CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Dec 08 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🟠 ELEVATED – POST-NAQOURA TALKS & CONTINUED STRIKES PATTERN
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 82/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ➡️ CAUTIOUS STABILITY – DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS AMID CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS

🚨 BREAKING: MONDAY DECEMBER 8 – FOUR DAYS POST-HISTORIC NAQOURA TALKS

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

HISTORIC NAQOURA TALKS BREAKTHROUGH (DECEMBER 3): Lebanese and Israeli civilian representatives held first direct talks in decades at UN peacekeeping headquarters in Naqoura with US Special Representative Morgan Ortagus present – Lebanon sent former ambassador Simon Karam while Israel sent Uri Resnick of National Security Council.

THURSDAY’S STRIKES FOLLOWED TALKS: December 4 Israeli air force struck multiple southern Lebanon towns (Jbaa, Mahrouna, Mjadel, Baraachit) less than 24 hours after diplomatic breakthrough, targeting alleged Hezbollah weapons depots with evacuation warnings issued.

5,198 ISRAELI VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTED BY LAF: Lebanese army officials documented 5,198 Israeli ceasefire violations including 657 air strikes by end of November – Israel maintains strikes target Hezbollah infrastructure preventing military capacity rebuilding.

127 CIVILIANS KILLED SINCE NOVEMBER 2024 CEASEFIRE: UN Human Rights Office reports approximately 127 Lebanese civilians killed in Israeli operations since November 27, 2024 ceasefire, with strikes hitting homes, vehicles, and civilian objects across southern villages.

LAF DISARMAMENT PROGRESS ADVANCING: Lebanese Armed Forces deployed nearly 10,000 troops in southern Lebanon, dismantled 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, 58 missiles since September – LAF officials report swifter progress monthly with aim to clear all arms by year-end.

UNIFIL MANDATE ENDING DECEMBER 2026: UN peacekeeping mission will cease operations December 31, 2026, then withdraw 10,800 personnel over following year in consultation with Lebanese government – Security Council voted unanimously August 2025 for final mandate extension.

POPE LEO XIV VISIT SUCCESS (DEC 1-2): Historic papal visit concluded with 150,000-person mass at Beirut Waterfront and Golden Rose presentation to Harissa shrine – pontiff emphasized interfaith dialogue and youth hope despite economic crisis.

ISRAEL OCCUPIES 5 POSITIONS IN LEBANON: Israeli forces continue maintaining five strategic positions north of Blue Line despite ceasefire requiring full withdrawal – IDF conducts military activities including mortar fire in violation of agreement terms.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 74/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Diplomatic Progress Post-Papal Visit. The capital coordinates environment as historic Naqoura talks represent breakthrough while LAF advances disarmament and 5,198 violations demonstrate continuing challenges.

Government facilities manage complex transition with President Aoun facilitating diplomatic progress (December 3 Naqoura talks) while coordinating LAF operations (10,000 troops deployed south) and responding to 5,198 documented violations.

The combination of historic Naqoura civilian talks, successful papal visit (150,000-person mass), LAF disarmament progress, and 5,198 violations creates cautiously optimistic environment.

Economic activities experience measured improvement from diplomatic breakthrough and papal visit success while 127 civilian deaths since ceasefire demonstrate continuing security challenges.

Security coordination advances with LAF plan while managing post-Naqoura talks environment and Thursday’s southern strikes following diplomatic breakthrough.

Key Factor: Capital coordinating historic diplomatic breakthrough (December 3 Naqoura talks) and LAF’s 10,000 troops deployment despite 5,198 violations and 127 civilian deaths.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 58/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Post-Papal Visit Momentum. The governorate observes diplomatic progress while processing LAF advancement and continuing violations pattern.

Tourism sector experiences cautious improvement from successful papal visit (150,000-person mass) and historic Naqoura talks while 5,198 violations maintain elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from diplomatic breakthrough (first direct talks in decades) and LAF progress while 127 civilian deaths demonstrate systematic challenges.

Regional communities observe historic Naqoura talks with hope while Thursday’s southern strikes following diplomatic meeting indicate operations persisting.

Key Factor: Regional cautious optimism from December 3 Naqoura breakthrough and papal visit success despite 5,198 violations pattern.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 64/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Diplomatic Progress Environment. Tripoli and surrounding areas face measured improvement from Naqoura talks while LAF advancement continues.

The region observes historic diplomatic breakthrough (December 3 civilian talks) and LAF’s 10,000 troops deployment as stabilizing while 5,198 violations show systematic pattern.

Port operations experience cautious stabilization from diplomatic progress and LAF advancement while 127 civilian deaths since ceasefire underscore fragile situation.

Cross-border dynamics face complexity from Naqoura talks breakthrough while Thursday’s strikes and 5,198 violations indicate challenges persisting.

Key Factor: Regional measured improvement from historic Naqoura talks and LAF progress while 5,198 violations maintain elevated status.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 61/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Regional Stability Context. The Syrian border region faces cautious outlook from diplomatic progress while processing continuing violations pattern.

Local communities observe Naqoura breakthrough and LAF advancement with measured optimism while 5,198 violations demonstrate systematic operations.

Border security operations monitor LAF’s disarmament success (74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers dismantled) as stabilizing while 127 civilian deaths show challenges.

Agricultural activities proceed with improved outlook from diplomatic progress while Thursday’s southern strikes maintain elevated concerns.

Key Factor: Border area cautious improvement from Naqoura talks and LAF disarmament despite 5,198 violations pattern.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 79/100 🟠
Status: Elevated – Among 5,198 Violations Zones. The valley faces elevated crisis as strikes include Beqaa targets within systematic violations pattern.

Israeli operations have targeted valley locations as part of 5,198 total violations demonstrating region remains active zone despite LAF disarmament progress.

Agricultural activities face uncertainty from being among systematic strike zones while LAF’s weapons removal offers potential stabilization path.

Local communities navigate environment where LAF dismantles infrastructure but 127 civilian deaths since ceasefire show operations persisting.

The combination of diplomatic breakthrough, LAF progress, 5,198 violations pattern, and 127 civilian deaths creates complex transitional environment.

Key Factor: Valley experiencing elevated status from being among 5,198 violations zones despite LAF disarmament progress and diplomatic breakthrough.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 78/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Regional Strike Pattern. The region faces elevated tensions from being among systematic strike zones within 5,198 violations pattern.

The region observes its territory among violations zones demonstrating attacks continue despite LAF’s disarmament success (74 tunnels, 175 launchers dismantled).

Infrastructure development faces complex environment from LAF advancement while 5,198 violations and 127 civilian deaths demonstrate continuing operations.

Cultural sites experience measured stability from diplomatic progress while regional targeting within violations pattern maintains elevated concerns.

Traditional community structures observe LAF advancement with cautious hope while 5,198 violations demonstrate continued operations during transition.

Key Factor: Elevated tension from being among systematic strike zones despite LAF disarmament plan advancement and Naqoura talks breakthrough.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 59/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Papal Visit Success and Diplomatic Progress. The coastal governorate processes historic developments while managing continuing violations pattern.

Tourism activities face improved outlook from successful papal visit (Golden Rose to Harissa) and Naqoura diplomatic breakthrough while 5,198 violations maintain concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from historic civilian talks and LAF progress (10,000 troops deployed) while 127 civilian deaths demonstrate challenges.

The region experiences cautious stabilization from diplomatic breakthrough and papal visit success while systematic violations show operations continuing.

Key Factor: Local cautious improvement from Naqoura talks and papal visit success despite 5,198 violations maintaining elevated status.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
STATUS: CRITICAL – THURSDAY’S STRIKES AFTER NAQOURA TALKS & 5,198 VIOLATIONS. The south faces CRITICAL DANGER from Thursday December 4 strikes (Jbaa, Mahrouna, Mjadel, Baraachit) following historic Naqoura talks plus 5,198 documented violations pattern.

THURSDAY’S STRIKES ON FOUR TOWNS less than 24 hours after December 3 diplomatic breakthrough demonstrated Israel’s position that “negotiations will be held under fire” per reports.

JBAA RESIDENTIAL AREA DESTROYED in densely populated neighborhood causing extensive damage to nearby structures demonstrating civilian infrastructure vulnerability.

Emergency services operate under CRITICAL THREAT coordinating response to Thursday’s four-town strikes, 5,198 documented violations, 127 civilian deaths while processing LAF’s 10,000 troops deployment.

Civilian populations face CRITICAL VULNERABILITY from Thursday’s strikes following diplomatic talks, 5,198 systematic violations, and 127 deaths since ceasefire.

IDF MAINTAINS 5 STRATEGIC POSITIONS conducting near-daily operations while LAF deploys 10,000 troops establishing governmental authority in other areas.

The combination of Thursday’s four-town strikes after Naqoura talks, 5,198 violations pattern, 127 civilian deaths, IDF’s 5 positions, and LAF’s advancement creates CRITICAL transitional danger.

Key Factor: CRITICAL status from Thursday’s strikes following Naqoura diplomatic breakthrough within 5,198 violations and 127 civilian deaths pattern.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 87/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Among Thursday’s Strike Targets and 5,198 Violations. The governorate faces maximum security crisis from being among systematic strike zones.

Thursday’s evacuation warnings and strikes targeted areas within or near governorate demonstrating continued vulnerability despite diplomatic progress.

Community services face extreme pressure from systematic violations pattern, 127 civilian deaths since ceasefire, and Thursday’s strikes following Naqoura talks.

Medical facilities coordinate emergency response while managing transition environment from LAF’s disarmament progress (10,000 troops, infrastructure dismantling).

Local communities experience maximum vulnerability from Thursday’s strikes, 5,198 violations pattern, and 127 civilian deaths amid LAF advancement.

Key Factor: Critical vulnerability from Thursday’s strikes and systematic violations within 5,198 documented breaches despite Naqoura diplomatic breakthrough.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – POST-NAQOURA DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS

🔴 CRITICAL IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS:

December 3 Historic Breakthrough:

1. FIRST DIRECT CIVILIAN TALKS – Lebanese-Israeli representatives at Naqoura in decades
2. SIMON KARAM & URI RESNICK – Lebanon’s former US ambassador, Israel’s NSC official
3. US ENVOY ORTAGUS PRESENT – Special Representative facilitated historic meeting
4. FOLLOW-UP MEETING PLANNED – Economic cooperation proposals for later December
5. CEASEFIRE MONITORING MECHANISM – Part of US-UNIFIL-Israel-France-Lebanon committee

Thursday December 4 Response:

1. FOUR SOUTHERN TOWNS STRUCK – Jbaa, Mahrouna, Mjadel, Baraachit hit
2. EVACUATION WARNINGS ISSUED – IDF spokesperson ordered residents evacuate 300+ meters
3. WEAPONS DEPOTS TARGETED – Israel claims Hezbollah infrastructure violations
4. RESIDENTIAL AREA DESTROYED – Jbaa densely populated neighborhood hit
5. “NEGOTIATIONS UNDER FIRE” – Israeli message per reports

Systematic Violations Pattern:

1. 5,198 TOTAL VIOLATIONS – Lebanese army documented by end November
2. 657 AIR STRIKES – Among documented ceasefire breaches
3. 127 CIVILIANS KILLED – UN Human Rights Office since November 2024 ceasefire
4. IDF 5 POSITIONS – Maintained north of Blue Line despite withdrawal requirement
5. NEAR-DAILY OPERATIONS – Systematic pattern throughout ceasefire period

LAF Disarmament Progress:

1. 10,000 TROOPS DEPLOYED – LAF forces in southern Lebanon
2. 74 TUNNELS DISMANTLED – Since September infrastructure removal
3. 175 ROCKET LAUNCHERS – Discovered and neutralized
4. 58 MISSILES REMOVED – LAF operations successful
5. YEAR-END TARGET – Clear all arms outside state control

🟠 COMPLEX TRANSITION FACTORS:

Unprecedented Environment:

1. Historic Naqoura Talks – First direct civilian talks in decades December 3
2. Papal Visit Success – 150,000-person mass, Golden Rose to Harissa
3. 5,198 Violations – Systematic breaches documented by LAF
4. Thursday’s Strikes – Four towns hit less than 24 hours after talks
5. UNIFIL Ending 2026 – Mission withdrawal beginning December 2026

⚠️ COMPLEX TRANSITION ASSESSMENT:

• December 3 Historic Talks – First direct Lebanese-Israeli civilian meeting in decades
• 5,198 Violations Documented – LAF records systematic breaches by end November
• Thursday’s Four-Town Strikes – Less than 24 hours after diplomatic breakthrough
• 127 Civilians Killed – UN-verified since November 2024 ceasefire
• LAF Progress – 10,000 troops, 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – POST-NAQOURA DIPLOMATIC PERIOD

🏠 RESIDENT SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS:

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM – HISTORIC TALKS AMID CONTINUING VIOLATIONS: Lebanon experiences cautious optimism from December 3 historic Naqoura talks (first direct civilian meeting in decades) and successful papal visit, while 5,198 documented violations and Thursday’s four-town strikes demonstrate systematic operations continuing.

IMMEDIATE SECURITY ACTIONS:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON CAUTION – Thursday’s four-town strikes (Jbaa, Mahrouna, Mjadel, Baraachit)
• DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS MONITORING – Follow-up economic cooperation meeting planned
• SYSTEMATIC VIOLATIONS AWARENESS – 5,198 LAF-documented breaches pattern
• LAF DEPLOYMENT RECOGNITION – 10,000 troops establishing governmental authority
• CIVILIAN DEATH TOLL – 127 killed since ceasefire requiring vigilance

INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONAL OPPORTUNITY: Historic Naqoura diplomatic breakthrough and LAF’s advancement (10,000 troops, 74 tunnels dismantled) offer stabilization path while 5,198 violations and 127 civilian deaths demonstrate continuing challenges.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATION RECOMMENDATIONS:

DIPLOMATIC TRANSITION PROTOCOLS:

• SOUTHERN OPERATIONS CAUTION – Thursday’s strike zones (four towns)
• DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS TRACKING – Economic cooperation proposals follow-up
• LAF COORDINATION – 10,000 troops deployment areas
• SYSTEMATIC VIOLATIONS MONITORING – 5,198 documented breaches pattern
• YEAR-END DISARMAMENT – LAF target to clear all arms

🚗 TRAVEL SECURITY STATUS:

MAXIMUM CAUTION – DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS BUT VIOLATIONS CONTINUE: December 3 historic Naqoura talks demonstrate breakthrough while Thursday’s strikes and 5,198 violations require MAXIMUM CAUTION.

ELEVATED DANGER ZONES:

• JBAA, MAHROUNA, MJADEL, BARAACHIT – Thursday’s strike targets
• SOUTHERN LEBANON – 5,198 violations concentration, IDF 5 positions
• BEQAA VALLEY – Among systematic strike zones
• ALL SOUTHERN VILLAGES – 127 civilian deaths pattern areas
• IDF 5 MAINTAINED POSITIONS – Ground presence zones

🔮 48-HOUR TRANSITION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 80/100
Forecast Trend: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – DIPLOMATIC MOMENTUM BUILDING

Transition Developments Probability:

1. Economic Cooperation Follow-Up (75% probability) – Late December meeting planned
2. Continued LAF Operations (90% probability) – 10,000 troops advancing disarmament
3. Additional Strikes (70% probability) – Systematic violations pattern continuing
4. Diplomatic Channel Maintenance (80% probability) – Naqoura mechanism active
5. UNIFIL Transition Planning (85% probability) – December 2026 withdrawal preparations

Critical Monitoring Factors: Economic cooperation proposals, LAF disarmament pace, diplomatic follow-up meeting, systematic violations pattern, IDF 5 positions status.

Stabilization Factors: Economic cooperation advancement, LAF disarmament success, strikes cessation, IDF withdrawal from 5 positions, diplomatic momentum maintenance.

📊 POST-NAQOURA DIPLOMATIC ANALYSIS

Today’s Security Level: Elevated – Historic Talks Breakthrough with Continuing Violations
Change from Previous Assessment: -5 points (Improvement from diplomatic breakthrough)
Crisis Trend: Transition with Major Diplomatic Progress and LAF Advancement
Assessment: Lebanon experiences elevated security environment with December 3 historic Naqoura talks marking first direct Lebanese-Israeli civilian meeting in decades facilitated by US envoy Ortagus, while 5,198 LAF-documented violations including 657 air strikes and 127 UN-verified civilian deaths demonstrate systematic operations continuing alongside LAF’s advancement (10,000 troops deployed, 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles dismantled).

Strategic Post-Naqoura Analysis: Wednesday December 3, 2025, Lebanese and Israeli civilian representatives held first direct talks in decades at UN peacekeeping headquarters in Naqoura with US Special Representative Morgan Ortagus present, with Lebanon sending former ambassador to US Simon Karam while Israel sent Uri Resnick of National Security Council.

Thursday December 4 Israeli air force struck multiple southern Lebanon towns (Jbaa, Mahrouna, Mjadel, Baraachit) less than 24 hours after diplomatic breakthrough, targeting alleged Hezbollah weapons depots with IDF issuing evacuation warnings ordering residents evacuate 300+ meters from marked structures.

Lebanese army officials documented 5,198 Israeli ceasefire violations including 657 air strikes by end of November, while UN Human Rights Office reports approximately 127 Lebanese civilians killed in operations since November 27, 2024 ceasefire hitting homes, vehicles, and civilian objects.

Lebanese Armed Forces deployed nearly 10,000 troops in southern Lebanon establishing governmental authority while dismantling 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, 58 missiles since September with officials reporting swifter progress monthly targeting year-end deadline to clear all arms outside state control.

Pope Leo XIV concluded historic first papal visit December 2 with 150,000-person mass at Beirut Waterfront and December 1 Golden Rose presentation to Harissa shrine, emphasizing interfaith dialogue and youth hope despite Lebanon’s economic crisis.

UNIFIL mission will cease operations December 31, 2026, then withdraw 10,800 military and civilian personnel over following year in consultation with Lebanese government, with Security Council voting unanimously August 2025 for final mandate extension.

Israeli forces continue maintaining five strategic positions north of Blue Line despite ceasefire requiring full withdrawal, conducting military activities including mortar fire in violation of agreement terms.

Channel 12 reported Israeli and Lebanese representatives agreed to hold follow-up meeting later December to continue exploring economic cooperation with proposals for agriculture, technology, transportation and infrastructure sectors.

The convergence of December 3 historic Naqoura civilian talks, Thursday’s four-town strikes, 5,198 documented violations, 127 civilian deaths, LAF’s advancement (10,000 troops, infrastructure dismantling), successful papal visit, and planned economic cooperation follow-up creates elevated transitional environment with unprecedented diplomatic breakthrough alongside systematic ceasefire violations requiring careful international engagement.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: POST-NAQOURA DIPLOMATIC PROTOCOLS

🟠 ELEVATED ALERT – HISTORIC TALKS BREAKTHROUGH & LAF PROGRESS

During Lebanon’s elevated environment with December 3 historic Naqoura talks, LAF’s advancement, and systematic violations, CIS Security maintains enhanced protocols.

DIPLOMATIC TRANSITION SERVICES:

Naqoura Talks Developments:

• Historic Breakthrough Coordination – First direct civilian talks security
• Economic Cooperation Proposals – Follow-up meeting preparation
• US Envoy Liaison – Ortagus facilitation coordination
• Ceasefire Mechanism Monitoring – US-UNIFIL-Israel-France-Lebanon committee

LAF Disarmament Support:

• 10,000 Troops Coordination – Southern Lebanon deployment security
• Infrastructure Dismantling – 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles documentation
• Governmental Authority – LAF establishing control coordination
• Year-End Target Tracking – Arms clearance deadline monitoring

🟠 DIPLOMATIC TRANSITION CONTACT – ENHANCED ALERT

EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTER: +961-3-539900
Enhanced protocols for post-Naqoura talks and LAF advancement

DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS: Economic cooperation proposals coordination
LAF PROGRESS MONITORING: 10,000 troops deployment tracking
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTATION: 5,198 breaches pattern coordination

During Lebanon’s diplomatic breakthrough with historic Naqoura talks and LAF advancement, CIS Security provides enhanced protection.

⚠️ POST-NAQOURA DIPLOMATIC NOTICE

ELEVATED TRANSITION ALERT: Lebanon experiences unprecedented diplomatic breakthrough with December 3, 2025 historic Naqoura talks marking first direct Lebanese-Israeli civilian meeting in decades facilitated by US Special Representative Morgan Ortagus, while Lebanese Armed Forces advances disarmament (10,000 troops deployed, 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, 58 missiles dismantled), systematic violations continue (5,198 documented breaches including 657 air strikes), and 127 UN-verified civilian deaths since November 2024 ceasefire create complex transitional environment requiring enhanced security protocols.

Update Frequency: Real-time monitoring during diplomatic transition. Alerts: Immediate updates for follow-up meetings and violations.

HISTORIC NAQOURA TALKS: First direct Lebanese-Israeli civilian meeting in decades December 3 with economic cooperation follow-up planned.

LAF MAJOR PROGRESS: 10,000 troops deployed with 74 tunnels, 175 launchers, 58 missiles dismantled since September targeting year-end arms clearance.

Professional Diplomatic Statement: CIS Security maintains enhanced capabilities during unprecedented diplomatic breakthrough with December 3 Naqoura talks (first direct civilian meeting in decades), LAF’s major advancement (10,000 troops, infrastructure dismantling), and successful papal visit (150,000-person mass). Our commitment to all personnel safety remains absolute during elevated transitional period with 5,198 documented violations and diplomatic momentum building.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Protection During Diplomatic Breakthrough Period”

During Lebanon’s unprecedented diplomatic breakthrough with historic Naqoura talks and LAF advancement, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years expertise.

CIS Security Diplomatic Transition Services:

• Naqoura Talks Coordination – Historic breakthrough security response
• LAF Progress Monitoring – 10,000 troops deployment coordination
• Economic Cooperation Support – Follow-up meeting preparation security
• Papal Visit Success Documentation – 150,000-person mass coordination
• 5,198 Violations Tracking – Systematic breaches pattern monitoring

Diplomatic Transition Consultation: 📞 24/7 Emergency Command: +961-3-539900
💬 Enhanced Diplomatic WhatsApp: Real-time breakthrough coordination
🌐 Emergency Website: www.cissecurity.net

During Lebanon’s elevated transition with historic Naqoura talks, LAF’s major advancement, and diplomatic momentum building, CIS Security provides enhanced maximum protection.