CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Feb 28 2026

Saturday, February 28, 2026 | Ramadan Day 11

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 CATASTROPHIC OVERALL INDEX: 97/100 — HIGHEST EVER RECORDED TREND: ⬆️⬆️ MAXIMUM ESCALATION

⚡⚡⚡ EMERGENCY BULLETIN — WAR HAS BEGUN ⚡⚡⚡

THIS IS THE MOST CRITICAL SECURITY INDEX EVER PUBLISHED FOR LEBANON.

At 8:15 a.m. Israel time on Saturday, February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military attack on Iran — “Operation Roaring Lion” (Israel) / “Operation Epic Fury” (US). This is the single most dangerous regional development for Lebanon since the 2024 war. The entire security situation for Lebanon has changed as of this morning.

🚨🚨 BREAKING: TOP EMERGENCIES — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28, 2026 🚨🚨

🔴 EMERGENCY #1 — US AND ISRAEL HAVE ATTACKED IRAN: WAR IS NOW ACTIVE

[Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, PBS, CNN, Wikipedia — confirmed this morning]

<The joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran — codenamed “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel and “Operation Epic Fury” by the US Department of Defense — began at 8:15 a.m. Israel time today.>

Key confirmed strike details:

• Approximately 200 Israeli Air Force jets struck 500 targets across 28 regions in western and central Iran — the largest single strike sortie in Israeli Air Force history
• Targets in Tehran included: the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Intelligence, the Atomic Energy Headquarters, Khamenei’s residence and office, the Judiciary building, and the Presidential compound
• Nuclear facilities were struck at Natanz, Karaj, Fordow, and near Qom
• US President Trump announced the US was engaged in a “major combat operation” aimed at “eliminating threats from the Iranian regime”
• Trump called on IRGC members to “lay down their arms in exchange for immunity,” warning that refusal meant “certain death”

Iran retaliation is underway now:

• By 17:00 Israel time, 23 waves of Iranian missile attacks had struck Israel — 8 toward northern Israel, 9 toward the Tel Aviv area, 3 toward Jerusalem, 3 toward the south
• Two mildly injured in Israel so far, with damage to homes from direct hits and interception debris
• Iran has launched a high volume of barrages with smaller numbers of missiles per barrage — a deliberate saturation strategy against Iron Dome
• Iranian strikes have also hit: a US base in Bahrain (Fifth Fleet service centre), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem Air Base; intercepted), UAE (citizens told to shelter in place), Qatar (Iranian drone struck a high-rise in Doha), and multiple other Gulf states hosting US military assets
• Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah struck at a base in Iraq’s Babil province, killing 2 and wounding 3

What Khamenei being targeted means for Lebanon: A Hezbollah official had told AFP this week that Hezbollah would not intervene militarily in the event of “limited” US strikes — but would consider any attack on Supreme Leader Khamenei a “red line.” Khamenei was among the senior Iranian officials targeted in the initial strikes. This is the critical tripwire for Lebanon.

🔴 EMERGENCY #2 — HEZBOLLAH ON HIGH ALERT: RADIO SILENCE THEN CONDITIONAL CONDEMNATION

[L’Orient Today, Times of Israel, Al Jazeera — confirmed today]

Hezbollah has maintained strategic ambiguity since the strikes began. Key confirmed facts:

• A Hezbollah speech by Secretary-General Naim Qassem was canceled mid-morning, when it had been scheduled as part of a Bekaa ceremony
• Hezbollah issued a statement condemning the strikes as a “blatant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter” — but stopped short of pledging to retaliate
• The group called on “countries and people of the region to stand strong in the face of these hostile designs”
• Hezbollah has raised its level of alert and is “adopting a policy of waiting and caution, while conveying messages that it will intervene only if red lines are crossed”
• IRGC officers are confirmed to be on the ground in Lebanon directing Hezbollah forces
• Hezbollah is widely believed to still possess thousands of rockets and missiles including precision-guided systems capable of striking strategic infrastructure deep in Israel — and systems that can reach US assets in the region
• Analysts at FDD describe Hezbollah’s restraint during the ceasefire as “evidence of calculation, not restraint” — conserving firepower for exactly this scenario

THE CRITICAL QUESTION FOR LEBANON RIGHT NOW: Did the strikes cross Hezbollah’s stated “red line” of attacking Khamenei? Khamenei’s compound was struck. Hezbollah has not yet answered. Every hour of silence is a diplomatic reprieve. Every statement from Iran or Hezbollah must be monitored in real time.

🔴 EMERGENCY #3 — ISRAEL STRUCK SOUTH LEBANON BEFORE THE IRAN OPERATION THIS MORNING

[Times of Israel, FDD, Arab News — confirmed today]

Before launching Operation Roaring Lion against Iran, Israel conducted a preemptive wave of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets across south Lebanon this morning, targeting:

• Tunnel shafts and rocket launching sites across southern Lebanon
• Al-Qatrani area (south Lebanon — AFP photo of smoke confirmed)
• Wadi Barghaz and Wadi Al-Dalafa
• Litani River area
• Iqlim al-Tuffah highlands and Jezzine district
• Israeli reconnaissance aircraft flew over southern Lebanon, passing over Sidon and reaching the Bekaa Valley

The IDF stated these were pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities, specifically because the IDF had “identified preparations by Hezbollah’s rocket and missile forces to strike Israel if the United States targets Iran.” Three of the strikes on February 20 alone killed 10 Hezbollah operatives in Riyaq including top missile array commanders — described as the group’s senior missile leadership.

This means that as of this morning, Israel has conducted pre-emptive disarmament strikes on Hezbollah in anticipation of the Iran operation. The Lebanese battlefield has already been activated.

🔴 EMERGENCY #4 — US EMBASSY BEIRUT: “LEAVE LEBANON NOW” — ALL CONSULAR SERVICES SUSPENDED

[US Embassy Beirut — official security alert issued today, February 28, 2026]

The US Embassy in Beirut issued its highest-level security alert as of today:

“LEAVE LEBANON NOW while commercial options remain available.” “The U.S. government currently has no ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Lebanon.” “All consular services, routine and emergency, are suspended.“

The Embassy specifically named the highest-risk zones:

• Southern Lebanon
• Areas near the Syrian border
• Refugee settlements
• The Dahiyeh neighbourhood of Beirut — Hezbollah’s Beirut stronghold — specifically singled out for immediate departure

Context: On February 23, the US had already ordered the departure of all non-emergency government personnel and eligible family members from Beirut — a step taken five days ago. Today’s alert escalates far beyond that: it suspends all consular services entirely and issues a blanket departure order. This is the US embassy posture of a country preparing for imminent war.

For all non-Lebanese nationals in Lebanon: this is a maximum-urgency departure advisory. Act immediately while Beirut airport remains open.

🔴 EMERGENCY #5 — BEIRUT AIRPORT: PARTIAL OPERATIONS — WINDOW CLOSING FAST

[LBCI, L’Orient Today, Fortune, Turkish Airlines — confirmed today]

Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport is currently open but flight options are rapidly disappearing:

Confirmed cancellations as of today (February 28):

• Air France: Flights AF566 and AF565 cancelled
• Qatar Airways: QR417 Beirut-Doha cancelled
• Iraqi Airways: IA132 and IA140 cancelled
• Turkish Airlines: All flights to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Jordan suspended until Monday — additional cancellations possible
• Lufthansa, Transavia, Pegasus: All flights to Beirut cancelled
• MEA (Middle East Airlines): ~10 flights cancelled between Beirut and Gulf countries and Iraq; added emergency Larnaca flight at 8:00 p.m. tonight
• Affected routes: Erbil, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Baghdad, Kuwait, Dubai — all cancelled
• Dubai International Airport: All flights halted indefinitely

PM Nawaf Salam confirmed: “Beirut airport remains open and the national carrier’s flights are continuing.” MEA is offering free rebooking and refunds for affected passengers.

URGENT: The window to leave Lebanon commercially is narrowing by the hour. The US Embassy states to depart NOW while options remain. The MEA Larnaca flight tonight may be among the last reliable options today.

🔴 EMERGENCY #6 — LEBANON EMERGENCY CABINET MEETING: NEUTRALITY DECLARED

[L’Orient Today, Arab News — confirmed today]

Lebanon’s government convened an emergency session today in response to the US-Iran war. Key statements:

President Joseph Aoun:

“Shielding Lebanon from the catastrophes and horrors of external conflicts, as well as preserving its sovereignty, security and stability, constitutes an absolute priority.” He held emergency calls with PM Salam, Transport Minister Rassamny (on airport operations), US Ambassador Michel Issa, and Army Commander Gen. Haykal. He had also met Friday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (posted on X):

“In light of the serious developments in the region, I call on all Lebanese to show wisdom and patriotism, putting Lebanon’s interests and those of the Lebanese above all else. I repeat: We will not accept that anyone drags the country into adventures that threaten its security and unity. National interest comes before any other consideration. Ensure Lebanon’s neutrality. Ensure Lebanon’s neutrality.“

US Ambassador Michel Issa to President Aoun: Israel has communicated that it will not escalate against Lebanon so long as Lebanon refrains from hostile actions. This is the direct US diplomatic guarantee — but it is contingent entirely on Hezbollah not opening fire.

UN Special Coordinator Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert: Urged “all parties in Lebanon” to “prioritize, in words and actions, the need to shield the country and its people from unfolding regional developments.”

Independent MP Michel Moawad:

“The Cabinet must convene quickly, Hezbollah must declare itself under the authority of the state, and the government must act to guarantee Lebanon’s neutrality.”

KEY ASSESSMENT: Lebanon’s official position is neutrality. But neutrality holds only if Hezbollah complies. Hezbollah’s position is “waiting and caution with red lines.” The government has no mechanism to enforce Hezbollah’s compliance. Lebanon’s fate today depends on Hezbollah’s calculation, not its government’s declaration.

🔴 EMERGENCY #7 — BEKAA VALLEY / BAALBEK: KILLED AND WOUNDED THURSDAY; STRIKES TODAY

[Al Jazeera, L’Orient Today, LiveUAMap — confirmed]

Thursday February 26: Israeli strikes on the Bekaa Valley killed one person (named as 16-year-old Syrian Hussein Mohsen al-Khalaf, killed in Kfar Dan near Baalbek) and wounded 29 others. Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the Bekaa strikes. Separately, two women were also killed in earlier raids — confirmed by Lebanese Health Ministry.

Last week: At least 12 people killed in Israeli strikes across the Bekaa Valley and Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon.

Today (Feb 28): Israeli aircraft struck the outskirts of Baalbek and multiple Bekaa Valley towns including Harba, Buday, and Shamshtar. Strikes also hit the area between Ansar and Al-Zarariyeh north of the Litani River, with smoke and flames confirmed.

The Bekaa Valley is NOW the primary zone where Iran’s war and Lebanon’s domestic security converge. IRGC officers confirmed present. Hezbollah missile infrastructure concentrated here. Israel has already conducted pre-emptive strikes. This is where the next escalation will detonate first.

🔴 EMERGENCY #8 — SOUTH LEBANON: BLAT, WADI BARGHOUTI, IQLIM AL-TUFFAH, MARKABA STRUCK TODAY

[Al Jazeera — published today]

Israeli airstrikes today struck:

• Blat and Wadi Barghouti in Iqlim al-Tuffah region (multiple strikes — forests and highlands)
• Markaba — Israeli quadcopter drones dropped explosive devices for the third time in this town
• Al-Qatrani — smoke visible in AFP photograph taken today

No casualties reported from today’s Tuffah strikes so far; most raids targeting open areas. Israeli reconnaissance aircraft continue to fly over all of south Lebanon and into the Bekaa.

The pattern is clear: Israel pre-emptively struck Hezbollah infrastructure before launching the Iran operation, and continues striking now to prevent Hezbollah activation.

🔴 EMERGENCY #9 — AMNESTY, HRW, 5 RIGHTS GROUPS: DEMAND JUSTICE FOR 380+ KILLED SINCE CEASEFIRE

[Amnesty International / Human Rights Watch — published February 25, 2026]

In a letter published three days ago, five Lebanese and international human rights organisations — Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Legal Agenda, the Union of Journalists in Lebanon, and Reporters Without Borders — demanded Lebanon’s justice minister take immediate action to secure accountability for war crimes.

Key facts from the letter:

• Israel has killed more than 380 people in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire, including at least 127 civilians
• One year after the ceasefire deadline for Israeli withdrawal, Israel announced it would maintain forces in five “strategic” positions
• Israel’s defense minister on February 27 stated Israeli forces were “staying indefinitely” in a buffer zone
• Lebanon’s government has taken no domestic legal action and has not accepted ICC jurisdiction

The publication of this report on February 25 — three days before the Iran operation — is now deeply overshadowed by the war but represents a baseline accountability framework that will be critical in whatever post-conflict phase eventually arrives.

🔴 EMERGENCY #10 — FEBRUARY 16-22 WEEK: 14 KILLED IN ISRAEL’S MOST AGGRESSIVE WEEK YET

[FDD Long War Journal — confirmed]

The week of February 16-22 was documented as the most lethal single week for Israeli operations in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire. Key facts:

• 14 killed total: 10 Hezbollah operatives, 2 Hamas operatives, 1 Syrian national, 1 Ethiopian national; 27 wounded including 3 children
• February 20 Riyaq strike — single largest strike: killed 10 Hezbollah operatives including senior missile array commanders; destroyed long-range missiles reportedly warheaded and ready for launch
• Major General Rafi Milo (IDF Northern Command) mid-week ordered forces to adopt an “aggressively expanded” approach — directly precursor to today’s pre-emptive strikes ahead of the Iran operation
• IDF operated in 25 Lebanese locales during this week alone
• IRGC officers confirmed sent to Lebanon to direct Hezbollah — this was the trigger for the IDF’s escalated approach

🌡️ GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28, 2026

⚠️ NOTE: ALL INDICES ARE ELEVATED BY THE IRAN WAR FACTOR. SITUATION IS LIVE AND CHANGING BY THE HOUR.

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 92/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ RAPIDLY ESCALATING

Beirut is in emergency mode. The government is in emergency session. The US Embassy has ordered all citizens to leave. The airport is partially operating with a closing window. The Dahiyeh neighbourhood — Hezbollah’s Beirut stronghold — has been specifically named by the US Embassy as an immediate-departure zone.

The US assurance through Ambassador Issa — that Israel will not strike Lebanon if it stays neutral — provides a fragile diplomatic ceiling. But Lebanon’s government cannot enforce Hezbollah’s behaviour. If Hezbollah activates from Beirut’s southern suburbs, the consequences would mirror or exceed the 2024 war.

President Aoun and PM Salam have issued the clearest, most unified neutrality statements in modern Lebanese political history. That is a positive signal. But statements cannot substitute for control. The next 12-24 hours are the most critical of Aoun’s presidency.

SPECIFIC RISK: Dahiyeh neighbourhood is singled out for immediate evacuation by US Embassy. If Hezbollah fires from Dahiyeh or southern suburbs, Israeli retaliatory strikes would be immediate and devastating. All civilians and visitors should leave Dahiyeh and southern Beirut suburbs immediately.

Airport Status: Open but closing. MEA Larnaca flight tonight at 8:00 p.m. may be a critical last option. Check airport status continuously.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 85/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ Rapidly Escalating

Mount Lebanon faces significant collateral risk from the regional war. Its proximity to Beirut and the Dahiyeh area makes it vulnerable if Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Beirut suburbs occur. Road infrastructure may be affected by potential panic movements and fuel panic-buying as the war spreads.

Displaced families from the south who are sheltering in Mount Lebanon communities face new and acute uncertainty. Economic disruption from airline cancellations, supply chain impacts, and regional market shocks are already beginning.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 82/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

North Lebanon and Tripoli are geographically further from the current Iran war frontlines, but face serious knock-on effects: fuel supply chain disruption, potential panic, and economic stress from the wider war. Syrian border tensions take on new dimensions as the Syria-Iran supply corridor (through which IRGC and Hezbollah weapons have historically flowed) becomes a direct war consideration.

Turkish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Lebanon until at least Monday — disrupting a major transport route used by North Lebanon’s diaspora community.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 84/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Akkar’s Syrian border is now a strategic flashpoint. The Syria-Lebanon border crossing area is a known transit route for IRGC and Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. With IRGC officers confirmed inside Lebanon and the Iran war now active, border security in Akkar faces unprecedented pressure. Potential refugee flows from Syria, disrupted by the regional war, could spike dramatically.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ CATASTROPHIC — ACTIVE WAR ZONE

The Bekaa Valley is TODAY’S HIGHEST RISK ZONE IN ALL OF LEBANON.

Multiple confirmed strikes today in Baalbek, Harba, Buday, Shamshtar, and the Ansar-Zarariyeh corridor north of the Litani. IRGC officers are confirmed present in the valley. Hezbollah’s primary missile infrastructure — including the long-range guided missiles targeted in the February 20 Riyaq strike — is concentrated here.

If Hezbollah activates against Israel today or tonight in response to Khamenei being targeted, the opening salvos will likely originate from the Bekaa Valley. Israel will immediately and massively respond. The devastation could dwarf the 2024 war’s impact on this region.

Agricultural life has already been disrupted by weeks of strikes. Kfar Dan lost a 16-year-old on Thursday. The valley has no civil defence infrastructure capable of managing a full-scale conflict.

MAXIMUM EMERGENCY: All civilians in the Bekaa Valley, especially Baalbek-Hermel areas, should be prepared to shelter in the most fortified available structure or evacuate toward the Metn or Kesrwan coast immediately.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 98/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ CATASTROPHIC

Baalbek-Hermel is the single most dangerous governorate in Lebanon today. It is Hezbollah’s heartland, the confirmed location of IRGC officers, the site of major pre-emptive Israeli strikes this week (February 20 Riyaq strike killing 10 operatives), and the primary Hezbollah missile deployment zone.

The February 20 strike at Riyaq reportedly destroyed long-range Hezbollah missiles that were warheaded and ready for launch against Israel — a finding that confirms Hezbollah had been preparing for exactly this scenario. IRGC has been directing forces here in anticipation of an Iran strike.

Any Hezbollah decision to activate will be executed first from Baalbek-Hermel. Any Israeli pre-emptive or retaliatory response will fall first and most heavily here. This is Lebanon’s most lethal zip code today.

ALL NON-ESSENTIAL PEOPLE IN BAALBEK-HERMEL SHOULD EVACUATE NOW.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Keserwan-Jbeil is relatively safer than other governorates but faces severe economic disruption from airline cancellations, flight panic, supply chain stress, and regional market shock. It serves as a receiving zone for Beirut evacuees. Roads through the Metn-Kesrwan coastal corridor toward Jounieh will be under heavy traffic pressure as potential evacuation movements develop from Beirut and the south.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 96/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ CATASTROPHIC — ACTIVE STRIKE ZONE

South Lebanon has been struck already today — before the Iran operation even formally began. Multiple sites confirmed hit this morning as Israel pre-empted potential Hezbollah activation:

• Blat and Wadi Barghouti (Iqlim al-Tuffah)
• Al-Qatrani
• Markaba (quadcopter explosive drop — third time)
• Wadi Al-Dalafa heights and Jezzine district

Israeli reconnaissance aircraft are actively flying over all of south Lebanon today. The pattern of operations signals that Israel is treating the entire south as a pre-conflict preparation zone — striking Hezbollah assets before they can be activated against Israel in support of Iran.

Simultaneously, 380+ people have been killed since the November 2024 ceasefire, five Israeli-occupied positions remain on Lebanese territory, and reconstruction of destroyed border villages remains blocked. The humanitarian catastrophe of the past 15 months is the baseline on which a potential new war now threatens to erupt.

Israeli warning to Lebanon: Beirut has been warned that Lebanese national infrastructure — including Beirut airport — could be placed on Israel’s target list if Hezbollah joins the war.

ALL SOUTH LEBANON: DO NOT TRAVEL. SHELTER IN PLACE OR EVACUATE NORTH IMMEDIATELY.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 95/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ CATASTROPHIC

Nabatieh Governorate contains the Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, Nabatieh, and Hasbaya districts — the geographic heart of south Lebanon’s Hezbollah territory and the site of the most intensive Israeli ground operations over the past months.

With Israel having pre-emptively struck south Lebanon this morning and maintaining five occupied military positions on Lebanese territory in this general area, Nabatieh is a primary potential battle zone. If Hezbollah activates, fighting in Nabatieh will be immediate, intense, and devastating.

Families who have returned to partially rebuilt homes in this governorate face the terrifying prospect of renewed full-scale war. The 64,000 people still displaced from the 2024 conflict would be joined by tens of thousands more.

DO NOT TRAVEL TO NABATIEH GOVERNORATE. EVACUATE IF IN HIGH-RISK VILLAGES NEAR THE BLUE LINE.

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — FEBRUARY 28, 2026

🔥 ACTIVE THREAT MATRIX — RIGHT NOW (17:00 BEIRUT TIME):

TIER 0 — WAR-LEVEL THREATS (UNPRECEDENTED):

1. Hezbollah Activation Decision — The single most consequential variable for Lebanon. Hezbollah is on high alert. Khamenei was targeted. Red lines have been triggered. Radio silence from the group is the only positive sign. Monitor every Hezbollah statement in real time.
2. Israeli Pre-emptive Strikes on Lebanon — Already conducted this morning on south Lebanon and Bekaa. Could expand massively if Hezbollah activates or Israeli intelligence identifies imminent launch preparations.
3. Bekaa Valley / Baalbek-Hermel — IRGC present, Hezbollah missiles concentrated, pre-emptive strikes already conducted. First escalation zone if war opens.
4. Beirut Southern Suburbs (Dahiyeh) — US Embassy specifically named for immediate evacuation. First Beirut target if Hezbollah activates.
5. Beirut Airport — Explicitly threatened by Israel if Hezbollah joins the war. Window to depart Lebanon is open NOW but may close without warning.

TIER 1 — CONFIRMED ACTIVE KINETIC OPERATIONS: 6. South Lebanon (Today) — Blat, Wadi Barghouti, Al-Qatrani, Markaba, Iqlim al-Tuffah: confirmed strikes this morning 7. Bekaa (Today) — Baalbek outskirts, Harba, Buday, Shamshtar, Ansar-Zarariyeh corridor: active strikes 8. All of Lebanon — Israeli reconnaissance aircraft actively flying over all Lebanese territory

TIER 2 — NEAR-TERM HIGH-RISK: 9. Fuel and Supply Disruption — Regional airspace closures and Gulf state strikes creating supply chain shock; panic buying likely 10. Syrian Border (Akkar/Hermel) — IRGC transit route under maximum pressure; potential for Iranian-directed operations

⚠️⚠️ MOST CRITICAL QUESTION OF THE HOUR:

WILL HEZBOLLAH ACTIVATE?

Arguments for restraint:

• Hezbollah was heavily degraded in the 2024 war; its capabilities are reduced
• Lebanon’s government has issued clearest-ever neutrality declaration
• US has given direct diplomatic assurance: no Israeli escalation against Lebanon if Lebanon stays neutral
• Hezbollah did not join the 12-Day Iran-Israel war in June 2025
• Hezbollah is issuing “waiting and caution” signals

Arguments for activation:

• Khamenei was targeted — Hezbollah stated this was a “red line”
• IRGC officers are physically present in Lebanon directing Hezbollah forces
• Hezbollah Secretary-General Qassem warned “war on Iran will ignite the region” and “we have all the jurisdiction to do what we see right to confront it”
• Hezbollah has been conserving a massive missile arsenal through 15 months of ceasefire — this is the scenario for which it has been preserved
• Iran’s retaliatory capacity is already being degraded; if Iran does not win quickly, Hezbollah may feel the axis collapses unless it acts

CIS Security assessment: The next 12-24 hours are the most dangerous period Lebanon has faced since the 2024 war. The probability of Hezbollah activation has risen dramatically today. We cannot predict whether Hezbollah will activate, but we assess conditions as meeting or exceeding their stated red lines. All residents and visitors in Lebanon should treat this as a maximum emergency.

📊 LEBANON REAL-TIME STATUS DASHBOARD — FEB 28, 2026 17:00

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28, 2026

🚨 IF YOU ARE IN LEBANON RIGHT NOW — IMMEDIATE ACTIONS:

PRIORITY 1 — DEPART IF POSSIBLE: The US Embassy has issued a maximum-level departure order: Leave Lebanon NOW while commercial options remain available. The airport is open but closing. MEA is operating an additional Larnaca flight tonight at 8:00 p.m. Check current flight availability at Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport. Flights to Gulf states are largely cancelled; options currently include Larnaca (Cyprus), Amman, Cairo, and selected European destinations. Book anything available, even if not your preferred route.

PRIORITY 2 — IF YOU CANNOT LEAVE:

• Leave Dahiyeh and all southern Beirut suburbs immediately — specifically named by US Embassy
• Leave all of south Lebanon and Nabatieh immediately — active Israeli strikes; potential Hezbollah launch zone
• Leave Baalbek-Hermel and Bekaa Valley — active strikes; IRGC present; first conflict zone if Hezbollah activates
• Move to the highest floors of reinforced buildings or inner rooms if sheltering in place
• Have a Shelter-in-Place kit ready: water (minimum 3 days), food, medications, documents, charged phone, battery bank
• Register your location with your embassy or consulate if you are a foreign national

PRIORITY 3 — MONITORING:

• Follow Lebanese Army announcements in real time
• Monitor MEA flight schedule: www.mea.com.lb
• Follow US Embassy Beirut: lb.usembassy.gov
• Monitor Hezbollah’s Al-Manar for any statement change — a new statement could signal activation
• Monitor IDF Arabic spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee on Telegram for Lebanese targeting warnings

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES — EMERGENCY PROTOCOLS:

All businesses in Lebanon should activate emergency protocols now:

• Closure or skeleton staff for all operations south of the Litani and in Bekaa until further notice
• Supply chain emergency audit: assess all inventory and input dependencies from Gulf and regional routes, which are now disrupted
• Cash liquidity: ATM and electronic payment infrastructure could be disrupted if conflict escalates to Lebanese territory
• Staff safety: Ensure all employees are accounted for and have departure or shelter-in-place plans
• Insurance and liability: Review war-exclusion clauses in business insurance immediately

🚗 EMERGENCY TRAVEL STATUS — FEB 28, 2026:

🌙 RAMADAN NOTE — DAY 11

This is the 11th day of Ramadan. Lebanon faces the most dangerous security environment since the 2024 war on what should be a period of peace, reflection, and community. Ramadan iftar gatherings in south Lebanon, the Bekaa, and Dahiyeh should be cancelled or relocated immediately. Family safety takes absolute precedence over Ramadan traditions today. May all Lebanese be protected.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — MAXIMUM EMERGENCY OPERATIONS

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🚨 WARTIME EMERGENCY SERVICES — ACTIVE NOW:

IMMEDIATE EVACUATION SUPPORT Professional escort and route intelligence for departure from south Lebanon, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, and Dahiyeh. Real-time routing around Israeli strike zones, protest disruptions, and potential conflict areas. Prioritised access to Beirut airport departure assistance.

SHELTER-IN-PLACE SECURITY Professional assessment of shelter locations for clients unable to depart. Fortification advice, supply coordination, and 24/7 monitoring for those remaining in Beirut and central Lebanon.

REAL-TIME HEZBOLLAH ACTIVATION MONITORING CIS Security maintains dedicated intelligence monitoring of Hezbollah communications, IDF Arabic-language warnings, Lebanese Army announcements, and international diplomatic signals. Clients receive immediate notification of any change in Hezbollah activation status.

BEKAA / SOUTH FAMILY EXTRACTION Professional coordination of family member extraction from high-risk zones in south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. Act now while road corridors remain open.

BUSINESS CONTINUITY CRISIS MANAGEMENT Emergency protocols for businesses across all Lebanese governorates. Staff accounting, premises securing, supply chain emergency audit, and transition to minimal operations.

EMBASSY AND DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY SUPPORT Experienced in supporting diplomatic community security during regional escalation. Direct coordination protocols with Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACT — CIS SECURITY

🚨 EMERGENCY HOTLINE (24/7): +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net Email emergency line: available via website contact portal

We are fully operational. All CIS Security teams are on emergency standby. Call now.

⚠️⚠️⚠️ MAXIMUM EMERGENCY OPERATIONAL NOTICE

THE SITUATION AS OF 17:00 BEIRUT TIME, SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28, 2026:

The United States and Israel have launched a joint war against Iran. Iran is retaliating against US bases across the Gulf. Hezbollah is on maximum alert with stated “red lines” crossed. IRGC officers are inside Lebanon. Israel has pre-emptively struck south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The US Embassy has suspended all services and ordered Americans to leave Lebanon immediately. Beirut airport is open but airlines are cancelling flights rapidly.

Lebanon stands at the most dangerous moment in its recent history.

The government’s neutrality declaration is clear and unified. The US diplomatic guarantee protects Lebanon if it stays out. But Lebanon’s fate today rests with Hezbollah — a decision-making body the government cannot control.

Every Lebanese and every visitor in this country should treat the next 24 hours as maximum emergency. Act accordingly. Act now.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — EMERGENCY EDITION — Saturday, February 28, 2026 | Ramadan Day 11 Compiled from verified real-time sources: Al Jazeera (multiple stories published today); Times of Israel (today); US Embassy Beirut official security alert (today); L’Orient Today (today); LBCI Lebanon (today); Arab News (today); Fortune (today); L’Orient Today (today);

PBS NewsHour Live Updates (today); CNN (today); Israel-Alma Daily Report (today); FDD Long War Journal (February 16-22, 2026); Wikipedia (2026 Israeli-US Strikes on Iran — updated today); Amnesty International / Human Rights Watch (February 25, 2026). All events cited are verified from named, credible news sources. Index published 17:00 Beirut time, Saturday February 28, 2026. SITUATION IS LIVE — CHECK FOR UPDATES CONTINUOUSLY.