CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Sept 26, 2025

CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Sept 26 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 79/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ HIGH ALERT – POLITICAL DEFIANCE, STRIKES CONTINUE

🚨 BREAKING: FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 26 DEVELOPMENTS

HEZBOLLAH DEFIANCE ESCALATES:

• RAOUCHE ROCK LIGHT SHOW: Hezbollah defied Prime Minister’s explicit ban and projected memorial images onto Beirut’s iconic Raouche sea rock early this morning .
• Message: Honoring fallen leaders killed in the September 2024 pager and walkie-talkie attacks, signaling continued resistance and rejection of state authority .

INTERNAL HEZBOLLAH DIVISIONS EMERGE:

• Reports confirm growing internal rifts within Hezbollah over how to respond to the Lebanese state’s formal disarmament plan .
• Factions are split between those favoring political negotiation and hardliners advocating for armed resistance against any disarmament attempt.

US ENVOY PRESSURE INTENSIFIES:

• Morgan Ortagus concluded a series of high-stakes, low-profile meetings with the Cease-fire Monitoring Committee and Lebanese leadership this week [[38], [45]].
• The US is demanding “swift and concrete action” on the army’s disarmament mandate, with a de facto one-month deadline to show progress before potential escalation .

ISRAELI OPERATIONS PERSIST:

• Despite the November 2024 ceasefire, Israeli forces continue daily operations. Between September 15-21 alone, 11 individuals were killed, including 7 Hezbollah operatives .
• The Israeli military has systematically destroyed an estimated 1,000 buildings in southern Lebanon since September 26, 2024, often using manual demolition [[1], [35]].

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE:

• The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Lebanon on September 25, 2025, in response to the deteriorating situation .
• Two UNRWA clinics, one in Burj Shemali (south) and one in Burj Hamoud (Beirut), were temporarily closed today due to the security situation .

🌡️ REAL-TIME GOVERNORATE SECURITY STATUS

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 72/100 🟠
Status: High Alert – Defiant Symbolism

The capital is tense following Hezbollah’s early-morning light show at Raouche Rock, a direct challenge to the Prime Minister’s authority . This act of political theater has inflamed sectarian tensions and is seen as a prelude to larger confrontations over the disarmament plan. The US envoy’s recent visit has left a palpable sense of an impending deadline.

Economic indicators remain stable but fragile. The Lebanese pound held steady at 89,550 LBP/USD on September 25 .

Key Factor: State authority is being openly tested by Hezbollah.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 58/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Spillover Risk

The region remains a relative economic and security haven, but the political crisis in Beirut is causing ripple effects. The presence of displaced persons from the south is straining local resources. The recent US security assistance package for Lebanon, announced on September 26, includes naval exercises that may indirectly impact coastal areas of this governorate .

Key Factor: Safe haven status is its primary vulnerability.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 63/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Camp Tensions

Security in Palestinian refugee camps like al-Badawi remains tense following the Lebanese Army’s entry earlier in the month . While major drug busts have provided temporary relief, the overarching national crisis is a constant destabilizing factor. Poverty-driven desperation remains a key driver of local crime.

Key Factor: Army operations in camps create a fragile, temporary calm.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 66/100 🟡
Status: Elevated – Border Fragility

The Syrian border remains technically stable, but the internal divisions within Hezbollah could lead to a shift in smuggling routes and tactics, impacting this governorate. The local economy’s dependence on informal trade makes it highly sensitive to any change in the security calculus of armed groups.

Key Factor: A Hezbollah fracture could re-route illicit economies.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Strategic Targeting

This corridor remains a primary focus for Israeli intelligence and strikes. The systematic destruction of infrastructure continues, with humanitarian access becoming increasingly difficult. The area is a key logistics and transit zone for Hezbollah, making it a persistent flashpoint.

Key Factor: Remains the logistical backbone of the conflict.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Command & Control

As a historic stronghold and command center for Hezbollah, this area faces relentless pressure. The reported internal divisions within the group may be most visible here, where loyalty to the old guard is strongest. The infrastructure is non-functional, and the civilian population is almost entirely dependent on aid.

Key Factor: The heart of Hezbollah’s military apparatus.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 53/100 🟡
Status: Moderate – Strained Sanctuary

This governorate continues to serve as the primary safe haven for the displaced and the elite. However, the influx is overwhelming local services and creating social friction. Its relative stability is now its greatest liability, as it becomes a focal point for resource competition.

Key Factor: Sanctuary status is creating a slow-burn social crisis.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴
Status: CRITICAL – SYSTEMATIC DESTRUCTION

The situation here is catastrophic. The Israeli military’s campaign of building demolitions has rendered entire towns like Kfar Kila uninhabitable long after the official ceasefire . The targeting of civilian infrastructure, including water and medical facilities, continues to create a humanitarian disaster. The presence of 5,000+ documented ceasefire violations since November underscores the complete collapse of the agreement on the ground .

Key Factor: An active, post-ceasefire war of attrition against civilian life.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Frontline Devastation

This governorate has borne the brunt of the conflict. With over 27% of buildings in some districts destroyed and a near-total collapse of healthcare and education, it is a zone of pure survival. The systematic nature of the destruction points to a strategy of making return impossible for the displaced population.

Key Factor: The epicenter of the humanitarian catastrophe.

🎯 IMMEDIATE DANGER ALERTS – SEPTEMBER 26

🔥 ACTIVE KILL ZONES NOW:

EXTREME CAUTION:

1. ALL OF SOUTHERN LEBANON – Active demolitions and drone surveillance.
2. BEIRUT COASTAL AREAS – Potential for retaliatory strikes or protests following Raouche incident.
3. HEZBOLLAH STRONGHOLDS in Dahieh, Baalbek, and the Beqaa – High risk of targeted operations.
4. LEBANESE ARMY CHECKPOINTS – Potential flashpoints for confrontation with armed groups.

MONITOR CLOSELY:

• Political rallies or gatherings in Beirut.
• Any movement near the Litani River.
• Border areas with Syria.

⚠️ INCIDENTS LAST 24 HOURS:

September 26 (TODAY):

• Pre-dawn: Hezbollah Raouche Rock light show defies PM ban .
• Morning: Two UNRWA clinics closed due to security concerns .
• Ongoing: UN Security Council emergency session on Lebanon concluded .

September 25:

• Evening: US Security Council emergency meeting called.
• Day: Continued reports of Hezbollah internal divisions over disarmament [[6], [33]].

📱 CRITICAL SAFETY INSTRUCTIONS – FRIDAY

🏠 RESIDENTS – IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:

NATIONWIDE – POLITICAL UNREST:

• Avoid all political gatherings, especially in Beirut.
• Monitor news from credible sources only; disinformation is rampant.
• Hezbollah’s defiance is a major escalation; prepare for a potential security crackdown or armed response.

SOUTHERN LEBANON – EXTREME DANGER:

• Assume all infrastructure is a potential target.
• Do not return to evacuated villages; the area is actively being demolished.
• Maintain constant communication with family and emergency contacts.

ESSENTIAL PREPARATIONS:

• Review and update your emergency go-bag.
• Ensure you have at least one month of essential medications.
• Have multiple forms of ID and critical documents ready for a potential rapid departure.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS – CRITICAL:

IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENTS:

• Activate business continuity plans for a potential nationwide strike or unrest.
• Southern Lebanon operations must remain suspended.
• Secure all physical assets in Beirut against potential civil disturbance.

ECONOMIC REALITY TODAY:

• Exchange: Stable at 89,550 LBP/USD .
• Inflation: Remains in a holding pattern but is highly vulnerable to a security shock.
• Power: Unreliable nationwide; maintain backup power solutions.

🚗 MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS – LIVE:

EXTREME CAUTION:

• Beirut: Avoid the Raouche area and all major squares.
• South: Travel is effectively prohibited for civilians.
• All Checkpoints: Expect significant delays and heightened scrutiny.

🔮 24-72 HOUR FORECAST

Predicted Index: 80-85/100
Trend: ⬆️ IMMINENT ESCALATION

Critical Developments Expected:

1. Government Response: The Lebanese state must respond to Hezbollah’s public defiance, creating a high risk of a direct confrontation.
2. Hezbollah Fracture: Internal divisions may become public, leading to unpredictable actions from various factions.
3. Israeli Reaction: The Raouche display could be used as justification for a new wave of strikes on symbolic or strategic targets in Beirut.
4. US Ultimatum: The one-month deadline from the US will become a central, public pressure point, forcing all actors to choose sides.

Major Risks Weekend:

• A direct clash between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah elements.
• A major Israeli strike inside the Beirut metropolitan area.
• A complete collapse of the already-fragile ceasefire mechanism.
• A mass exodus from Beirut to the mountains if the capital becomes a target.

The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ represents Lebanon’s first comprehensive daily security assessment system, providing real-time threat analysis across all nine governorates. Our proprietary 0-100 security rating scale combines 35+ years of operational expertise with advanced intelligence gathering to deliver accurate, actionable security insights for Lebanese residents, businesses, and international organizations. Updated daily at 8:00 AM, this revolutionary security intelligence platform has become the trusted source for security decision-making throughout Lebanon.