CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – June 14 2026

🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™

Saturday, June 13 / Sunday, June 14, 2026

🟡 WAR DAY 104 | TRUMP: “DEAL SIGNED SUNDAY, HORMUZ OPENS IMMEDIATELY” | IRAN: “NOT TOMORROW” | PAKISTAN: “24 HOURS” | 5 KILLED IN LEBANON TODAY | JEZZINE MAYOR ASSASSINATED | LEBANESE ARMY SOLDIER STRUCK TWICE | VATICAN CONVOY BLOCKED BY IDF THEN REROUTED | DEAL INCLUDES LEBANON — BUT ISRAEL NOT PARTY | NABATIEH GHOST CITY | S&P REBOUNDS | OIL NEAR $87

INDEX LEVEL: 🟡 ELEVATED OVERALL INDEX: 70/100 TREND: → HOLDING — Deal signing is the dominant story; Trump posted it will be signed Sunday, Hormuz opens immediately; Pakistan PM said within 24 hours; Iran’s Foreign Ministry said not Sunday but “coming days possible”; on the ground in Lebanon, 5 more killed today, Jezzine mayor killed, Lebanese army soldier struck by drone twice, Nabatieh is nearly deserted, Vatican aid convoy was stopped by IDF tanks before rerouting and eventually reaching south Lebanon Christian villages; oil at ~$87; S&P futures up; deal not yet signed as of Saturday evening Beirut time.

⛔ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — SATURDAY JUNE 13, 2026 (WAR DAY 104)

THE DEAL — TRUMP SAYS SUNDAY. IRAN SAYS NOT TOMORROW. PAKISTAN SAYS 24 HOURS.

Saturday June 13 was defined by competing timelines for the same deal.

Trump on Truth Social (Saturday morning): <cite index=”323-1″>”The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.”</cite> He also wrote: “At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains.” Trump reshared Pakistan PM Sharif’s post without comment.

Pakistan PM Sharif on X (Saturday morning): <cite index=”319-1″>”We are closer to a peace deal than ever before. With finalisation likely expected in the next 24 hours, Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week. We are confident that this historic peace deal will form a strong foundation for lasting peace.”</cite>

Iran Foreign Ministry (Baghaei, Saturday afternoon — two hours after Sharif): <cite index=”318-1″>”Exact timing of the signing of the Islamabad memorandum will not be on Sunday.” While Baghaei noted that a signing in the coming days could not be entirely ruled out, he emphasised the need for caution regarding any specific date due to “the hesitation of the other side” — referring to the US.</cite>

<cite index=”321-1″>Baghaei said a signing will “not be tomorrow.” “The possibility that it will happen in the coming days is not ruled out,” Baghaei said. “However, due to the other party’s instability, we must be cautious about any statements regarding this process.”</cite>

The Hormuz caveat: <cite index=”326-1″>Within the past 24 hours, at least 33 ships, including oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran’s permission, according to Fars citing the IRGC Navy. As of Saturday, about 240 ships are waiting for Iran’s permission to pass through the strait. Fars said early Sunday that the agreement provided for Iran to continue to manage the waterway.</cite>

What the Trump administration disputes: <cite index=”321-1″>The Trump administration objected to reports that the deal included provisions for a $300 billion reconstruction fund and financial compensation for Iran. Araghchi urged the media to hold off on sharing any leaked details about the agreement.</cite>

CIS assessment: The deal is real in outline. The text is substantially agreed. But US–Iran timing disputes, combined with the Hormuz management question (Iran says it continues to “manage” the waterway even after the deal; Trump says it opens to all), mean the final signature has not come yet. The deal will be signed — the question is hours or days, not weeks.

JUNE 13 — WHAT HAPPENED ON THE GROUND IN LEBANON

5 killed today: <cite index=”307-1″>Israeli attacks across southern Lebanon have killed at least five people as air raids and artillery strikes continue despite a United States-brokered “ceasefire.” Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that one person was killed in an air strike targeting the town of Maarakeh in Tyre district. Ali Badie, the mayor of Ar-Rihan municipality, was killed in an Israeli attack in the Jezzine district of southern Lebanon. Three people were killed in the towns of Deir al-Zahrani and Kafr Reman in Nabatieh district.</cite>

Wide geographic spread of strikes: <cite index=”307-1″>Israeli air raids struck the villages of Qana, Bazouriyeh, Rashkananiyeh and Shahour in Tyre district, as well as the municipality of Kfar Tibnit in Nabatieh district. Also in Tyre, the Israeli military launched drone strikes on the towns of al-Majadel and Bayt al-Sayyad, as well as al-Kawthariyah al-Saida close to Sidon. Warplanes raided the town of Khirbet Selm in the Ain area. An Israeli attack was also reported in the municipality of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in Nabatieh district. Additional Israeli strikes targeted Deir Qanun al-Nahr and as-Sawana in Marjayoun district. Also in Marjayoun, the Israeli military bombed the town of Blat late on Saturday.</cite>

Lebanese Army soldier struck TWICE: <cite index=”307-1″>The Lebanese army said that one of its soldiers was severely injured after being targeted by the Israeli military twice as he was travelling on the Kfar Reman–Nabatieh road.</cite> The soldier was first struck by drone fire and then targeted a second time during the same movement. This is the second Lebanese Army targeted incident in days — following the June 6 killing of three army personnel on the Khardali-Nabatieh road.

Nabatieh — ghost city: <cite index=”322-1″>An AFP correspondent in Nabatieh said the city was almost deserted, reporting artillery shelling there and in nearby areas overnight and on Saturday.</cite> The IDF 36th Division remains on the outskirts of Arnoun, 3 km from the city. No ground offensive has been ordered yet.

Vatican Convoy — stopped by IDF, rerouted, eventually arrived: <cite index=”332-1″>An aid convoy organized by the Vatican envoy to Lebanon that was headed for Christian villages in the country’s south was stopped by the Israeli military and forced to change course. A number of Christian-majority villages near the border have been caught up in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah but many residents have refused to leave. “While approaching the village of Debl on Thursday, we got face-to-face with several Israeli tanks” who stopped the convoy.</cite>

<cite index=”334-1″>The convoy, led by the Apostolic Nuncio Paolo Borgia, included 25 trucks and several cars transporting residents wanting to return home. The route was coordinated with UN peacekeepers through an international committee created to monitor a ceasefire that sought to end the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. After being halted for over an hour, the convoy took another longer route to reach their destination after 12 hours.</cite>

<cite index=”332-1″>Vincent Gelot, head of Catholic organisation Oeuvre d’Orient, said that the people who chose to remain in their villages “are completely isolated from the rest of the country.” “They are deprived of resources because most of them are farmers.”</cite>

CIS note: The Vatican convoy eventually reached Debl, Ain Ebel, and Rmeich — carrying food, water, medicine, and fuel. But it took 12 hours, was stopped by IDF tanks and faced machine gun fire in the rear, and required UN UNIFIL coordination through a separate route. This illustrates that even coordinated, internationally organised humanitarian access to Christian villages in south Lebanon is blocked and dangerous. CIS strongly advises against any uncoordinated return attempts to south Lebanon.

📅 JUNE 13 KEY TIMELINE

🗺️ JUNE 13 GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE ASSESSMENT

🚗 JUNE 13 TRAVEL STATUS

📊 JUNE 13 STATISTICS — WAR DAY 104

🔑 KEY STATEMENTS — JUNE 13, 2026

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — JUNE 13 ASSESSMENT & GUIDANCE

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

CURRENT CIS POSTURE: LEVEL 4 — HIGH ALERT (Maintained)

CIS maintains Level 4 on Saturday June 13. The deal appears imminent — Trump has named Sunday, Pakistan has named 24 hours. But Iran’s Foreign Ministry has explicitly said not Sunday, citing US “hesitation and instability.” Until the electronic signature is transmitted and confirmed by both Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the US State Department, CIS will not downgrade posture in south Lebanon.

The ground war in Lebanon has not paused for the deal process. Five people were killed today. A Lebanese Army soldier was struck by drone fire twice. The Mayor of Ar-Rihan in Jezzine was killed in an airstrike. A Vatican convoy with 25 trucks was stopped by Israeli tanks. Nabatieh is a ghost city with artillery shelling. The IDF 36th Division is still at the gates.

CRITICAL GUIDANCE FOR JUNE 13–14

DO NOT attempt to return to south Lebanon based on deal news. The Vatican’s convoy — the most internationally protected, UN-coordinated, UNIFIL-escorted movement possible — was stopped by IDF tanks, fired on in the rear, and required 12 hours to reach its destination by rerouting. If the Vatican cannot move freely, no private individual should attempt to return.

Wait for the following signals before considering return:

1. ✅ Formal signing of the Islamabad Declaration (both parties confirm)
2. ✅ Hormuz opens as confirmed by CENTCOM and IRGC (not just Trump announcement)
3. ✅ IDF begins verifiable withdrawal from the 55+ occupied villages (not just a statement)
4. ✅ Lebanon’s June 22 Washington talks produce a formal IDF withdrawal framework
5. ✅ UNIFIL confirms safe passage on all main roads in south Lebanon

None of these five conditions are yet met. Do not return.

IF THE DEAL IS SIGNED TOMORROW (SUNDAY JUNE 14):

CIS will issue an emergency bulletin within hours of confirmation. The sequence to watch:

• Hour 0: Electronic signing confirmed by both sides
• Hour 1–6: Hormuz status — does Iran announce passage normalisation immediately?
• Hour 6–24: IDF response — do strikes on Lebanon continue or pause?
• Day 1–3: Hezbollah response — does Qassem issue a statement accepting or rejecting the deal’s Lebanon terms?
• Week 1: Does IDF begin any verifiable movement away from Nabatieh/Arnoun?
• June 22: Washington talks — the critical milestone for Lebanon’s specific path

CIS will grade each of these developments and update posture accordingly.

FOR BUSINESSES AND ORGANISATIONS IN BEIRUT:

The improving diplomatic outlook supports cautious optimism for Beirut-based operations. Oil prices are declining. S&P futures are up. Airport is operating. The practical impact of a deal signing will be most felt in:

• Fuel costs: Hormuz reopening → fuel supply normalises → generator and transport costs fall within 2–4 weeks
• Dollar exchange: Reduced regional risk premium → some stabilisation
• Import supply chain: Pre-war shipping restored within ~30 days per deal terms
• Insurance premiums: War risk premiums on cargo to Lebanon should fall upon confirmed deal

CIS advises clients to plan for a 30–60 day transition period even after deal signing, not an immediate return to pre-war normalcy.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — JUNE 13, 2026

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | info@cissecurity.net | www.cissecurity.net US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 Civil Defence: 125 ISF: 112 National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 (24/7 — confidential) MSF Lebanon: +961-1-744-414 UNIFIL HQ: +39-0444-533-400

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — WAR DAY 104, JUNE 13, 2026

The most important 24 hours of this war begins now.

Trump says the deal will be signed on Sunday. Pakistan says within 24 hours. Iran says not Sunday — but coming days. The Islamabad Declaration is real. Its text is largely agreed. The Strait of Hormuz has 240 ships waiting to pass. Oil is at $87. Wall Street is rebounding.

And in Lebanon, today: a mayor was killed in Jezzine. A soldier was droned twice on a road near Nabatieh. The Vatican’s convoy needed 12 hours and a UN-coordinated reroute past Israeli tanks to deliver food to three isolated villages. Nabatieh is a ghost city. The IDF 36th Division is three kilometres from its gates.

The deal includes Lebanon. But Lebanon is waiting — not for a signature, but for what happens after the signature: whether Hezbollah accepts it, whether Israel pauses its ground campaign, and whether the June 22 Washington talks can produce the withdrawal framework that the signature alone cannot.

A deal in Washington does not end a war in Nabatieh. Not yet.

CIS Security will be with you every step of the way.

+961-3-539900 | info@cissecurity.net | cissecurity.net CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional — Est. 1990

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Saturday June 13 / Sunday June 14, 2026 | WAR DAY 104 Sources: Al Jazeera “Five killed as Israel hits south Lebanon, issues forced displacement orders” (June 13, 2026 — Maarakeh 1 killed Tyre; Ali Badie mayor Ar-Rihan Jezzine killed; Deir al-Zahrani and Kafr Reman 3 killed Nabatieh; Qana Bazouriyeh Rashkananiyeh Shahour Tyre struck; Kfar Tibnit Nabatieh struck; al-Majadel Bayt al-Sayyad al-Kawthariyah Tyre/Sidon struck; Khirbet Selm Ain area; Nabatieh al-Fawqa struck; Deir Qanun al-Nahr as-Sawana Marjayoun struck; Blat Marjayoun bombed late Saturday; army soldier severely injured targeted twice Kfar Reman–Nabatieh road; complicating peace negotiations Washington-Tehran); RFERL “Iran downplays claims of imminent peace agreement” (June 13, 2026 — Baghaei comments June 13 came less than 2 hours after Sharif; “wait and see exact date, will not be tomorrow”; possibility coming days not ruled out; Sharif “closer than ever” “next 24 hours” post; IDF air strikes multiple locations south Lebanon June 13; RFERL closed liveblog); CNBC “Trump says deal to end Iran war signed Sunday Hormuz opens” (June 13, 2026 — Trump Truth Social: “Deal scheduled to get signed tomorrow, Hormuz Strait OPEN TO ALL”; “Nuclear Dust buried deep under powerful sunken granite mountains”; “we will go in and get it at appropriate time when all is calm”; “we look forward to working with Iran and entire Middle East long into future”); NPR “Trump says deal to end Iran war will be signed Sunday as Iran disagrees on timing” (June 13, 2026 — Trump Saturday morning Truth Social; Pakistan “finalisation likely expected in next 24 hours electronic signing immediately after technical talks next week”; Baghaei “it will not be tomorrow” Saturday; “possibility coming days cannot be ruled out”; NBC: 33 ships passed Hormuz Iran permission 24 hours; 240 ships waiting; Fars IRGC Navy; Fars Iran continue to “manage waterway”; Israeli official anonymously: Netanyahu “maintain freedom of action all areas including Lebanon”); Times of Israel “Pakistan claims deal signed within 24 hours Tehran pushes back” (June 13, 2026 — Sharif “closer than ever”; “electronic signing expected within next 24 hours followed by technical level talks next week”; Baghaei “signing of Islamabad memorandum will not be on Sunday”; “coming days cannot be ruled out”; “hesitation of other side” referring to US; Sharif announcement two days after Trump called off third night strikes on Iran; Iran “no new commitments” nuclear weapons current draft); Al Jazeera “Deal between US and Iran less than 24 hours away Pakistan PM says” (June 13, 2026 — Sharif X post “closer to peace deal than ever before”; electronic signing immediately; “confident this historic peace deal will form strong foundation for lasting peace”; Baghaei Tasnim: “will not be tomorrow, possibility coming days not ruled out”); The Hill/AP “US and Iran have agreed to wording of deal” (June 12–13, 2026 — Trump reshared Sharif post without comment; financial compensation $300 billion reconstruction denied by Trump admin; Araghchi urged media hold off leaked details); CBS News live “US-Iran peace deal to be signed Sunday Trump says” (June 13, 2026 — AFP correspondent Nabatieh “almost deserted” artillery overnight and Saturday; Lebanese army soldier severely wounded targeted twice; convoy Apostolic Nuncio led; 25 trucks residents wanting to return home; coordinated UN peacekeepers international committee; halted over an hour longer route reached destination 12 hours; Wall Street rebound S&P futures up; oil sank more than 3%; Dow futures up); Asharq al-Awsat / Al Arabiya “Vatican envoy’s aid convoy stopped by Israeli forces south Lebanon” (June 12–13, 2026 — convoy stopped “face-to-face with several Israeli tanks” near Debl; “several tank and machine gun shots towards rear positions”; convoy led Apostolic Nuncio Paolo Borgia; 25 trucks cars residents wanting return home; route coordinated UN UNIFIL international committee ceasefire 2024; halted over an hour; took longer route; reached destination 12 hours; Gelot Oeuvre d’Orient “completely isolated from rest of country” “deprived of resources most are farmers”); Vatican News “Humanitarian convoy led by Nuncio in Lebanon caught in crossfire” (June 12–13, 2026 — Archbishop Borgia reported incident Vatican media; 45 trucks vehicles departed Beirut early morning; food water medicines fuel; population of Debl Ain Ebel Rmeich; local shops goods farmers livestock; “could not continue along route” coordinated with relevant authorities; “exchange of fire between parties” — IDF and Hezbollah; reached destination after rerouting); Al Jazeera “One killed as Israel hits southern Lebanon air raids artillery” (June 12, 2026 — al-Bayyad village Tyre struck; 1 injured; attacks continue despite ceasefire; transition to June 13 reporting); Al Jazeera “Israel kills 16 in Lebanon UN to probe international law violations” (June 10, 2026 — Hezbollah rejected June 3 conditional truce “complete cessation” Hezbollah fire; did not mention halt Israeli strikes; fighters continued attacks IDF; rockets drones Wednesday; 3,696 killed 11,413 injured; carried forward into June 13 cumulative). All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health and NNA. All diplomatic statements from named officials or sourced reports. Lebanese Army casualty statements from Lebanese Army communiqués. Vatican convoy details from Archbishop Borgia statement to Vatican News and AFP reports. Index compiled: Saturday June 13 / Sunday June 14, 2026 — Beirut time.oldier severely wounded targeted twice; convoy Apostolic Nuncio led; 25 trucks residents wanting to return home; coordinated UN peacekeepers international committee; halted over an hour longer route reached destination 12 hours; Wall Street rebound S&P futures up; oil sank more than 3%; Dow futures up); Asharq al-Awsat / Al Arabiya “Vatican envoy’s aid convoy stopped by Israeli forces south Lebanon” (June 12–13, 2026 — convoy stopped “face-to-face with several Israeli tanks” near Debl; “several tank and machine gun shots towards rear positions”; convoy led Apostolic Nuncio Paolo Borgia; 25 trucks cars residents wanting return home; route coordinated UN UNIFIL international committee ceasefire 2024; halted over an hour; took longer route; reached destination 12 hours; Gelot Oeuvre d’Orient “completely isolated from rest of country” “deprived of resources most are farmers”); Vatican News “Humanitarian convoy led by Nuncio in Lebanon caught in crossfire” (June 12–13, 2026 — Archbishop Borgia reported incident Vatican media; 45 trucks vehicles departed Beirut early morning; food water medicines fuel; population of Debl Ain Ebel Rmeich; local shops goods farmers livestock; “could not continue along route” coordinated with relevant authorities; “exchange of fire between parties” — IDF and Hezbollah; reached destination after rerouting); Al Jazeera “One killed as Israel hits southern Lebanon air raids artillery” (June 12, 2026 — al-Bayyad village Tyre struck; 1 injured; attacks continue despite ceasefire; transition to June 13 reporting); Al Jazeera “Israel kills 16 in Lebanon UN to probe international law violations” (June 10, 2026 — Hezbollah rejected June 3 conditional truce “complete cessation” Hezbollah fire; did not mention halt Israeli strikes; fighters continued attacks IDF; rockets drones Wednesday; 3,696 killed 11,413 injured; carried forward into June 13 cumulative). All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health and NNA. All diplomatic statements from named officials or sourced reports. Lebanese Army casualty statements from Lebanese Army communiqués. Vatican convoy details from Archbishop Borgia statement to Vatican News and AFP reports. Index compiled: Saturday June 13 / Sunday June 14, 2026 — Beirut time.