CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Dec 30 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🟡 ELEVATED
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 76/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM – DIPLOMATIC PROGRESS DESPITE CONTINUED VIOLATIONS

🚨 YEAR-END ASSESSMENT: TRANSFORMATION AMID CHALLENGES

CURRENT SITUATION – TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2025:

PRESIDENT AOUN’S OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who has promised to disarm Hezbollah, expressed optimism that diplomatic efforts will prevent Israel from embarking on another major military operation in Lebanon. “Diplomatic contacts to push back the specter of war have not stopped,” Aoun said. “I tell you that the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon, and matters will head in a positive direction, God willing.”

TRANSFORMATIVE YEAR FOR LEBANON: As Lebanon enters the new year, developments show both progress and familiar challenges. After a two-year political vacuum, the country has a new president, Joseph Aoun, and a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, which won a parliamentary confidence vote in February 2025. President Aoun predicts “the birth of a new Lebanon” next year, promising a state of accountability and institutions over parties and sects.

MAJOR LEGISLATIVE ACHIEVEMENTS: Lebanon’s government, the most credible in decades, has advanced on several key fronts. Notably, it recently presented a so-called gap law that distributes the $70 billion in losses from the financial collapse, and outlines compensation for depositors. It has also decided to impose a state monopoly over weapons – a move directed primarily at disarming Hezbollah.

DISARMAMENT PROGRESS: Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said last week that the country was close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River, and that the government was now moving towards confiscating weapons north of the Litani. The army says the first phase of Hezbollah’s disarmament near the southern border will finish by year-end, with later phases considering security and national interests.

CONTINUED BUT DECREASING VIOLATIONS: Recent Israeli operations between December 22-28 killed six people, including five militants of various affiliations and one LAF soldier who was also an alleged Hezbollah operative. The IDF conducted operations in 22 Lebanese locales during the week, including strikes on Hezbollah assets and Radwan Force training camps, as well as targeted killings.

DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT SUCCESS: Last week, Israeli and Lebanese officials met directly in the southern Lebanon town of Naqoura, the second such meeting this month, as the two enemy states look to maintain the year-old ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war while tensions persist.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 69/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Major Governmental Progress. The capital experiences its most stable period in years under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s leadership. President Aoun’s Christmas Day statement that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon, and matters will head in a positive direction, God willing” reflects genuine diplomatic progress and governmental confidence.

The government’s legislative achievements are unprecedented. The passage of the gap law distributing $70 billion in losses from the financial collapse and outlining depositor compensation represents major financial sector reform. Additional laws on judicial independence, banking secrecy, banking sector restructuring, and generator pollution filters demonstrate systematic governance improvement.

The decision to impose state monopoly over weapons, directed primarily at disarming Hezbollah, represents the most significant assertion of state authority in decades. While implementation faces challenges, the legal framework now exists for comprehensive disarmament operations.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects ongoing vigilance but within normalized operational parameters rather than crisis response. Diplomatic activities proceed with functional international cooperation, particularly with Israeli officials meeting directly in Naqoura twice this month.

The electricity situation continues improving under stable governmental authority, with the new generator filter law addressing pollution concerns that previously killed citizens through unregulated generator emissions.

Key Factor: Historic governmental stability with unprecedented legislative achievements and successful diplomatic engagement pushing back war specter while establishing legal framework for comprehensive state authority consolidation.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 66/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Economic Recovery Indicators. The governorate benefits significantly from political stabilization and governmental reform achievements. Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi’s Christmas message calling for praying for negotiations success and Lebanese Army’s success in collecting “illegal weapons” demonstrates religious leadership support for governmental disarmament efforts.

Business confidence increases substantially with governmental stability and financial sector reform creating predictable policy environment. Tourism sector shows recovery indicators as political stability attracts domestic and international visitors.

The region continues serving as primary destination for economic activity and investment as governmental credibility attracts development interest. Infrastructure improvements proceed systematically under stable governmental framework with international support.

Economic activities expand as systematic governance reforms create confidence in long-term stability prospects. Family-owned businesses benefit from financial sector reforms and improved regulatory environment.

Key Factor: Religious leadership support for disarmament combined with governmental stability creating business confidence and economic recovery indicators while infrastructure improvements proceed systematically.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 70/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Regional Development Potential. Tripoli and surrounding areas benefit from governmental stability and reform achievements. The port city experiences renewed commercial confidence as systematic governance creates predictable business environment.

Economic conditions show steady improvement as national reform agenda attracts international investment and development funding. Cross-border trade with Syria proceeds under stable Lebanese governmental framework with enhanced coordination.

Infrastructure projects benefit from governmental credibility and international cooperation. Essential service improvements proceed systematically with banking sector reform enabling infrastructure development financing.

Educational and healthcare sectors benefit from stable governance and international support, with banking sector reforms enabling systematic investment in social infrastructure.

Key Factor: Commercial confidence returning with governmental stability enabling port operations expansion and cross-border trade development under systematic governance framework.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 71/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Security Enhancement. The Syrian border situation continues improving under governmental stability and Lebanese Armed Forces coordination. Border security operations benefit from state authority consolidation and disarmament progress.

Cross-border security operations proceed effectively with international support as LAF operations receive governmental backing and international recognition. Humanitarian coordination with Syrian authorities proceeds normally under stable Lebanese governmental framework.

The region benefits from governmental stability enabling systematic border security improvements and LAF capacity building. International development interest increases with governmental credibility attracting border region investment.

Key Factor: Border security enhancement through LAF operations under governmental authority creating regional stability and development potential.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Disarmament Implementation Progress. The valley experiences significant transition as disarmament operations proceed under governmental authority. PM Salam’s statement that the country is close to completing disarmament south of Litani and moving north represents major progress.

Agricultural operations benefit from improved security conditions as systematic disarmament creates stable environment for farming activities. International agricultural development projects resume under governmental stability and security improvements.

The region’s strategic importance makes governmental authority consolidation particularly significant, with disarmament progress demonstrating state capacity despite historical challenges.

Key Factor: Disarmament implementation progress under governmental authority creating agricultural security improvement and development potential despite historical challenges.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 77/100 🔴
Status: Critical but Significantly Improved. This region shows substantial progress despite continued monitoring requirements. Recent Israeli operations between December 22-28 included strikes reaching Hermel, but within context of targeted operations against specific individuals rather than area-wide attacks.

The government’s state monopoly on weapons decision provides legal framework for systematic disarmament operations, though implementation faces ongoing challenges in this historically autonomous region.

Infrastructure improvements proceed under governmental authority, with banking sector reforms enabling systematic development investment. The region experiences gradual normalization under state authority consolidation.

Key Factor: Governmental legal framework for disarmament creating gradual state authority consolidation while infrastructure improvements proceed despite ongoing monitoring requirements.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 64/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Tourism Recovery Success. The coastal governorate experiences substantial improvement as political stability and governmental credibility attract tourist return. Religious and cultural activities proceed normally under stable governance.

Tourism sector shows strong recovery indicators with international visitors returning as security conditions stabilize under governmental authority. Hotels and restaurants report improved bookings and extended planning horizons.

Business confidence increases substantially as governmental reforms create predictable policy environment. Infrastructure projects proceed normally with international cooperation and stable governmental framework.

The region benefits from distance from operational areas while serving as gateway for Lebanon’s returning international engagement and tourism recovery.

Key Factor: Tourism recovery acceleration with governmental stability attracting international visitors while serving as Lebanon’s gateway for economic re-engagement.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical but Stabilizing with Diplomatic Progress. The south experiences significant improvement despite continued operations. The recent week (December 22-28) saw IDF operations in 22 locales, but with only six fatalities including five militants, representing substantial reduction from previous periods.

President Aoun’s visit to South Litani Command and statement about pushing back war specter demonstrates high-level governmental support for LAF operations. The Lebanese Army’s successful operations and disarmament progress south of Litani represent major achievement.

Direct Israeli-Lebanese official meetings in Naqoura (twice this month) demonstrate functional diplomatic engagement and ceasefire monitoring cooperation. UNIFIL operations continue effectively with Lebanese army partnership.

Civilian return proceeds gradually with improved security conditions under LAF deployment and disarmament progress. Infrastructure restoration benefits from governmental stability and international support.

Key Factor: Diplomatic engagement success with direct Israeli-Lebanese meetings and LAF disarmament progress creating stabilization despite continued targeted operations against militants.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 79/100 🔴
Status: Critical but Improving with Reconstruction Progress. The governorate benefits from regional stabilization and disarmament progress. Recent operations between December 22-28 included strikes in Bint Jbeil and Marjayoun districts, but targeting specific individuals rather than civilian areas.

Infrastructure restoration proceeds under governmental framework with international assistance. Medical and educational facilities resume normal operations under stable governmental authority.

The region experiences civilian return as security conditions improve through LAF deployment and disarmament implementation. Agricultural activities resume under improved security environment.

Key Factor: Infrastructure restoration and civilian return proceeding under governmental authority with disarmament progress enabling systematic reconstruction despite continued monitoring requirements.

🎯 YEAR-END SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔄 MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS AND IMPROVEMENTS:

Priority Level 1 – Historic Governmental Success:

1. Presidential Leadership – Joseph Aoun’s election ending two-year vacuum with diplomatic success
2. Financial Reform – Gap law distributing $70 billion losses with depositor compensation
3. State Monopoly on Weapons – Legal framework for comprehensive disarmament
4. Diplomatic Engagement – Direct Israeli-Lebanese official meetings in Naqoura
5. Disarmament Progress – Near completion south of Litani with northward expansion

Priority Level 2 – Systematic Governance Improvements: 6. Judicial Independence – Legal reforms establishing institutional integrity 7. Banking Sector Reform – Comprehensive restructuring enabling economic recovery 8. Generator Pollution Control – Environmental health protection legislation 9. LAF Deployment Success – Army establishing authority throughout south 10. International Cooperation – Enhanced partnerships supporting governmental reforms

✅ SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SECURITY ZONES:

Stabilization Success Areas:

• Government Districts – Functional authority with legislative achievement
• Northern Regions – Commercial confidence returning with stability
• Coastal Areas – Tourism recovery with international visitor return
• South of Litani – Disarmament near completion with LAF deployment

⚠️ CONTINUED MONITORING REQUIREMENTS:

Ongoing Challenge Areas:

• North of Litani – Disarmament planning phase requiring implementation
• Targeted Operations – Continued strikes against specific militant individuals
• Reform Implementation – Legislative achievements requiring execution
• Regional Dynamics** – Syria situation affecting broader stability context

📱 YEAR-END SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

HISTORIC IMPROVEMENT PERIOD: Lebanon experiences its most significant governmental stability since independence with President Aoun and PM Salam achieving unprecedented legislative and diplomatic success.

MAJOR POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS:

• Presidential Optimism: “Specter of war pushed away” with diplomatic progress
• Financial Reform: Gap law providing depositor compensation framework
• State Authority: Legal monopoly on weapons enabling systematic disarmament
• Diplomatic Success: Direct Israeli-Lebanese meetings maintaining ceasefire
• Infrastructure Improvements: Generator pollution control and systematic development

YEAR-END OUTLOOK: President Aoun’s prediction of “the birth of a new Lebanon” based on institutions over parties represents genuine governmental transformation with systematic reform implementation creating long-term stability prospects.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

UNPRECEDENTED STABILITY:

• Financial Sector Reform: Banking restructuring and depositor compensation creating business confidence
• Regulatory Improvements: Judicial independence and banking secrecy reforms
• Infrastructure Development: Systematic improvements under stable governance
• International Engagement: Enhanced partnerships supporting business operations

EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES:

• Tourism sector recovery with international visitor return
• Infrastructure development with reformed banking sector financing
• Regional commerce with governmental stability attracting investment
• International partnerships with Lebanon’s improved credibility

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY – YEAR-END ASSESSMENT:

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS: Lebanon demonstrates substantial improvement with governmental stability, diplomatic success, and systematic reform implementation creating most favorable conditions in decades.

CURRENT STATUS:

• Diplomatic Progress: Direct Israeli-Lebanese engagement maintaining ceasefire
• Governmental Stability: Historic legislative achievements and authority consolidation
• Security Improvements: LAF deployment success with disarmament progress
• International Confidence: Enhanced partnerships and visitor return

📊 YEAR-END TRANSFORMATION ANALYSIS

Year-End Assessment: Historic Governmental Achievement Period
Presidential Leadership: Joseph Aoun ending political vacuum with diplomatic success
Legislative Achievements: Gap law, weapons monopoly, judicial/banking reforms
Diplomatic Progress: Direct Israeli-Lebanese meetings with war specter pushed back
Reform Implementation: Systematic governance improvements creating long-term stability

Critical Year-End Analysis: Lebanon concludes 2025 with unprecedented governmental achievements under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. After a two-year political vacuum, the new government passed major legislation including the gap law distributing $70 billion in losses, state monopoly on weapons law, judicial independence reforms, banking sector restructuring, and generator pollution controls.

President Aoun’s Christmas statement that “the specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon” reflects genuine diplomatic progress with direct Israeli-Lebanese official meetings in Naqoura twice in December maintaining the year-old ceasefire.

Prime Minister Salam’s announcement that disarmament south of Litani is near completion with northward expansion represents historic state authority consolidation. The legal framework now exists for comprehensive disarmament through state weapons monopoly legislation.

Ceasefire Status: Recent operations between December 22-28 resulted in six fatalities (five militants, one LAF soldier alleged as Hezbollah operative) across 22 locales, representing substantial reduction from previous periods and indicating targeted operations rather than area-wide attacks.

Financial Reform Impact: The gap law distributing $70 billion in losses with depositor compensation framework represents Lebanon’s most significant financial sector reform since independence, creating foundation for economic recovery and international confidence restoration.

Long-term Transformation: President Aoun’s prediction of “the birth of a new Lebanon” based on accountability, institutions over parties and sects represents fundamental governmental transformation. While traditional power structures persist, the legal and institutional framework now exists for systematic reform implementation.

International Support: Enhanced partnerships with regional and international actors, direct diplomatic engagement with Israel, and successful ceasefire maintenance demonstrate Lebanon’s improved credibility and governmental capacity.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: YEAR-END STABILITY SERVICES

🎉 HISTORIC TRANSFORMATION – PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SUPPORTING SUCCESS

CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during Lebanon’s historic governmental achievement period, supporting unprecedented stability and systematic reform implementation under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership.

YEAR-END TRANSFORMATION SERVICES:

Governmental Achievement Support:

• Legislative Success Protection – Security enabling parliamentary operations and reform implementation
• Diplomatic Engagement Security – Professional services for Israeli-Lebanese direct meetings
• Disarmament Implementation Support – Security coordinating with LAF weapons collection operations
• Financial Reform Security – Protection for banking sector operations during restructuring

Economic Recovery Enablement:

• Tourism Recovery Security – Professional services supporting international visitor return
• Business Expansion Protection – Security enabling investment and development activities
• Infrastructure Development Security – Protection for systematic improvement projects
• International Partnership Security – Services supporting enhanced regional cooperation

Stability Consolidation Services:

• Presidential Protection – Enhanced security for historic governmental leadership
• LAF Coordination – Professional support for army deployment and disarmament operations
• International Cooperation Security – Services for diplomatic and development partnerships
• Long-term Stability Support – Comprehensive protection enabling transformation consolidation

SPECIALIZED TRANSFORMATION PERIOD SERVICES:

Reform Implementation Security:

• Professional protection for judicial independence operations
• Security for banking sector restructuring and depositor compensation
• Protection for weapons collection and state monopoly implementation
• Services supporting generator pollution control enforcement

Diplomatic Success Support:

• Enhanced security for Israeli-Lebanese direct engagement in Naqoura
• Professional services for international partnership development
• Protection for ceasefire monitoring and maintenance operations
• Security supporting regional diplomatic coordination

Economic Transformation Security:

• Tourism sector protection enabling international visitor confidence
• Business development security supporting investment activities
• Infrastructure project protection for systematic improvements
• International commerce security enabling regional trade expansion

📞 YEAR-END TRANSFORMATION COORDINATION

STABILITY SUPPORT HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional security enabling Lebanon’s historic governmental achievement consolidation

REFORM IMPLEMENTATION SECURITY: Protection for legislative achievement execution
DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT SECURITY: Services supporting Israeli-Lebanese cooperation
ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROTECTION: Comprehensive security enabling business expansion

Transformation Support Centers:

• Governmental Achievement Center: Security for legislative and executive operations
• Diplomatic Success Division: Professional services for international engagement
• Economic Recovery Office: Protection enabling tourism and business development
• Long-term Stability Coordination: Comprehensive security supporting transformation consolidation

During Lebanon’s historic transformation with unprecedented governmental achievements, CIS Security’s professional services enable stability consolidation, reform implementation, and economic recovery under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership creating the birth of a new Lebanon based on institutions, accountability, and state authority.

⚠️ YEAR-END TRANSFORMATION OPERATIONAL SUCCESS

HISTORIC ACHIEVEMENT NOTICE: Lebanon concludes 2025 with unprecedented governmental success including gap law passage, state weapons monopoly legislation, judicial/banking reforms, and diplomatic progress with Israel pushing back war specter under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s leadership.

Transformation Consolidation: President Aoun’s prediction of “the birth of a new Lebanon” based on institutions over parties represents fundamental governmental transformation with legal framework now established for systematic reform implementation and long-term stability consolidation.

Diplomatic Success Recognition: Direct Israeli-Lebanese official meetings in Naqoura twice in December maintaining year-old ceasefire while Prime Minister Salam announces disarmament near completion south of Litani with northward expansion demonstrates historic state authority consolidation.

Professional Transformation Support: CIS Security provides comprehensive protection enabling Lebanon’s governmental achievement consolidation, reform implementation, and economic recovery during this historic transformation period creating long-term stability prospects.

New Lebanon Commitment: Our services support President Aoun’s vision of accountability-based governance with systematic reform implementation enabling the birth of a new Lebanon founded on institutional integrity, state authority monopoly, and comprehensive stability consolidation.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s historic governmental transformation with President Joseph Aoun and PM Nawaf Salam achieving unprecedented legislative success, pushing back war specter through diplomatic engagement, and implementing systematic disarmament, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise supporting Lebanon’s most significant stability period since independence. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive transformation support including governmental achievement protection, diplomatic engagement security, reform implementation services, and economic recovery enablement. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting Lebanon’s birth of a new nation based on institutions, accountability, and state authority.

CIS Security Year-End Transformation Services:

• Governmental Achievement Protection – Security for gap law, weapons monopoly, judicial/banking reform implementation
• Diplomatic Success Security – Professional services for Israeli-Lebanese direct engagement in Naqoura
• Disarmament Implementation Support – Coordination with LAF weapons collection operations south and north of Litani
• Economic Recovery Security – Tourism return, business expansion, infrastructure development protection
• Financial Reform Protection – Banking sector restructuring and depositor compensation security
• Long-term Stability Consolidation – Comprehensive services supporting transformation permanence

Why Choose CIS During Historic Transformation: ✓ 35+ Years Transformation Experience – Proven security supporting Lebanon through all governmental transitions
✓ Presidential Achievement Support – Professional coordination with historic Aoun-Salam leadership
✓ Diplomatic Success Security – Services enabling Israeli-Lebanese direct engagement success
✓ Reform Implementation Protection – Security for gap law, weapons monopoly, judicial/banking reforms
✓ Economic Recovery Enablement – Tourism, business, infrastructure development security
✓ New Lebanon Vision Support – Comprehensive protection consolidating transformation achievements

Historic Transformation Support: 📞 Stability Consolidation Hotline: +961-3-539900
💬 Reform Implementation Security: Professional protection for legislative achievement execution
🌐 Transformation Services: www.cissecurity.net – Comprehensive year-end stability support
📧 Economic Recovery Security: Tourism, business, infrastructure development protection

Serving all Lebanese governorates during historic transformation with unprecedented governmental achievements. CIS Security – Your trusted partner supporting Lebanon’s birth of a new nation under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership, enabling gap law implementation, state weapons monopoly consolidation, diplomatic success with Israel, disarmament progress, and economic recovery creating institutions-based governance, accountability, and long-term stability during this transformative year-end period.