🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Feb 23 2026

Monday, February 23, 2026 | Ramadan Day 6

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL — MAXIMUM ALERT OVERALL INDEX: 95/100 TREND: ⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING

HEADLINE TODAY:

🚨 US ORDERS BEIRUT EMBASSY EVACUATION — IRAN WAR IMMINENT THREAT — BEKAA MASS CASUALTY STRIKES (12+ DEAD) — IRGC NOW RUNNING HEZBOLLAH — ANSAR/ZARARIYEH NORTH LITANI STRUCK TODAY — ELECTION POSTPONEMENT DEBATE ERUPTS — LEBANON GOLD RESERVES CRISIS

CIS SECURITY NOTE: This edition covers the full period since our last update (Thursday February 19) through today, Monday February 23. The situation has deteriorated dramatically across every front. The US Embassy ordered departure issued this morning is the single most serious indicator of imminent war risk Lebanon has seen since the 2024 ceasefire. All clients should move immediately to emergency contingency protocols.

🚨 TIER 1 — BREAKING RIGHT NOW: MONDAY FEBRUARY 23, 2026

🔴 #1 — BREAKING NOW: US STATE DEPARTMENT ORDERS EVACUATION OF BEIRUT EMBASSY — IRAN STRIKE IMMINENT

[AP, PBS, CBS News, Haaretz — Published this morning, confirmed within last 3 hours]

In the most alarming development of the post-ceasefire period, the United States State Department has today ordered all nonessential diplomats and their family members to leave Lebanon immediately. Approximately 50 embassy staff are affected. The US Embassy in Beirut remains operational with essential personnel only.

A senior State Department official confirmed the move is a “temporary measure” and that the embassy will remain operational. The official stated: “We continuously assess the security environment, and based on our latest review, we determined it prudent to reduce our footprint to essential personnel.”

This is a war bellwether of the highest magnitude. According to multiple news sources — confirmed by AP, CBS, PBS, Haaretz — a similar ordered departure was imposed for Beirut and other regional embassies including Iraq immediately before President Trump ordered US military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities last June (2025). The US has now taken the identical preparatory step. In addition:

• American KC-135 air refueling tankers and C-17 cargo aircraft were photographed at Ben Gurion Airport today (February 23), consistent with preparations for sustained long-range air operations
• Two US aircraft carrier strike groups — USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford — are now in the region simultaneously
• 50+ advanced US fighter jets including F-35s and F-22s have been repositioned closer to the region
• Additional THAAD and Patriot batteries deployed
• US President Trump stated last week he was “considering limited initial strikes on Iran” to pressure Tehran on nuclear concessions
• Iran’s Foreign Minister claimed a deal is “imminent” but Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire military drills during ongoing Geneva nuclear talks — a provocative signal
• Serbia, followed by other nations, has urged its citizens in Iran to leave immediately

For Lebanon, this is not background noise. This is the most direct pre-conflict signal seen since 2024. The US Embassy evacuation from Beirut is the Lebanese equivalent of the fire alarm going off in the building.

🔴 #2 — TODAY: ANSAR AND AL-ZARARIYEH STRUCK — NORTH OF LITANI IN PHASE 2 ZONE

[Lebanon LiveUAMap — Confirmed today, February 23]

Israeli warplanes struck the area between Ansar and Al-Zarariyeh, north of the Litani River, today with two raids — with columns of smoke and flames rising. This is inside the Phase 2 disarmament corridor (Litani to Awali). The Lebanese Army has formally started Phase 2 operations in this exact corridor.

President Aoun today condemned the strikes, stating they “reflect a disregard for the will of the international community and UN resolutions, specifically Resolution 1701.” He declared the raids “a hostile act that undermines efforts to stabilize the region.” The IDF stated it killed Hezbollah operatives “working to accelerate their preparations to carry out attacks.”

The central contradiction of Lebanon’s situation is now playing out in real time: The Lebanese Army is attempting to implement Phase 2 disarmament north of the Litani. Israel is simultaneously striking those same areas — providing Hezbollah’s argument for refusing disarmament with fresh daily evidence.

🔴 #3 — TODAY: HEZBOLLAH COMMANDER HUSSEIN YAGHI DEATH CONFIRMED; BEKAA GOVERNOR REPORTS 9 DEAD, 40 WOUNDED

[LiveUAMap Feb 23; Euronews, Al Jazeera Feb 20-21 — Confirmed today]

Hezbollah today confirmed the death of commander Hussein Yaghi — son of Mohammed Yaghi, a Hezbollah founder and close aide of assassinated leader Hassan Nasrallah — in the February 20 Bekaa Valley strikes. The Governor of Baalbek-Hermel today placed the cumulative toll from that wave of strikes at 9 dead and 40 wounded. Earlier reports from the Ministry of Health had confirmed 10 dead and 24 wounded including three children.

📅 CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19 → MONDAY FEBRUARY 23

All events verified from named credible sources. Presented chronologically.

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20 — BEKAA MASS CASUALTY STRIKE: 12 DEAD, 50+ WOUNDED

[Reuters, Al Jazeera, Euronews, AP, Al-Monitor — all confirmed]

In the deadliest single-day strike in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire, Israeli warplanes and naval vessels simultaneously struck six locations across the Bekaa Valley Friday evening:

• Riyaq — A residential building completely destroyed; 10+ dead, 30+ wounded from this strike alone. Rayak Hospital received 10 bodies; 21 people treated for injuries. Two of the dead were non-Lebanese (a Syrian man and an Ethiopian woman); eight wounded were foreign nationals including five Syrians and three Ethiopians
• Bednayel — Residential building struck; families displaced
• Qasrnaba — Agricultural plains struck
• Sahl Tamneen (Tamnin al-Tahta) — Plain struck; building on outskirts destroyed near a gas bottling plant
• Nabi Sheet (Shaara area) — Three airstrikes on eastern mountain foothills

Total confirmed: At least 10-12 killed, 50+ wounded. Reuters confirmed via two security sources. Al-Monitor confirmed a senior Hezbollah official among the dead. The IDF stated it struck “Hezbollah command centres in the Baalbek area.” Hezbollah confirmed three local commanders killed: Ali al-Moussawi, Mohammed al-Moussawi, and Hussein Yaghi (commander, son of Hezbollah founder Mohammed Yaghi). Three killed were described as local commanders.

Simultaneously on February 20: Israel struck the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp (Ain al-Hilweh) on the outskirts of Sidon — Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp — killing 2 people and wounding several others. Israel claimed it targeted a Hamas command centre in the Hittin neighbourhood. Hamas condemned the attack as causing civilian casualties.

This was a multi-front, multi-weapon coordinated strike wave: airplanes and naval vessels simultaneously, across south and east Lebanon. It is the most lethal single day since the ceasefire.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21 — HEZBOLLAH DECLARES “ONLY RESISTANCE”; IRGC TAKEOVER CONFIRMED; AOUN CONDEMNS

[Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post, Al Arabiya, AFP — confirmed]

Senior Hezbollah political leader and Lebanese MP Mahmoud Qamati gave a formal public statement at a protest in Beirut broadcast on Al-Manar: “What happened yesterday in the Beqaa is a new massacre and a new aggression, exceeding all the previous levels of aggression against Lebanon. What option do we have left to defend ourselves and our country? What option do we have other than resistance? We no longer have any other option.” This is Hezbollah’s most explicit public threat of re-escalation since the ceasefire.

IRGC HAS TAKEN COMMAND OF HEZBOLLAH — In a bombshell intelligence report published February 21, sources cited by Saudi outlets Al Arabiya and Al Hadath revealed that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively taken operational control of Hezbollah. IRGC officers — some of whom recently arrived in Lebanon from Iran — are:

• Tasked with rebuilding Hezbollah’s military capabilities
• Personally briefing Hezbollah fighters across Lebanon
• Managing and executing strategic war plans
• Meeting with Hezbollah’s missile unit in the Bekaa (the site bombed by Israel that same night)

The Jerusalem Post confirmed: IRGC officers are “not only supervising the rebuilding of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure but are also personally managing and executing strategic war plans.” This effectively means Iran is operating a direct military command presence in Lebanon.

Lebanese President Aoun’s response (February 21 statement): Condemned the February 20 strikes as “a blatant act of aggression aimed at thwarting diplomatic efforts” by the US and other nations. Said it “constitutes a new violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and a clear breach of international obligations.” Noted Israel’s “disregard for the will of the international community, particularly UN resolutions calling for full implementation of Resolution 1701.”

Lebanese political figures calling for neutrality: The anti-Hezbollah Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan cited “prominent political sources” stating Beirut must declare neutrality in case of a US-Iran war and refuse to let Hezbollah drag Lebanon into conflict.

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22 — LEBANON GOLD RESERVE DEBATE; HEZBOLLAH FINANCING CRISIS; IRGC $1 BILLION TRANSFER

[Financial Times (via OneNewsPage), FDD Long War Journal, ITIC — confirmed]

Lebanon’s government is now openly debating selling its national gold reserves to rescue the banking sector. The Financial Times reported Monday that Lebanon’s central bank holds approximately $45 billion worth of gold bullion but that wary citizens are deeply skeptical about a sale — given Lebanon’s history of financial mismanagement and the 2019-2020 banking collapse that wiped out ordinary depositors.

The Hezbollah gold angle is critical: US Treasury sanctions in the week of February 9-16 targeted a Lebanese company — Jood SARL — established by Hezbollah’s financial arm Al-Qard al-Hasan (AQAH) to convert Hezbollah’s gold reserves into liquid cash. Gold prices have surged from $2,700/oz at the start of the 2024 Israeli campaign to over $5,000/oz today — making Hezbollah’s gold hoard an enormous potential financing instrument for reconstruction and rearmament. FDD’s Long War Journal described Treasury’s action as frustrating “the perfect cover” Hezbollah had constructed by obtaining a government license for Jood SARL.

IRGC $1 billion pipeline confirmed: The US Treasury Department reported that Iran’s IRGC Qods Force transferred approximately $1 billion to Hezbollah since the beginning of 2025 for military reconstruction, channeled through currency-exchange agencies and cash businesses. Funds continue flowing through Turkey, the UAE, and by sea despite the Lebanon-Iran direct flight ban.

OVERALL CUMULATIVE TOLL UPDATE — AS OF FEBRUARY 23, 2026

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MONDAY FEBRUARY 23, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 88/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING | Change from Feb 19: +5

The US Embassy ordered departure announced this morning changes everything for Beirut. The capital is now in the pre-conflict warning environment that immediately preceded US military strikes against Iran last June 2025. The combination of:

• US Embassy evacuation of ~50 non-essential staff
• US KC-135 refuelers spotted at Ben Gurion Airport today
• Two carrier groups in the region simultaneously
• Trump stating he is “considering limited initial strikes” on Iran
• Israeli forces on maximum alert on Lebanon’s border
• IRGC now directly commanding Hezbollah in Lebanon
• Hezbollah declaring “resistance” is the only remaining option

…creates the most dangerous pre-escalation environment Beirut has seen since September 2024.

Politically: The election postponement debate has exploded into public view. Foreign ambassadors in Beirut have reportedly conveyed to Lebanese leaders a preference for postponing parliamentary elections one to two years — citing US-Iran negotiations trajectory and regional instability. This is being resisted by Lebanese reformists who see elections as critical to rebalancing Hezbollah’s political power. The debate itself is a destabilising factor.

Israel Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar (confirmed February 23) called Lebanon’s Phase 2 disarmament efforts “far from sufficient” — signaling continued Israeli military pressure regardless of Lebanese compliance.

Paris Conference (March 5, 13 days away): President Aoun confirmed co-chairing alongside Macron. This is the most important diplomatic event of the coming period but is now overshadowed by the Iran war risk.

Key Factors Today: US Embassy evacuation; Iran strike imminent threat; election postponement debate; Paris Conference 13 days away; IRGC operational in Lebanon.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ Escalating | Change from Feb 19: +2

Mount Lebanon’s elevated risk today comes primarily from the regional Iran escalation factor rather than direct kinetic threats. However, Hezbollah’s southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahiyeh) — within Mount Lebanon’s vicinity — would be an early Israeli strike priority in any wider escalation. Israeli intelligence has previously destroyed dozens of Hezbollah sites in Dahiyeh; new IRGC-directed reconstruction there makes it a target again.

Displaced families from the south continue arriving with inadequate support. Ramadan Day 6 economic pressures persist. Road protest activity has de-escalated from its February 17-18 peak but underlying economic grievances remain unresolved.

Key Factor: Regional Iran escalation threat and proximity of Dahiyeh strike risk; displacement support inadequacy ongoing.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Tripoli remains in deep economic distress. The building collapse crisis (14 dead in a recent collapse) reflects chronic infrastructure decay. Fuel protest anger has partially subsided but economic fundamentals are unchanged.

The Syria border situation continues to evolve: Lebanon-Syria relations are cautiously warming as the new Syrian government under Ahmed al-Sharaa (HTS) seeks to normalise relations. However, former Assad regime figures in Lebanon — allegedly planning destabilisation of Syria — remain a complicating factor. Lebanese Army border operations at northern crossings continue.

Gold reserve debate is acutely relevant to northern Lebanon where ordinary depositors — many still unable to access bank accounts frozen since 2019 — hope any gold sale would translate into compensation. Deep popular skepticism prevails.

Key Factor: Economic devastation, Syria border complexity; gold reserve debate affecting northern depositor communities.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 82/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ Elevating

Akkar’s Syria border exposure elevates its risk today. Israeli strikes on Syrian territory (IRGC missile depot destruction reported today in the Yazd mountainous area of Iran per LiveUAMap) and the broader US-Iran military build-up create cross-border spillover risk. Lebanese Army border operations continue.

The January 22 Israeli bombing of four Syria-Lebanon border crossings continues to disrupt Akkar’s cross-border agricultural and commercial economy during Ramadan.

Key Factor: Syria border escalation risk; Lebanon among most economically vulnerable to US-Iran conflict spillover via northeastern border corridors.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 96/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ MAXIMUM ESCALATION — ACTIVE WAR ZONE

The Bekaa Valley is today the most dangerous non-active-war zone in the Middle East outside Gaza. Multiple simultaneous crises at unprecedented intensity:

February 20 Mass Casualty Strike: The coordinated Israeli airstrike and naval strike wave on Riyaq, Bednayel, Qasrnaba, Sahl Tamneen, and Nabi Sheet killed at least 10-12 people and wounded 50+, including three children. Buildings in Riyaq and Bednayel were completely destroyed. This was the deadliest single day in Lebanon since the ceasefire.

IRGC Command Presence: IRGC officers are confirmed to be meeting Hezbollah missile unit personnel in the Bekaa — the exact sites being targeted by Israel. This makes every Hezbollah facility in the Bekaa a potential strike target at any time. Civilians in adjacent buildings — as seen in Riyaq — pay the price.

IRGC Infrastructure in Iran Being Struck: LiveUAMap reports today that IRGC bases and missile depots in mountainous Yazd province of Iran are being targeted by “intense Israeli airstrikes” — an indication the Iran conflict has already partially begun and that Hezbollah’s Iranian backers are under direct attack.

Phase 2 Disarmament Complexity: The Bekaa is planned as Phase 3 or 4 in the army’s disarmament map. Hezbollah’s deep community and infrastructure presence here — now under IRGC operational control — makes it essentially unreachable for negotiated disarmament in the near term.

Glyphosate/Chemical Contamination: Confirmed agricultural land contamination from February 1 spraying continues to affect Bekaa Valley farming communities unable to safely work contaminated land during Ramadan.

Hezbollah Gold-for-Reconstruction: US Treasury-sanctioned Jood SARL was set up specifically to liquidate Hezbollah’s Bekaa-area gold reserves at $5,000/oz — the financing backbone of Hezbollah’s military reconstruction, now blocked by US sanctions.

Key Factor: DEADLIEST zone in Lebanon. Mass casualty strikes (Feb 20). IRGC operational presence confirmed. Iran war risk makes Bekaa a pre-conflict frontline. Maximum avoidance.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 97/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ MAXIMUM — DO NOT ENTER

Baalbek-Hermel is today at 97/100 — the highest index reading CIS has issued for any Lebanese governorate. This governorate is:

• The spiritual and operational heart of Hezbollah in Lebanon
• Under IRGC direct operational control (officers confirmed present, meeting missile units here)
• Targeted in the February 20 mass casualty strikes (Riyaq, Bednayel, Nabi Sheet all in this governorate or immediate border area)
• The governor confirmed 9 dead and 40 wounded from Friday’s strikes — among Lebanon’s worst single-incident tolls since the ceasefire
• The primary Iranian weapons corridor into Lebanon via Syria
• Now being struck not just by air but by Israeli naval vessels simultaneously

Hezbollah MP Mahmoud Qamati’s declaration that “resistance is the only option remaining” was made specifically in the context of the Baalbek massacre. This is the region from which any Hezbollah military re-mobilisation would originate in an Iran war scenario.

Funeral processions for the three named Hezbollah commanders (Ali al-Moussawi, Mohammed al-Moussawi, Hussein Yaghi) were held in Nabi Sheet with Hezbollah military ceremony — a public demonstration of the organisation’s continued functional capacity despite losses.

Key Factor: DO NOT ENTER. Active strike zone. IRGC command presence. Israel striking with air and naval assets simultaneously. Highest risk score CIS has issued.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 77/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Less directly exposed to current kinetic threats but faces significant risk from potential Iran escalation spillover — Israeli pre-emptive strikes on Hezbollah positions in the Mount Lebanon coastal corridor would affect this governorate. Economic pressures from Ramadan and fuel costs continue. Gold reserve debate is relevant to communities with bank-frozen assets.

Key Factor: Elevated regional spillover risk; economic pressure continuing.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 95/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ CRITICAL | Change from Feb 19: +1

South Lebanon remains at near-maximum danger. Today’s Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes (north of Litani, Phase 2 zone) demonstrate that Israel’s strike campaign now runs from the Blue Line all the way to the Awali corridor — the full length of Phase 2 disarmament territory.

Ongoing from prior period:

• Five Israeli-occupied strategic positions: still held; no withdrawal
• Glyphosate contamination: Blue Line agricultural zone remains contaminated; farming communities cannot safely return
• Systematic house demolitions in Yaroun, Khiam (confirmed Feb 19): continue
• Stun grenade operations (Odaysseh, Aita al-Shaab): ongoing
• Aita al-Shaab: 52 of 15,000 original residents remain — deliberate displacement strategy confirmed by mayor

Phase 2 launch: Lebanese Army has formally begun Phase 2 operations in the Litani-to-Awali corridor. Israel continues striking this same corridor. The army’s “understandings approach” — negotiated compliance rather than forced confrontation — is being challenged daily by Israeli kinetic operations that validate Hezbollah’s narrative.

Lebanese Army Phase 2 status update: Israeli Foreign Minister Sa’ar declared on February 22-23 that Lebanon’s disarmament efforts are “far from sufficient” — signaling continued Israeli military pressure regardless of Lebanese progress. This is a direct rejection of Lebanese Army Phase 2 as adequate.

Key Factor: Active Phase 2 disarmament zone under simultaneous Israeli strikes; five occupied positions; chemical contamination; displacement operations; Ansar/Zarariyeh struck today.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 93/100 🔴 | Trend: Critical-Active

Nabatieh’s Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, and Nabatieh districts continue experiencing near-daily Israeli drone, artillery and airstrike operations. The Lebanese Army Phase 2 zone encompasses the corridor directly north of this governorate. Hezbollah’s community presence in Nabatieh — under IRGC advisory — creates a direct friction environment for army disarmament operations.

The systematic house demolition strategy (Yaroun, Khiam confirmed Feb 19) continues to render villages uninhabitable. Aita al-Shaab’s 52 remaining residents face continuous stun grenade harassment.

Key Factor: Near-daily operations; Phase 2 friction zone immediately north; Hezbollah-IRGC presence increasing confrontation risk.

🎯 INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — MONDAY FEBRUARY 23, 2026

🔥 CURRENT THREAT MATRIX

⚠️ IRAN WAR RISK — MAXIMUM SPECIAL ASSESSMENT

THIS IS NOW THE DOMINANT THREAT TO LEBANON’S EXISTENCE AS A FUNCTIONING STATE.

The US Embassy evacuation of Beirut — issued this morning, February 23 — is not a precautionary measure. It is an operational preparatory step with an established historical precedent: the identical measure was taken immediately before US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last June 2025.

The escalation chain for Lebanon if US-Iran war begins:

1. Hours 0-24: Israel conducts pre-emptive strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon (Bekaa, Dahiyeh, south Lebanon) to prevent Hezbollah from opening a second front while Iran is struck. IRGC-commanded Hezbollah units would be the primary targets.
2. Hours 24-72: Hezbollah — under IRGC command with orders to fight if Iran is attacked — faces maximum pressure to respond. Hezbollah’s Qassem stated in January: “Any attack on Tehran is an attack on us.” IRGC officers now in Lebanon are specifically tasked with preparing for this scenario.
3. Week 1-2: If Hezbollah responds, full ceasefire collapse. Lebanon re-enters open war. 64,000 currently displaced becomes potentially hundreds of thousands. Reconstruction (already blocked) becomes impossible.
4. Month 1+: Lebanon’s fragile state institutions — army, government, central bank — face impossible pressures. Paris Conference (March 5) becomes irrelevant. Elections (May 10) become impossible. Lebanon’s recovery timeline resets by years.

The Iranian side: Iran has held live-fire military drills, closed the Strait of Hormuz temporarily, and simultaneously signalled a deal is “imminent.” This dual-track posture (military threat + diplomatic flexibility) is Tehran’s classic negotiating pattern. Whether a deal is reached in the next 72-96 hours will determine Lebanon’s trajectory more than any domestic political development.

US-Iran talks continue Thursday (this week). The next round is critical.

CIS SECURITY ASSESSMENT: PROBABILITY OF SOME FORM OF US MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN IN THE NEXT 7-14 DAYS: ELEVATED (40-60%). IF IT OCCURS, PROBABILITY OF HEZBOLLAH RE-ENGAGEMENT AND LEBANON WAR: SIGNIFICANT (30-50%).

All clients must have emergency plans active today.

🗳️ ELECTION POSTPONEMENT DEBATE — NEW DESTABILISING FACTOR

[Tehran Times — Published today, February 23]

A major new political crisis has emerged publicly: foreign ambassadors in Beirut have privately conveyed to Lebanese leaders a preference for postponing parliamentary elections (May 10) by one to two years. This is now being publicly reported and debated.

The justification given by foreign officials: Lebanon’s internal fragility, ongoing US-Israeli military pressure, and the sensitive phase of US-Iran nuclear talks mean a contested election would be “destabilising.” President Trump recently made vague remarks about “working on Lebanon’s problems,” widely interpreted in Beirut as linking Lebanon’s political file to broader regional bargaining.

French and Saudi envoys have reportedly encouraged at least a one-year parliamentary term extension.

The dilemma: Postponement requires the government’s resignation under Lebanon’s constitution and would disrupt the Salam government’s reform momentum. But holding elections while under daily Israeli strikes, potential Iran war, Hezbollah disarmament confrontation, and economic collapse may produce outcomes that freeze Lebanon’s recovery — particularly if Hezbollah and Amal perform well (which municipal elections earlier suggested they would).

This debate is now a live destabilising factor. Whether Lebanon votes May 10 or postpones is no longer a procedural question — it is a central strategic decision about Lebanon’s political trajectory.

💰 LEBANON GOLD RESERVE CRISIS

[Financial Times — Published today February 23; FDD Long War Journal Feb 9-16]

Lebanon’s government is publicly debating selling its $45 billion gold reserve — the central bank’s primary remaining asset — to fund banking sector restructuring and depositor compensation. Citizens are deeply skeptical given Lebanon’s track record.

The Hezbollah gold dimension adds complexity: US Treasury has sanctioned Hezbollah’s Jood SARL — a government-licensed company — for attempting to liquidate Hezbollah’s own gold reserves (taken from AQAH bank branches) at today’s $5,000/oz prices to fund military reconstruction. Gold prices have nearly doubled since the 2024 war. Any Lebanese government gold sale happens against this backdrop of parallel Hezbollah gold monetisation efforts being blocked by US sanctions.

For ordinary Lebanese depositors — particularly in Tripoli and northern Lebanon where banking collapse devastated communities — any gold sale that does not directly compensate depositors will generate major civil unrest.

📱 EMERGENCY SECURITY GUIDANCE — FEBRUARY 23, 2026

🔴 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — IRAN WAR SCENARIO — ACT TODAY

ALL RESIDENTS AND EXPATRIATES IN LEBANON MUST:

1. Review and activate personal emergency plans immediately. The US Embassy has just evacuated non-essential staff. This is the most serious warning available.
2. Know your evacuation route. Primary: Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport. Monitor airport status hourly — in any Iran conflict, airspace may close with minimal notice. Secondary: sea evacuation from Jounieh or Beirut ports; land evacuation via Masnaa (monitor border crossing status carefully given prior bombing).
3. Have 72-hour emergency kit ready: water, non-perishable food, medications, essential documents (passports, copies of IDs), cash in USD, phone chargers and power banks, battery-powered radio.
4. Identify shelter-in-place locations. In Beirut: reinforced lower floors away from glass; avoid southern suburbs (Dahiyeh). In south Lebanon and Bekaa: evacuate immediately rather than shelter-in-place.
5. Monitor CIS Security alerts and national emergency channels continuously.

🏠 BY GOVERNORATE — TODAY’S GUIDANCE:

BAALBEK-HERMEL: ❌ EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY. Do not remain. IRGC presence + post-mass casualty strike environment + Iran war trigger zone = existential risk.

BEQAA VALLEY: ❌ EVACUATE OR DO NOT ENTER. Active strike zone. Mass casualties February 20. IRGC operational. Any Iran escalation makes this a priority Israeli strike zone within hours.

SOUTH LEBANON (all of it): ❌ DO NOT ENTER / DO NOT REMAIN. Phase 2 zone under active Israeli strikes today (Ansar-Zarariyeh). Five occupied Israeli positions. Blue Line glyphosate contamination. Systematic displacement operations ongoing.

NABATIEH: ❌ DO NOT ENTER. Near-daily Israeli operations. Army-Hezbollah friction risk. House demolitions continuing.

BEIRUT: ⚠️ HIGH ALERT. US Embassy evacuation is a red-line warning. If Iran conflict begins, Israeli strikes on Dahiyeh may be immediate. Avoid southern suburbs entirely. Have evacuation plan ready. Monitor airport status.

MOUNT LEBANON: ⚠️ HIGH CAUTION. Monitor situation hourly. Dahiyeh proximity risk. Have emergency plan active.

NORTH LEBANON/TRIPOLI, AKKAR, KESERWAN-JBEIL: ⚠️ MONITOR CLOSELY. Currently lower direct risk but regional escalation will affect all governorates. Syria border crossings should be avoided.

🏢 BUSINESS CONTINUITY — IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:

• Iran war scenario business continuity plan must be activated today. The US Embassy evacuation is your trigger.
• Suspend non-essential operations in Bekaa and South Lebanon immediately.
• Secure critical assets and documentation at all locations.
• Reduce staff footprint in high-risk zones — allow remote work where possible.
• Review supplier and logistics chains — Bekaa-dependent supply will be disrupted.
• Contact CIS Security immediately for bespoke emergency planning.

🚗 TRAVEL STATUS — FEBRUARY 23, 2026:

📊 FULL LEBANON STATUS DASHBOARD — FEBRUARY 23, 2026

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — EMERGENCY OPERATIONS: FEBRUARY 23, 2026

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company | 35+ Years Crisis Experience

🚨 EMERGENCY SERVICES — ACTIVATED TODAY:

Iran War Scenario Emergency Planning Full emergency contingency planning for US-Iran military conflict; evacuation route mapping; shelter-in-place protocols; airport and port monitoring; 24/7 situation tracking

Bekaa & Baalbek-Hermel Evacuation Support Immediate extraction planning from active strike zones; convoy escort; safe house coordination; medical emergency liaison

Beirut Embassy Quarter & Downtown Monitoring Real-time security assessment as US Embassy reduces footprint; tracking of diplomatic community movements as escalation indicators; alternative safe zone identification

Phase 2 Disarmament Intelligence Lebanese Army Phase 2 operations tracking; Hezbollah friction point mapping; Ansar-Zarariyeh corridor monitoring; daily intelligence for businesses operating in Phase 2 zone

Ramadan Community Security Protection for iftar gatherings, mosque attendance, and community events in elevated-risk zones during Ramadan Days 6 onward; family security consulting

Business Continuity Emergency Support Immediate business continuity activation; asset protection; staff evacuation planning; supply chain alternative routing

📞 CONTACT CIS SECURITY — NOW

🚨 24/7 Emergency Hotline: +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net All Lebanese Governorates | Immediate Response | 35+ Years Experience

⚠️ CRITICAL FINAL NOTICE — FEBRUARY 23, 2026

The United States has just ordered the evacuation of non-essential embassy staff from Beirut. This is the same action taken immediately before US strikes on Iran last June. CIS Security urges all clients to treat this as an active pre-conflict warning, not a precautionary measure.

Iran-US nuclear talks continue Thursday. The next 72 hours are critical for Lebanon’s trajectory.

All clients: Emergency plans must be active now. Contact CIS Security immediately.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Monday February 23, 2026 | Ramadan Day 6 | Index: 95/100 🔴 MAXIMUM ALERT

Verified sources: AP (US Embassy evacuation — published today); PBS NewsHour (US Embassy ordered departure — today); CBS News (US Embassy Beirut — today); Haaretz (US Embassy departure — today); Times of Israel liveblog (Feb 21-23); Euronews (Bekaa strikes — Feb 21); Reuters/Al-Monitor (10 killed Bekaa — Feb 20); Al Jazeera (12 killed — Feb 20; glyphosate; phase 2); Jerusalem Post (IRGC takeover — Feb 21); Al Arabiya/Al Hadath (IRGC command of Hezbollah — Feb 21);

Lebanon LiveUAMap (Ansar/Zarariyeh today; Baalbek-Hermel governor — today); Tehran Times (election postponement debate — today, Feb 23); Financial Times via OneNewsPage (Lebanon gold — today, Feb 23); FDD Long War Journal (Jood SARL gold sanctions — Feb 9-16); ITIC/terrorism-info.org.il (Feb 9-16 weekly report); GlobalSecurity.org (Bekaa strikes); Yemen Press Agency (Feb 20 strikes); National Herald India (12 dead Lebanon); The Week India (IRGC Hezbollah); MCI Group/Anadolu (Riyaq death toll); Wikipedia (2026 Lebanese elections); House of Commons Library; Al Jazeera features (Aoun’s tightrope). All events verified from named credible sources. Updated 14:00 Beirut time, Monday February 23, 2026.