CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 22 2025
CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 22 2025
📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING
INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 79/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ EXTREME DANGER – CIVILIAN FAMILIES TARGETED
🚨 BREAKING: SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 22 DEVELOPMENTS
DEADLY WEEKEND STRIKES:
- BINT JBEIL FAMILY MASSACRE: Israeli drone strike killed 5 people, including 3 children from same family
- Victims: Father Shadi Sharara and children Celine, Hadi, and Aseel; mother critically injured
- Disputed citizenship: Lebanese officials claimed US citizenship, but US State Department disputes this
- IDF acknowledgment: Israeli military admitted “several uninvolved civilians were killed” while targeting Hezbollah operative
- Investigation launched: IDF stated incident “under review”
ESCALATING PATTERN – PAST WEEK:
- September 21: Bint Jbeil family attack – 5 killed including 3 children
- September 20: Khardali strike killed Hezbollah operative conducting surveillance
- September 19: Two Hezbollah operatives killed – one near Ansar, one at Tebnine hospital
- September 18: Multiple strikes on Radwan Force weapons depots in southern villages
US PRESSURE INTENSIFYING:
- One-month deadline issued to Lebanon on weapons disarmament
- Sources warn of “broad aerial attack” if Lebanon fails to comply
- US Envoy arriving: Morgan Ortagus scheduled to arrive Sunday for diplomatic pressure
PRESIDENT AOUN AT UN:
- President Joseph Aoun in New York for UN General Assembly
- Denounced latest attack as “massacre” and called for international pressure on Israel
- Alongside PM Nawaf Salam, endorsed agreement for gradual Hezbollah disarmament
🌡️ REAL-TIME GOVERNORATE SECURITY STATUS
BEIRUT 🏙️
Index Reading: 72/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Political Crisis Deepening
Capital experiencing heightened tensions as US issues one-month deadline for weapons disarmament. President Aoun at UN attempting damage control while threat of “broad aerial attack” looms if compliance fails.
Economic indicators show fragile stability: Exchange rate at 89,580 LBP/USD and inflation moderated to 14.30% in July. GDP projected to grow 4.7% in 2025 but cumulative decline since 2019 reaches 40%.
Political dynamics volatile with international pressure mounting on disarmament while Israeli strikes continue targeting civilians.
Key Factor: Government credibility under extreme pressure.
MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️
Index Reading: 58/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Economic Pressure
Region avoiding direct strikes but economic recovery remains fragile with tourism and investment limited. Banking sector struggling despite new leadership appointments.
Infrastructure marginally better than national average but strain from displaced populations continues.
Key Factor: Economic hub status threatened by national instability.
NORTH LEBANON 🌊
Index Reading: 63/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Security Operations
Tripoli maintaining relative calm. Military operations continue against drug networks. Border security with Syria remains priority amid regional instability.
Key Factor: Drug trafficking vs poverty pressures ongoing.
AKKAR 🌲
Index Reading: 66/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Border Security
Syrian border situation stable but requires constant monitoring. Cross-border movement controlled but smuggling networks active.
Key Factor: Border integrity vs economic necessity.
BEQAA VALLEY 🍇
Index Reading: 83/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Strike Zone
Israeli air strikes in July killed 12 people including 5 Hezbollah fighters in eastern Lebanon. Infrastructure remains severely damaged with limited reconstruction progress.
Key Factor: Strategic corridor under continued threat.
BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌
Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Military Operations
Ongoing Israeli targeting of alleged Hezbollah infrastructure. Population displacement continues with minimal services restoration.
Key Factor: Active military zone with humanitarian crisis.
KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️
Index Reading: 53/100 🟡
Status: Moderate – Refugee Strain
Best security conditions but overwhelmed by displaced populations. Tourism operating at minimal capacity despite relative stability.
Key Factor: Safe haven creating resource crisis.
SOUTH LEBANON 🌴
Index Reading: 94/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – ACTIVE KILLING ZONE
TODAY’S REALITY: 5 civilians killed including 3 children in family targeted by Israeli drone. Israel continues daily strikes despite ceasefire agreement.
Israel still occupies five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon. Over 500 Israeli airstrikes since ceasefire began with over 300 operatives killed according to IDF claims.
Key Factor: Civilian families now primary targets.
NABATIEH ⛪
Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Systematic Destruction
Continued strikes on alleged Hezbollah Radwan Force infrastructure. Massive infrastructure damage prevents population return.
Key Factor: Ethnic cleansing through systematic destruction.
🎯 IMMEDIATE DANGER ALERTS – SEPTEMBER 22
🔥 ACTIVE KILL ZONES NOW:
EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY:
- ALL SOUTHERN LEBANON – Families with children primary targets
- BINT JBEIL – Recent family massacre site
- Hospital areas – Medical facilities targeted
- Vehicle travel – Motorcycles and cars being struck
- Border villages – Daily strike zones
EXTREME DANGER TODAY:
- Any family vehicle in south
- Children in cars or motorcycles
- Medical facilities and staff
- Water and infrastructure workers
- Anyone suspected of Hezbollah ties
⚠️ INCIDENTS LAST 48 HOURS:
September 21 (SUNDAY):
- 0900: Bint Jbeil drone strike kills family of 5
- 1000: Mother critically injured, children dead
- 1100: UNICEF condemns killing of children
- Evening: IDF confirms targeting but admits civilian deaths
September 20 (SATURDAY):
- Khardali area strike kills surveillance operative
- Multiple reconnaissance missions by Israeli forces
📱 CRITICAL SAFETY INSTRUCTIONS – SUNDAY
🏠 RESIDENTS – IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:
SOUTHERN LEBANON – LETHAL ZONE:
- NO family vehicle movement
- Children NEVER in cars/motorcycles
- Avoid ALL suspected Hezbollah areas
- Stay away from military-age males
- Underground shelter mandatory
BEIRUT – BRACE FOR CHAOS:
- US deadline creates pressure cooker
- Stock 3-week supplies immediately
- Secure $3000 cash minimum
- Prepare for civil unrest
- Monitor government collapse signals
FAMILY PROTECTION PRIORITY:
- Keep children away from vehicles
- Document family locations constantly
- Prepare trauma response plans
- Know medical evacuation routes
- Have multiple safe house options
🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS – CRITICAL:
IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENTS:
- Southern operations TERMINATE now
- All personnel evacuate families first
- Activate crisis protocols
- Document all losses for insurance
- Prepare for extended closure
ECONOMIC REALITY:
- Exchange: 89,580 LBP/USD (stable)
- Inflation: 14.3% (moderating)
- GDP decline: 40% since 2019
- Banking: Severe restrictions continue
- Investment: International confidence collapsing
🚗 MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS – LIVE:
ABSOLUTELY FORBIDDEN:
- Southern Lebanon family travel
- Children in any vehicles south
- Medical facility approaches
- Suspected Hezbollah areas
- Border zone movement
EXTREME CAUTION:
- Beirut during US envoy visit
- All checkpoints – massive delays
- Fuel stations – growing shortages
- Government buildings
🔮 24-72 HOUR FORECAST
Predicted Index: 82-87/100
Trend: ⬆️ CATASTROPHIC ESCALATION IMMINENT
Critical Developments Expected:
- US ultimatum confrontation – Morgan Ortagus arrival for pressure talks
- More family massacres – Pattern established
- Mass civilian evacuation – International warnings
- Government collapse risk – Unable to protect citizens
- Regional intervention – Humanitarian catastrophe triggers
Major Risks This Week:
- Mass casualty family attacks
- Complete civilian flight from south
- Government collapse under pressure
- International intervention discussions
- Civil war potential
📊 GROUND TRUTH ANALYSIS
Military Reality:
- Ceasefire meaningless: Over 500 Israeli strikes since November
- Civilian targeting: Families with children now primary targets
- 5 positions occupied: Israel refuses withdrawal from strategic hilltops
- Army powerless: Lebanese army warns strikes hampering deployment
- UN ineffective: Peacekeepers unable to prevent attacks
Political Crisis:
- US ultimatum: One month to disarm or face “broad aerial attack”
- Presidential travel: Aoun at UN during family massacre
- Hezbollah defiant: Refuses disarmament while strikes continue
- Government split: Unable to implement disarmament plan
- International pressure: Saudi-Iran mediation attempts
Economic Devastation:
- Currency stable: 89,580 LBP/USD holding
- Inflation declining: 14.3% down from 221% peak
- GDP collapsed: 40% decline since crisis began
- Reconstruction impossible: Security prevents rebuilding
- Investment flight: International confidence shattered
Humanitarian Emergency:
- Children targeted: 3 children killed in single family attack
- Mass displacement: 100,000+ unable to return south
- Healthcare collapsed: Medical facilities under attack
- Education destroyed: Schools non-functional in south
- Infrastructure gone: Systematic destruction continues
🛡️ KEEP SAFE: SURVIVING IN DANGER ZONES
MAXIMUM PROTECTION PROTOCOLS FOR HIGH-RISK AREAS
With civilians becoming primary targets in active combat zones, Keep Safe provides essential survival guidance and protection services:
TODAY’S EMERGENCY SERVICES:
Family Protection Specialists:
- Child evacuation coordination
- Family convoy security guidance
- Safe house network access
- International extraction assistance
- Trauma response support
Threat Assessment Operations:
- Drone activity monitoring
- Strike pattern analysis
- Safe route identification
- Early warning systems
- Communication security
Medical Emergency Response:
- Trauma medical teams
- Family casualty assistance
- Critical care coordination
- Cross-border medical access
- Emergency psychological support
Crisis Evacuation Support:
- Secure transport coordination
- Airport security liaison
- Embassy contact facilitation
- Safe country coordination
- Emergency documentation assistance
SPECIALIZED DANGER ZONE PROTECTION:
Child Safety Protocols:
- Family protection coordination
- Home security assessment
- Safe area identification
- 24/7 monitoring support
- Emergency response planning
Transport Security:
- Armored vehicle access
- Route security planning
- Convoy coordination
- Emergency medical support
- Communication backup systems
🚨 DANGER ZONE EMERGENCY HOTLINE
CRISIS SUPPORT LINE: +961-3-539900
Protecting families in high-risk zones
WhatsApp: Real-time security updates GPS Coordination: Family location assistance Safe Zones: Secure location guidance
Emergency Response Capability:
- Immediate threat assessment
- Family extraction coordination: 10 minutes
- Medical emergency response
- International placement assistance: 48 hours
When danger zones threaten families, Keep Safe provides the lifeline.
ICAL ALERT – SEPTEMBER 21, 2025
LEBANON: CEASEFIRE FICTION – ACTIVE WAR REALITY
THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE:
- 4,500 Israeli violations documented
- 500+ airstrikes during “ceasefire”
- 300+ killed in operations
- 83+ civilians dead including children
- 13+ months without reliable power
- 2-3 hours electricity daily
THIS WEEKEND’S RISKS:
- Historical escalation pattern for Fridays-Sundays
- Yesterday’s strikes likely to see follow-up
- Hezbollah restraint at breaking point
- Infrastructure cannot deteriorate much further
- Mass casualty event increasingly probable
SURVIVAL PRIORITIES:
- Avoid ALL conflict zones this weekend
- Secure 72-hour supplies immediately
- Fuel vehicles and generators TODAY
- Update evacuation plans for family
- Monitor news constantly for strikes
- Keep emergency bags at all exits
THIS IS NOT POST-WAR – THIS IS ACTIVE CONFLICT
🔍 CIS SECURITY LEBANON – WHEN THE STATE FAILS
Protecting Lebanon Since 1990 – Through Every Catastrophe
When others evacuate, we deploy. When infrastructure collapses, we maintain capability. When the world watches, we act.
Our Unique Position: ✅ Only firm operating despite 13-month blackout
✅ Access to all areas including strike zones
✅ International extraction partnerships active
✅ Medical teams with combat experience
✅ Intelligence network functioning nationwide
✅ Generator-independent indefinitely
Our Promise: Your security doesn’t depend on failed ceasefires or collapsed infrastructure.
🔍 KEEP SAFE LEBANON – PROTECTING FAMILIES IN CRISIS ZONES
35 Years of Survival Expertise in Lebanon’s Most Dangerous Areas
Today’s family targeting proves nowhere is truly safe. While governments fail to protect their citizens, Keep Safe provides the knowledge and resources families need to survive in active danger zones.
Why Keep Safe When Lives Are At Risk: ✓ Specialized danger zone survival protocols ✓ Family emergency response coordination ✓ International evacuation assistance networks ✓ 35-year track record in Lebanese crisis zones ✓ Direct diplomatic and medical channels ✓ Child protection and trauma specialists
Our Mission: No family left defenseless in danger zones.
📞 Emergency: +961-3-539900
💬 WhatsApp: 24/7 monitored
🌐 Portal: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Crisis: info@cissecurity.net
When danger zones threaten families, Keep Safe provides the survival edge.
