CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Monday, Jan 13 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 82/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⚠️ TENSE – DISARMAMENT DEADLINE TENSIONS WITH HEZBOLLAH ANGER

🚨 BREAKING: HEZBOLLAH ANGER OVER AOUN REMARKS – DISARMAMENT DEADLINE PRESSURE

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – TUESDAY, JANUARY 13, 2026:

HEZBOLLAH ‘ANGERED’ BY PRESIDENT: Hezbollah ‘angered’ by Aoun’s remarks on arms, with sources close to the party reporting significant anger among Hezbollah ranks following President Joseph Aoun’s overnight remarks on the group’s weapons. This represents a major escalation in domestic political tensions over disarmament.

US AMBASSADOR DEADLINE EMPHASIS: Lebanon US ambassador says deadline important for north Litani disarmament. U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa said Monday that a “deadline” is “the most important thing” for the issue of removing weapons north of the Litani River, adding significant international pressure for disarmament completion.

PM SALAM’S DETERMINATION: Salam tells Quintet Lebanon determined on north Litani disarmament. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met Monday with the ambassadors of the five-nation group for Lebanon and told them that the country is determined to implement disarmament north of the Litani River.

DISARMAMENT PROGRESS REALITY: Still, Hezbollah has largely been disarmed south of the Litani River, according to Lebanese Army and government officials. Lebanese military officials have said the only places they were unable to operate in removing Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure were near the Israeli-occupied five points.

HEZBOLLAH’S POSITION ON PHASE 2: Analysts believe Hezbollah will not accept the second phase of disarmament as long as Israel continues attacking Lebanon. Naim Qassem said in a January 3, 2026 speech: “To demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and the United States is imposing its will on Lebanon…means that you are not working in Lebanon’s interest but rather in the interest of what Israel wants.”

ONGOING ISRAELI VIOLATIONS: UNIFIL has documented more than 10,000 ceasefire violations by Israel, including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations since the November 2024 ceasefire. The UN reported in November that at least 127 civilians, including children, have been killed in Lebanon since the ceasefire took effect.

CONTINUED STRIKES: Israel’s military has launched attacks on what it described as Hezbollah and Hamas “targets” in Lebanon after issuing evacuation orders for four villages. Latest attacks include a drone strike on a car in the southern village of Braikeh on Monday that wounded two people.

TRUMP-NETANYAHU MEETING IMPACT: Beirut-based security analyst Ali Rizk noted “There had been reports that Israel got a green light to escalate against Hezbollah” following last week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

GOVERNMENTAL MEETING TODAY: The Lebanese government is expected to meet on Tuesday to discuss the army’s progress in disarming Hezbollah, which remains powerful despite heavy losses it sustained at the hands of Israel, including the killing of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 76/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Domestic Political Crisis. The capital faces its most serious domestic political crisis in months as Hezbollah sources report significant anger within the party over President Aoun’s overnight remarks on weapons. This creates unprecedented tension between the presidency and Hezbollah during the critical disarmament deadline period.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met yesterday with the Quintet ambassadors (US, France, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia) and affirmed Lebanon’s determination to implement disarmament north of the Litani. This governmental commitment comes amid Hezbollah anger, creating a dangerous political confrontation.

Lebanon is navigating multiple concurrent challenges amidst signs of tentative stability. After a two-year political vacuum, the country has a new president, Joseph Aoun, and a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, which won a parliamentary confidence vote in February 2025.

US Ambassador Michel Issa’s Monday statement that a “deadline” is “the most important thing” for north Litani disarmament adds significant international pressure at this critical moment. Today’s government meeting to discuss the Lebanese Army’s disarmament progress occurs under intense domestic and international scrutiny.

The political crisis over presidential remarks creates uncertainty about governmental stability while the cabinet addresses disarmament implementation. Enhanced security around government buildings reflects both the domestic political tensions and ongoing regional security concerns.

Key Factor: Hezbollah anger over presidential arms remarks creating domestic political crisis while government meets today to discuss disarmament progress under intense international deadline pressure.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 73/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Political Tension Spillover. The governorate experiences heightened tension from the domestic political crisis over President Aoun’s weapons remarks and Hezbollah’s reported anger. The region serves as bellwether for broader political stability during this critical disarmament deadline period.

Business operations continue with awareness of domestic political tensions that could escalate if the Hezbollah-government confrontation intensifies. The region’s diverse political constituencies make it sensitive to sectarian and political tensions over disarmament issues.

Infrastructure improvements continue under governmental authority, though the domestic political crisis over weapons remarks creates uncertainty about continued stability and reform implementation.

Key Factor: Domestic political tensions from Hezbollah anger affecting regional stability while business confidence depends on peaceful resolution of disarmament confrontation.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 75/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Regional Concerns. Tripoli and surrounding areas monitor domestic political crisis over disarmament with concern, as escalation could affect all regions. The governorate’s economic activities depend on overall national stability during this tense period.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable following Assad regime fall in December 2024, with new Syrian government establishing different relationship patterns. Economic conditions show gradual improvement but remain vulnerable to domestic political crisis escalation.

Key Factor: Regional economic stability dependent on peaceful resolution of disarmament political crisis while new Syrian dynamics create additional considerations.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 76/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Border Security Focus. The Syrian border situation remains stable with new Syrian government, though domestic political crisis over disarmament creates additional monitoring requirements. Lebanese Armed Forces operations continue despite political tensions.

Cross-border dynamics transformed following December 2024 Assad fall, with an estimated 400,000 Syrian refugees returning from Lebanon since the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar Assad in December 2024.

Key Factor: Border security maintained during domestic political crisis while massive Syrian refugee return creates demographic shifts and resource implications.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Political Crisis Epicenter. The valley experiences maximum political tension as traditional Hezbollah stronghold during the domestic crisis over President Aoun’s weapons remarks. The region’s significance to disarmament implementation makes it focal point for current confrontation.

Agricultural operations continue but with heightened awareness of political tensions that could escalate. Recent Israeli evacuation orders and strikes on Beqaa villages (Hammara and Ain el-Tineh) demonstrate ongoing military pressure during disarmament deadline period.

The region’s strategic importance in disarmament implementation creates ongoing tension as Hezbollah rejects second phase while government affirms determination to implement north Litani disarmament.

Key Factor: Epicenter of disarmament political crisis with Hezbollah anger over presidential remarks creating potential for escalation in traditional stronghold region.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Maximum Political Tension. This region faces maximum political crisis levels as center of Hezbollah support during confrontation over President Aoun’s weapons remarks. The area’s significance to disarmament resistance makes it critical flashpoint.

Recent Israeli evacuation orders for Hammara and other eastern Lebanon villages demonstrate continued military pressure during domestic political crisis. Infrastructure projects face uncertainty pending resolution of disarmament political confrontation.

Key Factor: Maximum political tension as Hezbollah stronghold during domestic crisis over presidential weapons remarks while ongoing Israeli military pressure compounds challenges.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 70/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Monitoring Required. The coastal governorate maintains better conditions but monitors domestic political crisis with concern. The region’s diverse political composition makes it sensitive to sectarian tensions over disarmament.

Tourism and business activities continue but with awareness that escalation of Hezbollah-government confrontation could affect overall stability and economic confidence.

Key Factor: Relative stability maintained while monitoring domestic political crisis over disarmament with concern for potential escalation impact.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 87/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Military and Political Zone. The south experiences dual pressures from ongoing Israeli violations and domestic political crisis over disarmament. Lebanese military officials report successful disarmament south of Litani except near Israeli-occupied five points.

Recent Israeli strikes continue despite ceasefire, with Monday’s drone attack in Braikeh wounding two people. Israel issued evacuation orders for southern villages (Kfar Hatta and Annan) before conducting strikes, demonstrating ongoing military operations during political crisis period.

UNIFIL’s documentation of over 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations creates impossible environment for peaceful disarmament implementation. The Lebanese Army operates under extreme pressure implementing disarmament while facing continued Israeli military operations.

Key Factor: Dual crisis from ongoing Israeli violations and domestic political tensions over disarmament creating impossible operational environment for Lebanese Army.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Military and Political Pressures. The governorate faces ongoing Israeli military operations while domestic political crisis over disarmament adds additional instability. Recent strikes and evacuation orders demonstrate continued military pressure.

Infrastructure restoration continues but faces disruption from ongoing violations and domestic political uncertainty over disarmament implementation timeline and Hezbollah’s resistance to second phase.

Key Factor: Ongoing military violations combined with domestic political crisis creating compound challenges for reconstruction and stability.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – DOMESTIC CRISIS FOCUS

🔥 CURRENT HIGH-RISK AREAS:

Priority Level 1 – Domestic Political Crisis Zones:

1. Beqaa Valley – Hezbollah stronghold during anger over presidential weapons remarks
2. Baalbek-Hermel – Maximum tension as center of disarmament resistance
3. Southern Lebanon Border – Ongoing Israeli violations during political crisis
4. Government Buildings Beirut – Cabinet meeting today on disarmament progress
5. Dahiyeh (Beirut Southern Suburbs) – Hezbollah areas during domestic confrontation

Priority Level 2 – Military Operations Areas: 6. Braikeh – Monday drone strike wounding two people 7. Kfar Hatta and Annan – Evacuation orders and recent strikes 8. Hammara and Ain el-Tineh – Beqaa villages under evacuation orders 9. Israeli-Occupied Five Points – Areas where LAF unable to operate 10. All UNIFIL Positions – Peacekeepers monitoring 10,000+ violations

✅ RELATIVELY STABLE ZONES (WITH VIGILANCE):

Maintained Stability Areas:

• Northern Coastal Areas – Distance from military operations and political crisis centers
• Mount Lebanon Residential Areas – Monitoring domestic crisis developments
• Central Beirut Business District – Governmental functionality maintained
• Syrian Border Areas – Stable following Assad regime change

⚠️ CRITICAL MONITORING – TODAY’S DEVELOPMENTS:

Domestic Political Crisis:

• Hezbollah anger over President Aoun’s weapons remarks
• Cabinet meeting today to discuss disarmament progress
• US Ambassador deadline pressure
• PM Salam’s Quintet commitment
• Potential for escalation if confrontation intensifies

Military Situation:

• Ongoing Israeli violations (10,000+ documented)
• Recent strikes despite ceasefire
• Evacuation orders and operations continuing
• 127+ civilians killed since November 2024 ceasefire

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – DOMESTIC CRISIS PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

DOMESTIC POLITICAL CRISIS: The Hezbollah anger over President Aoun’s weapons remarks creates Lebanon’s most serious domestic political crisis in months, occurring during critical disarmament deadline pressure from US Ambassador and international community.

CURRENT SITUATION:

• Presidential-Hezbollah Tension: Sources report significant anger within Hezbollah over arms remarks
• Government Meeting Today: Cabinet discusses LAF disarmament progress
• International Pressure: US Ambassador emphasizes deadline importance
• PM Commitment: Salam affirms determination to Quintet ambassadors
• Ongoing Violations: 10,000+ Israeli ceasefire breaches documented

PRECAUTIONS DURING CRISIS:

• Monitor domestic political developments closely
• Avoid areas of potential Hezbollah-government confrontation
• Prepare for possible escalation of political tensions
• Stay informed on today’s cabinet meeting outcomes
• Maintain awareness of ongoing Israeli military operations

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

DOMESTIC CRISIS IMPACT:

• Political Uncertainty: Hezbollah anger creates instability concerns
• Deadline Pressure: International focus on disarmament timeline
• Government Determination: PM commitment to implementation
• Regional Operations: Beqaa and South facing compound pressures
• Planning Challenges: Political crisis affecting business confidence

OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Monitor today’s government meeting outcomes carefully
• Assess domestic political crisis impact on operations
• Maintain contingency plans for potential escalation
• Coordinate with security services during tense period
• Prepare for possible disruptions from political confrontation

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY:

CURRENT TRAVEL STATUS: Domestic political crisis over disarmament combined with ongoing Israeli violations creates elevated security concerns requiring enhanced caution and monitoring.

TRAVEL CONSIDERATIONS:

• Southern Areas: Ongoing military operations with recent strikes
• Beqaa Valley: Political tension as Hezbollah stronghold during crisis
• Beirut Government District: Cabinet meeting today with enhanced security
• Border Areas: Stable following Syrian government changes
• General Movement: Monitor developments from today’s crucial meeting

📊 DOMESTIC POLITICAL CRISIS ANALYSIS

Today’s Crisis Level: Major Domestic Political Confrontation
Governmental Function: Cabinet meeting today on disarmament amid Hezbollah anger
International Pressure: US Ambassador deadline emphasis, Quintet engagement
Military Situation: 10,000+ Israeli violations complicating implementation

Critical Analysis: Lebanon faces its most serious domestic political crisis in months as sources report significant Hezbollah anger over President Joseph Aoun’s overnight remarks on weapons. This confrontation occurs during critical pressure for disarmament deadline compliance.

US Ambassador Michel Issa’s Monday statement emphasizing that a “deadline” is “the most important thing” for north Litani disarmament adds international urgency. PM Nawaf Salam’s meeting with Quintet ambassadors affirming Lebanon’s determination to implement disarmament demonstrates governmental commitment despite domestic opposition.

Today’s government meeting to discuss the Lebanese Army’s disarmament progress occurs under extreme pressure from multiple directions: Hezbollah anger domestically, international deadline pressure externally, and ongoing Israeli violations creating impossible implementation environment.

The fundamental tension remains: analysts believe Hezbollah will not accept the second phase of disarmament as long as Israel continues attacking Lebanon. Naim Qassem’s January 3 speech emphasized this position: “To demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression…means that you are not working in Lebanon’s interest but rather in the interest of what Israel wants.”

However, Lebanese military officials report that Hezbollah has largely been disarmed south of the Litani River, with the only areas where LAF was unable to operate being near the Israeli-occupied five points. This demonstrates significant progress while highlighting remaining challenges.

UNIFIL’s documentation of over 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations since November 2024, including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations, creates the impossible environment where Lebanon faces international pressure for disarmament while experiencing continued attacks justifying Hezbollah’s resistance argument.

Historical Context: The end of 2025 marked the deadline for the first phase of disarming Hezbollah, but the group says it will not give up its weapons. In August 2025, the Lebanese government approved a plan to have the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) disarm Hezbollah.

Today’s Critical Meeting: The Lebanese government meeting today to discuss disarmament progress occurs at this critical juncture, with Hezbollah anger over presidential remarks, international deadline pressure, and ongoing Israeli violations all converging. The outcome will significantly impact Lebanon’s domestic stability and international relations.

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🏛️ DOMESTIC POLITICAL CRISIS PROFESSIONAL PROTECTION

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DOMESTIC CRISIS SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

Political Tension Security:

• Governmental Protection: Enhanced security during today’s critical cabinet meeting on disarmament
• Diplomatic Security: Protection for international engagement during domestic crisis
• Business Continuity: Professional security enabling operations during political confrontation
• Monitoring Services: Real-time assessment of domestic political crisis developments

Confrontation Period Operations:

• Hezbollah Area Security: Professional operations in regions experiencing political tensions
• Government District Protection: Enhanced security around official buildings during crisis
• Political Event Security: Protection during this volatile domestic confrontation period
• Emergency Response: Readiness for potential escalation of political tensions

Compound Crisis Management:

• Domestic-External Coordination: Security during dual pressure from internal politics and external violations
• Deadline Period Protection: Professional services during critical disarmament timeline pressure
• Regional Security: Operations in areas facing both political and military pressures
• Business Protection: Comprehensive security during uncertainty affecting economic confidence

📞 DOMESTIC CRISIS COORDINATION SERVICES

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GOVERNMENTAL SECURITY: Enhanced protection for today’s critical cabinet meeting
BUSINESS CONTINUITY: Professional services enabling operations during political crisis
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: Immediate capabilities for potential escalation scenarios

Specialized Crisis Centers:

• Government Protection Center: Security for official meetings during domestic crisis
• Political Monitoring Division: Real-time assessment of Hezbollah-government tensions
• Business Security Services: Professional protection during political uncertainty
• Emergency Coordination: Response capabilities for potential confrontation escalation

During Lebanon’s domestic political crisis over disarmament with Hezbollah anger and governmental deadline pressure, CIS Security’s professional services provide comprehensive protection enabling continued operations, governmental functionality, and business activities under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership during this critical confrontation period.

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CIS Security Domestic Crisis Services:

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• Governmental Meeting Protection – Enhanced security for today’s critical cabinet discussion on LAF progress
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• Deadline Pressure Security – Professional services during international disarmament timeline pressure
• Regional Operations – Security in areas facing both political tensions and military operations
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