🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Feb 21 2026

Saturday, February 21, 2026 | Ramadan Day 4

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL — MAXIMUM ALERT OVERALL INDEX: 92/100 ⬆️ HIGHEST EVER RECORDED TREND: ⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING

⚡ HEADLINE ASSESSMENT — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2026

LEBANON STANDS AT THE EDGE OF REGIONAL WAR. DEADLIEST BEKAA STRIKES SINCE CEASEFIRE. IRGC NOW RUNNING HEZBOLLAH. HEZBOLLAH WARNS RESISTANCE IS THE ONLY OPTION. TRUMP’S IRAN DEADLINE TICKING. USS GERALD R. FORD IN MEDITERRANEAN. PENTAGON MOVING PERSONNEL OUT OF THE REGION AHEAD OF POSSIBLE STRIKE. BEIRUT URGED TO DECLARE NEUTRALITY. CEASEFIRE IN NAME ONLY.

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2026

All events verified from named wire services, major international outlets, and official statements

🔴 BREAKING #1 — DEADLIEST BEKAA STRIKES SINCE NOVEMBER 2024 CEASEFIRE: 12 KILLED, 50+ WOUNDED

[AFP, AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, Euronews, NBC News — confirmed Feb 20-21, 2026]

In the most lethal single Israeli operation on Lebanese territory since the November 2024 ceasefire, Israeli warplanes and naval vessels struck multiple locations across the Bekaa Valley on Friday evening (February 20), killing at least 12 people and wounding more than 50. Lebanese Health Ministry confirmed 10 dead in the east and 2 in the south. Security sources told Reuters the wounded figure reached 50.

Specific locations struck:

• Ali al-Nahri (Bekaa Valley) — heavily damaged building, confirmed meeting point of Hezbollah missile unit commanders; multiple Hezbollah commanders killed inside an apartment
• Bednayel — three-story residential building, top floor destroyed; AFP correspondent on scene saw bulldozer clearing rubble Saturday morning
• Riyaq (Rayak) — near Rayak Hospital; doctor confirmed receiving 10 bodies and treating 21 injured, including 2 non-Lebanese (one Syrian man, one Ethiopian woman); 8 wounded were also foreign nationals
• Tamnine plain — struck by warplane
• Qsarnaba — struck, casualties reported
• Al-Shaara hill near Nabi Sheet — additional airstrike, no confirmed casualty figures

The IDF confirmed it “struck three Hezbollah command centers belonging to the terror group’s missile force in the Baalbek area” and said the operatives’ activities “constitute a violation of the ceasefire.” The IDF also stated that Hezbollah’s missile forces were “currently working to plan rocket and missile attacks against Israel.” Crucially, strikes were launched from naval vessels, not only aircraft — a significant escalation in method demonstrating Israel’s multi-domain strike capability and reach.

Named dead (Hezbollah confirmed):

• Hussein Mohammad Yaghi — Bekaa area Hezbollah commander; son of Mohammed Yaghi, a Hezbollah founder (died 2023); mass funeral held Saturday in Baalbek with hundreds of mourners waving Hezbollah flags
• Ali al-Moussawi — local-level commander
• Mohammed al-Moussawi — local-level commander
• Hussein Yaghi — killed alongside the three commanders in the Ali al-Nahri apartment

Civilian dimension: The Lebanese Health Ministry’s toll includes non-Hezbollah victims — a Syrian man and Ethiopian woman confirmed killed at Riyaq Hospital, and at least 8 additional foreign nationals among the wounded. Strikes hit residential areas, per AFP’s on-scene correspondent. Three children were among the 24 wounded, per Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

🔴 BREAKING #2 — AIN AL-HILWEH REFUGEE CAMP DRONE STRIKE: 2 KILLED, MULTIPLE WOUNDED

[Xinhua, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, FDD Long War Journal — confirmed Feb 20-21, 2026]

Hours before the Bekaa massacre, an Israeli drone struck the Hittin neighbourhood of the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in Sidon — Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp — on Friday afternoon (February 20). An Israeli drone fired two to three missiles at a building that the Palestinian joint security force had previously used.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry confirmed 2 killed, identified by Hamas as members of the group. Multiple others were wounded; Sidon hospitals issued urgent appeals for blood donations. The IDF stated it struck “a Hamas command center from which terrorists operated,” adding that Hamas had been using the center for “preparations for terrorist activities against IDF forces in Lebanese territory, including training.”

Hamas condemned the strike, saying the targeted building “belongs to the joint security force charged with maintaining security and stability in the camp” and was not a command center. The IDF stated the site was embedded “in the heart of a civilian population, cynically exploiting residents as human shields.”

Context: A previous Israeli strike on Ain al-Hilweh in November 2025 killed 13 people. This is now the second strike on Lebanon’s largest refugee camp in three months.

🔴 BREAKING #3 — HEZBOLLAH: “RESISTANCE IS OUR ONLY OPTION” — VOWS TO FIGHT BACK

[AFP, Al-Monitor, France24, Japan Today, multiple wire services — today]

In a landmark and alarming speech broadcast on Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television during a protest in Beirut on Saturday, Hezbollah Deputy Political Council Chief Mahmoud Qamati declared the Friday strikes constituted a level of aggression surpassing all previous attacks and signalled Hezbollah’s intent to retaliate.

Qamati stated the Bekaa strikes were “a new massacre and a new aggression, exceeding all the previous levels of aggression against Lebanon.” He then asked pointedly: “What option do we have left to defend ourselves and our country? What option do we have other than resistance? We no longer have any option.”

Hezbollah lawmaker Rami Abu Hamdan escalated the pressure on the Lebanese government, declaring the bloc “will not accept the authorities acting as mere political analysts, dismissing these as Israeli strikes we have grown accustomed to before every meeting of the committee.” He slammed Lebanese authorities for “inaction” and demanded “a fundamental shift in how they defend the nation.”

In Baalbek: A mass public funeral was held for commander Hussein Mohammad Yaghi and at least one other fighter. Hundreds gathered, waving Hezbollah flags and chanting support — a deliberate public show of strength and defiance timed to accompany Qamati’s speech.

🔴 BREAKING #4 — BOMBSHELL: IRGC NOW RUNNING HEZBOLLAH, PREPARING IT FOR WAR

[Al-Arabiya, Al-Hadath, Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, The Media Line — confirmed today]

In the most alarming intelligence disclosure of the week, Saudi outlets Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath — citing sources close to Hezbollah — report that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively taken operational control of Hezbollah as it prepares for potential war with the US and Israel.

Key findings:

• IRGC officers, some of whom recently arrived in Lebanon from Iran, are “tasked with rebuilding Hezbollah’s military capabilities” and have been “personally briefing Hezbollah fighters across Lebanon”
• IRGC personnel were meeting with Hezbollah’s missile unit at the site in the Bekaa Valley that was struck by Israel on Friday — confirming the missiles Israel struck were directly linked to IRGC-supervised rearmament
• The IRGC officers are not only rebuilding infrastructure but are “personally managing and executing strategic war plans”
• Sources close to Hezbollah stated that “a wider Israeli military offensive against Hezbollah is only a matter of time”
• Israel’s IDF Yuval (91st Division Commander) stated on Wednesday that Israel would remain “on the attack” in Lebanon

Direct Lebanon implication: The IDF struck an IRGC-supervised Hezbollah meeting in the Bekaa on Friday. If Iran is struck by the US, IRGC officers embedded in Lebanon would almost certainly direct Hezbollah’s response — transforming Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley into an immediate war zone.

🔴 BREAKING #5 — TRUMP’S IRAN DEADLINE: 10-15 DAYS, USS FORD IN MEDITERRANEAN, PENTAGON MOVING PERSONNEL

[ABC News, Reuters, France24, CBS News, Times of Israel, Al Jazeera — confirmed Feb 19-21, 2026]

The single most consequential factor for Lebanon’s immediate security environment remains the US-Iran nuclear standoff. Saturday’s key developments:

Trump’s Board of Peace ultimatum (February 19): At the inaugural meeting of his “Board of Peace,” Trump explicitly warned Iran it has 10 to 15 days to reach a “meaningful deal” or face consequences. His exact words: “We’re either going to get a deal or it’s going to be unfortunate for them.” Asked about the deadline, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One: “I would think that would be enough time — 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum.”

Military buildup — confirmed:

• USS Gerald R. Ford — world’s largest aircraft carrier — crossed the Strait of Gibraltar Friday and is now in the Mediterranean; expected to reach Middle East operational position within days
• USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group already operational in the region
• Muwaffaq Salti base, Jordan — NYT confirms more than 60 attack aircraft (F-35As, EA-18G Growlers, F-15E Strike Eagles, F-16s) plus at least 68 cargo planes have landed there over the past week
• THAAD and Patriot anti-missile batteries repositioned
• Pentagon is moving some personnel temporarily out of the Middle East ahead of potential action or counterattacks — “primarily to Europe or back to the United States,” per CBS News. This is standard pre-strike protective repositioning

Diplomatic status: Talks are continuing; Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly asked for “another day or two” for Iran to submit a proposal. A US official told Channel 12 the 10-15 day deadline is “not scientific.” Iran’s UN Ambassador threatened that all US/allied bases in the region would be “legitimate targets” if attacked. Iran’s letter to the UN Security Council called Trump’s threats “real risk of military aggression.” Secretary of State Rubio is set to meet Netanyahu February 28 to discuss Iran. US officials say strikes could target individuals and potentially pursue regime change.

Lebanon’s neutrality demand: Anti-Hezbollah Lebanese outlet Nidaa al-Watan, citing “prominent political sources,” stated on Saturday that Beirut must declare its neutrality in any US-Iran war and refuse to allow Hezbollah to drag Lebanon into conflict. President Aoun has previously told international interlocutors that “Lebanon will not serve as an arena for or provide assistance to Iran.”

🔴 BREAKING #6 — PRESIDENT AOUN CONDEMNS STRIKES AS “BLATANT ACT OF AGGRESSION” TARGETING DIPLOMACY

[AFP, Al-Monitor, Cyprus Mail, Naharnet — confirmed today]

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun issued a strong formal condemnation of Friday’s strikes, describing them as “a blatant act of aggression aimed at thwarting diplomatic efforts” by the United States and other nations to stabilize Lebanon.

Aoun specifically stated the strikes reflect “contempt for the will of the international community and UN resolutions” — notably Resolution 1701 — and urgently called on countries backing regional stability, explicitly including the United States, to “press for an immediate halt to avert further escalation.”

Aoun also warned that Lebanon’s involvement in a wider conflict “would have devastating consequences for the country.” This public statement is significant: Aoun is placing the US under direct moral pressure even as Washington’s Iran standoff drives the regional escalation. Aoun’s warning also implicitly acknowledges that the danger of Lebanese involvement in a regional war is now a live and proximate risk.

The multinational ceasefire committee — of which the US is a member — is scheduled to meet next week, a meeting Hezbollah’s Abu Hamdan directly referenced in demanding decisive action.

🔴 BREAKING #7 — US TIGHTENS HEZBOLLAH FINANCIAL SANCTIONS: JOOD SARL GOLD NETWORK TARGETED

[UPI — confirmed Feb 18, 2026]

The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Jood SARL, a Lebanon-based company linked to Hezbollah’s gold trading network. The firm is accused of creating a chain of businesses to trade gold within Lebanon and internationally, converting Hezbollah’s gold reserves into liquid funds. The sanctions also extend to an Iran-based shipping network with connections involving Turkey and a Russian national based in Moscow.

This follows a pattern of intensifying US financial pressure on Hezbollah as it attempts to rebuild: the group has been limiting housing allowances and delaying payments to villagers whose homes were destroyed during the 2024 war, illustrating its growing inability to meet financial obligations. Sources close to Hezbollah told UPI that businessmen who were previously drawn to the group for financial gain are “distancing themselves” as the reputational and financial costs of association have risen sharply.

🔴 BREAKING #8 — HEZBOLLAH PHASE 2 REJECTION HOLDS: ARMY USING “UNDERSTANDINGS” APPROACH

[Ongoing from Feb 17-19 reporting, confirmed]

The core domestic security dynamic remains unchanged: Hezbollah has formally rejected the Lebanese government’s four-month Phase 2 disarmament timeline. Shi’ite ministers walked out of the cabinet session on Monday. Hezbollah’s Qassem has stated the demand for disarmament “serves the goals of Israeli aggression.” Separately, Hezbollah’s Qamati on Saturday explicitly connected Friday’s strikes to the disarmament process — using Israeli attacks as proof that disarmament under fire is unacceptable.

The Lebanese Army is proceeding with Phase 2 using a negotiated “understandings” approach rather than forced confrontation, as communicated to the Quintet on Thursday. The army is seizing discovered military facilities but avoiding broad search operations without prior negotiated agreement. This approach reduces immediate civil conflict risk but also significantly slows Phase 2 implementation.

Army Commander Haykal’s meetings with Parliament Speaker Berri (Amal Movement leader) are the key back-channel for managing Hezbollah resistance to Phase 2.

Rubio-Netanyahu Feb 28 meeting: The US Secretary of State’s scheduled visit to Netanyahu will include Iran but also likely Lebanon’s disarmament trajectory — an important diplomatic checkpoint.

🔴 BREAKING #9 — IDF SAYS STRIKES ARE RESPONSE TO ACTIVE HEZBOLLAH MISSILE PLANNING

[IDF official statement — confirmed]

The IDF stated explicitly that Hezbollah’s missile forces “were currently working to plan rocket and missile attacks against Israel” and that the operatives killed Friday were engaged in activities that “constitute a violation of the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon.” This is the IDF’s direct justification for the Bekaa strikes — framing them not as violation of the ceasefire but as enforcement of it against Hezbollah planning activity.

The IDF additionally confirmed strikes were launched from naval vessels — a new and significant operational dimension indicating Israel has expanded its Lebanon strike architecture beyond aircraft to include ship-based weapons systems.

Israel has now killed over 400 Hezbollah operatives and members of allied terror groups in Lebanon since the ceasefire, per Times of Israel citing IDF.

🔴 BREAKING #10 — RAMADAN DAY 4: FUNERALS IN BAALBEK, PROTESTS ONGOING, ECONOMIC CRISIS PERSISTS

[Multiple sources — confirmed]

Lebanon’s fourth day of Ramadan 2026 is marked by public funerals in Baalbek for Hezbollah commanders killed Friday, ongoing economic hardship from fuel and VAT increases, and the backdrop of one of the most dangerous regional security environments since the 2024 war. Palestinian refugee families in Ain al-Hilweh are observing Ramadan amid drone strike damage to their camp. Families in the Bekaa — from Riyaq to Bednayel — are mourning dead, including three children among the wounded, during the holy month.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX

Saturday, February 21, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 85/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ SHARPLY ELEVATED

Beirut woke Saturday to Hezbollah protests in the streets, Mahmoud Qamati’s “resistance is our only option” speech broadcast across Al-Manar, and the political shock of the deadliest Bekaa strikes since the ceasefire. The capital is navigating an acute convergence of crises: domestic Hezbollah pressure on the government to abandon disarmament, the Iran war countdown, and a Ramadan economic squeeze.

The “prominent political sources” call for Lebanon to declare formal neutrality — reported by Nidaa al-Watan — reflects deep anxiety among anti-Hezbollah political forces that IRGC-directed Hezbollah will ignore Lebanese state sovereignty and engage Israel independently if Iran is struck. President Aoun’s public statement demanding the US press Israel to halt attacks places the government in the position of criticising its main patron — a sign of the near-impossible position Aoun occupies.

The ceasefire oversight committee meeting next week takes on new urgency: Hezbollah’s Abu Hamdan has effectively issued an ultimatum that the committee must produce results. If it fails — as previous meetings have — pressure on Hezbollah restraint collapses further.

The Rubio-Netanyahu meeting scheduled for February 28 (one week away) is the next major diplomatic checkpoint. Outcomes there will directly determine Israeli operational posture toward Lebanon and Iran.

Key Factors Today: Hezbollah street protests; IRGC-Hezbollah control bombshell; neutrality demands from political establishment; Aoun’s US pressure appeal; ceasefire committee meeting imminent.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 79/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Mount Lebanon continues to absorb displaced southern populations with inadequate support. The economic crisis — fuel and VAT increases at the start of Ramadan — remains the primary daily hardship. Road-blocking protests from February 17 have largely subsided but underlying tensions remain.

The IRGC-Hezbollah intelligence disclosure creates new anxiety for Mount Lebanon’s mixed communities about whether Lebanon’s security environment can remain contained. The neutrality debate now being aired publicly is felt acutely in communities that suffered most in 2024 and desperately want to avoid a return to war.

Key Factor: Economic hardship Ramadan Day 4; displaced population crisis; IRGC-Hezbollah disclosure creating anxiety in mixed communities.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 79/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Tripoli remains economically devastated. A multi-storey apartment building collapse weeks ago (killing at least 14) reflects chronic infrastructure crisis. Fuel protests and the Ramadan economic squeeze compound an already desperate situation. The Syrian border dimension adds complexity: Lebanon-Syria tension over former Assad regime figures, and the new ISIS call-to-arms against Syria’s new government, create additional instability considerations for the north.

Key Factor: Infrastructure collapse crisis; Ramadan economic hardship; Syrian border complexity; chronically inadequate state support.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 82/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Akkar remains vulnerable on multiple dimensions: Syrian border instability, fuel crisis economic impact on Lebanon’s poorest governorate, and the potential for displacement surges if the Iran situation escalates and triggers broader Bekaa/south Lebanon conflict. The four Syrian border crossings bombed in January continue to suppress cross-border commerce essential to Akkar communities.

Key Factor: Syrian border disruption; fuel crisis on poorest Lebanese governorate; Iran escalation potential creating displacement risk.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 96/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ MOST DANGEROUS ESCALATION IN WEEKS

The Bekaa Valley is Lebanon’s most dangerous governorate today based on Friday’s events and Saturday’s intelligence disclosures.

Friday/Saturday strike assessment: The Bekaa was struck in the single deadliest post-ceasefire Israeli operation. Locations hit — Riyaq, Bednayel, Ali al-Nahri, Tamnine, Qsarnaba, Nabi Sheet — span the central Bekaa from north to south. The strikes were confirmed to have targeted an IRGC-supervised Hezbollah missile unit meeting — meaning IRGC officers may have been present at or near the strike site. Funeral processions in Nabi Sheet and a mass funeral in Baalbek are ongoing today.

IRGC operational presence: The Al-Arabiya/Al-Hadath intelligence report confirming IRGC officers are running Hezbollah in the Bekaa and personally managing war plans means the Bekaa Valley is not just a Hezbollah stronghold but an active IRGC operational theatre. This makes it a principal target for Israeli pre-emptive strikes if Iran is attacked.

Iran countdown: The Bekaa is ground zero for Hezbollah missile infrastructure, IRGC advisory networks, and Iran-linked arms smuggling routes from Syria. A US strike on Iran triggers IRGC orders to Hezbollah in the Bekaa to activate. Israel’s pre-emptive doctrine in this scenario means the Bekaa would be struck immediately.

Glyphosate/Chemical contamination: Agricultural land contamination continues to threaten farming communities’ Ramadan livelihoods.

DO NOT TRAVEL — EXTREME DANGER

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 95/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ CRITICAL — MASS FUNERAL TODAY

Baalbek-Hermel is at near-maximum danger today. A mass public funeral for Hezbollah commander Hussein Mohammad Yaghi and at least one other fighter is being held in Baalbek today, with hundreds in attendance waving Hezbollah flags — a deliberate display of armed group social power and grief that serves both mourning and political mobilisation.

Baalbek itself has been repeatedly struck since the ceasefire as Israel targets what it describes as missile infrastructure and command facilities. Friday’s strikes explicitly targeted “three command centers in the Baalbek area.” The IDF’s framing — that Hezbollah is actively “planning rocket and missile attacks” from these sites — justifies further strikes.

Hezbollah’s IRGC-supervised missile preparations are centred in Baalbek-Hermel. IRGC officers were meeting Hezbollah’s missile unit in the Bekaa — with Baalbek the most likely hub. Israel struck their meeting. More meetings will be scheduled; more strikes will follow.

DO NOT TRAVEL — EXTREME DANGER

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 76/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Keserwan-Jbeil faces economic pressure from fuel and VAT increases affecting tourism and commerce, but remains largely removed from the current kinetic threat environment. However, the Iran war scenario changes this: any regional escalation triggers Hezbollah response from Beirut’s southern suburbs, potentially drawing Israeli strikes into areas closer to this governorate. The IRGC-Hezbollah disclosure means Hezbollah’s operational footprint may be more geographically dispersed than currently visible.

Key Factor: Primarily economic pressure; distant from current kinetic threat zones but vulnerable to Iran escalation scenario.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 93/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ CRITICAL — REFUGEE CAMP STRUCK

South Lebanon’s threat environment remained at critical levels this week with the Ain al-Hilweh strike on Friday, near-daily Israeli operations, and the ongoing five-position occupation. Key current factors:

Ain al-Hilweh (Sidon): Friday’s drone strike on Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp — killing 2 and wounding multiple others in the Hittin neighbourhood — marks the second such strike in three months (November 2025 strike killed 13). The camp is densely populated; strikes on civilian-adjacent infrastructure create fear and humanitarian crisis among 50,000+ camp residents who are now Ramadan Day 4 observers in a damaged neighbourhood.

Ongoing south Lebanon operations: Near-daily Israeli drone, artillery, and ground operations continue across Tyre, Bint Jbeil, and Marjayoun Districts. Five Israeli-occupied positions remain, blocking civilian return to adjacent villages. Glyphosate-contaminated agricultural land near the Blue Line prevents farming communities from working their land.

Phase 2 Sidon corridor: The Lebanese Army’s Phase 2 disarmament — covering the area from the Litani to the Awali (Sidon) — is operating in this zone. However, Hezbollah’s formal rejection of the timeline and IRGC-supervised preparations create a fundamental contradiction between army disarmament efforts and Hezbollah’s actual direction of travel.

DO NOT TRAVEL — ACTIVE STRIKE ZONE

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 91/100 🔴 | Trend: Critical — Active Operations

Nabatieh remains a sustained active operations zone with near-daily Israeli drone and artillery activity across the Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, and Nabatieh districts. Ground incursions (Yaroun, Khiam on Thursday), stun grenade drops, and house demolitions continue as documented operations aimed at what Israel describes as ceasefire enforcement and what the mayor of Aita al-Shaab characterises as systematic forced displacement.

Of Aita al-Shaab’s original population of approximately 15,000, fewer than 52 residents remain. Similar population depletion is occurring across multiple Nabatieh villages.

Hezbollah’s Qamati speech today directly applies to Nabatieh communities who experience Israeli operations daily and are being asked by their government to accept army disarmament while attacks continue unabated.

DO NOT TRAVEL — ACTIVE STRIKE ZONE

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2026

🔥 THREAT TIERS — CONFIRMED ACTIVE

TIER 1 — ACTIVE KINETIC THREATS (RIGHT NOW):

1. Bekaa Valley (Riyaq, Bednayel, Ali al-Nahri, Tamnine, Qsarnaba, Nabi Sheet) — Site of Friday’s 12-killed, 50-wounded mass strike; cleanup operations underway; IRGC-supervised Hezbollah meetings were the target; further strikes highly probable
2. Baalbek city — Mass funeral today; commander’s funeral = high-profile gathering = potential Israeli targeting; elevated risk for anyone near Baalbek today
3. Ain al-Hilweh, Sidon — Two killed Friday; refugee camp under strike threat; second attack in three months
4. All Blue Line villages, South Lebanon/Nabatieh — Near-daily operations; ongoing ground incursions; glyphosate contamination zones

TIER 2 — IMMINENT ESCALATION RISKS: 5. Iran countdown (10-15 days from Feb 19 = March 1-4) — Trump’s deadline expires before March 5 Paris conference; military buildup complete “by this weekend” per US officials; Pentagon moving personnel out of region — standard pre-strike posture 6. IRGC-directed Hezbollah missile preparations — IRGC officers meeting Hezbollah missile units in Bekaa; Israel struck one such meeting Friday; more will occur; strike pattern will continue and intensify 7.

Hezbollah “resistance” declaration — Qamati’s speech today is the closest Hezbollah has come publicly to threatening retaliation since the November 2024 ceasefire; this is a significant threshold crossed 8. Pre-emptive Israeli Hezbollah strikes — Israeli media reports IDF has “prepared a plan to significantly strike Hezbollah” and conveyed to it that “if it decides to intervene, the blow will be very painful”; IDF may strike Bekaa pre-emptively before any Iran operation

TIER 3 — STRATEGIC HORIZON (NEXT 30 DAYS): 9. Rubio-Netanyahu meeting (February 28) — Direct coordination on Iran and Lebanon; outcomes will shape operational posture 10. Paris Conference (March 5) — International support for Lebanese Army; Macron-Aoun co-chairmanship; major fundraising and political moment — but may occur after Iran deadline expires 11. Ceasefire Committee meeting (next week) — Hezbollah has issued implicit ultimatum; outcome determines next Hezbollah posture escalation 12. Elections (May 10 — 78 days) — All political decisions now filtered through electoral calculus

⚠️ IRAN COUNTDOWN — CRITICAL SPECIAL ASSESSMENT: WHAT IT MEANS FOR LEBANON

DEADLINE: Trump’s 10-15 day ultimatum from February 19 = March 1-4, 2026 USS Ford arrival in operational position: Within days from today Pentagon personnel movement: Underway now, completing this weekend

If Iran is struck:

Hour 0-6: IRGC officers in Lebanon’s Bekaa direct Hezbollah missile units to activate; Israel launches pre-emptive strikes on Hezbollah Bekaa positions simultaneously; Lebanon’s ceasefire collapses entirely Hour 6-24: Hezbollah launches degraded but “qualitatively significant” missile arsenal toward northern Israel; IDF conducts air campaign across Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, Beirut southern suburbs; UNIFIL suspended operations Day 1-7: Lebanon experiences catastrophic civilian displacement — potentially exceeding 2024 figures of 1 million+ displaced; Beirut’s international airport status uncertain; road networks under strike threat Day 7+: Lebanon’s fragile institutions collapse under the weight of war; Paris conference unlikely to proceed; elections in May postponed

If Iran makes a deal: Iran-Hezbollah-Lebanon security situation stabilises. Israeli strike justification narrows. Phase 2 disarmament becomes more viable. Paris conference proceeds as planned. Still no guarantee of Israeli operational halt — IDF 91st Division commander said Israel stays “on the attack.”

CIS Security recommends all clients activate Iran-contingency emergency plans immediately. Do not wait.

📊 LEBANON STATUS DASHBOARD — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2026

📱 SECURITY GUIDANCE — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2026

🚫 ABSOLUTE NO-GO ZONES — DO NOT ENTER:

⚠️ HIGH CAUTION ZONES — AVOID IF POSSIBLE:

• Southern suburbs of Beirut (Hezbollah presence, pre-emptive strike risk in Iran scenario)
• Sidon city surroundings (Ain al-Hilweh strike proximity; Phase 2 corridor)
• Hermel area (Syria border; Hezbollah corridor)

🏠 FOR ALL RESIDENTS — IRAN SCENARIO PLANNING:

• Activate household emergency plan for potential rapid escalation
• Stock 72-hour emergency supplies (water, food, medication, documents)
• Identify safe shelter locations away from known Hezbollah infrastructure and military sites
• Register with your national embassy if you are a foreign national in Lebanon
• Monitor CIS Security and trusted news sources continuously

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• Suspend all non-essential operations in Bekaa Valley and South Lebanon immediately
• Review Iran-contingency business continuity plans — Trump deadline expires within 11 days
• Supply chain exposure in southern and Bekaa regions: identify alternatives now
• Paris conference (March 5) MAY bring investment signals — but only if Iran situation resolved before then
• Ceasefire committee meeting next week: monitor outcome for security trajectory signals

🌙 RAMADAN DAY 4 NOTE

Lebanon’s fourth day of Ramadan 2026 is spent:

• Mourning 12 dead in the Bekaa — including three children among the wounded
• Burying Hezbollah commanders in a mass funeral in Baalbek
• Treating 50+ wounded across Bekaa hospitals
• Processing the Ain al-Hilweh strike two days after Ramadan began
• Living through the fourth consecutive day of fuel and VAT-driven economic hardship
• Watching a US-Iran military countdown clock that could end the ceasefire entirely

The spirit of Ramadan as a time of peace, reflection, and community solidarity is being tested at a level that exceeds even the worst weeks of Ramadan 2024, during active war. CIS Security extends its deepest condolences to all families mourning losses from Friday’s strikes.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — PROFESSIONAL PROTECTION

Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company Since 1990

⚡ IMMEDIATE ADVISORY: ALL CLIENTS SHOULD ACTIVATE IRAN-CONTINGENCY PLANS NOW

The convergence of Friday’s deadliest Bekaa strikes since the ceasefire, the IRGC-Hezbollah operational control disclosure, Hezbollah’s “resistance is our only option” declaration, the USS Gerald R. Ford entering the Mediterranean, and Trump’s 10-15 day Iran deadline creates the most dangerous security environment in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire was signed.

CRITICAL SERVICES — CURRENT ENVIRONMENT:

Iran Escalation Emergency Response Scenario planning for US-Iran military action and Hezbollah response; immediate evacuation route assessment; shelter-in-place protocols; business continuity for catastrophic escalation scenario; pre-planned safe routes out of all Lebanese governorates

Bekaa/Baalbek Active Zone Management Real-time strike mapping — Riyaq, Bednayel, Ali al-Nahri, Tamnine, Qsarnaba, Nabi Sheet, Baalbek city; assessment of IRGC-supervised meeting locations; evacuation coordination; ongoing intelligence on Israeli naval strike architecture

IRGC-Hezbollah Intelligence Monitoring Operational pattern analysis of IRGC-directed Hezbollah missile preparations; pre-strike warning assessment; geographic risk mapping of IRGC advisory presence across Lebanon

Hezbollah Posture Tracking Continuous monitoring of Qamati/Qassem statements; threshold analysis of retaliation probability; liaison with Lebanese Armed Forces and diplomatic missions

Ramadan Community Protection Mosque and iftar gathering security in elevated-risk zones; funeral protection in Baalbek (today’s mass funeral); displacement family security coordination

Paris Conference Preparation (March 5) Pre-conference security assessment; Lebanese Army coordination tracking; international delegation protection planning

📞 CONTACT CIS SECURITY — 24/7

Emergency Hotline: +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net Services: Protective detail | Crisis intelligence | Route security | Emergency evacuation | Iran-contingency planning | Business continuity | Community protection

⚠️ CRITICAL OPERATIONAL NOTICE — FEBRUARY 21, 2026

🔴 MAXIMUM ALERT — INDEX 92/100 — HIGHEST RECORDED

Three simultaneous threat drivers are active right now:

1. IRGC now running Hezbollah — missile preparations active in Bekaa; IRGC officers personally directing war plans; Friday’s strikes hit an IRGC-supervised meeting
2. Trump Iran countdown — 10-15 days from February 19 = March 1-4; USS Ford entering operational position; Pentagon pre-positioning suggests attack window this week-weekend
3. Hezbollah “resistance only” declaration — Qamati’s Saturday speech crossed a rhetorical threshold not seen since the ceasefire; Hezbollah funeral in Baalbek today is a public mobilisation event

The window between now and the Rubio-Netanyahu meeting (Feb 28) and the Paris Conference (March 5) is the most dangerous period Lebanon has faced since November 2024. CIS Security urges all clients to treat this as an active pre-war environment requiring immediate and decisive security planning.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — Saturday, February 21, 2026 | Ramadan Day 4 Compiled from verified sources: AFP, AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, Naharnet, Euronews, NBC News, France24, The National, Al-Monitor, CBS News, ABC News, Xinhua, FDD Long War Journal, Jerusalem Post, Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, UPI, Al-Arabiya/Al-Hadath (via Times of Israel), BICOM, Crisis Group, Wikipedia. All events cited are verified from named, credible news organisations. Index updated Saturday, February 21, 2026.