confirmed Hezbollah attack on a NATO-adjacent military facility in this conflict cycle.

🔴 BREAKING #7 — LEBANESE GOVERNMENT FORMALLY BANS HEZBOLLAH MILITARY ACTIVITIES — UNPRECEDENTED

[PM Salam statement, AFP, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel — confirmed March 2]

In an extraordinary and unprecedented move — never taken in Lebanon’s political history — PM Nawaf Salam after an emergency cabinet meeting at Baabda Palace formally announced:

• An “immediate ban” on all of Hezbollah’s military and security activities, declaring them “illegal”
• An order for Hezbollah to hand over all its weapons to the Lebanese state immediately
• An instruction to the Lebanese Army to enforce the disarmament plan “by all means possible”
• A declaration that Hezbollah’s role must be limited strictly to the political sphere
• An order to security forces to arrest violators and prevent any military operation or launch of missiles from Lebanese territory

Salam also called Hezbollah’s attack “an irresponsible and suspicious act that jeopardises Lebanon’s security and safety and provides Israel with pretexts to continue its aggression.” He called on the US and France to obtain “a clear and final commitment from Israel to cease all attacks on Lebanese territory.”

Hezbollah’s response: The ban was immediately condemned. Hezbollah lawmaker Mohammad Raad (before his reported killing) and parliamentary official stated the government was “swaggering” and condemned “taking aggressive measures against the Lebanese who reject the occupation.” A top Hezbollah official said: “The Lebanese were expecting a decision rejecting the [Israeli] aggression, but instead they were faced with a decision to ban the rejection of aggression.”

This is the most significant assertion of Lebanese state sovereignty over Hezbollah in the history of the Lebanese Republic.

🔴 BREAKING #8 — US DECLARES NOVEMBER 2024 CEASEFIRE “OVER”; DEMANDS HEZBOLLAH DESIGNATED AS TERRORIST ORGANISATION

[US officials to MTV Lebanon — confirmed March 2]

US officials told MTV Lebanon that they now consider the November 2024 ceasefire in Lebanon to be over. The US stated it will not interfere to stop Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. US officials said they did not expect Lebanon’s airport or ports to be targeted but issued a stark demand: Lebanon must formally designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation — “otherwise, there will be no distinction between [Lebanon and Hezbollah].”

This is an existential political ultimatum to the Lebanese state, delivered in the middle of active military operations.

🔴 BREAKING #9 — MASS DISPLACEMENT UNDERWAY — 29,000+ IN SHELTERS NOW; HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS FLEEING

[Lebanon Ministry of Social Affairs, AP, Al Jazeera — March 2]

Lebanon’s Social Affairs Minister Hanin al-Sayed confirmed that 171 shelters have been opened throughout the country, currently housing 29,000 displaced persons — and filling rapidly. The Ministry of Education has closed all schools and educational institutions for Tuesday.

Scenes today recalled the worst days of September 2024: bumper-to-bumper traffic on all roads north from south Lebanon and Dahiyeh; families fleeing on foot; children crying on pavements. Ali Hamdan, fleeing Deir al-Zahrani to Sidon, said a normally 30-minute journey had taken seven hours. “I’m headed toward Beirut, but I don’t know where yet. We don’t have a place to stay.”

Nader Hani Akil, who fled Burj al-Barajneh at 2:30 AM, sat outside a school shelter and told Al Jazeera: “I was sleeping when bombing and rocket attacks started.” The Al Jazeera correspondent noted the scene was “chaotic with bumper-to-bumper traffic, people fleeing on foot and children crying.” At displacement point in Martyrs’ Square, families sat with mattresses, plastic bags, and bundles of clothing.

During the 2024 war, at its peak, more than one million people were displaced in Lebanon. Today’s trajectory is pointing toward comparable scale.

🔴 BREAKING #10 — BEIRUT AIRPORT: 70+ FLIGHTS CANCELLED; AIRPORT OPEN BUT UNSTABLE

[Euronews, Travel & Tour World, US Embassy — March 2]

Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport has seen more than 70 flight cancellations. Most flights in and out were cancelled according to the airport’s website, although the airport itself has not been struck. Turkish Airlines has suspended all Lebanon flights. Multiple carriers including Air India, Wizz Air, Oman Air, and Saudia have cancelled Middle East operations broadly. The airport remains technically open with some commercial availability.

The US Embassy issued an emergency security alert stating: “If you are in the country, the Department of State urges U.S. citizens to depart Lebanon NOW while commercial flight options remain available.” All consular services are suspended until further notice. The US Embassy stated it currently has no ability to provide any assistance to US citizens in Lebanon.

Israel has reportedly sent an indirect message that it could strike civilian infrastructure including Beirut’s airport should Hezbollah continue its attack operations.

🔴 BREAKING #11 — ISRAEL DEFENSE MINISTER: NAIM QASSEM IS “A MARKED TARGET”

[Israeli Defense Minister Katz, confirmed March 2]

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem is now “a marked target for elimination.” Katz warned: “We will strike Hezbollah hard, and Naim Qassem will discover that whoever follows Khamenei’s path ends up like Khamenei — in the depths of hell.” This is an explicit, public assassination threat against the serving head of a political party represented in the Lebanese parliament. Hezbollah’s chain of command is now under full decapitation threat.

🔴 BREAKING #12 — NAIM QASSEM CHIEF NOW PUBLICLY MARKED; HEZBOLLAH FIRES THIRD DRONE AT ISRAEL (INTERCEPTED)

[IDF, Times of Israel — evening March 2]

By evening on March 2, the IDF reported intercepting a third drone launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Hezbollah’s attacks, though less intense than feared, are continuing into the night. The IDF described this as an ongoing “offensive campaign” with no end date.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MARCH 2, 2026

⚠️ NOTE: With the ceasefire declared over and Israel conducting an active offensive campaign across Lebanon, ALL GOVERNORATES are now at elevated risk levels not previously seen since the 2024 war. Residents and businesses should not interpret any rating below 90 as “safe.” The entire country is an active conflict zone.

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 96/100 🔴🔴 | CRITICAL MAXIMUM Trend: ⬆️⬆️ CATASTROPHIC ESCALATION — ACTIVE BOMBING ONGOING

Beirut has been transformed in a single night from a city managing a simmering post-ceasefire crisis into an active war zone. The southern suburbs — Dahiyeh, specifically Burj al-Barajneh and Haret Hreik — have been struck by waves of Israeli airstrikes, the most intensive bombardment since 2024. Buildings have collapsed. Residents who fled to school shelters are sleeping on floors. Martyrs’ Square has become an improvised displacement camp.

The Lebanese government’s unprecedented decision to formally ban Hezbollah’s military activities and demand it surrender weapons represents the most constitutionally significant act of the Salam government, and one that will define Lebanon’s political landscape for years. But it has zero enforcement mechanism against Hezbollah in the short term while bombs are falling. Hezbollah’s response was contempt and continued operations.

The US demand that Lebanon designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation “otherwise there will be no distinction” is a political ultimatum that, if not met, could lead to the US giving Israel a green light to treat Lebanese state infrastructure as legitimate targets — including ports and the airport.

Israeli Defense Minister Katz has publicly named Hezbollah SG Qassem as a marked assassination target. A strike on Qassem in Beirut would be one of the most significant single military actions of the war.

Schools are closed by government order on Tuesday.

DO NOT TRAVEL TO BEIRUT’S SOUTHERN SUBURBS (DAHIYEH) UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

Key Factors Today: Active Israeli airstrikes on Dahiyeh ongoing; Mohammad Raad reportedly killed; Hezbollah intelligence chief confirmed killed; Lebanese government bans Hezbollah military activities; US declares ceasefire over; 20 dead and 91 wounded in Beirut today alone.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 88/100 🔴 | CRITICAL — ESCALATING

Mount Lebanon is receiving the flood of displaced persons from Dahiyeh and the south. Roads leading northward are jammed with refugee traffic — what was a 30-minute journey has taken seven hours for some. The 171 shelters opened by the government are already housing 29,000 people and filling rapidly.

The economic impact is immediate and devastating: Beirut airport cancellations have isolated the country commercially; schools are closed; businesses in Beirut proper face the prospect of Israeli drone activity continuing overhead. The Israeli drone presence over Dahiyeh — visible in multiple AFP photos published today — is psychologically terrorising for residents throughout greater Beirut.

The US Embassy on the Awkar highway (north Beirut) has suspended all consular services. Multiple European embassies are urging nationals to depart.

Mount Lebanon governorate is not currently being struck but is in the direct blast radius of any escalation toward central Beirut. If Hezbollah launches further attacks or if Israel expands its target set northward, Mount Lebanon becomes directly threatened.

Key Factor: Mass displacement influx overwhelming shelters; airport disruption isolating country; potential Hezbollah military activity in the Shouf and Metn adds latent risk.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 83/100 🔴 | CRITICAL

North Lebanon and Tripoli are currently receiving displaced families and remain out of the direct strike zone. However, Tripoli’s own economic crisis — already severe before today — is compounded by the new national emergency. Food and fuel supply chains are disrupted by the Beirut airport and port uncertainty.

The IDF has not issued evacuation warnings for north Lebanon, but the Israel-Cyprus drone incident (RAF Akrotiri hit by Shahed drone today) demonstrates that Hezbollah assets can reach far beyond Lebanon’s borders. A Hezbollah decision to escalate further could put the Tripoli port — Lebanon’s lifeline for northern supply — at risk.

Key Factor: Displacement influx; supply chain disruption; economic crisis deepens under war conditions; north is currently stable but vulnerable to supply disruption.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 85/100 🔴 | CRITICAL

Akkar’s Syrian border corridor is under additional stress. The US-Israeli war on Iran has activated Iranian proxy networks throughout the region. The risk of armed cross-border infiltration or weapons transfers through the Akkar corridor is elevated. Lebanese Army border operations continue but face resource constraints during the broader national emergency.

Key Factor: Syrian border vulnerability during active regional war; arms interdiction risk; supply chain disruption from Beirut.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 96/100 🔴🔴 | CRITICAL MAXIMUM

The Bekaa Valley is one of today’s confirmed active strike zones. Israeli airstrikes were reported in the Bekaa Valley during today’s operations. The Bekaa is Hezbollah’s strategic rear, its primary weapons storage corridor, and the main conduit for Iranian arms. With Iran actively at war with Israel and the US, and Hezbollah now having fired on Israel, the Bekaa is the most obvious resupply and mobilisation zone — and thus the primary Israeli pre-emptive strike priority north of the Litani.

IDF evacuation warnings issued to towns in southern and eastern Lebanon today include Bekaa border communities. IDF strikes on Hezbollah weapons storage facilities numbered 70+ today, many in the Bekaa corridor.

Anyone in the Bekaa Valley — especially Baalbek-Hermel corridor — must treat this as an active war zone.

Key Factor: Confirmed active Israeli strikes today; Hezbollah mobilisation zone; Iranian arms corridor; IDF evacuation warnings issued. DO NOT TRAVEL.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | CRITICAL MAXIMUM — ACTIVE WAR ZONE

Baalbek-Hermel is at the absolute epicentre of today’s danger. This is Hezbollah’s heartland. Its weapons infrastructure, command structures, and community support are deepest here. With Hezbollah now openly at war and Iran’s axis fully activated, Baalbek-Hermel is an Israeli strike priority of the highest order.

The IDF has struck weapons storage sites, launch pads, and logistical infrastructure throughout this corridor today. With Hezbollah intelligence chief Mokaled killed and parliamentary leader Raad reportedly killed, Israel is clearly conducting a decapitation campaign. Senior Hezbollah figures who are alive know they are targets. Movement of Hezbollah personnel through Baalbek-Hermel creates constant targeting risk for surrounding civilian populations.

IDF Chief of Staff Zamir has stated the offensive “will likely last several days, many.” Baalbek-Hermel should be treated as potentially under continuous airstrike threat for days to come.

Key Factor: Confirmed active strikes today; Hezbollah heartland and weapons corridor; decapitation campaign ongoing; IDF offensive to last “several days, many.”

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 80/100 🔴 | CRITICAL

Keserwan-Jbeil is not a current strike zone but is affected by the catastrophic economic and security environment. Airport cancellations, displacement inflows, and the general war atmosphere are devastating commerce and tourism. Any Hezbollah escalation northward — or any Israeli strike on a Hezbollah target in the area — would immediately elevate this rating.

Key Factor: Not currently targeted but economic collapse deepens; geographic vulnerability if conflict spreads north.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 99/100 🔴🔴 | MAXIMUM — CATASTROPHIC ACTIVE WAR ZONE

South Lebanon is today’s most dangerous zone in Lebanon — a distinction that is genuinely competitive on this date. Confirmed strikes today include Bint Jbeil, Khirbet Salem, Al-Mansuriyeh, Deir Siryan, and dozens more across 50+ villages under IDF evacuation warning.

Roads out of south Lebanon are gridlocked. The coastal road through Sidon is jammed with evacuating families in trucks, cars, and on foot. A journey normally taking 30 minutes has taken seven hours. There is a humanitarian emergency developing in real time as families with no resources, no shelter bookings, and no destination flee northward.

IDF says all options are “on the table” including a ground invasion. 100,000 reservists have been called up. IDF Northern Command is bolstering its presence on the border. The five Israeli-occupied positions in Lebanese territory become staging platforms for any potential ground operation.

Five villages whose names appeared in IDF evacuation warnings issued today are precisely those that have seen Israeli ground incursions in recent weeks — Yaroun, Kfar Kela, Meis al-Jabal — suggesting ground operations could follow airstrikes in these communities.

DO NOT BE IN SOUTH LEBANON. IF YOU ARE IN SOUTH LEBANON, DEPART IMMEDIATELY USING THE COASTAL ROAD NORTH. AVOID INLAND ROUTES WHERE STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.

Key Factor: Confirmed mass airstrikes today; 50+ villages under IDF evacuation orders; ground invasion on the table; mass displacement crisis on roads; 11 killed and 58 wounded in south today alone.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 98/100 🔴🔴 | MAXIMUM — ACTIVE WAR ZONE

Nabatieh Governorate — the corridor between the Israeli border and Sidon — is fully inside today’s active operational zone. The Bint Jbeil District, Marjayoun District, and Nabatieh District are all covered by IDF evacuation warnings. Confirmed strikes hit Bint Jbeil today. The coastal road through Sidon is the primary evacuation corridor — meaning Nabatieh residents are simultaneously in a strike zone and on the primary evacuation route for south Lebanon.

The Sidon area (Awali corridor) is Phase 2 disarmament territory — but all Lebanese government disarmament planning is effectively suspended while the country is at war. The Lebanese Army’s “understandings” approach has been superseded by events.

Nabatieh’s civilian population is caught in a three-way crisis: Israel striking above, a jammed evacuation road below, and Hezbollah’s military infrastructure interspersed throughout communities.

Key Factor: Active strikes on Bint Jbeil; all Marjayoun and Nabatieh communities under IDF evacuation warning; coastal evacuation road jammed; mass civilian emergency in progress.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — MARCH 2, 2026

🔥 THREAT TIERING — RIGHT NOW

TIER 1 — ACTIVE KINETIC THREAT — BEING STRUCK NOW OR IN LAST 6 HOURS:

1. Dahiyeh (Burj al-Barajneh, Haret Hreik), Beirut — Mass airstrikes overnight and continuing; Mohammad Raad killed; intelligence chief killed; multiple buildings struck
2. Bint Jbeil District (Nabatieh) — Active strikes confirmed today; evacuation orders issued
3. South Lebanon (50+ villages) — IDF evacuation orders; mass strikes on weapons storage, launch sites
4. Bekaa Valley — Active IDF strikes; Hezbollah mobilisation zone; weapons storage targeted
5. Baalbek-Hermel Corridor — Hezbollah heartland under active decapitation and infrastructure campaign
6. al-Qard al-Hasan bank branches — Targeted across Lebanon for Hezbollah financial infrastructure

TIER 2 — IMMINENT KINETIC THREAT IN NEXT 12-24 HOURS: 7. Any location near Hezbollah leadership — Decapitation campaign continues; Qassem publicly marked for assassination 8. All IDF-warned villages (50+ named today) — IDF has historically followed evacuation warnings with strikes within hours 9. Hezbollah weapons storage sites not yet struck — 70+ were hit today; remaining sites are next wave targets 10. Hezbollah-linked financial infrastructure — al-Qard al-Hasan branches nationally

TIER 3 — STRATEGIC ESCALATION RISK — NEXT 24-72 HOURS: 11. Beirut airport — Israel has reportedly communicated threat to strike airport if Hezbollah continues; airport is currently open but could be struck or closed at any moment 12. Beirut seaport — Same logic as airport; essential for Lebanon’s food and fuel supply 13. Ground invasion crossing points — Israeli reservist callup (100,000) and “all options on table” statement makes ground operation a real possibility 14. Hezbollah missile arsenal not yet fired — Despite today’s attacks, Hezbollah retains a substantial qualitative missile arsenal; if fully activated, it could strike Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport, and throughout Israel — triggering maximum Israeli response against Lebanon

⚠️ STRATEGIC SITUATION ASSESSMENT — MARCH 2, 2026

WHERE ARE WE?

Lebanon has crossed from post-ceasefire “managed instability” into active war in the space of 24 hours. The trigger — Hezbollah’s decision to fire on Israel in response to Khamenei’s killing — has shattered the framework that Lebanese government, the Lebanese Army, France, the US Quintet, and international donors had spent 15 months carefully constructing.

The following frameworks are now effectively suspended or void:

• The November 27, 2024 ceasefire (declared over by US)
• The Phase 2 disarmament plan (superseded by war)
• The Paris conference (March 5, scheduled — its relevance now uncertain)
• UNIFIL operations (under maximum threat; UNIFIL units suspended operations for 9 hours during earlier toxic spraying; under live-fire risk today)
• Lebanon parliamentary elections May 10 (cannot occur in current environment)

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT — SCENARIO ANALYSIS:

Scenario A — Contained Escalation (decreasing probability): Israel limits its campaign to several days of strikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, as IDF Chief Zamir indicated. Lebanon’s government enforces its Hezbollah ban with sufficient credibility that Hezbollah limits further attacks. A new ceasefire framework is brokered within 1-2 weeks. Probability: declining by the hour.

Scenario B — Sustained Air Campaign (currently most likely): Israel conducts a multi-week air campaign against Hezbollah across Lebanon, similar to 2006 or the September-November 2024 phase. Hezbollah fires sporadically but does not deploy its full missile arsenal. Mass displacement of 200,000-500,000 Lebanese. Systematic destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure but no Israeli ground invasion. Duration: weeks to months.

Scenario C — Ground Invasion (elevated probability given reservist callup): Israel launches a ground operation into south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, combined with the air campaign. This was openly threatened by IDF spokesman today. 100,000 reservists called up. The five existing Israeli occupied positions become staging points. Duration: months; casualties: potentially thousands. Lebanon’s reconstruction set back by years.

Scenario D — Full Regional War (lower but non-trivial probability): Iran’s ongoing war with Israel and the US activates Hezbollah’s full missile arsenal. Hezbollah fires on Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport. Israel strikes Beirut port and airport. Lebanon’s economy collapses entirely. Regional war involving multiple fronts. The most catastrophic outcome for Lebanon.

📊 LEBANON STATUS DASHBOARD — MARCH 2, 2026

📱 EMERGENCY SECURITY GUIDANCE — MONDAY MARCH 2, 2026

🚨 FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LEBANON — EMERGENCY INSTRUCTIONS:

IF YOU ARE IN SOUTH LEBANON OR NABATIEH: Depart immediately using the coastal road (Route 51) northward through Sidon to Beirut and beyond. Avoid inland roads near the Litani, Bekaa edge, or Marjayoun corridor. Expect gridlock — plan for a journey of many hours. Do not return home until CIS Security or official Lebanese government sources confirm the all-clear. Bring essential documents, medication, and cash. Do not wait for “official orders” — official orders have already been issued by the IDF for 50+ villages.

IF YOU ARE IN DAHIYEH (BURJ AL-BARAJNEH, HARET HREIK, LAYLAKI): Leave immediately. Go north of the Ring Road. Do not shelter in the area. Register at one of the 171 designated school shelters throughout Beirut and Mount Lebanon.

IF YOU ARE IN THE BEKAA VALLEY OR BAALBEK-HERMEL: Maximum alert. These are active strike zones today. Depart westward toward Zahle and then north. Do not remain near any location associated with Hezbollah infrastructure, storage, or personnel.

IF YOU ARE IN BEIRUT (OUTSIDE DAHIYEH): Do not travel to the southern suburbs. Monitor the situation continuously. Prepare a shelter-in-place plan. Identify the nearest school or public building designated as a shelter. Have essentials packed. Ensure mobile phone is charged.

FOR ALL FOREIGN NATIONALS: The US Embassy has ordered Americans to depart Lebanon NOW while commercial flights remain available and has suspended all consular services. Multiple other embassies are issuing equivalent guidance. If you are a foreign national, depart via Beirut airport immediately. Check airline availability directly — the airport is open but availability is changing by the hour. Do not count on government-assisted evacuation.

🚗 EMERGENCY TRAVEL ADVISORY TABLE:

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:

• Activate business continuity and emergency protocols NOW
• Assume operations in south Lebanon, Dahiyeh, and the Bekaa are suspended indefinitely
• Secure physical assets; do not rely on staff to report to work in active strike zones
• Monitor Beirut airport and port status hourly — supply chains will be severed if either is struck
• If operating in any area covered by IDF evacuation warnings, suspend operations and prioritise employee safety
• Review insurance coverage for active conflict scenarios

ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT: The Strait of Hormuz has been declared closed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards — this will trigger significant fuel and commodity price surges globally and acutely in Lebanon, which is already in economic crisis. Plan for severe fuel shortages and supply chain disruption within days.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — EMERGENCY OPERATIONS — MARCH 2, 2026

🚨 CIS SECURITY IS OPERATING ON EMERGENCY FOOTING ACROSS ALL GOVERNORATES

With Lebanon having entered a state of active war as of the early hours of March 2, CIS Security has activated its full emergency operations posture. Our teams are deployed across all regions providing real-time security intelligence, protective detail, and evacuation support.

EMERGENCY SERVICES NOW ACTIVE:

Evacuation Coordination Real-time route intelligence for south Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, and Dahiyeh evacuations. CIS teams monitoring all major routes including the Sidon coastal road, the Zahle westbound route, and northern mountain alternative routes. Contact us for live route status before departing.

Individual and Family Protective Detail Personal security escorts for high-risk individuals and families in Beirut and active regions. Priority for medical personnel, journalists, diplomatic personnel, and vulnerable families without transport.

Business Continuity Security Assessment Emergency assessment of all Lebanese business operations for continuity, asset protection, and staff safety. Rapid deployment to secure commercial facilities in affected areas.

Real-Time Strike Intelligence CIS Security operations centre tracking all confirmed and reported Israeli strike locations across Lebanon in real time. Available to subscribed clients via secure channel.

Shelter Coordination CIS Security in coordination with Lebanon’s Ministry of Social Affairs to identify and verify shelter safety in Beirut, Mount Lebanon, and North Lebanon governorates.

Airport Liaison Real-time airport and flight availability monitoring. Liaison with carriers still operating for priority booking coordination for high-risk clients.

📞 CIS SECURITY EMERGENCY CONTACTS

🚨 EMERGENCY HOTLINE (ACTIVE 24/7): +961-3-539900 WEBSITE: www.cissecurity.net EVACUATION COORDINATION: Priority line for south Lebanon and Dahiyeh clients

“Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 — Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company 35+ Years of crisis experience — serving all Lebanese governorates in the country’s most critical moments

⚠️ MAXIMUM EMERGENCY OPERATIONAL NOTICE — MARCH 2, 2026

THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED FUNDAMENTALLY.

As of 02:40 AM on March 2, 2026, Lebanon crossed back into active war. The November 2024 ceasefire is over. Israel is conducting an offensive campaign described by its military chief as lasting “several days, many.” One hundred thousand Israeli reservists have been called up. Ground invasion has been explicitly threatened. Hezbollah’s political and intelligence leadership has been decapitated in today’s strikes. The Lebanese government has taken the unprecedented step of formally banning Hezbollah’s military activities. The US has declared the ceasefire void. Mass displacement is underway.

Everything changes from today. All plans, travel, business operations, and security posture in Lebanon must be reassessed as of right now.

CIS Security will publish updated emergency briefings as the situation develops.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — Monday, March 2, 2026 | Ramadan Day 13 | MAXIMUM EMERGENCY EDITION Published: Evening, Monday March 2, 2026 Sources: Al Jazeera (multiple articles), Associated Press, Times of Israel (liveblog), AFP, Reuters, Middle East Eye, US Embassy Beirut official alert, Lebanon Health Ministry, Lebanon Social Affairs Ministry, Euronews, Morocco World News, France24, Al-Monitor, Daily Sabah, Gulf News, IDF official statements, Lebanese Government Press Office All events cited are drawn from named, credible, verified news sources published on March 2, 2026. Index revised from previous maximum of 89/100 to 98/100 overall; South Lebanon 99/100; Baalbek-Hermel 97/100; Bekaa 96/100; Beirut 96/100.