CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – April 28 2026

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

⚠️ CEASEFIRE DAY 12 | WAR DAY 60 | ISRAEL EXPANDS STRIKES TO EASTERN LEBANON

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 HIGH DANGER OVERALL INDEX: 83/100 TREND: ⬆️ WORSE — Israel expands bombing to eastern Lebanon; Putin pledges full support to Iran; Qassem calls Lebanon-Israel talks “grave sin”; oil $108; IEA: “biggest energy security threat in history”

⛔ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — TUESDAY APRIL 28, 2026

The ceasefire is fraying. Today — War Day 60, Ceasefire Day 12 — the situation has deteriorated significantly on multiple fronts simultaneously.

FOR LEBANON:

• ISRAEL EXPANDS STRIKES TO EASTERN LEBANON — IDF began carrying out strikes in eastern Lebanon on Monday, expanding the scope of its bombing campaign during a ceasefire. At least 14 people killed in Israeli strikes in south Lebanon over the past 24 hours. Artillery shelling, drone surveillance, sporadic rocket fire, and retaliatory strikes persist across the southern frontier.
• HEZBOLLAH SECRETARY-GENERAL QASSEM: DIRECT LEBANON-ISRAEL TALKS ARE A “GRAVE SIN” — Naim Qassem rejected the planned Washington talks as a “grave sin” on Monday, vowing Hezbollah would “not back down.” Israeli Defence Minister Katz: “Qassem is playing with fire.”
• LEBANESE PRESIDENT AOUN RESPONDS DIRECTLY TO QASSEM: “My goal is to reach an end to the state of war with Israel” — openly defying Hezbollah’s most senior leader
• IDF CHIEF ZAMIR: 2026 IS “LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER YEAR OF FIGHTING” FOR ISRAEL on all fronts — the most significant Israeli military assessment of the ceasefire period
• HEZBOLLAH DRONE ATTACKS ON MONDAY: Hezbollah attacked an Israeli tank with a drone; the IDF said a Hezbollah drone exploded near its troops without causing casualties
• ANOTHER IDF SOLDIER KILLED IN SOUTH LEBANON — reported Monday; details emerging. Brings total IDF killed in Lebanon to 17

FOR THE REGION:

• PUTIN MEETS ARAGHCHI IN ST. PETERSBURG; PLEDGES TO “DO EVERYTHING” FOR IRAN — 90+ minute meeting; Putin confirmed Moscow will maintain intelligence ties with Tehran; Russia sharing intelligence with Iran to help target US forces
• IRAN SUBMITS NEW HORMUZ PROPOSAL TO US — offering to reopen Strait in exchange for US lifting naval blockade; decoupling maritime from nuclear issue; Trump “not satisfied”; White House “will not negotiate through the press”
• TRUMP: “NOT SATISFIED” WITH IRAN PROPOSAL — following Situation Room discussion with advisers
• IEA DIRECTOR FATIH BIROL: WORLD IS “FACING THE BIGGEST ENERGY SECURITY THREAT IN HISTORY” — Brent crude at $108.36/barrel (+3% Monday) — three-week high
• IEA: “LARGEST SUPPLY DISRUPTION IN HISTORY OF GLOBAL OIL MARKET” — one billion barrels of production lost; 600-700 million barrels current loss (Vitol CEO)
• PENTAGON CONSIDERING SUSPENDING SPAIN FROM NATO over reluctance to participate in Iran war
• AL JAZEERA LIVE BLOG RUNNING NOW (9 MINUTES AGO) — Iran army “still in war situation”; Gulf leaders meet

📅 KEY EVENTS: APRIL 26 → APRIL 28

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — TUESDAY APRIL 28, 2026

🔴 #1 — ISRAEL EXPANDS STRIKES TO EASTERN LEBANON; 14 KILLED IN 24 HOURS DURING CEASEFIRE

[Just Security Early Edition April 28 — 8 hours ago; CBS — 12 hours ago; Gulf News — 16 hours ago]

The Israeli military began carrying out strikes in eastern Lebanon on Monday, expanding the scope of its bombing campaign during a ceasefire that has failed to fully halt hostilities. This represents the most significant geographic expansion of Israeli operations since the ceasefire took effect on April 17.

At least 14 people were killed following Israeli strikes in south Lebanon. Despite a ceasefire, Israel and Hezbollah have been trading attacks almost daily. Artillery shelling, drone surveillance, sporadic rocket fire and retaliatory strikes have persisted across the southern frontier, keeping thousands of Lebanese civilians displaced and entire towns on edge. For many residents, the so-called cease-fire feels like a diplomatic term detached from daily reality.

The expansion into eastern Lebanon — including the Bekaa Valley corridor — represents a major escalation of Israeli operations during the ceasefire period. The eastern Lebanon strikes follow the discovery of the Hezbollah weapons resupply route from the Bekaa to south Lebanon (21 Grad missiles, 3,000 rounds seized April 25).

🔴 #2 — ANOTHER IDF SOLDIER KILLED IN SOUTH LEBANON (MONDAY); TOTAL NOW 17

[CBS — 12 hours ago]

Israel also reported a soldier killed in combat in south Lebanon. The country maintains that under the terms of the truce, it can act against “planned, imminent or ongoing attacks.” “This means freedom of action not only to respond to attacks … but also to pre-empt immediate threats and even emerging threats,” Netanyahu said.

This death — following Sgt. Fooks killed Sunday — brings the IDF’s total killed in Lebanon to 17 since March 2. Three IDF soldiers have been killed since the ceasefire began April 17 (Bianco, April 13 pre-extension; Fooks, April 26; unnamed soldier, April 27). Hezbollah’s drone and explosive campaign is killing IDF soldiers at approximately one per week during the ceasefire.

🔴 #3 — PUTIN PLEDGES FULL SUPPORT TO IRAN AT 90-MINUTE ST. PETERSBURG MEETING

[CBS — 12 hours ago; Gulf News — 16 hours ago; Just Security — 8 hours ago]

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met yesterday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who pledged to “do everything that serves your interests and the interests of all the people in the region” to ensure peace.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin as “very good.” In a statement, he said “the issue of war and aggression” by the U.S. and Israel was discussed “in detail.” According to the Iranian diplomat, their meeting lasted more than an hour-and-a-half and covered a range of topics, including “bilateral relations and regional issues” involving the conflict. The state-owned Russian news agency RIA said Putin had confirmed to Araghchi that Moscow intended to maintain its intelligence ties with Tehran. U.S., European Union and British officials said early in the war that Moscow was providing Iran with intelligence to help it target American forces in the Middle East.

Putin’s pledge is enormously consequential. Russia is providing Iran with intelligence to target US forces — confirmed by US, EU, and UK officials. Russia is now formally positioning itself as Iran’s diplomatic guarantor and military intelligence partner simultaneously. This makes any US-Iran deal dependent on Russian acquiescence — a geopolitical complication of the highest order.

Araghchi blamed the United States for the failure of peace talks in Pakistan. “The U.S. approaches caused the previous round of negotiations, despite progress, to fail to reach its goals because of the excessive demands,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by Iranian state media.

🔴 #4 — HEZBOLLAH’S QASSEM: LEBANON-ISRAEL TALKS ARE A “GRAVE SIN”; KATZ: “PLAYING WITH FIRE”

[Gulf News — 16 hours ago]

Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem on Monday rejected planned direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel as a “grave sin”, vowing to “not back down”. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that “Qassem is playing with fire”.

Qassem’s framing of the Washington talks as a “grave sin” represents an escalation beyond his earlier demand to “cancel” the talks. “Grave sin” is religious and absolute language — it signals Hezbollah’s deepest possible opposition and suggests that any Lebanese politician who engages in direct talks with Israel may face consequences from Hezbollah beyond political opposition.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, responding to Qassem, said his “goal is to reach an end to the state of war with Israel”. Aoun’s direct public response to Qassem — openly stating his goal is ending the state of war — is an extraordinary moment in Lebanese political history. A Lebanese president publicly contradicting Hezbollah’s secretary-general on the most existential political question in the country. This is the Lebanese state asserting its authority in direct opposition to Hezbollah’s will.

🔴 #5 — IDF CHIEF ZAMIR: 2026 “LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER YEAR OF FIGHTING” FOR ISRAEL

[Gulf News — 16 hours ago]

Israeli army chief of staff Eyal Zamir said 2026 was “likely to be another year of fighting” for Israel on all fronts.

This is the most significant Israeli military assessment of the ceasefire period. The IDF’s chief of staff — speaking during an active ceasefire — is publicly stating that the war in Lebanon is expected to continue through 2026. This directly contradicts the diplomatic framework of a ceasefire leading to a permanent peace agreement. If the IDF chief believes fighting will continue all year, the three-week ceasefire extension is not a path to peace — it is a temporary pause before more fighting.

🔴 #6 — IRAN SUBMITS NEW HORMUZ PROPOSAL; TRUMP “NOT SATISFIED”; WHITE HOUSE REFUSES TO NEGOTIATE VIA PRESS

[CBS — 12 hours ago; Gulf News — 16 hours ago]

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump met with his national security team Monday morning, after Iran proposed a mutual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and holding off on the nuclear conversation. “The proposal was being discussed. I don’t want to get ahead of the president or his national security team,” Leavitt said. “What I will reiterate is that the president’s red lines with respect to Iran have been made very, very clear.”

Following discussions in the White House Situation Room, it emerged that Trump told advisers he “is not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, multiple people briefed on the event told US media.

A White House spokesperson told CBS News on Monday that the Trump administration would “not negotiate through the press.” “These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the U.S. will not negotiate through the press. As the President has said, the United States holds the cards and will only make a deal that puts the American people first, never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Assistant White House Press Secretary Olivia Wales said.

Iran’s new proposal reportedly seeks to decouple the maritime crisis (Hormuz) from the nuclear negotiations — reopening the Strait in exchange for the US ending its naval blockade, while leaving nuclear talks for a separate process. The US has rejected this framework, insisting nuclear commitments are non-negotiable as part of any deal.

🔴 #7 — IEA: WORLD FACING “BIGGEST ENERGY SECURITY THREAT IN HISTORY”; OIL $108.36; 1 BILLION BARRELS LOST

[CFR — 4 days ago; Economic impact Wikipedia — 20 hours ago; CBS — 12 hours ago]

The director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol warned yesterday that the world is “facing the biggest energy security threat in history.”

Oil prices climbed almost 3% Monday as hopes for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran dimmed and energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained extremely constrained. The price of international benchmark Brent Crude was up about $3, or almost 3%, to $108.36 per barrel early Monday morning, its highest price point in three weeks.

The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to what the International Energy Agency has characterized as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said on April 21 that one billion barrels of oil production will be lost because of the war, and that the current loss was between 600 and 700 million barrels.

For Lebanon specifically: Brent at $108.36 means fuel costs remain nearly double pre-war levels. Lebanon’s import-dependent economy — already devastated by the 2019 financial crisis and war destruction — faces continuing economic catastrophe for every additional week Hormuz remains closed.

🔴 #8 — HEZBOLLAH DRONE ATTACKS IDF TANK MONDAY; IDF RESPONDS

[Just Security — 8 hours ago; CBS — 12 hours ago]

Hezbollah said on Monday it had attacked an Israeli tank in southern Lebanon with a drone. The Israeli military said a drone launched by Hezbollah exploded near its troops in southern Lebanon, without causing casualties.

The tank attack — following Sunday’s lethal drone strike killing Sgt. Fooks — confirms Hezbollah’s continued drone campaign against IDF armoured vehicles during the ceasefire. Hezbollah’s drone warfare is proving more effective than its rocket attacks at penetrating IDF defences and reaching armoured assets.

⚠️ #9 — PENTAGON CONSIDERING SUSPENDING SPAIN FROM NATO OVER IRAN WAR REFUSAL

[CFR — 4 days ago]

Senior Pentagon officials are considering responses to NATO countries’ reluctance to participate in the Iran war that include suspending Spain from the alliance, according to an internal Pentagon email seen by Reuters. An unnamed NATO official told the BBC there was no provision for suspending alliance members. The email does not propose withdrawing the United States from NATO or shutting down bases in Europe.

This represents a profound fracture within NATO over the Iran war. Spain — a founding NATO member — has refused to participate militarily in the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The Pentagon’s consideration of suspension (even if legally impossible per NATO’s own rules) signals the depth of the transatlantic rift over the war. Multiple European NATO members have been “reluctant to participate.” The Iran war is dividing the Western alliance in ways not seen since the 2003 Iraq war.

⚠️ #10 — HORMUZ CRISIS: “DUAL BLOCKADE” IN EFFECT; EUROPEAN GAS PRICES DOUBLED; FOOD EMERGENCY IN GULF

[Economic impact Wikipedia — 20 hours ago; Hormuz Wikipedia — 3 hours ago; UK Commons Library — 14 hours ago]

The situation has been described as a “dual blockade”, with the US Navy blockading Iran and Iran blockading the Gulf.

Europe is expected to suffer a second energy crisis and consequent economic crisis, primarily as a result of the suspension of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict coincided with historically low European gas storage levels—estimated at just 30% capacity following a harsh 2025–2026 winter—causing Dutch TTF gas benchmarks to nearly double to over €60/MWh by mid-March.

The maritime blockade triggered a concurrent “grocery supply emergency” across Gulf Cooperation Council states, which rely on the Strait for over 80% of their caloric intake; by mid-March, 70% of the region’s food imports were disrupted, forcing retailers like Lulu Retail to airlift staples, resulting in a 40–120% spike in consumer prices.

The 32 members of the International Energy Agency, including the UK, have also released 400 million barrels of oil in an attempt to lower prices.

For Lebanon: the Gulf food emergency directly affects Lebanon’s food imports. Lebanon already faced food insecurity before the war (WFP warning). The Gulf supply chain disruption has knock-on effects for Lebanese food availability and pricing.

⚠️ #11 — RUSSIA CONFIRMS INTELLIGENCE SHARING WITH IRAN; US/EU/UK OFFICIALS CONFIRM MONTHS OF MOSCOW-TEHRAN COORDINATION

[CBS — 12 hours ago]

The state-owned Russian news agency RIA said Putin had confirmed to Araghchi that Moscow intended to maintain its intelligence ties with Tehran. U.S., European Union and British officials said early in the war that Moscow was providing Iran with intelligence to help it target American forces in the Middle East.

Russia maintaining and publicly confirming intelligence sharing with Iran — targeting US forces — while the US and Russia engage diplomatically (Trump planning to invite Putin to G20) represents an extraordinary geopolitical contradiction. Russia is simultaneously fighting a proxy war against the US in the Middle East while being courted back into the G20 by Trump.

⚠️ #12 — US-IRAN CLASH AT UN NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY REVIEW

[Just Security — 8 hours ago]

The United States and Iran yesterday clashed at a U.N. review of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, with Washington accusing Tehran of violating its obligations and criticizing its appointment to a leadership role, while Iran rejected the claims as politically motivated.

The NPT clash confirms nuclear weapons remain the core unresolved issue between the US and Iran. Iran’s refusal to commit to forgoing a nuclear weapon (confirmed when Islamabad talks broke down) and its rejection of the nuclear element being included in a Hormuz deal — are the fundamental obstacle to any peace agreement. Until this is resolved, no permanent deal is possible.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — APRIL 28, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 68/100 🟡 | Trend: Worsening slightly — Qassem “grave sin” threat; Israel expanding east; ceasefire fraying

Beirut has now gone 20 consecutive days without a direct Israeli airstrike — the longest stretch since March 2. Universities are open. Streets are busy. But the deteriorating security picture — Israel expanding to eastern Lebanon, Hezbollah escalating drone attacks, the ceasefire “feeling like a diplomatic term detached from daily reality” — means Beirut must maintain emergency preparedness. Qassem’s “grave sin” language directed at the Lebanese government is the most significant domestic political threat to Beirut’s stability since the May 7 threat.

President Aoun’s public contradiction of Qassem today is historic — and potentially dangerous. When a Lebanese president publicly defies Hezbollah’s secretary-general on Lebanon’s most existential political issue, Hezbollah must either back down (unprecedented) or escalate its pressure on the government. Watch this space closely.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 66/100 🟡 | Trend: Stable — Still calm; Aoun-Qassem confrontation watched closely

Mount Lebanon is physically calm but politically extremely tense following the Aoun-Qassem confrontation. Lebanese Forces and other Christian political parties are watching closely. The Lebanese state is asserting its authority in direct contradiction of Hezbollah’s will — for the first time in decades.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 65/100 🟡 | Trend: Stable

North Lebanon calm. Displaced families from Yellow Line villages continue to shelter here. No signs of imminent change in their status.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 68/100 🟡 | Trend: Elevated slightly — Masnaa open; Bekaa resupply routes targeted nearby

Masnaa border crossing open. However, Israel’s expansion of strikes into eastern Lebanon brings the operational zone closer to Akkar’s eastern flank. Bekaa resupply route targeting could affect roads passing through northeastern Lebanon.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 82/100 🔴 | Trend: WORSENING — Israel expands strikes to eastern Lebanon; Bekaa resupply route targeted

This is the most significant deterioration for any governorate in the April 26-28 period. The Israeli military began carrying out strikes in eastern Lebanon on Monday, expanding the scope of its bombing campaign. Eastern Lebanon means the Bekaa Valley corridor. Combined with the confirmed Hezbollah weapons resupply route from Bekaa to south Lebanon (seized April 25), the IDF now has an active justification — under its “self-defense” ceasefire clause — to strike Bekaa targets.

THE BEKAA VALLEY’S DANGER LEVEL IS RISING AGAIN. Monitor carefully.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 82/100 🔴 | Trend: WORSENING — Eastern Lebanon strikes; Hezbollah logistics hub targeted

Baalbek-Hermel faces increasing danger. As the confirmed Hezbollah logistics hub from which weapons were being transported to south Lebanon, Baalbek-Hermel is now within the expanded eastern Lebanon strike zone. Israel’s “self-defense” clause provides legal cover under the ceasefire for strikes on Hezbollah supply infrastructure in Baalbek-Hermel.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 88/100 🔴 | Status: 14 KILLED IN 24 HOURS; IDF SOLDIER KILLED MONDAY; DAILY COMBAT

South Lebanon today is the daily killing ground described starkly by Gulf News: artillery shelling, drone surveillance, sporadic rocket fire and retaliatory strikes have persisted across the southern frontier, keeping thousands of Lebanese civilians displaced and entire towns on edge. For many residents, the so-called cease-fire feels like a diplomatic term detached from daily reality.

14 people killed in 24 hours. An IDF soldier killed Monday. Hezbollah drone attacks on tanks. IDF expanding east. The Yellow Line in place. Demolitions ongoing. Bint Jbeil flattened. Over 40,000 homes destroyed. No civilian return to IDF-occupied zones.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 85/100 🔴 | Status: Most heavily struck; IDF operations ongoing; weapons caches in Bint Jbeil

Nabatieh remains at maximum danger within the ceasefire framework. IDF operations in the Bint Jbeil area continue with weapons cache discoveries, structural demolitions, and daily military activity. 14 of the 24-hour killed figure includes Nabatieh district casualties.

📊 UPDATED DASHBOARD — APRIL 28, 2026

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE — APRIL 28, 2026

⚠️ FIVE DEFINING TENSIONS AS THE WAR ENTERS ITS 61ST DAY

1. AOUN VS QASSEM — THE INTERNAL CONFRONTATION THAT WILL DEFINE LEBANON’S FUTURE President Aoun’s public statement that his “goal is to reach an end to the state of war with Israel” — spoken directly in response to Qassem calling those negotiations a “grave sin” — is the most significant internal Lebanese political confrontation in decades.

The Lebanese state is asserting that it has the right and intention to make peace with Israel. Hezbollah is asserting it will not permit this. One of them will prevail. If Aoun prevails — backed by US support and a ceasefire framework — Lebanon has a path to peace. If Qassem prevails — with Hezbollah’s weapons, political representation, and willingness to use force (May 7 threat) — Lebanon’s negotiating track collapses. This confrontation is the central story of Lebanese politics right now.

2. ISRAEL EXPANDING EAST — BEKAA IN THE STRIKE ZONE Israel’s expansion of strikes to eastern Lebanon is the most operationally significant development for Lebanese governorates since the ceasefire began. The IDF is now striking Bekaa Valley targets under its “self-defense” clause. Combined with the confirmed weapons resupply bust and Putin’s public support for Iran (which could encourage Hezbollah), the Bekaa faces its most dangerous period since the active war.

3. PUTIN AS IRAN’S GUARANTOR — A NEW DIPLOMATIC ARCHITECTURE Putin’s pledge to “do everything” for Iran — confirmed intelligence sharing, diplomatic support, and a 90-minute strategic meeting — fundamentally changes the Iran diplomacy calculus. The US must now negotiate with Iran knowing Russia is actively backing Tehran’s position, sharing intelligence against US forces, and potentially offering security guarantees the US cannot match. This makes a US-Iran deal harder, not easier.

4. OIL AT $108 WITH NO DEAL IN SIGHT — ECONOMIC CRISIS DEEPENING The IEA has called this the “biggest energy security threat in history.” One billion barrels of production lost. Brent at $108.36. US gas at $4.30+/gallon. European gas doubled. Gulf food emergency. Lebanon’s economy — already destroyed by war — is absorbing $108 Brent on top of infrastructure destruction. Every additional week adds economic damage that will take years to reverse.

5. IDF CHIEF: “ANOTHER YEAR OF FIGHTING” — WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR LEBANON’S CEASEFIRE? If Zamir is right — if 2026 is indeed “another year of fighting” — then the three-week ceasefire extension is not a path to peace but a brief pause before resumed war. The ceasefire expires May 14. If the Iran deal is not concluded, if Hezbollah does not disarm, if IDF withdrawal is not agreed — all of which are true today — then the May 14 expiry could produce a return to full-scale war at the intensity of Black Wednesday (357 killed in a day).

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — APRIL 28, 2026

⚠️ DETERIORATING SITUATION — ALL LEBANESE MAINTAIN PREPAREDNESS

SOUTH LEBANON: 14 killed in 24 hours. IDF soldier killed Monday. Ceasefire “feels like a diplomatic term detached from daily reality.” Do not return to Yellow Line villages. Do not attempt entry to any area south of IDF positions without Lebanese Army confirmation.

BEKAA VALLEY: Israel has expanded strikes to eastern Lebanon. The Bekaa is now within the active Israeli strike zone. If you are in the Bekaa — particularly Baalbek-Hermel — maintain emergency preparedness and have an evacuation plan ready.

BAALBEK-HERMEL: As the confirmed Hezbollah logistics hub, Baalbek-Hermel faces elevated risk under the expanded eastern Lebanon strike campaign. Leave if you can.

BEIRUT — AOUN VS QASSEM: The public confrontation between Lebanon’s president and Hezbollah’s secretary-general is unprecedented. If Hezbollah moves to apply internal pressure (May 7 scenario), Beirut faces internal security risks in addition to the external military threat. Be aware of any unusual Hezbollah mobilisation. Contact CIS if you observe anything concerning.

CEASEFIRE EXPIRES MAY 14 — 17 DAYS: With Zamir saying “another year of fighting,” the Iran deal stalled, and Hezbollah escalating drone attacks, the May 14 expiry is a serious deadline. Use the next 17 days to:

• Identify your shelter
• Stock 72 hours of supplies
• Register with your embassy
• Have family emergency plans in place

🚗 APRIL 28 TRAVEL STATUS

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — APRIL 28 OPERATIONS

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

🔴 EASTERN LEBANON EXPANSION MONITORING Israel’s expansion of strikes to eastern Lebanon beginning Monday is the most significant operational development since the ceasefire. CIS is monitoring all IDF eastern Lebanon operations, Bekaa Valley targeting, and potential strike trajectories. All Bekaa Valley and Baalbek-Hermel clients should be on elevated alert.

🕊️ AOUN-QASSEM CONFRONTATION MONITORING The historic public confrontation between Lebanon’s president and Hezbollah’s secretary-general is being monitored for potential Hezbollah political or security escalation. CIS will alert all clients immediately if Hezbollah moves toward internal political or security action against the government.

⚡ CEASEFIRE INTEGRITY ASSESSMENT With 14 killed in 24 hours, an IDF soldier killed Monday, eastern Lebanon expansion, and IDF chief saying “another year of fighting” — the ceasefire is deteriorating. CIS provides daily ceasefire integrity assessments to all clients. Contact us for your specific area’s current risk level.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — APRIL 28, 2026

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 | Civil Defence: 125 | ISF: 112 National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 (24/7 — confidential)

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — APRIL 28, 2026

War Day 60. Ceasefire Day 12. Seventeen days until the extended ceasefire expires.

What has happened in the last 48 hours:

• Israel expanded its strikes to eastern Lebanon — the Bekaa Valley is now an active strike zone again
• 14 people were killed in south Lebanon in a single 24-hour period during the ceasefire
• An IDF soldier was killed Monday — the third since the ceasefire began
• Vladimir Putin met Iran’s foreign minister for 90 minutes and pledged Russia would “do everything” for Iran — while confirming Russian intelligence is helping Iran target US forces
• Hezbollah’s secretary-general called direct Lebanon-Israel talks a “grave sin”
• Lebanon’s president publicly responded that his “goal is to reach an end to the state of war with Israel”
• The IDF chief said 2026 is “likely to be another year of fighting”
• The IEA declared the world is facing the “biggest energy security threat in history”
• Oil hit $108.36 — the highest in three weeks
• Iran submitted a new Hormuz proposal; Trump is “not satisfied”

What this means for Lebanon: The ceasefire that was supposed to create space for peace negotiations is instead becoming a framework for continued managed conflict — with expanding geographic scope, rising casualties, and deepening diplomatic impasse. The Aoun-Qassem confrontation is the most important domestic political development since the war began. And the IDF chief’s “another year of fighting” assessment — if accurate — means Lebanon faces months more of this reality.

17 days remain on the ceasefire clock. The next 17 days will determine whether Lebanon gets a path to permanent peace — or a return to Black Wednesday.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Tuesday, April 28, 2026 | WAR DAY 60 | CEASEFIRE DAY 12 Sources: Al Jazeera live blog (9 minutes ago — “Iranian army still in war situation”; Gulf leaders meet); Just Security Early Edition April 28 (8 hours ago — Putin pledges everything; eastern Lebanon strikes; Hezbollah tank drone; US-Iran NPT clash; superyacht Hormuz); CBS News live (12 hours ago — IDF soldier killed Monday; Iran proposal; Trump “not satisfied”; Leavitt; Olivia Wales statement; oil $108.36; Netanyahu freedom of action quote; Araghchi blames US); Gulf News live (16 hours ago — Qassem “grave sin”; Katz “playing with fire”; Aoun responds; Zamir “another year”; 14 killed 24 hrs; ceasefire “detached from reality”;

Araghchi in St Petersburg; Putin quote; Oman Hormuz discussions); Wikipedia 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis (3 hours ago — full Hormuz timeline; dual blockade; $120 Brent peak; 400m IEA barrels; Indian ships; sanctioned tanker); Wikipedia Economic Impact 2026 Iran War (20 hours ago — IEA largest disruption; 1 billion barrels; Vitol CEO; European gas crisis; Gulf food emergency; aviation disruption); Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War (6 hours ago — full war timeline confirmed); UK Commons Library (14 hours ago — ceasefire confirmed late May; UK defensive role);

CFR Daily Brief April 24 (4 days ago — IEA threat; Spain NATO suspension; G20 Putin invite). All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese MoPH. All IDF data from IDF official statements. All diplomatic data from named government officials. Index compiled: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 — 12:00 Beirut time.