CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – May 25 2026

Sunday, May 25, 2026

⚠️ CEASEFIRE DAY 39 — WAR DAY 85

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🟡 ACTIVELY DETERIORATING OVERALL INDEX: 72/100 TREND: ⬇️ SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION — 3 KILLED TODAY; 10 NEW IDF EVACUATION ORDERS (NABATIEH AL-TAHTA, AL-LOUIZEH, SAJD, AIN QANA, HAROUF, ZIBDIN, KFAR REMAN, DOUEIR, ADSHIT AL-SHAQIF, MAYDUN); TYRE: 2 HOMES DESTROYED IN ARZOUN; DEIR QANOUN EN-NAHR HOUSE COMPLETELY DESTROYED; SEIR AL-GHARBIYA: 9 KILLED IN RESIDENTIAL BUILDING; CIVIL DEFENCE TEAM STRUCK IN KFAR DURING RESCUE OPS; PENTAGON TRACK MAY 29 — 4 DAYS; JUNE 2–3 TALKS — 8 DAYS

⚠️ CEASEFIRE STATUS — DAY 39: COMPREHENSIVE UPDATE

TODAY IS DAY 85 OF THE WAR AND DAY 39 OF THE CEASEFIRE.

Al Jazeera published a comprehensive update today confirming the following for May 25:

At least 3 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon today, with the IDF having issued 10 fresh forced displacement orders for villages primarily in the Nabatieh district — the most comprehensive set of evacuation orders in a single wave since early May. The targets listed by IDF Arabic spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee are: Nabatieh al-Tahta, al-Louizeh, Sajd, Ain Qana, Harouf, Zibdin, Kfar Reman, Doueir, Adshit al-Shaqif, and Maydun. The IDF statement: “Citing Hezbollah’s violation of the ceasefire agreement, Israeli forces are compelled to operate against it with force.”

In the Tyre district, an Israeli attack destroyed two homes in the Arzoun municipality — rescue teams deployed to evacuate the injured.

Additional May 23 casualties now confirmed (from updated Al Jazeera reporting): The full toll from the May 22–23 period is now higher than previously reported:

• Seir al-Gharbiya (Nabatieh district): 9 people killed and 6 injured in an Israeli airstrike on a residential building — one of the highest single-strike death tolls since the ceasefire began
• Deir Qanoun en-Nahr (Tyre district): House completely destroyed — 4 killed (updated from previous reports)
• Civil Defence team in Kfar struck: The Israeli Army targeted a Civil Defence team (linked to the Islamic Health Authority) in the town of Kfar while they were carrying out a rescue operation to recover casualties — confirmed by NNA on Saturday
• Hiram Hospital (Aabbasiyyeh): Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health confirmed at least 25 medical, nursing and administrative staff wounded (updated figure); hospital CEO Aydibi said it was “the third strike near the facility since the war began” — a violation of international humanitarian law’s protection of medical facilities; “This is the second time in less than two months that the hospital has been exposed to these dangers”

The diplomatic picture: The May 29 Pentagon military-to-military track is 4 days away. The June 2–3 fourth round of political talks is 8 days away. Al Jazeera confirms: “Lebanon and Israel began landmark US-brokered talks last month and are preparing for a fourth round in early June, preceded by a military meeting at the Pentagon.”

The question of whether the May 29 Pentagon track will proceed following the Nabatieh Army barracks strike on May 23 has not been publicly answered by either Lebanon or the United States.

📅 KEY EVENTS: MAY 23–25, 2026

🚨 ALL BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — SUNDAY MAY 25, 2026

🔴 #1 — IDF ISSUES 10 FORCED DISPLACEMENT ORDERS IN SINGLE WAVE — NABATIEH DISTRICT PRIMARY TARGET

[Al Jazeera — confirmed today]

The IDF issued a mass forced displacement warning covering 10 villages and towns on Sunday May 25, primarily in the Nabatieh district. IDF Arabic spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee posted the list on social media: Nabatieh al-Tahta, al-Louizeh, Sajd, Ain Qana, Harouf, Zibdin, Kfar Reman, Doueir, Adshit al-Shaqif, and Maydun. Adraee stated: “Citing Hezbollah’s violation of the ceasefire agreement, the Israeli forces are compelled to operate against it with force.” He added: “For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately and move at least 1,000 metres away from these towns and villages to open areas.”

This is the largest single-wave evacuation order for the Nabatieh district since the ceasefire began. Al Jazeera notes this continues the pattern of mass displacement: “people are living under psychological terror from Israeli air attacks and displacement orders.”

🔴 #2 — TYRE: 2 HOMES DESTROYED IN ARZOUN MUNICIPALITY — RESCUE TEAMS DEPLOYED

[Al Jazeera / NNA — confirmed today]

An Israeli attack in the southern city of Tyre destroyed two homes in the Arzoun municipality. NNA reported that rescue teams were on site to evacuate the injured. The extent of casualties was not immediately confirmed in this edition’s sources but rescue team deployment suggests injuries or deaths. The Tyre district has now been struck on every confirmed day from May 22 through May 25.

🔴 #3 — SEIR AL-GHARBIYA (NABATIEH): 9 KILLED IN RESIDENTIAL BUILDING — LARGEST SINGLE-STRIKE SINCE CEASEFIRE

[Al Jazeera / NNA — confirmed May 23, updated today]

The full toll from the May 23 Seir al-Gharbiya strike is now confirmed: at least 9 people killed and 6 injured in an Israeli airstrike that targeted a residential building in the town of Seir al-Gharbiya in the Nabatieh district. This is one of the highest single-strike death tolls since the ceasefire began and represents a strike directly on a residential building — not a vehicle or a road. NNA confirmed the search and rescue operations were ongoing with the death toll expected to rise.

🔴 #4 — CIVIL DEFENCE TEAM STRUCK IN KFAR DURING RESCUE OPERATION

[NNA / Al Jazeera — confirmed May 23]

Late on Saturday May 23, the Israeli Army targeted a Civil Defence team linked to the Islamic Health Authority in the town of Kfar. The team was carrying out a rescue operation to recover casualties from an earlier strike when they were hit. NNA confirmed the targeting. This continues the pattern of Israeli strikes on first responders throughout the war — documented by the WHO (116+ health workers killed, 147 ambulances struck, 16 hospitals damaged). Striking a rescue team during an active rescue operation is a specific violation of international humanitarian law’s protections for first responders.

🔴 #5 — HIRAM HOSPITAL: 25 HEALTH WORKERS WOUNDED; “THIRD STRIKE NEAR FACILITY SINCE MARCH 2”

[Lebanon Health Ministry / Al Jazeera — confirmed May 23, updated today]

Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health confirmed at least 25 medical, nursing and administrative staff at Hiram Hospital in Aabbasiyyeh (Tyre district) were wounded following the nearby strike overnight on May 22–23. Hospital CEO Salman Aydibi confirmed: “This is the second time in less than two months that the hospital has been exposed to these dangers due to repeated Israeli targeting, which constitutes further evidence of the Israeli enemy’s violation of international humanitarian law.” The Ministry stated: “The area is the third strike near the facility since the war began on March 2.” The hospital briefly closed its emergency department during the incident but remained operational. AFP photographed the area.

🟡 #6 — AFP PHOTOGRAPHS SMOKE FROM DEIR QANOUN AN-NAHR — MAY 24 (PUBLISHED TODAY)

[AFP — confirmed today]

AFP documented and published a photograph on May 24 showing smoke rising following an Israeli attack on the Lebanese village of Deir Qanoun an-Naher (Tyre district). This provides photographic confirmation of the ongoing strike pattern in this community — which has been struck multiple times in the past week. The photograph is published in Al Jazeera’s May 25 article.

🟡 #7 — PENTAGON MILITARY TRACK (MAY 29) AND JUNE 2–3 TALKS — CONFIRMED PROCEEDING

[Al Jazeera — confirmed today]

Al Jazeera confirmed on May 25 that Lebanon and Israel are proceeding with preparations for both the May 29 Pentagon military-to-military meeting and the June 2–3 fourth round of political talks in Washington. The Al Jazeera article states: “Lebanon and Israel began landmark US-brokered talks last month and are preparing for a fourth round in early June, preceded by a military meeting at the Pentagon.” This confirms that despite the Nabatieh Army barracks strike on May 23 and the continued daily attacks on south Lebanon, the diplomatic track remains on schedule. Whether Lebanon will attend the May 29 Pentagon meeting without formally protesting the May 23 barracks strike remains unclear.

🟡 #8 — UK GOVT BULLETIN CONFIRMS KEY WAR STATISTICS; 25–35% OF DEATHS ARE CIVILIANS

[UK Government May 2026 Country Policy and Information Bulletin — confirmed]

The UK Government’s authoritative May 2026 Country Policy and Information Bulletin (published this month) provides one of the most rigorous independent assessments of the war’s civilian toll. Key finding: “Data on conflict-related casualties provided by the Lebanese authorities and IDF figures on the number of militants killed, indicate that approximately 25% to 35% of 2,294 (574 to 803) recorded conflict-related deaths, were civilians.”

With the total death toll now exceeding 3,000, the civilian death count is now estimated at approximately 750–1,050 civilians killed (at the 25–35% range from the higher confirmed figure). Children killed (211 confirmed) represent approximately 20% of civilian deaths. The bulletin also confirmed: the IDF struck over 3,500 Hezbollah targets since March 2; approximately 25% to 35% of reported deaths are civilians; the Lebanese government banned Hezbollah military activities March 2; Hezbollah “firmly rejected” that demand.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MAY 25, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 45/100 🟡 | CEASEFIRE HOLDING IN BEIRUT — No new Beirut strikes in 19 days

No confirmed Israeli strikes on Beirut since May 6 (Haret Hreik — 19 days ago). The longest Beirut-safe period since the war began. Dahiyeh: assassination risk envelope exists but no strikes. Central, north, east Beirut: normal activity. Airport: FULLY OPERATING.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON / ALEY / NORTHERN METN

Index: 30/100 🟢 | SAFE

No incidents. Normal activity.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI / AKKAR

Index: 27/100 🟢 | SAFE

No incidents. Normal activity.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 68/100 🟡 | ELEVATED — Rashaya al-Wadi (near Syrian border) struck May 22–23; IDF zone declared to Syrian border

Ongoing eastern Lebanon threat. No new Bekaa strikes confirmed today but the zone remains declared. Exercise caution near Hermel and border areas.

🏛️ BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 68/100 🔴 | ELEVATED — Eastern Lebanon strikes; Baalbek struck May 17–18

Exercise significant caution. Verify before travel to Hermel or border areas.

🌴 NABATIEH — 10 NEW EVACUATION ORDERS TODAY; SEIR AL-GHARBIYA 9 KILLED; BARRACKS STRUCK MAY 23

Index: 93/100 🔴🔴 | MAXIMUM DANGER — 10 NEW EVACUATION ORDERS; RESIDENTIAL BUILDING STRIKE KILLED 9; ARMY BARRACKS STRUCK

Today’s 10 evacuation orders cover most of the Nabatieh district’s populated areas. The May 23 Seir al-Gharbiya strike (9 killed in residential building) is the largest single-strike death toll since the ceasefire began. Lebanese Army barracks in Nabatieh city struck May 23. Civil Defence team struck during rescue in Kfar. The entire Nabatieh governorate is at maximum danger. Do not enter any community covered by today’s 10 evacuation orders.

The 10 communities under today’s evacuation orders:

1. Nabatieh al-Tahta
2. Al-Louizeh
3. Sajd
4. Ain Qana
5. Harouf
6. Zibdin
7. Kfar Reman
8. Doueir
9. Adshit al-Shaqif
10. Maydun

ABSOLUTE DO NOT ENTER for all 10 listed communities and their surroundings.

🌴 TYRE (SOUTH GOVERNORATE)

Index: 92/100 🔴🔴 | MAXIMUM DANGER — 2 HOMES DESTROYED TODAY IN ARZOUN; DEIR QANOUN AN-NAHR ONGOING STRIKES; HIRAM HOSPITAL POST-INCIDENT

2 homes destroyed in Arzoun today. Deir Qanoun an-Nahr struck this week and photographed May 24. Hiram Hospital post-incident (25 health workers wounded). Al Jazeera: daily strikes throughout Tyre district. Do not enter Tyre district without CIS Security clearance.

🌴 YELLOW LINE ZONE (55+ VILLAGES, 0–10KM FROM BORDER)

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | DO NOT ENTER — IDF occupation; systematic demolitions

No change. Do not approach.

📊 LEBANON WAR DASHBOARD — MAY 25, 2026

⚠️ DIPLOMATIC STATUS — MAY 25, 2026

The May 29 Pentagon track and June 2–3 talks are 4 and 8 days away. Both confirmed proceeding.

What the May 29 Pentagon track means: This will be the first-ever direct military-to-military communication between the Israeli Defence Forces and the Lebanese Armed Forces — a genuinely historic threshold. The meeting at the Pentagon (Washington DC) will be hosted by US military officials and will focus on security arrangements, border monitoring, and practical implementation of any eventual IDF withdrawal framework. The fact that it is proceeding despite the May 23 barracks strike suggests Lebanon has decided to keep the diplomatic track open regardless of ground-level provocations.

What the June 2–3 fourth round means: Lebanon’s delegation under Simon Karam will push for: a formal IDF withdrawal timeline, return of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, cessation of demolitions in the Yellow Line zone, and protection of the Lebanese Army. Israel will push for Hezbollah disarmament mechanisms. The State Department framework — “lasting peace, full recognition of sovereignty and territorial integrity, genuine security along their shared border” — remains the formal US-defined goal.

The Seir al-Gharbiya precedent: 9 people killed in a residential building. The UK Government’s own analysis confirms 25–35% of all confirmed deaths are civilians. A residential building strike killing 9 people — with no IDF claim of a military target at that specific address published — raises the question of whether Israel’s targeting criteria has expanded beyond even the broadly construed “Hezbollah infrastructure” justification. If the talks are to produce a meaningful framework, Lebanon will need to table the question of targeting criteria explicitly.

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — MAY 25, 2026

TODAY’S 10 EVACUATION ORDERS COVER MOST OF NABATIEH DISTRICT.

⛔ DO NOT ENTER — TODAY’S 10 EVACUATION ORDER COMMUNITIES: Nabatieh al-Tahta, al-Louizeh, Sajd, Ain Qana, Harouf, Zibdin, Kfar Reman, Doueir, Adshit al-Shaqif, Maydun. If you are in any of these communities, evacuate immediately at least 1,000 metres to open areas. Contact CIS Security for guidance on safe evacuation routes.

⛔ DO NOT ENTER — TYRE DISTRICT: 2 homes destroyed in Arzoun today. Deir Qanoun an-Nahr under ongoing strikes. Hiram Hospital post-incident. Al-Baqbouq — woman was still trapped under rubble as of yesterday.

⛔ DO NOT ENTER — YELLOW LINE (55+ villages).

🟢 SAFE:

• Beirut (central, north, east) — 19 days since last Beirut-area strike; normal activity; airport fully operating
• Mount Lebanon — safe
• North Lebanon — safe

CRITICAL MINE WARNING: Mine Action Centre: 01-613920. South Lebanon is comprehensively mine/IED contaminated. Do not enter any community where combat has occurred without clearance.

MAY 29 AND JUNE 2–3 DIPLOMATIC WATCH: Both events confirmed proceeding. CIS Security will monitor and issue bulletins on any breakthrough or collapse signals. The May 29 meeting — first-ever IDF-LAF direct engagement — is the single most historically significant diplomatic event of the entire war.

🚗 TRAVEL STATUS — MAY 25, 2026

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — EMERGENCY MONITORING

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net US Embassy: +1-202-501-4444 | Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 | Civil Defence: 125 | Mine Action: 01-613920

🔴 PRIORITY 1: 10 NABATIEH EVACUATION ORDERS — ACTIVE NOW The 10 communities under today’s evacuation orders are at immediate strike risk. CIS Security is tracking IDF movements in Nabatieh district in real time. Contact us for evacuation route guidance from any of the listed communities.

🔴 PRIORITY 2: TYRE DISTRICT — ONGOING MAXIMUM EMERGENCY Arzoun struck today. Deir Qanoun an-Nahr ongoing. Al-Baqbouq rescue operations. Hiram Hospital post-incident. CIS Security is maintaining continuous monitoring of the Tyre district.

🟡 PRIORITY 3: MAY 29 PENTAGON TRACK WATCH First-ever IDF-LAF direct military meeting. CIS Security will issue a bulletin after the May 29 meeting on any agreements or ceasefire reinforcement signals. This is the most significant upcoming diplomatic event of the entire war.

✅ PRIORITY 4: BEIRUT AND NORTH LEBANON — NORMAL CONDITIONS 19 days since last Beirut-area strike. Airport fully operational. Normal commercial activity.

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — MAY 25, 2026

Day 85 of the war. Day 39 of the ceasefire. The diplomatic track is 4 days from the most historically significant event of the entire conflict — the first-ever direct military engagement between the Israeli Defence Forces and the Lebanese Armed Forces at the Pentagon. If that meeting produces a concrete framework for IDF withdrawal timelines and Lebanese Army deployment, it could transform the ceasefire from a diplomatic fiction into a genuine security architecture. If it produces nothing, or if Israel strikes south Lebanon on the same day (as it did with the ceasefire extension announcement on May 15), it will confirm that the ceasefire is indeed, as Al Jazeera has reported, only in name.

In the meantime: 3 killed today. 10 communities ordered to evacuate. 9 people killed in a residential building two days ago. A Civil Defence team struck during a rescue operation. A hospital hit for the third time near its facility since March 2. An army barracks struck.

The gap between the diplomatic track and the ground reality remains the defining feature of Lebanon’s ceasefire. The next 8 days — through the May 29 military meeting and the June 2–3 political talks — will determine whether that gap begins to close.

CIS Security will monitor every development and issue emergency bulletins as needed. For anyone in south Lebanon today: the 10 evacuation orders are active. Evacuate now.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Sunday, May 25, 2026 | CEASEFIRE DAY 39 — WAR DAY 85

All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health as reported by Al Jazeera. UK Government civilian death estimate from official May 2026 Country Policy and Information Bulletin. IDF evacuation order from official IDF Arabic spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee social media statement.

Index compiled: Sunday, May 25, 2026 — sources current as of midday Beirut time.