CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Oct 26 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL – TWO KILLED TODAY & SENIOR COMMANDER TARGETED
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 89/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬆️ ESCALATION – SUNDAY’S DEATHS & HIGH-PROFILE TARGETING

🚨 BREAKING: SUNDAY OCTOBER 26 – TWO KILLED & SENIOR HEZBOLLAH COMMANDER TARGETED

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

SUNDAY’S TWO KILLED IN SOUTHERN STRIKES: Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon today killed two people – one in car attack in Naqoura (Tyre province) and another in Nabi Sheet village (eastern Baalbek region), with Israeli media claiming forces targeted senior Hezbollah commander in eastern raid.

SATURDAY’S TWO DEATHS PLUS ONE IN HAROUF: Lebanese health ministry reported two killed and one wounded Saturday in strikes on south, including Israeli drone strike on car in Harouf town killing one and wounding another – marking deadly weekend escalation.

AITAROUN WAR REMNANTS INJURE ONE: Lebanese health ministry said one person wounded today after war remnants exploded in Aitaroun town in south, demonstrating continuing danger from unexploded ordnance across conflict zones.

IRAN CONDEMNS “HOSTILE” STRIKES: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson denounced today’s Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and Bekaa as “hostile” actions, continuing international condemnation pattern of ceasefire violations.

ORTAGUS, BARRACK & EGYPTIAN DELEGATION VISITING: High-level US officials Morgan Ortagus and Tom Barrack plus Egyptian delegation scheduled to visit Lebanon, indicating continuing diplomatic efforts amid escalating violations.

LAF DISARMAMENT PLAN ADVANCING: Lebanese cabinet endorsed LAF’s five-stage plan to disarm Hezbollah by December 2025 with international support, though Information Minister notes may require “additional time, additional effort” due to LAF capacity restrictions.

INTENSIFIED STRIKES IN RECENT WEEKS: Israel has intensified strikes recently with several deadly attacks over past days, demonstrating escalating pattern despite November 2024 ceasefire agreement.

LAF SUCCESS: 10,000 ROCKETS & 400 MISSILES REMOVED: Lebanese Armed Forces successfully removed nearly 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance during past year with US CENTCOM praising disarmament progress.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Sunday’s Deaths and High-Level Visits. The capital coordinates environment as Ortagus, Barrack and Egyptian delegation visit while Sunday’s two deaths and Saturday’s strikes demonstrate continuing escalation.

Government facilities manage transition with LAF’s disarmament plan advancement and high-level diplomatic visits while Sunday’s two deaths (Naqoura, Nabi Sheet) and Saturday’s strikes show systematic violations continuing.

The combination of LAF’s five-stage plan progress, Sunday’s two deaths, senior commander targeting, high-level US/Egyptian visits, and intensified recent strikes creates critical environment.

Economic activities face mixed signals from diplomatic visits and LAF progress while Sunday’s deaths and weekend escalation demonstrate continuing challenges.

Security coordination advances with LAF’s disarmament plan while managing Sunday’s two deaths, Saturday’s strikes, and preparing for high-level diplomatic delegations.

Key Factor: Capital coordinating high-level visits (Ortagus, Barrack, Egyptian delegation) despite Sunday’s two deaths and intensified strike pattern.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 62/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Diplomatic Visits Amid Weekend Deaths. The governorate observes high-level US/Egyptian visits while processing Sunday’s two deaths and Saturday’s strikes.

Tourism sector experiences cautious signals from diplomatic engagement while Sunday’s deaths and intensified recent strikes maintain elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from high-level visits and LAF plan while weekend escalation demonstrates challenges.

Regional communities observe diplomatic efforts with hope while Sunday’s two deaths indicate systematic operations persisting.

Key Factor: Regional cautious outlook from high-level visits despite Sunday’s two deaths and weekend escalation pattern.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 69/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Diplomatic Activity Amid Continuing Violations. Tripoli and surrounding areas face measured outlook from high-level visits while Sunday’s deaths continue pattern.

The region observes Ortagus, Barrack and Egyptian delegation visits as positive while Sunday’s two deaths show operations persisting.

Port operations experience cautious stabilization from diplomatic engagement and LAF plan while weekend deaths underscore fragile environment.

Cross-border dynamics face complexity from LAF’s disarmament advancement while Sunday’s deaths and intensified strikes indicate challenges persisting.

Key Factor: Regional measured outlook from diplomatic visits despite Sunday’s two deaths maintaining elevated status.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 66/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Plan Progress. The Syrian border region faces cautious outlook from LAF’s disarmament plan and diplomatic visits while processing weekend deaths.

Local communities observe high-level US/Egyptian visits with measured optimism while Sunday’s deaths demonstrate operations continuing.

Border security operations monitor LAF’s weapons removal success and diplomatic engagement as stabilizing while weekend strikes demonstrate systematic pattern.

Agricultural activities proceed with improved outlook from diplomatic efforts while Sunday’s deaths maintain elevated concerns.

Key Factor: Border area cautious improvement from diplomatic visits despite Sunday’s deaths demonstrating continuing operations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Sunday’s Nabi Sheet Death in Eastern Region. The valley faces maximum crisis from Sunday’s strike killing one in Nabi Sheet village (eastern Baalbek region) with Israeli media claiming senior Hezbollah commander targeted.

SUNDAY’S NABI SHEET STRIKE in eastern Baalbek region killed one person with Israeli media claiming senior Hezbollah commander targeted, demonstrating valley remains high-priority zone.

Agricultural activities face uncertainty from Sunday’s eastern Beqaa death and intensified recent strikes while LAF’s disarmament plan offers potential stabilization.

Local communities navigate environment where LAF advances plan but Sunday’s Nabi Sheet death shows operations persisting with high-profile targeting.

The convergence of Sunday’s Nabi Sheet death, senior commander targeting claim, intensified strikes, LAF plan, and Iran’s condemnation creates maximum crisis.

Key Factor: Valley experiencing maximum crisis from Sunday’s Nabi Sheet death and senior commander targeting in eastern Beqaa region.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Sunday’s Eastern Strike. The region faces maximum tensions from Sunday’s Nabi Sheet strike in eastern Baalbek region despite LAF’s plan progress.

The region observes its territory among Sunday’s strike targets (Nabi Sheet) demonstrating attacks continue despite LAF’s five-stage disarmament plan advancement.

Infrastructure development faces complex environment from LAF’s plan progress while Sunday’s eastern strike and senior commander targeting demonstrate continuing high-profile operations.

Cultural sites experience tension from Sunday’s regional strike while LAF’s plan and high-level diplomatic visits offer potential stabilization path.

Traditional community structures observe diplomatic engagement with cautious hope while Sunday’s death demonstrates continued high-profile operations.

Key Factor: Maximum tension from Sunday’s Nabi Sheet strike in eastern Baalbek despite LAF plan and diplomatic visits.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 63/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Diplomatic Engagement. The coastal governorate processes high-level visits and LAF plan while managing weekend deaths pattern.

Tourism activities face improved outlook from Ortagus, Barrack and Egyptian delegation visits plus LAF plan while Sunday’s deaths maintain elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from diplomatic engagement and LAF’s five-stage plan while weekend escalation demonstrates continuing challenges.

The region experiences cautious stabilization from high-level visits while Sunday’s deaths show systematic operations continuing.

Key Factor: Local cautious improvement from diplomatic visits despite Sunday’s deaths maintaining elevated status.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴
STATUS: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS – SUNDAY’S NAQOURA DEATH & SATURDAY’S TWO KILLED. The south faces ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM DANGER from Sunday’s car attack death in Naqoura, Saturday’s two deaths including Harouf strike, Aitaroun ordnance injury, and intensified recent strikes.

SUNDAY’S NAQOURA DEATH when Israeli strike targeted car in Naqoura (Tyre province) killing one demonstrates continuing car targeting pattern in south.

SATURDAY’S TWO DEATHS including Israeli drone strike on car in Harouf town killing one and wounding another plus second death, marking deadly weekend concentration.

Emergency services operate under ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to Sunday’s death, Saturday’s casualties, Aitaroun ordnance injury while processing LAF’s disarmament plan.

Civilian populations face ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from weekend deaths (Sunday Naqoura, Saturday Harouf and second strike) and intensified recent strikes pattern.

AITAROUN WAR REMNANTS injury today demonstrates continuing danger from unexploded ordnance across southern conflict zones requiring extensive clearance operations.

The combination of Sunday’s Naqoura death, Saturday’s two deaths, Harouf car strike, Aitaroun ordnance, intensified strikes, and LAF plan creates ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM danger.

Key Factor: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS from Sunday’s Naqoura death plus Saturday’s two deaths demonstrating deadly weekend escalation.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 96/100 🔴
Status: Critical – FCDO Advises Against All Travel Plus Weekend Regional Deaths. The governorate faces maximum security crisis with UK advising against all travel while weekend southern deaths affect broader region.

FCDO ADVISES AGAINST ALL TRAVEL to entire Nabatieh Governorate citing unpredictable security environment and continuing Israeli strikes.

Community services face extreme pressure from weekend southern deaths (Sunday Naqoura, Saturday Harouf and second strike) affecting broader regional security.

Medical facilities coordinate emergency response to weekend casualties while managing transition environment from LAF’s disarmament plan advancing.

Local communities experience maximum vulnerability from weekend deaths, intensified strikes pattern, and FCDO travel warnings amid LAF plan advancement.

Key Factor: Maximum vulnerability from weekend southern deaths and FCDO advising against all travel to Nabatieh governorate.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – DEADLY WEEKEND ESCALATION

🔴 CRITICAL IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS:

Sunday October 26:

1. TWO KILLED – Naqoura car strike and Nabi Sheet eastern Beqaa death
2. SENIOR COMMANDER TARGETED – Israeli media claims eastern raid targeted high-profile Hezbollah figure
3. AITAROUN ORDNANCE INJURY – War remnants wounded one person
4. IRAN CONDEMNS STRIKES – Foreign Ministry denounces “hostile” operations
5. HIGH-LEVEL VISITS SCHEDULED – Ortagus, Barrack, Egyptian delegation coming

Saturday October 25:

1. TWO KILLED – Including Harouf car drone strike
2. HAROUF STRIKE – One killed, one wounded in car attack
3. INTENSIFIED PATTERN – Several deadly attacks over recent days
4. CONTINUED VIOLATIONS – Near-daily strikes despite ceasefire
5. SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS – Concentrated particularly southern Lebanon

LAF Disarmament Plan:

1. FIVE-STAGE PROCESS – Cabinet endorsed plan to disarm Hezbollah
2. DECEMBER 2025 TARGET – LAF goal for weapons monopoly
3. CAPACITY RESTRICTIONS – May require “additional time, additional effort”
4. 10,000 ROCKETS REMOVED – LAF successfully removed massive weapons cache
5. INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT – US and others providing assistance

Diplomatic Engagement:

1. ORTAGUS VISIT – US official Morgan Ortagus scheduled
2. BARRACK VISIT – Tom Barrack diplomatic mission
3. EGYPTIAN DELEGATION – High-level Egyptian officials visiting
4. IRAN CONDEMNATION – Foreign Ministry denounces strikes
5. CONTINUING EFFORTS – Diplomatic track amid escalating violations

🔴 DEADLY WEEKEND FACTORS:

Unprecedented Escalation:

1. Sunday’s 2 Deaths – Naqoura and Nabi Sheet strikes
2. Saturday’s 2 Deaths – Including Harouf car attack
3. Senior Commander Targeted – High-profile eastern Beqaa operation
4. Intensified Strikes – Several deadly attacks recent days
5. LAF Plan Advancing – Despite continuing violations

⚠️ DEADLY WEEKEND ASSESSMENT:

• Sunday’s 2 Deaths – Naqoura and eastern Beqaa (Nabi Sheet) strikes
• Saturday’s 2 Deaths – Including Harouf car drone attack
• Senior Commander Targeted – Israeli media claims eastern raid goal
• Intensified Pattern – Several deadly attacks over recent days
• High-Level Visits – Ortagus, Barrack, Egyptian delegation scheduled

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – DEADLY WEEKEND PERIOD

🏠 RESIDENT SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS:

CRITICAL TRANSITION – WEEKEND’S 4 DEATHS & HIGH-LEVEL VISITS: Lebanon experiences critical transition with high-level US/Egyptian diplomatic visits and LAF disarmament plan advancing, while Sunday’s two deaths (Naqoura, Nabi Sheet) and Saturday’s two deaths demonstrate intensified strikes pattern over recent days.

IMMEDIATE SECURITY ACTIONS:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON EXTREME CAUTION – Sunday Naqoura death and Saturday Harouf strike
• EASTERN BEQAA MAXIMUM VIGILANCE – Sunday Nabi Sheet death, senior commander targeting
• CAR TARGETING AWARENESS – Sunday Naqoura and Saturday Harouf car attacks
• UNEXPLODED ORDNANCE DANGER – Aitaroun injury demonstrates continuing threat
• INTENSIFIED STRIKES RECOGNITION – Several deadly attacks over recent days

INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONAL VULNERABILITY: LAF’s disarmament plan advancement and diplomatic visits offer progress while weekend’s four deaths and intensified strikes demonstrate continuing operations.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATION RECOMMENDATIONS:

TRANSITION PROTOCOLS:

• SOUTHERN OPERATIONS MAXIMUM CAUTION – Sunday Naqoura and Saturday Harouf deaths
• BEQAA OPERATIONS EXTREME VIGILANCE – Sunday Nabi Sheet death, commander targeting
• VEHICLE SECURITY PROTOCOLS – Car targeting pattern (Naqoura, Harouf)
• LAF PLAN TRACKING – Five-stage disarmament process coordination
• DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS MONITORING – High-level visits coordination

🚗 TRAVEL SECURITY STATUS:

MAXIMUM CAUTION – WEEKEND’S 4 DEATHS & INTENSIFIED STRIKES: LAF’s disarmament plan and diplomatic visits demonstrate progress while weekend’s four deaths (Sunday 2, Saturday 2) require MAXIMUM CAUTION.

ABSOLUTE DANGER ZONES:

• NAQOURA AREA (TYRE) – Sunday’s car strike death site
• NABI SHEET (EASTERN BEQAA) – Sunday’s death, senior commander targeting
• HAROUF TOWN (SOUTH) – Saturday’s car drone strike death
• ENTIRE SOUTHERN LEBANON – Intensified strikes pattern recent days
• NABATIEH GOVERNORATE – FCDO advises against all travel

🔮 24-HOUR TRANSITION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 87/100
Forecast Trend: ➡️ MIXED – DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT BUT DEADLY PATTERN CONTINUING

Transition Developments Probability:

1. Continued Strikes (85% probability) – Weekend’s deadly pattern continuing
2. High-Level Visits Impact (75% probability) – Ortagus, Barrack, Egyptian delegation
3. Additional LAF Disarmament (80% probability) – Five-stage plan advancing
4. Car Targeting Pattern (70% probability) – Sunday Naqoura, Saturday Harouf precedent
5. Diplomatic Progress (70% probability) – High-level engagement efforts

Critical Monitoring Factors: High-level visits outcomes, continued strikes pattern, LAF disarmament plan implementation, car targeting continuation, senior commander targeting.

Stabilization Factors: Diplomatic visits successful, LAF plan accelerated implementation, strikes cessation, IDF withdrawal, sovereignty restoration.

📊 DEADLY WEEKEND ANALYSIS

Today’s Security Level: Critical – Weekend’s 4 Deaths Despite Diplomatic Efforts
Change from Previous Assessment: +1 point (Escalation from weekend deaths)
Crisis Trend: Deadly Weekend Escalation Amid Diplomatic Engagement
Assessment: Lebanon experiences critical crisis with Sunday’s two deaths (Naqoura car strike, Nabi Sheet eastern Beqaa with senior commander targeting claim), Saturday’s two deaths (including Harouf car drone strike), demonstrating intensified deadly pattern over recent days despite LAF disarmament plan advancing and high-level US/Egyptian diplomatic visits scheduled indicating continuing international engagement.

Strategic Deadly Weekend Analysis: Sunday October 26 Israeli strikes killed two people – one in car attack in Naqoura (Tyre province) and another in Nabi Sheet village (eastern Baalbek region), with Israeli media claiming forces targeted senior Hezbollah commander in eastern raid, demonstrating high-profile targeting amid ceasefire violations.

Saturday’s strikes killed two people and wounded another, including Israeli drone strike on car in Harouf town killing one and wounding another, marking deadly weekend escalation with four total deaths across two days.

Lebanese health ministry reported one person wounded Sunday after war remnants exploded in Aitaroun town in south, demonstrating continuing danger from unexploded ordnance across conflict zones requiring extensive clearance operations.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson denounced Sunday’s Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and Bekaa as “hostile” actions, continuing international condemnation pattern of ceasefire violations.

High-level US officials Morgan Ortagus and Tom Barrack plus Egyptian delegation scheduled to visit Lebanon, indicating continuing diplomatic efforts amid escalating violations and LAF disarmament plan implementation.

Lebanese cabinet endorsed LAF’s five-stage plan to disarm Hezbollah by December 2025 with international support, though Information Minister notes may require “additional time, additional effort” due to LAF capacity restrictions.

Israel has intensified strikes in recent weeks with several deadly attacks over past days, demonstrating escalating pattern despite November 2024 ceasefire agreement and LAF’s successful removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles.

The convergence of Sunday’s two deaths, Saturday’s two deaths, senior commander targeting, Aitaroun ordnance injury, intensified strikes pattern, high-level diplomatic visits, Iran’s condemnation, and LAF disarmament plan creates critical environment with deadly weekend escalation alongside continuing international engagement efforts.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: DEADLY WEEKEND MAXIMUM PROTOCOLS

🔴 CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT – WEEKEND’S 4 DEATHS & HIGH-LEVEL VISITS

During Lebanon’s critical transition with weekend’s four deaths, high-level diplomatic visits, and intensified strikes, CIS Security maintains maximum protocols.

TRANSITION PERIOD SERVICES:

Weekend Escalation Response:

• Sunday’s Deaths Coordination – Naqoura and Nabi Sheet casualties security
• Saturday’s Deaths Response – Harouf and second strike coordination
• Car Targeting Protocols – Vehicle security after Naqoura, Harouf strikes
• Aitaroun Ordnance – Unexploded remnants danger coordination

Diplomatic Visits Support:

• Ortagus Visit Coordination – US official security arrangements
• Barrack Visit Support – Diplomatic mission coordination
• Egyptian Delegation – High-level officials visit security
• LAF Plan Monitoring – Five-stage disarmament tracking

🔴 TRANSITION CRISIS CONTACT – MAXIMUM ALERT

EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTER: +961-3-539900
Maximum protocols for weekend’s four deaths and diplomatic visits

ESCALATION COORDINATION: Weekend’s four deaths security response
DIPLOMATIC VISITS: Ortagus, Barrack, Egyptian delegation support
INTENSIFIED STRIKES: Recent days deadly pattern tracking

During Lebanon’s transition with weekend’s four deaths and high-level visits, CIS Security provides maximum protection.

⚠️ DEADLY WEEKEND NOTICE

CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT: Lebanon experiences unprecedented deadly weekend with Sunday October 26 Israeli strikes killing two (Naqoura car attack, Nabi Sheet eastern Beqaa with senior commander targeting claim) and Saturday’s strikes killing two (including Harouf car drone attack) demonstrating intensified pattern with four total deaths across two days, while high-level US officials Ortagus and Barrack plus Egyptian delegation scheduled visits indicating continuing diplomatic engagement amid LAF disarmament plan advancing and Iran condemning “hostile” strikes requiring maximum security protocols.

Update Frequency: Real-time monitoring during deadly weekend period. Alerts: Immediate updates for casualties and diplomatic developments.

WEEKEND’S DEATHS NOTICE: Four killed across two days – Sunday’s two (Naqoura, Nabi Sheet) and Saturday’s two (including Harouf) demonstrating intensified escalation.

DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT: High-level US officials Ortagus and Barrack plus Egyptian delegation visiting amid escalation.

Professional Transition Statement: CIS Security maintains maximum capabilities during unprecedented deadly weekend with four deaths across two days, high-level diplomatic visits scheduled, and intensified strikes pattern. Our commitment to all personnel safety remains absolute during critical period with continuing escalation and international engagement.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Protection During Deadly Weekend Period”

During Lebanon’s unprecedented deadly weekend with four deaths, diplomatic visits, and intensified strikes, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years expertise.

CIS Security Deadly Weekend Period Services:

• Weekend Deaths Coordination – Four casualties security response (Sunday 2, Saturday 2)
• Diplomatic Visits Support – Ortagus, Barrack, Egyptian delegation coordination
• Car Targeting Protocols – Vehicle security after Naqoura, Harouf strikes
• Unexploded Ordnance Safety – Aitaroun injury response and clearance support
• Intensified Strikes Monitoring – Recent days deadly pattern coordination

Deadly Weekend Period Consultation: 📞 24/7 Emergency Command: +961-3-539900
💬 Maximum Transition WhatsApp: Real-time deadly weekend coordination
🌐 Emergency Website: www.cissecurity.net

During Lebanon’s critical transition with weekend’s four deaths, high-level diplomatic visits, and intensified strikes, CIS Security provides absolute maximum protection.