CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 12 2025

🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 12 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 94/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE – FRAGILE CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴
Status: Critical. The capital remains in crisis following the September 5 cabinet meeting where the Lebanese government welcomed a plan presented by the army to disarm Hezbollah, the country’s most formidable military force, in an unprecedented move that risks sparking internal conflict.

The U.S. has backed this with a $14.2 million Presidential Drawdown Authority security assistance package for Lebanon announced on September 10 aimed at building the capability and capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces to dismantle weapons caches. The electricity crisis continues with Lebanese authorities having failed to provide reliable and sustainable access to electricity following decades of mismanaging the sector.
Key Factor: Political tensions over disarmament plan with new U.S. military aid package intensifying pressure.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical. Civil unrest continues with ongoing protests against the disarmament plan. The governorate faces severe economic distress compounded by the ongoing electricity crisis. Sectarian tensions remain elevated as various political factions position themselves regarding Hezbollah’s disarmament.
Key Factor: Rising sectarian tensions over government’s unprecedented disarmament initiative.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical. Tripoli remains volatile with severe economic distress. The electricity infrastructure continues to fail with minimal state provision. Sectarian tensions are heightened following the government’s disarmament announcement, with various factions mobilizing.
Key Factor: Economic collapse intersecting with political instability over disarmament debate.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical. The Syrian border situation remains tense with Syrian forces arresting a Hezbollah cell, indicating cross-border security challenges. The LAF struggles with limited resources despite the new U.S. aid package. Border monitoring remains compromised due to infrastructure failures.
Key Factor: Cross-border tensions with Syria amid Hezbollah cell arrests and LAF resource constraints.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 95/100 🔴
Status: Critical. As a Hezbollah stronghold, the region is on highest alert following ongoing IDF operations against Hezbollah’s presence in south Lebanon, which violates the ceasefire agreement understandings. The area experienced Israeli strikes on the Bekaa that led to five dead and five others wounded on September 8. Agricultural operations continue to be disrupted.
Key Factor: Active Israeli strikes causing casualties in violation of ceasefire agreements.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 96/100 🔴
Status: Critical. This Hezbollah stronghold saw Israeli airstrikes on September 8 killing five people, including four Hezbollah members. The region remains the epicenter of resistance to disarmament as global pressure mounts to disarm the Lebanese militant group. Israeli surveillance and strike operations continue despite ceasefire.
Key Factor: Active combat zone with confirmed Hezbollah casualties from Israeli strikes.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 72/100 🟡
Status: Elevated. While avoiding direct combat, the area faces spillover effects from regional tensions. The electricity crisis severely impacts tourism and the service sector. Small solidarity protests continue following recent government decisions on disarmament.
Key Factor: Economic strain from infrastructure collapse affecting stability.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Violations Zone. IDF forces continue attacking Hezbollah facilities as part of ongoing operations against Hezbollah’s presence in south Lebanon. The situation remains extremely volatile with continued ceasefire violations. UNIFIL peacekeeping forces face ongoing challenges maintaining stability.
Key Factor: Continuous Israeli military operations violating ceasefire understandings.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Violations Zone. The governorate continues experiencing Israeli military operations with recent strikes causing casualties. Infrastructure remains devastated with no reliable electricity supply. The population faces daily security threats.
Key Factor: Ongoing Israeli strikes and complete infrastructure collapse.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

• Location 1: Baalbek-Hermel – Four Hezbollah members killed in September 8 Israeli strikes
• Location 2: Beqaa Valley – Five killed, five wounded in recent Israeli operations
• Location 3: South Lebanon border – Ongoing IDF operations violating ceasefire
• Location 4: Syrian-Lebanese border – Hezbollah cell arrests increasing tensions
• Location 5: Beirut government district – U.S. military aid announcement escalating pressure
• Location 6: All Hezbollah strongholds – Resistance to disarmament plan mounting

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

• Area 1: Coastal Jbeil and Batroun – Caveat: Infrastructure collapse affecting all areas
• Area 2: Central Mount Lebanon residential zones – Caveat: Rising sectarian tensions
• Area 3: Northern Metn – Caveat: Electricity crisis causing social instability

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. Multiple governments maintain highest-level travel warnings.

• ALL areas of South Lebanon, Nabatieh, and border regions
• Baalbek-Hermel (recent combat casualties)
• Beqaa Valley (active Israeli operations)
• Any protests regarding disarmament plan
• Government buildings and diplomatic missions
• Areas near critical infrastructure

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

The combination of ceasefire violations, political deadlock over disarmament, and infrastructure collapse creates extreme danger. With only about 20 percent of the population having access to any form of social security, prepare for self-sufficiency.

Immediate Actions:

• Secure alternative power sources (generators, solar, batteries)
• Maintain 3-week emergency supplies including fuel
• Keep multiple charged power banks for communications
• Store water as pumping stations fail during blackouts
• Have substantial cash reserves – ATMs non-functional without power
• Plan for medical emergencies with hospitals on limited power
• Document multiple evacuation routes

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

Critical infrastructure failure and security deterioration require immediate contingency activation.

Critical Steps:

• Transition to generator power or suspend operations
• Secure fuel supplies for minimum 30-day operations
• Implement paper-based backup systems
• Protect temperature-sensitive inventory
• Review insurance coverage for conflict-related damages
• Consider temporary relocation of critical functions
• Enhance security measures against potential unrest

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The situation features:

• Active military operations with recent casualties
• Complete electricity grid failure
• Political crisis over unprecedented disarmament plan
• Ceasefire violations continuing
• No reliable emergency services

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 95/100
Forecast Trend: ⚡ CRITICAL – POTENTIAL ESCALATION
Expected Factors:

• Possible Hezbollah response to government disarmament pressure
• Potential Israeli strikes following recent operations
• U.S. military aid implementation triggering reactions
• Electricity crisis potentially sparking civil unrest
• Cross-border tensions with Syria escalating
• Weekend protests likely against disarmament plan

Preparation Recommendation: Expect volatile reactions to U.S.-backed disarmament initiative. The convergence of military violations, political pressure, and infrastructure collapse creates conditions for rapid deterioration.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

This Week’s Average: 93/100
Change from Last Week: +2 points (Deterioration from Israeli strikes and disarmament tensions)
Monthly Trend: Critical Instability
Seasonal Assessment: Lebanon faces an unprecedented convergence of crises. Israeli military operations killed multiple Hezbollah members on September 8 despite ceasefire agreements. The government’s disarmament plan, backed by new U.S. military aid, risks internal conflict. The electricity crisis has created a humanitarian emergency with most of the population lacking basic services. The combination of external military pressure, internal political crisis, and infrastructure collapse threatens state stability.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: LEBANON’S PREMIER SECURITY SOLUTIONS

Since 1990, CIS Security has protected Lebanon through its darkest hours. Today, as the nation faces ceasefire violations, disarmament tensions, and infrastructure collapse, our experience becomes your lifeline.

CRITICAL PERIOD SERVICES:

Ceasefire Violation Response

• Real-time threat monitoring of military operations
• Fortified safe rooms and shelters
• Combat-experienced personnel
• Emergency medical response teams

Political Crisis Management

• Protest monitoring and avoidance planning
• Secure transportation services
• Diplomatic liaison capabilities
• Intelligence gathering on factional movements

Infrastructure Failure Solutions

• Generator-powered security operations
• Solar backup systems for critical needs
• Independent communication networks
• Water and food security protocols

Evacuation Services

• Pre-positioned extraction teams
• Multiple evacuation route planning
• Cross-border coordination
• 24/7 crisis response capability

Your security cannot wait for political solutions.

IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY RESPONSE

📞 Crisis Hotline: +961-3-539900
🌐 Website: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Emergency: info@cissecurity.net
📍 Offices: Operational despite crisis across all governorates

When ceasefires fail and governments falter, CIS Security stands guard.

CRITICAL ALERT: This assessment reflects conditions as of September 12, 2025. The situation features active ceasefire violations with recent casualties, an unprecedented disarmament initiative backed by U.S. military aid, and continuing infrastructure collapse. Immediate protective measures are essential.